As campaigning for the November 25 assembly election in Rajasthan nears its end, reports from the ground suggest that for the first time in years there is no sign of public anger against incumbent chief minister Ashok Gehlot and yet, his personal popularity may not be sufficient for the Congress to win a second successive term in the desert state.
That Gehlot’s approval ratings have not plummeted after five years in office is in sharp contrast to the 2018 election when there was palpable disillusionment with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s then chief minister Vasundhara Raje. Her once ardent supporters were furious with her, dubbing her arrogant and inaccessible. The slogan, “No CM after 8 pm”, was bandied around extensively in the run-up to the election. The other slogan doing the rounds then, “Modi tujse bair nahin, Vasundhara teri khair nahin”, was a clear reflection of the public mood.
It was the same case with Gehlot in 2013. People were livid with him as they felt he had failed to deliver on governance. Though he did roll out a slew of welfare measures, these were announced far too late and were not implemented. This had added to the anger against Gehlot as people felt he was making all these announcements only to win an election since the benefits of these schemes had not percolated down to them. He was booted out unceremoniously.
Gehlot’s Early Welfare Splurge
Gehlot appears to have learnt from this experience. During this tenure, the Congress leader made sure his government’s welfare schemes were drawn up well ahead of elections so that they could be implemented in time, ensuring delivery to the beneficiaries. The effort here was to offer something for everyone, whether it is women, youth, government employees. farmers or tribals through loan waivers, distribution of smartphones to women, special pension for widows, scholarships for meritorious students and the re-introduction of the Old Pension Scheme. Taking a cue from the Modi government at the Centre, Gehlot ran an exhaustive publicity campaign to showcase these schemes.
As a result, there is virtually no negativity towards the sitting chief minister. Overall, people are happy with his performance. Even the BJP is finding it difficult to pin down Gehlot. Its party leaders have, therefore, resorted to religious polarisation with their constant references to the beheading of Udaipur-based tailor Kanhaiya Lal and the chief minister’s poor track record in ensuring safety of women to launch an offensive against him.
Though these issues have limited resonance, there are lingering doubts that goodwill towards Gehlot will automatically translate into a victory for the Congress. Other factors are also at play here. Pollsters and political pundits hesitate to predict a win for Gehlot as Rajasthan has a tradition of voting out an incumbent government after one term. This has been internalised by both the voters and political players in the state.
But Congress Looks Shaky
Gehlot may have insulated himself from attack but the same cannot be said about Congress MLAs. There is anger against individual legislators for their long spells of absence and for not doing sufficient development work in their respective constituencies.
Mindful of this, the Congress wanted to deny tickets to a substantial number of sitting legislators but failed to do so. The party could end up paying a price for its timidity. Then there is anger among the youth over the periodic cancellation of public service examinations following the leak of exam papers.
Gehlot’s longstanding feud with arch rival Sachin Pilot is not helping him either. Though the Congress leadership in Delhi had brought about a truce between the two well before the elections, this has proved to be nothing more than a photo-op. Gehlot and Pilot have since gone their separate ways and have been campaigning independently, not having addressed a single meeting together. Not many are willing to believe that Gehlot and Pilot are working in unison. This is apparent to voters and has been highlighted by BJP leaders with Prime Minister Narendra Modi taking a swipe at the Congress, saying their “leaders are busy running each other out.”
Raje BJP’s Big Worry
The Congress is drawing solace from the fact that the BJP’s Rajasthan unit is also a divided house. The decision not to project Vasundhara Raje as the party’s chief ministerial candidate and instead go in for what is euphemistically being referred to as “collective leadership” has upset her loyalists while a section of the electorate is also unhappy that the “Rani” is unlikely to made chief minister if the BJP ousts the Gehlot government. Raje herself has not said a word out of place and is campaigning primarily for candidates close to her. In view of her silence, it is difficult to gauge if she will play spoiler in the elections and how it will impact BJP’s electoral prospects.
The “collective leadership” mantra also means that the BJP is wholly dependent on Modi to sway the voter in its favour as the Prime Minister’s popularity remains undiminished. The Prime Minister is leading the party campaign and is seeking votes, not for state leaders, but for himself. If the BJP’s gambit works, the party leadership will be better placed to remote control the next chief minister, which was not possible with Vasundhara Raje as she could stand her ground because she enjoyed the support of a majority of legislators and had a mass base.
With Vasundhara out of the picture and the BJP’s chief ministerial contenders confined to their respective constituencies, the Rajasthan election is turning out to be a contest between Modi and Gehlot.
Anita Katyal is a Delhi-based independent journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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