SENSEX

Sensex and Nifty fell over 1 percent amid West Asia tensions., India VIX jumped 25%, indicating high market volatility., Analysts advise caution and disciplined risk management.

* Sensex and Nifty fell over 1 percent amid West Asia tensions.
* India VIX jumped 25%, indicating high market volatility.
* Analysts advise caution and disciplined risk management.

Sensex and Nifty fell over 1% as rising crude prices and West Asia tensions hurt investor sentiment. India VIX surged 25%, signaling volatility. Analysts advise caution, disciplined risk management, and gradual investment amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

shorts/business/sensex-nifty-crash-1-2-vix-surges-25-where-should-investors-go-long-amid-west-asia-war-here-s-what-analysts-say

* Sensex and Nifty fell over 1 percent amid West Asia tensions.
* India VIX jumped 25%, indicating high market volatility.
* Analysts advise caution and disciplined risk management.

The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined over 1 percent on Monday as a sharp spike in crude oil prices amid escalating tensions in West Asia dampened investor sentiment. Weak global cues and sustained foreign fund outflows added to the pressure.

The Sensex plunged 2,743.46 points or 3.37 percent to 78,543.73 in early trade. It later recovered some losses but still ended 1,048.34 points or 1.29 percent lower at 80,238.85.

The broader Nifty tumbled 575.15 points or 2.28 percent to 24,603.50 during the day. The benchmark later settled 312.95 points or 1.24 percent down at 24,865.70.

The India VIX, which measures market expectations of near-term volatility and is often referred to as the fear gauge, surged over 25 percent to 17.13. A rise in the index indicates heightened uncertainty and expectations of sharper price swings in the market.

Analysts said corrections triggered by geopolitical events are usually sharp but tend to be temporary once clarity emerges.

Prashasta Seth, CEO, Prudent Investment Managers, said heightened geopolitical tensions following recent war-related developments have led to sharp corrections in domestic indices.

"While headlines have amplified uncertainty, history suggests that war-led drawdowns are often sharp but temporary, with markets stabilising once clarity emerges.

"In this environment, the priority is disciplined risk management rather than reactionary decisions. Asset allocation must remain aligned with long-term objectives. If equity exposure has declined due to market underperformance over the past 15 months, investors may consider a calibrated 3–5 percent shift towards equities during the current drawdown," he said.

He added that companies with strong balance sheets, low leverage, resilient cash flows and pricing power are better placed to navigate earnings disruptions and should form a significant part of portfolios.

Seth further said the risk-reward trade-off for smallcaps and microcaps has turned favourable. "Though there may be near-term uncertainty, medium-term returns are likely to be good in this segment. Strong economic performance, rate cuts and liquidity measures by the RBI, along with reform measures by the government, could support earnings recovery in FY27. Smallcaps and microcaps typically perform well in such an environment," he noted.

He also advised adopting a staggered investment approach over the next four to eight weeks instead of attempting to time the market bottom.

Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd, said the near-term bias remains negative as long as geopolitical tensions persist and crude prices stay elevated.

"Volatility is likely to continue and traders should remain cautious. Such geopolitical reactions typically do not last very long unless the situation escalates materially. From a technical perspective, 24,500 is a crucial support level for Nifty. A sustained breakdown below this could trigger further selling pressure. Recovery attempts may face resistance near recent breakdown levels. Investors should avoid aggressive long positions and wait for stability in global cues before rebuilding exposure. Defence stocks may continue to show relative strength," he said.

Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said the sharp decline has pushed the Nifty closer to its swing low around the 24,600 level.

"A decisive break below this could extend the correction towards the 24,400 mark. On the upside, the 25,000–25,250 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle in case of any recovery. Given the heightened volatility and global uncertainty, investors should maintain a cautious stance, keep position sizes light and focus on disciplined risk management," he said.

On Friday, the Sensex had declined 961.42 points or 1.17 percent to settle at 81,287.19. The Nifty fell 317.90 points or 1.25 percent to close at 25,178.65.

Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Holi.

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Sensex, Nifty crash 1.2%, VIX surges 25%: Where should investors go long amid West Asia war? Here's what analysts say

The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined over 1 percent on Monday as a sharp spike in crude oil prices amid escalating tensions in West Asia dampened investor sentiment. Weak global cues and sustained foreign fund outflows added to the pressure.

The Sensex plunged 2,743.46 points or 3.37 percent to 78,543.73 in early trade. It later recovered some losses but still ended 1,048.34 points or 1.29 percent lower at 80,238.85.

The broader Nifty tumbled 575.15 points or 2.28 percent to 24,603.50 during the day. The benchmark later settled 312.95 points or 1.24 percent down at 24,865.70.

