NIFTY Media

Indian equity indices likely to open firm as GIFT Nifty trades marginally higher, Asian equities set for third annual gain, best since 2017, FIIs sold Rs 3844 crore, DIIs bought Rs 6159 crore on December 30

* Indian equity indices likely to open firm as GIFT Nifty trades marginally higher
* Asian equities set for third annual gain, best since 2017
* FIIs sold Rs 3844 crore, DIIs bought Rs 6159 crore on December 30

Indian equity indices are set for a firm opening on December 31, with GIFT Nifty trading higher. Asian equities are up, US stocks slipped, oil prices fell, gold rose, and FIIs continued selling while DIIs bought equities amid thin year-end volumes.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-69

The Indian equity indices are likely to see a firm opening today, December 31, with cues coming from GIFT Nifty, which was trading marginally higher at around 26,129.50.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

In yet another volatile session on December 30 (Nifty F&amp;amp;O expiry day), the equity indices ended marginally lower as investors remained cautious ahead of release of Fed's December minutes report, FII selling with thin year-end volumes.

At close, the Sensex was down 20.46 points or 0.02 percent at 84,675.08, and the Nifty was down 3.25 points or 0.01 percent at 25,938.85. BSE Midcap and smallcap indices ended marginally lower.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Up)

The GIFT Nifty is trading with marginal gains at around 26,129.50, indicating a firm start for the day.

Asian Equities (Up)

Asian equities are set for a third annual gain, and the best since 2017. A number of markets are shut for the year, including Japan and South Korea.



US Equities (Slip)

US stocks slumped on Tuesday, while gold bounced back on the penultimate trading day of 2025.

All three indexes dipped into negative territory in a light-volume pre-holiday session in a subdued ending to a volatile year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 94.87 points, or 0.20%, to 48,367.06. The S&amp;amp;P 500 fell 9.51 points, or 0.14%, to 6,896.23 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 55.27 points, or 0.23%, to 23,419.08.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The yield on 10-year Treasuries and 2-year Treasuries were up marginally at around 4.12 percent and 3.44 percent, respectively.



Dollar Index (Flat)

The dollar edged higher as Group-of-10 currencies traded in tight ranges amid thin, year-end volumes.



Asian Currencies (Up)

Asian currencies were trading mostly higher today with China Renminbi leading the gainers, followed by Indonesian Rupiah, Singapore Dollar, Japanese Yen, Taiwan Dollar.



Crude (Down)

Oil headed for its deepest annual loss since the pandemic in 2020, with prices undermined by concerns about a punishing surplus that’s set to dominate market sentiment and trading into the new year.



Gold (Up)

Gold steadied after an end-of-year dip, but is still on track for its best annual performance since 1979, along with silver.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling on December 30 as they sold equities worth Rs 3844 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities of Rs 6159 crore, on same day.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: US stocks slumped on Tuesday, while gold bounced back on the penultimate trading day of 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 94.87 points, or 0.20%, to 48,367.06. The S&amp;P 500 fell 9.51 points, or 0.14%, to 6,896.23 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 55.27 points, or 0.23%, to 23,419.08.

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Stock Market LIVE Updates: GIFT Nifty indicates a flat opening; US markets fall

Live Blog

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: US stocks slumped on Tuesday, while gold bounced back on the penultimate trading day of 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 94.87 points, or 0.20%, to 48,367.06. The S&amp;amp;P 500 fell 9.51 points, or 0.14%, to 6,896.23 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 55.27 points, or 0.23%, to 23,419.08.

A breakdown Nifty 50 below 25,500 would negate the bullish setup and could open the door for a decline toward 25,000 or lower.

shorts/business/healthy-pause-in-december-not-a-peak-nifty-s-consolidation-keeps-bullish-bias-intact-as-january-series-begins

December derivatives series unfolded as a low-volatility, time-wise corrective phase, with benchmarks consolidating after three consecutive months of gains. The Nifty advanced 0.38 percent, while the Nifty Bank added 0.67 percent, as both the indices remained confined to narrow trading ranges despite hovering near record highs. Mild profit booking failed to inflict any meaningful damage, with declines being swiftly absorbed, indicating strong accumulation at key support levels.

Nifty January rollovers rose to 72.29 percent, up from 68.77 percent in December, while India VIX stayed subdued at 9.67. Meanwhile, FPI long–short ratio slipped to 8.84 percent, highlighting stretched bearish positioning. As the January series begins, the setup points to a bullish-to-sideways bias, with buying on dips likely to remain the preferred strategy.

December derivatives review – Time-wise correction, strength beneath the surface

December derivatives series unfolded as a low-volatility, time-wise corrective phase, with both bulls and bears struggling to assert dominance. The broader market remained locked in a narrow range, resulting in subdued price action across benchmarks, reflecting a phase of digestion rather than distribution.

