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Trump Weighs Iran Strike; Global Markets Wobble — Can Nifty Hold 25,500? | Opening Bell

Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to see a flat start on February 20, following gains in GIFT Nifty, which was trading at around 25,403.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

Indian equity markets failed to sustain their early momentum and snapped a three-day gaining streak on February 19, with the Nifty slipping below the 25,400, intraday, amid broad-based selling across sectors. Investor sentiment was further weighed down by escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

At close, the Sensex was down 1,236.11 points or 1.48 percent at 82,498.14, and the Nifty was down 365 points or 1.41 percent at 25,454.35.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Flat)

The GIFT Nifty is trading flat at around 25,403, indicating a muted start for the day.

Asian Equities (Slip)

Asian equities fell as escalating tensions in Iran weighed on sentiment, while oil rose to its highest level since August.



US Equities (Slip)

Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, with losses in private equity companies and weakness in Walmart and Apple, while earnings-driven gains in industrials limited losses.

The Nasdaq declined 0.31% to 22,682.73 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.54% to 49,395.16 points.



Dollar Index (Down)

The dollar was poised on Friday to cap its strongest weekly performance since October, buoyed by a run of better-than-expected economic data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept markets on edge.



US Bond Yield (Down)

The US Treasury 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.06%.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Asian currencies were trading mostly lower in the early trade on Friday, while on year-to-date basis Malaysian Ringgit rose 4%, and Philippines Peso, Thai Baht, China Renminbi, Singapore Dollar added 1% each. However, Indonesian Rupiah shed more than 1%.



Crude (Up)

Oil prices were higher on Friday as concern of conflict between the U.S. and Iran ratcheted up, with Washington saying Tehran will suffer if it does not agree a deal about its nuclear activity within a matter of days.



Gold (Up)

Gold hovered around $5,000 an ounce as traders assessed the latest flareup in geopolitics and the
Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) snapped their two-day buying streak as they sold equities worth Rs 880 crore on February 19. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also ended their five-day buying streak, offloading equities worth Rs 596 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, HCL Tech, Bajaj Finance are among major losers on the Nifty, while gainers are Coal India,  ONGC, L&amp;T, Eicher Motors, Bharat Electronics. Nifty midcap and smallcap indices are trading flat. On the sectoral front, IT index down 1.3% and media index sheds 1%, while PSU Bank index up 0.5%.

Stock Market LIVE Updates: Nifty at 25,600, Sensex up 420 pts; Coal India, BEL, HUL, NTPC top gainers

Live Blog

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, HCL Tech, Bajaj Finance are among major losers on the Nifty, while gainers are Coal India,  ONGC, L&amp;amp;T, Eicher Motors, Bharat Electronics. Nifty midcap and smallcap indices are trading flat. On the sectoral front, IT index down 1.3% and media index sheds 1%, while PSU Bank index up 0.5%.

Valuations reasonable IT services if there are no earnings cut in near term, Q4 earnings to improve incrementally rather than materially outperform recent quarters, Overweight on capital goods, discretionary, automobiles, NBFCs, Have been increasing exposure to banks

* Valuations reasonable IT services if there are no earnings cut in near term
* Q4 earnings to improve incrementally rather than materially outperform recent quarters
* Overweight on capital goods, discretionary, automobiles, NBFCs
* Have been increasing exposure to banks

shorts/business/daily-voice-q4-to-see-gradual-uptick-not-breakout-rally-axis-mf-s-devalkar-bets-on-banks

* Valuations reasonable IT services if there are no earnings cut in near term
* Q4 earnings to improve incrementally rather than materially outperform recent quarters
* Overweight on capital goods, discretionary, automobiles, NBFCs
* Have been increasing exposure to banks

Shreyash Devalkar, the Head of Equity at Axis Mutual Fund, feels Q4 earnings are expected to improve incrementally rather than materially outperform recent quarters.

"The outlook is supported by gradual recovery in domestic demand, easing cost pressures and stable financial conditions, which should aid profitability and visibility," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

After Q3 earnings, he has an overweight rating in capital goods, discretionary, automobiles, NBFCs and has been increasing exposure to banks. "Banks reported healthy profit growth, aided by improvement in core operating performance, stable asset quality trends and a recovery in credit growth," he said.

Do you think global markets are currently overreacting to concerns around IT and AI and their potential impact?

