NIFTY 750 TOTAL MKT

The Nifty MidCap 100 index is showing a classic inverted head and shoulders pattern. The upside target, projected from the head to the neckline, comes to nearly 72,000, suggesting the potential for a significant upside run in the index, Ashish Kyal, the CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He advised using any dips as buying opportunities in line with this positive momentum.

In case of Nifty 50, he believes the index is on the verge of a breakout, suggesting strong upward momentum in the near term. "The index could reach levels around 26,400 in the second half of the current month. Also, this can be 3rd wave on upside as per Elliott wave," he said.

Do you see an inverted head-and-shoulders breakout forming in the Nifty Midcap 100 index on the weekly charts? If so, does it indicate the potential for a stellar rally despite intermittent consolidation?

The Nifty MidCap 100 Index is showing a classic inverted head and shoulders pattern, with a breakout above the neckline at approximately 60,250. Currently, the index has recorded its highest weekly close at 60,739.

The upside target, projected from the head to the neckline, comes to nearly 72,000, suggesting the potential for a significant upside run in the MidCap index. This strong performance is notable, especially considering India is still standing at a 50% tariff, highlighting the robust relative outperformance of Indian equities.

Additionally, Bank Nifty has already reached lifetime highs, and the Nifty is close to moving there. The MidCap index is also on the verge of a breakout. These indicators point to very strong bullish signals from a technical perspective.

It is advisable to use any dips as buying opportunities in line with this positive momentum.

Do you expect the uptrend to continue in Star Health after its consolidation breakout and 7 percent rally last week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/diversified/starhealthalliedinsurancecompany/SHA">Star Health and Allied Insurance</a> demonstrated a strong breakout last week. The stock has formed a clear inverted head and shoulders pattern, signalling an upside target around Rs 580.

Given the short-term overbought RSI, a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable rather than chasing the stock at current levels. Support on the downside is around Rs 500, which also aligns with the neckline of the pattern. As long as this level holds, the overall trend remains positive, supporting the target of Rs 580.

Are you bullish on <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/cityunionbank/CUB">City Union Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/canarabank/CB06">Canara Bank</a>?

City Union Bank has formed a rounding bottom pattern and delivered a strong breakout, with the weekly close sharply higher. The overall trend for the stock is positive, with an upside target around Rs 320 or higher. On the downside, support lies near the prior swing level of Rs 240, which should hold to maintain the bullish outlook.

Canara Bank has been a strong outperformer within the PSU banking sector, showing significant relative strength compared to Bank Nifty. The overall trend remains upside-biased, with targets near Rs 170, provided the support at Rs 130 remains intact.

Do you see the possibility of the Nifty 50 moving beyond 26,277 (its record high) in the second half of the current month?

The Nifty 50 weekly candle managed to close above the prior week’s high after three consecutive weeks of decline, indicating a potential shift in momentum. Prices are on the verge of a breakout, suggesting strong upward momentum in the near term. The index could reach levels around 26,400 in the second half of the current month. Also, this can be 3rd wave on upside as per Elliott wave.

On the downside, support lies near 25,740, the low recorded on the Bihar election result day. A breach below this level may lead to a few days of consolidation before another breakout occurs.

Do you believe <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/personal-care/marico/M13">Marico</a> may break out on the higher side, given the consolidation seen since the second half of April?

Marico has been consolidating within a range since May 2025, with resistance around Rs 750 and strong support near Rs 690. While a breakout has not yet occurred, the overall undertone appears positive.

Trader can use dips to buy around Rs 730, aiming for a move back toward Rs 750 or possibly higher. On the downside, the key support level is around Rs 715.

Do you expect the Bank Nifty to reach 60,000 before the end of this calendar year?

Bank Nifty has been a market leader over the past several months, being the first index to reach lifetime highs. Currently, prices are near the prior swing high and poised for an upside breakout. The index could reach 60,000 in the near term, provided the support at 57,800 holds.

From a weekly perspective, the public sector banking space (PSU banks) has been outperforming, and private sector banks are expected to catch up, further supporting the upside rally. Overall, technical patterns suggest Bank Nifty is potentially entering the 3rd wave higher.

What are your top two bets for next week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/defence/parasdefencespacetechnologies/PDS01">Paras Defence and Space Technologies</a>

Defense companies continued their upward movement, outperforming the market, with the Nifty India Defense Index surging 4% in the past one week. In which, Paras surged by more than 6% post company reported strong quarterly earnings. On the daily chart, stock is trading in a rectangular range of Rs 609 to Rs 773 levels since July 2025 which indicates accumulation.

If prices manage to give a close above Rs 773 levels, then it can result into a bullish breakout of the said pattern which can push prices towards Rs 850 levels or higher. On the downside Rs 725 is the crucial support.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/pharmaceuticals/lupin/L">Lupin</a>

Pharma sector is on the verge to give breakout. In which, Lupin is trading at important resistance of Rs 2,070 levels which also happens to be near a neckline of the rounding bottom pattern and any breakout of it can trigger fresh course of rally towards Rs 2,200-2,240 levels or higher. Prices are also protecting prior day's low since past three sessions which is a positive sign. On the downside, Rs 1,985 level should remain protected.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Chartist Talk: Ashish Kyal flags Nifty’s third wave, targets 26,400 by Nov-end; Midcap seen at 72,000

The Nifty MidCap 100 index is showing a classic inverted head and shoulders pattern. The upside target, projected from the head to the neckline, comes to nearly 72,000, suggesting the potential for a significant upside run in the index, Ashish Kyal, the CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He advised using any dips as buying opportunities in line with this positive momentum.

