The first thing to remember where Bihar is concerned is it is only among the 3 states to undergo 7-phase voting. The other 2 are: Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Sitting with 40 Lok Sabha seats in its ambit, it offers rich pickings to the victor.
No wonder the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, views this as prime territory. And the individual on whom NDA is banking upon to wave the magic wand is none other than Narendra Modi.
Political observers say Bihar would be voting on national issues while the main NDA face would be that of Modi. In fact, Bihar has a tripod: RJD (Tejaswi Yadav), BJP (Modi) and JD(U) - Nitish Kumar.
In this tripod it becomes increasingly clear that the dice is loaded heavily in favour of the NDA alliance. Does the 7-phase voting help in beefing up the NDA numbers? Well, the opinion is divided. A large section feels it gives robust advantage to NDA as it has Modi as the ace in the pack besides superior firepower of resources.
Modi would be hitting Bihar repeatedly as the heat of campaign builds up. There is a minority view though which says the advantage of a big open window is available to all.
How does one define an Ace ? It could be a playing card with a single figure in the middle, which can be the highest value; a highly skilled person; or someone who excels at something. In that context, the Bihar pack of cards lacks aces.
Nitish Kumar after his numerous somersaults is not the same force which he used to be. RJD's Lalu Prasad Yadav has seen better days. He is bogged down with ill-health and court cases. His son Tejaswi does have a bright ring around but needs to do much more to be recognised as a triumphant gladiator in the cauldron of election amphitheatre.
NDA's seat sharing agreement gives BJP 17 seats, its ally Janata Dal (U) has 16 seats, alongside Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan to fight on 5 seats, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) at one seat each.
It is evident Nitish Kumar must do his share of heavy lifting. But can he? Through the kind lens one gleans while he might be described or vilified as "doglaa" or "gaddar" (loosely fits in close to Traitor) he is definitely not seen as corrupt or "chor." Nitish can exhale there.
In fact, talking about his strengths, Nitish is known to be an astute administrator who somehow got mired in the balancing act of survival. Had he been with the BJP or even RJD as a full-time member, perhaps the administrator in him could have served Bihar better. Instead, one of the bright sparks of Parliament, known for his stinging well-researched interjections, metamorphosed into a wily politician obsessed with staying alive. That cost him dearly.
But all is not lost. The BJP knows it has multiple lobbies in its ranks headed by Deputy Chief Ministers Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, plus the ailing Sushil Modi. Therefore it makes sense to have Narendra Modi's face as the unifying factor and trump card while Nitish could be backed as an able General.
After all, the celebrated General Bernard Montgomery in August 1942, through the Second Battle of El Alamein and on to the final Allied victory in Tunisia in May 1943, had the astute backing of Prime Minister Winston Churchill. It elucidates the fact that to be a successful General one needs the back-up flank protected.
Sitting on the dais at Jamui with PM Modi , Nitish rained hell. "We had sided with liars, but when we saw the troubles emerging, we separated." Pointing towards Modi, he promised "now we are united forever."
He tipped his hat to Modi for supporting developmental strides made in Bihar, particularly in infrastructure projects such as road and bridge construction.
Nitish talks of communal harmony to punch holes into Lalu's dominant Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote bastion. By underlining the decrease in Hindu-Muslim conflicts following the NDA's rise to power, he aims to get the Muslim votes.
Despite the NDA's claims of expecting to win all 40 seats in the state, it is banking on a "good social alliance" - with Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha to get the non-Yadav OBCs, a fair chunk of EBCs and Dalit votes, respectively.
Let's look at the NDA alliance gains for the Lok Sabha polls:
- Nitish Kumar has strong backing from certain OBC communities, especially Koeri-Kurmis and lower OBCs.
- The NDA alliance are consolidating OBC votes, which may contribute to an increased vote share.
- After 2014, Nitish's return to the NDA played a key role in gaining substantial votes.
- The 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar saw an increase in voter turnout,
- Parties securing higher vote shares and Candidates winning by high margins
These changes reflect Bihar's evolving political landscape. Leaders like Nitish Kumar, whose expertise in social engineering, made a substantial impact in favour of the NDA. Let's not forget Nitish became the CM for the 9th time in Bihar. His latest move is tantalising in the sense that it lends excitement to a key election.
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