Voters deliver key messages in assembly polls, but will the opposition pay heed?

PM Modi’s Popularity

After BJP’s defeat in Himachal Pradesh in 2022 and in Karnataka this May, the opposition tried to build a narrative that Modi magic and the PM’s ability to pull votes has declined significantly. But BJP’s resounding victory when it contested these assembly elections without projecting anyone as party’s CM candidate in any state, with Modi being the face of the party, clearly indicates, voter’s choice of BJP as the ruling party was largely influenced by the Modi factor.

A high level of satisfaction with the central government also tilted votes in favour of the BJP. In MP, 67 percent voters were satisfied with the central government, in Rajasthan 79 percent were satisfied with central government’s work while in Chhattisgarh 80 percent were satisfied with the work done by the central government in varying degrees.

Not that other leaders of BJP did not campaign, many of them campaigned aggressively including their state leaders, but BJP’s campaign was so centralised on PM Modi that BJP even came up with the line “MP ke mann me Modi hai, Modi ke mann me MP hai”. Evidence from the post-poll surveys conducted by Lokniti-CSDS also indicate that nearly 20 percent of those who voted for the BJP, voted only in the name of Narendra Modi.

The victory of the Congress during the 2018 assembly election in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh had raised hopes for Congress of it putting up a challenge to the BJP in 2019. But BJP’s massive victories not only in these three states but in many other states shattered Congress’s hopes. Congress kept losing election after election which were held after the 2019 polls.

Concern Over Unemployment, Inflation

The recent victories in Himachal and Karnataka had again raised Congress’s hopes even in the Hindi heartland states, being the ruling party in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and blaming the BJP of stealing their government in MP. There was the hope of a Congress revival as one gets a clear indication of people’s unhappiness and concern about rising prices and increasing unemployment.

The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey in all the states which went to polls during the last couple of years clearly indicate that between 70-80 percent voters in different states are worried about increasing prices and about 60-70 percent voters are also concerned about increasing unemployment. In Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan 76 percent, 80 percent and 72 percent respectively believed that prices have increased.

About unemployment, 40 percent in Rajasthan, 44 percent in MP and 40 percent in Chhattisgarh  believed that unemployment has increased. Despite this in most of the states barring a few (HP and Karnataka being the latest), the BJP got re-elected, but one can’t deny the fact that growing unemployment and rising prices is a key concern for voters.

It was keenly watched whether Congress would be able to make this an issue in these elections and whether voters would show their concern on these issues and express it while casting their vote. While that issue lingers, what has happened is the wiping out of Congress from North India. In the North, Congress is in power only in HP and a junior coalition partner in Jharkhand and Bihar.

There were conflicting opinions about what may be the electoral verdict in MP with the sitting Chief Minister facing 18 years of anti-incumbency. Different meanings are being attached to BJP fielding about 10 MPs including some Union Ministers as candidates from various assembly constituencies.

The Pre-Poll survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS in late October did reveal that there is no anti-incumbency as 63 percent voters liked the work done by the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government and Chouhan’s popularity rating was at 39 percent and Kamal Nath’s at 32 percent.

The Women Vote

Shivraj Singh Chouhan remained popular despite being somewhat sidelined by the party during the early days of campaigning. While there are factors which contributed to Chouhan’ s popularity, his massive popularity amongst women voters was largely due to the much talked about Ladli Behna Scheme.

Women voters have contributed to BJP’s victory in all these three states. The female turnout was 74 percent in Rajasthan at par with male turnout; 76 percent in MP, two percentage points less compared to male turnout; 78 percent in Chhattisgarh, 3 percentage points more compared to male turnout; and in Telangana women turnout was 72 percent, just 1 percentage point more compared to male turnout.

Not only women came out in large numbers, but they also voted for the BJP in slightly bigger numbers (between 4-6 percentage points) compared to male voters, which helped BJP in taking a decisive lead over the Congress in the three states.

Welfare Alone Not Enough

The last important message which emerges from the verdict is that welfare schemes play a more important role now compared to the past, but the schemes alone can’t win elections for a party. A party needs “scheme-plus” to win elections. The big victory of BJP in MP is largely credited to the Ladli Behna Scheme, but there were equally popular schemes of the Congress government in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and of the BRS government in Telangana. But still Congress lost election both in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and BRS got defeated in Telangana.

The Rythu Bandhu scheme of KCR government, the urban employment guarantee and Chiranjeev Schemes of Gehlot government, and Rajiv Gandhi Bhumi Kisaan Naya Yojana, Mukhya Mantri Haat Bazar scheme of Bhupesh Baghel government were popular in their respective states but these three governments lost elections. More than the launching of the schemes, implementation of the schemes is far more important.

People had more faith in the promises made by the Prime Minister in states of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan compared to benefits being actually given to the people through schemes. Similarly, the voters in Telangana had more faith in what Congress promised compared to the benefits people were receiving from the schemes of the BRS government. The faith of the voters in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh was more in BJP’s promise than the Congress government’s delivery and that is why now Prime Minister Narendra Modi often refers to “Modi ke Guarantee matlab Guarantee kee Guarantee”.      

This defeat certainly leaves a demoralising impact on the parties in the INDIA bloc. But if they still want to put up a challenge for BJP in 2024, they need to go to the voters with a positive agenda. An aggressive negative campaign against the BJP and against Prime Minister Narendra Modi can only create a sensation, but that has its limitations. It is not sufficient to beat the formidable BJP in the Hindi heartland.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.