Maharashtra Exit Polls 2024: NDA to sweep 32-35 seats, INDIA bloc to secure 15-18 seats, predicts News18 exit polls

The BJP contested 25 seats, winning 23, while its then-ally, the Shiv Sena, contested 23 seats and won 18, together achieving a vote share of 51.34 percent.

Shifting Political Landscape 

Since then, internal splits within the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) have reshaped Maharashtra's political alliances. The BJP, now allied with the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's faction of the NCP, bolstered its position through the Mahayuti alliance.

Meanwhile, the remaining factions of Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray and NCP under Sharad Pawar, along with the Indian National Congress (INC), continue to operate under the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) banner, forming a formidable opposition despite internal divisions.

Impact of Splits 

The splits within the Shiv Sena and NCP have the potential to fragment traditional vote banks, possibly benefiting the BJP-led Mahayuti if they can effectively consolidate these votes. Voter loyalty to individual leaders versus party ideologies will be critical, and the electorate's reaction to these splits and realignments will significantly influence the election outcomes.

Shiv Sena Supporters

Traditional Shiv Sena supporters, who view the BJP as a rival, may feel betrayed by the Shinde faction's alliance with the BJP. This move could be seen as a coup, causing discontent among loyalists who prioritise the party's original ideology and Uddhav Thackeray's leadership.

NCP Supporters

Traditional NCP supporters, particularly those loyal to Sharad Pawar, may perceive Ajit Pawar’s alignment with the BJP as a betrayal, leading to backlash and a sense of compromised principles.

Hindutva Ideology

By partnering with the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray risked alienating the Shiv Sena's core Hindutva supporters, who may view this alliance as a deviation from the party’s foundational values.

Voters loyal to specific leaders might remain supportive despite ideological shifts, while others might seek alternatives that better align with their traditional beliefs.

While the BJP-led NDA had a clear advantage in 2019, the current political equations, the emergence of the Mahayuti alliance, and the fragmented opposition represented by the MVA have created a highly competitive and unpredictable political landscape for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra.