Chartered flights and helicopters were pressed into service by the Congress to ferry disgruntled BJP leaders denied tickets to contest the May 10 Assembly elections to Bengaluru. All this even before the BJP leaders could officially declare their intent to join the party. It has been a windfall for the Congress in Karnataka, which is seeking to return to power, after it managed prize catches in former Chief Minister Jagdish Shettar and former MLC Laxman S Savadi, both denied tickets by the BJP.
The common factor in the defections was that these leaders represented the Lingayat community, the base vote bank of the BJP over the years. Shettar, whose political moorings were in the Jana Sangh and RSS, and who, along with former chief Minister B S Yediyurappa was responsible for building the BJP in Karnataka from scratch, warned that his exit would have a bearing on at least 20 to 25 seats.
Speaking to the media in Hubballi on April 16, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai admitted that Shettar’s resignation from the party would impact the BJP, adding “but damage control exercise will be made to minimise it”. As switching parties by candidates is common during elections, the dent is less in a ruling party. However, the ruling BJP in Karnataka, which has always claimed to be a party with a difference and discipline, has been losing many leaders who failed to get tickets.
Other Lingayat leaders who quit the BJP include Ramdurg (Belagavi district) MLA Mahadevappa Yadwad; MK Pattanshetty and Mahantesh Mamadapur from Badami in Bagalkot. Besides, Yediyurappa's Man Friday NR Santosh, whose viral videos of Congress-JD(S) MLAs being escorted to Mumbai in 2019 helped trigger the downfall of the Kumaraswamy government, also resigned after he failed to get a ticket from Arsikere in Hassan district. The JD(S), whose sitting MLA KM Shivalinge Gowda quit to join the Congress, was quick to adopt him.
A key vote bank
Political observers say a narrative or a perception is being built that the BJP has become complacent regarding the Lingayat vote bank. If the Congress’ electoral management is sharp, it may be able to exploit this perception to win over the community, whose goodwill it (the Congress) lost in 1990, they add.
According to these observers, the narrative of former Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy declining to transfer power to Yediyurappa as per the JD(S)-BJP coalition government's agreement in 2007 helped the BJP emerge as the single-largest party, with 110 seats, in 2008. But five years later, in 2013, the BJP’s tally plunged to 40 seats after Yediyurappa parted ways with the BJP and formed the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP, in 2012). The KJP won just six seats, but damaged the BJP in the remaining seats.
“In the present elections the perception that Lingayat strongman Yediyurappa was asked to step down from the Chief Minister's post, and later sidelined in the party, notwithstanding the fact that he has been accommodated in the Central Parliamentary Board, is going to impact the BJP,” a source said. The exit of Shettar and Savadi would also hurt the party, the source added.
While the JD(S) votes come from the Vokkaliga community and other backward classes in the Old Mysuru region, the Congress draws Ahinda votes (Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits), along with a share of the Vokkaliga and Lingayat votes. There is a chance for the Congress to tap the Lingayat votes now, sources add.
Regarding the possibility of the Congress losing Muslim goodwill at the expense of admitting BJP leaders, a Congress functionary said: “Those who have come now, such as Shettar or Savadi, have never been seen as having a communal stand. They have been the moderate faces in the BJP and the Congress sees a strong backing of the Muslim votes this time after the Hijab, Halal and Azaan controversies.”
Why are Lingayat votes crucial?
Out of the 224 assembly constituencies in the state, as many as 100 constituencies are dominated by the Lingayat community, and the majority of these seats are in North Karnataka. The Lingayats account for 17 percent of the state’s total population followed by the Vokkaligas, with 15 percent, Muslims (12.92 percent), Kurubas (9 percent) and Brahmins (3 percent). Kalyan Karnataka, with 40 seats, and Kittur Karnataka, with 50, are the epicentres of the Lingayat community.
Until 1989, the Lingayats were in the Congress fold. But the ouster of then Chief Minister Veerendra Patil, who was recovering from a stroke in 1990, turned the community against the party and it has not been able to recover from that shift. After his expulsion from the Janata Dal, former chief minister Ramakrishna Hegde formed the Lok Shakti party and a social organisation called the Rashtriya Nava Nirmana Vedike. The Lok Shakti's alliance with the BJP, and Hegde getting JH Patel, a Lingayat, on his side after the Janata Parivar split, resulted in the community getting close to the BJP. With the Janata Parivar’s constant splits, BJP’s Yediyurappa emerged as the main rallying point for the community in mid 2000.
Reservation matrix fails to enthuse community
The Bommai government’s tinkering with Karnataka’s caste reservation quota has boomeranged. The Lingayat community had demanded a place in the 2A category of the reservation quota, which would have entitled them to 15 percent reservation in education and government jobs, instead of the 3(B) category with 5 percent reservation. The government, however, placed them in a new category, 2D, with 7 percent reservation, along with the Vokkaligas, who got 6 percent in the 2C bracket.
The new matrix, by withdrawing the 4 percent reservation earmarked for Muslims, was questioned in the courts. The Supreme Court slammed the state government for its “flawed and prima facie shaky” policy. The government has stayed the new reservation quota order till April 18.
How all of these factors influence the election outcome will be known on May 13, counting day.
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