Nifty LargeMid250

The market extended rally for third consecutive week ended September 19, rising nearly 0.9 percent along with strong momentum in broader markets. The healthy consistent DIIs buying and slowing down FIIs selling, and hope of strong festive season following GST rationalisation (and monetary easing) effective September 22 leading to likely better earnings growth and improving consumption from second half of FY26 onward lifted sentiment.

The coming week starting from September 22 is also expected to be positive for the market with focus on further developments with respect to India-US trade deal talks, US GDP &amp; Core PCE numbers (for cues on the Fed’s policy trajectory), manufacturing &amp; services PMI flash data for September and FIIs mood, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 soared 213 points (0.85 percent) to 25,327, and the BSE Sensex jumped 722 points (0.88 percent) to 82,626, while there was strong momentum in the broader space with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices rising 1.5 percent and 2.86 percent, respectively.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects the market to remain firm with a positive bias, aided by a potential consumption boost as the GST rate cuts become effective from September 22nd along with Navratri festivities beginning from the same day which should further push demand.

Outlook for export-oriented sectors is also likely to improve, supported by the US Fed’s recent rate cut and encouraging progress in the India–US trade talks, he said.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the upcoming manufacturing PMI will serve as a timely barometer of industrial sentiments, offering early signs of a much-awaited demand revival.

With resilient domestic fundamentals and a weakening US dollar, conditions appear favourable for renewed FII inflows, which could further boost Indian equities in the week ahead, he said.

Here are 10 key factors to watch for next week:

Fed Officials Speeches

After digesting the Fed's policy statement and updated economic projections, globally participants across asset classes will focus on the upcoming speeches by several FOMC officials. Most notably, the speech by new governor Stephen Miran, who was the only member to vote for a deeper 50-basis point cut in the September policy meeting, will be closely watch on September 22 for further policy clues.

Further, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on the following day i.e. September 23 will also be watched as in the September policy meeting's conference he emphasized that the rate cut move (first in 2025) was a “risk management” decision rather than the start of a broader easing cycle. This less-dovish tone tempered expectations of aggressive rate cuts ahead, helping the US dollar index recover (from the lowest level since February 2022) and close the week at 97.65 (up 0.03 percent), but sustained well below all key moving averages. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed 1.6 percent to 4.133 percent.

US GDP

Apart from Fed officials’ speeches, all eyes will also be on the final US GDP, core PCE prices and real consumer spending numbers for the June quarter, along with flash PMI figures and weekly jobless claims.

"If the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, comes in as expected, it could strengthen the case for rate cuts in October and December, whereas a significantly higher reading could prompt a reassessment of easing prospects for the remainder of 2025," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said.

As per the last advance estimates, the US economic reported a 3.3 percent growth in Q2-2025, against 0.5 percent contraction in Q1-2025.

Global Economic Data

Besides, the focus will also be on the manufacturing and services PMI flash numbers for September by major economies, loan prime rates by China, and Bank of Japan Monetary Policy meeting minutes.

"China is expected to keep its loan prime rates unchanged even as recent data continues to point to sluggish domestic demand and deepening signs of an economic slowdown," Kaynat said.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13564109 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250921164449_Image221092025.jpg" alt="Image221092025" width="991" height="506" />

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the HSBC Manufacturing and Services PMI flash numbers for September scheduled on September 23 will be watched by the street. In August, the Manufacturing PMI climbed to 59.3 against 59.1 in July, while the Services PMI rose to 62.5, from 60.5 in the same period.

Further, bank loan &amp; deposit growth for fortnight ended September 12, and foreign exchange reserves for week ended September 19 will be released next week on September 26.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php" target="_blank">FII Flow</a>

The market participants will focus on the FIIs mood. After looking at the FII flow of the recent week, it looks like that the sentiment somewhat seems to be improving at the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) desk, partly may be after the first rate cut delivered by the US Federal in 2025 and hope for improving in earnings and economic growth due to several measures taken by the government and RBI from second half of FY26 onward. Also, the resumption of talk between US and Indian officials for trade deal also seems to be one more reason for slowing down the FIIs selling.

FIIs net sold Rs 1,327.4 crore worth shares in the recent week (much lower than selling in previous several weeks), taking the total outflow to Rs 10,572 crore, while they maintained their inflow to primary market.

On other side, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) offset the entire FII outflow and retained their consistent strong inflow, net buying to the tune of Rs 11,177.4 crore for the week and Rs 38,324.7 crore for the current month.

"FII selling in India and buying in other markets like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea etc. has been profitable for FIIs, so far, this year. This scenario may change, going forward," VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Investments said.

Meanwhile, the rupee saw some turnaround against the US dollar, appreciating by 0.2 percent in the recent week to 88.08 after three-week losing streak, but still sustaining below the 87.97.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO</a>

As the secondary market gained strength and September quarter ending, investors will see the tsunami of 28 IPOs (initial public offerings) worth around Rs 7,500 crore next week including Rs 902 crore worth 17 public issues from the SME segment alone.

Total 11 companies - Atlanta Electricals, Ganesh Consumer Products, Seshaasai Technologies, Jaro Education, Solarworld Energy Solutions, Anand Rathi Share &amp; Stock Brokers, Jain Resource Recycling, Epack Prefab Technologies, BMW Ventures, Trualt Bioenergy, and Jinkushal Industries - will launch their IPOs in the mainboard segment, while the public issues launched by iValue Infosolutions, Saatvik Green Energy, and GK Energy will close next week.

In the SME segment, investors will see total 17 companies - Prime Cable Industries, Solvex Edibles, True Colors, NSB BPO Solutions, Ecoline Exim, BharatRohan Airborne Innovations, Matrix Geo Solutions, Aptus Pharma, Systematic Industries, Justo Realfintech, Gurunanak Agriculture India, Riddhi Display Equipments, Praruh Technologies, Bhavik Enterprises, Chatterbox Technologies, Telge Projects, and DSM Fresh Foods launching their public issues, while JD Cables, and Siddhi Cotspin, which opened their offers last week, are scheduled for closing next week.

On the listing front, the trading in total nine new companies including five - Euro Pratik Sales, VMS TMT, iValue Infosolutions, Saatvik Green Energy, and GK Energy from the mainboard segment will commence on the bourses in the coming week, while the SME platforms will see four new companies - TechD Cybersecurity, Sampat Aluminium, JD Cables, and Siddhi Cotspin - available for trading.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 is looking strong especially after the recent week's rally by negating lower high-lower low structure of last several weeks and started trading well above all key moving averages as well as the midline of Bollinger bands with bullish momentum indicators, though there was small profit booking on Friday which was on expected lines after a significant rally from 24,400 to 25,450 in current month. As long as the index stays above 25,150, the level where the breakout has seen, the trend is expected to remain favourable for bulls next week to drive toward 25,500-25,700, but falling decisively below it can make the bears active, experts said.

F&amp;O Cues

The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to face resistance at 25,400-25,500 next week as above it 25,800-26,000 are the levels to watch, with immediate support at 25,300-25,200 zone, followed by 25,000 being crucial support.

The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,400 and 25,500 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,400, 25,350 and 26,000 strikes, while the 25,300 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 25,200 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,300, 25,250 and 25,350 strikes.

India VIX

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which is known as the fear gauge, dropped to all-time closing low in the passing week, giving strong comfort for bulls and signalling less uncertain and volatile environment in the short term. It ended below 10 mark at 9.97, down 1.53 percent, extending downtrend for third consecutive week.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place next week:

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13564111 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250921164552_Image121092025.jpg" alt="Image121092025" width="1028" height="3231" />

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Dalal Street Week Ahead: India-US trade talks developments, US GDP, Fed Powell & Marin speeches among 10 key factors to watch

The market extended rally for third consecutive week ended September 19, rising nearly 0.9 percent along with strong momentum in broader markets. The healthy consistent DIIs buying and slowing down FIIs selling, and hope of strong festive season following GST rationalisation (and monetary easing) effective September 22 leading to likely better earnings growth and improving consumption from second half of FY26 onward lifted sentiment.