In case of Nifty 50, he believes the index is on the verge of a breakout, suggesting strong upward momentum in the near term. &quot;The index could reach levels around 26,400 in the second half of the current month. Also, this can be 3rd wave on upside as per Elliott wave,&quot; he said.

Do you see an inverted head-and-shoulders breakout forming in the Nifty Midcap 100 index on the weekly charts? If so, does it indicate the potential for a stellar rally despite intermittent consolidation?

The Nifty MidCap 100 Index is showing a classic inverted head and shoulders pattern, with a breakout above the neckline at approximately 60,250. Currently, the index has recorded its highest weekly close at 60,739.

The upside target, projected from the head to the neckline, comes to nearly 72,000, suggesting the potential for a significant upside run in the MidCap index. This strong performance is notable, especially considering India is still standing at a 50% tariff, highlighting the robust relative outperformance of Indian equities.

Additionally, Bank Nifty has already reached lifetime highs, and the Nifty is close to moving there. The MidCap index is also on the verge of a breakout. These indicators point to very strong bullish signals from a technical perspective.

It is advisable to use any dips as buying opportunities in line with this positive momentum.

Do you expect the uptrend to continue in Star Health after its consolidation breakout and 7 percent rally last week?

Star Health and Allied Insurance demonstrated a strong breakout last week. The stock has formed a clear inverted head and shoulders pattern, signalling an upside target around Rs 580.

Given the short-term overbought RSI, a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable rather than chasing the stock at current levels. Support on the downside is around Rs 500, which also aligns with the neckline of the pattern. As long as this level holds, the overall trend remains positive, supporting the target of Rs 580.

Are you bullish on City Union Bank and Canara Bank?

City Union Bank has formed a rounding bottom pattern and delivered a strong breakout, with the weekly close sharply higher. The overall trend for the stock is positive, with an upside target around Rs 320 or higher. On the downside, support lies near the prior swing level of Rs 240, which should hold to maintain the bullish outlook.

Canara Bank has been a strong outperformer within the PSU banking sector, showing significant relative strength compared to Bank Nifty. The overall trend remains upside-biased, with targets near Rs 170, provided the support at Rs 130 remains intact.

Do you see the possibility of the Nifty 50 moving beyond 26,277 (its record high) in the second half of the current month?

The Nifty 50 weekly candle managed to close above the prior week’s high after three consecutive weeks of decline, indicating a potential shift in momentum. Prices are on the verge of a breakout, suggesting strong upward momentum in the near term. The index could reach levels around 26,400 in the second half of the current month. Also, this can be 3rd wave on upside as per Elliott wave.

On the downside, support lies near 25,740, the low recorded on the Bihar election result day. A breach below this level may lead to a few days of consolidation before another breakout occurs.

Do you believe Marico may break out on the higher side, given the consolidation seen since the second half of April?

Marico has been consolidating within a range since May 2025, with resistance around Rs 750 and strong support near Rs 690. While a breakout has not yet occurred, the overall undertone appears positive.

Trader can use dips to buy around Rs 730, aiming for a move back toward Rs 750 or possibly higher. On the downside, the key support level is around Rs 715.

Do you expect the Bank Nifty to reach 60,000 before the end of this calendar year?

Bank Nifty has been a market leader over the past several months, being the first index to reach lifetime highs. Currently, prices are near the prior swing high and poised for an upside breakout. The index could reach 60,000 in the near term, provided the support at 57,800 holds.

From a weekly perspective, the public sector banking space (PSU banks) has been outperforming, and private sector banks are expected to catch up, further supporting the upside rally. Overall, technical patterns suggest Bank Nifty is potentially entering the 3rd wave higher.

What are your top two bets for next week?

Paras Defence and Space Technologies

Defense companies continued their upward movement, outperforming the market, with the Nifty India Defense Index surging 4% in the past one week. In which, Paras surged by more than 6% post company reported strong quarterly earnings. On the daily chart, stock is trading in a rectangular range of Rs 609 to Rs 773 levels since July 2025 which indicates accumulation.

If prices manage to give a close above Rs 773 levels, then it can result into a bullish breakout of the said pattern which can push prices towards Rs 850 levels or higher. On the downside Rs 725 is the crucial support.

Lupin

Pharma sector is on the verge to give breakout. In which, Lupin is trading at important resistance of Rs 2,070 levels which also happens to be near a neckline of the rounding bottom pattern and any breakout of it can trigger fresh course of rally towards Rs 2,200-2,240 levels or higher. Prices are also protecting prior day's low since past three sessions which is a positive sign. On the downside, Rs 1,985 level should remain protected.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

After reading Q2 earnings and management commentaries, Kush Gupta, Director at SKG Investment &amp; Advisory told Moneycontrol that his outlook for Q3FY26 earnings remains optimistic.

"Earnings momentum is steady, management commentaries indicate firm demand and acceleration towards going into FY27," he said, adding while IT sector is doing poorly, financials, agriculture and consumption are expected to shine.

He is bullish on domestic consumption on all fronts. One space in AI that does interest him is the growth of digital infrastructure companies that are providing the hardware, storage facilities, data centres etc to enable its growth.

What is your take on the auto earnings? Do you think the real test for two-wheeler and four-wheeler makers will begin in December–January, depending on whether growth sustains, given that companies have indicated some softness in demand?