Importantly, this consolidation came after three consecutive months of positive expiry-to-expiry gains, underscoring a healthy pause within a larger uptrend. Despite trading near all-time highs, the indices witnessed only mild profit-booking, with no meaningful breakdowns. Every minor dip continued to attract buying interest, highlighting persistent accumulation at lower levels and keeping short sellers under pressure.

Rollover data – Selective longs signal constructive undertone

Nifty January futures rollovers stood at 72.29 percent, a notable rise from 68.77 percent in December and broadly in line with the three-month average of 72.22 percent, though marginally below the six-month average of 76.46 percent.

The rollover cost of 0.76 percent (Rs 197) suggests that selective long positions were carried forward, likely by stronger hands positioning for further upside. Despite the absence of sharp price expansion, the improvement in rollover participation points to a constructive undertone heading into the January series.

January series preview – Cautious optimism builds

January series commenced with a modest rise in open interest, increasing to 1.51 crore shares from 1.45 crore in December. This uptick indicates that, even in the absence of strong price momentum, market participants continue to bet on trend continuity rather than a deep corrective phase.

While optimism persists, traders remain watchful amid global uncertainties and event-driven risks. The near-term outlook suggests a bullish-to-sideways trajectory, where buying on declines continues to be the preferred strategy, supported by the market’s underlying technical strength.

Volatility Watch – Calm before the storm?

India VIX remained entrenched in the low-volatility zone, hovering near its 52-week lows and closing December at 9.67. Historically, such depressed volatility levels have often preceded a meaningful uptick in VIX over the next 3–6 months.

However, until the VIX decisively reclaims levels above 15, the probability of sharp panic-driven moves remains limited, suggesting that volatility is likely to stay contained in the near term.

FPI Positioning – Shorts at multi-year extremes

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) stayed net bearish for the sixth consecutive series, increasing their short exposure by 8.84 percent, pushing positioning toward oversold extremes. Despite this elevated short bias, the indices have shown remarkable resilience, with no significant price damage.

The long–short ratio slipped to 8.84 by the end of the series, from 17.19 at the beginning, indicating that FPIs are heavily skewed toward shorts. Such stretched positioning raises the probability of short covering in the coming sessions, indicating a gradual softening of bearish sentiment even as FPIs remain reluctant to turn decisively bullish.

Options Market Radar – Defined range, binary outcome

Options data reflects a mildly optimistic bias. Put writers continue to display confidence at key levels, while Call writers have capped the upside.

Key Resistance: Heavy Call writing at 26,000 and 26,200

Key Support: Strong Put writing near 25,800, with 25,500 emerging as a crucial floor

The setup remains clearly defined:

Above 26,200: A decisive breakout could trigger aggressive short covering, propelling the index toward 26,500–26,700

25,700–25,500: Dips into this zone are likely to invite fresh accumulation

Below 25,450: A close beneath this level would warrant caution and could signal a trend slowdown

For now, the 25,500–26,200 corridor remains the pivotal trading range, with a breakout on either side expected to offer directional clarity.

Technical Outlook – Consolidation, not distribution

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty continues to exhibit impressive resilience. After a strong rally over the past three months, the index has transitioned into a time-wise consolidation, forming a solid immediate base near 25,700. Buyers have consistently absorbed declines, reinforcing the strength of the demand zone.

The index currently hovers around the 25,800–25,700 support band, a critical make-or-break area. As long as this zone holds, downside attempts are likely to be met with buying interest. Crucially, prices remain well above the 10-week and 20-week EMAs, reaffirming the structural bullish trend.

Strategy Playbook – Buy on dips, stay agile

As long as the Nifty sustains above the 25,500–25,600 zone, the broader bias remains constructively bullish. Traders should continue to buy on declines, focusing on accumulation near key support levels.

Upside trigger: A decisive close above 26,200 could force bears into sharp unwinding, extending the rally toward 26,500–26,700

Risk zone: A breakdown below 25,500 would negate the bullish setup and could open the door for a decline toward 25,000 or lower

Until then, the strategy remains to stay tactical, disciplined, and responsive, aligning with the prevailing uptrend while being prepared to recalibrate if critical supports give way.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dhupesh Dhameja is the Derivatives Analyst at Samco Securities.

Healthy pause in December, not a peak: Nifty’s consolidation keeps bullish bias intact as January series begins

December derivatives series unfolded as a low-volatility, time-wise corrective phase, with benchmarks consolidating after three consecutive months of gains. The Nifty advanced 0.38 percent, while the Nifty Bank added 0.67 percent, as both the indices remained confined to narrow trading ranges despite hovering near record highs. Mild profit booking failed to inflict any meaningful damage, with declines being swiftly absorbed, indicating strong accumulation at key support levels.