There are limited real-world case studies to support AI cannibalization to traditional software. However, AI scenario is evolving fast, the pace and announcements by AI leaders (Anthropic, Palantir etc) are creating concerns. Based on the information available in the market today, the immediate inference many people draw is that the long term terminal growth of IT services companies is at risk because a large share of repetitive and standardized work will eventually be handled more efficiently by increasingly advanced AI systems, it may lead to low single digit deflation.

Do you believe IT valuations could decline further in the short term?

Post corrections valuations in the context of other sectors in India, are reasonable on FCF (free cash flow) yield basis. However, global IT services companies valuations are more subdued. Hence, if there are no earnings cut in near term, valuations are reasonable.

Have you observed more earnings upgrades than downgrades during the Q3 earnings season? Do you expect Q4 numbers to be significantly better than the previous quarters?

During the Q3 earnings season, the overall trend has tilted modestly in favour of upgrades. While this has not yet turned into a broad based upgrade cycle, earnings expectations have stabilised, with fewer sharp downgrades and selective upgrades driven by better operating performance, margin resilience and steady fundamentals in parts of the domestic economy. That said, downgrades persist in segments facing pricing pressure, global demand headwinds or competitive intensity, keeping the recovery uneven.

Looking ahead, Q4 earnings are expected to improve incrementally rather than materially outperform recent quarters. The outlook is supported by gradual recovery in domestic demand, easing cost pressures and stable financial conditions, which should aid profitability and visibility. The improvement trajectory is in line with expectations that nominal GDP growth will improve from 8% to 10% in next year.

Which sectors have you added to or increased exposure in following the Q3 earnings season?

First let’s talk about results by sectors. The auto OEM segment delivered strong performance, supported by robust revenue momentum and broad based improvement in profitability. Banks reported healthy profit growth, aided by improvement in core operating performance, stable asset quality trends and a recovery in credit growth. Public sector banks saw stronger loan growth, while private banks performed better on net interest income, supported by improvements in loan mix.

Among non bank lenders, select housing finance companies and diversified NBFCs reported strong earnings momentum. The cement sector delivered healthy growth during the December quarter, supported by better-than-expected volume trends, although pricing remained under pressure and overall results were marginally below expectations.

Consumer staples saw an acceleration in growth during the quarter, partly aided by GST rate cuts and EBITDA margins expanded for several companies, driven by easing input cost pressures and improved operating leverage. Within consumer discretionary, segments such as jewellery, internet led businesses, select QSRs and organised retail posted healthy profitability growth.

Electronics manufacturing services companies continued to see strong momentum, supported by robust revenue growth and margin expansion. Oil marketing companies benefited from stronger refining margins, leading to earnings outperformance. The capital goods and infrastructure space delivered better than expected results, supported by margin expansion in construction activities and healthy order inflows.

We have an overweight in capital goods, discretionary, automobiles, NBFCs and have been increasing exposure to banks.

Is this the right time to reduce allocation to precious metals, or should investors continue to stay invested?

The role of precious metals in a well constructed portfolio is less about chasing near term returns and more about providing stability and risk diversification and that role remains highly relevant in the current environment. After the sharp rally, it is reasonable to expect higher volatility and phases of consolidation, rather than a sustained one way move higher, as markets digest gains and respond to macros. That, however, does not dilute the strategic case for holding precious metals. Instead, it reinforces the importance of viewing them as portfolio insurance rather than a return engine.

Investors are better served by maintaining a calibrated, strategic allocation particularly to gold which can help cushion portfolios during periods of equity volatility, geopolitical uncertainty or macro stress, while avoiding the temptation to time short term price movements or treat precious metals as a primary growth asset.

Do you believe there is no need for further rate cuts by the RBI and the Federal Reserve this year?

In our view, the RBI is largely done with rate cuts this year. After a cumulative 125 bps easing since early 2025, policy rates are already accommodative, while growth has remained resilient and broad-based. Moreover, liquidity infusion in last 12 months has been impressive. The RBI has upgraded its growth outlook, next year nominal GDP growth is expected to be 10% vs 8% this year, budgetary capex allocation is good.

Inflation is expected to gradually move back towards the 4% target over the coming quarters, and the policy stance is currently lower for longer. In this backdrop, the central bank’s focus is more likely to be on liquidity management and transmission rather than further rate cuts, unless there is a material downside shock to growth or global financial conditions. Rupee stabilization is good news as well, for stable rates.

