NIFTY PSU Bank

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were trading in the red in early trade on December 15, snapping a two-session gaining streak amid broad-based selling. This came as falling rupee, weak global cues and various other factors dampened investor sentiment.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/SENSEX-4.html">Sensex</a> fell more than 320 points (around 0.4 percent) to 84,944, while <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html">Nifty 50</a> fell around 112 points (0.4 percent) to 25,935, as seen at 9.50 am.

Barring the Nifty Media index, all other sectoral indices were lower and the Nifty Auto, the Nifty Realty and the Nifty Oil &amp; Gas index fell around 1% each. Among the Nifty Media's constituents, shares of PVR INOX, DB Corp., and Sun TV Network rose 2-4%. Automobile companies were hit hard in early trade, with shares of Mahindra &amp; Mahindra and Eicher Motors falling 1.5% each. Among the Nifty 200 constituents, shares of Hyundai Motors fell over 2%.

Here are some of the key factors behind the downturn in the markets today:
<h3><strong>Falling rupee:</strong></h3>
Rupee hit a <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/currency/rupee-weakens-to-record-low-on-us-trade-deal-limbo-persistent-outflows-13724959.html">fresh record low</a> on Monday, sliding down to 90.6 against the US dollar. This marks the third consecutive session when the Indian currency hit a fresh low. India and US not reaching a trade deal yet, weak capital flows and more have led to the fall in rupee.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the markets are likely to remain sensitive to rupee stability, FII flow trends, and clarity on trade agreements, alongside global cues from the central banks' meetings.

"A major drag on the market continues to be the elusive US-India trade deal which is impacting India's exports to the U.S., widening of trade deficit and continuous depreciation in the rupee," said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments.
<h3><strong>Persistent FII outflows:</strong></h3>
Indian markets have continued to see strong foreign outflows. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers on Friday, selling equities worth Rs 10,719.95 crore, as against purchases worth Rs 10,323.69 crore, according to NSE.

Although FIIs remained net sellers, domestic investors remained net buyers in the market. “The negative opening is largely driven by renewed selling pressure in global markets, persistent foreign institutional outflows, and continued rupee weakness against the US dollar. While domestic fundamentals remain stable, near-term sentiment appears fragile, suggesting a defensive start to the session,” said Choice Broking.
<h3><strong>Weak global cues:</strong></h3>
Global markets ended the session on a negative note on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6 percent, extending the recent tech-led pullback. The S&amp;P 500 fell about 1 percent, a day after touching record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5 percent.

Japan's central bank is likely to increase its interest rates this week as big Japanese manufacturers' business sentiment hit a four-year high in the three months to December. "All in all, the tankan backs up dominant market views the BOJ will raise rates in December. Unless a huge shock hits the economy or markets, it is likely to proceed with a hike," Reuters quoted Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, as saying.

As a result of the rising expectations of a rate hike by Bank of Japan, Nikkei 225 fell around 800 points (nearly 1.6 percent) on Monday morning.

Weakness on Wall Street and across Asia has weighed on early sentiment, as investors reassess stretched valuations in technology stocks. "Global signals remain mixed, keeping early sentiment subdued, yet low volatility and improving risk appetite may help the index find its footing quickly. As trading unfolds, gradual buying interest is expected to emerge in key cyclicals such as metals, capital goods, and select financials, potentially lending support to the broader market. Intraday dips are likely to attract buyers, especially if heavyweight stocks maintain momentum," said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

China and Hong Kong stocks slipped on Monday as a slew of lacklustre economic data and mounting default risks by property developer Vanke weighed on market sentiment.

New home prices extended declines last month, China's factory output and retail sales grew at their weakest pace in over a year, and new bank loans rose less than expected.
<h3><strong>What should investors do?</strong></h3>
Given the current setup, traders should adopt a cautious buy-on-dips approach strictly near support levels, with tight stop-losses, said Choice Broking. “Aggressive long positions should be avoided until key resistance levels are decisively breached, while partial profit booking on pullbacks remains prudent in this range-bound and volatile environment,” it added.