Nifty January rollovers rose to 72.29 percent, up from 68.77 percent in December, while India VIX stayed subdued at 9.67. Meanwhile, FPI long–short ratio slipped to 8.84 percent, highlighting stretched bearish positioning. As the January series begins, the setup points to a bullish-to-sideways bias, with buying on dips likely to remain the preferred strategy.

December derivatives review – Time-wise correction, strength beneath the surface

December derivatives series unfolded as a low-volatility, time-wise corrective phase, with both bulls and bears struggling to assert dominance. The broader market remained locked in a narrow range, resulting in subdued price action across benchmarks, reflecting a phase of digestion rather than distribution.

Importantly, this consolidation came after three consecutive months of positive expiry-to-expiry gains, underscoring a healthy pause within a larger uptrend. Despite trading near all-time highs, the indices witnessed only mild profit-booking, with no meaningful breakdowns. Every minor dip continued to attract buying interest, highlighting persistent accumulation at lower levels and keeping short sellers under pressure.

Rollover data – Selective longs signal constructive undertone

Nifty January futures rollovers stood at 72.29 percent, a notable rise from 68.77 percent in December and broadly in line with the three-month average of 72.22 percent, though marginally below the six-month average of 76.46 percent.

The rollover cost of 0.76 percent (Rs 197) suggests that selective long positions were carried forward, likely by stronger hands positioning for further upside. Despite the absence of sharp price expansion, the improvement in rollover participation points to a constructive undertone heading into the January series.

January series preview – Cautious optimism builds

January series commenced with a modest rise in open interest, increasing to 1.51 crore shares from 1.45 crore in December. This uptick indicates that, even in the absence of strong price momentum, market participants continue to bet on trend continuity rather than a deep corrective phase.

While optimism persists, traders remain watchful amid global uncertainties and event-driven risks. The near-term outlook suggests a bullish-to-sideways trajectory, where buying on declines continues to be the preferred strategy, supported by the market’s underlying technical strength.

Volatility Watch – Calm before the storm?

India VIX remained entrenched in the low-volatility zone, hovering near its 52-week lows and closing December at 9.67. Historically, such depressed volatility levels have often preceded a meaningful uptick in VIX over the next 3–6 months.

However, until the VIX decisively reclaims levels above 15, the probability of sharp panic-driven moves remains limited, suggesting that volatility is likely to stay contained in the near term.

FPI Positioning – Shorts at multi-year extremes

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) stayed net bearish for the sixth consecutive series, increasing their short exposure by 8.84 percent, pushing positioning toward oversold extremes. Despite this elevated short bias, the indices have shown remarkable resilience, with no significant price damage.

The long–short ratio slipped to 8.84 by the end of the series, from 17.19 at the beginning, indicating that FPIs are heavily skewed toward shorts. Such stretched positioning raises the probability of short covering in the coming sessions, indicating a gradual softening of bearish sentiment even as FPIs remain reluctant to turn decisively bullish.

Options Market Radar – Defined range, binary outcome

Options data reflects a mildly optimistic bias. Put writers continue to display confidence at key levels, while Call writers have capped the upside.

Key Resistance: Heavy Call writing at 26,000 and 26,200

Key Support: Strong Put writing near 25,800, with 25,500 emerging as a crucial floor

The setup remains clearly defined:

Above 26,200: A decisive breakout could trigger aggressive short covering, propelling the index toward 26,500–26,700

25,700–25,500: Dips into this zone are likely to invite fresh accumulation

Below 25,450: A close beneath this level would warrant caution and could signal a trend slowdown

For now, the 25,500–26,200 corridor remains the pivotal trading range, with a breakout on either side expected to offer directional clarity.

Technical Outlook – Consolidation, not distribution

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty continues to exhibit impressive resilience. After a strong rally over the past three months, the index has transitioned into a time-wise consolidation, forming a solid immediate base near 25,700. Buyers have consistently absorbed declines, reinforcing the strength of the demand zone.

The index currently hovers around the 25,800–25,700 support band, a critical make-or-break area. As long as this zone holds, downside attempts are likely to be met with buying interest. Crucially, prices remain well above the 10-week and 20-week EMAs, reaffirming the structural bullish trend.

Strategy Playbook – Buy on dips, stay agile

As long as the Nifty sustains above the 25,500–25,600 zone, the broader bias remains constructively bullish. Traders should continue to buy on declines, focusing on accumulation near key support levels.

Upside trigger: A decisive close above 26,200 could force bears into sharp unwinding, extending the rally toward 26,500–26,700

Risk zone: A breakdown below 25,500 would negate the bullish setup and could open the door for a decline toward 25,000 or lower

Until then, the strategy remains to stay tactical, disciplined, and responsive, aligning with the prevailing uptrend while being prepared to recalibrate if critical supports give way.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Unless the economy moves into a clear recession, federal funds rate cuts are more likely to be sporadic and data dependent rather than a sustained easing cycle, said Arindam Mandal.

shorts/business/daily-voice-why-india-risks-losing-global-capital-in-2026-even-as-emerging-markets-boom

Unless earnings growth improves materially versus other markets, India may continue to face competition for global capital given its valuation premium, said Arindam Mandal, the Head of Global Equities at Marcellus Investment Managers in an interview to Moneycontrol.

