India's gold consumption in 2025 is set to fall to a five-year low, as record-high prices are denting jewellery purchases, overshadowing a slight boost in investment demand, the World Gold Council said on Thursday.
Gold demand in the world's second-biggest consumer of the precious metal could stand between 600 metric tons and 700 metric tons in 2025, the lowest since 2020, and down from last year's 802.8 tons, Sachin Jain, CEO of WGC's Indian operations, told Reuters.
Demand could reach 700 tons if prices stabilise, but a 10%–15% price rise driven by geopolitical factors may pull it down to the lower end of the range, he said.
Local gold prices, which hit a record high of Rs 101,078 per 10 grams in June, have risen 28% so far in 2025, after a 21% gain in 2024.
India's gold consumption in the April-to-June quarter fell 10% from a year ago to 134.9 tons, as jewellery demand fell 17% while investment demand rose 7% in the quarter, the WGC said.
Demand in the September quarter is expected to be lower than last year's 248.3 tons, when New Delhi's move to reduce import duties boosted purchases, Jain said.
The precious metal has been outperforming other asset classes, drawing investors who favour both physical gold and gold exchange traded funds, he said.
"Gold ETFs in India are at a very important cusp for growth, and as India becomes more digitised, they are gaining popularity and prominence," he said.
Gold ETFs in India saw inflows surge ten-fold month-on-month to 20.81 billion rupees ($237.5 million) in June, hitting a five-month high, data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India showed earlier this month.
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