On the technical front, Sensex faces immediate resistance at 85,700–85,800, a zone that could cap early upside attempts, Shah said, adding that support around 84,700–84,800 may provide a cushion in case of pullbacks. "Overall, the Sensex is anticipated to deliver a constructive, upward-tilted session, with resilience and sectoral rotation favouring a continuation of its short-term positive trend despite lingering macro uncertainties," he said.

Follow all <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-weak-start-us-asian-markets-fall-liveblog-13724743.html">LIVE updates</a> from the stock markets here.

<em>With inputs from Reuters</em>

<em>Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.</em>

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Sensex falls 300 pts, Nifty below 25,950: Weak global cues among key factors behind market decline

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were trading in the red in early trade on December 15, snapping a two-session gaining streak amid broad-based selling. This came as falling rupee, weak global cues and various other factors dampened investor sentiment.

Sensex fell more than 320 points (around 0.4 percent) to 84,944, while Nifty 50 fell around 112 points (0.4 percent) to 25,935, as seen at 9.50 am.

Barring the Nifty Media index, all other sectoral indices were lower and the Nifty Auto, the Nifty Realty and the Nifty Oil &amp;amp; Gas index fell around 1% each. Among the Nifty Media's constituents, shares of PVR INOX, DB Corp., and Sun TV Network rose 2-4%. Automobile companies were hit hard in early trade, with shares of Mahindra &amp;amp; Mahindra and Eicher Motors falling 1.5% each. Among the Nifty 200 constituents, shares of Hyundai Motors fell over 2%.

Here are some of the key factors behind the downturn in the markets today:
Falling rupee:
Rupee hit a fresh record low on Monday, sliding down to 90.6 against the US dollar. This marks the third consecutive session when the Indian currency hit a fresh low. India and US not reaching a trade deal yet, weak capital flows and more have led to the fall in rupee.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the markets are likely to remain sensitive to rupee stability, FII flow trends, and clarity on trade agreements, alongside global cues from the central banks' meetings.

&quot;A major drag on the market continues to be the elusive US-India trade deal which is impacting India's exports to the U.S., widening of trade deficit and continuous depreciation in the rupee,&quot; said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments.
Persistent FII outflows:
Indian markets have continued to see strong foreign outflows. Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers on Friday, selling equities worth Rs 10,719.95 crore, as against purchases worth Rs 10,323.69 crore, according to NSE.

Although FIIs remained net sellers, domestic investors remained net buyers in the market. “The negative opening is largely driven by renewed selling pressure in global markets, persistent foreign institutional outflows, and continued rupee weakness against the US dollar. While domestic fundamentals remain stable, near-term sentiment appears fragile, suggesting a defensive start to the session,” said Choice Broking.
Weak global cues:
Global markets ended the session on a negative note on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6 percent, extending the recent tech-led pullback. The S&amp;amp;P 500 fell about 1 percent, a day after touching record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5 percent.

Japan's central bank is likely to increase its interest rates this week as big Japanese manufacturers' business sentiment hit a four-year high in the three months to December. &quot;All in all, the tankan backs up dominant market views the BOJ will raise rates in December. Unless a huge shock hits the economy or markets, it is likely to proceed with a hike,&quot; Reuters quoted Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus, as saying.

As a result of the rising expectations of a rate hike by Bank of Japan, Nikkei 225 fell around 800 points (nearly 1.6 percent) on Monday morning.

Weakness on Wall Street and across Asia has weighed on early sentiment, as investors reassess stretched valuations in technology stocks. &quot;Global signals remain mixed, keeping early sentiment subdued, yet low volatility and improving risk appetite may help the index find its footing quickly. As trading unfolds, gradual buying interest is expected to emerge in key cyclicals such as metals, capital goods, and select financials, potentially lending support to the broader market. Intraday dips are likely to attract buyers, especially if heavyweight stocks maintain momentum,&quot; said Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

China and Hong Kong stocks slipped on Monday as a slew of lacklustre economic data and mounting default risks by property developer Vanke weighed on market sentiment.

New home prices extended declines last month, China's factory output and retail sales grew at their weakest pace in over a year, and new bank loans rose less than expected.
What should investors do?
Given the current setup, traders should adopt a cautious buy-on-dips approach strictly near support levels, with tight stop-losses, said Choice Broking. “Aggressive long positions should be avoided until key resistance levels are decisively breached, while partial profit booking on pullbacks remains prudent in this range-bound and volatile environment,” it added.