On a net basis, in 2025, foreign flows into emerging markets have been very strong – probably the strongest it has been since 2009. In contrast, India saw meaningful selling in equities and mixed performance in debt this year.

After rate cuts in 2025, he does not expect a smooth or linear monetary easing cycle from the US Federal Reserve going ahead. The risk with aggressive easing is that it can quickly reignite inflation, he said.

On the rupee, he is of the view that over the long run, a low single digit annual depreciation against the dollar is not unhealthy and supports India’s export competitiveness.

Do you believe the US market could post another strong year in 2026?

We think 2026 is unlikely to be a simple repeat of recent years, but opportunities should still exist beneath the surface. The last two years were unusual in how returns were generated. In 2024, performance was driven almost entirely by the AI trade. In 2025, returns came from two very different ends of the spectrum working simultaneously. On one side, high beta AI beneficiaries such as Nvidia, Broadcom and Palantir continued to perform. On the other, inflation beneficiaries and assets linked to monetary debasement, such as global banks and precious metals, also did well, despite the absence of a recession.

What struggled in between was the traditional quality, low volatility segment. After a long period where quality stocks rerated meaningfully between 2016 and 2021, valuations for many of these businesses now look far more reasonable. That segment could start to attract capital again.

At a broader level, the valuation gap that existed across regions and asset classes at the end of 2024 has largely closed. Today, most major markets trade broadly in line with their long term median valuations. As a result, forward returns are likely to be driven less by multiple expansion and more by earnings compounding and positive surprises. This is true not just across markets, but also across different segments within individual markets.

At the index level, expectations in the US remain relatively high, with forward valuations for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq still above long term averages. However, once the mega caps are excluded, the opportunity set looks more balanced. So rather than a broad market call, we would frame 2026 as a year where selectivity matters far more than index exposure.

Do you see the strong AI trade continuing into 2026? If so, does this suggest there is no bubble-like situation?

For the AI trade to sustain itself meaningfully, value creation needs to broaden beyond a narrow set of companies. Over time, the economic benefits of AI should start showing up in productivity gains and earnings growth across other parts of the market.

One way to look at this is the performance gap between the headline S&amp;P 500 and the rest of the market. The S&amp;P 493, excluding the Mag 7, has delivered healthy low double-digit returns, even though it has lagged the index driven by mega caps. We would argue that those returns are reasonable and have come with lower drawdown risk.

This does not rule out pockets of excess within AI related stocks, but it also does not mean the entire theme is a bubble. Our approach remains balanced, with limited exposure to the most crowded AI trades and a greater focus on businesses that can benefit indirectly as adoption spreads.

Do you think the strong economic growth reported by the US in Q3 CY25 will continue in the coming quarters?

US growth has consistently surprised on the upside over the past three years, even as sentiment around housing, consumers and small businesses remained subdued. Much of this growth has been supported by AI related capital expenditure, which has held up investment and productivity.

If monetary policy does not become meaningfully restrictive, there is a reasonable chance that growth drivers broaden beyond AI. That would make the expansion more durable. While quarterly growth will always fluctuate, the underlying resilience of the US economy should not be underestimated.

If yes, could this keep foreign investors away from emerging markets such as India?

The recent foreign investor outflows have been more of an India specific phenomenon rather than a broad emerging market trend. On a net basis, foreign flows into emerging markets have been very strong – probably the strongest it has been since 2009. In contrast, India saw meaningful selling in equities and mixed performance in debt.

This coincided with a period where earnings momentum softened and valuations looked stretched. The setup today is somewhat better than it was late last year, as relative valuations have moderated. However, unless earnings growth improves materially versus other markets, India may continue to face competition for global capital given its valuation premium.

Do you see the outperformance of gold and silver continuing into 2026?

Our stance on precious metals remains unchanged. Gold, in particular, should be viewed as a strategic allocation rather than a tactical trade. Predicting annual returns is difficult, but in a world characterised by high debt levels, geopolitical uncertainty, and periodic monetary easing, having some exposure to gold makes sense for portfolio resilience.

What global investment themes should investors consider for 2026?

Inflation beneficiaries could continue to do well, especially if monetary easing proves excessive and inflation pressures re-emerge. At the same time, for investors with a three-to-five-year horizon, selective opportunities may be emerging in high quality consumer, healthcare and industrial businesses, where earnings have lagged but balance sheets and competitive positions remain strong. These areas tend to look most attractive just before earnings begin to inflect.

