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US Supreme Court’s ruling is a major blow to President Trump’s plans to wield tariffs, Direct risks for India from Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs limited, Continued global uncertainty  feeds the sideways market movements

* US Supreme Court’s ruling is a major blow to President Trump’s plans to wield tariffs
* Direct risks for India from Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs limited
* Continued global uncertainty  feeds the sideways market movements

shorts/business/daily-voice-us-iran-tensions-contained-india-impact-from-trump-tariff-ruling-limited-says-prachi-deuskar

* US Supreme Court’s ruling is a major blow to President Trump’s plans to wield tariffs
* Direct risks for India from Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs limited
* Continued global uncertainty  feeds the sideways market movements

According to Prachi Deuskar, smallcase Manager and Co-Founder of Lotusdew, the risk of a prolonged war between the US and Iran is limited, as higher oil prices would also hurt US consumers.

She added that, given the currently benign inflation environment, India has sufficient buffer to absorb any oil price pressures. Therefore, she does not see the situation as a major cause for concern.

Meanwhile, she believes that the direct risks for India arising from the Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs are limited. “The progress India and the US have recently made on a trade treaty shields India, to a large extent, from the fallout of this uncertainty. Further, in light of the Supreme Court (SC) ruling, India is likely to renegotiate certain aspects of the trade treaty to secure more favourable terms,” she said.

Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs in Friday's hearing. What does this mean for India, the US, and others?The 

US Supreme Court’s ruling is a major blow to President Trump’s plans to wield tariffs as a strategic weapon against allies and adversaries alike. However, he may look to find other ways of imposing tariffs. This increases the global uncertainty as many countries that were looking to incorporate the new tariff reality in their outlook and work with it, now find themselves staring at a new, ambiguous tariff regime.

However, the direct risks for India are limited. The progress India and the US have recently made on a trade treaty does shield India from the fallout of this uncertainty to a large extent. Further, in light of the Supreme Court (SC) ruling, India is likely to renegotiate some aspects of the trade treaty for more favourable terms. Thus, on the whole, this is a no-impact or mildly-favourite-impact situation for India.

What could be Plan B by Trump, especially after the SC ruling?

The SC ruling is narrow in the sense that it finds that the current law used the levy tariffs does give the USpresident such an authority. Thus, Trump would look for other legal avenues to impose tariffs, including getting them approved by Congress. However, the extent to which such actions are possible is not clear immediately. Hence, the added global uncertainty.

Do you think the market will remain in consolidation or trade within a range until IT and FMCG stocks regain momentum?

IT and FMCG have underperformed recently, and their recovery is crucial to the overall market direction. However, the continued global uncertainty also feeds the sideways market movements.

Do you believe economic growth is likely to remain healthy next year, with nominal GDP expected to stay in double digits?

India continues to be the only major economy delivering robust growth. Macro fundamentals remain strong with strong growth in industrial production and bank credit growth. While the urban consumption shows some softness, the rural demand remains firm.

India Inc’s CapEx (capital expenditure) is likely to pick up, adding further boost. The benign inflation environment will allow the RBI to maintain low interest rates make the environment further conducive to growth. Over 2026-27, we expect the real GDP to grow by around 6.5-7%. Given the moderate inflation, this may translate to the nominal GDP growth of 9.5%-10.5%.

Are you bullish on the banking sector as a whole, given the expectation of double-digit loan growth?

Yes, the recent CRR cut from 4% to 1% for Infra will help. Also, renewed capex will drive credit growth. This augurs well for the banking sector.

Do you think there will be no major near-term challenges for IT companies in terms of revenue generation?

IT service companies have secured cash flows that are not easily disrupted by near term issues. However, the challenge is the long-term sustainability of such cash flows.

Are you concerned about geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which have pushed oil prices higher and raised inflation concerns?

A prolonged conflict between the US and Iran will keep the oil prices high, in turn raising India’s energy spending and feeding into inflation. Given the repeated failures of diplomacy and the combustible domestic situation in Iran, the evolution of the conflict remains unpredictable.

Yet, the risk of a long, drawn-out war is limited, since higher oil prices would hit US consumers as well. Further, given the very benign inflation environment, there is a buffer for India to absorb this price pressure. Thus, we do not see this as a cause for major concern.

After reviewing the December quarter earnings, do you believe confidence in an earnings growth recovery has increased?

Earnings are still mixed, and we continue to remain stock-specific.

If yes, which sectors do you expect to lead the anticipated earnings recovery?

We believe that there are bright spots in each sector to be picked through careful selection. But overall, the financials show the promise to lead the earnings recovery.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Daily Voice | US-Iran tensions contained; India impact from Trump tariff ruling limited, says Prachi Deuskar

According to Prachi Deuskar, smallcase Manager and Co-Founder of Lotusdew, the risk of a prolonged war between the US and Iran is limited, as higher oil prices would also hurt US consumers.

She added that, given the currently benign inflation environment, India has sufficient buffer to absorb any oil price pressures. Therefore, she does not see the situation as a major cause for concern.

Meanwhile, she believes that the direct risks for India arising from the Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs are limited. “The progress India and the US have recently made on a trade treaty shields India, to a large extent, from the fallout of this uncertainty. Further, in light of the Supreme Court (SC) ruling, India is likely to renegotiate certain aspects of the trade treaty to secure more favourable terms,” she said.

Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs in Friday's hearing. What does this mean for India, the US, and others?The 

US Supreme Court’s ruling is a major blow to President Trump’s plans to wield tariffs as a strategic weapon against allies and adversaries alike. However, he may look to find other ways of imposing tariffs. This increases the global uncertainty as many countries that were looking to incorporate the new tariff reality in their outlook and work with it, now find themselves staring at a new, ambiguous tariff regime.

However, the direct risks for India are limited. The progress India and the US have recently made on a trade treaty does shield India from the fallout of this uncertainty to a large extent. Further, in light of the Supreme Court (SC) ruling, India is likely to renegotiate some aspects of the trade treaty for more favourable terms. Thus, on the whole, this is a no-impact or mildly-favourite-impact situation for India.

What could be Plan B by Trump, especially after the SC ruling?

The SC ruling is narrow in the sense that it finds that the current law used the levy tariffs does give the USpresident such an authority. Thus, Trump would look for other legal avenues to impose tariffs, including getting them approved by Congress. However, the extent to which such actions are possible is not clear immediately. Hence, the added global uncertainty.

Do you think the market will remain in consolidation or trade within a range until IT and FMCG stocks regain momentum?

IT and FMCG have underperformed recently, and their recovery is crucial to the overall market direction. However, the continued global uncertainty also feeds the sideways market movements.