The coming week starting from September 22 is also expected to be positive for the market with focus on further developments with respect to India-US trade deal talks, US GDP &amp;amp; Core PCE numbers (for cues on the Fed’s policy trajectory), manufacturing &amp;amp; services PMI flash data for September and FIIs mood, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 soared 213 points (0.85 percent) to 25,327, and the BSE Sensex jumped 722 points (0.88 percent) to 82,626, while there was strong momentum in the broader space with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices rising 1.5 percent and 2.86 percent, respectively.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects the market to remain firm with a positive bias, aided by a potential consumption boost as the GST rate cuts become effective from September 22nd along with Navratri festivities beginning from the same day which should further push demand.

Outlook for export-oriented sectors is also likely to improve, supported by the US Fed’s recent rate cut and encouraging progress in the India–US trade talks, he said.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the upcoming manufacturing PMI will serve as a timely barometer of industrial sentiments, offering early signs of a much-awaited demand revival.

With resilient domestic fundamentals and a weakening US dollar, conditions appear favourable for renewed FII inflows, which could further boost Indian equities in the week ahead, he said.

Here are 10 key factors to watch for next week:

Fed Officials Speeches

After digesting the Fed's policy statement and updated economic projections, globally participants across asset classes will focus on the upcoming speeches by several FOMC officials. Most notably, the speech by new governor Stephen Miran, who was the only member to vote for a deeper 50-basis point cut in the September policy meeting, will be closely watch on September 22 for further policy clues.

Further, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on the following day i.e. September 23 will also be watched as in the September policy meeting's conference he emphasized that the rate cut move (first in 2025) was a “risk management” decision rather than the start of a broader easing cycle. This less-dovish tone tempered expectations of aggressive rate cuts ahead, helping the US dollar index recover (from the lowest level since February 2022) and close the week at 97.65 (up 0.03 percent), but sustained well below all key moving averages. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed 1.6 percent to 4.133 percent.

US GDP

Apart from Fed officials’ speeches, all eyes will also be on the final US GDP, core PCE prices and real consumer spending numbers for the June quarter, along with flash PMI figures and weekly jobless claims.

&quot;If the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, comes in as expected, it could strengthen the case for rate cuts in October and December, whereas a significantly higher reading could prompt a reassessment of easing prospects for the remainder of 2025,&quot; Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said.

As per the last advance estimates, the US economic reported a 3.3 percent growth in Q2-2025, against 0.5 percent contraction in Q1-2025.

Global Economic Data

Besides, the focus will also be on the manufacturing and services PMI flash numbers for September by major economies, loan prime rates by China, and Bank of Japan Monetary Policy meeting minutes.

&quot;China is expected to keep its loan prime rates unchanged even as recent data continues to point to sluggish domestic demand and deepening signs of an economic slowdown,&quot; Kaynat said.



Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the HSBC Manufacturing and Services PMI flash numbers for September scheduled on September 23 will be watched by the street. In August, the Manufacturing PMI climbed to 59.3 against 59.1 in July, while the Services PMI rose to 62.5, from 60.5 in the same period.

Further, bank loan &amp;amp; deposit growth for fortnight ended September 12, and foreign exchange reserves for week ended September 19 will be released next week on September 26.

FII Flow

The market participants will focus on the FIIs mood. After looking at the FII flow of the recent week, it looks like that the sentiment somewhat seems to be improving at the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) desk, partly may be after the first rate cut delivered by the US Federal in 2025 and hope for improving in earnings and economic growth due to several measures taken by the government and RBI from second half of FY26 onward. Also, the resumption of talk between US and Indian officials for trade deal also seems to be one more reason for slowing down the FIIs selling.

FIIs net sold Rs 1,327.4 crore worth shares in the recent week (much lower than selling in previous several weeks), taking the total outflow to Rs 10,572 crore, while they maintained their inflow to primary market.

On other side, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) offset the entire FII outflow and retained their consistent strong inflow, net buying to the tune of Rs 11,177.4 crore for the week and Rs 38,324.7 crore for the current month.

&quot;FII selling in India and buying in other markets like Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea etc. has been profitable for FIIs, so far, this year. This scenario may change, going forward,&quot; VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Investments said.

Meanwhile, the rupee saw some turnaround against the US dollar, appreciating by 0.2 percent in the recent week to 88.08 after three-week losing streak, but still sustaining below the 87.97.

IPO

As the secondary market gained strength and September quarter ending, investors will see the tsunami of 28 IPOs (initial public offerings) worth around Rs 7,500 crore next week including Rs 902 crore worth 17 public issues from the SME segment alone.

Total 11 companies - Atlanta Electricals, Ganesh Consumer Products, Seshaasai Technologies, Jaro Education, Solarworld Energy Solutions, Anand Rathi Share &amp;amp; Stock Brokers, Jain Resource Recycling, Epack Prefab Technologies, BMW Ventures, Trualt Bioenergy, and Jinkushal Industries - will launch their IPOs in the mainboard segment, while the public issues launched by iValue Infosolutions, Saatvik Green Energy, and GK Energy will close next week.

In the SME segment, investors will see total 17 companies - Prime Cable Industries, Solvex Edibles, True Colors, NSB BPO Solutions, Ecoline Exim, BharatRohan Airborne Innovations, Matrix Geo Solutions, Aptus Pharma, Systematic Industries, Justo Realfintech, Gurunanak Agriculture India, Riddhi Display Equipments, Praruh Technologies, Bhavik Enterprises, Chatterbox Technologies, Telge Projects, and DSM Fresh Foods launching their public issues, while JD Cables, and Siddhi Cotspin, which opened their offers last week, are scheduled for closing next week.

On the listing front, the trading in total nine new companies including five - Euro Pratik Sales, VMS TMT, iValue Infosolutions, Saatvik Green Energy, and GK Energy from the mainboard segment will commence on the bourses in the coming week, while the SME platforms will see four new companies - TechD Cybersecurity, Sampat Aluminium, JD Cables, and Siddhi Cotspin - available for trading.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 is looking strong especially after the recent week's rally by negating lower high-lower low structure of last several weeks and started trading well above all key moving averages as well as the midline of Bollinger bands with bullish momentum indicators, though there was small profit booking on Friday which was on expected lines after a significant rally from 24,400 to 25,450 in current month. As long as the index stays above 25,150, the level where the breakout has seen, the trend is expected to remain favourable for bulls next week to drive toward 25,500-25,700, but falling decisively below it can make the bears active, experts said.

F&amp;amp;O Cues

The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to face resistance at 25,400-25,500 next week as above it 25,800-26,000 are the levels to watch, with immediate support at 25,300-25,200 zone, followed by 25,000 being crucial support.

The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,400 and 25,500 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,400, 25,350 and 26,000 strikes, while the 25,300 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 25,200 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,300, 25,250 and 25,350 strikes.

India VIX

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which is known as the fear gauge, dropped to all-time closing low in the passing week, giving strong comfort for bulls and signalling less uncertain and volatile environment in the short term. It ended below 10 mark at 9.97, down 1.53 percent, extending downtrend for third consecutive week.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place next week:



Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street Week Ahead: India-US trade talks developments, US GDP, Fed Powell &amp; Marin speeches among 10 key factors to watch

Sonam Srivastava, Founder and Fund Manager at Wright Research PMS believes the downgrade cycle has already peaked and India Inc is moving into an upgrade phase.