India’s auto sector enters H2 FY26 on a strong footing, supported by robust Q2 performance and an early festive push. September 2025 delivered record sales across passenger vehicles (PV), two wheelers and three wheelers, even though GST 2.0 benefits were available for only nine days. Strong exports, firm rural mobility demand and steady consumer sentiment boosted by GST cuts, earlier RBI rate relief and income tax benefits underpinned the sector’s momentum.

But going forward the OEMs remain cautious, despite the festive surge, PV sales in Q2 fell –1.5 percent and UVs (utility vehicles) dipped 2.1 percent as compared to Q2 the previous year, indicating underlying softness. December- January period could be critical in keeping the momentum.

With some automakers flagging early signs of retail fatigue, the key test will come in Q4 results, once the extended festive and wedding season ends. Sustained demand will depend on inventory normalization, liquidity and how effectively GST 2.0 supports affordability beyond the festival period.

How would you summarise the September quarter earnings season that concluded on November 14?

India’s corporate earnings for Q2FY26 are shaping up stronger than anticipated, with early results indicating a broad but sector skewed recovery led by commodities, capital goods and technology. Oil profits surged nearly nine-fold, alongside solid gains in technology, cement and metals. Strong performances in cement, IT, PSU banks, real estate and metals.

The key monitorable remains the sustainability of this momentum amid normalising input costs and demand after the festive boost. Nifty 500 companies have reported a 9 percent YoY growth in sales and profits, we are expecting the growth to continue through H1 of 2026.

Capex heavy industries have also shown strong results with the likes of CG Power and Hitachi Energy leading the way. Order inflows have shown heavy momentum here. The overall outlook is cautiously improving; however, it depends heavily on the durability of the recovery and margin expansion, with the global economic environment likely to play a major role over the next 3–4 quarters.

After reviewing the earnings data and management commentaries, are you optimistic about Q3 results?

Yes, the outlook for Q3 remains optimistic. Earnings momentum is steady, management commentaries indicate firm demand and acceleration towards going into FY27. While IT sector is doing poorly, financials, agriculture and consumption are expected to shine. Rural demand is rising and outpacing urban areas in sectors like FMCG with a 7.7 percent YoY growth.

I am bullish on domestic consumption on all fronts, disposable income is increasing, we are seeing low interest rates and easing inflation. This is an ideal scenario for a boost in consumer behaviour across auto, travel, hospitality and discretionary spending.

On the agriculture front, GST cuts, good monsoon season and government subsidies will continue to fuel better earnings. Aided with stable MSPs and lower input costs, agriculture income has also shown improvement.

With robust manufacturing data and stable macros, Q3 is likely to be a healthy quarter, though stock specific divergence may persist due to valuations.

With inflation continuing to trend lower, do you think there is scope for the RBI to cut rates in its December and February policy meetings?

With inflation steadily trending lower and core inflation remaining contained, the macro backdrop does create theoretical room for the RBI to consider rate cuts in the December or February meetings. India’s consumer inflation came to 0.25 percent In October, which was more than expected, strengthening the case further.

However, the governor Mr. Sanjay Malhotra said that the effects of the 50-basis point rate cut in June have yet to filter through the economy. Given that, the central bank is likely to remain cautious and not show any hurry to cut rates. Global uncertainties, commodity price risks and the need to see more sustained evidence of disinflation will be key factors before pivoting.

As a result, while February has a higher probability than December, any policy easing will still be data dependent, calibrated and aimed at ensuring inflation remains firmly aligned with the 4 percent target.

Are you turning increasingly bullish on the financial services segment?

Yes, I have been bullish on the financial services segment for some time now and I think there is optimism in the near future. The past 10 years we have been very exciting in this segment. What used to be a banking, insurance and lending driven sector has now branched out to wealth management, digital payments, asset management, merchant banking, investment banking, SME, IPO and much more. This has altered the very DNA and made the financial sector a sum total of smaller mini-sectors that are all feeding each other and growth together.

Today the BFSI sector accounts for 27 percent of the total GDP, this was only 6 percent in 2005. There has been massive penetration and financial inclusion and inspite of that we only have 130 million unique demat accounts, that is less than 10 percent of the total population. In US the retail participation is as high as 60 percent.

With digitisation of payments, e-commerce and ease of investing, there has been a change in culture in how we utilise the financial infrastructure in this country. And cultural changes are difficult to reverse and almost impossible to ignore. In a country of 1.4 billion people, almost 50 percent are using financial infrastructure largely thanks to UPI. I think this massive change is here to stay and as we get more dependent on this unique mix of finance &amp; technology, we will see the financial services segment grow further.

Have you started focusing on the AI theme for investments, even though India still lags behind other countries in this space?

We have stayed away from the AI theme as of now. I think AI is changing the world in a way that you only witness once in a generation. Think of the industrial revolution or how social media impacted the way we live now. If at all, I think AI’s effect will only be bigger and more impactful. There is also no doubt that AI will be adopted in our daily lives in the near future.

But from an investment point of view, like you said, India still lags behind and I have yet to come across good companies that are fairly valued. There is also a lot of mis-representation, I come across a lot companies that claim to driven by AI or being in its food chain in some form but when you dig in, a lot of them are not actually creating significant value.

So it’s difficult to say what their future will be, and we don’t want to ride a trend without being certain. One space in AI that does interest me is the growth of digital infrastructure companies that are providing the hardware, storage facilities, data centres etc to enable its growth. I think in future, that is the theme I would like to look into. They will be very critical in this tech revolution and Indian companies can look at this segment to create become an integral part of the value chain.

Which sectors are currently on your radar for investment?

As a long term investor, I think India is at a precipice of a major economic expansion with various sectors contributing their fair share in its growth. Some of the themes that I think will stand out are BFSI, Healthcare, and Infra.

