Karnataka votes tomorrow for 224 assembly seats, ending a high-stakes contest that saw the ruling BJP going all out to break a 38-year-old jinx and retain power in its only southern state.
Here's what you need to know
What are opinion polls saying?
India TV-CNX's opinion polls says Congress has the edge with 105 seats and ruling BJP scoring close to 85 seats. The ABP-C-Voter opinion poll for the Karnataka elections also puts Congress in lead despite the PM's intense road show. According to the ABP-C-Voter, the Congress will likely bag 110-122 seats. The number needed to form a simple majority government is 113.
Another survey by India Today-CVoter sees setback for the ruling BJP in the state. The opinion poll predicts that the BJP may only secure 74-86 seats, a drop of 24 seats from 2018. Eedina, a Kannada outlet, predicts majority for Congress with 32-140 seats, and the BJP securing 57-65 seats.
Can opinion polls be trusted?
An analysis of data of 13 opinion polls for the 2018 Karnataka elections shows that only two of them got it right in terms of direction, that is who is likely to win or emerge as single largest party (SLP). Ten of the 13 predicted that Congress would be the SLP while one of them (C fore) projected it would win. This despite a strong trend of no incumbent chief minister ever winning re-election for nearly four decades.
How much votes can the Modi factor bring for the BJP?
The Modi factor is the additional votes that the PM brings to the BJP fold on account of his charisma/personal capital. These voters may not necessarily be ideologically aligned with the party. The Modi factor works differently when the party is in power and when out of power in states. In 2018 despite the favourable history of Karnataka choosing a new government and the Modi factor, BJP couldn't touch the majority mark.
What happened in last elections?
2018 assembly poll results saw a fractured mandate with BJP emerging as the single largest party. It bagged 104 seats while the Congress and JD (S) won 87 and 30 seats each. Yediyurappa, the then state CM, had to prove majority within a 15-day window given by the governor that was reduced to three days. The CM put in his papers before a trust vote in May 2018 paving way for the Congress-JD(S) coalition to form cabinet under HD Kumaraswamy. This government lasted for just 14 months.
What could be the big factors on voter minds tomorrow?
The Congress made corruption in the BJP government its major poll plank, it has also released five promises which it calls guarantees: 10 kg free rice for poor families, 200 units of free electricity, Rs 2,000 monthly allowance for families led by women, monthly doles for unemployed graduates and diploma holders, and free public transport for working women.
The BJP has listed six promises in its manifesto pertaining to food security, social welfare, education, health, development and income. The manifesto also promises to implement the Uniform Civil Code and National Register of Citizens.
The JD(S) manifesto has promised quality education at gram panchayat level, medical assistance up to Rs 40 lakh to families, waiving off loans of women and self-help groups, financial assistance to farmers and better healthcare facilities.
Who really has the edge for now?
The Congress appears to enjoy favourable tailwinds for now, however, it remains to be seen if this will shift to BJP after PM Modi’s public meetings and road shows. In 2018, however, the “Modi magic” did not help BJP win a simple majority.
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