NIFTY SMLCAP 50

Oil War Escalates? Iran Threatens Gulf | Fed Holds Rates | HDFC Bank Shocker

US Fed likely to be on a long pause amid rising inflation and slowing growth, Next Fed move more likely to be a hike than cut, Believe West Asia war to be a long-drawn war between US and Iran

* US Fed likely to be on a long pause amid rising inflation and slowing growth
* Next Fed move more likely to be a hike than cut
* Believe West Asia war to be a long-drawn war between US and Iran

shorts/business/daily-voice-no-fed-rate-cuts-soon-sandeep-bagla-says-next-move-may-be-a-hike-not-a-cut

After the FOMC outcome, TRUST Mutual Fund CEO Sandeep Bagla expects the US Federal Reserve to stay on an extended pause, caught between stubborn inflation and slowing growth, with the next move more likely a rate hike than a cut.

In an interview to Moneycontrol, Bagla also warned that the West Asia conflict could turn into a prolonged US-Iran standoff, weighing on global markets. He sees FY27 as a muted year for equities, as higher oil and metal prices squeeze margins, dent earnings and curb demand, while flagging metals and commodities as a potential contra play.

What is your view on the latest US Federal Reserve policy meeting? Do you rule out further rate cuts in 2026 amid higher-than-expected inflation following tariff hikes and rising oil prices due to the West Asia crisis?

US Federal Reserve is likely to be on a long pause, torn between rising inflation and slowing growth. The next move is more likely to be a hike than cut. The incoming Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is a known balance sheet hawk, who would want to reduce the amount of money floating in the system to ward off potential inflation.

Do you see any possibility of easing of oil price-related concerns, even though tensions between the US and Iran persist?

It appears that it will be a long-drawn war between US and Iran and while there have been countries who are releasing strategic reserves, it is to meet the immediate shortfall requirement and it will lead to sustained demand as these countries are going to replenish and rebuild their strategic reserves in the future. It is possible that we see further Dollar weakness in the future, which could further support oil prices.

Do you expect FY27 to be a strong year for the market, with the potential to deliver around 15 percent returns?

FY27 is likely to be a muted return generator from equity markets perspective as the after-effects of the increase in metals and oil prices are likely to result in margin compression, lower earnings and suppressed demand as well. In the unlikely case of central bankers infusing large amounts of liquidity the risk markets could rally.

However, it is unlikely as inflation fears will keep central bank actions in check. One should keep expectations low as broad markets are unlikely to give a return of 15%. We are going through a phase where markets are consolidating and are likely to reset lower in the midst of geopolitical uncertainty higher inflation and lower economic growth

Are you bullish on the power sector, considering the stronger push for renewable energy, especially after recent oil-related concerns?

We are constructive on the power sector especially in the renewable space. We are also bullish on infrastructure providers like transmission companies power cables there is likely to be incremental demand from data centers so the power sector looks to be in a good space for the next two to three years.

Do you still maintain your FY27 earnings growth expectations despite the recent oil price spike triggered by Middle East tensions?

The FY27 earnings growth estimates would have to be revised downwards. As we go forward and quarterly results come in, earnings are likely to be revised lower. Lower estimates are likely to provide a reality check and provide some amount of headwinds for the equity markets performance.

What is your contra bet for FY27?

We believe there could be a race to accumulate real assets and the beneficiaries could be companies dealing in commodities, metals and precious metals like gold and silver.

So a contra bet would be metals and commodities for 2027. We think there could be significant upside if people lose faith in the Dollar and diversify.

Is this a good opportunity for investors to buy bank stocks that are currently trading at lower valuations?

The banking space seems to be reasonably valued than before and with the credit cost being low and the credit ratio picking up it appears to give a good risk reward ratio in favour of the investors at this point of time. However, we are unlikely to be overweight in the sector if the economy shows signs of slowing down.

Do you expect the RBI to send a cautious signal through its policy in April, especially after the spike in oil prices amid West Asia tensions?