For the US Federal Reserve, further cuts are possible but not necessary. Economic growth is holding up and inflation while moderating remains sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious. The Fed may still deliver a single, data-dependent cut if labour markets soften or inflation undershoots, but there is no compelling need to ease further at this stage. However, the correlation between US bonds and Indian bonds is broken to large extent.

Do you expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase until the beginning of the Q4 earnings season?

After the uncertainty overhang on reciprocal tariffs has lifted, markets rebounded. However, with this key trigger out of the way, a phase of consolidation could be likely in the near term. Valuations in growth segment of market are elevated, while in low growth segment they are reasonable. Hence market may continue to undergo consolidation with upward bias as most uncertainties are behind. This is largely driven by an improved earnings outlook going forward and the results so far have been decent.

We expect Nifty 50 earnings to rebound meaningfully with mid-teen growth in FY27 and FY28. Our constructive earnings outlook is underpinned by three key factors: first, an acceleration in nominal GDP growth to around 10% in FY2027 from about 8% in FY2026; second, a recovery in consumption demand from the second half of FY2026, supported by lower GST, income tax and interest rates; and third, stronger export revenues following the anticipated conclusion of the long pending India–US trade agreement. That said, earnings remain vulnerable to downside risks from weaker than expected global growth and potential margin pressures particularly in automobiles and consumer staples arising from raw material costs and/or heightened competition.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Q4 to see gradual uptick, not breakout rally; Axis MF's Devalkar bets on banks

Axis MF's Shreyash Devalkar expects Nifty 50 earnings to rebound meaningfully with mid-teen growth in FY27 and FY28.

Shreyash Devalkar, the Head of Equity at Axis Mutual Fund, feels Q4 earnings are expected to improve incrementally rather than materially outperform recent quarters.

&quot;The outlook is supported by gradual recovery in domestic demand, easing cost pressures and stable financial conditions, which should aid profitability and visibility,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

After Q3 earnings, he has an overweight rating in capital goods, discretionary, automobiles, NBFCs and has been increasing exposure to banks. &quot;Banks reported healthy profit growth, aided by improvement in core operating performance, stable asset quality trends and a recovery in credit growth,&quot; he said.

Do you think global markets are currently overreacting to concerns around IT and AI and their potential impact?

There are limited real-world case studies to support AI cannibalization to traditional software. However, AI scenario is evolving fast, the pace and announcements by AI leaders (Anthropic, Palantir etc) are creating concerns. Based on the information available in the market today, the immediate inference many people draw is that the long term terminal growth of IT services companies is at risk because a large share of repetitive and standardized work will eventually be handled more efficiently by increasingly advanced AI systems, it may lead to low single digit deflation.

Do you believe IT valuations could decline further in the short term?

Post corrections valuations in the context of other sectors in India, are reasonable on FCF (free cash flow) yield basis. However, global IT services companies valuations are more subdued. Hence, if there are no earnings cut in near term, valuations are reasonable.

Have you observed more earnings upgrades than downgrades during the Q3 earnings season? Do you expect Q4 numbers to be significantly better than the previous quarters?

During the Q3 earnings season, the overall trend has tilted modestly in favour of upgrades. While this has not yet turned into a broad based upgrade cycle, earnings expectations have stabilised, with fewer sharp downgrades and selective upgrades driven by better operating performance, margin resilience and steady fundamentals in parts of the domestic economy. That said, downgrades persist in segments facing pricing pressure, global demand headwinds or competitive intensity, keeping the recovery uneven.

Looking ahead, Q4 earnings are expected to improve incrementally rather than materially outperform recent quarters. The outlook is supported by gradual recovery in domestic demand, easing cost pressures and stable financial conditions, which should aid profitability and visibility. The improvement trajectory is in line with expectations that nominal GDP growth will improve from 8% to 10% in next year.

Which sectors have you added to or increased exposure in following the Q3 earnings season?

First let’s talk about results by sectors. The auto OEM segment delivered strong performance, supported by robust revenue momentum and broad based improvement in profitability. Banks reported healthy profit growth, aided by improvement in core operating performance, stable asset quality trends and a recovery in credit growth. Public sector banks saw stronger loan growth, while private banks performed better on net interest income, supported by improvements in loan mix.

