After a decade, Karnataka assembly elections results are expected to give full mandate to a party to rule without the political machinations of horse trading. In the results declared on Saturday, the Congress was leading in 136 constituencies of the total 224, the BJP in 65, JD (S) in 19 and others in four at 2 pm.
The Congress lead tally is above the results of 10 prominent exit polls, four of which had predicted a hung assembly with the Congress emerging as the single largest outfit, while four others had given an absolute majority to the party. Of the two remaining exit polls, one had said it would be a hung assembly with the BJP emerging as the single largest party, and the other had given absolute majority to it.
The aggregate of the 10 exit polls had given 108 seats to the Congress, 91 to the BJP, and 22 to the JD (S).
While jubilation and celebrations were witnessed at the residences of Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) President DK Shivakumar, former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, and at the Congress Bhavan in Bengaluru, BJP leaders went into a huddle, shocked by the outcome. ``The Congress victory is the best birthday gift Shivakumar would have got in his life,'' a Congress leader said. The KPCC President turns 61 years on May 15.
During the election campaign, while Siddaramaiah had maintained the Congress would win 130 seats, Shivakumar was confident the party's tally would touch the 141 mark. In 2013, the Congress had won 122, and the BJP and JD (S) 40 each. In 2018, the BJP had emerged the single largest party with 104 seats, followed by the Congress with 80, and the JD (S) with 37 seats. In 2008, the Congress had secured 80, BJP 110, and the JD (S) 28.
As the Congress continued its winning spree, wresting seats in constituencies held by the BJP, the biggest shocker for the party was the defeat of former Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar — its prize catch. The Lingayat leader from the Kittur Karnataka region (Mumbai-Karnataka), who broke all ties with the BJP and Sangh Parivar to join the Congress after he was denied a ticket by his erstwhile party (BJP) to contest from the Hubballi-Dharwad Central seat, lost to his one-time confidant, BJP candidate Mahesh Tenginakai.
According to Congress sources, Shettar's defeat was unexpected as he had been winning from that constituency (formerly called Hubballi Rural) since 1994. But Shettar's one-time mentor, former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa, had predicted Shettar's defeat as he had confidently said that he would write in blood that the latter would lose on a Congress ticket.
“Shettar went to the Congress, but his supporters and grassroots workers in the constituency remained with the BJP,'' a BJP functionary said.
However, another BJP strongman and Lingayat leader, former deputy Chief Minister Laxman S Savadi, who joined the Congress with Shettar, had a comfortable win from Athani in Belagavi district. Savadi resigned his MLC seat to join the Congress after the BJP declined a ticket to him.
The ruling BJP had to contend with many defeats.
Prominent among them were ministers B Sriramulu, who lost to Congress’s L Nagendra from Ballari. V Somanna, who had contested from two seats — Varuna and Chamarajanagar, was defeated in Varuna where former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah won comfortably by a margin of 8,000-plus votes. Other ministers to lose were K Sudhakar in Chikkaballapur, J C Madhuswamy in Chikkanayakanahalli and BC Patil in Hirekerur. In 2018, 20 ministers from the Siddaramaiah government had lost in the polls.
According to political commentators, the BJP's experiment of giving tickets to 75 new faces seemed to have backfired, which added to the strong anti-incumbency the Basavaraj Bommai government was facing when it went to the polls.
The BJP's biggest loss was from its two stronghold regions — Mumbai Karnataka, or Kittur Karnataka, which accounts for around 50 seats, and Kalyan Karnataka, or Hyderabad Karnataka, which has around 40 seats. Both are dominated by the Lingayats, and a small shift in their support is said to have helped the Congress.
Besides, Union Home Minister Amit Shah's experiment of breaking into the Vokkaliga heartland of Old Mysuru region also failed. Here too the Congress fared well, with the JD (S) suffering a setback.
In the JD (S) camp it was a mix of jubilation and disappointment. While former Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy was set to win from Channapatna, his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy lost from the adjacent constituency, Ramanagaram, to Congress’s HA Iqbal Ansari. This is Nikhil's second electoral defeat, after losing the Mandya Lok Sabha seat to independent candidate Sumalatha Ambareesh, an actor, in 2019.
The Hassan seat had caused some rumblings in former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda's family. His daughter-in-law and wife of JD (S) MLA H D Revanna wanted to contest from the seat, but the ticket was finally given to party worker H P Swaroop, who won the seat. Sitting BJP MLA Preetam J Gowda lost.
The sole consolation for the BJP was that the party’s performance had improved in Bengaluru city, which has 28 constituencies. From 11 in the 2018 elections, the BJP tally went upto 13 Much of this is attributed to the road shows held over two days by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Speaking to the media, Siddaramaiah said the verdict was a mandate against Modi and Shah. “I think this election is very crucial. It's a stepping stone for the ensuing Lok Sabha polls in 2024. I want to see Rahul Gandhi become the Prime Minister,'' he added. Siddaramaiah said the Congress Legislature Party will be convened on Sunday.
Shivakumar, who became emotional, while speaking to the media recalled that Congress leader Sonia Gandhi had come to meet him when he was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate in connection with a money laundering case. "I had assured Sonia Gandhi then that I will deliver Karnataka to them,'' he added.
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