NIFTY IT

Union Budget likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints, Budget may see 11–13% capex increase, RBI to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in Feb, Markets not expecting a massive giveaway this year

* Union Budget likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints
* Budget may see 11–13% capex increase
* RBI to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in Feb
* Markets not expecting a massive giveaway this year

shorts/business/daily-voice-budget-may-see-11-13-capex-increase-rbi-to-prioritise-liquidity-support-in-feb-says-equentis-jaspreet

* Union Budget likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints
* Budget may see 11–13% capex increase
* RBI to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in Feb
* Markets not expecting a massive giveaway this year

Jaspreet Singh Arora, the Chief Investment Officer at Equentis Wealth Advisory Services expects a “continuity budget” that reinforce what’s already working.

"It implies a 11-13% boost in capital expenditures and a push to make India a manufacturing powerhouse through better incentives for AI and semiconductors besides a major push for sunrise industries like defence, electronics, AI, nuclear energy, and critical minerals through PLI schemes," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in its February policy. Recent actions already point in this direction, he said.

What are the biggest challenges for equity markets in the short term? Do you think Donald Trump poses the biggest challenge for the global economy?

President Trump’s uncertain and aggressive tariff policies and geopolitical ambitions represent the foremost short-term threat to equity markets, sparking widespread global trade disruptions and eroding investor confidence. This has triggered relentless FII selling, with over Rs 40,000 crore offloaded from Indian markets in January 2026 alone.

This outflow is further aided by sharp rupee depreciation to record lows near 91.97/USD, which spikes importer hedging costs, clouds earnings visibility, and intensifies the capital flight from India Inc. The interplay of tariff jitters and currency weakness creates a vicious cycle, stifling fresh inflows and amplifying volatility. Domestic DII inflows provide a stabilizing force alongside an earnings uptick, though its sustainability remains a key monitorable.

Do you expect the Union Budget to be reform-oriented under the Finance Minister?

Yes—the Union Budget is likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints. The government is expected to pause further fiscal consolidation (keeping the deficit near 4.4% of GDP) and re-orient spending toward capex and development outlays, with capex growth in the low-teens and higher allocations for defence, infrastructure, energy transition, electronics, and critical minerals.

Beyond fiscal math, reforms are likely to focus on deregulation, ease of doing business, PSU disinvestment, credit-guarantee schemes, and PLI extensions into areas like AI, robotics, and semiconductors. The emphasis is on crowding in private investment rather than announcing large tax giveaways. Overall, we expect a pragmatic, reform-led budget aimed at medium-term productivity and investment rather than short-term stimulus.

What do you think could be the core focus areas of the Union Budget, considering current domestic and global factors?

India is entering FY27 from a position of solid growth- 7.4% real GDP growth in FY26E and stable inflation of around 2%. We expect a “continuity budget” that reinforce what’s already working. It implies a 11% to 13% boost in capital expenditures and a push to make India a manufacturing powerhouse through better incentives for AI and semiconductors besides a major push for sunrise industries like defence, electronics, AI, nuclear energy, and critical minerals through PLI schemes.

The government’s priority is long-term health and thus aims to bring debt down debt-to-GDP ratio from 81% currently to about 50% by FY31, with the fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP in FY27.

Do you expect the Finance Minister to announce additional measures for sectors affected by tariffs?

Markets are not expecting a massive giveaway this year, instead we are expecting a more targeted relief. The budget will likely offer tax credits and incentives specifically for MSMEs and export heavy sectors that are feeling the squeeze of Trump tariffs.

However, the budget is only a part of larger equation. To protect domestic businesses from tariff wars, the government is already pursuing a "diversify and defend" strategy. This includes fast tracking trade deals with partners like the UK and Oman, and much anticipated EU agreement often called the "mother of all trade deals" to structurally reduce our dependence on USA. In addition to this Export Promotion Mission (outlay of Rs 25,060 crore) are being introduced to mitigate the tariffs impact.

Is this the right time to accumulate stocks in the IT sector?

Yes, this is an opportune time to accumulate IT sector stocks. Recent corrections have brought Nifty IT valuations to a reasonable P/E of around 27x, down from peaks of 37x in December 2024 and below 3-year average of 29x. Despite Q3FY26's anticipated seasonal softness, results for large cap IT and select mid-caps have fared better than street estimates.

AI-driven deal ramp-ups are gaining pace, enterprise tech refresh cycles are picking up, and analysts now forecast 6-8% USD revenue growth into FY27, significantly ahead of prior consensus estimates of 3-4%. With the cyclical slowdown bottoming out, furlough impacts fading, and demand from the US and Europe holding firm despite tariff uncertainties, CY2026 is poised to mark the beginning of a recovery phase for Indian IT services players.

What could be the possible outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for next week?

The Fed’s current stance shows a growing confidence in the US economy’s ability to grow steadily, even as inflation hovers slightly above that 2% goal. Because growth remains so solid, price pressures aren't cooling as fast as some hoped, with projections suggesting they could linger through 2028.

