The southwest monsoon is set to make landfall in Kerala within the next two to three days, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday, indicating that conditions remain on track for a timely onset.
“The conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during the next 2–3 days,” the IMD said in a statement. This year's onset prediction sits comfortably within the IMD's initial forecast of May 27, with a model error margin of four days. In 2024, the monsoon arrived on May 30.
“The conditions are favourable and the monsoon is advancing as per the schedule. If conditions remain conducive, then it is likely to hit the Kerala coast by May 25, as predicted by us,” said a senior official from the department, quoted Live Mint.
The timely arrival of monsoon rains is a critical factor for India, where nearly 70% of the annual rainfall comes during the June–September period. These rains are vital for irrigating crops and replenishing groundwater and reservoirs, directly influencing the country’s agricultural output and rural economy.
In a positive sign, the IMD has projected an above-average monsoon for 2025, raising hopes of a strong kharif crop season and contributing to rural income, food security and overall economic growth. Early rains are expected to support the sowing of rice, maize, cotton, soybean and oilseeds and bolster reservoir levels ahead of the rabi season.
Apart from Kerala, the IMD has forecast the advance of the southwest monsoon into more areas across South and Central Arabian Sea, the Maldives and Comorin region, parts of Lakshadweep, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, the South and Central Bay of Bengal, the North Bay of Bengal and portions of the Northeastern states during the same window, Live Mint reported.
In parallel, a low-pressure system has reportedly formed over the east central Arabian Sea, off the south Konkan-Goa coast. The weather bureau noted that it is likely to intensify into a depression while moving northwards over the next 36 hours. The system could influence local weather patterns, bringing rainfall and wind changes across parts of the western coast.
The progress of the monsoon is being closely watched amid a broader anticipation of relief from ongoing heatwave conditions in parts of the country. It is also expected to ease pressure on food inflation and aid in energy and water management in the coming months.
As of now, no major delays or deviations have been flagged in the monsoon’s trajectory, offering a positive outlook for the agriculture sector and water-dependent regions across India.
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