Major global and Indian brokerages remain optimistic on Vedanta Ltd's performance for FY26, citing stronger LME pricing trends, cost discipline, deleveraging, and a resilient aluminium business among the key growth drivers.
These firms have also taken note of the several growth projects scheduled for commissioning or completion in the next few quarters.
JP Morgan noted that Vedanta's first quarter consolidated EBITDA was largely in line with estimates, with key segments such as aluminium, oil and gas, and power faring better than its expectations, leading to an overall segmental EBITDA beat.
On the earnings trajectory for the current and next fiscal, the firm expects various ongoing initiatives at Vedanta to aid growth. "Vedanta's capacity expansion journey in the aluminium business as well as vertical integration should bring cost advantages. LME prices have also bottomed out and should continue to move higher into FY26-27, likely aiding earnings growth." Echoing similar views on LME prices and its potential benefit, Citi Research cited that Vedanta's parent (Vedanta Resources) leverage is at comfortable levels. It listed potential upside in medium-term aluminium LME prices, lower cost, and the demerger as another positive for Vedanta, while adding that aluminium globally has a limited supply growth.
Mumbai-based Nuvama Institutional Equities expects Vedanta to deliver quarter-on-quarter EBITDA growth in Q2.
"Q2FY26 EBITDA is likely to increase 10 per cent-plus quarter-on-quarter on the back of higher prices and lower aluminium cost of production. Major aluminium projects are likely to be commissioned in Q2FY26. We reckon net debt/EBITDA ex-Hindustan Zinc shall fall to 1.7x by FY26-end, compared to 2.7x in FY25. Demerger of the business is likely to be concluded in Q4FY26," the firm said in its report.
The brokerage expects Vedanta's all major projects except coal blocks to be likely commissioned in the current fiscal, providing volume growth and cost reduction visibility for the company.
UK-based Investec stated in its post-earnings report that Vedanta is a key beneficiary of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. Other near-term positives listed by the firm include declining alumina prices and the company offering attractive yields. The firm has retained its buy recommendation on Vedanta.
Research firms like Kotak Institutional Equities and IIFL have cited factors like cost efficiencies and deleveraging at both Vedanta Ltd and its parent Vedanta Resources as beneficial factors.
Vedanta's adjusted profit after tax jumped 13 per cent year-on-year to Rs 5,000 crore. The company clocked its highest-ever first-quarter EBITDA of Rs 10,746 crore, which was up 5 per cent year-on-year.
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