At the same time, the job market is proving incredibly resilient, with unemployment likely holding steady at around 4.5%. While this means immediate rate cuts are off the table, most experts still see at least two cuts coming later this year once inflation finally turns a corner.

Do you think the RBI is likely to focus more on liquidity support and rate transmission rather than monetary easing in its February policy meeting?

RBI is more likely to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in its February policy. Recent actions already point in this direction. Current market assumptions point to only a terminal 25 bp cut, with limited marginal benefit from further easing. Despite ~125-bp of cumulative cuts, 10-year G-sec yields have barely declined, indicating weak transmission.

Over the past few weeks, the RBI has stepped up open market operations (OMOs) and conducted variable rate repo (VRR) and reverse repo (VRRR) auctions to manage tight system liquidity. It has also used USD/INR swap windows to offset liquidity drains caused by forex market interventions.

At the same time, India’s 10-year G-sec yield has remained sticky around 6.6–6.7%, barely easing despite cumulative policy rate cuts, reflecting weak transmission and heavy government bond supply. With large Centre and State borrowings ahead (~Rs 29.7 trillion in FY27E), the RBI’s most effective tools are likely to be liquidity injections, OMOs, and corridor fine-tuning, with only a modest, final rate cut as a secondary option.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Daily Voice: Budget may see 11–13% capex increase, RBI to prioritise liquidity support in Feb, says Equentis' Jaspreet

Daily Voice: Budget may see 11–13% capex increase, RBI to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in Feb, says Equentis' Jaspreet

Jaspreet Singh Arora, the Chief Investment Officer at Equentis Wealth Advisory Services expects a “continuity budget” that reinforce what’s already working.

&quot;It implies a 11-13% boost in capital expenditures and a push to make India a manufacturing powerhouse through better incentives for AI and semiconductors besides a major push for sunrise industries like defence, electronics, AI, nuclear energy, and critical minerals through PLI schemes,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in its February policy. Recent actions already point in this direction, he said.

What are the biggest challenges for equity markets in the short term? Do you think Donald Trump poses the biggest challenge for the global economy?

President Trump’s uncertain and aggressive tariff policies and geopolitical ambitions represent the foremost short-term threat to equity markets, sparking widespread global trade disruptions and eroding investor confidence. This has triggered relentless FII selling, with over Rs 40,000 crore offloaded from Indian markets in January 2026 alone.

This outflow is further aided by sharp rupee depreciation to record lows near 91.97/USD, which spikes importer hedging costs, clouds earnings visibility, and intensifies the capital flight from India Inc. The interplay of tariff jitters and currency weakness creates a vicious cycle, stifling fresh inflows and amplifying volatility. Domestic DII inflows provide a stabilizing force alongside an earnings uptick, though its sustainability remains a key monitorable.

Do you expect the Union Budget to be reform-oriented under the Finance Minister?

Yes—the Union Budget is likely to be reform-oriented, though within tight fiscal constraints. The government is expected to pause further fiscal consolidation (keeping the deficit near 4.4% of GDP) and re-orient spending toward capex and development outlays, with capex growth in the low-teens and higher allocations for defence, infrastructure, energy transition, electronics, and critical minerals.

Beyond fiscal math, reforms are likely to focus on deregulation, ease of doing business, PSU disinvestment, credit-guarantee schemes, and PLI extensions into areas like AI, robotics, and semiconductors. The emphasis is on crowding in private investment rather than announcing large tax giveaways. Overall, we expect a pragmatic, reform-led budget aimed at medium-term productivity and investment rather than short-term stimulus.

What do you think could be the core focus areas of the Union Budget, considering current domestic and global factors?

India is entering FY27 from a position of solid growth- 7.4% real GDP growth in FY26E and stable inflation of around 2%. We expect a “continuity budget” that reinforce what’s already working. It implies a 11% to 13% boost in capital expenditures and a push to make India a manufacturing powerhouse through better incentives for AI and semiconductors besides a major push for sunrise industries like defence, electronics, AI, nuclear energy, and critical minerals through PLI schemes.

The government’s priority is long-term health and thus aims to bring debt down debt-to-GDP ratio from 81% currently to about 50% by FY31, with the fiscal deficit to 4.4% of GDP in FY27.

Do you expect the Finance Minister to announce additional measures for sectors affected by tariffs?

Markets are not expecting a massive giveaway this year, instead we are expecting a more targeted relief. The budget will likely offer tax credits and incentives specifically for MSMEs and export heavy sectors that are feeling the squeeze of Trump tariffs.

However, the budget is only a part of larger equation. To protect domestic businesses from tariff wars, the government is already pursuing a &quot;diversify and defend&quot; strategy. This includes fast tracking trade deals with partners like the UK and Oman, and much anticipated EU agreement often called the &quot;mother of all trade deals&quot; to structurally reduce our dependence on USA. In addition to this Export Promotion Mission (outlay of Rs 25,060 crore) are being introduced to mitigate the tariffs impact.