Do you see a continuation of the monetary easing cycle under the new US Federal Reserve Chair?

We do not expect a smooth or linear easing cycle. The risk with aggressive easing is that it can quickly reignite inflation. While concerns around employment persist, part of the issue appears to be a shortage of suitably skilled workers rather than a lack of jobs.

Unless the economy moves into a clear recession, rate cuts are more likely to be sporadic and data dependent rather than a sustained easing cycle.

Do you expect the Indian rupee to weaken further against the US dollar in 2026?

We do not attempt to predict currencies precisely. That said, it has been notable that the rupee weakened against USD even as many (if not most) global currencies strengthened against the US dollar. This happened despite US rate cuts, partly because long term US yields remained resilient while weaker domestic consumption pushed the RBI towards easing.

Over the long run, a low single digit annual depreciation against the dollar is not unhealthy and supports India’s export competitiveness. Year-to-year currency moves are difficult to forecast, but this broader trend is not necessarily a negative.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Why India risks losing global capital in 2026 even as emerging markets boom

Unless earnings growth improves materially versus other markets, India may continue to face competition for global capital given its valuation premium, said Arindam Mandal, the Head of Global Equities at Marcellus Investment Managers in an interview to Moneycontrol.

On a net basis, in 2025, foreign flows into emerging markets have been very strong – probably the strongest it has been since 2009. In contrast, India saw meaningful selling in equities and mixed performance in debt this year.

After rate cuts in 2025, he does not expect a smooth or linear monetary easing cycle from the US Federal Reserve going ahead. The risk with aggressive easing is that it can quickly reignite inflation, he said.

On the rupee, he is of the view that over the long run, a low single digit annual depreciation against the dollar is not unhealthy and supports India’s export competitiveness.

Do you believe the US market could post another strong year in 2026?

We think 2026 is unlikely to be a simple repeat of recent years, but opportunities should still exist beneath the surface. The last two years were unusual in how returns were generated. In 2024, performance was driven almost entirely by the AI trade. In 2025, returns came from two very different ends of the spectrum working simultaneously. On one side, high beta AI beneficiaries such as Nvidia, Broadcom and Palantir continued to perform. On the other, inflation beneficiaries and assets linked to monetary debasement, such as global banks and precious metals, also did well, despite the absence of a recession.

What struggled in between was the traditional quality, low volatility segment. After a long period where quality stocks rerated meaningfully between 2016 and 2021, valuations for many of these businesses now look far more reasonable. That segment could start to attract capital again.

At a broader level, the valuation gap that existed across regions and asset classes at the end of 2024 has largely closed. Today, most major markets trade broadly in line with their long term median valuations. As a result, forward returns are likely to be driven less by multiple expansion and more by earnings compounding and positive surprises. This is true not just across markets, but also across different segments within individual markets.

At the index level, expectations in the US remain relatively high, with forward valuations for the S&amp;amp;P 500 and Nasdaq still above long term averages. However, once the mega caps are excluded, the opportunity set looks more balanced. So rather than a broad market call, we would frame 2026 as a year where selectivity matters far more than index exposure.

Do you see the strong AI trade continuing into 2026? If so, does this suggest there is no bubble-like situation?

For the AI trade to sustain itself meaningfully, value creation needs to broaden beyond a narrow set of companies. Over time, the economic benefits of AI should start showing up in productivity gains and earnings growth across other parts of the market.

One way to look at this is the performance gap between the headline S&amp;amp;P 500 and the rest of the market. The S&amp;amp;P 493, excluding the Mag 7, has delivered healthy low double-digit returns, even though it has lagged the index driven by mega caps. We would argue that those returns are reasonable and have come with lower drawdown risk.

This does not rule out pockets of excess within AI related stocks, but it also does not mean the entire theme is a bubble. Our approach remains balanced, with limited exposure to the most crowded AI trades and a greater focus on businesses that can benefit indirectly as adoption spreads.

Do you think the strong economic growth reported by the US in Q3 CY25 will continue in the coming quarters?

US growth has consistently surprised on the upside over the past three years, even as sentiment around housing, consumers and small businesses remained subdued. Much of this growth has been supported by AI related capital expenditure, which has held up investment and productivity.

If monetary policy does not become meaningfully restrictive, there is a reasonable chance that growth drivers broaden beyond AI. That would make the expansion more durable. While quarterly growth will always fluctuate, the underlying resilience of the US economy should not be underestimated.

If yes, could this keep foreign investors away from emerging markets such as India?

The recent foreign investor outflows have been more of an India specific phenomenon rather than a broad emerging market trend. On a net basis, foreign flows into emerging markets have been very strong – probably the strongest it has been since 2009. In contrast, India saw meaningful selling in equities and mixed performance in debt.