After earnings under pressure over the last 12–18 months, the tide is turning as commodity prices have stabilised, IT order inflows are showing signs of bottoming, and financials remain robust with double-digit credit growth, she reasoned.

On the market, Sonam Srivastava believes the Nifty and Sensex can make fresh highs around Diwali, supported by festive demand, resilient domestic flows, and returning foreign capital.

Do you expect Indian equities to outperform their global peers in the coming quarters, after a period of underperformance? Could the market potentially celebrate Diwali early by hitting new highs?

Yes, we expect Indian equities to reclaim outperformance in the coming quarters. The underperformance of the last six months stemmed from elevated valuations and sustained FPI outflows as US bond yields rose. With the Fed now cutting rates and the US 10-year yield below 4%, global liquidity is turning favourable.

India offers one of the most attractive earnings profiles globally — consensus projects a 15% CAGR through FY26, compared to low single digits in China and mid-single digits in the US and Europe.

Macro stability — 6.5–7% GDP growth, moderating inflation, and a stable currency — further strengthens the case. We believe the Nifty and Sensex can make fresh highs around Diwali, supported by festive demand, resilient domestic flows, and returning foreign capital.

Do you see India Inc entering an earnings upgrade cycle, with hopes that the downgrade cycle has already peaked?

Yes, we believe the downgrade cycle has already peaked and India Inc is moving into an upgrade phase. Over the last 12–18 months, earnings were pressured by global demand weakness, IT sector slowdown, and margin compression in consumer and manufacturing due to higher input costs. That led to cuts in FY25 estimates. However, the tide is turning — commodity prices have stabilised, IT order inflows are showing signs of bottoming, and financials remain robust with double-digit credit growth.

Nifty earnings grew around 14% in FY24 and are projected to maintain 14–15% CAGR into FY26. The broader earnings base is more diversified now, with BFSI, autos, and capital goods contributing meaningfully. Given the supportive policy backdrop and global liquidity easing, this sets the stage for upgrades rather than downgrades over the coming 2–3 quarters.

Which sectors have you increased allocation to in your portfolios, following recent domestic and global developments?

We have tilted portfolios towards financials, capital goods, and consumption — both staples and discretionary such as autos, while maintaining selective exposure to industrials, materials, and export-linked plays. Financials remain the backbone of earnings growth, with private banks and NBFCs expected to sustain 14–15% credit growth and stable asset quality.

Capital goods and industrials are riding on government-led infrastructure spending — the Union Budget earmarked Rs 11 lakh crore for capex, nearly 3.4% of GDP, while private capex recovery is visible in cement, power, and manufacturing.

On consumption, softer input costs (edible oils, crude-linked packaging), GST rationalisation, and a rural recovery post-normal monsoons are improving margins and demand. We have also cautiously added exposure to select discretionary names and staples benefiting from pricing relief.

Within the BFSI space, which segments are you most optimistic about?

The BFSI sector continues to be a pillar of earnings growth, contributing nearly 35% to Nifty profits, and we see leadership here sustaining. Our strongest conviction is in private sector banks, given their strong liability franchises, double-digit credit growth, and superior asset quality metrics. NBFCs catering to housing finance, consumer lending, and MSMEs are also in a sweet spot as lower rates and rising consumption boost demand.

Insurance remains a structural growth story — penetration in India is around 3.5% of GDP compared to the global average of 7%, leaving significant headroom for growth. We are more cautious on PSBs after their re-rating; asset quality has improved, but margin pressures could weigh on incremental performance.

Do you currently hold exposure to consumer tech platform companies, which have recently been attracting significant investor interest?

Yes, we hold selective exposure to leading consumer tech names where the profitability trajectory has improved. The sector, once criticised for burning cash, has shown significant discipline. For example, Zomato reported its first full-year profit in FY24, driven by scale benefits and efficiency gains, while Nykaa and PolicyBazaar have seen steady margin improvement.

The market is rewarding platforms that combine growth with operating leverage, and we are aligned with that theme. However, valuations remain elevated, and we are cautious to avoid overpaying. We prefer businesses with strong moats — market leadership, network effects, and a clear path to free cash flow generation.

Do you believe infrastructure spending might take a backseat, even as GST rate adjustments, tax cuts, and monetary policy easing are expected to boost earnings?

We don’t expect infrastructure spending to take a backseat. Public capex has more than doubled since FY20 and is at the heart of the government’s growth strategy, particularly in roads, railways, defence, and green energy. While fiscal consolidation is a long-term goal, infra allocation remains politically and economically important and will likely continue.

In fact, private sector capex is reviving — we are seeing announcements in manufacturing, cement, and renewables. At the same time, consumption-oriented measures like GST cuts and tax relief will provide near-term demand support. Both infra and consumption will likely run in parallel, creating a multiplier effect that sustains earnings momentum across sectors.

Do you foresee a significant earnings upgrade in consumption-related stocks?

Yes, consumption looks poised for upgrades. Several tailwinds are converging — GST rate cuts on staples and packaged goods could lift volumes by 200–300 bps, rural demand is expected to pick up with improved kharif output, and lower interest rates will ease urban discretionary spending. Autos are already showing strength, with PV and two-wheeler sales trending above pre-Covid levels, while QSRs and retailers are benefiting from festive demand.

FMCG margins are improving with lower input costs, which could add 150–200 bps to profitability in FY25. Valuations remain rich in staples, but stronger earnings growth can help close the gap. Discretionary and autos, in particular, appear well-positioned for earnings upgrades in FY25–26.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: India Inc enters upgrade cycle as Nifty eyes Diwali highs, says Wright Research’s Sonam Srivastava

Sonam Srivastava, Founder and Fund Manager at Wright Research PMS believes the downgrade cycle has already peaked and India Inc is moving into an upgrade phase.

After earnings under pressure over the last 12–18 months, the tide is turning as commodity prices have stabilised, IT order inflows are showing signs of bottoming, and financials remain robust with double-digit credit growth, she reasoned.

On the market, Sonam Srivastava believes the Nifty and Sensex can make fresh highs around Diwali, supported by festive demand, resilient domestic flows, and returning foreign capital.

Do you expect Indian equities to outperform their global peers in the coming quarters, after a period of underperformance? Could the market potentially celebrate Diwali early by hitting new highs?

Yes, we expect Indian equities to reclaim outperformance in the coming quarters. The underperformance of the last six months stemmed from elevated valuations and sustained FPI outflows as US bond yields rose. With the Fed now cutting rates and the US 10-year yield below 4%, global liquidity is turning favourable.

India offers one of the most attractive earnings profiles globally — consensus projects a 15% CAGR through FY26, compared to low single digits in China and mid-single digits in the US and Europe.

Macro stability — 6.5–7% GDP growth, moderating inflation, and a stable currency — further strengthens the case. We believe the Nifty and Sensex can make fresh highs around Diwali, supported by festive demand, resilient domestic flows, and returning foreign capital.

Do you see India Inc entering an earnings upgrade cycle, with hopes that the downgrade cycle has already peaked?

Yes, we believe the downgrade cycle has already peaked and India Inc is moving into an upgrade phase. Over the last 12–18 months, earnings were pressured by global demand weakness, IT sector slowdown, and margin compression in consumer and manufacturing due to higher input costs. That led to cuts in FY25 estimates. However, the tide is turning — commodity prices have stabilised, IT order inflows are showing signs of bottoming, and financials remain robust with double-digit credit growth.

Nifty earnings grew around 14% in FY24 and are projected to maintain 14–15% CAGR into FY26. The broader earnings base is more diversified now, with BFSI, autos, and capital goods contributing meaningfully. Given the supportive policy backdrop and global liquidity easing, this sets the stage for upgrades rather than downgrades over the coming 2–3 quarters.

Which sectors have you increased allocation to in your portfolios, following recent domestic and global developments?