Is this the right time to accumulate stocks in the IT sector?

Yes, this is an opportune time to accumulate IT sector stocks. Recent corrections have brought Nifty IT valuations to a reasonable P/E of around 27x, down from peaks of 37x in December 2024 and below 3-year average of 29x. Despite Q3FY26's anticipated seasonal softness, results for large cap IT and select mid-caps have fared better than street estimates.

AI-driven deal ramp-ups are gaining pace, enterprise tech refresh cycles are picking up, and analysts now forecast 6-8% USD revenue growth into FY27, significantly ahead of prior consensus estimates of 3-4%. With the cyclical slowdown bottoming out, furlough impacts fading, and demand from the US and Europe holding firm despite tariff uncertainties, CY2026 is poised to mark the beginning of a recovery phase for Indian IT services players.

What could be the possible outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for next week?

The Fed’s current stance shows a growing confidence in the US economy’s ability to grow steadily, even as inflation hovers slightly above that 2% goal. Because growth remains so solid, price pressures aren't cooling as fast as some hoped, with projections suggesting they could linger through 2028.

At the same time, the job market is proving incredibly resilient, with unemployment likely holding steady at around 4.5%. While this means immediate rate cuts are off the table, most experts still see at least two cuts coming later this year once inflation finally turns a corner.

Do you think the RBI is likely to focus more on liquidity support and rate transmission rather than monetary easing in its February policy meeting?

RBI is more likely to prioritise liquidity support and rate transmission over outright monetary easing in its February policy. Recent actions already point in this direction. Current market assumptions point to only a terminal 25 bp cut, with limited marginal benefit from further easing. Despite ~125-bp of cumulative cuts, 10-year G-sec yields have barely declined, indicating weak transmission.

Over the past few weeks, the RBI has stepped up open market operations (OMOs) and conducted variable rate repo (VRR) and reverse repo (VRRR) auctions to manage tight system liquidity. It has also used USD/INR swap windows to offset liquidity drains caused by forex market interventions.

At the same time, India’s 10-year G-sec yield has remained sticky around 6.6–6.7%, barely easing despite cumulative policy rate cuts, reflecting weak transmission and heavy government bond supply. With large Centre and State borrowings ahead (~Rs 29.7 trillion in FY27E), the RBI’s most effective tools are likely to be liquidity injections, OMOs, and corridor fine-tuning, with only a modest, final rate cut as a secondary option.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex and Nifty fell around 2.5 percent this week amid bearish market sentiment, Nifty slipped below key moving averages; support seen at 24,750–24,900 levels, Market outlook cautious due to global signals and domestic fiscal cues.

* Sensex and Nifty fell around 2.5 percent this week amid bearish market sentiment
* Nifty slipped below key moving averages; support seen at 24,750–24,900 levels
* Market outlook cautious due to global signals and domestic fiscal cues.

Sensex and Nifty fell about 2.5% this week, with Nifty slipping below key moving averages. Analysts see further downside toward 24,700, with resistance at 25,400-25,500. Market sentiment remains cautious amid global trade tensions and investor outflows.

shorts/business/sensex-nifty-fell-2-5-this-week-where-can-one-go-long-in-this-choppy-market-check-what-experts-say

* Sensex and Nifty fell around 2.5 percent this week amid bearish market sentiment
* Nifty slipped below key moving averages; support seen at 24,750–24,900 levels
* Market outlook cautious due to global signals and domestic fiscal cues.

Indian benchmark indices <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/SENSEX-4.html">Sensex</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html">Nifty</a> declined around 2.5 percent each this week, as bears took control over Dalal Street. Analysts have weighed on the all-important key levels to watch out for, especially on the long side.

Nifty 50 declined around 645 points during the week to close at 25,048.65 on January 23. Sensex, meanwhile, fell nearly 2,033 points during the same period to end the week at 81,537.7. The benchmark indices recorded the steepest steepest weekly drop in four months.

Nifty has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500, according to the analyst. However, on the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and lower low, which highlights the continuation of downward bias for the third week in a row, said Bajaj Broking. The domestic brokerage added that a pullback attempt during the week meet with strong selling pressure as the index closed around the 52 weeks EMA.

"Nifty is currently placed around the lower band of the rising channel of the last seven months which also coincides with the 52 weeks EMA placed around 25,000-24,800 levels. A breach below the same will signal extension of the decline towards 24600-24,500 levels," Bajaj Broking said.

Weekly stochastic is approaching oversold territory after 1400 points decline in just 14 sessions, it added. The brokerage sees Nifty seeing some consolidation in the range of 24,800-25,500 in the coming weeks, if it holds above the support area of 25,000-24,800.

On the higher side, it sees 25,400-25,500 as the immediate resistance for the coming weeks.