On the technical front, Sensex faces immediate resistance at 85,700–85,800, a zone that could cap early upside attempts, Shah said, adding that support around 84,700–84,800 may provide a cushion in case of pullbacks. &quot;Overall, the Sensex is anticipated to deliver a constructive, upward-tilted session, with resilience and sectoral rotation favouring a continuation of its short-term positive trend despite lingering macro uncertainties,&quot; he said.

Follow all LIVE updates from the stock markets here.

With inputs from Reuters

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Can Nifty Extend Its Upmove After Back-To Back Gains? Insurance Stocks In Focus| Opening Bell Live

Indian equities are set to open the December 15 session on a cautious note, taking cues from a broad sell off across global markets. Weakness on Wall Street and across Asia has weighed on early sentiment, as investors reassess stretched valuations in technology stocks. That said, market participants believe the downside could be limited, with signs of rotation emerging from broader markets into large cap stocks.

Early indicators pointed to a soft start. At 7.50 am, GIFT Nifty was trading at 26,057, down 82 points or 0.3 percent, signalling a likely negative opening for domestic benchmarks.
<h1>Global markets in focus</h1>
Overnight, US markets closed sharply lower, led by losses in technology heavy stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6 percent, extending the recent tech led pullback. The S and P 500 slipped about 1 percent, a day after touching record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5 percent, reflecting its lower exposure to technology names.

Investor risk appetite has moderated amid growing scepticism over whether technology stocks can continue to justify elevated valuations and aggressive spending on artificial intelligence. This has also weighed on Asian markets, which have been strong outperformers this year but remain heavily exposed to the global technology supply chain.

Asian equities opened lower in the final full trading week of 2025, as concerns over earnings visibility for technology companies and their AI related capital expenditure dampened sentiment across the region.
<h1>Spotlight on ICICI Pru AMC</h1>
Back home, investor attention will be on the ICICI Prudential AMC IPO, which enters its second day of subscription today. The issue is expected to see healthy demand, given the fund house’s wide product offering across equity, debt, hybrid, passive and thematic strategies, with a total of 143 schemes.
<h1>Rupee weakness a worry</h1>
The rupee will also remain in focus after extending its decline to 90.55 against the US dollar, slipping past its previous all time low of 90.47. Analysts warn that sustained weakness in the currency could add pressure on the current account deficit and dampen foreign capital inflows into Indian equities.
<h1>Trump to pick Fed chair</h1>
On the global policy front, comments from US President Donald Trump late on Friday drew attention. Trump said Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair when his term ends in May, while adding that Kevin Warsh is also under consideration. The appointment is being closely watched for its implications on monetary policy next year.
<h1>Institutional activity and outlook</h1>
In the previous session, foreign institutional investors sold Indian equities worth Rs 1,114 crore, while domestic institutional investors stepped in as buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 3,869 crore, exchange data showed.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said it would be difficult for FIIs to sustain heavy selling and maintain large short positions, especially in the backdrop of strong SIP inflows and improving earnings prospects. He noted that persistent selling when India’s growth outlook remains healthy is unlikely to be a sustainable strategy and could eventually lend support to the market.

He added that factors such as rupee depreciation, continued FII selling, delays in the US India trade deal and the ongoing AI trade dynamics are temporary headwinds and should ease over time.
<h1>Technical outlook</h1>
Nifty staged a notable recovery toward the end of the week, establishing a firm demand zone; however, the broader trend remains delicate as the index continues to form lower highs, indicating persistent supply pressure around 26,200. The 26,000–25,900 band emerges as a crucial support area, having previously acted as a strong resistance zone.

"A significant open interest accumulation of nearly 1.19 crore call contracts at the 26,500 strike positions this level as a major overhead resistance. Conversely, about 1.36 crore put contracts at the 26,000 strike confirm a robust support base," said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-weak-start-us-asian-markets-fall-liveblog-13724743.html">Follow our market blog to catch all the live updates</a>

<em><strong>Disclaimer:</strong> The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.</em>

Nifty, Sensex eye cautious start as global tech sell off weighs on sentiment

Indian equities are set to open the December 15 session on a cautious note, taking cues from a broad sell off across global markets. Weakness on Wall Street and across Asia has weighed on early sentiment, as investors reassess stretched valuations in technology stocks. That said, market participants believe the downside could be limited, with signs of rotation emerging from broader markets into large cap stocks.