The India VIX, which measures market expectations of near-term volatility and is often referred to as the fear gauge, surged over 25 percent to 17.13. A rise in the index indicates heightened uncertainty and expectations of sharper price swings in the market.

Analysts said corrections triggered by geopolitical events are usually sharp but tend to be temporary once clarity emerges.

Prashasta Seth, CEO, Prudent Investment Managers, said heightened geopolitical tensions following recent war-related developments have led to sharp corrections in domestic indices.

&quot;While headlines have amplified uncertainty, history suggests that war-led drawdowns are often sharp but temporary, with markets stabilising once clarity emerges.

&quot;In this environment, the priority is disciplined risk management rather than reactionary decisions. Asset allocation must remain aligned with long-term objectives. If equity exposure has declined due to market underperformance over the past 15 months, investors may consider a calibrated 3–5 percent shift towards equities during the current drawdown,&quot; he said.

He added that companies with strong balance sheets, low leverage, resilient cash flows and pricing power are better placed to navigate earnings disruptions and should form a significant part of portfolios.

Seth further said the risk-reward trade-off for smallcaps and microcaps has turned favourable. &quot;Though there may be near-term uncertainty, medium-term returns are likely to be good in this segment. Strong economic performance, rate cuts and liquidity measures by the RBI, along with reform measures by the government, could support earnings recovery in FY27. Smallcaps and microcaps typically perform well in such an environment,&quot; he noted.

He also advised adopting a staggered investment approach over the next four to eight weeks instead of attempting to time the market bottom.

Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services Ltd, said the near-term bias remains negative as long as geopolitical tensions persist and crude prices stay elevated.

&quot;Volatility is likely to continue and traders should remain cautious. Such geopolitical reactions typically do not last very long unless the situation escalates materially. From a technical perspective, 24,500 is a crucial support level for Nifty. A sustained breakdown below this could trigger further selling pressure. Recovery attempts may face resistance near recent breakdown levels. Investors should avoid aggressive long positions and wait for stability in global cues before rebuilding exposure. Defence stocks may continue to show relative strength,&quot; he said.

Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said the sharp decline has pushed the Nifty closer to its swing low around the 24,600 level.

&quot;A decisive break below this could extend the correction towards the 24,400 mark. On the upside, the 25,000–25,250 zone is likely to act as an immediate hurdle in case of any recovery. Given the heightened volatility and global uncertainty, investors should maintain a cautious stance, keep position sizes light and focus on disciplined risk management,&quot; he said.

On Friday, the Sensex had declined 961.42 points or 1.17 percent to settle at 81,287.19. The Nifty fell 317.90 points or 1.25 percent to close at 25,178.65.

Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday on account of Holi.

Sensex and Nifty fell over 1% amid US-Iran tensions and oil surge, Nifty midcap and smallcap indices dropped 1.5 percent each, Shree Ram Twistex and Clean Max shares fell sharply on debut

* Sensex and Nifty fell over 1% amid US-Iran tensions and oil surge
* Nifty midcap and smallcap indices dropped 1.5 percent each
* Shree Ram Twistex and Clean Max shares fell sharply on debut

Indian equity indices fell 1% on March 2 as US-Iran tensions drove crude prices higher, hurting sentiment. Sensex dropped 1,048 points, Nifty 313 points. Most sectors declined, over 840 stocks hit 52-week lows. Markets will be closed March 3 for Holi.

shorts/business/taking-stock-sensex-sinks-1-048-pts-nifty-below-24-900-on-rising-us-iran-tension

* Sensex and Nifty fell over 1% amid US-Iran tensions and oil surge
* Nifty midcap and smallcap indices dropped 1.5 percent each
* Shree Ram Twistex and Clean Max shares fell sharply on debut

The Indian equity indices fell more than 1% on March 2 amid weak global cues, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, dampening investor sentiment.

Amid rising geopolitical concerns, the indices opened lower, dragging the Nifty near 24,600 in early trade. Although the market witnessed some recovery as the session progressed, it eventually ended in the red, with the Nifty closing below 24,900.

At close, the Sensex was down 1,048.34 points or 1.29 percent at 80,238.85, and the Nifty was down 312.95 points or 1.24 percent at 24,865.70.

The Nifty midcap and smallcap indices fell 1.5 percent each.

Market will remained shut on March 3 (Tuesday) on account of Holi.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/can-indian-markets-repeat-past-march-gains-amid-rising-risks-13846995.html">Can Indian markets repeat past March gains amid rising risks?</a>

Biggest Nifty losers were L&amp;T, Interglobe Aviation, Adani Ports, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Adani Enterprises, while gainers included Bharat Electronics, Sun Pharma, ONGC, Dr Reddy's Labs and Hindalco.

