SENSEX

Earnings growth can begin to improve in 2026, with a reasonable chance of better momentum versus late 2025, but the path may be lumpy across sectors, said Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at INVasset PMS, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, broad-based acceleration in earnings is more likely when credit growth, government capex execution, and private investment intent move together.

He is of the view that a 15–20 percent market rally in 2026 is possible, but treating it as a base-case expectation would be premature because it requires multiple variables to align at the same time. "If earnings compound strongly and the cost of capital eases, the index can deliver high-teens returns even without exuberance," he said.

Will 2026 be a strong year for new-age stocks, given the high level of competitive intensity in these segments?

A “strong year” for new-age companies in 2026 is more likely to be decided by micro fundamentals than by a broad risk-on tide. Competitive intensity remains structurally high in most digital categories because customer acquisition is still contested, switching costs are often lower than perceived, and incumbents have also learned to compete with capital and data. In that setting, revenue growth alone is unlikely to be sufficient for sustained outperformance; the market is increasingly rewarding clear unit economics, predictable contribution margins, and credible paths to free cash flow generation.

The more supportive case for 2026 is that capital has become more selective, which can reduce irrational price wars and push weaker models into consolidation, partnerships, or rationalization. If that discipline holds, a subset of businesses could see improved pricing power and better operating leverage.

However, this is not a uniform outcome across the “new-age” bucket; categories exposed to frequent discounting, regulatory scrutiny, or commoditized supply may continue to see volatility even if top-line growth looks healthy.

Valuations and market positioning also matter. Where expectations already embed flawless execution, even good results can be met with muted price response. Conversely, companies that demonstrate improving cash conversion cycles, lower customer acquisition intensity, and durable retention metrics may see rerating potential. Overall, 2026 could be constructive for select new-age businesses, but it is more likely to be a year of differentiation than a synchronized upcycle for the segment.

Do you expect strong earnings visibility in the power sector to continue going forward?

Earnings visibility in the power sector has improved materially over the last few years, but its durability depends on where in the value chain one is looking and on the stability of the policy and payment ecosystem. The more visible segments typically share three features: contracted revenues, pass-through frameworks for key input costs, and stronger counterparty discipline. Where these conditions hold, earnings tend to be less sensitive to short-term demand swings and more driven by capacity utilization, regulated returns, and execution of capex pipelines.

A constructive base case for “visibility continuing” rests on three drivers: sustained demand growth from electrification and industrial activity, continued grid capex to absorb renewables, and better contracting structures that reduce merchant exposure. The key watchpoints are receivable days, regulatory timelines, and how quickly ancillary infrastructure (storage, transmission, flexible capacity) scales. Net-net, visibility can remain relatively strong, but it is likely to be uneven—stronger in contracted and regulated pockets, and more cyclical where exposure to spot prices, policy timing, or counterparty health is higher.

Do you believe that a rollback or downward revision of Trump-era tariff rates would meaningfully support economic and earnings growth, or would it primarily result in a short-term boost to market sentiment?

A rollback of legacy tariff rates can have both sentiment and fundamental effects, but the balance between the two depends on scope, sequencing, and whether it durably reduces uncertainty. In the near term, markets tend to respond quickly because tariffs are a visible signal of trade posture. Even incremental de-escalation can compress risk premia, improve business confidence, and support equity multiples—particularly in globally integrated sectors where policy uncertainty has been a persistent overhang.

The more fundamental channel works through lower input costs, reduced frictions in supply chains, and improved export competitiveness where retaliatory measures ease. Over time, that can support margins and volumes. However, the magnitude should not be overstated. Many supply chains have already adapted through re-routing, localization, and inventory buffers; part of the tariff impact has been embedded into pricing, sourcing strategies, and capital allocation decisions. A rollback may therefore deliver incremental relief rather than a full reversal of earlier economic distortions.

There is also a second-order macro consideration: tariffs interact with inflation, central-bank reaction functions, and fiscal expectations. If tariff reductions ease goods inflation at the margin, they can create room for more accommodative financial conditions, indirectly supporting growth and earnings. But if the rollback is partial, politically contested, or paired with new sector-specific restrictions, the net outcome can remain uncertain.

Overall, a meaningful, broad-based, and credible tariff easing would likely be supportive for real economic activity over time, but the first impact is often sentiment-driven. The durability of the move would be judged by follow-through—trade negotiation progress, clarity on future policy, and evidence that corporate investment plans are becoming less defensive.

Do you expect the market to deliver a 15–20 percent rally in 2026, assuming the worst is now behind us?

A 15–20 percent market rally in 2026 is possible, but treating it as a base-case expectation would be premature because it requires multiple variables to align at the same time. Equity returns at that magnitude typically come from a combination of earnings growth and either stable-to-improving valuations or a clear liquidity/flow tailwind. If earnings compound strongly and the cost of capital eases, the index can deliver high-teens returns even without exuberance. But if valuations are already elevated in parts of the market, the same earnings growth can translate into more moderate index returns as multiples normalize or remain range-bound.

The assumption that “the worst is now behind” is itself the key sensitivity. Markets often bottom ahead of fundamentals, but 2026 outcomes will likely be shaped by the path of inflation, global growth, and policy—particularly how quickly rate cuts, if any, transmit into credit growth, consumption, and capex. Domestic liquidity and participation trends can provide resilience, yet they do not eliminate drawdowns if global risk aversion rises or if earnings disappoint versus expectations.

A reasonable institutional framing is scenario-based. In a constructive scenario—benign inflation, steady domestic demand, improving capex cycle, and stable global conditions—high-teens returns are within reach. In a more mixed scenario—patchy global growth, intermittent risk-off episodes, and earnings that grow but do not surprise—returns may be positive but lower, with higher volatility and sharper rotations under the surface. The risk scenario is where growth slows unexpectedly, or policy uncertainty rises, compressing multiples even if earnings are not collapsing.

Therefore, the probability of a 15–20 percent rally exists, but it is not a default. The more dependable strategy is to focus on the breadth of earnings, balance-sheet strength, and valuation discipline rather than targeting a specific index number.

Based on recent data points and management interactions, do you believe earnings growth will begin to accelerate from the start of 2026?

