Madhya Pradesh (MP) has essentially seen a bipolar contest between BJP and Congress since 1990. The Congress was in power from 1993-2003, while the BJP has been in power for the last 20 years except for a brief 15 month period in 2018-2020.
A BJP Fortress like Gujarat
MP was the second state where BJP formed its government since it became the political spearhead of the Ram Mandir movement in the 1980s. Not surprisingly, even the Congress espouses a softer version of Hindutva to appeal to an electorate that is largely right of centre.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the longest serving BJP CM, having eclipsed Raman Singh’s record in his present term and going past Narendra Modi during his previous term. After Gujarat, BJP has been in power for the longest tenure in MP.
In 2003, BJP ended 10 years of Digvijay Singh’s rule (he wasn’t Digvijaya then), winning a three-fourth majority with 173 seats. BJP made Uma Bharti CM but she was replaced within nine months by Babulal Gaur, who also couldn’t last beyond 15 months.
BJP then made 46-year-old Mama – as he is now fondly called – the CM and he has completed 16-and-a-half years in the top job. In 2008 and 2013 as well, BJP won by nearly two-third majority. In 2018, Congress emerged as the single largest party (114) just two short of the majority mark, riding on the anti-incumbency against the BJP government.
However, in March 2020, the Jyotiraditya Scindia-led faction of 22 MLAs resigned and joined the BJP reducing the Kamal Nath government to a minority. BJP made a comeback and Shivraj was installed again as CM just before the nationwide lockdown that was clamped due to COVID.
In terms of vote share, the BJP had an advantage of 5 percent to 10 percent in the three elections between 2003 and 2013 elections. However in 2018, the gap was reduced to just 0.1 percent with both Congress and BJP recording around 41 percent vote share.
Smaller parties SP, GGP and independents have had a significant role in MP, recording anywhere between 12 percent to 21 percent vote share. BSP has an average vote share of 6 percent. However the influence of BSP and others is on a decline in recent years.
BJP’s OBC Politics, With A CM Face
After the Mandal movement, caste politics has dominated elections in many states. However, Madhya Pradesh was untouched. Digvijay Singh’s term from 1993 to 2003 confirms this.
But OBC focus came to the centrestage of MP politics in 2003 when BJP anointed OBC leader Uma Bharti as its CM. This was not a one-off move as the BJP consistently followed it up with both Babulal Gaur and Shivraj Singh Chouhan hailing from OBC groups.
Madhya Pradesh has 37 percent Hindu OBCs, 17 percent general category, 21 percent STs, 16 percent SCs, 7 percent Muslims and 2 percent others. Including minorities, the total number of OBCs are in the range of 45-46 percent.
BJP has traditionally received the support of upper caste and OBCs, while Congress banks on SC-ST and minorities. In 2018, BJP’s traditional vote base of upper castes were angry due to amendments to the SC/ST Act, nullifying a Supreme Court order.
Brahmins and Rajputs formed their own party SAPAKS which came third in 11 seats in 2018, damaging BJP prospects in what became a tie-breaker contest. On the other end of the spectrum, anger over the SC judgment diluting the SC/ST Atrocities Act and the Congress party’s deal with tribal party JAYAS helped it win 47 (a +28 positive swing) of the 82 reserved seats.
However, Muslims in large numbers have voted for Shivraj (15-17 percent in 2013-18) due to his secular image. But this may decline as he has adopted a hardline Hindutva approach in this term.
Congress is also trying to create cleavages in the core vote bank of BJP, the OBCs through the caste census demand. But it isn’t clear if this can take priority over local issues. Ultimately, whoever gets the caste combination right on each seat is likely to win.
Six Regions, One Election
MP can be divided into six regions. Gwalior-Chambal has 34 seats, Baghelkhand which is made up of Bundelkhand and Vindhya 56, Bhopal 25, Mahakaushal 42, Malwa 45 and Nimar 28 seats.
BJP was ahead in Baghelkhand, Bhopal and Malwa regions in 2018 while Congress was ahead in Gwalior-Chambal, Mahakaushal and Nimar. Whether BJP benefits from Jyotiraditya Scindia taking the Congress organisation with him in Gwalior-Chambal remains to be seen.
A Large Welfare Votebank
Congress’s five guarantees which include: (i) implementation of old pension scheme, (ii) LPG cylinder for Rs 500, (iii) Rs 1,500 per month allowance for women, (iv) free electricity up to 100 units and half bill up to 200 units and (v) farm loan waiver, are catching up among voters.
Mama has announced a Ladli Behna Yojana to counter Congress’s cash dole promise wherein he has already transferred Rs. 1,000-Rs. 1250 each to 1.25 cr women neutralising the impact of the Congress guarantees to some extent.
Cautious or Confused Strategy?
Congress, under Kamal Nath’s leadership, smells a chance to make a comeback riding on anti-incumbency. It also hopes there is a sympathy factor in favour of Kamal Nath over the manner of his unseating in 2020.
Both the parties have flipped their strategy. In 2018, Congress had contested on a combined leadership of Kamal Nath, Digvijaya Singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia, while BJP was contesting a presidential style election with Modi and Shivraj at the helm.
In 2023 BJP is shying away from declaring Shivraj as CM face and will be seeking votes in the name of PM Modi and contest polls on a combined leadership model. Congress is attempting to craft a Presidential style contest pitching it as a Kamal Nath versus Shivraj contest.
BJP has realised that it is a tough seat-by-seat battle and has announced candidates for 136 seats till October 16, including seven MPs. Twenty-five of 31 cabinet ministers have been repeated so far. In 2018, 13 of 33 ministers had lost polls, but surprisingly there seems to be no learnings from that mistake.
Congress released a list of 144 candidates on the first day of the auspicious Navratri. Both parties have retained most of their MLAs till now despite high local level anti-incumbency. As per News24 survey, 40 percent people blame MLAs while 26 percent cited CM Shivraj for their issues/problems.
The repeating of sitting MLAs may be a sign that both the parties have to manage rebellions in many seats over ticket distribution, which can upset calculations in a tight contest.
Opinion Polls Divided
Opinion polls are divided on who’s winning MP. ABP-CVoter predicts a tight race with Congress ahead of BJP, while IANS-Pollstrat predicts BJP retaining the state.
The big issues flagged in the surveys include unemployment, price rise, corruption, atrocities against SC-ST, women safety (MP is number two in rapes), agri distress, Hindutva and caste census.
While the grand old party has coined the slogan “Congress aayegi, khushhali layegi”, the saffron party has gone ahead with its tried and tested “Phir is baar Bhajpa sarkar”.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.
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