It is a tough time for policy makers. Stagflationary conditions make decision making difficult. Slowing growth is visible and warrants lower rates. Inflation moves higher due to commodity price rise, and appears to be transitory and regulators try to ‘look through’ the rise in inflation and delay monetary tightening to avoid further slowdown. The interest rate swap curve rate hike later this year. It would be prudent for RBI to acknowledge the situation and forewarn the market participants in the RBI policy.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: No Fed rate cuts soon? Sandeep Bagla says next move may be a hike, not a cut

Falling decisively below 23,600–23,500 can bring bears Nifty down to 23,300-23,000, If Bank Nifty falls below 54,700, 54,100 is the level to watch followed by 53,250, Broader structure still appears weak

* Falling decisively below 23,600–23,500 can bring bears Nifty down to 23,300-23,000
* If Bank Nifty falls below 54,700, 54,100 is the level to watch followed by 53,250
* Broader structure still appears weak

shorts/business/trading-plan-will-nifty-50-bank-nifty-decisively-break-three-day-rally-amid-spiking-oil-prices-fears-of-prolonged-fed-pause

The sharp fall in global peers, driven by fears of a prolonged pause in the Fed funds rate—at least into 2026—amid inflation worries, and spiking oil prices due to the escalating West Asia conflict, is likely to weigh on Indian equity markets in the coming sessions. In fact, technical and momentum indicators are also not supportive, even though the market rallied over the last three days due to oversold conditions following the recent sharp decline. According to experts, if the Nifty 50 decisively breaks the 23,600–23,500 zone (Wednesday's low and the golden ratio), bears may regain control and drag the index toward 23,300 followed by the 23,000 (near current week's low). However, the 23,800 level is expected to remain a crucial hurdle. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty is also likely to mirror the benchmark index, as a decisive fall below 54,700 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement) could open the door for a decline toward the 54,100, followed by 53,250 zone (Monday's low).

On March 18, the Nifty 50 gained 197 points (0.83 percent) to close at 23,778, while the Bank Nifty rose 450 points (0.82 percent) to 55,326, supported by positive market breadth. About 2,391 shares advanced compared to 582 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The benchmark index has been witnessing a pullback rally over the last three trading sessions, marking its longest winning streak in nearly a month. This recovery has been largely driven by short covering and value buying at lower levels, allowing the index to retrace a portion of its recent decline.

However, despite the recent recovery, the broader trend remains bearish. The index continues to form a sequence of lower tops and lower bottoms, highlighting sustained selling pressure at higher levels. Additionally, Nifty is still trading below its crucial short- and medium-term moving averages, suggesting that the prevailing structure has not yet shifted in favour of the bulls.

Momentum indicators also suggest caution. The RSI, although it has recovered from the recent low of 24, is yet to reclaim the 40 mark. The DI- remains comfortably above DI+, highlighting continued bearish dominance, while the MACD line is still below both the zero line and the signal line. For the pullback to sustain, Nifty needs to continue moving higher gradually. Any strong reversal candle from current levels could trigger renewed downside pressure.

Going ahead, the 23,630–23,600 range remains an important support zone. Any decisive breakdown below 23,600 may lead to a resumption of the broader downtrend and renewed selling pressure. However, the 23,850–23,900 zone is expected to act as a key resistance band. A sustainable move above 23,900 could extend the pullback rally towards 24,050.

Key Resistance: 23,850, 23,900, 24,050

Key Support: 23,600, 23,300, 23,000

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures only above 23,830, with a stop-loss at 23,650, targeting 24,150.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse

The Nifty index crossed the 23,750 mark on a closing basis. It has retraced 23.6 percent of the entire decline from 26,341 to the recent low, with this level—around 23,750—now achieved. The next key resistance is at 24,250 (38.2 percent retracement), and a sustained move above this level could signal the formation of a short-term bottom.

The RSI, which had slipped into extremely oversold territory below 25, has started to recover, indicating improving momentum. However, the broader trend still reflects a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms. A decisive break above 24,300 is essential to negate the prevailing bearish structure.

On the downside, immediate support is placed at 23,400. Considering the overall technical setup, further momentum is likely only if Nifty breaks above 23,850.

(Spot levels)
Key Resistance: 23,850, 24,200

Key Support: 23,650 23,400, 23,250, 23,000

Strategy: Nifty Futures can be considered on the long side only above 23,850, with a stop-loss near 23,650, targeting 24,200.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index ended the session on a positive note for the third consecutive trading session, extending its ongoing pullback rally. From its recent low of 53,258, the index has recovered by over 2,000 points, largely driven by short covering and selective buying at lower levels.

This rebound has helped ease some downside pressure; however, the broader technical setup remains cautious. Despite the recovery, Bank Nifty continues to trade below its crucial short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating that the primary trend has not yet turned positive and that the index remains in a corrective phase.

Going ahead, the 54,800–54,700 range will serve as an important support zone. Any decisive breach below this area could attract fresh selling pressure and potentially end the current pullback rally. On the upside, the 55,700–55,800 zone is expected to act as an immediate hurdle.