Earnings acceleration from the start of 2026 is plausible, but it should be framed as a conditional probability rather than a straight-line extrapolation. The early part of any calendar year is often shaped by base effects, inventory cycles, and the lagged impact of financial conditions. If interest rates are on a durable downshift and liquidity remains supportive, operating leverage can improve and credit-sensitive segments can start seeing better volume growth. That is typically the setup in which earnings growth broadens beyond a narrow leadership cohort.

However, acceleration “from the start” requires that multiple drivers show up simultaneously: demand holding up in both urban and rural pockets, input-cost stability that protects margins, and a capex cycle that translates into order flows and utilization rather than staying confined to balance sheets. Externally, the outlook for exports and global manufacturing also matters. If developed-market growth is uneven or if trade policy uncertainty persists, globally exposed earnings can remain choppy even while domestic-facing businesses improve.

A balanced view is that earnings growth can begin to improve into 2026, with a reasonable chance of better momentum versus late 2025, but the path may be lumpy across sectors. Broad-based acceleration is more likely when credit growth, government capex execution, and private investment intent move together. Absent that synchronization, 2026 may still deliver healthy earnings, but with staggered timing rather than a clean inflection right from the start.

The Bank of Japan raised its key short-term interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent at its December meeting—the highest level since September 1995. What are the implications of this move for India, the global economy, and the Japanese currency relative to the US dollar?

The Bank of Japan’s move to 0.75 percent is symbolically significant because it reinforces Japan’s exit from an era of ultra-low rates and signals a greater willingness to normalize policy if domestic inflation dynamics and wage trends allow. For global markets, the first-order implication is the potential reshaping of capital flows. Japan has long been a funding source for global carry trades; higher domestic yields can reduce the incentive to deploy capital abroad, particularly if risk-adjusted returns compress elsewhere. This can tighten global financial conditions at the margin, especially during periods of risk-off when investors prefer to repatriate.

For the Japanese currency versus the US dollar, the direction is not mechanically one-way. A rate hike can support the yen, but the relative rate differential still matters more than the absolute move. If US yields remain meaningfully higher, the dollar can stay supported even as Japan tightens. The yen’s path will also reflect forward guidance and whether markets price a sustained hiking cycle or treat this as cautious normalization. Short-term volatility is likely as positioning adjusts.

For India, the direct trade impact is limited compared to larger partners, but the financial spillovers matter. If global yields rise or risk premia widen due to repatriation flows, emerging-market assets can see intermittent pressure, including on bonds, equities, and currency. Conversely, a stronger yen can support Japanese outbound investment sentiment over time, which is relevant for India’s manufacturing and infrastructure investment corridors. The practical takeaway is that this BOJ shift adds another variable to global liquidity conditions in 2026: not necessarily a risk event by itself, but a regime change that can amplify market moves when combined with US policy uncertainty and global growth surprises.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Daily Voice | Earnings growth to strengthen into 2026; broader lift needs credit, capex: Anirudh Garg

Earnings growth can begin to improve in 2026, with a reasonable chance of better momentum versus late 2025, but the path may be lumpy across sectors, said Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at INVasset PMS, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, broad-based acceleration in earnings is more likely when credit growth, government capex execution, and private investment intent move together.

He is of the view that a 15–20 percent market rally in 2026 is possible, but treating it as a base-case expectation would be premature because it requires multiple variables to align at the same time. &quot;If earnings compound strongly and the cost of capital eases, the index can deliver high-teens returns even without exuberance,&quot; he said.

Will 2026 be a strong year for new-age stocks, given the high level of competitive intensity in these segments?

A “strong year” for new-age companies in 2026 is more likely to be decided by micro fundamentals than by a broad risk-on tide. Competitive intensity remains structurally high in most digital categories because customer acquisition is still contested, switching costs are often lower than perceived, and incumbents have also learned to compete with capital and data. In that setting, revenue growth alone is unlikely to be sufficient for sustained outperformance; the market is increasingly rewarding clear unit economics, predictable contribution margins, and credible paths to free cash flow generation.

The more supportive case for 2026 is that capital has become more selective, which can reduce irrational price wars and push weaker models into consolidation, partnerships, or rationalization. If that discipline holds, a subset of businesses could see improved pricing power and better operating leverage.

However, this is not a uniform outcome across the “new-age” bucket; categories exposed to frequent discounting, regulatory scrutiny, or commoditized supply may continue to see volatility even if top-line growth looks healthy.

Valuations and market positioning also matter. Where expectations already embed flawless execution, even good results can be met with muted price response. Conversely, companies that demonstrate improving cash conversion cycles, lower customer acquisition intensity, and durable retention metrics may see rerating potential. Overall, 2026 could be constructive for select new-age businesses, but it is more likely to be a year of differentiation than a synchronized upcycle for the segment.

Do you expect strong earnings visibility in the power sector to continue going forward?

Earnings visibility in the power sector has improved materially over the last few years, but its durability depends on where in the value chain one is looking and on the stability of the policy and payment ecosystem. The more visible segments typically share three features: contracted revenues, pass-through frameworks for key input costs, and stronger counterparty discipline. Where these conditions hold, earnings tend to be less sensitive to short-term demand swings and more driven by capacity utilization, regulated returns, and execution of capex pipelines.

A constructive base case for “visibility continuing” rests on three drivers: sustained demand growth from electrification and industrial activity, continued grid capex to absorb renewables, and better contracting structures that reduce merchant exposure. The key watchpoints are receivable days, regulatory timelines, and how quickly ancillary infrastructure (storage, transmission, flexible capacity) scales. Net-net, visibility can remain relatively strong, but it is likely to be uneven—stronger in contracted and regulated pockets, and more cyclical where exposure to spot prices, policy timing, or counterparty health is higher.

Do you believe that a rollback or downward revision of Trump-era tariff rates would meaningfully support economic and earnings growth, or would it primarily result in a short-term boost to market sentiment?

A rollback of legacy tariff rates can have both sentiment and fundamental effects, but the balance between the two depends on scope, sequencing, and whether it durably reduces uncertainty. In the near term, markets tend to respond quickly because tariffs are a visible signal of trade posture. Even incremental de-escalation can compress risk premia, improve business confidence, and support equity multiples—particularly in globally integrated sectors where policy uncertainty has been a persistent overhang.

The more fundamental channel works through lower input costs, reduced frictions in supply chains, and improved export competitiveness where retaliatory measures ease. Over time, that can support margins and volumes. However, the magnitude should not be overstated. Many supply chains have already adapted through re-routing, localization, and inventory buffers; part of the tariff impact has been embedded into pricing, sourcing strategies, and capital allocation decisions. A rollback may therefore deliver incremental relief rather than a full reversal of earlier economic distortions.