This coincided with a period where earnings momentum softened and valuations looked stretched. The setup today is somewhat better than it was late last year, as relative valuations have moderated. However, unless earnings growth improves materially versus other markets, India may continue to face competition for global capital given its valuation premium.

Do you see the outperformance of gold and silver continuing into 2026?

Our stance on precious metals remains unchanged. Gold, in particular, should be viewed as a strategic allocation rather than a tactical trade. Predicting annual returns is difficult, but in a world characterised by high debt levels, geopolitical uncertainty, and periodic monetary easing, having some exposure to gold makes sense for portfolio resilience.

What global investment themes should investors consider for 2026?

Inflation beneficiaries could continue to do well, especially if monetary easing proves excessive and inflation pressures re-emerge. At the same time, for investors with a three-to-five-year horizon, selective opportunities may be emerging in high quality consumer, healthcare and industrial businesses, where earnings have lagged but balance sheets and competitive positions remain strong. These areas tend to look most attractive just before earnings begin to inflect.

Do you see a continuation of the monetary easing cycle under the new US Federal Reserve Chair?

We do not expect a smooth or linear easing cycle. The risk with aggressive easing is that it can quickly reignite inflation. While concerns around employment persist, part of the issue appears to be a shortage of suitably skilled workers rather than a lack of jobs.

Unless the economy moves into a clear recession, rate cuts are more likely to be sporadic and data dependent rather than a sustained easing cycle.

Do you expect the Indian rupee to weaken further against the US dollar in 2026?

We do not attempt to predict currencies precisely. That said, it has been notable that the rupee weakened against USD even as many (if not most) global currencies strengthened against the US dollar. This happened despite US rate cuts, partly because long term US yields remained resilient while weaker domestic consumption pushed the RBI towards easing.

Over the long run, a low single digit annual depreciation against the dollar is not unhealthy and supports India’s export competitiveness. Year-to-year currency moves are difficult to forecast, but this broader trend is not necessarily a negative.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Reclaiming and sustaining above 59,200 can give strength to Bank Nifty for a move toward 59,300–59,500; however, support is placed at the 58,800–58,700 zone.

shorts/business/trading-plan-can-nifty-50-break-its-4-day-losing-streak-bank-nifty-scale-above-59-300

The recovery from the day’s low (which also coincided with a support trendline) and the formation of a Doji pattern after a fall on December 30 raised hopes for a rebound and an end to the four-day losing streak in the upcoming session. For that, the Nifty 50 needs to scale above 26,000, as above it, 26,100–26,200 are the levels to watch. However, sustaining below this level can keep the Nifty 50 in a consolidative mode, with support at 25,900–25,800, experts said. Meanwhile, reclaiming and sustaining above 59,200 can give strength to Bank Nifty for a move toward 59,300–59,500; however, support is placed at the 58,800–58,700 zone.

On December 30, the Nifty 50 fell 3 points to 25,939, while the Bank Nifty rose 239 points to 59,171. Market breadth was dominated by bears, with about 1,661 shares declining compared to 1,198 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty extended its losing streak to a fourth straight session. The expiry-day trade was marked by heightened volatility—bears dominated the first half, while bulls staged a smart recovery in the latter part of the session.

Despite the minor decline, Nifty’s close above the 50-DEMA (25,837) keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. A decisive close below this level could signal a breakdown of the ongoing positional uptrend. On the upside, sustained trade above the 26,100–26,150 zone would likely rekindle bullish momentum and open the path for higher levels. Above 26,150, Nifty could extend its rise toward fresh all-time highs above 26,330 and beyond.

Key Resistance: 26,150, 26,330

Key Support: 25,837, 25,726

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at around 25,938, with a stop-loss of 25,726, targeting 26,300.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

In recent sessions, Nifty has entered a sideways phase. On the daily chart, the index is currently trading below the middle Bollinger Bands, keeping short-term pressure intact. From a daily candlestick perspective, the index is yet to register a close above the prior day’s high. The formation of a Doji candle suggests indecision in the market. For a short-term reversal on the upside, acceptance back above 26,030 will be important. Until such a move is seen, the upside remains restricted.

On the downside, any breach below 25,880 can result in the continuation of drifting or range-bound behaviour in the near term.

The Nifty is likely to trade within a range of 25,880–26,030. Unless we see a range breakout, a buy-near-support and sell-near-resistance strategy within the range remains prudent.

Key Resistance: 26,200

Key Support: 25,880

Strategy: Long positions can be created above 26,030 with upside targets of 26,130 followed by 26,200, with a stop-loss at 25,930 levels.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

On the daily chart, Nifty continues to trade within a downward-sloping channel, maintaining a lower high–lower low structure, which reflects persistent selling pressure in the short term.

Nifty closed near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,941, derived from the rally between the November 7 low of 25,318 and the December 1 high of 26,325, making this zone technically significant. On the upside, the 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger Band) at 25,982 is acting as immediate resistance, and a sustained move above this level is required to negate the short-term weakness.