Do you believe economic growth is likely to remain healthy next year, with nominal GDP expected to stay in double digits?

India continues to be the only major economy delivering robust growth. Macro fundamentals remain strong with strong growth in industrial production and bank credit growth. While the urban consumption shows some softness, the rural demand remains firm.

India Inc’s CapEx (capital expenditure) is likely to pick up, adding further boost. The benign inflation environment will allow the RBI to maintain low interest rates make the environment further conducive to growth. Over 2026-27, we expect the real GDP to grow by around 6.5-7%. Given the moderate inflation, this may translate to the nominal GDP growth of 9.5%-10.5%.

Are you bullish on the banking sector as a whole, given the expectation of double-digit loan growth?

Yes, the recent CRR cut from 4% to 1% for Infra will help. Also, renewed capex will drive credit growth. This augurs well for the banking sector.

Do you think there will be no major near-term challenges for IT companies in terms of revenue generation?

IT service companies have secured cash flows that are not easily disrupted by near term issues. However, the challenge is the long-term sustainability of such cash flows.

Are you concerned about geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which have pushed oil prices higher and raised inflation concerns?

A prolonged conflict between the US and Iran will keep the oil prices high, in turn raising India’s energy spending and feeding into inflation. Given the repeated failures of diplomacy and the combustible domestic situation in Iran, the evolution of the conflict remains unpredictable.

Yet, the risk of a long, drawn-out war is limited, since higher oil prices would hit US consumers as well. Further, given the very benign inflation environment, there is a buffer for India to absorb this price pressure. Thus, we do not see this as a cause for major concern.

After reviewing the December quarter earnings, do you believe confidence in an earnings growth recovery has increased?

Earnings are still mixed, and we continue to remain stock-specific.

If yes, which sectors do you expect to lead the anticipated earnings recovery?

We believe that there are bright spots in each sector to be picked through careful selection. But overall, the financials show the promise to lead the earnings recovery.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

25,950–26,000 band stands as an immediate resistance zone for Nifty 50, Momentum visibly strengthening in both Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries, supported by improving technical structure, Charts for NTPC and Apar Industries signalling improving momentum

* 25,950–26,000 band stands as an immediate resistance zone for Nifty 50
* Momentum visibly strengthening in both Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries, supported by improving technical structure
*Charts for NTPC and Apar Industries signalling improving momentum

shorts/business/chartist-talk-nifty-to-jump-350-400-pts-on-trump-tariff-verdict-25-950-26-000-crucial-says-sudeep-shah

* 25,950–26,000 band stands as an immediate resistance zone for Nifty 50
* Momentum visibly strengthening in both Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries, supported by improving technical structure
*Charts for NTPC and Apar Industries signalling improving momentum

Following the Supreme Court’s verdict against the Trump-era tariffs, positive global cues could trigger a gap-up opening of around 350-400 points on the Nifty 50, but thereafter how the index reacts around 25,950-26,000 resistance levels will determine the next meaningful directional move, said Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He is bullish on Indian Bank and Tata Steel. "Indian Bank has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a weekly scale and formed a sizeable bullish candle, while Tata Steel continues to form a higher high–higher low structure on the daily scale and is consolidating at higher levels, reflecting underlying strength," he said.

Gift Nifty futures are signaling a 350–400-point rally on Monday following the Supreme Court ruling against Trump-era tariffs. Do you think the Nifty can break through and sustain above the tough 25,900–26,000 hurdle in the week ahead?

Last week, the benchmark index Nifty oscillated within a narrow 512-point band — its tightest weekly range in the past month — leading to the formation of an NR4 pattern. Despite this contraction in price range, volatility stayed elevated. The first three sessions saw a gradual pullback, but Thursday brought a sharp reversal that wiped out earlier gains. On Friday, the index once again found support near the lower boundary of the range and bounced back. Such choppy price action suggests that a deeper structural shift may be brewing beneath the surface.

Since February 4, Nifty has been consolidating within a well-defined corridor of 26,009–25,373. Even within this confined range, volatility has remained relatively high. Prolonged consolidation has caused key moving averages to flatten, reflecting the absence of a clear trend. Momentum indicators also reinforce the sideways bias, with the daily RSI moving within a compressed band for the last 13 sessions. Historically, such extended compression phases often precede a strong breakout in either direction.

In the near term, the index is likely to continue moving sideways, with stock-specific opportunities remaining active. However, following the Supreme Court’s verdict against the Trump-era tariffs, positive global cues could trigger a gap-up opening of around 350–400 points.

On the levels front, the 25,400–25,350 zone remains a crucial support area, marked by the confluence of multiple previous swing lows. A decisive breach below 25,350 may open the door for a sharper correction toward 25,000. On the upside, the 25,950–26,000 band stands as an immediate resistance zone. How the index reacts around these key levels will determine the next meaningful directional move.

Do you think the Bank Nifty will maintain its upward trajectory and continue to outperform next week as well?

The banking benchmark, Bank Nifty, remains a clear outperformer, continuing to outshine the broader market. While the headline Nifty still trades nearly 3% below its record peak, Bank Nifty is hovering close to its lifetime highs, highlighting the sector’s relative strength. This dominance is also evident in the Bank Nifty–Nifty ratio chart, which has climbed to a 33-month high — signalling that market leadership is firmly tilted toward banking stocks at present.

Technically, with the index trading near historic levels, the overall setup remains decisively bullish. All key moving averages are aligned positively, supporting the prevailing uptrend. The daily RSI is comfortably placed around 60, indicating sustained momentum, while the weekly RSI has advanced further into bullish territory, reinforcing the strength of the broader trend.

Given this constructive price structure and supportive momentum indicators, Bank Nifty appears well-positioned to continue its upward move in the near term. From a levels perspective, the 20-day EMA zone of 60,500–60,400 serves as an important support band.

On the upside, 61,600–61,700 stands as the immediate hurdle. A decisive and sustained move above 61,700 could pave the way for a fresh rally, potentially leading to new record highs and the next phase of bullish expansion.

Is <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/infrastructure-general/abbindia/ABB">ABB India</a> ready for an upward move after several months of consolidation?

ABB is showing constructive technical signals. The stock gave a downward-sloping trendline breakout on January 29 and has since moved up in a measured manner. During most of February, price action remained confined to a narrow range but importantly continued to hold above its key moving averages, indicating underlying buying interest.