Early indicators pointed to a soft start. At 7.50 am, GIFT Nifty was trading at 26,057, down 82 points or 0.3 percent, signalling a likely negative opening for domestic benchmarks.
Global markets in focus
Overnight, US markets closed sharply lower, led by losses in technology heavy stocks. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6 percent, extending the recent tech led pullback. The S and P 500 slipped about 1 percent, a day after touching record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5 percent, reflecting its lower exposure to technology names.

Investor risk appetite has moderated amid growing scepticism over whether technology stocks can continue to justify elevated valuations and aggressive spending on artificial intelligence. This has also weighed on Asian markets, which have been strong outperformers this year but remain heavily exposed to the global technology supply chain.

Asian equities opened lower in the final full trading week of 2025, as concerns over earnings visibility for technology companies and their AI related capital expenditure dampened sentiment across the region.
Spotlight on ICICI Pru AMC
Back home, investor attention will be on the ICICI Prudential AMC IPO, which enters its second day of subscription today. The issue is expected to see healthy demand, given the fund house’s wide product offering across equity, debt, hybrid, passive and thematic strategies, with a total of 143 schemes.
Rupee weakness a worry
The rupee will also remain in focus after extending its decline to 90.55 against the US dollar, slipping past its previous all time low of 90.47. Analysts warn that sustained weakness in the currency could add pressure on the current account deficit and dampen foreign capital inflows into Indian equities.
Trump to pick Fed chair
On the global policy front, comments from US President Donald Trump late on Friday drew attention. Trump said Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair when his term ends in May, while adding that Kevin Warsh is also under consideration. The appointment is being closely watched for its implications on monetary policy next year.
Institutional activity and outlook
In the previous session, foreign institutional investors sold Indian equities worth Rs 1,114 crore, while domestic institutional investors stepped in as buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 3,869 crore, exchange data showed.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said it would be difficult for FIIs to sustain heavy selling and maintain large short positions, especially in the backdrop of strong SIP inflows and improving earnings prospects. He noted that persistent selling when India’s growth outlook remains healthy is unlikely to be a sustainable strategy and could eventually lend support to the market.

He added that factors such as rupee depreciation, continued FII selling, delays in the US India trade deal and the ongoing AI trade dynamics are temporary headwinds and should ease over time.
Technical outlook
Nifty staged a notable recovery toward the end of the week, establishing a firm demand zone; however, the broader trend remains delicate as the index continues to form lower highs, indicating persistent supply pressure around 26,200. The 26,000–25,900 band emerges as a crucial support area, having previously acted as a strong resistance zone.

&quot;A significant open interest accumulation of nearly 1.19 crore call contracts at the 26,500 strike positions this level as a major overhead resistance. Conversely, about 1.36 crore put contracts at the 26,000 strike confirm a robust support base,&quot; said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

Follow our market blog to catch all the live updates

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Capex, consumption and credit growth are likely moving in sync as the market heads into 2026. This strategic expansion is likely to lift corporate earnings out of the weakened phase seen in FY25, Pradeep Gupta is the Executive Director - Head of Investments India at Lighthouse Canton said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, the current setup is particularly attractive for the year 2026 with strengthening macro &amp; micro fundamentals, expected up move in earnings trajectory, improving FII flows, easing global uncertainty &amp; collective strengthening visibility for a gradual upcycle.

He expects the government to announce additional reforms in 2026 to keep the growth engine strong going forward. Government has already announced the formation of a task force to plan out next-generation reforms aimed at accelerating India’s economic growth with a vision to become a developed nation by 2047, he said.

<strong>After summarising the year gone by (2025), do you expect the year ahead (2026) to be significantly stronger for the Indian equity markets, potentially delivering more than double-digit gains?</strong>

We believe there is a far better &amp; constructive storyline in place for year 2026. Much of the macro induced distortions are behind us, problematic dynamics have been worked through &amp; well absorbed thus setting the stage for fresh set of opportunity cycle. We have already witnessed broad based policy acceleration to push demand side of the table, systemic liquidity, capex &amp; credit. Inflation remains well within comfortable range thus providing conducive environment for both consumption and investment.