Key Resistance: 55,700, 55,800

Key Support: 54,800, 54,700, 53,900, 53,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures only above 55,450, with a stop-loss at 55,050, targeting 56,250.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse

Bank Nifty showed relative outperformance compared to the Nifty index. The index has recently found strong support near the 53,700 zone, forming a triple-bottom-like structure, which reinforces this level as a crucial support. While there are expectations of a continuation of the short-term pullback, the broader structure still appears weak.

Key Resistance: 56,250, 56,900

Key Support: 54,650, 54,100, 53,250

Strategy: Based on the current technical setup, traders may consider initiating long positions in Bank Nifty Futures only in the 55,200–55,300 range, with a stop-loss below 54,650. A pullback-driven rally towards 56,100 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty decisively break three-day rally amid spiking oil prices, fears of prolonged Fed pause?

If Nifty breaks 23,600, a decline toward 23,500–23,350 likely in coming sessions, Further rally toward 24,000 likely only if Nifty closes above and sustains 23,800 resistance, India VIX slips 5.39% to 18.72, extending downward trend for third straight session

* If Nifty breaks 23,600, a decline toward 23,500–23,350 likely in coming sessions
* Further rally toward 24,000 likely only if Nifty closes above and sustains 23,800 resistance
* India VIX slips 5.39% to 18.72, extending downward trend for third straight session

shorts/business/trade-setup-for-march-19-top-15-things-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-as-hot-inflation-dims-fed-rate-cut-hopes-for-2026-oil-spikes

The Nifty 50 remained in positive territory for the third straight day, rising 0.83 percent on March 18 and gaining 3.5 percent from its recent low. The recovery has been supported by improving momentum after the index hit oversold territory, along with a falling VIX. However, the broader trend still reflects a pattern of lower tops and lower bottoms, with momentum indicators signalling caution. Oil prices spiked after consolidating over the past couple of sessions amid the West Asia conflict, while higher-than-expected inflation data reduced the likelihood of further Fed rate cuts in 2026. Hence, if the index breaks 23,600 (Wednesday's low), a decline toward the 23,500–23,350 zone is possible in the coming sessions. However, a further rally toward 24,000 is likely only if the index closes above and sustains the 23,800 resistance level, according to experts.



Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (23,778)

Resistance based on pivot points: 23,846, 23,903, and 23,997

Support based on pivot points: 23,660, 23,602, and 23,509

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle with a minor upper shadow on the daily charts, signalling a positive bias despite some pressure at higher levels. The index closed above the previous high and held above the golden ratio (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level—just above 23,500) for the second straight session, which is a positive sign. There has been some improvement in momentum indicators, but they still signal caution. The RSI climbed to 37.04 from the recent low of 24.15 but remains below the 40 mark, while the MACD continues to stay below both the reference and zero lines. The index is still trading below all key moving averages, which continue to slope downward. All these factors indicate that, despite the ongoing pullback, the broader trend remains weak and requires further confirmation of strength.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (55,326)

Resistance based on pivot points: 55,520, 55,724, and 56,055

Support based on pivot points: 54,859, 54,655, and 54,325

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 56,473, 57,484

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,727, 53,067

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty rose 0.82 percent and formed a bullish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, indicating a continuation of the pullback despite some volatility for the third straight session. The index remained above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level for another session; however, trading volumes have been declining. Additionally, key moving averages continue to slope downward, with the 20-day EMA on the verge of falling below the 200-day EMA, and the 50-day EMA also close to slipping below the 100-day EMA. The RSI inched up to 35.11 from around 23 but remains below the 40 level, while the MACD is still well below both the signal and zero lines, although histogram weakness has eased further. All these factors indicate that, while the pullback is intact, the broader trend still lacks strong bullish confirmation.



3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the 24,500 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 43.88 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 24,000 strike (43.45 lakh contracts) and 23,800 strike (33.98 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,800 strike, which saw an addition of 17.69 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,700 and 24,500 strikes, which added 16.39 lakh and 14.82 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 23,500 strike, which shed 8.13 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,400 and 23,550 strikes, which shed 3.23 lakh and 2.75 lakh contracts, respectively.



4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike (with 54.98 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,500 strike (47.87 lakh contracts) and the 23,700 strike (36.26 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,700 strike, which saw an addition of 30.45 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,800 and 23,500 strikes, which added 25.75 lakh and 20.9 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Put unwinding seen in the 23,000-24,500 strike band.