We have seen a Fintech revolution in India with UPI being adopted in most of the country, and it is a large country mind you. We are seeing huge participation from domestic and global investors in our primary markets. Financial penetration is at its all-time high, regulatory support is unwavering and the way economy is intertwined, growth in sectors like consumer goods, health and telecom also ends up supporting the financial sector.

Healthcare, that includes pharma, diagnostics, hospitals etc has being showing good results with most sector dedicated funds giving a return of 22-24 percent in last three years. I think the trend will continue with a big contribution from Tier 2 &amp; tier 3 cities. Expansion of quality hospitals, speciality clinics and diagnostic centres in smaller cities have driven this growth and there is a lot of head room there.

Further, insurance penetration has made it more affordable for low-income households to seek good healthcare, thereby increasing the demand.

Infra is another sector that I follow very closely and I think has given good returns and will continue to shine. This has been largely thanks for Modi government’s push to sponsor large projects such as airports, highways, high-speed rails, freight corridors etc. Infra growth will continue to be a very critical element in the overall growth of other sectors hence I feel that government policies and focus will be continue to be very favourable here. Companies that are engaged in large-infra and ancillary companies that support them are on our radar.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Kush Gupta backs financials, agri and consumption for Q3; sees IT struggling

After reading Q2 earnings and management commentaries, Kush Gupta, Director at SKG Investment &amp;amp; Advisory told Moneycontrol that his outlook for Q3FY26 earnings remains optimistic.

&quot;Earnings momentum is steady, management commentaries indicate firm demand and acceleration towards going into FY27,&quot; he said, adding while IT sector is doing poorly, financials, agriculture and consumption are expected to shine.

He is bullish on domestic consumption on all fronts. One space in AI that does interest him is the growth of digital infrastructure companies that are providing the hardware, storage facilities, data centres etc to enable its growth.

What is your take on the auto earnings? Do you think the real test for two-wheeler and four-wheeler makers will begin in December–January, depending on whether growth sustains, given that companies have indicated some softness in demand?

India’s auto sector enters H2 FY26 on a strong footing, supported by robust Q2 performance and an early festive push. September 2025 delivered record sales across passenger vehicles (PV), two wheelers and three wheelers, even though GST 2.0 benefits were available for only nine days. Strong exports, firm rural mobility demand and steady consumer sentiment boosted by GST cuts, earlier RBI rate relief and income tax benefits underpinned the sector’s momentum.

But going forward the OEMs remain cautious, despite the festive surge, PV sales in Q2 fell –1.5 percent and UVs (utility vehicles) dipped 2.1 percent as compared to Q2 the previous year, indicating underlying softness. December- January period could be critical in keeping the momentum.

With some automakers flagging early signs of retail fatigue, the key test will come in Q4 results, once the extended festive and wedding season ends. Sustained demand will depend on inventory normalization, liquidity and how effectively GST 2.0 supports affordability beyond the festival period.

How would you summarise the September quarter earnings season that concluded on November 14?

India’s corporate earnings for Q2FY26 are shaping up stronger than anticipated, with early results indicating a broad but sector skewed recovery led by commodities, capital goods and technology. Oil profits surged nearly nine-fold, alongside solid gains in technology, cement and metals. Strong performances in cement, IT, PSU banks, real estate and metals.

The key monitorable remains the sustainability of this momentum amid normalising input costs and demand after the festive boost. Nifty 500 companies have reported a 9 percent YoY growth in sales and profits, we are expecting the growth to continue through H1 of 2026.

Capex heavy industries have also shown strong results with the likes of CG Power and Hitachi Energy leading the way. Order inflows have shown heavy momentum here. The overall outlook is cautiously improving; however, it depends heavily on the durability of the recovery and margin expansion, with the global economic environment likely to play a major role over the next 3–4 quarters.

After reviewing the earnings data and management commentaries, are you optimistic about Q3 results?

Yes, the outlook for Q3 remains optimistic. Earnings momentum is steady, management commentaries indicate firm demand and acceleration towards going into FY27. While IT sector is doing poorly, financials, agriculture and consumption are expected to shine. Rural demand is rising and outpacing urban areas in sectors like FMCG with a 7.7 percent YoY growth.

I am bullish on domestic consumption on all fronts, disposable income is increasing, we are seeing low interest rates and easing inflation. This is an ideal scenario for a boost in consumer behaviour across auto, travel, hospitality and discretionary spending.

On the agriculture front, GST cuts, good monsoon season and government subsidies will continue to fuel better earnings. Aided with stable MSPs and lower input costs, agriculture income has also shown improvement.

With robust manufacturing data and stable macros, Q3 is likely to be a healthy quarter, though stock specific divergence may persist due to valuations.

With inflation continuing to trend lower, do you think there is scope for the RBI to cut rates in its December and February policy meetings?

With inflation steadily trending lower and core inflation remaining contained, the macro backdrop does create theoretical room for the RBI to consider rate cuts in the December or February meetings. India’s consumer inflation came to 0.25 percent In October, which was more than expected, strengthening the case further.

However, the governor Mr. Sanjay Malhotra said that the effects of the 50-basis point rate cut in June have yet to filter through the economy. Given that, the central bank is likely to remain cautious and not show any hurry to cut rates. Global uncertainties, commodity price risks and the need to see more sustained evidence of disinflation will be key factors before pivoting.

As a result, while February has a higher probability than December, any policy easing will still be data dependent, calibrated and aimed at ensuring inflation remains firmly aligned with the 4 percent target.