Technically, the Nifty has slipped below its long-term moving average, the 200 DEMA, which signals the possibility of further downside, said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking. The 24,750–24,900 zone now emerges as the next key support area, while the 25,300–25,400 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle in case of any rebound, the analyst said.

Mishra however noted that select pockets continue to show resilience and are offering buying opportunities. “In this environment, participants are advised to maintain a selective and balanced approach, take positions on both sides based on sectoral strength and weakness, and keep a strict check on position sizing,” he said.

“In the Nifty options space, the highest call open interest was seen at the 25,300 and 25,500 strike prices, suggesting strong resistance levels, while the 25,000 strike held the maximum put open interest, acting as a key support. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stood at 0.58. Overall, the market closed on a weak note, with sentiment remaining fragile amid currency pressure and cautious positioning in the derivatives market,” said Ashika Institutional Equities.
<h3>What lies ahead?</h3>
Indian equity markets remained cautious and volatile through the week, pressured by renewed global trade tensions and continued foreign investor outflows, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. He added that fresh US tariff threats during the week against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. “Moreover, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs further restrained risk-taking,” he said.

Speaking about what lies ahead, Nair said that market direction in the coming week will likely be driven by global macroeconomic signals and domestic fiscal expectations. He said that investors will closely track guidance from the US Federal Reserve on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows.

“With the Q3 earnings season still underway, stock-specific movements are expected to remain prominent. Overall sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand,” he added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex, Nifty fell 2.5% this week: Where can one go long in this choppy market? Check what experts say

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined around 2.5 percent each this week, as bears took control over Dalal Street. Analysts have weighed on the all-important key levels to watch out for, especially on the long side.

Nifty 50 declined around 645 points during the week to close at 25,048.65 on January 23. Sensex, meanwhile, fell nearly 2,033 points during the same period to end the week at 81,537.7. The benchmark indices recorded the steepest steepest weekly drop in four months.

Nifty has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500, according to the analyst. However, on the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a sizable bearish candle with a lower high and lower low, which highlights the continuation of downward bias for the third week in a row, said Bajaj Broking. The domestic brokerage added that a pullback attempt during the week meet with strong selling pressure as the index closed around the 52 weeks EMA.

&quot;Nifty is currently placed around the lower band of the rising channel of the last seven months which also coincides with the 52 weeks EMA placed around 25,000-24,800 levels. A breach below the same will signal extension of the decline towards 24600-24,500 levels,&quot; Bajaj Broking said.

Weekly stochastic is approaching oversold territory after 1400 points decline in just 14 sessions, it added. The brokerage sees Nifty seeing some consolidation in the range of 24,800-25,500 in the coming weeks, if it holds above the support area of 25,000-24,800.

On the higher side, it sees 25,400-25,500 as the immediate resistance for the coming weeks.

Technically, the Nifty has slipped below its long-term moving average, the 200 DEMA, which signals the possibility of further downside, said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking. The 24,750–24,900 zone now emerges as the next key support area, while the 25,300–25,400 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle in case of any rebound, the analyst said.

Mishra however noted that select pockets continue to show resilience and are offering buying opportunities. “In this environment, participants are advised to maintain a selective and balanced approach, take positions on both sides based on sectoral strength and weakness, and keep a strict check on position sizing,” he said.

“In the Nifty options space, the highest call open interest was seen at the 25,300 and 25,500 strike prices, suggesting strong resistance levels, while the 25,000 strike held the maximum put open interest, acting as a key support. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stood at 0.58. Overall, the market closed on a weak note, with sentiment remaining fragile amid currency pressure and cautious positioning in the derivatives market,” said Ashika Institutional Equities.
What lies ahead?
Indian equity markets remained cautious and volatile through the week, pressured by renewed global trade tensions and continued foreign investor outflows, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments. He added that fresh US tariff threats during the week against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. “Moreover, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs further restrained risk-taking,” he said.

Speaking about what lies ahead, Nair said that market direction in the coming week will likely be driven by global macroeconomic signals and domestic fiscal expectations. He said that investors will closely track guidance from the US Federal Reserve on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows.

“With the Q3 earnings season still underway, stock-specific movements are expected to remain prominent. Overall sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand,” he added.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Bears to tighten grip if Nifty 50 breaks 24,900 next week, Bank Nifty slips decisively below 58,800 as VIX at fresh 7-month closing high, Weekly options data suggested that Nifty 50 likely to trade within broad range of 24,500–25,500

* Bears to tighten grip if Nifty 50 breaks 24,900 next week
* Bank Nifty slips decisively below 58,800 as VIX at fresh 7-month closing high
* Weekly options data suggested that Nifty 50 likely to trade within broad range of 24,500–25,500

shorts/business/technical-view-bears-to-tighten-grip-if-nifty-50-breaks-24-900-next-week-bank-nifty-slips-decisively-below-58-800-as-vix-at-fresh-7-month-closing-high

* Bears to tighten grip if Nifty 50 breaks 24,900 next week
* Bank Nifty slips decisively below 58,800 as VIX at fresh 7-month closing high
* Weekly options data suggested that Nifty 50 likely to trade within broad range of 24,500–25,500

The Nifty 50 failed to add further gains over the previous session, plunging nearly 1 percent as bears tightened their grip on the market on January 23. The index shed 2.51 percent (646 points) for the week, marking the biggest weekly decline since September 2025. Considering the sell signals in momentum indicators and the rise in VIX to a fresh seven-month closing high, bearish sentiment may prevail during the budget week.