The recent breakout above the Rs 5,583–5,940 consolidation band on February 20, supported by a sharp spike in volumes, adds credibility to the bullish setup. Momentum indicators are also turning favourable, with the DI lines on the ADX beginning to widen in favour of bulls and the RSI witnessing an uptick from the 60 zone, both encouraging signs of strengthening momentum.

As long as the stock sustains above the Rs 5,700–5,670 support zone, the near-term bias is likely to remain positive with scope for further upside.

Is momentum strengthening in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/electric-equipment/hitachienergyindia/APP03">Hitachi Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/cables-powerothers/keiindustries/KEI">KEI Industries</a>?

Momentum is visibly strengthening in both Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries, supported by an improving technical structure. Both stocks have given horizontal trendline breakouts on the daily chart and are now trading comfortably above their key short- and long-term moving averages. Notably, each had slipped below the 200-day moving average in late January but has since staged a strong and steady recovery, a sign of renewed buying interest.

Momentum indicators further reinforce the positive bias: RSI in both counters is rising and holding above the 60 mark, while the ADX setup shows DI+ positioned above DI-, indicating bullish dominance. From a levels perspective, Rs 4,600 remains a crucial support for KEI Industries, while Rs 23200 is the key support for Hitachi Energy India. As long as prices hold above these zones, the ongoing uptrend has room to extend further.

Are the charts signalling strong momentum for <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/power-generationdistribution/ntpc/NTP">NTPC</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/electric-equipment/aparindustries/AI40">Apar Industries</a> for the coming week?

Yes, the charts for both NTPC and Apar Industries are signalling improving momentum heading into the coming week.

NTPC has given a breakout of the Rs 361–372 consolidation range on the daily chart, supported by a healthy pickup in volumes. The stock is trading above its key moving averages, reinforcing the positive bias. Importantly, RSI has reclaimed the 60 mark after a brief dip, pointing to renewed bullish momentum. As long as the stock sustains above the 360-support zone, the near-term trend is likely to remain positive.

Apar Industries has also delivered a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily timeframe. The ADX is trending higher, indicating strengthening trend momentum. Additionally, the stock has successfully held the gap-up move from 3 February, which is technically constructive. Sustenance above the Rs 10,000 support level could allow the up move to extend further.

What are your top two stock picks for next week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/indianbank/IB04">Indian Bank</a>

The PSU Bank index has strongly outperformed frontline indices as it has surged by over 5% in the last week. The ratio chart of the index as compared to the Nifty index is at a 98-month high, which shows a strong and sustained uptrend. The stock of Indian Bank has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a weekly scale and formed a sizeable bullish candle.

As the stock is trading at an all-time high, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators are suggesting strong bullish momentum. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 938–948 with a stop-loss of Rs 915. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,010 in the short term.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/ironsteel/tatasteel/TIS">Tata Steel</a>

Tata Steel has witnessed three consecutive bullish monthly closes and is trading near its all-time high, indicating strong buying participation and outperformance. From a technical perspective, the stock continues to form a higher high–higher low structure on the daily scale and is consolidating at higher levels, reflecting underlying strength.

On the indicators front, the stock is trading above its key EMAs, with RSI sustaining above 60, MACD in positive territory, and a rising ADX, indicating strength in the current trend structure. Overall setup suggests a positive structure. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 207–209 with a stop-loss of Rs 200. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 225 in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist Talk: Nifty to jump 350-400 pts on Trump tariff verdict; 25,950-26,000 crucial, says Sudeep Shah

Following the Supreme Court’s verdict against the Trump-era tariffs, positive global cues could trigger a gap-up opening of around 350-400 points on the Nifty 50, but thereafter how the index reacts around 25,950-26,000 resistance levels will determine the next meaningful directional move, said Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He is bullish on Indian Bank and Tata Steel. &quot;Indian Bank has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a weekly scale and formed a sizeable bullish candle, while Tata Steel continues to form a higher high–higher low structure on the daily scale and is consolidating at higher levels, reflecting underlying strength,&quot; he said.

Gift Nifty futures are signaling a 350–400-point rally on Monday following the Supreme Court ruling against Trump-era tariffs. Do you think the Nifty can break through and sustain above the tough 25,900–26,000 hurdle in the week ahead?

Last week, the benchmark index Nifty oscillated within a narrow 512-point band — its tightest weekly range in the past month — leading to the formation of an NR4 pattern. Despite this contraction in price range, volatility stayed elevated. The first three sessions saw a gradual pullback, but Thursday brought a sharp reversal that wiped out earlier gains. On Friday, the index once again found support near the lower boundary of the range and bounced back. Such choppy price action suggests that a deeper structural shift may be brewing beneath the surface.

Since February 4, Nifty has been consolidating within a well-defined corridor of 26,009–25,373. Even within this confined range, volatility has remained relatively high. Prolonged consolidation has caused key moving averages to flatten, reflecting the absence of a clear trend. Momentum indicators also reinforce the sideways bias, with the daily RSI moving within a compressed band for the last 13 sessions. Historically, such extended compression phases often precede a strong breakout in either direction.

In the near term, the index is likely to continue moving sideways, with stock-specific opportunities remaining active. However, following the Supreme Court’s verdict against the Trump-era tariffs, positive global cues could trigger a gap-up opening of around 350–400 points.

On the levels front, the 25,400–25,350 zone remains a crucial support area, marked by the confluence of multiple previous swing lows. A decisive breach below 25,350 may open the door for a sharper correction toward 25,000. On the upside, the 25,950–26,000 band stands as an immediate resistance zone. How the index reacts around these key levels will determine the next meaningful directional move.

Do you think the Bank Nifty will maintain its upward trajectory and continue to outperform next week as well?

The banking benchmark, Bank Nifty, remains a clear outperformer, continuing to outshine the broader market. While the headline Nifty still trades nearly 3% below its record peak, Bank Nifty is hovering close to its lifetime highs, highlighting the sector’s relative strength. This dominance is also evident in the Bank Nifty–Nifty ratio chart, which has climbed to a 33-month high — signalling that market leadership is firmly tilted toward banking stocks at present.

Technically, with the index trading near historic levels, the overall setup remains decisively bullish. All key moving averages are aligned positively, supporting the prevailing uptrend. The daily RSI is comfortably placed around 60, indicating sustained momentum, while the weekly RSI has advanced further into bullish territory, reinforcing the strength of the broader trend.

Given this constructive price structure and supportive momentum indicators, Bank Nifty appears well-positioned to continue its upward move in the near term. From a levels perspective, the 20-day EMA zone of 60,500–60,400 serves as an important support band.