Over the past seven years, combined central and state capex has nearly tripled with steady capacity utilisation at about 75% for eleven consecutive quarters. Private-sector capex, however, had remained subdued due to weak consumption and tighter financial conditions. There has been a fundamental shift here. Government has provided much needed consumption support through GST cuts &amp; income-tax reductions, transferring nearly Rs 3 trillion to households. Including the benefit of lower rates, the total boost approaches Rs 4 trillion.

We are likely to witness capex, consumption and credit growth moving in sync as we head into 2026. This strategic expansion is likely to lift corporate earnings out of the weakened phase seen in FY25. The current setup is particularly attractive for the year 2026 with strengthening macro &amp; micro fundamentals, expected up move in earnings trajectory, improving FII flows, easing global uncertainty &amp; collective strengthening visibility for a gradual upcycle.

<strong>Do you believe companies coming up for IPOs are currently trading at bubble-like valuations with limited margin of safety?</strong>

There certainly is deviation from what one may call as a reasonable value. Ongoing surge in non-institutional buying does mirror speculative market cycles seen in past. Prices are being driven less by long-term cash-flow expectations but more so by overall exuberance around this space. But at the outset, it also reflects upon vibrant economy &amp; capital market, robust investor interest, and a maturing startup ecosystem well geared to reward entrepreneurs.

There are some high-quality names which have hit the market. Current pipeline looks fairly robust though not every opportunity after listing has been rewarding. The actual listing gains are more modest compared to previous booms, showing the market is focusing on predictable earnings and strong balance sheets. New-age tech &amp; diverse businesses are tapping the market, but only those with clear growth stories are sustaining post-listing performance. Hence selectivity should be the first order of anchoring for any long-term exposures.

Another key consideration should be to assess the overall cause whether companies are seeking capital for future expansion or rather it is functioning as a strategic, systemic exit vehicle for founders, promoters, and existing investors. Investors should look at the promoters’ track record, management team, and the company’s free float before making investment decisions,

At the end, fundamentals will have to be in sync with the ask &amp; any long standing disconnect will eventually be course corrected by the market.

<strong>Do you expect the government to announce additional reforms in 2026 to keep the growth engine strong going forward?</strong>

Certainly Yes. Government has already announced the formation of a task force to plan out next-generation reforms aimed at accelerating India’s economic growth with a vision to become a developed nation by 2047. We can expect range of reforms &amp; continued policy measures being undertaken for Ease of doing business, Self-reliance, FDI, Infrastructure, Technology &amp; Innovation, regulatory framework &amp; laws, social welfare &amp; other critical areas.

<strong>What do you see as the major risk factors for the market in the coming year?</strong>

External shocks can create near to mid-term volatility, particularly geopolitical led distortions &amp; US led slowdown in global growth cycle. Risks are more likely to emanate from exogenous sources. Any prolonged delay in the India-US trade deal would be a negative &amp; can hamper overall market sentiment along with export momentum.

Capex trajectory &amp; associated revival is another critical area to watch out for. This needs to be seen with overall demand led scenario build up &amp; continued momentum, especially for private capex.

Early signs are visible around earnings revival. While much of the valuation froth is behind us, any disappointment on overall earnings trajectory will be a big negative. Thus, reinforcing the need for consistency. Higher valuations for the broader market are another area. With an uneven earnings profile, any mild miss can lead to sizeable derating.

<strong>Are you bullish on all segments of the financial sector?</strong>

India’s financial sector is fundamentally strong, backed by robust credit growth, sharp improvement in NPAs, and healthy profitability, but our optimism varies across sub-segments. We are most constructive on private banks, given superior deposit franchises, tech-led efficiency, and visibility of 15–17% ROE.

PSU banks have improved with cleaner books, strong profits &amp; trade at attractive valuations but require selectivity as margins could compress with rate cuts.

NBFCs look attractive in near-term with strong loan growth &amp; lower funding costs, though longer term we expect leadership to shift back toward banks as liquidity normalizes.

Insurance remains a structural growth opportunity driven by low penetration and supportive reforms; we prefer strong private insurers despite elevated valuations. Fintech is a high-growth space underpinned by UPI scale and digital adoption, but profitability, competition, and regulation warrant a selective approach—scaled platforms with sustainable economics are preferred.