There is also a second-order macro consideration: tariffs interact with inflation, central-bank reaction functions, and fiscal expectations. If tariff reductions ease goods inflation at the margin, they can create room for more accommodative financial conditions, indirectly supporting growth and earnings. But if the rollback is partial, politically contested, or paired with new sector-specific restrictions, the net outcome can remain uncertain.

Overall, a meaningful, broad-based, and credible tariff easing would likely be supportive for real economic activity over time, but the first impact is often sentiment-driven. The durability of the move would be judged by follow-through—trade negotiation progress, clarity on future policy, and evidence that corporate investment plans are becoming less defensive.

Do you expect the market to deliver a 15–20 percent rally in 2026, assuming the worst is now behind us?

A 15–20 percent market rally in 2026 is possible, but treating it as a base-case expectation would be premature because it requires multiple variables to align at the same time. Equity returns at that magnitude typically come from a combination of earnings growth and either stable-to-improving valuations or a clear liquidity/flow tailwind. If earnings compound strongly and the cost of capital eases, the index can deliver high-teens returns even without exuberance. But if valuations are already elevated in parts of the market, the same earnings growth can translate into more moderate index returns as multiples normalize or remain range-bound.

The assumption that “the worst is now behind” is itself the key sensitivity. Markets often bottom ahead of fundamentals, but 2026 outcomes will likely be shaped by the path of inflation, global growth, and policy—particularly how quickly rate cuts, if any, transmit into credit growth, consumption, and capex. Domestic liquidity and participation trends can provide resilience, yet they do not eliminate drawdowns if global risk aversion rises or if earnings disappoint versus expectations.

A reasonable institutional framing is scenario-based. In a constructive scenario—benign inflation, steady domestic demand, improving capex cycle, and stable global conditions—high-teens returns are within reach. In a more mixed scenario—patchy global growth, intermittent risk-off episodes, and earnings that grow but do not surprise—returns may be positive but lower, with higher volatility and sharper rotations under the surface. The risk scenario is where growth slows unexpectedly, or policy uncertainty rises, compressing multiples even if earnings are not collapsing.

Therefore, the probability of a 15–20 percent rally exists, but it is not a default. The more dependable strategy is to focus on the breadth of earnings, balance-sheet strength, and valuation discipline rather than targeting a specific index number.

Based on recent data points and management interactions, do you believe earnings growth will begin to accelerate from the start of 2026?

Earnings acceleration from the start of 2026 is plausible, but it should be framed as a conditional probability rather than a straight-line extrapolation. The early part of any calendar year is often shaped by base effects, inventory cycles, and the lagged impact of financial conditions. If interest rates are on a durable downshift and liquidity remains supportive, operating leverage can improve and credit-sensitive segments can start seeing better volume growth. That is typically the setup in which earnings growth broadens beyond a narrow leadership cohort.

However, acceleration “from the start” requires that multiple drivers show up simultaneously: demand holding up in both urban and rural pockets, input-cost stability that protects margins, and a capex cycle that translates into order flows and utilization rather than staying confined to balance sheets. Externally, the outlook for exports and global manufacturing also matters. If developed-market growth is uneven or if trade policy uncertainty persists, globally exposed earnings can remain choppy even while domestic-facing businesses improve.

A balanced view is that earnings growth can begin to improve into 2026, with a reasonable chance of better momentum versus late 2025, but the path may be lumpy across sectors. Broad-based acceleration is more likely when credit growth, government capex execution, and private investment intent move together. Absent that synchronization, 2026 may still deliver healthy earnings, but with staggered timing rather than a clean inflection right from the start.

The Bank of Japan raised its key short-term interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent at its December meeting—the highest level since September 1995. What are the implications of this move for India, the global economy, and the Japanese currency relative to the US dollar?

The Bank of Japan’s move to 0.75 percent is symbolically significant because it reinforces Japan’s exit from an era of ultra-low rates and signals a greater willingness to normalize policy if domestic inflation dynamics and wage trends allow. For global markets, the first-order implication is the potential reshaping of capital flows. Japan has long been a funding source for global carry trades; higher domestic yields can reduce the incentive to deploy capital abroad, particularly if risk-adjusted returns compress elsewhere. This can tighten global financial conditions at the margin, especially during periods of risk-off when investors prefer to repatriate.

For the Japanese currency versus the US dollar, the direction is not mechanically one-way. A rate hike can support the yen, but the relative rate differential still matters more than the absolute move. If US yields remain meaningfully higher, the dollar can stay supported even as Japan tightens. The yen’s path will also reflect forward guidance and whether markets price a sustained hiking cycle or treat this as cautious normalization. Short-term volatility is likely as positioning adjusts.

