For over 5.6 crore Madhya Pradesh voters, including 2.7 crore females, spread across 230 assembly constituencies, the choice is largely limited between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress in the state’s bipolar polity, as Madhya Pradesh is all set to go to polls next month.
Of the 230, nearly one-third (82) seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes (35) and Scheduled Tribes (47). Although a number of opinion polls have predicted a slight edge to a resurgent Congress in the forthcoming assembly election, BJP still looks confident of overcoming the visible anti-incumbency sentiment against its briefly-interrupted 20-year rule riding on the tried and tested strength of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mass appeal, huge resources at its command and, of course, Hindutva.
Shivraj, A Liability This Time?
Where the BJP looks less confident though, is Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s record as the party’s longest serving chief minister. The party’s most dependable mascot in the three previous assembly elections, the CM appears to have become an albatross round the BJP’s neck in the run-up to the election this time round.
His ubiquitous imprint on the collective consciousness of the state’s electorate has posed an acute dilemma before the party. The central leadership’s desperate attempts to invisibilise the chief minister’s performance behind the Prime Minister’s overarching presence seem to have evoked more sneer than satisfaction among the voters.
This relegation of Chouhan has been evident in BJP campaigning, be it in the Jan Ashirwad Yatras or election meetings of the big party leaders including of the PM’s. The Prime Minister’s conspicuous avoidance of mentioning Chouhan’s name and works of the CM in his half-a-dozen election meetings in the state so far has only added to the perception of Chouhan’s marginalisation. Modi broadly spoke about the achievements of his government and alleged failures of the Congress governments in the past.
Therefore, the biggest challenge before the BJP is to try and convince the voters that they can have a much better government with a new BJP chief minister, who will go on to fulfill their hopes and aspirations.
In No Mood to Fade Away
But a seemingly indefatigable Chouhan has been showing no signs of fading away from the electoral arena in his public interactions, much to the discomfiture of the party high command. The Chief Minister seems undeterred in his self-assessment about how his long stint transformed once-BIMARU Madhya Pradesh into one of the most developed states in India, no matter how poorly the statistics might reflect about the state’s socio-economic-educational status or how vociferously the opposition leaders might decry “50 percent commission ki sarkar”, signifying massive corruption in the state.
The CM also looks unfazed about the debt burden on the state exchequer (nearly Rs 4.5 lakh crore) as is evident in his repeated assertions that there is no dearth of money for development in the state. Nowhere is the profligacy of the government more evident than the stupendous scale of advertisements of the MP government’s achievements in the media.
Congress Bets On OBCs, BJP On Women
The Congress is taking full advantage of the apparent schism between the chief minister and the central leadership. The BJP’s decision to field seven MPs including three Union ministers in the assembly election provided a much-needed shot in the arm for the opposition party to take a jibe at its opponent. On Hindutva, the Congress has virtually matched the BJP, so much so that the issue has lost its sharp edge, unlike the previous elections.
In wooing women voters, too, both the parties are in a fierce race, having announced competitive doles in cash to nearly 48 percent of the state’s voters. However, the BJP looks in an advantageous position on this count as the targeted beneficiaries have already begun receiving Rs 1,250 per month apart from a gas cylinder at Rs 450 from the Shivraj Singh government. In comparison, the Congress’s promises of providing Rs 1500 each to eligible women and a gas cylinder at Rs 500 are a distant dream.
However, the Congress hopes to offset this perceived disadvantage on the women voter front by raising the pitch on the OBC front. The opposition party’s promises to restore 27 percent reservation, launching caste-based census and OBC quota within 33 percent quota for women as provided in the women reservation bill are resonating with the OBCs that comprise nearly 50 percent of the state’s population.
Since 2003 when the BJP came to power in Madhya Pradesh riding on the crest of the Hindutva wave that subsumed caste identity politics, under the leadership of Uma Bharti, the BJP tended to take the OBC voters for granted. It helped that all its chief ministers Uma Bharti, Babulal Gaur and Shivraj Singh belonged to the OBCs.
But this time a significant part of OBCs voters appear to be drifting towards the Congress. What is being described as the revival of Mandal versus Kamandal in Indian politics in the aftermath of the caste-based census in Bihar has posed a big threat to the BJP’s all-embracing Hindutva politics.
So, in Madhya Pradesh, where regional parties are virtually non-existent, the Congress, by default, is the gainer from the fresh churning in the politics around OBCs.
Rakesh Dixit is a senior journalist based in Bhopal. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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