For the second consecutive time since the 2014 Parliament elections, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has failed to secure a single seat in Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, the victory of Azad Samaj Party (ASP) chief Chandra Shekhar Azad in the 2024 Lok Sabha election signals a potential shift in Dalit political dynamics in the region, challenging the long-standing dominance of BSP chief Mayawati.
“The rise of Chandra Shekhar Azad is a matter of concern for Mayawati. His win from Nagina, a stronghold of BSP, is a clear signal that she is not the only claimant of Dalit votes in UP now. She has got a rival,” said Kamal Jayant, a political analyst and Dalit thinker.
The BSP, which lost power to the Samajwadi Party (SP) in the 2012 assembly polls, has struggled to regain its footing. After winning no seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections amidst a Modi wave, the BSP managed to secure 10 seats in 2019 through an alliance with the SP. However, the party's vote share and seat count have seen a consistent decline over the years.
In the 2012 assembly election, the BSP garnered 25.95% of the votes, translating into 80 seats. This decreased to 22.23% and 19 seats in 2017, and further plummeted to 12.88% and just one seat in 2022. Similarly, in the 2004 Lok Sabha election, the BSP won 19 seats with a 24.67% vote share, and in 2009, it secured 20 seats with a 27.42% vote share. However, this dropped to 19.77% in 2014, with the BSP failing to win any seats, and slightly improved to 19.42% in 2019 when in alliance with the SP.
The steady erosion of the Dalit vote base, along with internal rebellions and Mayawati's inability to recapture power, has raised doubts about her leadership. A significant factor in this decline was Mayawati’s decision to contest elections independently, rejecting alliance offers, particularly from the Congress. This move led to perceptions of the BSP acting as the "B team" of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), further alienating potential allies and voters.
In several constituencies, the BSP fielded Muslim candidates, which led to a split in votes that indirectly benefited the BJP. For instance, in Aonla, BSP candidate Abid Ali garnered about 90,000 votes, while the BJP’s victory margin was within 5,000 votes. Similar scenarios played out in Amroha and Badaun, where BSP candidates received more votes than the BJP's victory margin, impacting the chances of INDI bloc candidates.
Internal conflicts also plagued the BSP. The removal of Akash Anand, Mayawati’s nephew, from his role as coordinator after he criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and controversies surrounding ticket distribution further weakened the party. Last-minute candidate changes and perceived arrogance from Mayawati drove away sitting MPs and eroded the party’s base.
Rise of Chandra Shekhar
The rise of Chandra Shekhar Azad marks a significant challenge to Mayawati’s leadership. Azad’s victory in Nagina, a BSP stronghold previously won by BSP candidate Girish Chandra Jatav in 2019, highlights this shift. Mayawati’s attempt to counter Azad’s influence by sending Akash Anand to campaign in West UP constituencies was undercut by her abrupt decision to remove Akash as party national coordinator.
Chandra Shekhar’s emergence as a formidable force in Dalit politics is likely to further dent the BSP's vote base in West UP, signaling a potential end to Mayawati’s dominance and ushering in a new era of political dynamics in Uttar Pradesh.
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