On Saturday evening, exit polls conducted by various pollsters in collaboration with news channels were released, all indicating that the NDA government is poised to secure a third term. Most of these exit polls suggest that the NDA will perform better this time compared to the last election.
However, these same exit polls paint a different picture for Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, most exit polls forecast losses for the NDA. According to some predictions, the NDA will lose 10 to 15 seats compared to the last election, while others have awarded more seats to the opposition alliance, Maha Vikas Aghadi (INDIA), than to the Mahayuti (NDA).
These figures are particularly concerning for Shiv Sena president Eknath Shinde and NCP president Ajit Pawar, raising questions about their political futures and sparking discussions about whether the electorate has rejected their rebellions.
Maharashtra has a total of 48 Lok Sabha seats, the second highest after Uttar Pradesh. In the 2019 elections, the NDA, consisting of the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena, won a total of 42 seats, including one independent MP.
Here’s a breakdown of what the various exit polls predict for Maharashtra:
News 18: NDA 32 seats, INDIA 15 to 18 seats.
Today's Chanakya: NDA 33 seats, INDIA 15 seats.
TV-9: NDA 22 seats, INDIA 25 seats.
Republic TV: NDA 30 to 36 seats, INDIA 13 to 19 seats.
India Today-Axis: NDA 28 to 32 seats, INDIA 16 to 20 seats.
ABP News: NDA 24 seats, INDIA 23 seats.
Jan Ki Baat: NDA 34 to 41 seats, INDIA 9 to 16 seats.
A notable aspect of this election in Maharashtra is the increase in major parties from four in the last election to six now, due to the rebellion in Shiv Sena in 2022 and NCP in 2023. People are very curious about how the rebel factions will perform. On average, across all exit polls, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena is getting a total of 7 seats, and Ajit Pawar's NCP seems to be getting only one seat. Notably, TV-9 has given zero seats to Ajit Pawar's NCP, while ABP News has given just one.
These figures indicate that the emotional appeals of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray have resonated with voters, garnering them sympathy. BJP's votes did not transfer to Ajit Pawar's NCP. Inducting "tainted" leaders from Shiv Sena and NCP has backfired on BJP. Although BJP may emerge as the largest party, securing 18 to 20 seats on average according to all exit polls, it is still at a loss compared to the last election, where it won 23 seats alone. One reason behind NDA's setback in Maharashtra is the delay in announcing candidates due to disputes over seat allocation. On some seats, both allies staked claims. When one party got the seat, the candidate from the other party did not support the alliance candidate or even worked to defeat them. Additionally, the Maratha reservation movement and farmers' discontent in the state have also harmed the NDA.
We will soon find out how accurate or inaccurate these exit poll results are when the EVMs are opened in just a few hours. It cannot be ruled out that all these exit polls might be proven wrong, as has happened in the past. However, if they turn out to be accurate, the impact of these election results will also be seen in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, which are just four months away. There will likely be reshuffling within both alliances, many leaders will switch sides, and in those elections, Raj Thackeray will be seen campaigning for votes for his party.
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