On the upside, 61,600–61,700 stands as the immediate hurdle. A decisive and sustained move above 61,700 could pave the way for a fresh rally, potentially leading to new record highs and the next phase of bullish expansion.

Is ABB India ready for an upward move after several months of consolidation?

ABB is showing constructive technical signals. The stock gave a downward-sloping trendline breakout on January 29 and has since moved up in a measured manner. During most of February, price action remained confined to a narrow range but importantly continued to hold above its key moving averages, indicating underlying buying interest.

The recent breakout above the Rs 5,583–5,940 consolidation band on February 20, supported by a sharp spike in volumes, adds credibility to the bullish setup. Momentum indicators are also turning favourable, with the DI lines on the ADX beginning to widen in favour of bulls and the RSI witnessing an uptick from the 60 zone, both encouraging signs of strengthening momentum.

As long as the stock sustains above the Rs 5,700–5,670 support zone, the near-term bias is likely to remain positive with scope for further upside.

Is momentum strengthening in Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries?

Momentum is visibly strengthening in both Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries, supported by an improving technical structure. Both stocks have given horizontal trendline breakouts on the daily chart and are now trading comfortably above their key short- and long-term moving averages. Notably, each had slipped below the 200-day moving average in late January but has since staged a strong and steady recovery, a sign of renewed buying interest.

Momentum indicators further reinforce the positive bias: RSI in both counters is rising and holding above the 60 mark, while the ADX setup shows DI+ positioned above DI-, indicating bullish dominance. From a levels perspective, Rs 4,600 remains a crucial support for KEI Industries, while Rs 23200 is the key support for Hitachi Energy India. As long as prices hold above these zones, the ongoing uptrend has room to extend further.

Are the charts signalling strong momentum for NTPC and Apar Industries for the coming week?

Yes, the charts for both NTPC and Apar Industries are signalling improving momentum heading into the coming week.

NTPC has given a breakout of the Rs 361–372 consolidation range on the daily chart, supported by a healthy pickup in volumes. The stock is trading above its key moving averages, reinforcing the positive bias. Importantly, RSI has reclaimed the 60 mark after a brief dip, pointing to renewed bullish momentum. As long as the stock sustains above the 360-support zone, the near-term trend is likely to remain positive.

Apar Industries has also delivered a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily timeframe. The ADX is trending higher, indicating strengthening trend momentum. Additionally, the stock has successfully held the gap-up move from 3 February, which is technically constructive. Sustenance above the Rs 10,000 support level could allow the up move to extend further.

What are your top two stock picks for next week?

Indian Bank

The PSU Bank index has strongly outperformed frontline indices as it has surged by over 5% in the last week. The ratio chart of the index as compared to the Nifty index is at a 98-month high, which shows a strong and sustained uptrend. The stock of Indian Bank has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a weekly scale and formed a sizeable bullish candle.

As the stock is trading at an all-time high, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators are suggesting strong bullish momentum. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 938–948 with a stop-loss of Rs 915. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,010 in the short term.

Tata Steel

Tata Steel has witnessed three consecutive bullish monthly closes and is trading near its all-time high, indicating strong buying participation and outperformance. From a technical perspective, the stock continues to form a higher high–higher low structure on the daily scale and is consolidating at higher levels, reflecting underlying strength.

On the indicators front, the stock is trading above its key EMAs, with RSI sustaining above 60, MACD in positive territory, and a rising ADX, indicating strength in the current trend structure. Overall setup suggests a positive structure. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 207–209 with a stop-loss of Rs 200. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 225 in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Among the broader market indices, smallcaps underperformed midcaps and the main indices amid heightened volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices, and sustained selling by FIIs.

Among the broader indices, the BSE Smallcap index declined 0.5 percent, while the BSE Midcap index advanced 0.35 percent and the BSE Largecap index gained 0.4 percent during the week.

This week, the BSE Sensex added 187.95 points, or 0.22 percent, to finish at 82,814.71, while the Nifty50 rose 100.15 points, or 0.39 percent, to close at 25,571.25.

Sectoral performance remained mixed during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index rose 5.5 percent, while the Nifty Energy index gained 2.4 percent and the Nifty FMCG index added 1.7 percent. The Nifty Pharma, Healthcare, and Defence indices advanced around 1 percent each. However, the Nifty Auto, IT, and Media indices declined between 1.3 and 2.5 percent during the period.

"Market sentiment remained volatile during the week, oscillating between caution and optimism. Strong buying interest in banking, financials, power, and select FMCG counters helped absorb the impact of persistent global uncertainties. Steady asset quality, stable credit growth, and clearer progress on trade discussions reinforced confidence in the domestic macro environment," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

"In contrast, IT stocks remained subdued as concerns around AI-led disruption and margin pressures weighed on investor confidence. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with a sharp rise in crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the US Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, briefly sparked broad-based selling. Despite these challenges, resilience in large caps, selective sectoral flows, and optimism around India’s participation in Pax Silica ensured that the market ended on a positive bias," Nair added.

"The market will closely monitor the developments between the US and Iran, crude oil price movements, and global monetary signals. Although volatility may stay elevated, strong domestic macro fundamentals and a supportive demand environment are expected to provide a cushion."

"The release of India’s GDP data next week will be keenly watched for its implications on earnings momentum and broader market positioning. Overall, markets are likely to trade within a range, with liquidity flows and global developments shaping short-term movements," he added.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling for the second consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹637.68 crore during the period. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹6,883.81 crore.

The BSE Smallcap index shed 0.5 percent during the week, with stocks such as Aqylon Nexus, Filatex Fashions, Transworld Shipping Lines, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, SEPC, Shoppers Stop, and Pennar Industries declining between 16–22 percent. On the other hand, VL E-Governance and IT Solutions, Novartis India, RACL Geartech, KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration, Godfrey Phillips India, Aeroflex Industries, Netweb Technologies India, Jyoti Structures, Newgen Software Technologies, Sadhana Nitrochem, and Jindal Poly Investment and Finance Company gained between 16 and 28 percent.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13838101" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221052032_12345.png" alt="12345" width="814" height="804" />

Where is the market headed?

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Over the next few days, higher volatility can be expected, with the index likely to oscillate in the 25,300–25,800 range. Immediate support is placed at 25,500, while immediate resistance is seen at 25,650."

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

The market is likely to consolidate next week, tracking the geopolitical development along with the signing of the India-US trade deal, India Q3 GDP data, US initial Jobless claims, and the conclusion of the AI summit.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Small-cap index slides, top gainers surge up to 29% amid market volatility

Among the broader market indices, smallcaps underperformed midcaps and the main indices amid heightened volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices, and sustained selling by FIIs.