Among non bank lenders, select housing finance companies and diversified NBFCs reported strong earnings momentum. The cement sector delivered healthy growth during the December quarter, supported by better-than-expected volume trends, although pricing remained under pressure and overall results were marginally below expectations.

Consumer staples saw an acceleration in growth during the quarter, partly aided by GST rate cuts and EBITDA margins expanded for several companies, driven by easing input cost pressures and improved operating leverage. Within consumer discretionary, segments such as jewellery, internet led businesses, select QSRs and organised retail posted healthy profitability growth.

Electronics manufacturing services companies continued to see strong momentum, supported by robust revenue growth and margin expansion. Oil marketing companies benefited from stronger refining margins, leading to earnings outperformance. The capital goods and infrastructure space delivered better than expected results, supported by margin expansion in construction activities and healthy order inflows.

We have an overweight in capital goods, discretionary, automobiles, NBFCs and have been increasing exposure to banks.

Is this the right time to reduce allocation to precious metals, or should investors continue to stay invested?

The role of precious metals in a well constructed portfolio is less about chasing near term returns and more about providing stability and risk diversification and that role remains highly relevant in the current environment. After the sharp rally, it is reasonable to expect higher volatility and phases of consolidation, rather than a sustained one way move higher, as markets digest gains and respond to macros. That, however, does not dilute the strategic case for holding precious metals. Instead, it reinforces the importance of viewing them as portfolio insurance rather than a return engine.

Investors are better served by maintaining a calibrated, strategic allocation particularly to gold which can help cushion portfolios during periods of equity volatility, geopolitical uncertainty or macro stress, while avoiding the temptation to time short term price movements or treat precious metals as a primary growth asset.

Do you believe there is no need for further rate cuts by the RBI and the Federal Reserve this year?

In our view, the RBI is largely done with rate cuts this year. After a cumulative 125 bps easing since early 2025, policy rates are already accommodative, while growth has remained resilient and broad-based. Moreover, liquidity infusion in last 12 months has been impressive. The RBI has upgraded its growth outlook, next year nominal GDP growth is expected to be 10% vs 8% this year, budgetary capex allocation is good.

Inflation is expected to gradually move back towards the 4% target over the coming quarters, and the policy stance is currently lower for longer. In this backdrop, the central bank’s focus is more likely to be on liquidity management and transmission rather than further rate cuts, unless there is a material downside shock to growth or global financial conditions. Rupee stabilization is good news as well, for stable rates.

For the US Federal Reserve, further cuts are possible but not necessary. Economic growth is holding up and inflation while moderating remains sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious. The Fed may still deliver a single, data-dependent cut if labour markets soften or inflation undershoots, but there is no compelling need to ease further at this stage. However, the correlation between US bonds and Indian bonds is broken to large extent.

Do you expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase until the beginning of the Q4 earnings season?

After the uncertainty overhang on reciprocal tariffs has lifted, markets rebounded. However, with this key trigger out of the way, a phase of consolidation could be likely in the near term. Valuations in growth segment of market are elevated, while in low growth segment they are reasonable. Hence market may continue to undergo consolidation with upward bias as most uncertainties are behind. This is largely driven by an improved earnings outlook going forward and the results so far have been decent.

We expect Nifty 50 earnings to rebound meaningfully with mid-teen growth in FY27 and FY28. Our constructive earnings outlook is underpinned by three key factors: first, an acceleration in nominal GDP growth to around 10% in FY2027 from about 8% in FY2026; second, a recovery in consumption demand from the second half of FY2026, supported by lower GST, income tax and interest rates; and third, stronger export revenues following the anticipated conclusion of the long pending India–US trade agreement. That said, earnings remain vulnerable to downside risks from weaker than expected global growth and potential margin pressures particularly in automobiles and consumer staples arising from raw material costs and/or heightened competition.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty snapped its three-session recovery streak, witnessing aggressive and broad-based selling pressure, Nifty formsa bearish engulfing candle and reinforcing range-bound action with active bulls and bears at both ends, Bank Nifty retains superior relative strength versus Nifty 50

* Nifty snapped its three-session recovery streak, witnessing aggressive and broad-based selling pressure
* Nifty formsa bearish engulfing candle and reinforcing range-bound action with active bulls and bears at both ends
* Bank Nifty retains superior relative strength versus Nifty 50

shorts/business/trading-plan-will-nifty-defend-25-400-bank-nifty-sustain-above-60-500-amid-consolidation