5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 56,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 7.7 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 57,000 strike (6.78 lakh contracts) and the 55,000 strike (6.21 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 55,500 strike (with the addition of 75,960 contracts), followed by the 55,400 strike (33,630 contracts) and 56,800 strike (30,150 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 54,500 strike, which shed 51,300 contracts, followed by the 54,000 and 54,900 strikes, which shed 35,220 and 26,850 contracts, respectively.



6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 54,000 strike (with 8.2 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 55,000 strike (7.3 lakh contracts) and the 56,000 strike (4.71 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 55,000 strike (which added 1.84 lakh contracts), followed by the 54,000 (1.61 lakh contracts) and 55,100 (89,280 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 57,000 strike, which shed 19,905 contracts, followed by the 54,700 and 54,300 strikes, which shed 13,530 and 12,690 contracts, respectively.



7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)



8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, jumped to 1.14 on March 18, compared to a 1.09 in previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.



9) India VIX

The India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, slipped 5.39 percent to 18.72, extending its downward trend for the third straight session and signalling increasing comfort for bulls. However, it remains in an elevated zone. Stronger comfort for bulls is likely only if it falls and sustains decisively below the 15–13 levels.



10) Long Build-up (113 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 113 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.



11) Long Unwinding (12 Stocks)

12 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.



12) Short Build-up (15 Stocks)

15 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.



13) Short-Covering (70 Stocks)

70 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.



14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.



15) Stocks Under F&amp;amp;O Ban

Securities banned under the F&amp;amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;amp;O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Trade setup for March 19: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell as hot inflation dims Fed rate cut hopes for 2026, oil spikes

GIFT Nifty fell 1 percent after Iran reported airstrikes., Oil prices rose as Iran's energy facilities were targeted., Domestic markets may open lower amid heightened tensions.

* GIFT Nifty fell 1 percent after Iran reported airstrikes.
* Oil prices rose as Iran's energy facilities were targeted.
* Domestic markets may open lower amid heightened tensions.

GIFT Nifty fell nearly 1% after Iran reported US and Israeli airstrikes on its South Pars gas field, raising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Domestic markets may open lower Thursday, following three days of gains, as Iran vows retaliation.

shorts/business/gift-nifty-declines-0-5-as-iran-claims-airstrikes-on-its-giant-south-pars-natural-gas-field

GIFT Nifty declined nearly 1 percent on Wednesday evening after Iran said US and Israeli airstrikes had hit its South Pars gas field and nearby infrastructure, according to state television. It said oil and petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh were also targeted.

At around 22:52 pm, GIFT Nifty was trading below the 23,500 level at 23,460, down 1.43 percent or 340 points.

An attack, if confirmed, would mark the first instance of Iran’s upstream oil and gas facilities being targeted in the ongoing conflict. Oil prices rose after Iran reported that some of its energy facilities had come under attack.

Trump further suggested that countries relying on Strait of Hormuz should secure the route after US 'finishes off' Iran.

Brent crude was trading near USD 105 per barrel, up nearly 2 percent. Earlier, the global oil benchmark had dipped 0.10 percent to USD 103.3 per barrel.

The domestic markets are likely to open lower on Thursday on cues from Gift Nifty after three consecutive sessions of gains, as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Iran has vowed retaliation following attacks that led to the death of its security chief Ali Larijani, while US President Donald Trump said the conflict could end soon.

Gulf nations continue to explore alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has slowed sharply. Iraq is set to resume exports through a pipeline linking the Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, though the route can handle only a limited share of its output.

On Wednesday, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled nearly 1 percent higher, extending gains for a third straight session, supported by a marginal decline in crude oil prices and firm global cues.

The Sensex rose 633.29 points, or 0.83 percent to close at 76,704.13. During the day, it climbed 929.38 points, or 1.22 percent to 77,000.22. The Nifty advanced 196.65 points, or 0.83 percent to settle at 23,777.80.

Wall Street futures turned red, after trading flat, indicating a subdued start for the US markets.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

GIFT Nifty down 1.4% as Iran claims airstrikes on its giant South Pars natural gas field

4 out of 7 years NIFTY SMLCAP 50 has given negative returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	7,996.12	8,051.48	8,130.47	7,917.13	7,861.77	7,782.78	7,727.42
Fibonacci	7,968.46	8,000.16	8,051.48	7,917.13	7,865.81	7,834.11	7,782.78
Camarilla	7,953.07	7,965.38	7,977.70	7,917.13	7,928.43	7,916.12	7,903.80

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