Capital market intermediaries benefit from rising retail participation, record demat additions, and strong SIP flows, though valuations for leaders are rich.

In summary, we are positive on the sector with higher conviction in private banks, retail-focused NBFCs, quality insurers, scalable fintech’s, and leading capital market platforms—while remaining selective within PSU banks and richly valued names.

<strong>What is your view on the IndiGo fiasco? What key lessons do you draw from this crisis?</strong>

This entire fiasco establishes the fact that scale requires operational flexibility, deep rooted control mechanism, strategic capacity management along with an architecture which aligns with changing dynamics including regulator led disruptions. It also quite highlighted structural weaknesses in the ecosystem given the concentrated nature of the industry at this juncture. An airline which controls 2/3rd of India’s domestic aviation market along with limited competitive players is bound to lead to systemic risk, sizeable cost of failure &amp; huge consumer consequence which was evident here.

Key lessons going forward – Multi dimensional strategic management, operational agility which continues to get tested, stays resilient with adequate contingency measures along with concrete rebalancing with efficiency &amp; reliability both.

<strong>Which sectors are on your radar for a 2026 portfolio, and why?</strong>

We expect a widespread sectoral leadership in 2026 with participation coming from Financials, Consumer discretionary, Healthcare Auto, Capital Goods with select new age companies.

<strong>Financials</strong> – Well capitalized balance sheets, solid asset quality, improving liquidity &amp; strengthening credit.

<strong>Consumer Discretionary &amp; Auto</strong> – GST rehaul, Income tax relief, lower borrowing costs, supporting discretionary demand.

<strong>Capital Goods &amp; Allied sectors</strong> – Continued capex trajectory by the government &amp; improved private capex participation due to demand led impetus.

<strong>Healthcare</strong> – Higher public spending, PLI led measures, rising insurance coverage.

<strong>New Age Themes</strong> – Defence, EV, Clean energy, Semiconductors given governments self-reliance agenda.

<em>Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.</em>

Daily Voice: Lighthouse Canton’s Pradeep Gupta sees capex, consumption and credit growth moving in sync as markets head into 2026

Daily Voice: Lighthouse Canton’s Pradeep Gupta sees capex, consumption and credit growth moving in sync as market heads into 2026

Capex, consumption and credit growth are likely moving in sync as the market heads into 2026. This strategic expansion is likely to lift corporate earnings out of the weakened phase seen in FY25, Pradeep Gupta is the Executive Director - Head of Investments India at Lighthouse Canton said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, the current setup is particularly attractive for the year 2026 with strengthening macro &amp;amp; micro fundamentals, expected up move in earnings trajectory, improving FII flows, easing global uncertainty &amp;amp; collective strengthening visibility for a gradual upcycle.

He expects the government to announce additional reforms in 2026 to keep the growth engine strong going forward. Government has already announced the formation of a task force to plan out next-generation reforms aimed at accelerating India’s economic growth with a vision to become a developed nation by 2047, he said.

After summarising the year gone by (2025), do you expect the year ahead (2026) to be significantly stronger for the Indian equity markets, potentially delivering more than double-digit gains?

We believe there is a far better &amp;amp; constructive storyline in place for year 2026. Much of the macro induced distortions are behind us, problematic dynamics have been worked through &amp;amp; well absorbed thus setting the stage for fresh set of opportunity cycle. We have already witnessed broad based policy acceleration to push demand side of the table, systemic liquidity, capex &amp;amp; credit. Inflation remains well within comfortable range thus providing conducive environment for both consumption and investment.

Over the past seven years, combined central and state capex has nearly tripled with steady capacity utilisation at about 75% for eleven consecutive quarters. Private-sector capex, however, had remained subdued due to weak consumption and tighter financial conditions. There has been a fundamental shift here. Government has provided much needed consumption support through GST cuts &amp;amp; income-tax reductions, transferring nearly Rs 3 trillion to households. Including the benefit of lower rates, the total boost approaches Rs 4 trillion.