Are you turning increasingly bullish on the financial services segment?

Yes, I have been bullish on the financial services segment for some time now and I think there is optimism in the near future. The past 10 years we have been very exciting in this segment. What used to be a banking, insurance and lending driven sector has now branched out to wealth management, digital payments, asset management, merchant banking, investment banking, SME, IPO and much more. This has altered the very DNA and made the financial sector a sum total of smaller mini-sectors that are all feeding each other and growth together.

Today the BFSI sector accounts for 27 percent of the total GDP, this was only 6 percent in 2005. There has been massive penetration and financial inclusion and inspite of that we only have 130 million unique demat accounts, that is less than 10 percent of the total population. In US the retail participation is as high as 60 percent.

With digitisation of payments, e-commerce and ease of investing, there has been a change in culture in how we utilise the financial infrastructure in this country. And cultural changes are difficult to reverse and almost impossible to ignore. In a country of 1.4 billion people, almost 50 percent are using financial infrastructure largely thanks to UPI. I think this massive change is here to stay and as we get more dependent on this unique mix of finance &amp;amp; technology, we will see the financial services segment grow further.

Have you started focusing on the AI theme for investments, even though India still lags behind other countries in this space?

We have stayed away from the AI theme as of now. I think AI is changing the world in a way that you only witness once in a generation. Think of the industrial revolution or how social media impacted the way we live now. If at all, I think AI’s effect will only be bigger and more impactful. There is also no doubt that AI will be adopted in our daily lives in the near future.

But from an investment point of view, like you said, India still lags behind and I have yet to come across good companies that are fairly valued. There is also a lot of mis-representation, I come across a lot companies that claim to driven by AI or being in its food chain in some form but when you dig in, a lot of them are not actually creating significant value.

So it’s difficult to say what their future will be, and we don’t want to ride a trend without being certain. One space in AI that does interest me is the growth of digital infrastructure companies that are providing the hardware, storage facilities, data centres etc to enable its growth. I think in future, that is the theme I would like to look into. They will be very critical in this tech revolution and Indian companies can look at this segment to create become an integral part of the value chain.

Which sectors are currently on your radar for investment?

As a long term investor, I think India is at a precipice of a major economic expansion with various sectors contributing their fair share in its growth. Some of the themes that I think will stand out are BFSI, Healthcare, and Infra.

We have seen a Fintech revolution in India with UPI being adopted in most of the country, and it is a large country mind you. We are seeing huge participation from domestic and global investors in our primary markets. Financial penetration is at its all-time high, regulatory support is unwavering and the way economy is intertwined, growth in sectors like consumer goods, health and telecom also ends up supporting the financial sector.

Healthcare, that includes pharma, diagnostics, hospitals etc has being showing good results with most sector dedicated funds giving a return of 22-24 percent in last three years. I think the trend will continue with a big contribution from Tier 2 &amp;amp; tier 3 cities. Expansion of quality hospitals, speciality clinics and diagnostic centres in smaller cities have driven this growth and there is a lot of head room there.

Further, insurance penetration has made it more affordable for low-income households to seek good healthcare, thereby increasing the demand.

Infra is another sector that I follow very closely and I think has given good returns and will continue to shine. This has been largely thanks for Modi government’s push to sponsor large projects such as airports, highways, high-speed rails, freight corridors etc. Infra growth will continue to be a very critical element in the overall growth of other sectors hence I feel that government policies and focus will be continue to be very favourable here. Companies that are engaged in large-infra and ancillary companies that support them are on our radar.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Shailendra Kumar, the Chief Investment Officer at Narnolia Financial Services believes the Bank Nifty appears to be launching a new bull phase.

This rally is underpinned by very low valuations, which were at a 10-year low (or more) before the ascent began, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

After Bihar election results, he noted that the overall policy landscape is now stabilized, ensuring greater certainty and continuity in governance moving forward.

Meanwhile, going forward, if valuations turn attractive or earnings upgrades gain meaningful momentum, the market could initiate its next bull phase, he believes.

What is your take on the outcome of the Bihar election results?

The victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar elections effectively removes the remaining political uncertainty that arose after the May 2024 central elections. With the NDA securing successive wins in Haryana, Maharashtra, and now Bihar, the overall policy landscape is now stabilized, ensuring greater certainty and continuity in governance moving forward.

What is your view on the outperformance of the Midcap and Bank Nifty indices compared to the Nifty 50? While Midcap and Bank Nifty have already hit new record highs, the benchmark index is still lagging.

The Nifty Midcap 100 has recently achieved a new high, but its valuation multiple is stretched. This high valuation is expected to limit further upward movement. The midcap index remains vulnerable to a sharp correction if the market enters a weak phase, especially until earnings growth momentum returns to the sector.

In contrast, the Bank Nifty appears to be launching a new bull phase. This rally is underpinned by very low valuations, which were at a 10-year low (or more) before the ascent began. Sector fundamentals are improving, with growth returning to the banking sector. Specifically, during Q2FY26, most banks showed signs of stronger advances growth, and provisions are anticipated to decline from the subsequent quarter.

What are the next potential triggers that could propel the market into uncharted territory?

The Indian market is likely to see a short-term boost from any positive news regarding the tariff issue. However, the sustainability of the rally will be doubtful. The core issue is that the broader market is still trading above its long-term average valuations, and these elevated levels cannot be justified until robust earnings growth materializes.

Given the high overall market valuations, investors should adopt a selective approach and focus only on large-cap stocks that offer attractive valuations.

What is your assessment of the September quarter earnings season, which concluded this week? Have you observed the beginning of more upgrades than downgrades in earnings estimates?