Except metals, all other sectoral indices ended lower with Auto, Consumer Durables, Oil &amp; Gas down 2 percent each.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/manufacturing-activity-surges-to-four-month-high-of-56-9-in-february-as-factory-momentum-strengthens-13847698.html">Manufacturing activity surges to four-month high of 56.9 in February as factory momentum strengthens</a>

More than 840 stocks touched their 52-week low, including Rail Vikas Nigam, Trident, IRB Infra, Adani Total Gas, Ola Electric, Ircon International, Balkrishna Industries, AWL Agri, IRFC, Suzlon Energy, Latent View, AAVAS Financier, Sterling Wilson, Bajaj Housing, Jupiter Wagons, Sagility, UCO Bank, Alkyl Amines, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%20500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/policy-rates-likely-to-stay-same-or-go-lower-rbi-governor-sanjay-malhotra-13847526.html">Policy rates likely to stay same or go lower: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra</a>

New Listing

Shree Ram Twistex shares ended 29 percent lower after making weak market debut today with a discount of 34.61 percent, at Rs 68 per share. The Rs 110-crore issue had a price band of Rs 95-104 per share.

Clean Max shares ended 18.5 percent lower after listed at discount of 8.83 percent at Rs 960 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The Rs 3,100-crore IPO had a price band of Rs 1,000-1,053 per share.

Outlook for March 4

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty opened gap down amid weakness emerging from the Middle East. The index has slipped below the rising trendline on the daily timeframe, indicating increasing pessimism in the market. The RSI remains in a bearish crossover, confirming weak momentum.

The immediate crucial support is placed at 24,600. A decisive breakdown below this level could trigger a deeper correction in the market. On the higher side, resistance is seen at 25,000. Until the Nifty sustains above 25,000, overall sentiment is likely to remain tilted in favor of the bears.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Monday, domestic equity markets opened on a distinctly negative note, with the benchmark Nifty50 witnessing a sharp gap down start as escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran weighed heavily on global sentiment. The index attempted a swift intraday recovery, staging a pullback within the first minute and briefly touching the day’s high of 24,989. However, the rebound lacked follow through, and the index soon resumed its downward trajectory.

Nifty slipped below the low of its opening candle, signalling sustained selling pressure throughout the session. Yet, in the final hour, markets saw another round of short covering that helped trim a portion of the losses. Ultimately, the index settled at 24866, down 1.24%.

Technically, the index found temporary support near the Union Budget low. However, the broader structure remains vulnerable as Nifty continues to trade below key short-term moving averages. The daily RSI falling below the 40 mark further confirms weakening momentum and a tilt towards bearish bias.

Going ahead, the zone of 24730–24700 levels will act as important support for the index. A decisive break down below 24700 may open the doors for a deeper correction, with the next downside level seen near 24550, where intermediate support is placed.

On the upside, the 24950–25000 zone will act as a stiff resistance, as it aligns with the psychological 25000 mark as well as short term supply levels. Any sustained move above 25000 will be essential for the index to regain bullish momentum and attempt a recovery after the recent sell off

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Taking Stock: Sensex sinks 1,048 pts, Nifty below 24,900 on rising US-Iran tensions

The Indian equity indices fell more than 1% on March 2 amid weak global cues, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, dampening investor sentiment.

Amid rising geopolitical concerns, the indices opened lower, dragging the Nifty near 24,600 in early trade. Although the market witnessed some recovery as the session progressed, it eventually ended in the red, with the Nifty closing below 24,900.

At close, the Sensex was down 1,048.34 points or 1.29 percent at 80,238.85, and the Nifty was down 312.95 points or 1.24 percent at 24,865.70.

The Nifty midcap and smallcap indices fell 1.5 percent each.

Market will remained shut on March 3 (Tuesday) on account of Holi.

Also Read - Can Indian markets repeat past March gains amid rising risks?

Biggest Nifty losers were L&amp;amp;T, Interglobe Aviation, Adani Ports, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Adani Enterprises, while gainers included Bharat Electronics, Sun Pharma, ONGC, Dr Reddy's Labs and Hindalco.

Except metals, all other sectoral indices ended lower with Auto, Consumer Durables, Oil &amp;amp; Gas down 2 percent each.

Also Read - Manufacturing activity surges to four-month high of 56.9 in February as factory momentum strengthens

More than 840 stocks touched their 52-week low, including Rail Vikas Nigam, Trident, IRB Infra, Adani Total Gas, Ola Electric, Ircon International, Balkrishna Industries, AWL Agri, IRFC, Suzlon Energy, Latent View, AAVAS Financier, Sterling Wilson, Bajaj Housing, Jupiter Wagons, Sagility, UCO Bank, Alkyl Amines, among others. Click to View More

Also Read - Policy rates likely to stay same or go lower: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra

New Listing

Shree Ram Twistex shares ended 29 percent lower after making weak market debut today with a discount of 34.61 percent, at Rs 68 per share. The Rs 110-crore issue had a price band of Rs 95-104 per share.