* Nifty snapped its three-session recovery streak, witnessing aggressive and broad-based selling pressure
* Nifty formsa bearish engulfing candle and reinforcing range-bound action with active bulls and bears at both ends
* Bank Nifty retains superior relative strength versus Nifty 50

Bears have taken charge of the market, dragging the Nifty 50 decisively below all key moving averages (except the 200 DEMA) and close to Monday's low. Momentum has weakened, and the VIX spiked above the 13 zone. If the Nifty 50 fails to defend the 25,400–25,350 zone, the 25,300–25,200 range (200 DEMA and 200 SMA) cannot be ruled out in the next few sessions. However, holding above this zone could possibly take the index toward the 25,500–25,600 range. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to defend Thursday's low (60,592) for a rebound toward the 61,000–61,200 zone, but a fall below this level could drag the banking index down toward 60,500–60,300, according to experts.

On February 19, the Nifty 50 tanked 365 points (-1.41 percent) to 25,454, while the Bank Nifty slipped 811 points (-1.3 percent) to 60,740. Bears dominated market breadth, with about 2,235 shares witnessing selling pressure against 687 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

The Nifty snapped its three-session recovery streak, witnessing aggressive and broad-based selling pressure that decisively shifted momentum in favour of the bears. The index breached the crucial 25,500 support level, disrupting its higher-low structure and exposing the key 25,300–25,350 demand zone, which now acts as the immediate make-or-break region. A sustained move below this band could accelerate long unwinding.

Technically, the index has slipped below its 10- and 20-day EMAs, indicating weakening short-term momentum, while 25,600 has emerged as a strong resistance zone. In the derivatives space, heavy Call writing at 25,800 suggests capped upside potential, whereas 25,000 Put open interest provides a near-term cushion. The bias remains “sell on rise” unless 25,600 is reclaimed decisively.

Key Resistance: 25,550, 25,650, 25,800

Key Support: 25,350, 25,230, 25,100

Strategy: Traders may consider the Bear Call Spread for the February 24 expiry by selling one lot of 25,200 CE at Rs 286 and buying one lot of 25,450 CE at Rs 127. This setup is designed to capitalize on potential downside momentum.

Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 5,941 to ensure disciplined risk management.

Target: Hold this strategy, aiming for a maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) profit of Rs 10,309, while considering profit booking once MTM gains exceed Rs 6,000.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

The Nifty formed a bearish island reversal pattern last week (February 9–12 candles isolated by gaps on both sides), establishing a firm ceiling that has repeatedly capped upside attempts. On February 16, a strong bullish engulfing candle appeared at lower levels, providing solid downside support. In the latest session, the price was rejected at 25,850, forming a bearish engulfing candle and reinforcing range-bound action with active bulls and bears at both ends.

A decisive breakout in either direction is expected to unleash a significant move. The current defined range is 25,320–26,090. The bias leans mildly negative unless 26,090 is broken convincingly on the upside.

Key Resistance: 25,550, 25,700, 25,850

Key Support: 25,320, 25,000, 24,640

Strategy: Maintain a mildly negative bias; initiate shorts only on a breakdown below 25,320. After the breakdown of 25,320, rallies up to 25,700 could be viewed as selling opportunities, with a stop-loss at 25,940, targeting 25,000 and 24,640.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is placed in the 25,800–25,900 zone, while crucial support is seen in the 25,200–25,250 range.

The daily RSI, currently at 45.60, reflects weakening momentum, while a 10.12 percent surge in India VIX to 13.46 signals rising market uncertainty and growing nervousness among participants. On the derivatives front, significant Put writing is visible at the 25,400 strike, with heavy Call writing at the 25,600 strike, defining a near-term consolidation range. As long as Nifty futures continue to close below 25,500, a “sell on rise” strategy remains technically valid, with a strict stop-loss placed at 25,750.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 25,900

Key Support: 25,200, 25,250

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near the 25,500 level, targeting 25,200–25,250, with a stop-loss of 25,750 on a closing basis.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

The Bank Nifty retains superior relative strength versus the Nifty but has developed a double-top pattern near the 61,700–61,765 zone (first top on the trade deal announcement, second at the latest session high). The latest candle delivered a strong bearish engulfing pattern, signaling early exhaustion at highs. The price remains above key EMAs, and momentum indicators stay in bullish territory; however, price action shows fading upside momentum.