Among the broader indices, the BSE Smallcap index declined 0.5 percent, while the BSE Midcap index advanced 0.35 percent and the BSE Largecap index gained 0.4 percent during the week.

This week, the BSE Sensex added 187.95 points, or 0.22 percent, to finish at 82,814.71, while the Nifty50 rose 100.15 points, or 0.39 percent, to close at 25,571.25.

Sectoral performance remained mixed during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index rose 5.5 percent, while the Nifty Energy index gained 2.4 percent and the Nifty FMCG index added 1.7 percent. The Nifty Pharma, Healthcare, and Defence indices advanced around 1 percent each. However, the Nifty Auto, IT, and Media indices declined between 1.3 and 2.5 percent during the period.

&quot;Market sentiment remained volatile during the week, oscillating between caution and optimism. Strong buying interest in banking, financials, power, and select FMCG counters helped absorb the impact of persistent global uncertainties. Steady asset quality, stable credit growth, and clearer progress on trade discussions reinforced confidence in the domestic macro environment,&quot; said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

&quot;In contrast, IT stocks remained subdued as concerns around AI-led disruption and margin pressures weighed on investor confidence. Escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with a sharp rise in crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the US Fed’s rate-cut trajectory, briefly sparked broad-based selling. Despite these challenges, resilience in large caps, selective sectoral flows, and optimism around India’s participation in Pax Silica ensured that the market ended on a positive bias,&quot; Nair added.

&quot;The market will closely monitor the developments between the US and Iran, crude oil price movements, and global monetary signals. Although volatility may stay elevated, strong domestic macro fundamentals and a supportive demand environment are expected to provide a cushion.&quot;

&quot;The release of India’s GDP data next week will be keenly watched for its implications on earnings momentum and broader market positioning. Overall, markets are likely to trade within a range, with liquidity flows and global developments shaping short-term movements,&quot; he added.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling for the second consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹637.68 crore during the period. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹6,883.81 crore.

The BSE Smallcap index shed 0.5 percent during the week, with stocks such as Aqylon Nexus, Filatex Fashions, Transworld Shipping Lines, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, SEPC, Shoppers Stop, and Pennar Industries declining between 16–22 percent. On the other hand, VL E-Governance and IT Solutions, Novartis India, RACL Geartech, KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration, Godfrey Phillips India, Aeroflex Industries, Netweb Technologies India, Jyoti Structures, Newgen Software Technologies, Sadhana Nitrochem, and Jindal Poly Investment and Finance Company gained between 16 and 28 percent.



Where is the market headed?

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Over the next few days, higher volatility can be expected, with the index likely to oscillate in the 25,300–25,800 range. Immediate support is placed at 25,500, while immediate resistance is seen at 25,650.&quot;

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

The market is likely to consolidate next week, tracking the geopolitical development along with the signing of the India-US trade deal, India Q3 GDP data, US initial Jobless claims, and the conclusion of the AI summit.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838018" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023650_marketup_sensexup-Niftyup.jpg" alt="Market This Week" width="1280" height="720" /> Despite Thursday’s sharp sell-off, the Indian benchmark indices ended the volatile week with modest gains, amid persistent selling in IT stocks and rising crude oil prices driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838029" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221024303_bse-nsee_nifty-Sensex.jpg" alt="In this week, the BSE Sensex added 187.95 points, or 0.22 percent, to finish at 82,814.71, while the Nifty50 rose 100.15 points, or 0.39 percent, to close at 25,571.25." width="1280" height="720" /> In this week, the BSE Sensex added 187.95 points, or 0.22 percent, to finish at 82,814.71, while the Nifty50 rose 100.15 points, or 0.39 percent, to close at 25,571.25.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838027" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023804_Sensex_up_higher.jpg" alt="The Nifty Midcap index rose 0.35 percent during the week. Thermax, Indian Bank, Godrej Industries, Hitachi Energy India, Bank of India, GMR Airports, Petronet LNG, Bharat Dynamics, and Bank of Maharashtra were among the major gainers. On the other hand, Brainbees Solutions, Ola Electric Mobility, Hexaware Technologies, Persistent Systems, Vedant Fashions, and Clean Science &amp; Technology declined between 6–18 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Midcap index rose 0.35 percent during the week. Thermax, Indian Bank, Godrej Industries, Hitachi Energy India, Bank of India, GMR Airports, Petronet LNG, Bharat Dynamics, and Bank of Maharashtra were among the major gainers. On the other hand, Brainbees Solutions, Ola Electric Mobility, Hexaware Technologies, Persistent Systems, Vedant Fashions, and Clean Science &amp; Technology declined between 6–18 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838026" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023801_sensex_stocks_nifty_stockmarket.jpg" alt="The BSE Largecap index gained 0.4 percent during the week, led by advances in Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank, Union Bank of India, Cummins India, Bank of Baroda, and Hyundai Motor India. Meanwhile, laggards included Waaree Energies, Info Edge (India), Eternal, SRF, Tech Mahindra, LTIMindtree, and Swiggy." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Largecap index gained 0.4 percent during the week, led by advances in Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank, Union Bank of India, Cummins India, Bank of Baroda, and Hyundai Motor India. Meanwhile, laggards included Waaree Energies, Info Edge (India), Eternal, SRF, Tech Mahindra, LTIMindtree, and Swiggy.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838022" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023745_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="The BSE Smallcap index shed 0.5 percent during the week, with stocks such as Aqylon Nexus, Filatex Fashions, Transworld Shipping Lines, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, SEPC, Shoppers Stop, and Pennar Industries declining between 16–22 percent. On the other hand, VL E-Governance and IT Solutions, Novartis India, RACL Geartech, KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration, Godfrey Phillips India, Aeroflex Industries, Netweb Technologies India, Jyoti Structures, Newgen Software Technologies, Sadhana Nitrochem, and Jindal Poly Investment and Finance Company gained between 16–28 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Smallcap index shed 0.5 percent during the week, with stocks such as Aqylon Nexus, Filatex Fashions, Transworld Shipping Lines, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, SEPC, Shoppers Stop, and Pennar Industries declining between 16–22 percent. On the other hand, VL E-Governance and IT Solutions, Novartis India, RACL Geartech, KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration, Godfrey Phillips India, Aeroflex Industries, Netweb Technologies India, Jyoti Structures, Newgen Software Technologies, Sadhana Nitrochem, and Jindal Poly Investment and Finance Company gained between 16–28 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838021" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023741_sensex_nifty_stocknew.jpg" alt="During the week, Larsen &amp; Toubro recorded the highest gain in market capitalisation, followed by Asian Paints, Titan Company, and Axis Bank. On the other hand, State Bank of India, Maruti Suzuki India, UltraTech Cement, and Trent witnessed a decline in their market capitalisation." width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, Larsen &amp; Toubro recorded the highest gain in market capitalisation, followed by Asian Paints, Titan Company, and Axis Bank. On the other hand, State Bank of India, Maruti Suzuki India, UltraTech Cement, and Trent witnessed a decline in their market capitalisation.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838031" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221024611_sensex_nifty1.jpg" alt="Sectoral performance remained mixed during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index rose 5.5 percent, while the Nifty Energy index gained 2.4 percent and the Nifty FMCG index added 1.7 percent. The Nifty Pharma, Healthcare, and Defence indices advanced around 1 percent each. However, the Nifty Auto, IT, and Media indices declined between 1.3–2.5 percent during the period." width="1280" height="720" /> Sectoral performance remained mixed during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index rose 5.5 percent, while the Nifty Energy index gained 2.4 percent and the Nifty FMCG index added 1.7 percent. The Nifty Pharma, Healthcare, and Defence indices advanced around 1 percent each. However, the Nifty Auto, IT, and Media indices declined between 1.3–2.5 percent during the period.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838020" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023737_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling for the second consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹637.68 crore during the period. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹6,883.81 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling for the second consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹637.68 crore in this week. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹6,883.81 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789262" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031938_rupee_fall.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee snapped its two-week winning streak to settle 34 paise lower at 90.98 against the US dollar on February 20, compared with 90.64 on February 13. During the week, the domestic currency traded in a range of 90.59 to 90.99." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian rupee snapped its two-week winning streak to settle 34 paise lower at 90.98 against the US dollar on February 20, compared with 90.64 on February 13. During the week, the domestic currency traded in a range of 90.59 to 90.99.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling for the second consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹637.68 crore in this week.