We have tilted portfolios towards financials, capital goods, and consumption — both staples and discretionary such as autos, while maintaining selective exposure to industrials, materials, and export-linked plays. Financials remain the backbone of earnings growth, with private banks and NBFCs expected to sustain 14–15% credit growth and stable asset quality.

Capital goods and industrials are riding on government-led infrastructure spending — the Union Budget earmarked Rs 11 lakh crore for capex, nearly 3.4% of GDP, while private capex recovery is visible in cement, power, and manufacturing.

On consumption, softer input costs (edible oils, crude-linked packaging), GST rationalisation, and a rural recovery post-normal monsoons are improving margins and demand. We have also cautiously added exposure to select discretionary names and staples benefiting from pricing relief.

Within the BFSI space, which segments are you most optimistic about?

The BFSI sector continues to be a pillar of earnings growth, contributing nearly 35% to Nifty profits, and we see leadership here sustaining. Our strongest conviction is in private sector banks, given their strong liability franchises, double-digit credit growth, and superior asset quality metrics. NBFCs catering to housing finance, consumer lending, and MSMEs are also in a sweet spot as lower rates and rising consumption boost demand.

Insurance remains a structural growth story — penetration in India is around 3.5% of GDP compared to the global average of 7%, leaving significant headroom for growth. We are more cautious on PSBs after their re-rating; asset quality has improved, but margin pressures could weigh on incremental performance.

Do you currently hold exposure to consumer tech platform companies, which have recently been attracting significant investor interest?

Yes, we hold selective exposure to leading consumer tech names where the profitability trajectory has improved. The sector, once criticised for burning cash, has shown significant discipline. For example, Zomato reported its first full-year profit in FY24, driven by scale benefits and efficiency gains, while Nykaa and PolicyBazaar have seen steady margin improvement.

The market is rewarding platforms that combine growth with operating leverage, and we are aligned with that theme. However, valuations remain elevated, and we are cautious to avoid overpaying. We prefer businesses with strong moats — market leadership, network effects, and a clear path to free cash flow generation.

Do you believe infrastructure spending might take a backseat, even as GST rate adjustments, tax cuts, and monetary policy easing are expected to boost earnings?

We don’t expect infrastructure spending to take a backseat. Public capex has more than doubled since FY20 and is at the heart of the government’s growth strategy, particularly in roads, railways, defence, and green energy. While fiscal consolidation is a long-term goal, infra allocation remains politically and economically important and will likely continue.

In fact, private sector capex is reviving — we are seeing announcements in manufacturing, cement, and renewables. At the same time, consumption-oriented measures like GST cuts and tax relief will provide near-term demand support. Both infra and consumption will likely run in parallel, creating a multiplier effect that sustains earnings momentum across sectors.

Do you foresee a significant earnings upgrade in consumption-related stocks?

Yes, consumption looks poised for upgrades. Several tailwinds are converging — GST rate cuts on staples and packaged goods could lift volumes by 200–300 bps, rural demand is expected to pick up with improved kharif output, and lower interest rates will ease urban discretionary spending. Autos are already showing strength, with PV and two-wheeler sales trending above pre-Covid levels, while QSRs and retailers are benefiting from festive demand.

FMCG margins are improving with lower input costs, which could add 150–200 bps to profitability in FY25. Valuations remain rich in staples, but stronger earnings growth can help close the gap. Discretionary and autos, in particular, appear well-positioned for earnings upgrades in FY25–26.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The broader indices are showing strong relative strength, Sudeep Shah, head, technical research and derivatives at SBI Securities said in an interview to Moneycontrol. "Their performance will be key in sustaining the market’s upward trajectory," Shah said.

He anticipates the Nifty might take a short pause, before continuing its new upward trend, as overall, market setup remains bullish.

"MCX gave a decisive breakout from its 13-day consolidation range of Rs 7,480-7,850 zone on September 17, followed by a decent buying, while Bank of India gave a double bottom neckline breakout and started moving higher, indicating that the uptrend may begin, supported by increased buying momentum," he said.

Do you think the Nifty 50 will struggle to cross the 25,500 resistance level, which seems crucial for further rallies?

The financial markets have gotten into the festive spirit a week ahead of Navratri, with the Nifty recording a strong rally. After a Symmetrical Triangle breakout, the index swiftly moved upward, finishing the week above 25,300 with gains of almost 1%. This marks its third consecutive week of growth.

Just like the devotion and resilience of Navratri, this rally has lived up to expectations, breaking out from its recent low of 24,404 to gain over 1,000 points in just 15 trading sessions. The broader market has also joined in the celebration, with the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap 100 both recording gains for 11 consecutive sessions. With such strong participation, the question on everyone's mind is how much further this rally will go.

We anticipate the Nifty might take a short pause, before continuing its upward trend. The overall market setup remains bullish, with all moving averages and momentum indicators aligning with the positive sentiment.

The 25,200–25,150 range is expected to be immediate support, as it aligns with the 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally (24,404–25,448). On the upside, a sustained move beyond 25,450–25,500 could trigger the next leg of the rally. Potential targets are at 25,750 and possibly even 26,000—a true festive delight for investors

What is your take on the Bank Nifty?

The banking benchmark, Bank Nifty, also wrapped up the week on a positive footing, notching its third straight weekly gain. From the recent low of 53,578, the index has rebounded sharply by more than 2,200 points in just 11 sessions, signaling renewed strength in banking stocks.

This recovery has lifted the index above its short- and medium-term moving averages, reflecting a clear shift in momentum. Importantly, both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs have turned upward, a bullish signal that highlights improving short-term trend dynamics.

Going forward, the index may enter a brief consolidation phase in the coming sessions, allowing it to stabilize and form a stronger base before resuming its upward move.

Technically, the 20-day EMA zone in the 55,000–54,900 range will act as a crucial support area. Sustaining above this level will be key to preserving the bullish undertone. On the higher side, resistance is placed at 55,900–56,000, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier decline from 57,628 to 53,561. A decisive move beyond 56,000 could set the stage for a fresh rally, with potential targets near 56,800 and then 57,500 in the short term.

Do you see any strength emerging in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/telecommunication-service-provider/vodafoneidea/IC8">Vodafone Idea</a>, given that the charts and technical indicators are showing a positive trend?

The stock of Vodafone Idea has staged a sharp recovery from the lows of Rs 6, and the stock is now trending in a higher-high, higher-low formation, reflecting a bullish structure. The rally has been supported by a steady increase in volumes, lending conviction to the upmove. Momentum indicators are aligned with the positive bias—RSI is at 70 and trending higher, indicating strong buying interest. The ADX is also on the rise, with the DI lines widening, signalling that the strength of the ongoing trend is improving.

Further, Bollinger Bands are expanding, highlighting rising volatility, while the price has closed above the upper band, suggesting a continuation of momentum in the near term. Overall, the technical setup remains favourable, and as long as the stock sustains above immediate support levels, it is poised to extend its rally toward higher levels in the coming sessions.

Are you bullish on <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/automobile-passenger-cars/hyundaimotorindia/HMI01">Hyundai Motor India</a>, which rallied nearly 9% in the past week?

Hyundai Motor India has delivered a breakout from a narrow range consolidation, triggering a steady upward move on the daily chart. The breakout has been accompanied by rising volumes, adding strength and conviction to the uptrend. Notably, the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band for three consecutive sessions, a sign of strong momentum and sustained bullish sentiment. Momentum indicators further reinforce the positive setup—RSI is placed at 77 and trending higher, reflecting robust buying pressure despite overbought conditions.

The MACD has also crossed above its signal line, confirming fresh bullish momentum. In addition, the stock is comfortably trading above all its key moving averages, which continue to act as dynamic support zones. Overall, the technical picture remains constructive, and as long as the stock sustains above its breakout zone, it is well-positioned to extend gains in the sessions ahead with a bias firmly tilted toward the upside.