The benchmark index decisively closed below the 200-day EMA. As a result, it is now trading below all key moving averages, with the 10-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs trending downward. The 100-day EMA has also moderately turned down, while the 200-day DEMA remains flat.

If the index sustains below the 200-day DEMA (25,163), a break below 24,900 (the week’s low) cannot be ruled out next week, followed by 24,600, which is a crucial support zone. However, in the case of a bounce back amid likely consolidation, the 200-day DEMA is expected to act as an immediate hurdle, followed by 25,300–25,350 as a crucial resistance zone, experts said.

The Nifty 50 opened higher above 25,300 but could not sustain those levels for long and lost all gains within the first hour itself. The index extended its fall as the day progressed and hit an intraday low of 25,025 before closing 241 points (0.95 percent) lower at 25,049.

The index also violated its rising trendline support and formed a long bearish candle on both daily and weekly charts, signalling weakness. Momentum indicators also flashed sell signals on the daily and weekly timeframes. The daily RSI stood at 29.12, while the MACD maintained bearish crossovers with weakness in the histogram. However, the Stochastic RSI remained positive in the oversold zone.

“While a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out, the Nifty would need to decisively reclaim the 25,300 level to trigger any meaningful short-covering rally towards the 25,600 zone. On the downside, a breach below 25,000 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 24,800 levels,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking.

Further adding to the cautious undertone, India VIX surged 6.3 percent to close at 14.19, signalling elevated market uncertainty. The VIX rallied 24.8 percent for the week, extending its uptrend for the fourth consecutive week and indicating greater caution for bulls.

Ahead of the monthly F&amp;O expiry in the upcoming week (Tuesday), market volatility is expected to remain high, according to Nilesh.

Weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is likely to trade within a broad range of 24,500–25,500, with immediate resistance at 25,200–25,300 and support at 25,000–24,900.

Bank Nifty

The banking index witnessed heavier selling pressure than the benchmark Nifty 50, declining 727 points (1.23 percent) to 58,473 and forming a long bearish candle on both daily and weekly charts. The index fell 2.7 percent for the week, marking its biggest weekly correction since August 2025.

Momentum indicators were weak on both daily and weekly scales, with the daily RSI falling to 38.98. The MACD slipped below the zero line with further weakness in the histogram, highlighting a sustained bearish bias.

The Bank Nifty decisively slipped below the 50-day EMA as well as its trendline support at 58,800 in a single session, reflecting strong selling pressure.

“The overall structure suggests that the index has clearly entered a ‘sell on rise’ phase. On the downside, the index may test its 100-day moving average, which also acts as a positional support near 57,700. Immediate support is placed at 58,000, while resistance is seen in the 58,800–58,900 zone,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Technical View: Bears to tighten grip if Nifty 50 breaks 24,900 next week; Bank Nifty slips decisively below 58,800 as VIX at fresh 7-month closing high

Technical View: Bears to tighten grip if Nifty 50 breaks 24,900, next week; Bank Nifty slips decisively below 58,800 as VIX at fresh 7-month closing high

The Nifty 50 failed to add further gains over the previous session, plunging nearly 1 percent as bears tightened their grip on the market on January 23. The index shed 2.51 percent (646 points) for the week, marking the biggest weekly decline since September 2025. Considering the sell signals in momentum indicators and the rise in VIX to a fresh seven-month closing high, bearish sentiment may prevail during the budget week.

The benchmark index decisively closed below the 200-day EMA. As a result, it is now trading below all key moving averages, with the 10-, 20-, and 50-day EMAs trending downward. The 100-day EMA has also moderately turned down, while the 200-day DEMA remains flat.

If the index sustains below the 200-day DEMA (25,163), a break below 24,900 (the week’s low) cannot be ruled out next week, followed by 24,600, which is a crucial support zone. However, in the case of a bounce back amid likely consolidation, the 200-day DEMA is expected to act as an immediate hurdle, followed by 25,300–25,350 as a crucial resistance zone, experts said.

The Nifty 50 opened higher above 25,300 but could not sustain those levels for long and lost all gains within the first hour itself. The index extended its fall as the day progressed and hit an intraday low of 25,025 before closing 241 points (0.95 percent) lower at 25,049.

