Who will win Karnataka is a million dollar question in everybody’s mind? Will Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai fail to retain power for the Bharatiya Janata Party? Will there be a hung assembly again and former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) play the role of kingmaker? Or will Siddaramaiah’s emotional pitch of his last elections work and help Congress storm back to power?
The answers have many layers and are not easy. But the history of elections in the state offers some clues.
First, A Short Political History
Karnataka has been a fiefdom of the Congress party since its inception in 1957. Even in 1978, amid the Janata Party’s national onslaught, Karnataka was one of the few states which Congress managed to retain. In 1983, the first non-Congress government was installed in the state, under the leadership of Janata Party’s Ramakrishna Hegde. He was the last Chief Minister to have returned to power in the state in 1985.
Read more on our coverage of Karnataka Elections 2023 here
From 1985 to 1999, power oscillated between Janata Dal constituents and Congress. The trend was broken in 2004 when people gave a hung verdict. Congress formed the government with support of JD(S). 2004-2008 was a period of instability and the state witnessed 3 chief ministerial tenures, one from each party, including BJP for the first time.
In 2008, BJP won largely on the sympathy wave created by JD(S)’s decision to not honour its commitment to the coalition with BJP and pulling down BS Yediyurappa (then Yeddyurappa) as CM within a week. In 2013, the state in continuation of its trend, voted Congress back to power after Yediyurappa was embroiled in a series of corruption allegations.
In 2018, BJP emerged as the single largest party. However Congress and JD(S) joined hands in a post poll scenario to form the government. BJP stormed to power one year later propelled by a string of defections in the ruling alliance. It changed its CM, replacing Yeddiyurappa in July 2021, to buck the anti-incumbency trend.
Why do Karnataka voters oust incumbents?
Reason #1: No Supreme Leaders
While Yediyurappa is considered a strong RSS man he has not been able to establish his leadership in communities apart from Lingayats and upper castes and he never quite recovered his standing as BJP’s undisputed leader since his unceremonious ouster in 2011.
Siddaramaiah is considered a leader of AHINDAs but still considered an outsider in Congress as he hopped from JD(S), and doesn’t get wholehearted support from all factions. HD Kumaraswamy is considered just a Vokkaliga leader. None of them have been able to win the hearts of majority sections of society. Other states have had “supremo” CMs but not Karnataka.
Reason #2: Corruption Allegations
Corruption is rampant whichever party comes to power. Yediyurappa was jailed in 2011 in an alleged mining scam. 61 cases were filed against Siddaramaiah in the Lokayukta court. The current government has been labeled as a "40 percent commission" government.
This leaves voters with no option but to overthrow the government as that is the only weapon they have. A trend of revenge voting is witnessed in Karnataka similar to revenge spending witnessed after COVID.
Reason #3: All Parties Same-Same
Karnataka is the classic example of Aaya Ram Gaya Ram politics. One-sixth of MLAs of the current assembly have been elected on more than one party ticket in their career. Nearly one-fourth of current BJP MLAs have won election previously from different party tickets versus one-tenth for Congress.
On a daily basis we hear about an MLA or MLC switching parties this election season. The scale of apathy is visible in very low turnout in urban areas like Bengaluru. Twenty-nine percent of people in the state do not consider themselves as traditional supporters of any political party creating a huge floating voter base.
Reason #4: JD(S) And Hung Assemblies
Karnataka is the only state in southern India where national parties BJP and Congress are the number 1 and number 2 party. The regional party is a clear Number Three here, but an influential player nevertheless, evident from Kumaraswamy assuming the CM’s chair with just 39 MLAs in 2018 and 58 MLAs in 2006.
Sub-nationalism also plays a role where a section of voters like the Vokkaligas want a regional force like JD(S) to have a share in the power pie and their man as a CM, which is clearly visible in every assembly election.
Reason #5: One State, Many Divergences
Karnataka’s different regions behave differently: Old Mysuru is a JD(S) stronghold, BJP is relatively stronger in North and Central Karnataka, while Congress is diffused across the state.
Due to this, BJP has won the state twice despite getting a lower vote share than the Congress. But with anti-incumbency bound to kick in given the corruption charges, BJP cannot expect a repeat performance in North Karnataka even if it does better in Old Mysuru.
What can be said with certainty given the history of hung assemblies and marginal victories is that a cracker of an election is on the anvil this time too.
Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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