Do you think new leg of upward movement in Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices could begin in October?

The broader market continued to outperform the frontline indices, with Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap 100 leading the charge last week. Both indices delivered a strong breakout from the Adam &amp; Adam Double Bottom pattern on the daily chart, a bullish formation that typically signals a trend reversal and continuation of upward momentum.

The breakout was accompanied by a remarkable winning streak, as both indices ended in the green for 11 consecutive trading sessions—the longest such streak since December 2024. This consistent performance highlights the strength and resilience of the broader market, supported by robust participation across mid- and small-cap segments.

From a technical standpoint, both indices are comfortably trading above their short- and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the bullish undertone. The upward slope of these averages further confirms the strength of the ongoing trend. Additionally, momentum indicators and oscillators such as RSI and MACD are also aligned with the bullish narrative, suggesting that the current momentum is well-supported and likely to continue in the near term.

Overall, the broader indices are showing strong relative strength, and their performance will be key in sustaining the market’s upward trajectory.

Which two stocks are your top picks for the upcoming F&amp;O expiry week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/miscellaneous/multicommodityexchangeindia/MCE">Multi Commodity Exchange of India</a> (MCX India)

MCX gave a decisive breakout from its 13-day consolidation range of Rs 7,480-7,850 zone on September 17, which was supported by a steady rise in the volumes and a decent follow through buying post breakout. The price has been holding above its key short-term moving averages, signalling bullish strength, while comfortably above the long-term moving averages, confirming an overall uptrend. The RSI has remained moderate around 55-60, indicating healthy momentum. Bollinger Bands are slightly expanding, reflecting increased volatility and a possible continuation of the upward move.

Compared to the previous days, recent price action shows consistent higher highs and higher lows, maintaining bullish momentum. Overall, MCX exhibits steady bullishness with momentum and volatility indicators supporting further upside potential. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 8,045-8,055 with a stop-loss of Rs 7,800. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 8,600 in the short term.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/bankindia/BOI">Bank of India</a>

Bank of India’s chart shows a classic double bottom pattern, signalling a bullish reversal after a downtrend. The stock gave a double bottom neckline breakout and started moving higher, indicating that the uptrend may begin, supported by increased buying momentum. Supporting indicators reinforce this bullish outlook. The price trades above its key short- and long-term moving averages, confirming medium and long-term upward trends. The RSI at 65 and in a rising mode, signals healthy momentum. Bollinger Bands are widening, reflecting rising volatility and strengthening trend. ADX, moving marginally above 25 confirms a strong trend is underway.

Additionally, the PSU Bank/Nifty ratio chart has shown a symmetrical triangle pattern breakout, indicating strengthening relative performance of PSU banks against the broader market. This breakout suggests Bank of India could lead the rally among PSU banks, further boosting its upside potential. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 120-122 with a stop-loss of Rs 117. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 130 in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist Talk: Sudeep Shah sees strong potential in these 2 stocks post-breakout

The broader indices are showing strong relative strength, Sudeep Shah, head, technical research and derivatives at SBI Securities said in an interview to Moneycontrol. &quot;Their performance will be key in sustaining the market’s upward trajectory,&quot; Shah said.

He anticipates the Nifty might take a short pause, before continuing its new upward trend, as overall, market setup remains bullish.

&quot;MCX gave a decisive breakout from its 13-day consolidation range of Rs 7,480-7,850 zone on September 17, followed by a decent buying, while Bank of India gave a double bottom neckline breakout and started moving higher, indicating that the uptrend may begin, supported by increased buying momentum,&quot; he said.

Do you think the Nifty 50 will struggle to cross the 25,500 resistance level, which seems crucial for further rallies?

The financial markets have gotten into the festive spirit a week ahead of Navratri, with the Nifty recording a strong rally. After a Symmetrical Triangle breakout, the index swiftly moved upward, finishing the week above 25,300 with gains of almost 1%. This marks its third consecutive week of growth.

Just like the devotion and resilience of Navratri, this rally has lived up to expectations, breaking out from its recent low of 24,404 to gain over 1,000 points in just 15 trading sessions. The broader market has also joined in the celebration, with the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap 100 both recording gains for 11 consecutive sessions. With such strong participation, the question on everyone's mind is how much further this rally will go.

We anticipate the Nifty might take a short pause, before continuing its upward trend. The overall market setup remains bullish, with all moving averages and momentum indicators aligning with the positive sentiment.

The 25,200–25,150 range is expected to be immediate support, as it aligns with the 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally (24,404–25,448). On the upside, a sustained move beyond 25,450–25,500 could trigger the next leg of the rally. Potential targets are at 25,750 and possibly even 26,000—a true festive delight for investors

What is your take on the Bank Nifty?

The banking benchmark, Bank Nifty, also wrapped up the week on a positive footing, notching its third straight weekly gain. From the recent low of 53,578, the index has rebounded sharply by more than 2,200 points in just 11 sessions, signaling renewed strength in banking stocks.

This recovery has lifted the index above its short- and medium-term moving averages, reflecting a clear shift in momentum. Importantly, both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs have turned upward, a bullish signal that highlights improving short-term trend dynamics.

Going forward, the index may enter a brief consolidation phase in the coming sessions, allowing it to stabilize and form a stronger base before resuming its upward move.

Technically, the 20-day EMA zone in the 55,000–54,900 range will act as a crucial support area. Sustaining above this level will be key to preserving the bullish undertone. On the higher side, resistance is placed at 55,900–56,000, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the earlier decline from 57,628 to 53,561. A decisive move beyond 56,000 could set the stage for a fresh rally, with potential targets near 56,800 and then 57,500 in the short term.

Do you see any strength emerging in Vodafone Idea, given that the charts and technical indicators are showing a positive trend?

The stock of Vodafone Idea has staged a sharp recovery from the lows of Rs 6, and the stock is now trending in a higher-high, higher-low formation, reflecting a bullish structure. The rally has been supported by a steady increase in volumes, lending conviction to the upmove. Momentum indicators are aligned with the positive bias—RSI is at 70 and trending higher, indicating strong buying interest. The ADX is also on the rise, with the DI lines widening, signalling that the strength of the ongoing trend is improving.

Further, Bollinger Bands are expanding, highlighting rising volatility, while the price has closed above the upper band, suggesting a continuation of momentum in the near term. Overall, the technical setup remains favourable, and as long as the stock sustains above immediate support levels, it is poised to extend its rally toward higher levels in the coming sessions.

Are you bullish on Hyundai Motor India, which rallied nearly 9% in the past week?

Hyundai Motor India has delivered a breakout from a narrow range consolidation, triggering a steady upward move on the daily chart. The breakout has been accompanied by rising volumes, adding strength and conviction to the uptrend. Notably, the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band for three consecutive sessions, a sign of strong momentum and sustained bullish sentiment. Momentum indicators further reinforce the positive setup—RSI is placed at 77 and trending higher, reflecting robust buying pressure despite overbought conditions.

The MACD has also crossed above its signal line, confirming fresh bullish momentum. In addition, the stock is comfortably trading above all its key moving averages, which continue to act as dynamic support zones. Overall, the technical picture remains constructive, and as long as the stock sustains above its breakout zone, it is well-positioned to extend gains in the sessions ahead with a bias firmly tilted toward the upside.

Do you think new leg of upward movement in Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices could begin in October?

The broader market continued to outperform the frontline indices, with Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap 100 leading the charge last week. Both indices delivered a strong breakout from the Adam &amp;amp; Adam Double Bottom pattern on the daily chart, a bullish formation that typically signals a trend reversal and continuation of upward momentum.

