The southwest monsoon is likely to hit the Kerala coast earlier than the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) previously forecast date of May 27, marking a quicker-than-usual onset of the crucial rainy season that plays a vital role in India’s agricultural and economic cycles.
According to the IMD’s latest update, conditions are now increasingly favourable for the monsoon to set in over Kerala “during the next 4-5 days”, possibly around May 23 or 24, as opposed to its earlier long-term average date of June 1 and the department’s own initial estimate of May 27 this year.
The IMD on Sunday also issued a weather advisory forecasting heavy to very heavy rainfall over the west coast, including Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and Kerala, as well as adjoining parts of Peninsular India between May 18 and 24, as per Financial Express.
Following this spell, conditions are expected to become favourable for the further advancement of the southwest monsoon over several key regions — including parts of the south Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin area (the southern tip of India) and the south, central and northeast Bay of Bengal — in the next 2–3 days.
Typically, the monsoon, after making its onset over Kerala in early June, goes on to cover the entire country by July. The seasonal rains then begin to retreat gradually from northern India by mid-September.
This development is significant, considering the monsoon’s timing directly influences the sowing of crops across large parts of the country, especially in rain-fed regions. Nearly 75% of India’s annual rainfall comes from the southwest monsoon, which in turn affects food prices, inflation and overall economic stability.
IMD’s early monsoon indication is supported by atmospheric and oceanic observations, including increased cloud formation, strengthening cross-equatorial flow and consistent rainfall activity over the Bay of Bengal.
The Livemint report highlights that the early onset this year is part of a pattern seen in recent years, likely influenced by changing climate dynamics. However, an early onset does not necessarily guarantee uniform or above-normal rainfall across the country, a point the IMD has repeatedly cautioned about.
Farmers across southern India haver reportedly begun preparing fields in anticipation, though agricultural experts urge caution until further updates confirm the rainfall’s strength and consistency.
The early arrival also has implications for urban planning and flood preparedness, especially in Kerala, which has witnessed severe flooding during past monsoons. Local authorities are reportedly preparing for pre-monsoon cleaning drives and ensuring drainage systems are ready.
For now, all eyes remain on the Arabian Sea as the monsoon winds build momentum, pushing their way towards Kerala — a state whose coastline first greets the rains every year.
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