For India, the direct trade impact is limited compared to larger partners, but the financial spillovers matter. If global yields rise or risk premia widen due to repatriation flows, emerging-market assets can see intermittent pressure, including on bonds, equities, and currency. Conversely, a stronger yen can support Japanese outbound investment sentiment over time, which is relevant for India’s manufacturing and infrastructure investment corridors. The practical takeaway is that this BOJ shift adds another variable to global liquidity conditions in 2026: not necessarily a risk event by itself, but a regime change that can amplify market moves when combined with US policy uncertainty and global growth surprises.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734901" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220054959_bse_nse_stockmarket_nifty_sensex-2.jpg" alt="The Indian equity market ended lower for the second consecutive week amid volatility led by continued outflow of FII and depreciation in rupee amid delay in potential India-US trade deal." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian equity market ended lower for the second consecutive week amid volatility led by the continued outflow of FII and depreciation in the rupee amid the delay in the India-US trade deal.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734902" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220055129_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="BSE Sensex index fell 338.3 points or 0.39 percent at 84,929.36, while Nifty50 index shed 80.55 points or 0.30 percent at 25,966.40." width="1280" height="720" /> BSE Sensex index fell 338.3 points or 0.39 percent at 84,929.36, while Nifty50 index shed 80.55 points or 0.30 percent at 25,966.40.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734933" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220063946_sensex_stocks_nifty.jpg" alt="The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal losses. Indian Overseas Bank, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Siemens Energy India, Axis Bank, Adani Total Gas, Cummins India, JSW Steel, Eternal fell between 4-8 percent, while gainers included Vedanta, Shriram Finance, Interglobe Aviation, Hindustan Zinc, Britannia Industries." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal losses. Indian Overseas Bank, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Siemens Energy India, Axis Bank, Adani Total Gas, Cummins India, JSW Steel, and Eternal fell between 4-8 percent, while gainers included Vedanta, Shriram Finance, Interglobe Aviation, Hindustan Zinc, and Britannia Industries.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734935" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064037_market_stocks_sensex_Nifty.jpg" alt="BSE Mid-cap Index ended on flat note. New India Assurance Company, Ola Electric Mobility, JK Cement, Hitachi Energy India, Punjab and Sind Bank, Steel Authority of India, General Insurance Corporation of India, GE Vernova TD India fell between 4-9 percent. However, Deepak Nitrite, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Tata Elxsi, Bharti Hexacom, Ashok Leyland, KEI Industries added 5-9 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> BSE Mid-cap Index ended on a flat note. New India Assurance Company, Ola Electric Mobility, JK Cement, Hitachi Energy India, Punjab and Sind Bank, Steel Authority of India, General Insurance Corporation of India, GE Vernova TD India fell between 4-9 percent. However, Deepak Nitrite, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Tata Elxsi, Bharti Hexacom, Ashok Leyland, and KEI Industries added 5-9 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734938" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064108_stocks5.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, DCX Systems added more than 15 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, and Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, and DCX Systems added more than 15 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734940" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064255_Sensex_nifty_market_flat.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, DCX Systems added more than 15 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, and DCX Systems added more than 15 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734941" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064326_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="Among sectors, Nifty Private Bank and Media indices lost 1 percent each, Nifty Auto, Nifty India Defence and Nifty Bank shed 0.5% each. However, Nifty PSU Bank, and IT indices added 1% each, while Nifty FMCG and Nifty Consumer Durables rose 0.5% each." width="1280" height="720" /> Among sectors, Nifty Private Bank and Media indices lost 1 percent each, Nifty Auto, Nifty India Defence, and Nifty Bank shed 0.5% each. However, Nifty PSU Bank and IT indices added 1% each, while Nifty FMCG and Nifty Consumer Durables rose 0.5% each.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734942" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064355_market_up_higher.jpg" alt="During the week, HDFC Bank lost the most in terms of market value, followed by Axis Bank, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Eternal. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, State Bank of India, added the most of their market-cap. " width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, HDFC Bank lost the most in terms of market value, followed by Axis Bank, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, and Eternal. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and State Bank of India added the most of their market-cap.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734943" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064420_market1.jpg" alt="The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for last three consecutive session of the week, but they remained net sellers for the week as they sold equities of only Rs 251.86 crore as compared to last week's selling of Rs 9,201.89 crore. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in this week also as they bought equities worth Rs 12,061.92 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers for the last three consecutive sessions of the week, but they remained net sellers for the week as they sold equities of only Rs 251.86 crore, as compared to last week's selling of Rs 9,201.89 crore. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying this week, also as they bought equities worth Rs 12,061.92 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734944" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064449_rupee_dollar.jpg" alt="During the week the Indian rupee has touched record low of 91.08 but made strong rebound from the lows and ended higher by 77 paise at 89.65 on December 19 against December 12 closing of 90.42. During the week, the Indian rupee traded between 89.64-91.08." width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, the Indian rupee has touched a record low of 91.08 but made a strong rebound from the lows and ended higher by 77 paise at 89.65 on December 19 against the December 12 closing of 90.42. During the week, the Indian rupee traded between 89.64 and 91.08.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in this week also as they bought equities worth Rs 12,061.92 crore.

The Indian equity market ended lower for the second consecutive week amid volatility led by continued outflow of FII and depreciation in rupee amid delay in potential India-US trade deal.

BSE Sensex index fell 338.3 points or 0.39 percent at 84,929.36, while Nifty50 index shed 80.55 points or 0.30 percent at 25,966.40.

The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal losses. Indian Overseas Bank, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Siemens Energy India, Axis Bank, Adani Total Gas, Cummins India, JSW Steel, Eternal fell between 4-8 percent, while gainers included Vedanta, Shriram Finance, Interglobe Aviation, Hindustan Zinc, Britannia Industries.

BSE Mid-cap Index ended on flat note. New India Assurance Company, Ola Electric Mobility, JK Cement, Hitachi Energy India, Punjab and Sind Bank, Steel Authority of India, General Insurance Corporation of India, GE Vernova TD India fell between 4-9 percent. However, Deepak Nitrite, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Tata Elxsi, Bharti Hexacom, Ashok Leyland, KEI Industries added 5-9 percent.

The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, DCX Systems added more than 15 percent.

Among sectors, Nifty Private Bank and Media indices lost 1 percent each, Nifty Auto, Nifty India Defence and Nifty Bank shed 0.5% each. However, Nifty PSU Bank, and IT indices added 1% each, while Nifty FMCG and Nifty Consumer Durables rose 0.5% each.

During the week, HDFC Bank lost the most in terms of market value, followed by Axis Bank, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Eternal. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, State Bank of India, added the most of their market-cap. 

The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for last three consecutive session of the week, but they remained net sellers for the week as they sold equities of only Rs 251.86 crore as compared to last week's selling of Rs 9,201.89 crore. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in this week also as they bought equities worth Rs 12,061.92 crore.

During the week the Indian rupee has touched record low of 91.08 but made strong rebound from the lows and ended higher by 77 paise at 89.65 on December 19 against December 12 closing of 90.42. During the week, the Indian rupee traded between 89.64-91.08.