The index also violated its rising trendline support and formed a long bearish candle on both daily and weekly charts, signalling weakness. Momentum indicators also flashed sell signals on the daily and weekly timeframes. The daily RSI stood at 29.12, while the MACD maintained bearish crossovers with weakness in the histogram. However, the Stochastic RSI remained positive in the oversold zone.

“While a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out, the Nifty would need to decisively reclaim the 25,300 level to trigger any meaningful short-covering rally towards the 25,600 zone. On the downside, a breach below 25,000 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 24,800 levels,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking.

Further adding to the cautious undertone, India VIX surged 6.3 percent to close at 14.19, signalling elevated market uncertainty. The VIX rallied 24.8 percent for the week, extending its uptrend for the fourth consecutive week and indicating greater caution for bulls.

Ahead of the monthly F&amp;amp;O expiry in the upcoming week (Tuesday), market volatility is expected to remain high, according to Nilesh.

Weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is likely to trade within a broad range of 24,500–25,500, with immediate resistance at 25,200–25,300 and support at 25,000–24,900.

Bank Nifty

The banking index witnessed heavier selling pressure than the benchmark Nifty 50, declining 727 points (1.23 percent) to 58,473 and forming a long bearish candle on both daily and weekly charts. The index fell 2.7 percent for the week, marking its biggest weekly correction since August 2025.

Momentum indicators were weak on both daily and weekly scales, with the daily RSI falling to 38.98. The MACD slipped below the zero line with further weakness in the histogram, highlighting a sustained bearish bias.

The Bank Nifty decisively slipped below the 50-day EMA as well as its trendline support at 58,800 in a single session, reflecting strong selling pressure.

“The overall structure suggests that the index has clearly entered a ‘sell on rise’ phase. On the downside, the index may test its 100-day moving average, which also acts as a positional support near 57,700. Immediate support is placed at 58,000, while resistance is seen in the 58,800–58,900 zone,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The domestic stock markets will remain closed on Monday, January 26, on account of Republic Day, according to the official holiday calendar issued by the exchanges.

Trading in equities, equity derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives and interest rate derivatives will remain shut for the day on both the BSE and the NSE.
<h3>MCX Stock Market Holiday on Republic Day</h3>
The commodities market will also remain shut for both the morning and evening sessions, as per the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Earlier this month, markets were closed on January 15 after the Maharashtra government declared a public holiday under the Negotiable Instruments Act to facilitate local body elections across 29 municipal corporations, including Mumbai City and Mumbai Suburban districts under the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).
<h3>Stock Market on Budget Day</h3>
The stock markets will remain open for trading on February 1 for the presentation of the Union Budget 2026, even though the day falls on a Sunday.

The exchanges said trading on that day will follow normal market timings.

"On account of the presentation of the Union Budget, members are requested to note that the Exchange shall be conducting a live trading session on February 1, 2026, as per the standard market timings (9:15 am to 3:30 pm)," the NSE said in a circular.

The Union Budget for 2026 will be presented at 11 am on February 1, a Sunday, as confirmed by the Lok Sabha Speaker on January 12.
<h3>Stock Market Holidays 2026 </h3>
The stock markets will observe a total of 15 holidays in 2026. Of these, four fall on Saturdays or Sundays, when markets are otherwise closed.

March will see the highest number of trading holidays, with markets remaining shut for three days on account of Holi (March 3), Shri Ram Navami (March 26) and Shri Mahavir Jayanti (March 31). February, July and August will not have any effective market holidays as national holidays during these months fall on weekends.

A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

NSE, BSE to remain shut on Monday for Republic Day, open Sunday for Budget next week

The domestic stock markets will remain closed on Monday, January 26, on account of Republic Day, according to the official holiday calendar issued by the exchanges.

Trading in equities, equity derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives and interest rate derivatives will remain shut for the day on both the BSE and the NSE.
MCX Stock Market Holiday on Republic Day
The commodities market will also remain shut for both the morning and evening sessions, as per the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Earlier this month, markets were closed on January 15 after the Maharashtra government declared a public holiday under the Negotiable Instruments Act to facilitate local body elections across 29 municipal corporations, including Mumbai City and Mumbai Suburban districts under the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC).
Stock Market on Budget Day
The stock markets will remain open for trading on February 1 for the presentation of the Union Budget 2026, even though the day falls on a Sunday.

The exchanges said trading on that day will follow normal market timings.

&quot;On account of the presentation of the Union Budget, members are requested to note that the Exchange shall be conducting a live trading session on February 1, 2026, as per the standard market timings (9:15 am to 3:30 pm),&quot; the NSE said in a circular.

The Union Budget for 2026 will be presented at 11 am on February 1, a Sunday, as confirmed by the Lok Sabha Speaker on January 12.
Stock Market Holidays 2026 
The stock markets will observe a total of 15 holidays in 2026. Of these, four fall on Saturdays or Sundays, when markets are otherwise closed.