The September quarter earnings season and management commentaries have broadly aligned with expectations. Upgrades have marginally outpaced downgrades; however, these upgrades remain modest, and the gap between the two is insufficient to meaningfully alter market direction.

We have made a minor adjustment to our Nifty FY26 EPS forecast, raising it from Rs 1,096 to Rs 1,101. What stands out clearly is that the downgrade cycle has concluded. Going forward, if valuations turn attractive or upgrades gain meaningful momentum, the market could initiate its next bull phase.

Do you think banking and financials are at the beginning of a new rally, given the likely benefits from favourable credit trends and improving asset quality? Which areas within the sector deserve the highest exposure?

The banking and financial services sector is at an inflection point, poised for a 3-4 year outperformance cycle. This secular trend will create scaling opportunities across banking, insurance, and capital markets for companies with strong execution capabilities.

We forecast that 2-3 Indian banks will achieve top-10 global rankings by market capitalization, while the insurance and capital market segments will also witness the emergence of large players.

Apart from financials, do you believe the power and renewables capex cycle remains the strongest multi-year investment theme?

India's power generation capacity is projected to double by 2031, with renewable energy sources expected to contribute approximately 75 percent of this expansion. This indicates sustained capital expenditure momentum over the coming years, making renewable energy and power transmission attractive sectors for investment consideration.

Some investors believe India is an ‘anti-AI’ trade. What is your view, and how do you interpret this perception?

Global investors have been actively increasing their exposure to Artificial Intelligence by investing in companies in the US, Taiwan, and South Korea, but this capital has largely bypassed India so far.

Indian IT companies, especially the large listed firms, are primarily focused on providing application support and reliable services to major multinational corporations. Historically, these companies have missed the initial wave of innovation in new technologies.

However, their strength lies in adoption: once an innovation stabilizes and is ready for large-scale enterprise implementation, these large Indian IT players are uniquely positioned to step in and benefit significantly.

India does have many innovative players building around AI, but these are mostly unlisted startups.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Bank Nifty entering a fresh bull run; Bihar verdict boosts policy certainty, says Narnolia's Shailendra Kumar

Daily Voice: Bank Nifty entering a fresh bull run; Bihar verdict strengthens policy certainty, says Shailendra Kumar of Narnolia

Shailendra Kumar, the Chief Investment Officer at Narnolia Financial Services believes the Bank Nifty appears to be launching a new bull phase.

This rally is underpinned by very low valuations, which were at a 10-year low (or more) before the ascent began, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

After Bihar election results, he noted that the overall policy landscape is now stabilized, ensuring greater certainty and continuity in governance moving forward.

Meanwhile, going forward, if valuations turn attractive or earnings upgrades gain meaningful momentum, the market could initiate its next bull phase, he believes.

What is your take on the outcome of the Bihar election results?

The victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar elections effectively removes the remaining political uncertainty that arose after the May 2024 central elections. With the NDA securing successive wins in Haryana, Maharashtra, and now Bihar, the overall policy landscape is now stabilized, ensuring greater certainty and continuity in governance moving forward.

What is your view on the outperformance of the Midcap and Bank Nifty indices compared to the Nifty 50? While Midcap and Bank Nifty have already hit new record highs, the benchmark index is still lagging.

The Nifty Midcap 100 has recently achieved a new high, but its valuation multiple is stretched. This high valuation is expected to limit further upward movement. The midcap index remains vulnerable to a sharp correction if the market enters a weak phase, especially until earnings growth momentum returns to the sector.

In contrast, the Bank Nifty appears to be launching a new bull phase. This rally is underpinned by very low valuations, which were at a 10-year low (or more) before the ascent began. Sector fundamentals are improving, with growth returning to the banking sector. Specifically, during Q2FY26, most banks showed signs of stronger advances growth, and provisions are anticipated to decline from the subsequent quarter.

What are the next potential triggers that could propel the market into uncharted territory?

The Indian market is likely to see a short-term boost from any positive news regarding the tariff issue. However, the sustainability of the rally will be doubtful. The core issue is that the broader market is still trading above its long-term average valuations, and these elevated levels cannot be justified until robust earnings growth materializes.

Given the high overall market valuations, investors should adopt a selective approach and focus only on large-cap stocks that offer attractive valuations.

What is your assessment of the September quarter earnings season, which concluded this week? Have you observed the beginning of more upgrades than downgrades in earnings estimates?

The September quarter earnings season and management commentaries have broadly aligned with expectations. Upgrades have marginally outpaced downgrades; however, these upgrades remain modest, and the gap between the two is insufficient to meaningfully alter market direction.

We have made a minor adjustment to our Nifty FY26 EPS forecast, raising it from Rs 1,096 to Rs 1,101. What stands out clearly is that the downgrade cycle has concluded. Going forward, if valuations turn attractive or upgrades gain meaningful momentum, the market could initiate its next bull phase.

Do you think banking and financials are at the beginning of a new rally, given the likely benefits from favourable credit trends and improving asset quality? Which areas within the sector deserve the highest exposure?

The banking and financial services sector is at an inflection point, poised for a 3-4 year outperformance cycle. This secular trend will create scaling opportunities across banking, insurance, and capital markets for companies with strong execution capabilities.

We forecast that 2-3 Indian banks will achieve top-10 global rankings by market capitalization, while the insurance and capital market segments will also witness the emergence of large players.

Apart from financials, do you believe the power and renewables capex cycle remains the strongest multi-year investment theme?