Upside is capped at the strong resistance of 61,765. The defined range is 59,700–61,765. A decisive break either way will dictate the next directional move. The bias is mildly negative unless 61,765 is reclaimed decisively.

Key Resistance: 61,160, 61,765

Key Support: 60,300, 59,940, 59,700

Strategy: Hold existing longs with a stop-loss at 60,400, and initiate shorts only on a breakdown below 59,700 with a stop-loss at 60,500, targeting 59,250 and 59,000. If 61,765 breaks decisively on the upside, bullish momentum could resume.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

The Bank Nifty clearly indicated a shift toward bearish sentiment and selling dominance. From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is placed in the 61,000–61,100 zone, while the 60,200–60,100 band continues to act as a crucial support area for maintaining near-term stability.

The daily RSI, currently at 55.53, reflects weakening momentum despite remaining in the neutral-to-positive zone. As long as Bank Nifty futures sustain below 60,700 on a closing basis, a selective “sell on rise” strategy remains technically valid, with a strict stop-loss placed at 61,200.

Key Resistance: 61,000, 61,100

Key Support: 60,200, 60,100

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a rise near the 60,700 level, targeting 60,200–60,100, with a stop-loss of 61,200 on a closing basis.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty Bank witnessed sharp distribution after failing to sustain near record highs, reversing recent gains and slipping below the critical 61,000 mark. The move confirms a developing double-top pattern and weakens the short-term structure. Immediate support lies in the 60,600–60,500 zone, aligned with the 10-day EMA; a breach could intensify selling pressure toward the 60,000 psychological level.

On the upside, 61,200 has emerged as firm resistance. Derivatives positioning reflects caution, with aggressive Call writing at 61,000 capping rallies, while 60,500 Put open interest offers near-term support. The bias remains tilted lower, favouring a sell-on-strength approach.

Key Resistance: 61,000, 61,200, 61,400

Key Support: 60,500, 60,300, 60,100

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Will Nifty defend 25,400, Bank Nifty sustain above 60,500 amid consolidation?

Bears have taken charge of the market, dragging the Nifty 50 decisively below all key moving averages (except the 200 DEMA) and close to Monday's low. Momentum has weakened, and the VIX spiked above the 13 zone. If the Nifty 50 fails to defend the 25,400–25,350 zone, the 25,300–25,200 range (200 DEMA and 200 SMA) cannot be ruled out in the next few sessions. However, holding above this zone could possibly take the index toward the 25,500–25,600 range. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to defend Thursday's low (60,592) for a rebound toward the 61,000–61,200 zone, but a fall below this level could drag the banking index down toward 60,500–60,300, according to experts.

On February 19, the Nifty 50 tanked 365 points (-1.41 percent) to 25,454, while the Bank Nifty slipped 811 points (-1.3 percent) to 60,740. Bears dominated market breadth, with about 2,235 shares witnessing selling pressure against 687 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

The Nifty snapped its three-session recovery streak, witnessing aggressive and broad-based selling pressure that decisively shifted momentum in favour of the bears. The index breached the crucial 25,500 support level, disrupting its higher-low structure and exposing the key 25,300–25,350 demand zone, which now acts as the immediate make-or-break region. A sustained move below this band could accelerate long unwinding.

Technically, the index has slipped below its 10- and 20-day EMAs, indicating weakening short-term momentum, while 25,600 has emerged as a strong resistance zone. In the derivatives space, heavy Call writing at 25,800 suggests capped upside potential, whereas 25,000 Put open interest provides a near-term cushion. The bias remains “sell on rise” unless 25,600 is reclaimed decisively.

Key Resistance: 25,550, 25,650, 25,800

Key Support: 25,350, 25,230, 25,100

Strategy: Traders may consider the Bear Call Spread for the February 24 expiry by selling one lot of 25,200 CE at Rs 286 and buying one lot of 25,450 CE at Rs 127. This setup is designed to capitalize on potential downside momentum.

Stop-Loss: Hold this strategy strictly, with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 5,941 to ensure disciplined risk management.

