Cheap Chinese steel likely to curb Indian exports next year, says SteelMint

Cheaper Chinese exports will continue to threaten Indian steel makers by limiting their shipments to the European Union in 2024, away from traditional buyers Vietnam and the Middle East, if subdued demand situation lingers, according to market research firm SteelMint.

"Mills may have to raise export allocations. However, China's presence in the export markets may well remain at the level of around 8 million tonnes per month if government policies and stimulus fail to trigger a recovery in domestic demand," SteelMint said.

India's steel exports for FY2022-23 stood at 6.72 million tonnes (mt), down about 50 percent year-on-year, while the imports scaled a three-year high, according to a report from global analytics firm S&P in April. Excess Chinese dumping made Indian steel uncompetitive in international markets, hurting the margins of players such as Tata Steel and JSW Steel.

"If demand does not increase at the same pace in CY24, then there will be surplus supplies and domestic steel prices may come under further pressure, especially because inventories in the system are high," SteelMint added.