At the time of writing, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is hovering around 55 seats, comfortably above the majority mark of 45 seats in Chhattisgarh. Vote share data on the Election Commission’s website suggest BJP’s vote share is 46 percent versus 42 percent for Congress.
But in a number of seats, margins are thin. More than half of the present Cabinet’s ministers were trailing. The possibility that some of them can bounce back in the later rounds of the vote count cannot be ruled out. But it is a remarkable performance by the BJP, which in 2018 had trailed Congress by a devastating 10 percentage points.
BJP: Modi Ki Guarantee Works
Only a few months ago, it was the BJP that was perceivably looking in a disarray and there were few encouraging signs for the party and its cadre. To rise from that position and maintain a four percentage point lead in the vote share is a significant feat. The party central leadership needs full credit for putting the BJP campaign back on the rails.
For the BJP, “Modi ki Guarantee” and the party’s manifesto making big poll promises that are guaranteed to be fulfilled won voters over. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face is clearly fetching the party votes.
BJP had not put forth any face in the state under whose leadership the party went into the election. While there were no clearly visible signs of the party doing so well in the elections, the results tell that there was an undercurrent for the party.
The BJP also took special care to neutralise Baghel’s procurement prices for paddy by making its own generous promises on this score. Thus the farm vote that Baghel counted on was also split.
PM Modi’s onslaught citing the Mahadev app also put Congress on the defensive in the last days of campaigning.
Congress Strategies Failed
Congress will be hugely disappointed with its performance. Chhattisgarh was the state which was perceived to be the most comfortable one that was likely to fall into the Congress kitty in this round of elections. CM Baghel’s tough battle in his own seat, Patan, shows how the party got it wrong in the last few months.
The strategy of the Congress party in the last few months to go into the election under a collective leadership plank has backfired. The party which had 71 MLAs out of 90 is now struggling to reach the halfway mark.
The party also failed to anticipate how the religious polarisation in south Chhattisgarh would impact its performance. While the converts were unhappy with Congress for not taking a strong stance on law and order failures, the sections of the tribal community opposed to conversions found solid backing from BJP.
Since 2012, Congress has never won a state that it was an incumbent. In Bhupesh Baghel, it had a potential satrap who seemed capable of leading the party to a successive win. In 2019, Congress could win just two seats in the Lok Sabha polls after the sweep of the assembly polls in 2018.
Congress also needs to review its strategy towards wooing tribal voters. In 2018, the sweep in South and North Chhattisgarh, both tribal dominated, had powered the Congress to its record tally of 68.
It remains to be seen now, how the Congress organisation in Chhattisgarh can recover from this rout and put up a good fight in the Lok Sabha elections that are fast approaching. Even the caste census promise has failed to enthuse a state with a significant OBC population.
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