Target: Hold this strategy, aiming for a maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) profit of Rs 10,309, while considering profit booking once MTM gains exceed Rs 6,000.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

The Nifty formed a bearish island reversal pattern last week (February 9–12 candles isolated by gaps on both sides), establishing a firm ceiling that has repeatedly capped upside attempts. On February 16, a strong bullish engulfing candle appeared at lower levels, providing solid downside support. In the latest session, the price was rejected at 25,850, forming a bearish engulfing candle and reinforcing range-bound action with active bulls and bears at both ends.

A decisive breakout in either direction is expected to unleash a significant move. The current defined range is 25,320–26,090. The bias leans mildly negative unless 26,090 is broken convincingly on the upside.

Key Resistance: 25,550, 25,700, 25,850

Key Support: 25,320, 25,000, 24,640

Strategy: Maintain a mildly negative bias; initiate shorts only on a breakdown below 25,320. After the breakdown of 25,320, rallies up to 25,700 could be viewed as selling opportunities, with a stop-loss at 25,940, targeting 25,000 and 24,640.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is placed in the 25,800–25,900 zone, while crucial support is seen in the 25,200–25,250 range.

The daily RSI, currently at 45.60, reflects weakening momentum, while a 10.12 percent surge in India VIX to 13.46 signals rising market uncertainty and growing nervousness among participants. On the derivatives front, significant Put writing is visible at the 25,400 strike, with heavy Call writing at the 25,600 strike, defining a near-term consolidation range. As long as Nifty futures continue to close below 25,500, a “sell on rise” strategy remains technically valid, with a strict stop-loss placed at 25,750.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 25,900

Key Support: 25,200, 25,250

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on a rise near the 25,500 level, targeting 25,200–25,250, with a stop-loss of 25,750 on a closing basis.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

The Bank Nifty retains superior relative strength versus the Nifty but has developed a double-top pattern near the 61,700–61,765 zone (first top on the trade deal announcement, second at the latest session high). The latest candle delivered a strong bearish engulfing pattern, signaling early exhaustion at highs. The price remains above key EMAs, and momentum indicators stay in bullish territory; however, price action shows fading upside momentum.

Upside is capped at the strong resistance of 61,765. The defined range is 59,700–61,765. A decisive break either way will dictate the next directional move. The bias is mildly negative unless 61,765 is reclaimed decisively.

Key Resistance: 61,160, 61,765

Key Support: 60,300, 59,940, 59,700

Strategy: Hold existing longs with a stop-loss at 60,400, and initiate shorts only on a breakdown below 59,700 with a stop-loss at 60,500, targeting 59,250 and 59,000. If 61,765 breaks decisively on the upside, bullish momentum could resume.

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking

The Bank Nifty clearly indicated a shift toward bearish sentiment and selling dominance. From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is placed in the 61,000–61,100 zone, while the 60,200–60,100 band continues to act as a crucial support area for maintaining near-term stability.

The daily RSI, currently at 55.53, reflects weakening momentum despite remaining in the neutral-to-positive zone. As long as Bank Nifty futures sustain below 60,700 on a closing basis, a selective “sell on rise” strategy remains technically valid, with a strict stop-loss placed at 61,200.

Key Resistance: 61,000, 61,100

Key Support: 60,200, 60,100

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures on a rise near the 60,700 level, targeting 60,200–60,100, with a stop-loss of 61,200 on a closing basis.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty Bank witnessed sharp distribution after failing to sustain near record highs, reversing recent gains and slipping below the critical 61,000 mark. The move confirms a developing double-top pattern and weakens the short-term structure. Immediate support lies in the 60,600–60,500 zone, aligned with the 10-day EMA; a breach could intensify selling pressure toward the 60,000 psychological level.

On the upside, 61,200 has emerged as firm resistance. Derivatives positioning reflects caution, with aggressive Call writing at 61,000 capping rallies, while 60,500 Put open interest offers near-term support. The bias remains tilted lower, favouring a sell-on-strength approach.

Key Resistance: 61,000, 61,200, 61,400

Key Support: 60,500, 60,300, 60,100

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

10 out of 18 years NIFTY IT has given negative returns in February.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	32,926.02	33,532.63	33,897.67	32,560.98	31,954.37	31,589.33	30,982.72
Fibonacci	32,932.15	33,161.46	33,532.63	32,560.98	32,189.81	31,960.50	31,589.33
Camarilla	32,408.47	32,497.54	32,586.60	32,560.98	32,230.33	32,141.26	32,052.20

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