Rajasthan Elections 2023: Jat vote holds key to power but which way will the community swing?

The agrarian community of Jats have leaned towards the Congress ever since Rajasthan’s first Congress government abolished the Jagirdari system and introduced land reforms in the 1950s. No wonder, the Congress had a string of Jat stalwarts ranging from Nathu Ram Mirdha and Ram Niwas Mirdha to Sisram Ola and Parasram Maderna. But many in the community, especially Jat youths, are unhappy that no Jat leader was ever made the chief minister of Rajasthan by the Congress.

The affinity towards Congress changed when the BJP played a major role in granting them OBC status. A promise by former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections was instrumental in ensuring OBC quotas for the Jats. This came after a protracted Jat agitation in the late 1990s.

Gehlot’s Uneasy Equation 

With many Congress Jat leaders involved in that campaign, many of them then Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s rivals, a public perception got created of CM Gehlot resisting the reservation demand and therefore anti-Jat, a stain that's stuck with him for years. The Jat factor was considered a key reason for the Congress decline from a high of 156 seats in the 1998 Assembly polls to the huge defeat in the 2003 state polls after Gehlot’s first term as CM.

Two recent incidents reflect the severe jostling for the Jat vote this time. A fortnight ago, CM Gehlot targeted Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar for his frequent trips to Rajasthan. In effect, Gehlot was insinuating that visits by Dhankar, a notable Jat leader, amounted to indirect political campaigning for the BJP – an extraordinary charge on a constitutional figure. Though Dhankar defended his trips by citing his roots in Rajasthan, the spat underlined the fierce competition for the Jat vote.

More recently, a retired army official’s appointment to the Rajasthan Public Service Commission ignited huge resentment among Jats. Retired Colonel Kesari Singh Rathore was appointed to the RPSC on October 9 but he was slammed as  “prejudiced” by the state’s Jat leaders for his social media posts targeting their community. The Rajasthan Jat Mahasabha shot off a letter to the Governor claiming that Rathore’s appointment sullies “the reputation and impartiality of the commission”.

Under fire from the Jats,Gehlot soon admitted that Rathore’s remarks were “condemnable, hurtful and unfortunate”. Despite these regrets, Rajasthan Jat Mahasabha reiterated its demand for Rathore’s resignation claiming that since Gehlot himself had conceded that he was ‘pained’ by Rathore’s ‘hateful statements’, his resignation is essential.

For the ruling Congress, the Jat vote is crucial to retain power in Rajasthan. It’s precisely the reason why Gehlot plumped for Govind Singh Dotasra, a Jat leader from the Shekhawati region, as the state Congress President after Sachin Pilot was removed from the post for his revolt in 2020.

Besides helping Gehlot to weaken his anti-Jat taint, it also blocked Pilot’s return to the key post by arguing that Jats may get upset if Dotasra is replaced. Despite these calculations, the Congress is suddenly in a tough spot over Kesri Rathore’s hasty appointment just hours before the Model Code of Conduct kicked in.

BJP’s Outreach Gets Messy

Beyond Vajpayee's gift of 1999, the BJP has banked on Vasundhara Raje's image as a Jat Bahu (daughter-in-law). But a distinctly sidelined Raje is unlikely to make a massive effort to woo Jats. Given the farm laws that outraged farmers across north India, the saffron brigade’s equation with the Jats is already complicated. Further, the removal of Satish Poonia as state BJP chief in election year disappointed many Jats who saw him as a major CM contender due to his RSS backing and closeness to BJP bigwigs.

To court Jat voters, the BJP recently inducted Jyoti Mirdha, a former Congress MP and a member of a prominent Jat family. But with Raje miffed and a buzz that some Rajput leader may become CM, it’s not easy for the BJP to get huge Jat support.

Significantly, just before assembly polls, the Modi government has raised the minimum support price (MSP) of six rabi crops to woo farmers. The top producer of rapeseed and mustard, Rajasthan also ranks among the top five wheat producing states in the country. And in Rajasthan, the hike is being linked to the BJP’s eagerness to win over the Jats.

Jat Parties No Pushovers

The regional party RLP, led by Hanuman Beniwal, is also a significant challenger. Having won the Nagaur Lok Sabha seat in alliance with the BJP, Beniwal broke the partnership over the farm laws issue. Beniwal’s fiery image has helped forge a deep connect with Jat youth and made him a formidable force. The RLP won three seats in the 2018 polls but this time it plans to contest over 100 seats, including all those in Jat strongholds.

Adding another layer of complexity is the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), an ally in the BJP coalition in Haryana. With a heritage linked to Jat icon and former deputy PM Devi Lal, the JJP plans to contest about 30 seats and further complicate the battle for Jat votes.

With elections barely a month away, all parties are fine-tuning their caste arithmetic – and Jats figure prominently in these calculations. While the Congress has a strong base in the community, the BJP has made major inroads in recent decades and the RLP has emerged as a major contender for the Jat vote. It is unclear which way the Jats will swing, but the tussle for the Jat vote will clearly be one of the most tantalising aspects of the Rajasthan poll battle.

Rajan Mahan is a senior journalist who headed NDTV and Star News in Rajasthan. He was also a Professor of Journalism at the University of Rajasthan in Jaipur. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.