We are likely to witness capex, consumption and credit growth moving in sync as we head into 2026. This strategic expansion is likely to lift corporate earnings out of the weakened phase seen in FY25. The current setup is particularly attractive for the year 2026 with strengthening macro &amp;amp; micro fundamentals, expected up move in earnings trajectory, improving FII flows, easing global uncertainty &amp;amp; collective strengthening visibility for a gradual upcycle.

Do you believe companies coming up for IPOs are currently trading at bubble-like valuations with limited margin of safety?

There certainly is deviation from what one may call as a reasonable value. Ongoing surge in non-institutional buying does mirror speculative market cycles seen in past. Prices are being driven less by long-term cash-flow expectations but more so by overall exuberance around this space. But at the outset, it also reflects upon vibrant economy &amp;amp; capital market, robust investor interest, and a maturing startup ecosystem well geared to reward entrepreneurs.

There are some high-quality names which have hit the market. Current pipeline looks fairly robust though not every opportunity after listing has been rewarding. The actual listing gains are more modest compared to previous booms, showing the market is focusing on predictable earnings and strong balance sheets. New-age tech &amp;amp; diverse businesses are tapping the market, but only those with clear growth stories are sustaining post-listing performance. Hence selectivity should be the first order of anchoring for any long-term exposures.

Another key consideration should be to assess the overall cause whether companies are seeking capital for future expansion or rather it is functioning as a strategic, systemic exit vehicle for founders, promoters, and existing investors. Investors should look at the promoters’ track record, management team, and the company’s free float before making investment decisions,

At the end, fundamentals will have to be in sync with the ask &amp;amp; any long standing disconnect will eventually be course corrected by the market.

Do you expect the government to announce additional reforms in 2026 to keep the growth engine strong going forward?

Certainly Yes. Government has already announced the formation of a task force to plan out next-generation reforms aimed at accelerating India’s economic growth with a vision to become a developed nation by 2047. We can expect range of reforms &amp;amp; continued policy measures being undertaken for Ease of doing business, Self-reliance, FDI, Infrastructure, Technology &amp;amp; Innovation, regulatory framework &amp;amp; laws, social welfare &amp;amp; other critical areas.

What do you see as the major risk factors for the market in the coming year?

External shocks can create near to mid-term volatility, particularly geopolitical led distortions &amp;amp; US led slowdown in global growth cycle. Risks are more likely to emanate from exogenous sources. Any prolonged delay in the India-US trade deal would be a negative &amp;amp; can hamper overall market sentiment along with export momentum.

Capex trajectory &amp;amp; associated revival is another critical area to watch out for. This needs to be seen with overall demand led scenario build up &amp;amp; continued momentum, especially for private capex.

Early signs are visible around earnings revival. While much of the valuation froth is behind us, any disappointment on overall earnings trajectory will be a big negative. Thus, reinforcing the need for consistency. Higher valuations for the broader market are another area. With an uneven earnings profile, any mild miss can lead to sizeable derating.

Are you bullish on all segments of the financial sector?

India’s financial sector is fundamentally strong, backed by robust credit growth, sharp improvement in NPAs, and healthy profitability, but our optimism varies across sub-segments. We are most constructive on private banks, given superior deposit franchises, tech-led efficiency, and visibility of 15–17% ROE.

PSU banks have improved with cleaner books, strong profits &amp;amp; trade at attractive valuations but require selectivity as margins could compress with rate cuts.

NBFCs look attractive in near-term with strong loan growth &amp;amp; lower funding costs, though longer term we expect leadership to shift back toward banks as liquidity normalizes.

Insurance remains a structural growth opportunity driven by low penetration and supportive reforms; we prefer strong private insurers despite elevated valuations. Fintech is a high-growth space underpinned by UPI scale and digital adoption, but profitability, competition, and regulation warrant a selective approach—scaled platforms with sustainable economics are preferred.

Capital market intermediaries benefit from rising retail participation, record demat additions, and strong SIP flows, though valuations for leaders are rich.

In summary, we are positive on the sector with higher conviction in private banks, retail-focused NBFCs, quality insurers, scalable fintech’s, and leading capital market platforms—while remaining selective within PSU banks and richly valued names.

What is your view on the IndiGo fiasco? What key lessons do you draw from this crisis?

