In a dramatic shift of political tides, Telangana, the youngest state of India, witnessed a sweeping triumph for the Indian National Congress, paving the way for the establishment of a new Congress-led government.
The resurgence of the Grand Old Party in the state, evident in the unfolding trends of the assembly election results, is attributed not only to the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment but also to the Congress's ability to bridge internal differences and present a united front. Conversely, the BRS's gamble of fielding most of its sitting MLAs failed to resonate with voters.
Congress Avenges 2014, 2018 Defeats
The Congress revival was kickstarted by Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra a year ago. The party's victory in Karnataka in May, subsequently, bolstered morale and reinvigorated the rank and file. While the BJY drew unexpectedly large crowds, the victory in Karnataka’s assembly elections gave confidence to the workers that a victory is possible in Telangana too. The ten-year anti-incumbency, combined with Congress' six 'guarantees,' particularly appealing to women and youth, garnered substantial support from government employees and unemployed youth who yearned for positive changes.
Until 2009, the Indian National Congress enjoyed a formidable presence in the region. However, the political landscape took a drastic turn with the sudden demise in 2009 of Congress veteran YS Rajasekhara Reddy, the influential leader of undivided Andhra Pradesh. The statehood agitation that began helped BRS (then TRS) grow in strength, while the Congress leaked weak and vacillating. Even its claim to granting statehood to Telangana found little traction. The shortsighted politics of aligning with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP further weakened its political strength in Telangana and contributed to its defeat in 2018.
BRS's big jolt has called into question its reliance on the charisma of K Chandrashekar Rao, which has proved ineffective. The Telangana sentiment that favoured the incumbent party in the previous two elections has waned, with the electorate seeking a change. Congress also went to town on the corruption charges against many BRS MLAs and the perceived single family rule.
BJP Here To Stay
Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) performed admirably, securing victories not only in urban seats in the Hyderabad region but also making inroads into the tribal pockets of the North's agency regions. Despite sliding to the third position after being projected as the main rival to BRS, the BJP, however, increased its tally substantially, that is seen as a big gain for the saffron party.
However, its appeal to the backward classes failed to translate into votes. A change in leadership earlier, from Bandi Sanjay Kumar, a firebrand OBC leader, to G Kishan Reddy, appeared to have impacted its prospects.
All eyes are now on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Can BJP trump BRS and become the primary challenger to Congress? If that happens, it will be a tectonic shift in Telangana politics.
BRS’s Future
Congress not only solidified its presence in Eastern Telangana but also staged a remarkable turnaround in some of the traditional BRS strongholds. The GOP has swept districts like Khammam and Nalgonda. While securing many bellwether seats, Congress faced setbacks in about ten constituencies where the BJP split the anti-incumbency vote, inadvertently favouring BRS candidates.
BRS’s decline could also be a pivotal shift in political dynamics disrupting the established trend of regional parties maintaining control in the south. This is also the first time Congress has reclaimed a state from a regional party in a long time.
Beyond the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiment against the TRS government, the Congress victory was rooted in factors such as dissatisfaction with governance and economic issues. Its impact on regional politics is palpable, potentially prompting Chief Minister KCR's retirement. This would usher in a new leadership in BRS with his KT Rama Rao, daughter K Kavitha, and nephew T Harish Rao, positioning themselves as leading contenders to steer the party forward.
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