Chhattisgarh Elections 2023: It is Bhupesh Baghel versus BJP

Post-Raman Singh, the BJP has been facing a leadership crisis in the state. Over the past five years it has changed three state presidents and has still to come out of the shadow of Raman Singh who is still the most favoured CM candidate for BJP in the minds of voters, though the party had moved on from him.

The BJP in line with its strategy has decided not to announce any CM candidate. Since 2014, the party wherever it is in opposition in states, except Delhi 2015 and Assam 2016, does not announce a CM candidate. It projects PM Modi as a super CM, under whose leadership a custodian for the “double engine” will be appointed after results. This has worked for BJP in many states.

The satisfaction levels with the Baghel government are high at 77 percent as per C-Voter. While PM Modi is also popular, so is Baghel, thus neutralising the leadership advantage of BJP.

In states where there is a towering regional leader like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar, BJP’s Modi card does not earn similar dividends as elsewhere. Baghel’s bonus for paddy and other farmer centric schemes have been a hit with the populace.

BJP is banking on the anti-incumbency against MLAs and trying to make the contest local. It hopes that with a weakened JCC after Ajit Jogi’s death, the voters who switched in 2018 will make a comeback and make the contest interesting.

BJP has denied ticket to one and Congress to 22 of its sitting MLAs (30 percent) to negate local level anti-incumbency. The BJP has fielded a few MPs here as well in line with MP, Rajasthan and Telangana to win some tough seats.

Key Issues

Fair price for paddy cultivators, price rise, strengthening of rural economy, rampant corruption, unemployment and matters pertaining to tribals including rights – protection of jal, jungle and jameen – are the prominent issues of the upcoming polls in the state. Religious conversions are an issue in the South/Bastar region.

Chhattisgarh has the lowest unemployment rate and inflation. Still these two are top two issues indicating Congress government has not been able to communicate effectively to the voters on these points.

Historically Tight Contest

Chhattisgarh was carved out of Madhya Pradesh in the year 2000, and the first election of the state was held in the year 2003. BJP-ruled Chhattisgarh for three terms from 2003 to 2018 under the Chief Ministership of Raman Singh. BJP won 50 seats while Congress 37 in 2003. In 2008 and 2013 a similar performance was repeated. BJP led by 10-13 seats during 2003-13.

In terms of vote share, though, the contest has been very tight with BJP leading by less than 1 to 2.5 percent. BSP bagged more than the margin of BJP’s victory in all these polls recording 4% to 6% vote share.

In 2018, Congress ended BJP’s 15 year rule with a thumping majority. Congress won 68 seats while BJP was reduced to 15 seats. In terms of vote share, Congress won 44 percent and BJP 34 percent vote share. The alliance of BSP and JCC (party of Ajit Jogi who left the Congress to float his own outfit) won seven seats with around 12 percent vote share.

Congress won largely due to the 15-year anti-incumbency against the BJP and fatigue factor with Raman Singh. It also put forward an OBC leadership of Bhupesh Baghel and Tamradwaj Sahu making a massive dent in BJP’s OBC support.

Congress had fought under a combined leadership with TS Singhdeo helping it sweep the north Chhattisgarh belt. Its promise of farm loan waiver and bonus for paddy worked wonders for the party in a state where 80 percent of people are dependent upon farming. The Congress also swept the SC-ST reserved seats winning six/ten SC reserved and 26/29 ST reserved seats.

Tussle for the OBC vote

Chhattisgarh has 43.5 percent OBC population, 32 percent ST, 13 percent SC and 11.5 percent upper caste population. Hindus are 93 percent and minorities including Muslims 7 percent of population. From 2003-18, BJP was winning the state as it was getting majority of the upper caste and OBC votes.

In 2018, OBCs slipped out of the BJP grip due to the Kurmi (to which Baghel belongs) and Sahu (Tamradwaj Sahu’s caste) leadership presented by the Congress party. The Congress ,which was leading amongst SC-ST-Muslims even in 2013, got a fillip from OBC support (48 percent) helping it win a three fourth majority.

Central Chhattisgarh - Biggest Region, Kingmaker

There are primarily three regions in Chhattisgarh. North has 14 seats, Central has 64 and the South 12 seats. The North comprises Ambikapur Division.  The Central region comprises Raipur, Durg and Bilaspur divisions. The South region comprises Bastar division.

The central region is the mining belt, and has the state’s industrial and urban regions. The south is affected by Naxalism. Both north and south are tribal belts with 20 ST reserved seats out of 29 in these two regions. In 2018, Congress swept the northern and southern regions with BJP winning just one of the 26 seats. Even in the central belt, Congress enjoyed a big lead thanks to BSP-JCC making a dent in the BJP vote.

The central region holds the keys to victory in Chhattisgarh and BJP hopes to make gains due to the weakening of JCC.

Manifesto Vs Manifesto

Both Congress and BJP have released their manifestos, and in many ways they are carbon copies of each other. For instance, both are promising LPG cylinders at Rs 500.

While BJP has promised paddy will be procured at Rs 3,100 per quintal, Congress has promised Rs 100 extra. To counter Congress party’s farm loan waiver promise, BJP has promised Rs 10,000 per year to landless agricultural labourers.

An exciting battle is on the cards. Will BJP recover the ground lost in 2018? Or is Baghel on his way to script Congress history by winning a second successive term (the last Congress CM to do this was Lal Thanhawla in Mizoram in 2013).

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.