In this week, the BSE Sensex added 187.95 points, or 0.22 percent, to finish at 82,814.71, while the Nifty50 rose 100.15 points, or 0.39 percent, to close at 25,571.25.

The Nifty Midcap index rose 0.35 percent during the week. Thermax, Indian Bank, Godrej Industries, Hitachi Energy India, Bank of India, GMR Airports, Petronet LNG, Bharat Dynamics, and Bank of Maharashtra were among the major gainers. On the other hand, Brainbees Solutions, Ola Electric Mobility, Hexaware Technologies, Persistent Systems, Vedant Fashions, and Clean Science &amp; Technology declined between 6–18 percent.

The BSE Largecap index gained 0.4 percent during the week, led by advances in Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank, Union Bank of India, Cummins India, Bank of Baroda, and Hyundai Motor India. Meanwhile, laggards included Waaree Energies, Info Edge (India), Eternal, SRF, Tech Mahindra, LTIMindtree, and Swiggy.

The BSE Smallcap index shed 0.5 percent during the week, with stocks such as Aqylon Nexus, Filatex Fashions, Transworld Shipping Lines, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, SEPC, Shoppers Stop, and Pennar Industries declining between 16–22 percent. On the other hand, VL E-Governance and IT Solutions, Novartis India, RACL Geartech, KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration, Godfrey Phillips India, Aeroflex Industries, Netweb Technologies India, Jyoti Structures, Newgen Software Technologies, Sadhana Nitrochem, and Jindal Poly Investment and Finance Company gained between 16–28 percent.

During the week, Larsen &amp; Toubro recorded the highest gain in market capitalisation, followed by Asian Paints, Titan Company, and Axis Bank. On the other hand, State Bank of India, Maruti Suzuki India, UltraTech Cement, and Trent witnessed a decline in their market capitalisation.

Sectoral performance remained mixed during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index rose 5.5 percent, while the Nifty Energy index gained 2.4 percent and the Nifty FMCG index added 1.7 percent. The Nifty Pharma, Healthcare, and Defence indices advanced around 1 percent each. However, the Nifty Auto, IT, and Media indices declined between 1.3–2.5 percent during the period.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling for the second consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹637.68 crore during the period. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹6,883.81 crore.

The Indian rupee snapped its two-week winning streak to settle 34 paise lower at 90.98 against the US dollar on February 20, compared with 90.64 on February 13. During the week, the domestic currency traded in a range of 90.59 to 90.99.