India's power generation capacity is projected to double by 2031, with renewable energy sources expected to contribute approximately 75 percent of this expansion. This indicates sustained capital expenditure momentum over the coming years, making renewable energy and power transmission attractive sectors for investment consideration.

Some investors believe India is an ‘anti-AI’ trade. What is your view, and how do you interpret this perception?

Global investors have been actively increasing their exposure to Artificial Intelligence by investing in companies in the US, Taiwan, and South Korea, but this capital has largely bypassed India so far.

Indian IT companies, especially the large listed firms, are primarily focused on providing application support and reliable services to major multinational corporations. Historically, these companies have missed the initial wave of innovation in new technologies.

However, their strength lies in adoption: once an innovation stabilizes and is ready for large-scale enterprise implementation, these large Indian IT players are uniquely positioned to step in and benefit significantly.

India does have many innovative players building around AI, but these are mostly unlisted startups.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The Nifty 50 not only defended the 25,700 support but also climbed above 25,900 on a closing basis, with moderate gains amid volatility on November 14, following a sweeping win for the NDA in the Bihar election results. The recovery in later trade helped the index close above 25,900.

If the index sustains above this level in the upcoming sessions, the psychological 26,000 is the immediate level to watch, followed by 26,100 (the October high), which is a crucial hurdle zone. However, the 25,750-25,700 range is expected to act as support, according to experts.

Overall, the trend remains in favour of the bulls, with the index trading well above all key moving averages, and the short-term moving averages (10 and 20-day EMAs) trending upward. The RSI, rising to 62.24, and the Stochastic RSI maintained a bullish crossover, while the histogram weakness faded further, with the MACD moving upward toward the reference line.

The Nifty 50 opened lower at 25,768 and turned volatile before gaining strength in the last hour of trade. The index finished at 25,910, up 31 points, and formed a long bullish candle on the daily charts with above-average volumes, indicating a strong comeback of bulls from near the support, though it negated the higher high formation of the previous four straight sessions.

On the weekly chart, the index formed a long bullish candle after three weeks of volatility, rising 1.64 percent. The weekly pattern signals the formation of a 'rising three method' type of formation, which is an uptrend continuation pattern.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the market action indicates the formation of a higher bottom at the 25,740 level, and the underlying trend of the Nifty continues to be positive.

"The overall positive chart pattern signals more upside for the market ahead after a recent downward correction. The next upside to be watched is around the 26,200-26,300 levels. Immediate support is placed at 25,750," he said.

The weekly options data also indicated 26,000 as the immediate hurdle for the Nifty 50, with the 25,800-25,700 range as support.

The 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 26,500 and 26,100 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 26,000, 25,800, and 26,100 strikes. Meanwhile, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,500 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 25,700 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,700, 25,750, and 25,600 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty continued to trade higher for the sixth consecutive session, rising 136 points to end at new closing high of 58,518 and forming a long bullish candle on the daily timeframe.

The banking index traded well above all key moving averages, while the RSI at 67.08 entered the bullish zone and the Stochastic RSI sustained a positive crossover. The weakness in the MACD histogram continued to fade. All of this indicated healthy momentum in the index.

For the week, the index rallied 1.11 percent after flat trades in the previous three weeks, forming a long bullish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe, signaling a positive mood.

Looking at key levels, "the 58,700–58,800 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance. A sustained move above 58,800 could drive the index toward 59,500," said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

On the downside, the 57,800-57,700 zone is expected to act as a strong support, which also coincides with the 20-day EMA for the index, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear gauge, dropped below the 12 zone to 11.94, down 1.85 percent, providing comfort for the bulls.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Technical View: Strong comeback of bulls from support, Nifty eyes October high; Bank Nifty at new closing high

The Nifty 50 not only defended the 25,700 support but also climbed above 25,900 on a closing basis, with moderate gains amid volatility on November 14, following a sweeping win for the NDA in the Bihar election results. The recovery in later trade helped the index close above 25,900.

If the index sustains above this level in the upcoming sessions, the psychological 26,000 is the immediate level to watch, followed by 26,100 (the October high), which is a crucial hurdle zone. However, the 25,750-25,700 range is expected to act as support, according to experts.

Overall, the trend remains in favour of the bulls, with the index trading well above all key moving averages, and the short-term moving averages (10 and 20-day EMAs) trending upward. The RSI, rising to 62.24, and the Stochastic RSI maintained a bullish crossover, while the histogram weakness faded further, with the MACD moving upward toward the reference line.

The Nifty 50 opened lower at 25,768 and turned volatile before gaining strength in the last hour of trade. The index finished at 25,910, up 31 points, and formed a long bullish candle on the daily charts with above-average volumes, indicating a strong comeback of bulls from near the support, though it negated the higher high formation of the previous four straight sessions.

On the weekly chart, the index formed a long bullish candle after three weeks of volatility, rising 1.64 percent. The weekly pattern signals the formation of a 'rising three method' type of formation, which is an uptrend continuation pattern.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the market action indicates the formation of a higher bottom at the 25,740 level, and the underlying trend of the Nifty continues to be positive.

&quot;The overall positive chart pattern signals more upside for the market ahead after a recent downward correction. The next upside to be watched is around the 26,200-26,300 levels. Immediate support is placed at 25,750,&quot; he said.

The weekly options data also indicated 26,000 as the immediate hurdle for the Nifty 50, with the 25,800-25,700 range as support.

The 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, followed by the 26,500 and 26,100 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 26,000, 25,800, and 26,100 strikes. Meanwhile, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,500 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 25,700 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,700, 25,750, and 25,600 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty continued to trade higher for the sixth consecutive session, rising 136 points to end at new closing high of 58,518 and forming a long bullish candle on the daily timeframe.