The breakout was accompanied by a remarkable winning streak, as both indices ended in the green for 11 consecutive trading sessions—the longest such streak since December 2024. This consistent performance highlights the strength and resilience of the broader market, supported by robust participation across mid- and small-cap segments.

From a technical standpoint, both indices are comfortably trading above their short- and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the bullish undertone. The upward slope of these averages further confirms the strength of the ongoing trend. Additionally, momentum indicators and oscillators such as RSI and MACD are also aligned with the bullish narrative, suggesting that the current momentum is well-supported and likely to continue in the near term.

Overall, the broader indices are showing strong relative strength, and their performance will be key in sustaining the market’s upward trajectory.

Which two stocks are your top picks for the upcoming F&amp;amp;O expiry week?

Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX India)

MCX gave a decisive breakout from its 13-day consolidation range of Rs 7,480-7,850 zone on September 17, which was supported by a steady rise in the volumes and a decent follow through buying post breakout. The price has been holding above its key short-term moving averages, signalling bullish strength, while comfortably above the long-term moving averages, confirming an overall uptrend. The RSI has remained moderate around 55-60, indicating healthy momentum. Bollinger Bands are slightly expanding, reflecting increased volatility and a possible continuation of the upward move.

Compared to the previous days, recent price action shows consistent higher highs and higher lows, maintaining bullish momentum. Overall, MCX exhibits steady bullishness with momentum and volatility indicators supporting further upside potential. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 8,045-8,055 with a stop-loss of Rs 7,800. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 8,600 in the short term.

Bank of India

Bank of India’s chart shows a classic double bottom pattern, signalling a bullish reversal after a downtrend. The stock gave a double bottom neckline breakout and started moving higher, indicating that the uptrend may begin, supported by increased buying momentum. Supporting indicators reinforce this bullish outlook. The price trades above its key short- and long-term moving averages, confirming medium and long-term upward trends. The RSI at 65 and in a rising mode, signals healthy momentum. Bollinger Bands are widening, reflecting rising volatility and strengthening trend. ADX, moving marginally above 25 confirms a strong trend is underway.

Additionally, the PSU Bank/Nifty ratio chart has shown a symmetrical triangle pattern breakout, indicating strengthening relative performance of PSU banks against the broader market. This breakout suggests Bank of India could lead the rally among PSU banks, further boosting its upside potential. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 120-122 with a stop-loss of Rs 117. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 130 in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The outperformance from broader indices continued in third consecutive week, adding 1-2 percent amid buying across the sectors with DII support and favourable global markets.

For the week, Nifty50 rose 213.05 points or 0.83 percent to close at 25,327.05, while the BSE Sensex index gained 721.53 points or 0.88 percent to close at 82,626.23.

BSE mid, Large-cap indices added 1 percent each, while Small-cap index jumped 2 percent.

Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) outflow extended in the 12th straight week, as they sold equities worth Rs 1,327.38 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in 23nd week, as they bought equities worth Rs 11,177.37 crore.

Among sectors, except Nifty FMCG (down 0.5 percent), all other indices ended higher with Nifty PSU Bank index added nearly 5 percent, Nifty Realty index rose over 4 percent, Nifty Defence index added 3.4 percent, Nifty Energy, Oil &amp; Gas rose 2 percent each.

"Indian equities closed the week on a firm note, supported by broad-based gains, with mid- and small-cap stocks leading the momentum. Robust domestic institutional inflows offset FII selling, cushioning downside risks and sustaining the recent rally," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

"With GST rationalisation set to take effect next week and festive demand expected to strengthen, investor attention turned toward consumption-driven sectors. Autos and real estate attracted increased buying interest, while export-oriented segments such as IT and pharma gained from improved global liquidity and progress in U.S.- India trade talks. Valuation discipline remained evident, with profit booking in overvalued counters and renewed buying in attractively priced segments like PSU banks."

"Going forward, investors will closely track key U.S. macro indicators—including GDP, jobless claims, and core inflation—for cues on the Fed’s policy trajectory. On the domestic front, the upcoming manufacturing PMI will serve as a timely barometer of industrial sentiments, offering early signs of a much-awaited demand revival. With resilient domestic fundamentals and a weakening U.S. dollar, conditions appear favourable for renewed FII inflows, which could further boost Indian equities in the week ahead," he added.

The BSE Small-cap index added 2 percent with IRM Energy, Banco Products (India), Sindhu Trade Links, Hi-Tech Pipes, Ramco System, Redington, Welspun Enterprises, Redtape, Shalimar Paints, Bajaj Consumer Care adding 15-36 percent, while Balmer Lawrie Investment, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), KRBL, KR Rail Engineering, Dreamfolks Services fell between 9-12 percent.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13562616" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920023212_smallcap.png" alt="smallcap" width="683" height="722" />

Where is Nifty50 headed?

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Indian equity markets delivered positive weekly returns amid broader strength in the global equities. Rally in the global markets was supported by the 25 bps rate cut announced by the US Fed. In India, the larger indices like Nifty 50 and Sensex 30 moved higher this week by around 1%. The midcap and small-cap index outperformed the larger peers with BSE Midcap and BSE Small-cap index posting weekly gains of 1.5-2%.

In view of positive momentum, almost all the key sectoral indices posted positive returns. BSE Realty index led with gains of 4% whereas the FMGC index was an underperformer with flattish returns.

India’s CPI inflation was 2.1% in August, as food prices contracted by 0.7%. The GST rate cuts is expected to keep the inflation trajectory under control in the next few quarters.

GST rate cut comes into effect from next week and that is expected to keep consumption and other stocks benefiting from lower GST rate in focus. Markets would continue to look for clarity on the US tariff situation and its impact on economic growth.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Nifty slipped on Friday after forming a hanging man pattern in the previous session. While the short-term trend continues to favor the bulls, a mild pullback from the current level looks possible.

On the lower side, support is placed at 25,150, below which the trend may weaken.

However, if the index manages to stay above 25,150, it could move towards 25,500. A decisive move above 25,500 may then open the road to 26,000.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Technically, this market action indicates a formation of short-term top reversal pattern. Larger degree bullish pattern like higher tops and bottoms is intact on the daily chart and further weakness from here could form a new higher bottom of the pattern. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bull candle this week which is for the third consecutive sessions.

The near-term uptrend of Nifty remains intact. Further consolidation or minor dip could be a buying opportunity by next week. Immediate support is placed at 25150 and a sustainable move above 25500 could pull Nifty towards the next hurdle of 25700 levels.

Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities

We are of the view that the short-term market outlook remains bullish, but due to temporary overbought conditions, range-bound activity may occur in the near future. Hence, buying on dips and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy for traders.

For traders, the key support zones are around 25,200/82300 and 25,150-25,100/82100-81900, while resistance levels are at 25,450-25,500/83200-83400 and 25,600/83700. Below 25,100/81900, the uptrend could become vulnerable.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Broader indices rally continues in third week; these small-caps rise up to 36%

The outperformance from broader indices continued in third consecutive week, adding 1-2 percent amid buying across the sectors with DII support and favourable global markets.

For the week, Nifty50 rose 213.05 points or 0.83 percent to close at 25,327.05, while the BSE Sensex index gained 721.53 points or 0.88 percent to close at 82,626.23.

BSE mid, Large-cap indices added 1 percent each, while Small-cap index jumped 2 percent.

Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) outflow extended in the 12th straight week, as they sold equities worth Rs 1,327.38 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in 23nd week, as they bought equities worth Rs 11,177.37 crore.

Among sectors, except Nifty FMCG (down 0.5 percent), all other indices ended higher with Nifty PSU Bank index added nearly 5 percent, Nifty Realty index rose over 4 percent, Nifty Defence index added 3.4 percent, Nifty Energy, Oil &amp;amp; Gas rose 2 percent each.