Markets post mild gains amid volatility; IT drags for third straight week

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838018" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023650_marketup_sensexup-Niftyup.jpg" alt="Market This Week" width="1280" height="720" /> Despite Thursday’s sharp sell-off, the Indian benchmark indices ended the volatile week with modest gains, amid persistent selling in IT stocks and rising crude oil prices driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838029" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221024303_bse-nsee_nifty-Sensex.jpg" alt="In this week, the BSE Sensex added 187.95 points, or 0.22 percent, to finish at 82,814.71, while the Nifty50 rose 100.15 points, or 0.39 percent, to close at 25,571.25." width="1280" height="720" /> In this week, the BSE Sensex added 187.95 points, or 0.22 percent, to finish at 82,814.71, while the Nifty50 rose 100.15 points, or 0.39 percent, to close at 25,571.25.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838027" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023804_Sensex_up_higher.jpg" alt="The Nifty Midcap index rose 0.35 percent during the week. Thermax, Indian Bank, Godrej Industries, Hitachi Energy India, Bank of India, GMR Airports, Petronet LNG, Bharat Dynamics, and Bank of Maharashtra were among the major gainers. On the other hand, Brainbees Solutions, Ola Electric Mobility, Hexaware Technologies, Persistent Systems, Vedant Fashions, and Clean Science &amp; Technology declined between 6–18 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Midcap index rose 0.35 percent during the week. Thermax, Indian Bank, Godrej Industries, Hitachi Energy India, Bank of India, GMR Airports, Petronet LNG, Bharat Dynamics, and Bank of Maharashtra were among the major gainers. On the other hand, Brainbees Solutions, Ola Electric Mobility, Hexaware Technologies, Persistent Systems, Vedant Fashions, and Clean Science &amp; Technology declined between 6–18 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838026" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023801_sensex_stocks_nifty_stockmarket.jpg" alt="The BSE Largecap index gained 0.4 percent during the week, led by advances in Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank, Union Bank of India, Cummins India, Bank of Baroda, and Hyundai Motor India. Meanwhile, laggards included Waaree Energies, Info Edge (India), Eternal, SRF, Tech Mahindra, LTIMindtree, and Swiggy." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Largecap index gained 0.4 percent during the week, led by advances in Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank, Union Bank of India, Cummins India, Bank of Baroda, and Hyundai Motor India. Meanwhile, laggards included Waaree Energies, Info Edge (India), Eternal, SRF, Tech Mahindra, LTIMindtree, and Swiggy.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838022" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023745_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="The BSE Smallcap index shed 0.5 percent during the week, with stocks such as Aqylon Nexus, Filatex Fashions, Transworld Shipping Lines, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, SEPC, Shoppers Stop, and Pennar Industries declining between 16–22 percent. On the other hand, VL E-Governance and IT Solutions, Novartis India, RACL Geartech, KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration, Godfrey Phillips India, Aeroflex Industries, Netweb Technologies India, Jyoti Structures, Newgen Software Technologies, Sadhana Nitrochem, and Jindal Poly Investment and Finance Company gained between 16–28 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Smallcap index shed 0.5 percent during the week, with stocks such as Aqylon Nexus, Filatex Fashions, Transworld Shipping Lines, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, SEPC, Shoppers Stop, and Pennar Industries declining between 16–22 percent. On the other hand, VL E-Governance and IT Solutions, Novartis India, RACL Geartech, KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration, Godfrey Phillips India, Aeroflex Industries, Netweb Technologies India, Jyoti Structures, Newgen Software Technologies, Sadhana Nitrochem, and Jindal Poly Investment and Finance Company gained between 16–28 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838021" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023741_sensex_nifty_stocknew.jpg" alt="During the week, Larsen &amp; Toubro recorded the highest gain in market capitalisation, followed by Asian Paints, Titan Company, and Axis Bank. On the other hand, State Bank of India, Maruti Suzuki India, UltraTech Cement, and Trent witnessed a decline in their market capitalisation." width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, Larsen &amp; Toubro recorded the highest gain in market capitalisation, followed by Asian Paints, Titan Company, and Axis Bank. On the other hand, State Bank of India, Maruti Suzuki India, UltraTech Cement, and Trent witnessed a decline in their market capitalisation.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838031" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221024611_sensex_nifty1.jpg" alt="Sectoral performance remained mixed during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index rose 5.5 percent, while the Nifty Energy index gained 2.4 percent and the Nifty FMCG index added 1.7 percent. The Nifty Pharma, Healthcare, and Defence indices advanced around 1 percent each. However, the Nifty Auto, IT, and Media indices declined between 1.3–2.5 percent during the period." width="1280" height="720" /> Sectoral performance remained mixed during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index rose 5.5 percent, while the Nifty Energy index gained 2.4 percent and the Nifty FMCG index added 1.7 percent. The Nifty Pharma, Healthcare, and Defence indices advanced around 1 percent each. However, the Nifty Auto, IT, and Media indices declined between 1.3–2.5 percent during the period.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13838020" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260221023737_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling for the second consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹637.68 crore during the period. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹6,883.81 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their selling for the second consecutive week, offloading equities worth ₹637.68 crore in this week. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying streak, purchasing equities worth ₹6,883.81 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789262" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031938_rupee_fall.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee snapped its two-week winning streak to settle 34 paise lower at 90.98 against the US dollar on February 20, compared with 90.64 on February 13. During the week, the domestic currency traded in a range of 90.59 to 90.99." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian rupee snapped its two-week winning streak to settle 34 paise lower at 90.98 against the US dollar on February 20, compared with 90.64 on February 13. During the week, the domestic currency traded in a range of 90.59 to 90.99.

Prefer PSUs in sectors with strong tailwinds, such as defence, PSU banks, power utilities, metals, Small and mid-cap companies appear to have outpaced large-caps in earnings growth in Q3, Dividend yields of large cap IT companies may be an attraction now

* Prefer PSUs in sectors with strong tailwinds, such as defence, PSU banks, power utilities, metals
* Small and mid-cap companies appear to have outpaced large-caps in earnings growth in Q3
* Dividend yields of large cap IT companies may be an attraction now

shorts/business/daily-voice-delay-beyond-march-2026-in-india-us-trade-deal-could-dampen-markets-says-bharti-axa-life-cio

* Prefer PSUs in sectors with strong tailwinds, such as defence, PSU banks, power utilities, metals
* Small and mid-cap companies appear to have outpaced large-caps in earnings growth in Q3
* Dividend yields of large cap IT companies may be an attraction now

Rahul Bhuskute, Chief Investment Officer at Bharti AXA Life Insurance, believes that the market has largely priced in the current information regarding the US trade deal.

According to him, investors are now focused on the formal signing of the agreement. While a finalized deal could provide a fresh catalyst for the markets, any delay beyond the March 2026 timeline is likely to act as a dampener.

At the current juncture, he prefers PSUs in sectors with strong tailwinds, such as defence, PSU banks, power utilities, and metals. For investors seeking value, the dividend yields offered by large-cap IT companies may also be attractive, he believes.

Do you think small- and mid-cap companies have reported stronger earnings than large caps in Q3?

On an aggregate basis, small and mid-cap companies appear to have outpaced large-caps in earnings growth in Q3. However, this performance gap is largely a function of sector composition: sectors with high EPS growth in Q3 like capital goods, construction materials, and metals &amp; mining have a higher concentration in the mid/small cap space.

Conversely, large-cap indices are more heavily weighted toward private banks and IT, which have recently seen below-average growth. Normalizing for sectors, the earnings growth seems to be similar across market caps.

Do you believe Q4 numbers will be significantly better than Q3 earnings after reading the management commentaries?

In general, corporate management sentiment turned more constructive in Q3 compared to previous periods. This optimism is anchored in a convergence of supportive factors: the implementation of GST reforms, the successful conclusion of landmark trade deals with the EU, and benign interest rate environment.

Furthermore, a robust Rs 12.2 lakh crore capex outlay in the Union Budget and improving credit growth have bolstered long-term confidence. Strategic international shifts—most notably China’s phased withdrawal of export rebates on certain products—are also creating a competitive opening for Indian businesses.

While these structural tailwinds are unlikely to translate into a significant earnings spike in Q4, they provide a strong foundation for FY27. For now, street expectations for Nifty 50 FY26 growth remain anchored at 8-9%, implying a measured Q4 EPS growth of 5-6% surpassing which should not be a tall task.

Is it better to hold mid-cap IT stocks in the portfolio rather than large-cap stocks, considering the expected growth potential and concerns about AI-led disruption?

