The 2023 Assembly elections have been dubbed the 'semi-finals' for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls by many pundits. The final results of counting in all five states, except for Mizoram—whose vote counting was deferred by a day—will be declared by Sunday evening. However, an analysis of previous data shows that while there were historical similarities in voter trends between state and Lok Sabha elections, it has become increasingly divergent, especially since the Narendra Modi-led BJP came into power at the Centre.
As it stands, the BJP has a comfortable lead in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh—unseating the incumbent Congress governments in the former two, and maintaining its power over the latter. Meanwhile, Congress is leading in Telangana, toppling the K Chandrashekar Rao-led BRS government.
If the current trend stands, the loss of power in two crucial states a year before Lok Sabha election would be a big setback for Congress and the INDIA bloc. Meanwhile, for the BJP, this will help them to strengthen their hold over the Hindi heartland.
However, data from previous elections show that Assembly elections preceding Lok Sabha polls in a state cannot always be used as a reliable measure to understand the mood of the voters, especially since 2018.
As the above chart shows, the parties that have won the most seats in the preceding state elections also won the most seats in Lok Sabha from the state in the last 20 years in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Mizoram until the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
However, this trend was broken in the previous Lok Sabha election. During the 2018 Assembly polls, Congress won the most seats in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. But contrary to the prevailing trend, it failed to use the momentum in 2019, with the BJP winning the most seats in Lok Sabha from all three states.
Telangana, which was only formed in 2014, had BRS winning the most seats in both Assembly and Lok Sabha until the last election in 2019.
How 2019 broke the pattern
Congress won more than 54 percent of the seats cumulatively in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh in 2018. However, the reversal of their fortunes during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was even steeper, with the party only winning 4.62 percent of the seats available from these three states.
In fact, including Telangana and Mizoram, the BJP won more than 78 percent of the Lok Sabha seats from the five states analyzed in 2019. The party had only won just above 29 percent of the total Assembly seats from these states a year before. Meanwhile, Congress, which had won as much as 45 percent of the Assembly seats from the five states in 2018, just won around seven percent of the Lok Sabha seats in 2019.
Impact on Rajya Sabha
Although the assembly polls might not be a direct indicator of how voters will behave in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, it will still have an impact at the national level. With the Winter Session of Parliament scheduled to begin on Monday, winning over the Hindi heartland could strengthen Congress while dealing with the BJP, as well as within the INDIA bloc, or vice versa.
Moreover, the 2023 Assembly polls will also have an impact on the elections for the 65 Rajya Sabha seats scheduled to be held around July-August 2024.
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