March will see the highest number of trading holidays, with markets remaining shut for three days on account of Holi (March 3), Shri Ram Navami (March 26) and Shri Mahavir Jayanti (March 31). February, July and August will not have any effective market holidays as national holidays during these months fall on weekends.

Sensex fell 769 points, Nifty dropped 241 points in a volatile session on Jan 23, All sector indices fell; midcap and smallcap dropped over 1.5%., Indian rupee hit a record low at 91.97 per dollar during intraday trading

* Sensex fell 769 points, Nifty dropped 241 points in a volatile session on Jan 23
* All sector indices fell; midcap and smallcap dropped over 1.5%.
* Indian rupee hit a record low at 91.97 per dollar during intraday trading

Indian markets ended lower on January 23 amid broad sectoral declines and profit booking. Sensex fell 769 points, Nifty dropped 241 points, and midcap/smallcap indices underperformed. Over 400 stocks hit 52-week lows. The rupee touched a record low at 91.97.

shorts/business/taking-stock-bears-regain-control-sensex-sinks-770-pts-nifty-struggles-near-25-000

* Sensex fell 769 points, Nifty dropped 241 points in a volatile session on Jan 23
* All sector indices fell; midcap and smallcap dropped over 1.5%.
* Indian rupee hit a record low at 91.97 per dollar during intraday trading

The market failed to build on the previous session’s strong rebound and ended lower in a volatile session on January 23, as selling pressure was seen across sectors.

After a muted start, the market traded rangebound in the first half; however, mid-session profit booking dragged the Nifty to the day’s low of 25,025.30, before it closed near that level.

At close, the Sensex was down 769.67 points or 0.94 percent at 81,537.70, and the Nifty was down 241.25 points or 0.95 percent at 25,048.65.

The broader underperformed the benchmarks, with BSE midcap index falling 1.5 percent and smallcap index down over 2 percent.

For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty fell 2.5 percent each.

The market will remain shut on Monday, January 26 on account of Republic Day.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/90-of-small-cap-funds-beat-the-index-but-none-made-money-13787942.html">90% of small-cap funds beat the index — but none made money</a>

Biggest Nifty losers were Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Eternal, Interglobe Aviation, Cipla, while gainers included Dr Reddy's Labs, Tech Mahindra, ONGC, Hindalco, HUL.

All the sectoral indices ended in the red with capital goods, power, realty, PSU Bank, media down 2-3%.

Indian rupee remained under pressure today as it touched fresh record low at 91.97 per dollar intraday. The INR ended at 91.96 versus Thursday's close of 91.62.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/ipo/market-correction-puts-ipo-rush-on-hold-2026-sees-only-3-issues-so-far-13787056.html">Market correction puts IPO rush on hold; 2026 sees only 3 issues so far</a>

In stock specifics, PG Electroplast shares shed 4% on MoU with the Government of Maharashtra, Bandhan Bank shares rose 4% despite profit fell 51%, Tanla Platforms share price surged 7% after profit jumps 10%, Suryoday Small Finance Bank share price slipped 5% despite better Q3 earnings, Home First Finance Company India shares added 6% as Q3 profit jumps 44%, Hindustan Zinc shares rise 5% to hit fresh 52-week high as silver extends record rally.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/smallcaps-crack-deeper-as-correction-widens-valuation-froth-comes-back-into-focus-for-2026-13786817.html">Smallcaps crack deeper as correction widens; valuation froth comes back into focus for 2026</a>

More than 400 stocks touched their 52-week lows, including Adani Enterprises, Adani Total Gas, Syngene International, Reliance Power, Lodha Developers, Tejas Networks, Premier Energies, Network 18, Godrej Properties, Just Dial, Piramal Pharma, Devyani International, Sapphire Foods, Blue Jet, HFCL, Afcons Infra, Brigade Enterprises, Honeywell Automation, DLF, Sterling Wilson, among others. <a href="http://moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%2520500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

Outlook for January 27

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The index remained weak throughout the session as it stayed below the 20 EMA on the hourly chart. In addition, the index has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500. On the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets remained volatile and declined nearly one percent, resuming the prevailing corrective trend. The Nifty index opened in positive territory on easing geopolitical tensions but soon gave up its gains and drifted lower amid persistent selling pressure, eventually settling near the day’s low at 25,048.65. Selling was broad-based, with realty, energy and banking stocks among the key laggards, while only a few defensive and select cyclical names provided limited support. Broader market indices also mirrored the weakness, with midcap and smallcap indices falling close to two percent each, highlighting widespread risk-off positioning and cautious participation.

Market sentiment was weighed down by renewed concerns over global trade and geopolitical developments, along with continued foreign institutional selling. Currency weakness further added to the negative bias, as the Indian rupee slipped to fresh lows against the US dollar during the session. In the absence of strong domestic triggers, trading remained largely stock-specific, marked by selective buying and pronounced selling across the broader market.

