Telangana Elections 2023: A serial defector sums up BJP and Congress’s wildly fluctuating fortunes

It isn’t lost on many that KCR has all but dropped his third front plans and is no more ballistic on BJP these days and could now be a friend in need from outside for the NDA. The fact that the probe agencies are no longer hot on the trail of his daughter K Kavitha, whose name cropped up in Delhi liquor scam, has also been duly taken note of in the state.

BJP’s Dizzying Rise And A Weathervane

Rajagopal Reddy had shot into the limelight last year when he resigned from the assembly as a Congress lawmaker, defected to BJP, and forced a bypoll in Munugode, which has subsequently earned notoriety as perhaps the most expensive assembly election in Indian history. Though Munugode was his pocket borough, Reddy lost face after BRS turned the election into a prestige battle and snatched the seat.

Reddy had then said he lost hope in the Congress as a credible opposition to unseat KCR, and this was the trigger for his defection. His MP-brother Komatireddy Venkata Reddy of the Congress, representing the Bhongir Lok Sabha constitutency, had at that time sent out visible feelers on the prospects of his crossing over to the BJP along with his brother.

Rajagopal Reddy’s BJP entry and exit marks two different phases of the saffron party in Telangana. His entry came amid a virtual BJP juggernaut that propelled it not just as the main challenger to the BRS by 2022 but even a strong claimant for power in the event of the 2023 assembly elections.

The perception got strengthened step-by-step as BJP built on its wins in four Lok Sabha seats in 2019, followed by its victory in the Dubbak and Huzurabad bypolls, and substantial gains in the GHMC (Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation) polls. With the Munugode bypolls that were to follow in the wake of Rajagopal Reddy’s resignation from Congress, BJP was looking to deliver a sort of knockout punch to BRS.

But the BRS troika of K Chandrashekar Rao, KT Rama Rao and T Harish Rao took up the challenge and matched the BJP in resources and rhetoric, which finally culminated in an embarrassing 10,000 vote defeat for Reddy and the BJP. Ironically, Congress was nowhere in the picture, finishing a distant third in the bypoll.

Congress’s Astonishing Revival

The next setback for the BJP was the impressive Congress victory in neighbouring Karnataka in May 2023. The Hyderabad-Karnataka region, which was earlier under Nizam rule, enjoys close social, cultural and economic ties to Telangana.

Suddenly, Congress received a second wind, its cadres in Telangana recovered their self-confidence, and this was accompanied by the gradual loss in morale among the BJP leaders and cadres amid stiff infighting that accompanied the influx of too many leaders from other parties into the saffron outfit.

Reddy’s exit now, however, is clearly marking the fall of saffron politics in the state. It is also helping Congress in the perception battle before the elections of being a strong opposition to the BRS.

The rank-and-file of the BJP have realised that it’s not easy to beat KCR in the state elections and that it’s better to seek their fortunes in the Parliament elections with the

help of the Modi image. That’s the reason why, a host of senior leaders like state BJP president and Union minister Kishan Reddy and another Congress turncoat DK Aruna wanted to stay away from the state elections.

BJP’s Goal: Preserving 2019 Lok Sabha Gains

The downswing has apparently forced the BJP top brass into a situation where it is left with choosing who its main rival should be. In this calculus the KCR-led BRS becomes the “lesser evil”, given that Congress is the BJP’s national rival. The BJP has therefore begun to view KCR as a sort of a rain cheque nationally, to be encashed when a need arises, for instance if the Lok Sabha elections turn more difficult than expected.

As a consequence, there has been a gradual softening of the BJP stand towards KCR that’s evident with Kavitha getting off the hook and the replacing of Bandi Sanjay, an anti-KCR firebrand leader, with the milder G Kishan Reddy as the Telangana party’s president.

The soft corner to BRS has belied the hopes of turncoats who had joined the BJP with an axe to grind against KCR.  The possibility of more turncoats in the BJP with a Congress background

like Gaddam Vivek, Konda Vishweshwar Reddy and even DK Aruna following in the footsteps of Rajagopal Reddy cannot be ruled out.

Such a “ghar wapsi” by the former Congress leaders would be an embarrassment and the BJP top leadership has begun to appease the defectors by doling out plum party positions at the expense of its hardcore karyakartas. Interestingly, Rajagopal Reddy deserted the party even after he was made chairman of the state BJP screening committee, which is entrusted with vetting credentials of ticket aspirants.

While BJP has clearly benefited in many states by encouraging defections because this weakens the affected party, K Rajagopal Reddy’s flight could be a signal that the gains aren’t long lasting enough.

Gali Nagaraja is a senior journalist, formerly associated with The Hindu, The Times of India, and Hindustan Times for over three decades. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.