On the downside, 25,896, aligned with the 40-day EMA, serves as an immediate support area. A decisive break below this level could intensify selling pressure and open the door for further correction.

Momentum indicators suggest caution, as the daily RSI at 48.9 remains below its signal line, indicating mild bearish momentum; however, the flattening RSI also hints at a potential slowdown in downside momentum.

From a derivatives standpoint, weekly options data remains neutral, offering no clear directional cues.

Key Resistance: 25,982, 26,088

Key Support: 25,896, 25822

Strategy: Consider selling Nifty Futures near 25,982, for a target of 25,896 followed by 25,822, with a stop-loss of 26,088.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After four sessions of corrective decline, the Bank Nifty index regained momentum on Tuesday, outperforming the Nifty 50. The index has formed a higher bottom above 58,712 and rebounded strongly, reaffirming the continuation of the ongoing uptrend.

A move above the 59,500 mark would signal a fresh breakout and likely reintroduce strong bullish momentum. The index is currently trading above both its 20-DEMA and 50-DEMA, underscoring a bullish setup across multiple timeframes. Additionally, the formation of a bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily chart further strengthens the case for a potential upside reversal.

Key Resistance: 59,500, 60,115

Key Support: 58,700, 58,380

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at around 59,250, with a stop-loss of 58,700, targeting 60,100.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Bank Nifty, in the previous session, found strong support near the 58,700 zone, which is a level we have mentioned in the past. From this support, Bank Nifty witnessed a sharp rebound of nearly 400 points, reflecting strong buying interest at lower levels. By the end of the session, Bank Nifty gave a close above the prior day’s high for the first time after four days of decline, which is a sign of improving momentum.

PSU banks emerged as the key contributors to this rebound, while private banks continued to show relative underperformance. Further follow-up action is now required to confirm the short-term trend change, which can push the index toward 59,470, coinciding with the prior swing high.

Bank Nifty is at an important juncture. The next few sessions of price action will be crucial in determining the bigger direction. Acceptance above 59,280 may extend the pullback, while a break below 58,700 could open doors for fresh selling opportunities.

Key Resistance: 59,800

Key Support: 58,700

Strategy: Long positions can be created above 59,280 with a stop-loss of 58,990 and targets of 59,570 followed by 59,800 levels.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart, taking support near 58,755, which coincides with the 40-day EMA, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The index also managed to close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 58,984, calculated from the rally between the November 7 low of 57,157 and the December 1 high of 60,114, reinforcing the near-term support base.

On the upside, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 59,416 is acting as a key resistance zone, and a sustained breakout above this level could open the door for further upside.

Momentum indicators support the positive bias, as the daily RSI at 53.25 is trading slightly above its signal line, suggesting gradually improving bullish momentum.

Overall, Bank Nifty appears to be staging a bounce from support, and a buy-on-dips strategy can be adopted as long as the index holds above the immediate support zone (58,984). A decisive breakdown below this area would, however, negate the positive outlook.

Key Resistance: 59,416, 59,550

Key Support: 58,984, 58,755

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near the cash reference level of 58,984 for an upside target of 59,416 followed by 59,550, while maintaining a stop-loss at 58,755.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 break its 4-day losing streak, Bank Nifty scale above 59,300?

The recovery from the day’s low (which also coincided with a support trendline) and the formation of a Doji pattern after a fall on December 30 raised hopes for a rebound and an end to the four-day losing streak in the upcoming session. For that, the Nifty 50 needs to scale above 26,000, as above it, 26,100–26,200 are the levels to watch. However, sustaining below this level can keep the Nifty 50 in a consolidative mode, with support at 25,900–25,800, experts said. Meanwhile, reclaiming and sustaining above 59,200 can give strength to Bank Nifty for a move toward 59,300–59,500; however, support is placed at the 58,800–58,700 zone.

On December 30, the Nifty 50 fell 3 points to 25,939, while the Bank Nifty rose 239 points to 59,171. Market breadth was dominated by bears, with about 1,661 shares declining compared to 1,198 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty extended its losing streak to a fourth straight session. The expiry-day trade was marked by heightened volatility—bears dominated the first half, while bulls staged a smart recovery in the latter part of the session.

Despite the minor decline, Nifty’s close above the 50-DEMA (25,837) keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. A decisive close below this level could signal a breakdown of the ongoing positional uptrend. On the upside, sustained trade above the 26,100–26,150 zone would likely rekindle bullish momentum and open the path for higher levels. Above 26,150, Nifty could extend its rise toward fresh all-time highs above 26,330 and beyond.