This entire fiasco establishes the fact that scale requires operational flexibility, deep rooted control mechanism, strategic capacity management along with an architecture which aligns with changing dynamics including regulator led disruptions. It also quite highlighted structural weaknesses in the ecosystem given the concentrated nature of the industry at this juncture. An airline which controls 2/3rd of India’s domestic aviation market along with limited competitive players is bound to lead to systemic risk, sizeable cost of failure &amp;amp; huge consumer consequence which was evident here.

Key lessons going forward – Multi dimensional strategic management, operational agility which continues to get tested, stays resilient with adequate contingency measures along with concrete rebalancing with efficiency &amp;amp; reliability both.

Which sectors are on your radar for a 2026 portfolio, and why?

We expect a widespread sectoral leadership in 2026 with participation coming from Financials, Consumer discretionary, Healthcare Auto, Capital Goods with select new age companies.

Financials – Well capitalized balance sheets, solid asset quality, improving liquidity &amp;amp; strengthening credit.

Consumer Discretionary &amp;amp; Auto – GST rehaul, Income tax relief, lower borrowing costs, supporting discretionary demand.

Capital Goods &amp;amp; Allied sectors – Continued capex trajectory by the government &amp;amp; improved private capex participation due to demand led impetus.

Healthcare – Higher public spending, PLI led measures, rising insurance coverage.

New Age Themes – Defence, EV, Clean energy, Semiconductors given governments self-reliance agenda.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to see a weak start on December 15, with cues coming from GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower at around 26,044.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The benchmark index ended higher for the second consecutive session on December 12. The Nifty 50 rose 0.57% to 26,046.95, while the BSE Sensex added 0.53% to 85,267.66, after gaining about 0.5% on Thursday.

However, the indexes logged a 0.5% weekly fall, as investors booked profits near record highs in the first three sessions this week.

Metals led the charge on Friday, climbing 2.6%, on demand optimism after top consumer China pledged a fiscal boost for 2026 and the Fed cut interest rates.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Down)

The GIFT Nifty is trading weakly at around 26,044, indicating a negative opening for the day.

Asian Equities (Down)

Asian markets opened lower in the final full trading week of 2025 as mounting concerns over the earnings outlook for technology companies — and their massive spending on AI — sapped risk sentiment.



US Equities (Slip)

The S&amp;amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq closed down more than 1% on Friday, with investors leaving technology for other sectors as Broadcom and Oracle fueled concerns about an AI bubble and rising U.S. Treasury yields added pressure after some policymakers spoke out against easing monetary policy.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 398.69 points, or 1.69%, to 23,195.17, while the S&amp;amp;P 500 lost 73.59 points, or 1.07%, to 6,827.41. For the week, the S&amp;amp;P 500 fell 0.63% while the Nasdaq declined 1.62%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 245.96 points, or 0.51% on the day to 48,458.05, but managed to show a weekly gain of 1.05%.



US Bond Yield (Down)

The yield on 10-year Treasuries and 2-year Treasury yield were down marginally at 4.18% and 3.51%, respectively.



Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar traded in a tight range against major peers after President Donald Trump said the new Fed chair will want rates to fall



Asian Currencies (Mixed)

Japanese Yen, Singapore Dollar, Philippines Peso, Thai Baht, Taiwan Dollar were down marginally, while Indonesian Rupiah, China Renminbi, South Korean Won, Malaysian Ringgit were trading with marginal gains.



Crude (Gains)

Oil prices rose on Monday, recouping part of last week's 4% slide, as concerns over potential disruptions from escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions outweighed lingering oversupply worries and the effects of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.



Gold (Up)

Gold steadied following four days of gains, after the conflicting remarks from Fed officials prompted traders to curb bets on further monetary easing in the US next year.



Fund Flow Action

The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities of Rs 1114 crore on December 12, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased equities of Rs 3868 crore on the same day.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

<b>10</b> out of <b>16</b> years <b>NIFTY PSU BANK</b> has given negative returns in <b>December</b>.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	8,285.93	8,324.07	8,372.53	8,237.47	8,199.33	8,150.87	8,112.73
Fibonacci	8,270.55	8,290.99	8,324.07	8,237.47	8,204.39	8,183.95	8,150.87
Camarilla	8,255.74	8,263.68	8,271.62	8,237.47	8,239.86	8,231.92	8,223.98

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY PSU Bank

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