Technically, the Nifty has slipped below its long-term moving average, the 200 DEMA, which signals the possibility of further downside. The 24,750–24,900 zone now emerges as the next key support area, while the 25,300–25,400 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle in case of any rebound. That said, select pockets continue to show resilience and are offering buying opportunities. In this environment, participants are advised to maintain a selective and balanced approach, take positions on both sides based on sectoral strength and weakness, and keep a strict check on position sizing.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness since early part of the session. The weakness got intensified in the mid to later part and Nifty finally closed at the lows.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates a formation of lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative and one may expect Nifty sliding below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched around 24600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Taking Stock: Bears regain control; Sensex sinks 770 pts, Nifty struggles near 25,050

The market failed to build on the previous session’s strong rebound and ended lower in a volatile session on January 23, as selling pressure was seen across sectors.

After a muted start, the market traded rangebound in the first half; however, mid-session profit booking dragged the Nifty to the day’s low of 25,025.30, before it closed near that level.

At close, the Sensex was down 769.67 points or 0.94 percent at 81,537.70, and the Nifty was down 241.25 points or 0.95 percent at 25,048.65.

The broader underperformed the benchmarks, with BSE midcap index falling 1.5 percent and smallcap index down over 2 percent.

For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty fell 2.5 percent each.

The market will remain shut on Monday, January 26 on account of Republic Day.

Also Read: 90% of small-cap funds beat the index — but none made money

Biggest Nifty losers were Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Eternal, Interglobe Aviation, Cipla, while gainers included Dr Reddy's Labs, Tech Mahindra, ONGC, Hindalco, HUL.

All the sectoral indices ended in the red with capital goods, power, realty, PSU Bank, media down 2-3%.

Indian rupee remained under pressure today as it touched fresh record low at 91.97 per dollar intraday. The INR ended at 91.96 versus Thursday's close of 91.62.

Also Read - Market correction puts IPO rush on hold; 2026 sees only 3 issues so far

In stock specifics, PG Electroplast shares shed 4% on MoU with the Government of Maharashtra, Bandhan Bank shares rose 4% despite profit fell 51%, Tanla Platforms share price surged 7% after profit jumps 10%, Suryoday Small Finance Bank share price slipped 5% despite better Q3 earnings, Home First Finance Company India shares added 6% as Q3 profit jumps 44%, Hindustan Zinc shares rise 5% to hit fresh 52-week high as silver extends record rally.

Also Read - Smallcaps crack deeper as correction widens; valuation froth comes back into focus for 2026

More than 400 stocks touched their 52-week lows, including Adani Enterprises, Adani Total Gas, Syngene International, Reliance Power, Lodha Developers, Tejas Networks, Premier Energies, Network 18, Godrej Properties, Just Dial, Piramal Pharma, Devyani International, Sapphire Foods, Blue Jet, HFCL, Afcons Infra, Brigade Enterprises, Honeywell Automation, DLF, Sterling Wilson, among others. Click to View More

Outlook for January 27

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The index remained weak throughout the session as it stayed below the 20 EMA on the hourly chart. In addition, the index has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500. On the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets remained volatile and declined nearly one percent, resuming the prevailing corrective trend. The Nifty index opened in positive territory on easing geopolitical tensions but soon gave up its gains and drifted lower amid persistent selling pressure, eventually settling near the day’s low at 25,048.65. Selling was broad-based, with realty, energy and banking stocks among the key laggards, while only a few defensive and select cyclical names provided limited support. Broader market indices also mirrored the weakness, with midcap and smallcap indices falling close to two percent each, highlighting widespread risk-off positioning and cautious participation.

Market sentiment was weighed down by renewed concerns over global trade and geopolitical developments, along with continued foreign institutional selling. Currency weakness further added to the negative bias, as the Indian rupee slipped to fresh lows against the US dollar during the session. In the absence of strong domestic triggers, trading remained largely stock-specific, marked by selective buying and pronounced selling across the broader market.

Technically, the Nifty has slipped below its long-term moving average, the 200 DEMA, which signals the possibility of further downside. The 24,750–24,900 zone now emerges as the next key support area, while the 25,300–25,400 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle in case of any rebound. That said, select pockets continue to show resilience and are offering buying opportunities. In this environment, participants are advised to maintain a selective and balanced approach, take positions on both sides based on sectoral strength and weakness, and keep a strict check on position sizing.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness since early part of the session. The weakness got intensified in the mid to later part and Nifty finally closed at the lows.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates a formation of lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative and one may expect Nifty sliding below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched around 24600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

11 out of 18 years NIFTY IT has given positive returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	38,493.67	38,748.83	38,921.02	38,321.48	38,066.32	37,894.13	37,638.97
Fibonacci	38,484.73	38,585.59	38,748.83	38,321.48	38,158.24	38,057.38	37,894.13
Camarilla	38,277.67	38,316.85	38,356.02	38,321.48	38,199.33	38,160.15	38,120.98

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY IT

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