Key Resistance: 26,150, 26,330

Key Support: 25,837, 25,726

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at around 25,938, with a stop-loss of 25,726, targeting 26,300.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

In recent sessions, Nifty has entered a sideways phase. On the daily chart, the index is currently trading below the middle Bollinger Bands, keeping short-term pressure intact. From a daily candlestick perspective, the index is yet to register a close above the prior day’s high. The formation of a Doji candle suggests indecision in the market. For a short-term reversal on the upside, acceptance back above 26,030 will be important. Until such a move is seen, the upside remains restricted.

On the downside, any breach below 25,880 can result in the continuation of drifting or range-bound behaviour in the near term.

The Nifty is likely to trade within a range of 25,880–26,030. Unless we see a range breakout, a buy-near-support and sell-near-resistance strategy within the range remains prudent.

Key Resistance: 26,200

Key Support: 25,880

Strategy: Long positions can be created above 26,030 with upside targets of 26,130 followed by 26,200, with a stop-loss at 25,930 levels.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

On the daily chart, Nifty continues to trade within a downward-sloping channel, maintaining a lower high–lower low structure, which reflects persistent selling pressure in the short term.

Nifty closed near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 25,941, derived from the rally between the November 7 low of 25,318 and the December 1 high of 26,325, making this zone technically significant. On the upside, the 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger Band) at 25,982 is acting as immediate resistance, and a sustained move above this level is required to negate the short-term weakness.

On the downside, 25,896, aligned with the 40-day EMA, serves as an immediate support area. A decisive break below this level could intensify selling pressure and open the door for further correction.

Momentum indicators suggest caution, as the daily RSI at 48.9 remains below its signal line, indicating mild bearish momentum; however, the flattening RSI also hints at a potential slowdown in downside momentum.

From a derivatives standpoint, weekly options data remains neutral, offering no clear directional cues.

Key Resistance: 25,982, 26,088

Key Support: 25,896, 25822

Strategy: Consider selling Nifty Futures near 25,982, for a target of 25,896 followed by 25,822, with a stop-loss of 26,088.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Vinay Rajani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After four sessions of corrective decline, the Bank Nifty index regained momentum on Tuesday, outperforming the Nifty 50. The index has formed a higher bottom above 58,712 and rebounded strongly, reaffirming the continuation of the ongoing uptrend.

A move above the 59,500 mark would signal a fresh breakout and likely reintroduce strong bullish momentum. The index is currently trading above both its 20-DEMA and 50-DEMA, underscoring a bullish setup across multiple timeframes. Additionally, the formation of a bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily chart further strengthens the case for a potential upside reversal.

Key Resistance: 59,500, 60,115

Key Support: 58,700, 58,380

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at around 59,250, with a stop-loss of 58,700, targeting 60,100.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Bank Nifty, in the previous session, found strong support near the 58,700 zone, which is a level we have mentioned in the past. From this support, Bank Nifty witnessed a sharp rebound of nearly 400 points, reflecting strong buying interest at lower levels. By the end of the session, Bank Nifty gave a close above the prior day’s high for the first time after four days of decline, which is a sign of improving momentum.

PSU banks emerged as the key contributors to this rebound, while private banks continued to show relative underperformance. Further follow-up action is now required to confirm the short-term trend change, which can push the index toward 59,470, coinciding with the prior swing high.

Bank Nifty is at an important juncture. The next few sessions of price action will be crucial in determining the bigger direction. Acceptance above 59,280 may extend the pullback, while a break below 58,700 could open doors for fresh selling opportunities.

Key Resistance: 59,800

Key Support: 58,700

Strategy: Long positions can be created above 59,280 with a stop-loss of 58,990 and targets of 59,570 followed by 59,800 levels.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart, taking support near 58,755, which coincides with the 40-day EMA, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The index also managed to close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 58,984, calculated from the rally between the November 7 low of 57,157 and the December 1 high of 60,114, reinforcing the near-term support base.

On the upside, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 59,416 is acting as a key resistance zone, and a sustained breakout above this level could open the door for further upside.

Momentum indicators support the positive bias, as the daily RSI at 53.25 is trading slightly above its signal line, suggesting gradually improving bullish momentum.

Overall, Bank Nifty appears to be staging a bounce from support, and a buy-on-dips strategy can be adopted as long as the index holds above the immediate support zone (58,984). A decisive breakdown below this area would, however, negate the positive outlook.

Key Resistance: 59,416, 59,550

Key Support: 58,984, 58,755

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures near the cash reference level of 58,984 for an upside target of 59,416 followed by 59,550, while maintaining a stop-loss at 58,755.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

9 out of 15 years NIFTY MEDIA has given positive returns in December.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	1,431.92	1,440.43	1,449.57	1,422.78	1,414.27	1,405.13	1,396.62
Fibonacci	1,429.53	1,433.69	1,440.43	1,422.78	1,416.04	1,411.88	1,405.13
Camarilla	1,425.02	1,426.64	1,428.25	1,422.78	1,421.78	1,420.16	1,418.55

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