In the sixth phase on Saturday (May 25) polling begins for 58 Lok Sabha seats across 8 states and Union Territories, notably, the Anantnag-Rajouri seat of Jammu and Kashmir was shifted to this phase. Of these 57 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP has held 40 while Congress does not have even a single sitting MP in these constituencies. It appears that the BJP would be playing on its strongest wicket, while Congress is at its weakest.
In terms of vote share, the BJP garnered 47% votes in these constituencies, which is 10% higher compared to the BJP’s national average in 2019. On the other hand, the Congress had polled only 11.8% votes, almost eight percent lower compared to its vote share of 19.6% in 2019. Congress allies are defending 1 Lok Sabha seat, while the BJP allies had won 5 Lok Sabha seats.
In 2019, the BJP put up a stellar show in Delhi and adjoining Haryana by winning all seven and ten Lok Sabha seats in the two states, respectively. Not only did BJP win all these seats, but in Haryana it polled 58% of votes while in Delhi it got 56.6% of votes.
Of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in UP, the BSP would be defending four seats with a vote share of 35.7% in this phase. The BJP would be defending nine seats with a vote share of 45.6%.
In West Bengal, the BJP has an upper hand over the ruling Trinmool Congress as it is defending 5 Lok Sabha seats with a vote share of 44.6% while TMC is defending 3 constituencies with a vote share of 43.4%.
In Odisha while in terms of number of seats, the BJP is only defending two Lok Sabha seats (Sambalpur and Bhubaneswar) while the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) would be defending four seats. But it is important to note that, the BJP’s vote share (42.8%) was just three percent less compared to the BJD’s (45.8%) vote share in the constituencies which goes to poll today. Clearly, this is the BJP’s strongest phase going by its performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
The only state where BJP seems relatively weaker is Bihar where it would be defending only 4 of the 8 Lok Sabha seats with a vote share of 28.8% while its ally JD(U) would be defending 3 seats with a vote share of 19.9%.
Overall the BJP’s success rate in this phase during the 2019 Lok Sabha election was little over 70%, a remarkable performance for any party. Besides these seats, the lone seat of Anantnag Rajouri of Jammu and Kashmir also goes to poll in this phase.
It is often said the bigger the success, the greater the responsibility; this seems to be the case for BJP. The BJP needs to repeat its 2019 performance - if not a better showing, for it to come anywhere close to its national tally of 303 seats in 2019.
The fates of many prominent politicians are also going to be decided in this phase, namely Maneka Gandhi from Sultanpur Lok Sabha seat in UP; ex-Chief Minister of Haryana Manohar Lal Khattar; Naveen Jindal - who has recently switched from Congress to BJP, is contesting from Haryana’s Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat; Sambit Patra from Puri and Aparajita Sarangi from Bhubaneswar Lok Sabha seats. Given the heat wave in many parts of country, turnout may be a concern though Election Commission is trying its best to make voters feel comfortable.
The result of this high-voltage election will be declared on June 4. Will BJP come to power for the third term or will INDIA Bloc taste victory? Only time will tell.
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