The banking index traded well above all key moving averages, while the RSI at 67.08 entered the bullish zone and the Stochastic RSI sustained a positive crossover. The weakness in the MACD histogram continued to fade. All of this indicated healthy momentum in the index.

For the week, the index rallied 1.11 percent after flat trades in the previous three weeks, forming a long bullish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe, signaling a positive mood.

Looking at key levels, &quot;the 58,700–58,800 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance. A sustained move above 58,800 could drive the index toward 59,500,&quot; said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

On the downside, the 57,800-57,700 zone is expected to act as a strong support, which also coincides with the 20-day EMA for the index, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear gauge, dropped below the 12 zone to 11.94, down 1.85 percent, providing comfort for the bulls.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street saw a volatile session on November 14 but ended the week on a positive note, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex gaining nearly two percent over the past five sessions. The trade set-up looked weak early in the day as poor global cues threatened to dampen sentiment.

Analysts had expected an NDA win in the Bihar Assembly Elections to support the market, but even as the alliance claimed victory by late morning, the indices continued to trade in the red. In the final half hour, a burst of buying interest lifted the frontline indices back into the green, helping them extend their five-session winning streak.

At close, the Nifty 50 index was at 25,910.05, higher by 31 points or 0.12 percent, while the Sensex index closed at 84,630.96, up 152 points or 0.2 percent.

Most sectoral indices ended in the green, with Nifty PSU Bank leading the gains, rising over one percent. FMCG, pharma, financial services, healthcare, consumer durables, realty and oil and gas also posted modest advances. On the flip side, Nifty IT and metal indices declined, while auto and media closed nearly flat.

Ahead of the Bihar election results, analysts had noted that the Street had priced in the continuation of the NDA government. "The market reaction to the election results will be only temporary, whatever the results might be," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. "The medium to long-term trend of the market will be dictated by fundamentals, particularly the earnings growth. On this front there is room for optimism as indicated by prospects of robust GDP growth and improving earnings growth."

The derivatives setup for today's trade had reflected a mildly bullish undertone. Put writers have actively added positions at nearby strikes, while call writers are showing interest at higher levels, suggesting a consolidation phase with an upward tilt. This was reflected in today's performance, as the benchmarks closed with mild gains.

Ahead of the session, a substantial open interest buildup of 95.97 lakh contracts at the 26,000 call strike highlighted it as a significant resistance ceiling, whereas notable put OI accumulation of 72.05 lakh contracts at the 25,800 strike reaffirms a sturdy base of support.

Simultaneous addition in both call and put writing indicates a balanced yet positive outlook, with traders positioning for range-bound movement. "The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remains in the optimistic band of 1.04–1.34, underscoring the continued bullish bias as market participants hold long positions with confidence," said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty tops 25,900 amid late hour buying, Sensex extends rally to fifth day after recovering from early losses

Dalal Street saw a volatile session on November 14 but ended the week on a positive note, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex gaining nearly two percent over the past five sessions. The trade set-up looked weak early in the day as poor global cues threatened to dampen sentiment.

Analysts had expected an NDA win in the Bihar Assembly Elections to support the market, but even as the alliance claimed victory by late morning, the indices continued to trade in the red. In the final half hour, a burst of buying interest lifted the frontline indices back into the green, helping them extend their five-session winning streak.

At close, the Nifty 50 index was at 25,910.05, higher by 31 points or 0.12 percent, while the Sensex index closed at 84,630.96, up 152 points or 0.2 percent.

Most sectoral indices ended in the green, with Nifty PSU Bank leading the gains, rising over one percent. FMCG, pharma, financial services, healthcare, consumer durables, realty and oil and gas also posted modest advances. On the flip side, Nifty IT and metal indices declined, while auto and media closed nearly flat.

Ahead of the Bihar election results, analysts had noted that the Street had priced in the continuation of the NDA government. &quot;The market reaction to the election results will be only temporary, whatever the results might be,&quot; said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments. &quot;The medium to long-term trend of the market will be dictated by fundamentals, particularly the earnings growth. On this front there is room for optimism as indicated by prospects of robust GDP growth and improving earnings growth.&quot;

The derivatives setup for today's trade had reflected a mildly bullish undertone. Put writers have actively added positions at nearby strikes, while call writers are showing interest at higher levels, suggesting a consolidation phase with an upward tilt. This was reflected in today's performance, as the benchmarks closed with mild gains.

Ahead of the session, a substantial open interest buildup of 95.97 lakh contracts at the 26,000 call strike highlighted it as a significant resistance ceiling, whereas notable put OI accumulation of 72.05 lakh contracts at the 25,800 strike reaffirms a sturdy base of support.

Simultaneous addition in both call and put writing indicates a balanced yet positive outlook, with traders positioning for range-bound movement. &quot;The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remains in the optimistic band of 1.04–1.34, underscoring the continued bullish bias as market participants hold long positions with confidence,&quot; said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
 

4 out of 4 years NIFTY TOTAL MKT has given positive returns in November.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	13,426.58	13,456.27	13,503.58	13,379.27	13,349.58	13,302.27	13,272.58
Fibonacci	13,408.68	13,426.85	13,456.27	13,379.27	13,349.85	13,331.68	13,302.27
Camarilla	13,403.96	13,411.02	13,418.08	13,379.27	13,389.84	13,382.78	13,375.72

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY 750 TOTAL MKT

Net Contribution

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