Karnataka Elections: It is a case of six regional elections rolled into one

Lingayats are found predominantly in North and Central Karnataka, Vokkaligas in South. Muslim population is higher in the North and Coastal. SC and ST population is high in Hyderabad Karnataka and Old Mysuru regions. Kurubas are found more in the eastern parts of the state.

How The Regions Diverge During Polls

In the 2018 elections, in terms of seats, BJP led in three regions (Bombay, Coastal and Central), Congress in two regions (Bengaluru and Hyderabad) while JD(S) in Old Mysuru.

BJP suffered setbacks in Bengaluru (despite the trend of urban voters favouring BJP) and Hyderabad Karnataka (where it did well in 2008). The relatively poor performance in these two regions ensured BJP couldn’t get a simple majority of its own.

In the 2013 elections, Congress led in all the regions, helped by a split in the BJP. Yediyurappa and the Reddy brothers formed their own parties, severely denting the saffron party’s prospects in all regions. The division of votes also helped Congress even lead in Old Mysuru against JD(S).

In the 2008 elections, BJP led against the Congress in five regions barring its weak point of Old Mysuru.

Bellwether Regions: Always On Winning Side

Bombay, Coastal and Central Karnataka regions have always backed the single largest party/winner in the last three polls post delimitation. Old Mysuru normally voted for the party on the losing side during the said period, barring 2013.

Bengaluru and Hyderabad Karnataka which backed the winning party both in 2008 and 2013, broke the trend and backed the Congress which ended up on the losing side in 2018.

In terms of vote shares, Congress has consistently beaten BJP in Old Mysuru, Bengaluru and Hyderabad Karnataka regions. BJP has beaten Congress in 2008 and 2018 in Bombay and Central Karnataka regions.

To win, BJP needs to hold onto its performance in Bombay, Coastal and Central Karnataka, reverse losses in Hyderabad and Bengaluru Karnataka. To win, Congress needs to make a dent in BJP strongholds.

A Deep Dive Into The Six Regions

Bombay Karnataka :  Renamed as Kittur Karnataka, it was under the erstwhile Bombay Presidency before Independence. It shares a border dispute with Maharashtra. It is the sugarcane producing region of the state. The drought situation has led to many farmer suicides in this region.

It is considered a stronghold of BJP. The party won maximum seats in 2008 and 2018, however, Congress swept in 2013 owing to the BS Yediyurappa split. Muslim population in this region is high, almost 1.5x the state average. Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai is a popular leader from this region.

Hyderabad Karnataka: Renamed as Kalyana Karnataka, it is the second largest arid region in the country and was previously ruled by the Nizams of Hyderabad. The vicious cycle of severe drought, unemployment and poverty has rendered it as the most underdeveloped region.

The special status granted to it through Article 371(J), for reservation in education and recruitment, is yet to show any visible result. People here have been demanding separate statehood.

BJP won maximum seats in this region in 2008. However, Congress won more than 50 percent of seats in the last two polls. It has a sizable population of SC-ST-Muslims combined, ranging from 42 percent to 57 percent. Mallikarjun Kharge is a popular leader from this region.

Central Karnataka: It is considered a BJP stronghold since 2004 as the party has succeeded in consolidating Hindu votes. The fear of closure of state-owned Visvesvaraya Iron and Steel Limited, the dispute over the implementation of the Kasturirangan committee report on Western Ghats, loss of coffee crop due to rains, issues of areca growers and the Upper Bhadra Project are dominant local issues in this region.

The SC population is higher than state average in this region. The tribal and Muslim population is higher in two out of four districts. The region boasts of five ex-Chief Ministers. Yediyurappa hails from this region.

Coastal Karnataka: It is the smallest region and a bastion of BJP. Even in 2013 when Yediyurappa and the Reddy brothers split the party, BJP recorded its highest vote share of 34 percent in Coastal Karnataka. Excessive sand mining and illegal constructions have led to massive coastal erosion.

Polarisation plays a key role with love jihad and hijab controversy emerging as major issues. Communal incidents in the coastal districts during 2022 were the highest in the last seven years. Davangere district has the highest Muslim population in the state. State BJP president Nalin Kumar Kateel and former Union Minister Ananthkumar Hegde are from this belt.

Old Mysuru: Old Mysuru has historically witnessed a tough fight between the Congress and JD(S). Both Siddaramaiah and Deve Gowda belong to this region. It is the weakest link of the BJP which is playing for the long haul here.

While Congress is hoping for AHINDA consolidation, JD(S) hopes Vokkaligas along with Dalits and minorities will back the party because of goodwill enjoyed by the Gowda family. Hindutva does not resonate with the voters here despite BJP raising Tipu Sultan issue regularly. Farming issues dominate in this region.

Bengaluru Karnataka: It has 28 urban and 8 rural seats. DK Shivkumar is a popular leader from this region. The IT hub of India has a cosmopolitan population. With rapid and unplanned urbanisation, Bengaluru city is characterised with high traffic jams, high level of pollution, urban crimes, high cost of living, environmental degradation, sanitation problems and water shortages. With no party solving these problems, urban apathy has led to a very low turnout in this region.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.