Clean Max shares ended 18.5 percent lower after listed at discount of 8.83 percent at Rs 960 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The Rs 3,100-crore IPO had a price band of Rs 1,000-1,053 per share.

Outlook for March 4

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty opened gap down amid weakness emerging from the Middle East. The index has slipped below the rising trendline on the daily timeframe, indicating increasing pessimism in the market. The RSI remains in a bearish crossover, confirming weak momentum.

The immediate crucial support is placed at 24,600. A decisive breakdown below this level could trigger a deeper correction in the market. On the higher side, resistance is seen at 25,000. Until the Nifty sustains above 25,000, overall sentiment is likely to remain tilted in favor of the bears.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Monday, domestic equity markets opened on a distinctly negative note, with the benchmark Nifty50 witnessing a sharp gap down start as escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran weighed heavily on global sentiment. The index attempted a swift intraday recovery, staging a pullback within the first minute and briefly touching the day’s high of 24,989. However, the rebound lacked follow through, and the index soon resumed its downward trajectory.

Nifty slipped below the low of its opening candle, signalling sustained selling pressure throughout the session. Yet, in the final hour, markets saw another round of short covering that helped trim a portion of the losses. Ultimately, the index settled at 24866, down 1.24%.

Technically, the index found temporary support near the Union Budget low. However, the broader structure remains vulnerable as Nifty continues to trade below key short-term moving averages. The daily RSI falling below the 40 mark further confirms weakening momentum and a tilt towards bearish bias.

Going ahead, the zone of 24730–24700 levels will act as important support for the index. A decisive break down below 24700 may open the doors for a deeper correction, with the next downside level seen near 24550, where intermediate support is placed.

On the upside, the 24950–25000 zone will act as a stiff resistance, as it aligns with the psychological 25000 mark as well as short term supply levels. Any sustained move above 25000 will be essential for the index to regain bullish momentum and attempt a recovery after the recent sell off

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Live: Sensex, Nifty drop over 1% amid Iran-US tensions; India VIX soars | Closing Bell

Live: War rhetoric to fuel risk-off trade as Trump signals more Iran action | Opening Bell

Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to open on a negative note today, March 2, following gains in GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower at around 25,232.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The Indian benchmark indices ended lower on February 27, with the Nifty closing below the 25,200 mark amid broad-based selling across sectors, except IT and media. After a weak start, the market remained under pressure throughout the session due to subdued global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which kept investor sentiment cautious.

At close, the Sensex was down 961.42 points or 1.17 percent at 81,287.19, and the Nifty was down 317.90 points or 1.25 percent at 25,178.65. Nifty Midcap and smallcap indices are also down 1% each.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Down)

The GIFT Nifty was trading lower at around 25,232, indicating a lower start.

Asian Equities (Fall)

Asian markets tumbled Monday as the conflict between Iran and U.S.-Israel escalates, following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raising concerns over energy supplies.



US Equities (Down)

Financial and tech stocks were hit hard by a handful of persistent investor worries on Friday, with U.S. stocks suffering their largest monthly percentage declines in a year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 521.28 points, or 1.05%, to 48,977.92, the S&amp;amp;P 500 lost 29.98 points, or 0.43%, to 6,878.88 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 210.17 points, or 0.92%, to 22,668.21.



Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar jumped on Monday as investors headed for safety after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to open a power vacuum and raise the risk of a protracted Mideast war.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The US Treasury 10-year yield and 2-year yield jumped more than 2 basis points to 3.96% and 3.39%, respectively.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Asian currencies were trading lower in early trade on Monday with South Korean Won leading the losers followed by Philippines Peso, Thai Baht, China Renminbi, Indonesian Rupiah, Japanese Yen.



Crude (Jumps)

Oil prices surged on Monday and shares slid as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last weeks, sending investors flocking to the relative safety of the dollar, gold and bonds.



Gold (Rises)

Gold prices rose as much as 2% on Monday after the U.S. and Israel launched major strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, escalating geopolitical tensions and deepening global economic uncertainty.



Fund Flow Action

On February 27, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 7536 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth over ₹12,000 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

12 out of 17 years SENSEX has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	81,969.19	82,651.19	83,056.21	81,564.17	80,882.17	80,477.15	79,795.15
Fibonacci	81,979.41	82,235.95	82,651.19	81,564.17	81,148.93	80,892.39	80,477.15
Camarilla	81,386.83	81,486.48	81,586.12	81,564.17	81,187.55	81,087.90	80,988.26

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