The Karnataka election has brought the curtains down on the Bharatiya Janata Party's southern surge for now as the saffron party does not govern any state south of the Vindhya Range.
However, the BJP's next target state would be Telangana, where assembly elections are scheduled to be held in December. Telangana’s ruling party, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi led by K Chandrasekhar Rao, has thrown its hat into the ring in the effort to dislodge the BJP-led government at the Centre next year.
Also Read: Karnataka Elections 2023: Here's how Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra helped Congress
In 2018, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in Karnataka, with 104 seats in the 224-member house. However, this time around, the party lost 40 seats. Its vote share declined to 35.8 percent.
The BJP ran a high-decibel campaign in the state and introduced 75 fresh faces to contest the elections in a bid to nullify the anti-incumbency sentiment. The strategy of fielding new faces was first implemented during the Gujarat assembly elections last year, when 45 incumbent legislators, including former Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, were dropped.
The tactic paid off and most of the new candidates won. However, there were exceptions in Botad and Waghodia, where the new BJP candidates were defeated by their Aam Aadmi Party and independent rivals.
According to political commentators, the BJP hoped to win over more voters in the southern states as it seeks to secure a third consecutive National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre in 2024. They said the results in BJP-ruled Karnataka indicate that the political climate might not be conducive for the party in the south.
The five southern states have 129 Lok Sabha seats or about 24 percent of the total. The BJP currently holds only 29 of these seats.
“This will give time to rethink and there will be a moment of consolidation. The Congress’ victory is a turning point in the present political discourse," said Shiv Visvanathan, a sociologist.
The BJP’s road to the 2024 general elections looks "bleak" now and it is an appropriate time for the opposition parties to cooperate, following which leaders like National Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar will fall in line, remarked Visvanathan.
Also Read: Karnataka Election Results 2023: 6 factors that led to Congress landslide
According to political expert Rasheed Kidwai, the loss in Karnataka is a setback for the ruling BJP. The party currently has 25 members of parliament from the state and the number is likely to decrease in the upcoming general elections.
He said Congress targeted the BJP government on issues of corruption, misgovernance, and reservation, while the BJP relied on caste politics to secure its victory.
“The BJP pushed Hindutva hard in Karnataka, but it didn’t hold ground. Local issues were important in the state, and it gives an idea that states, where elections are due, will prioritise differently,” said Kidwai.
The change in political dynamics comes at a crucial time for the BJP, which faces tough challenges in West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
“It is unlikely that these states will tilt towards the BJP, which could prove to be a significant game-changer for the opposition parties in 2024,” said Kidwai.
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