Market extends losses amid volatility; rupee recovers from record low

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734901" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220054959_bse_nse_stockmarket_nifty_sensex-2.jpg" alt="The Indian equity market ended lower for the second consecutive week amid volatility led by continued outflow of FII and depreciation in rupee amid delay in potential India-US trade deal." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian equity market ended lower for the second consecutive week amid volatility led by the continued outflow of FII and depreciation in the rupee amid the delay in the India-US trade deal.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734902" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220055129_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="BSE Sensex index fell 338.3 points or 0.39 percent at 84,929.36, while Nifty50 index shed 80.55 points or 0.30 percent at 25,966.40." width="1280" height="720" /> BSE Sensex index fell 338.3 points or 0.39 percent at 84,929.36, while Nifty50 index shed 80.55 points or 0.30 percent at 25,966.40.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734933" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220063946_sensex_stocks_nifty.jpg" alt="The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal losses. Indian Overseas Bank, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Siemens Energy India, Axis Bank, Adani Total Gas, Cummins India, JSW Steel, Eternal fell between 4-8 percent, while gainers included Vedanta, Shriram Finance, Interglobe Aviation, Hindustan Zinc, Britannia Industries." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal losses. Indian Overseas Bank, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Siemens Energy India, Axis Bank, Adani Total Gas, Cummins India, JSW Steel, and Eternal fell between 4-8 percent, while gainers included Vedanta, Shriram Finance, Interglobe Aviation, Hindustan Zinc, and Britannia Industries.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734935" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064037_market_stocks_sensex_Nifty.jpg" alt="BSE Mid-cap Index ended on flat note. New India Assurance Company, Ola Electric Mobility, JK Cement, Hitachi Energy India, Punjab and Sind Bank, Steel Authority of India, General Insurance Corporation of India, GE Vernova TD India fell between 4-9 percent. However, Deepak Nitrite, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Tata Elxsi, Bharti Hexacom, Ashok Leyland, KEI Industries added 5-9 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> BSE Mid-cap Index ended on a flat note. New India Assurance Company, Ola Electric Mobility, JK Cement, Hitachi Energy India, Punjab and Sind Bank, Steel Authority of India, General Insurance Corporation of India, GE Vernova TD India fell between 4-9 percent. However, Deepak Nitrite, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Tata Elxsi, Bharti Hexacom, Ashok Leyland, and KEI Industries added 5-9 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734938" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064108_stocks5.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, DCX Systems added more than 15 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, and Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, and DCX Systems added more than 15 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734940" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064255_Sensex_nifty_market_flat.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, DCX Systems added more than 15 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index ended flat. Kothari Industrial Corporation, Wonder Electricals, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Vishnu Prakash R Punglia, Kamdhenu, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Akzo Nobel India, Gallantt Ispat shed between 12-22 percent. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure, Roto Pumps, LLOYDS ENTERPRISES, Bliss GVS Pharma, Gandhar Oil Refinery India, Rain Industries, Antony Waste Handling Cell, and DCX Systems added more than 15 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734941" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064326_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="Among sectors, Nifty Private Bank and Media indices lost 1 percent each, Nifty Auto, Nifty India Defence and Nifty Bank shed 0.5% each. However, Nifty PSU Bank, and IT indices added 1% each, while Nifty FMCG and Nifty Consumer Durables rose 0.5% each." width="1280" height="720" /> Among sectors, Nifty Private Bank and Media indices lost 1 percent each, Nifty Auto, Nifty India Defence, and Nifty Bank shed 0.5% each. However, Nifty PSU Bank and IT indices added 1% each, while Nifty FMCG and Nifty Consumer Durables rose 0.5% each.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734942" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064355_market_up_higher.jpg" alt="During the week, HDFC Bank lost the most in terms of market value, followed by Axis Bank, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Eternal. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, State Bank of India, added the most of their market-cap. " width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, HDFC Bank lost the most in terms of market value, followed by Axis Bank, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, and Eternal. On the other hand, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and State Bank of India added the most of their market-cap.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734943" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064420_market1.jpg" alt="The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for last three consecutive session of the week, but they remained net sellers for the week as they sold equities of only Rs 251.86 crore as compared to last week's selling of Rs 9,201.89 crore. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in this week also as they bought equities worth Rs 12,061.92 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers for the last three consecutive sessions of the week, but they remained net sellers for the week as they sold equities of only Rs 251.86 crore, as compared to last week's selling of Rs 9,201.89 crore. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying this week, also as they bought equities worth Rs 12,061.92 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13734944" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251220064449_rupee_dollar.jpg" alt="During the week the Indian rupee has touched record low of 91.08 but made strong rebound from the lows and ended higher by 77 paise at 89.65 on December 19 against December 12 closing of 90.42. During the week, the Indian rupee traded between 89.64-91.08." width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, the Indian rupee has touched a record low of 91.08 but made a strong rebound from the lows and ended higher by 77 paise at 89.65 on December 19 against the December 12 closing of 90.42. During the week, the Indian rupee traded between 89.64 and 91.08.

Sonal Minhas, founder at Prescient Capital, believes that this is a good time for investors to enter Indian equities as he sees mid teen returns for CY26.

According to him, Q3 and Q4 earnings growth will be better than Q2 growth and the overall earnings growth for FY26 for the companies could be in the range of 12-15%.

The sectors that had dampened the earnings growth for the previous 6 quarters namely IT, banking and consumption have demonstrated better numbers than Q2 FY26 and have a strong growth/revival outlook for the balance of the year, he believes.

After six quarters of poor earnings growth, do you expect earnings to grow 18–20 percent in 2026?

If you refer to the 5-year chart below, breakout moments in Nifty 500 earnings growth happened from April 2021-22 and then from June 2023-24. The subsequent rally in the markets is a derivative of this earnings growth. If we now see the period from April 2024-25, the earnings growth for Nifty 500 companies hasn’t been material. This led to time and absolute correction in the markets. The period post June 2025-till now has shown signs of an earnings revival. The median earnings growth of Nifty 500 companies was at 12.2% for Q2 FY 26. This was higher than the Q1 growth for the same set of companies.

We believe that Q3 and Q4 earnings growth will be better than Q2 growth and the overall earnings growth for FY26 for the companies could be in the range of 12-15%. The sectors that had dampened the earnings growth for the previous 6 quarters namely IT, Banking and Consumption have demonstrated better numbers than Q2 FY26 and have a strong growth/revival outlook for the balance of the year.

The markets, however, have remained range-bound due to macro economic events like tariff wars and Operation Sindoor. We believe that this is a good time for investors to enter Indian equities as we see mid teen returns for CY26.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13734749 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251219195939_Image120122025.jpg" alt="Image120122025" width="621" height="419" />
Source: Trendlyne.com, We find NIFTY 500 companies a better representation of the underlying economy than NIFTY 50.

If yes, which sectors are likely to drive the earnings recovery next year?

The following sectors have a strong earnings growth outlook per us:

Auto &amp; auto ancillaries

Autos is one sector that will do very well in the coming year. The GST rate cuts have boosted growth for the Indian auto industry. More importantly, several auto ancillaries should grow much faster than underlying auto industry growth due to: a.) premiumization of vehicles increasing content per vehicle (CPV). b.) several ancillaries pursuing substitution of imported components from China and other countries, especially in the EV space.