&quot;Indian equities closed the week on a firm note, supported by broad-based gains, with mid- and small-cap stocks leading the momentum. Robust domestic institutional inflows offset FII selling, cushioning downside risks and sustaining the recent rally,&quot; said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

&quot;With GST rationalisation set to take effect next week and festive demand expected to strengthen, investor attention turned toward consumption-driven sectors. Autos and real estate attracted increased buying interest, while export-oriented segments such as IT and pharma gained from improved global liquidity and progress in U.S.- India trade talks. Valuation discipline remained evident, with profit booking in overvalued counters and renewed buying in attractively priced segments like PSU banks.&quot;

&quot;Going forward, investors will closely track key U.S. macro indicators—including GDP, jobless claims, and core inflation—for cues on the Fed’s policy trajectory. On the domestic front, the upcoming manufacturing PMI will serve as a timely barometer of industrial sentiments, offering early signs of a much-awaited demand revival. With resilient domestic fundamentals and a weakening U.S. dollar, conditions appear favourable for renewed FII inflows, which could further boost Indian equities in the week ahead,&quot; he added.

The BSE Small-cap index added 2 percent with IRM Energy, Banco Products (India), Sindhu Trade Links, Hi-Tech Pipes, Ramco System, Redington, Welspun Enterprises, Redtape, Shalimar Paints, Bajaj Consumer Care adding 15-36 percent, while Balmer Lawrie Investment, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), KRBL, KR Rail Engineering, Dreamfolks Services fell between 9-12 percent.



Where is Nifty50 headed?

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Indian equity markets delivered positive weekly returns amid broader strength in the global equities. Rally in the global markets was supported by the 25 bps rate cut announced by the US Fed. In India, the larger indices like Nifty 50 and Sensex 30 moved higher this week by around 1%. The midcap and small-cap index outperformed the larger peers with BSE Midcap and BSE Small-cap index posting weekly gains of 1.5-2%.

In view of positive momentum, almost all the key sectoral indices posted positive returns. BSE Realty index led with gains of 4% whereas the FMGC index was an underperformer with flattish returns.

India’s CPI inflation was 2.1% in August, as food prices contracted by 0.7%. The GST rate cuts is expected to keep the inflation trajectory under control in the next few quarters.

GST rate cut comes into effect from next week and that is expected to keep consumption and other stocks benefiting from lower GST rate in focus. Markets would continue to look for clarity on the US tariff situation and its impact on economic growth.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Nifty slipped on Friday after forming a hanging man pattern in the previous session. While the short-term trend continues to favor the bulls, a mild pullback from the current level looks possible.

On the lower side, support is placed at 25,150, below which the trend may weaken.

However, if the index manages to stay above 25,150, it could move towards 25,500. A decisive move above 25,500 may then open the road to 26,000.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Technically, this market action indicates a formation of short-term top reversal pattern. Larger degree bullish pattern like higher tops and bottoms is intact on the daily chart and further weakness from here could form a new higher bottom of the pattern. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bull candle this week which is for the third consecutive sessions.

The near-term uptrend of Nifty remains intact. Further consolidation or minor dip could be a buying opportunity by next week. Immediate support is placed at 25150 and a sustainable move above 25500 could pull Nifty towards the next hurdle of 25700 levels.

Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities

We are of the view that the short-term market outlook remains bullish, but due to temporary overbought conditions, range-bound activity may occur in the near future. Hence, buying on dips and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy for traders.

For traders, the key support zones are around 25,200/82300 and 25,150-25,100/82100-81900, while resistance levels are at 25,450-25,500/83200-83400 and 25,600/83700. Below 25,100/81900, the uptrend could become vulnerable.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562604" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022008_bse-nsee_nifty-Sensex.jpg" alt="Despite Friday’s sell-off the Indian market extended the winning run on the third consecutive week, helping to closed above its nine-week high led by DII support, inline rate cut by Federal Reserve, rupee pullback, ahead of GST implementation next week, ignoring persistent FPI outflows, and unresolved US-India tariff issues." width="1280" height="720" /> Despite Friday’s sell-off the Indian market extended the winning run on the third consecutive week, helping to closed above its nine-week high led by DII support, inline rate cut by Federal Reserve, rupee pullback, ahead of GST implementation next week, ignoring persistent FPI outflows, and unresolved US-India tariff issues.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562606" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022140_Sensex_Nifty.jpg" alt="For the week, Nifty50 rose 213.05 points or 0.83 percent to close at 25,327.05, while the BSE Sensex index gained 721.53 points or 0.88 percent to close at 82,626.23." width="1280" height="720" /> For the week, Nifty50 rose 213.05 points or 0.83 percent to close at 25,327.05, while the BSE Sensex index gained 721.53 points or 0.88 percent to close at 82,626.23.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562608" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022231_Sensex_up_higher.jpg" alt="The BSE Large-cap Index gained 1.1 percent supported by Hyundai Motor India, Swiggy, Eternal, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Bank Of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Samvardhana Motherson International, SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services, Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank. " width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Large-cap Index gained 1.1 percent supported by Hyundai Motor India, Swiggy, Eternal, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Bank Of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Samvardhana Motherson International, SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services, Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562609" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022423_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="BSE Mid-cap Index rose 1.5 percent led by Piramal Enterprises, Rail Vikas Nigam, Bank of Maharashtra, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, L&amp;T Finance, Prestige Estates Projects. " width="1280" height="720" />

BSE Mid-cap Index rose 1.5 percent led by Piramal Enterprises, Rail Vikas Nigam, Bank of Maharashtra, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, L&amp;T Finance, Prestige Estates Projects.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562610" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022453_sensex_stocks_nifty_stockmarket.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index added 2 percent with IRM Energy, Banco Products (India), Sindhu Trade Links, Hi-Tech Pipes, Ramco System, Redington, Welspun Enterprises, Redtape, Shalimar Paints, Bajaj Consumer Care adding 15-36 percent, while Balmer Lawrie Investment, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), KRBL, KR Rail Enginerring, Dreamfolks Services fell between 9-12 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index added 2 percent with IRM Energy, Banco Products (India), Sindhu Trade Links, Hi-Tech Pipes, Ramco System, Redington, Welspun Enterprises, Redtape, Shalimar Paints, Bajaj Consumer Care adding 15-36 percent, while Balmer Lawrie Investment, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), KRBL, KR Rail Enginerring, Dreamfolks Services fell between 9-12 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562613" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022738_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="Among sectors, except Nifty FMCG (down 0.5 percent), all other indices ended higher with Nifty PSU Bank index added nearly 5 percent, Nifty Realty index rose over 4 percent, Nifty Defence index added 3.4 percent, Nifty Energy, Oil &amp; Gas rose 2 percent each." width="1280" height="720" /> Among sectors, except Nifty FMCG (down 0.5 percent), all other indices ended higher with Nifty PSU Bank index added nearly 5 percent, Nifty Realty index rose over 4 percent, Nifty Defence index added 3.4 percent, Nifty Energy, Oil &amp; Gas rose 2 percent each.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562614" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022803_bank_cards_banking_financial-services8.jpg" alt="During the week, State Bank of India added the most in terms of market value, followed by Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank. On the other hand, Asian Paints, Titan Company, Bajaj Finance lost the most of their market-cap. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, State Bank of India added the most in terms of market value, followed by Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank. On the other hand, Asian Paints, Titan Company, Bajaj Finance lost the most of their market-cap. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562615" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022825_stock1.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) outflow extended in the 12th straight week, as they sold equities worth Rs 1,327.38 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in 23nd week, as they bought equities worth Rs 11,177.37 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) outflow extended in the 12th straight week, as they sold equities worth Rs 1,327.38 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in 23nd week, as they bought equities worth Rs 11,177.37 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562603" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250215043505_rupeegain_dollar.jpg" alt="Indian rupee ended higher at 88.10 per dollar on September 19 against the September 12 closing of 88.27. During the week the Indian rupee traded in the range of 88.34-87.72." width="1280" height="720" /> Indian rupee ended higher at 88.10 per dollar on September 19 against the September 12 closing of 88.27. During the week the Indian rupee traded in the range of 88.34-87.72.