For investors looking for growth, mid-cap IT companies have generally been more attractive versus the large-cap companies not only because of smaller base but also because of their ability to specialize in certain domains, be more agile by having shorter decision-making loops and run leaner operations.

Also, some of these players have already transitioned from a traditional service-based model to a platform-led approach, resulting in a more robust and consistent growth trajectory over recent quarters.

Furthermore, their deal-win momentum for these players remains highly encouraging, signaling a strong double-digit growth for FY27 versus high single-digit growth projected for their large-cap counterparts.

However, for investors looking for value, the dividend yields of large cap IT companies may be an attraction.

Do you rule out the possibility of a stellar rally in gold and silver from here?

The recent rally in gold and silver stems from a convergence of structural drivers: aggressive central bank accumulation, geopolitical hedging, and low US real rates. Furthermore, a growing de-dollarization narrative—fueled by high US fiscal deficits and the perceived "politicization" of the Federal Reserve—has bolstered demand.

While the duration of such top-down trades is difficult to predict, these persistent tailwinds are likely to sustain elevated volatility. Given their historical role as a proven inflation hedge, we recommend maintaining a strategic allocation to precious metals (especially Gold) within a diversified portfolio.

Do you think it is better to take a bullish view on PSU stocks, considering the dividends along with the expected capital appreciation?

Investing in PSUs requires a selective approach due to government-related policy risks and disinvestment related stock overhangs. However, we also believe that certain strong well-run PSUs are conduits to deliver key government reforms and therefore good wealth generators in certain periods.

At current juncture, we like PSUs within sectors with strong tailwinds like defence, PSU banks, power utilities and metals.

Do you think the market has already priced in all the positives related to the trade deal and is likely to consolidate until the March quarter earnings are released?

Predicting near-term market direction remains difficult due to numerous shifting variables. However, we believe the market has largely priced in current information regarding the US trade deal. Investors are now focused on the formal signing; while a finalized agreement could provide a fresh catalyst, any delay beyond the March 2026 timeline would likely act as a market dampener.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Delay beyond March 2026 in India-US trade deal could dampen markets, says Bharti AXA Life CIO

Rahul Bhuskute, Chief Investment Officer at Bharti AXA Life Insurance, believes that the market has largely priced in the current information regarding the US trade deal.

According to him, investors are now focused on the formal signing of the agreement. While a finalized deal could provide a fresh catalyst for the markets, any delay beyond the March 2026 timeline is likely to act as a dampener.

At the current juncture, he prefers PSUs in sectors with strong tailwinds, such as defence, PSU banks, power utilities, and metals. For investors seeking value, the dividend yields offered by large-cap IT companies may also be attractive, he believes.

Do you think small- and mid-cap companies have reported stronger earnings than large caps in Q3?

On an aggregate basis, small and mid-cap companies appear to have outpaced large-caps in earnings growth in Q3. However, this performance gap is largely a function of sector composition: sectors with high EPS growth in Q3 like capital goods, construction materials, and metals &amp;amp; mining have a higher concentration in the mid/small cap space.

Conversely, large-cap indices are more heavily weighted toward private banks and IT, which have recently seen below-average growth. Normalizing for sectors, the earnings growth seems to be similar across market caps.

Do you believe Q4 numbers will be significantly better than Q3 earnings after reading the management commentaries?

In general, corporate management sentiment turned more constructive in Q3 compared to previous periods. This optimism is anchored in a convergence of supportive factors: the implementation of GST reforms, the successful conclusion of landmark trade deals with the EU, and benign interest rate environment.

Furthermore, a robust Rs 12.2 lakh crore capex outlay in the Union Budget and improving credit growth have bolstered long-term confidence. Strategic international shifts—most notably China’s phased withdrawal of export rebates on certain products—are also creating a competitive opening for Indian businesses.

While these structural tailwinds are unlikely to translate into a significant earnings spike in Q4, they provide a strong foundation for FY27. For now, street expectations for Nifty 50 FY26 growth remain anchored at 8-9%, implying a measured Q4 EPS growth of 5-6% surpassing which should not be a tall task.

Is it better to hold mid-cap IT stocks in the portfolio rather than large-cap stocks, considering the expected growth potential and concerns about AI-led disruption?

For investors looking for growth, mid-cap IT companies have generally been more attractive versus the large-cap companies not only because of smaller base but also because of their ability to specialize in certain domains, be more agile by having shorter decision-making loops and run leaner operations.

Also, some of these players have already transitioned from a traditional service-based model to a platform-led approach, resulting in a more robust and consistent growth trajectory over recent quarters.

Furthermore, their deal-win momentum for these players remains highly encouraging, signaling a strong double-digit growth for FY27 versus high single-digit growth projected for their large-cap counterparts.

However, for investors looking for value, the dividend yields of large cap IT companies may be an attraction.

Do you rule out the possibility of a stellar rally in gold and silver from here?

The recent rally in gold and silver stems from a convergence of structural drivers: aggressive central bank accumulation, geopolitical hedging, and low US real rates. Furthermore, a growing de-dollarization narrative—fueled by high US fiscal deficits and the perceived &quot;politicization&quot; of the Federal Reserve—has bolstered demand.

While the duration of such top-down trades is difficult to predict, these persistent tailwinds are likely to sustain elevated volatility. Given their historical role as a proven inflation hedge, we recommend maintaining a strategic allocation to precious metals (especially Gold) within a diversified portfolio.

Do you think it is better to take a bullish view on PSU stocks, considering the dividends along with the expected capital appreciation?

Investing in PSUs requires a selective approach due to government-related policy risks and disinvestment related stock overhangs. However, we also believe that certain strong well-run PSUs are conduits to deliver key government reforms and therefore good wealth generators in certain periods.

At current juncture, we like PSUs within sectors with strong tailwinds like defence, PSU banks, power utilities and metals.

Do you think the market has already priced in all the positives related to the trade deal and is likely to consolidate until the March quarter earnings are released?

Predicting near-term market direction remains difficult due to numerous shifting variables. However, we believe the market has largely priced in current information regarding the US trade deal. Investors are now focused on the formal signing; while a finalized agreement could provide a fresh catalyst, any delay beyond the March 2026 timeline would likely act as a market dampener.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

10 out of 15 years NIFTY MEDIA has given negative returns in February.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	1,437.92	1,449.03	1,460.32	1,426.63	1,415.52	1,404.23	1,393.12
Fibonacci	1,435.19	1,440.48	1,449.03	1,426.63	1,418.08	1,412.79	1,404.23
Camarilla	1,428.85	1,430.91	1,432.96	1,426.63	1,424.75	1,422.69	1,420.64

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