Chemicals

We believe that the chemicals space has good prospects. Many chemicals like agrochemical intermediates, dyes &amp; pigments, performance chemicals, etc have faced tremendous pricing pressures over the last 4-5 years due to incessant dumping by Chinese players both in India and international markets. Now there are signs of cyclical turnaround with demand revival and chemical prices bottoming out.

Banking

For the last 18 months, we saw the shortage of retail savings/deposits curb the lending growth of Banks/NBFCs. Additionally, RBI deliberately curbed the hyper growth in personal and micro credit to prevent a bad credit cycle. These two drivers slowed down the pace of lending and also impacted returns in the capital market returns of Banks/NBFCs.

We believe that the worst is behind us. A 75 bps repo rate cut and a benign inflation estimate of 2-2.5%, makes the base case for a prolonged benign lending rate cycle. We believe that high quality banks/NBFCs with MSME, personal and corporate credit exposure should grow well from hereon.

Are EMS companies attractively valued now after the recent correction?

EMS companies are down by 30-50% from their 52-week high while their TTM (trailing twelve months) sales have grown at &gt;30%. Despite this high sales growth the equity returns of EMS companies have been negative due to multiple factors.

First and foremost, very few EMS companies are capital efficient i.e. their return on equity is below 15%. Markets were valuing these businesses on their topline growth only and had turned a blind eye to the capital efficiency of these businesses. As a result, when growth started tapering, it was difficult to justify expensive valuations of these low-quality companies.

Secondly, EMS companies to chase growth had/have entered lower margins segments, whose return profile is not that attractive. This has again led to a reckoning that one can’t value a business based only on sales tailwind. We have looked at the EMS space and find it expensive in terms of valuation.

Which three sectors are expected to perform strongly next year and should be included in a portfolio?

In addition to the 3 sectors mentioned above, we think the below three sectors should be included in the portfolio:

Power Equipment

A niche industry we like is power equipment, especially power transmission. There are several small cap companies in the power transmission and generation space that are witnessing multi-year tailwinds due to huge transmission capex as well as data center build up in domestic as well as international markets.

Several small cap companies in sectors like transformers, wires &amp; cables, generators, transmission EPC, etc with all-time high order books and strong growth prospects are available at attractive valuations.

Logistics

We believe that logistics is a good sector for investment for the next 2 years. The whole logistics sector is coming out of a cyclical slowdown, which was caused by a slowdown in e-commerce and auto demand. Listed logistics companies had corrected by 20-40% from their peak valuations. In the last 1 year, the 3 e-commerce logistics players have seen consolidation/M&amp;A and as a result irrational pricing and competition for market share has also stopped.

This has improved the unit economics of e-commerce logistics companies. On the side, a cut in GST rates has provided a fillip to the demand for auto, a large end user of logistics. We believe good growth in demand for 2W/4W will also lead to a good demand visibility for their logistics partners.

Microfinance

The MFI industry is coming out of a cyclical downturn caused by lenient lending norms post COVID. These relaxed norms led to excessive leverage for the same set of target customers. These customers borrowed at high interest rates from 4-6 lenders without having the cash flows for repayment. As a result, they rotated loans from one lending to the other.

Around September 2024, RBI and MFIN (the self-regulatory industry body) refined guidelines for tightening MFI lending to customers and capped the total amount and the number of borrowers a customer could borrow from. This deteriorated the asset quality of loans in the short term, and the Microfinance stocks saw a correction of ~33-50% from their peak.

The best in class lenders have tightened their lending processes since September 2024 and are back to demonstrating growth in their loan book. It is expected that MFI companies and their stocks will demonstrate good growth in H2 FY 26.

Do you think India is likely to see a boom in discretionary consumption from next year onward?

Discretionary consumption in pockets has shown green shoots of revival in growth in Q2 FY 26. Paints companies have shown a demand rival and have indicated a good outlook for balance of the year. Wellness products too have shown a decent demand.

Labour and logistics stoppages around Operation Sindoor during Q1 and the revised GST rollout in Q2, however dampened the demand for a lot of discretionary categories in H1 FY 26. We believe that the impact of savings from higher tax slabs, lower GST rates and lower lending rates will start trickling down to demand by Q4 FY 26.

Do you think the trade deal and the lack of an AI theme are the two major reasons for the continuation of FII outflows?

Yes. AI driven growth in earnings has fuelled a rally in capital markets in USA, China, Korea. India on the other hand, was expensive in valuation and saw a flat earnings growth for a prolonged 15-18-month period. This and monetary tightening by RBI led to one of the largest FII outflows in the recent history of markets in India. So far FIIs have sold ~$18.5 billion in 2025.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Good time for investors to enter Indian equities, Sonal Minhas sees mid-teen returns for 2026

Sonal Minhas, founder at Prescient Capital, believes that this is a good time for investors to enter Indian equities as he sees mid teen returns for CY26.

According to him, Q3 and Q4 earnings growth will be better than Q2 growth and the overall earnings growth for FY26 for the companies could be in the range of 12-15%.

The sectors that had dampened the earnings growth for the previous 6 quarters namely IT, banking and consumption have demonstrated better numbers than Q2 FY26 and have a strong growth/revival outlook for the balance of the year, he believes.

After six quarters of poor earnings growth, do you expect earnings to grow 18–20 percent in 2026?

If you refer to the 5-year chart below, breakout moments in Nifty 500 earnings growth happened from April 2021-22 and then from June 2023-24. The subsequent rally in the markets is a derivative of this earnings growth. If we now see the period from April 2024-25, the earnings growth for Nifty 500 companies hasn’t been material. This led to time and absolute correction in the markets. The period post June 2025-till now has shown signs of an earnings revival. The median earnings growth of Nifty 500 companies was at 12.2% for Q2 FY 26. This was higher than the Q1 growth for the same set of companies.

We believe that Q3 and Q4 earnings growth will be better than Q2 growth and the overall earnings growth for FY26 for the companies could be in the range of 12-15%. The sectors that had dampened the earnings growth for the previous 6 quarters namely IT, Banking and Consumption have demonstrated better numbers than Q2 FY26 and have a strong growth/revival outlook for the balance of the year.