During the week the Indian rupee traded in the range of 88.34-87.72, to close higher at 88.10 per dollar.

Despite Friday’s sell-off the Indian market extended the winning run on the third consecutive week, helping to closed above its nine-week high led by DII support, inline rate cut by Federal Reserve, rupee pullback, ahead of GST implementation next week, ignoring persistent FPI outflows, and unresolved US-India tariff issues.

For the week, Nifty50 rose 213.05 points or 0.83 percent to close at 25,327.05, while the BSE Sensex index gained 721.53 points or 0.88 percent to close at 82,626.23.

The BSE Large-cap Index gained 1.1 percent supported by Hyundai Motor India, Swiggy, Eternal, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Bank Of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Samvardhana Motherson International, SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services, Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank. 

BSE Mid-cap Index rose 1.5 percent led by Piramal Enterprises, Rail Vikas Nigam, Bank of Maharashtra, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, L&amp;T Finance, Prestige Estates Projects. 

The BSE Small-cap index added 2 percent with IRM Energy, Banco Products (India), Sindhu Trade Links, Hi-Tech Pipes, Ramco System, Redington, Welspun Enterprises, Redtape, Shalimar Paints, Bajaj Consumer Care adding 15-36 percent, while Balmer Lawrie Investment, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), KRBL, KR Rail Enginerring, Dreamfolks Services fell between 9-12 percent.

Among sectors, except Nifty FMCG (down 0.5 percent), all other indices ended higher with Nifty PSU Bank index added nearly 5 percent, Nifty Realty index rose over 4 percent, Nifty Defence index added 3.4 percent, Nifty Energy, Oil &amp; Gas rose 2 percent each.

During the week, State Bank of India added the most in terms of market value, followed by Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank. On the other hand, Asian Paints, Titan Company, Bajaj Finance lost the most of their market-cap. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) outflow extended in the 12th straight week, as they sold equities worth Rs 1,327.38 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in 23nd week, as they bought equities worth Rs 11,177.37 crore.

Indian rupee ended higher at 88.10 per dollar on September 19 against the September 12 closing of 88.27. During the week the Indian rupee traded in the range of 88.34-87.72.

Market extends gains in third straight week; rupee advances

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562604" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022008_bse-nsee_nifty-Sensex.jpg" alt="Despite Friday’s sell-off the Indian market extended the winning run on the third consecutive week, helping to closed above its nine-week high led by DII support, inline rate cut by Federal Reserve, rupee pullback, ahead of GST implementation next week, ignoring persistent FPI outflows, and unresolved US-India tariff issues." width="1280" height="720" /> Despite Friday’s sell-off the Indian market extended the winning run on the third consecutive week, helping to closed above its nine-week high led by DII support, inline rate cut by Federal Reserve, rupee pullback, ahead of GST implementation next week, ignoring persistent FPI outflows, and unresolved US-India tariff issues.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562606" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022140_Sensex_Nifty.jpg" alt="For the week, Nifty50 rose 213.05 points or 0.83 percent to close at 25,327.05, while the BSE Sensex index gained 721.53 points or 0.88 percent to close at 82,626.23." width="1280" height="720" /> For the week, Nifty50 rose 213.05 points or 0.83 percent to close at 25,327.05, while the BSE Sensex index gained 721.53 points or 0.88 percent to close at 82,626.23.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562608" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022231_Sensex_up_higher.jpg" alt="The BSE Large-cap Index gained 1.1 percent supported by Hyundai Motor India, Swiggy, Eternal, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Bank Of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Samvardhana Motherson International, SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services, Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank. " width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Large-cap Index gained 1.1 percent supported by Hyundai Motor India, Swiggy, Eternal, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company, Bank Of Baroda, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Samvardhana Motherson International, SBI Cards &amp; Payment Services, Punjab National Bank, Canara Bank.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562609" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022423_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="BSE Mid-cap Index rose 1.5 percent led by Piramal Enterprises, Rail Vikas Nigam, Bank of Maharashtra, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, L&amp;T Finance, Prestige Estates Projects. " width="1280" height="720" />

BSE Mid-cap Index rose 1.5 percent led by Piramal Enterprises, Rail Vikas Nigam, Bank of Maharashtra, Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, L&amp;T Finance, Prestige Estates Projects.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562610" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022453_sensex_stocks_nifty_stockmarket.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index added 2 percent with IRM Energy, Banco Products (India), Sindhu Trade Links, Hi-Tech Pipes, Ramco System, Redington, Welspun Enterprises, Redtape, Shalimar Paints, Bajaj Consumer Care adding 15-36 percent, while Balmer Lawrie Investment, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), KRBL, KR Rail Enginerring, Dreamfolks Services fell between 9-12 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index added 2 percent with IRM Energy, Banco Products (India), Sindhu Trade Links, Hi-Tech Pipes, Ramco System, Redington, Welspun Enterprises, Redtape, Shalimar Paints, Bajaj Consumer Care adding 15-36 percent, while Balmer Lawrie Investment, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), KRBL, KR Rail Enginerring, Dreamfolks Services fell between 9-12 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562613" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022738_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="Among sectors, except Nifty FMCG (down 0.5 percent), all other indices ended higher with Nifty PSU Bank index added nearly 5 percent, Nifty Realty index rose over 4 percent, Nifty Defence index added 3.4 percent, Nifty Energy, Oil &amp; Gas rose 2 percent each." width="1280" height="720" /> Among sectors, except Nifty FMCG (down 0.5 percent), all other indices ended higher with Nifty PSU Bank index added nearly 5 percent, Nifty Realty index rose over 4 percent, Nifty Defence index added 3.4 percent, Nifty Energy, Oil &amp; Gas rose 2 percent each.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562614" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022803_bank_cards_banking_financial-services8.jpg" alt="During the week, State Bank of India added the most in terms of market value, followed by Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank. On the other hand, Asian Paints, Titan Company, Bajaj Finance lost the most of their market-cap. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, State Bank of India added the most in terms of market value, followed by Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank. On the other hand, Asian Paints, Titan Company, Bajaj Finance lost the most of their market-cap. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562615" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250920022825_stock1.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) outflow extended in the 12th straight week, as they sold equities worth Rs 1,327.38 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in 23nd week, as they bought equities worth Rs 11,177.37 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) outflow extended in the 12th straight week, as they sold equities worth Rs 1,327.38 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying in 23nd week, as they bought equities worth Rs 11,177.37 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13562603" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/09/20250215043505_rupeegain_dollar.jpg" alt="Indian rupee ended higher at 88.10 per dollar on September 19 against the September 12 closing of 88.27. During the week the Indian rupee traded in the range of 88.34-87.72." width="1280" height="720" /> Indian rupee ended higher at 88.10 per dollar on September 19 against the September 12 closing of 88.27. During the week the Indian rupee traded in the range of 88.34-87.72.

3 out of 5 years Nifty LargeMid250 has given positive returns in September.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	16,533.65	16,564.25	16,589.65	16,508.25	16,477.65	16,452.25	16,421.65
Fibonacci	16,529.64	16,542.86	16,564.25	16,508.25	16,486.86	16,473.64	16,452.25
Camarilla	16,508.18	16,513.32	16,518.45	16,508.25	16,497.92	16,492.78	16,487.65

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - Nifty LargeMid250

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