The markets, however, have remained range-bound due to macro economic events like tariff wars and Operation Sindoor. We believe that this is a good time for investors to enter Indian equities as we see mid teen returns for CY26.


Source: Trendlyne.com, We find NIFTY 500 companies a better representation of the underlying economy than NIFTY 50.

If yes, which sectors are likely to drive the earnings recovery next year?

The following sectors have a strong earnings growth outlook per us:

Auto &amp;amp; auto ancillaries

Autos is one sector that will do very well in the coming year. The GST rate cuts have boosted growth for the Indian auto industry. More importantly, several auto ancillaries should grow much faster than underlying auto industry growth due to: a.) premiumization of vehicles increasing content per vehicle (CPV). b.) several ancillaries pursuing substitution of imported components from China and other countries, especially in the EV space.

Chemicals

We believe that the chemicals space has good prospects. Many chemicals like agrochemical intermediates, dyes &amp;amp; pigments, performance chemicals, etc have faced tremendous pricing pressures over the last 4-5 years due to incessant dumping by Chinese players both in India and international markets. Now there are signs of cyclical turnaround with demand revival and chemical prices bottoming out.

Banking

For the last 18 months, we saw the shortage of retail savings/deposits curb the lending growth of Banks/NBFCs. Additionally, RBI deliberately curbed the hyper growth in personal and micro credit to prevent a bad credit cycle. These two drivers slowed down the pace of lending and also impacted returns in the capital market returns of Banks/NBFCs.

We believe that the worst is behind us. A 75 bps repo rate cut and a benign inflation estimate of 2-2.5%, makes the base case for a prolonged benign lending rate cycle. We believe that high quality banks/NBFCs with MSME, personal and corporate credit exposure should grow well from hereon.

Are EMS companies attractively valued now after the recent correction?

EMS companies are down by 30-50% from their 52-week high while their TTM (trailing twelve months) sales have grown at &amp;gt;30%. Despite this high sales growth the equity returns of EMS companies have been negative due to multiple factors.

First and foremost, very few EMS companies are capital efficient i.e. their return on equity is below 15%. Markets were valuing these businesses on their topline growth only and had turned a blind eye to the capital efficiency of these businesses. As a result, when growth started tapering, it was difficult to justify expensive valuations of these low-quality companies.

Secondly, EMS companies to chase growth had/have entered lower margins segments, whose return profile is not that attractive. This has again led to a reckoning that one can’t value a business based only on sales tailwind. We have looked at the EMS space and find it expensive in terms of valuation.

Which three sectors are expected to perform strongly next year and should be included in a portfolio?

In addition to the 3 sectors mentioned above, we think the below three sectors should be included in the portfolio:

Power Equipment

A niche industry we like is power equipment, especially power transmission. There are several small cap companies in the power transmission and generation space that are witnessing multi-year tailwinds due to huge transmission capex as well as data center build up in domestic as well as international markets.

Several small cap companies in sectors like transformers, wires &amp;amp; cables, generators, transmission EPC, etc with all-time high order books and strong growth prospects are available at attractive valuations.

Logistics

We believe that logistics is a good sector for investment for the next 2 years. The whole logistics sector is coming out of a cyclical slowdown, which was caused by a slowdown in e-commerce and auto demand. Listed logistics companies had corrected by 20-40% from their peak valuations. In the last 1 year, the 3 e-commerce logistics players have seen consolidation/M&amp;amp;A and as a result irrational pricing and competition for market share has also stopped.

This has improved the unit economics of e-commerce logistics companies. On the side, a cut in GST rates has provided a fillip to the demand for auto, a large end user of logistics. We believe good growth in demand for 2W/4W will also lead to a good demand visibility for their logistics partners.

Microfinance

The MFI industry is coming out of a cyclical downturn caused by lenient lending norms post COVID. These relaxed norms led to excessive leverage for the same set of target customers. These customers borrowed at high interest rates from 4-6 lenders without having the cash flows for repayment. As a result, they rotated loans from one lending to the other.

Around September 2024, RBI and MFIN (the self-regulatory industry body) refined guidelines for tightening MFI lending to customers and capped the total amount and the number of borrowers a customer could borrow from. This deteriorated the asset quality of loans in the short term, and the Microfinance stocks saw a correction of ~33-50% from their peak.

The best in class lenders have tightened their lending processes since September 2024 and are back to demonstrating growth in their loan book. It is expected that MFI companies and their stocks will demonstrate good growth in H2 FY 26.

Do you think India is likely to see a boom in discretionary consumption from next year onward?

Discretionary consumption in pockets has shown green shoots of revival in growth in Q2 FY 26. Paints companies have shown a demand rival and have indicated a good outlook for balance of the year. Wellness products too have shown a decent demand.

Labour and logistics stoppages around Operation Sindoor during Q1 and the revised GST rollout in Q2, however dampened the demand for a lot of discretionary categories in H1 FY 26. We believe that the impact of savings from higher tax slabs, lower GST rates and lower lending rates will start trickling down to demand by Q4 FY 26.

Do you think the trade deal and the lack of an AI theme are the two major reasons for the continuation of FII outflows?

Yes. AI driven growth in earnings has fuelled a rally in capital markets in USA, China, Korea. India on the other hand, was expensive in valuation and saw a flat earnings growth for a prolonged 15-18-month period. This and monetary tightening by RBI led to one of the largest FII outflows in the recent history of markets in India. So far FIIs have sold ~$18.5 billion in 2025.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The Indian benchmark indices snapped four-day losing streak and ended strong with Nifty closing above 25,900 led by buying across the sectors and increased hopes for further rate easing by Federal Reserve going ahead post-soft US inflation data.

At close, the Sensex was up 447.55 points or 0.53 percent at 84,929.36, and the Nifty was up 150.85 points or 0.58 percent at 25,966.40.

The broader indices outperformed the main indices with BSE midcap and smallcap indices rising 1 percent each.

In this week, BSE Sensex and Nifty50 fell 0.3 percent each.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/information-technology/accenture-q1-signals-stable-demand-but-execution-pressure-for-indian-it-firms-13733258.html">Accenture Q1 signals stable demand but execution pressure for Indian IT firms</a>

Biggest Nifty gainers were Shriram Finance, Max Healthcare, Bharat Electronics, Power Grid Corp, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, while losers included HCL Technologies, Adani Enterprises, Hindalco, JSW Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank.

All the sectoral indices ended in the green with auto, pharma, oil &amp; gas, realty, telecom, healthcare rose 0.5-1 percent.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/fiis-dump-financials-it-fmcg-in-early-december-oil-gas-metals-auto-see-buying-13733178.html">FIIs dump financials, IT, FMCG in early December; oil &amp; gas, metals, auto see buying</a>

In stock-specific action, Reliance Industries shares rose 1.4% after its arm picked majority stake in Udhaiyams Agro Foods, Pharma and healthcare stocks jumped after US Senate passed Biosecure Act, Niraj Cement Structurals shares gained 6% on getting order worth Rs 322.27cr, Biocon shares added 1% on EIR from USFDA for US facility, NBCC India shares rose 5% on wining Rs 179 crore order.

Shriram Finance shares rose 4% after Rs 39,600-crore MUFG deal, BLS International shares rose 2% as Delhi HC sets aside govt order debarring company from tenders, Gujarat Ambuja Exports shares added 6.5% on commencing commercial production at Hubli, Karnataka plant.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/icici-prudential-amc-delivers-second-best-returns-among-over-rs-10-000-crore-ipos-of-2025-13733637.html">ICICI Prudential AMC delivers second-best returns among over Rs 10,000-crore IPOs of 2025</a>

More than 170 stocks hit 52-week low, including Sumitomo Chemical, Tejas Networks, AAVAS Financiers, HFCL, SKF India, United Breweries, Afcons Infra, Westlife Food, Sanofi India, Ramkrishna Forging, Page Industries, NCC, SJVN, Patanjali Foods, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%20500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

Nearly 100 stocks hit 52-week high, including Shriram Finance, Laurus Labs, Ashok Leyland, IDFC First Bank, Titan Company, Federal Bank, India Cements, Hindalco Industries, Hindustan Copper, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-high-bse/?indexName=BSE%2520500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

New Listing

ICICI Prudential AMC, an arm of the ICICI Bank, made a strong debut at Rs 2,600 per share on the NSE, with more than 20 percent premium over its initial public offer (IPO) price. The share price ended the session at Rs 2,576.40, up Rs 411.40, or 19.00 percent.

Outlook for December 22

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty has witnessed a breakout from a falling wedge pattern, indicating improving market sentiment. Additionally, the index has reclaimed the 21-day EMA on the daily chart. After finding support near the 50-day EMA, the index recovered towards the 26,000 mark.

Going forward, 26,000 will be a key level to watch; a decisive move above this level could propel the index towards 26,300. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,900, which is likely to act as the first line of defense for the Nifty.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Taking Stock: Market snaps four-day fall; Nifty above 25,900, broader indices shine

The Indian benchmark indices snapped four-day losing streak and ended strong with Nifty closing above 25,900 led by buying across the sectors and increased hopes for further rate easing by Federal Reserve going ahead post-soft US inflation data.

At close, the Sensex was up 447.55 points or 0.53 percent at 84,929.36, and the Nifty was up 150.85 points or 0.58 percent at 25,966.40.

The broader indices outperformed the main indices with BSE midcap and smallcap indices rising 1 percent each.

In this week, BSE Sensex and Nifty50 fell 0.3 percent each.

Also Read: Accenture Q1 signals stable demand but execution pressure for Indian IT firms

Biggest Nifty gainers were Shriram Finance, Max Healthcare, Bharat Electronics, Power Grid Corp, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, while losers included HCL Technologies, Adani Enterprises, Hindalco, JSW Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank.

All the sectoral indices ended in the green with auto, pharma, oil &amp;amp; gas, realty, telecom, healthcare rose 0.5-1 percent.

Also Read: FIIs dump financials, IT, FMCG in early December; oil &amp;amp; gas, metals, auto see buying

In stock-specific action, Reliance Industries shares rose 1.4% after its arm picked majority stake in Udhaiyams Agro Foods, Pharma and healthcare stocks jumped after US Senate passed Biosecure Act, Niraj Cement Structurals shares gained 6% on getting order worth Rs 322.27cr, Biocon shares added 1% on EIR from USFDA for US facility, NBCC India shares rose 5% on wining Rs 179 crore order.

Shriram Finance shares rose 4% after Rs 39,600-crore MUFG deal, BLS International shares rose 2% as Delhi HC sets aside govt order debarring company from tenders, Gujarat Ambuja Exports shares added 6.5% on commencing commercial production at Hubli, Karnataka plant.

Also Read - ICICI Prudential AMC delivers second-best returns among over Rs 10,000-crore IPOs of 2025

More than 170 stocks hit 52-week low, including Sumitomo Chemical, Tejas Networks, AAVAS Financiers, HFCL, SKF India, United Breweries, Afcons Infra, Westlife Food, Sanofi India, Ramkrishna Forging, Page Industries, NCC, SJVN, Patanjali Foods, among others. Click to View More

Nearly 100 stocks hit 52-week high, including Shriram Finance, Laurus Labs, Ashok Leyland, IDFC First Bank, Titan Company, Federal Bank, India Cements, Hindalco Industries, Hindustan Copper, among others. Click to View More

New Listing

ICICI Prudential AMC, an arm of the ICICI Bank, made a strong debut at Rs 2,600 per share on the NSE, with more than 20 percent premium over its initial public offer (IPO) price. The share price ended the session at Rs 2,576.40, up Rs 411.40, or 19.00 percent.

Outlook for December 22

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty has witnessed a breakout from a falling wedge pattern, indicating improving market sentiment. Additionally, the index has reclaimed the 21-day EMA on the daily chart. After finding support near the 50-day EMA, the index recovered towards the 26,000 mark.

Going forward, 26,000 will be a key level to watch; a decisive move above this level could propel the index towards 26,300. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,900, which is likely to act as the first line of defense for the Nifty.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Nifty Knocks At 26,000 As 4-Day Losing Streak Halts; Shriram Fin-MUFG Deal Sealed| Closing Bell Live

9 out of 17 years SENSEX has given positive returns in December.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	85,086.25	85,243.15	85,418.79	84,910.61	84,753.71	84,578.07	84,421.17
Fibonacci	85,037.64	85,116.12	85,243.15	84,910.61	84,783.58	84,705.10	84,578.07
Camarilla	84,959.84	84,990.33	85,020.81	84,910.61	84,898.88	84,868.39	84,837.91

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - SENSEX

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