NIFTY India Mfg

Indian markets rose after Trump's positive stance on India and easing trade tensions, Sensex rose 761.50 points, Nifty up 237.65 points; all sectors traded higher, US to refrain from imposing tariffs on Europe, easing fears of a trade war

* Indian markets rose after Trump's positive stance on India and easing trade tensions
* Sensex rose 761.50 points, Nifty up 237.65 points; all sectors traded higher
* US to refrain from imposing tariffs on Europe, easing fears of a trade war

Indian equity markets rebounded sharply after US President Trump softened his stance on Greenland, eased EU trade war fears, and expressed optimism on India-US trade talks. Sensex and Nifty surged, but analysts warn overall sentiment remains fragile.

shorts/business/trumps-good-deal-receding-geo-political-tensions-trigger-nifty-sensex-turnaround

* Indian markets rose after Trump's positive stance on India and easing trade tensions
* Sensex rose 761.50 points, Nifty up 237.65 points; all sectors traded higher
* US to refrain from imposing tariffs on Europe, easing fears of a trade war

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Indian equity markets staged a sharp rebound rally in trade on Thursday, January 22, as U.S. President Donald Trump's softening stance on Greenland, a trade war with the E.U, and his optimism on India supported local sentiment.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/we-re-going-to-have-a-good-deal-donald-trump-to-moneycontrol-13784244.html">In an exclusive conversation with Moneycontrol yesterday</a>, following his address at the 56th Annual Summit of the World Economic Forum, Trump struck an optimistic tone on India-U.S. trade negotiations. “I have great respect for your Prime Minister. He’s a fantastic man and a friend of mine. We are going to have a good deal,” the US President said.

Additionally, the U.S. President moderated his views on annexing Greenland, suggesting that he would not acquire the territory through force. Instead, he agreed to a "framework of a future deal." He also walked back his decision to impose tariffs on the E.U., thus alleviating concerns of a trade war between the European bloc and America.

"Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st," he wrote on Truth Social.

The markets celebrated this development sharply. At 10 a.m., the Sensex was up 761.50 points or 0.93 percent at 82,671.13, and the Nifty was up 237.65 points or 0.94 percent at 25,395.15. All sectors traded in a sea of green, rallying between 1-2 percent, while the broader markets outperformed.

According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, the gains came following another TACO case (Trump Always Chickens Out).

"More importantly, the message that the US would “refrain from imposing tariffs on Europe” takes away the threat of a US - Europe trade war which was dragging the markets down," said Vijayakumar. "The consequent relief rally in the market today can be significant since there are about 2 lakh short contracts in the market and the market construct is right for short-covering."

However, certain analysts did caution that the "overall sentiment remains fragile amid persistent foreign fund outflows, currency weakness, and subdued risk appetite."

Global markets also staged a sharp rally overnight. The U.S. markets ended sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 588.64 points, or 1.21 percent, to close at 49,007.23. The S&amp;P 500 rose 1.16 percent to 6,875.62, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18 percent to finish at 23,224.82.

Analysts and market experts will also be watching the ongoing earnings season for further cues. As most experts consider current market valuations on the lofty side, markets are hoping for positive earnings growth to justify the premium multiples.

However, in a note, international financial services firm UBS said, "We remain underweight on India despite a stark underperformance compared to EM in 2025; on current weak nominal GDP growth trend, 2) MSCI India's fundamentals tracking weaker than the rest of EM, and a lack of clear AI beneficiaries in the listed space. Valuation premiums are still higher than usual."

A ray of hope emerges from the upcoming FTA (free-trade agreement) between EU and India. Indian equity markets are likely to view the much anticipated India–European Union free trade agreement (FTA) as a positive sentiment trigger rather than a structural game-changer, with select sectoral opportunities across textiles, services, manufacturing, aviation and pharmaceuticals, experts suggest.

Watch U.S. President Donald Trump's exclusive byte to Moneycontrol here:

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Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Trump’s ‘good deal’, receding geo-political tensions trigger Nifty, Sensex turnaround

After three consecutive sessions of losses, the Indian equity markets staged a sharp rebound rally in trade on Thursday, January 22, as U.S. President Donald Trump's softening stance on Greenland, a trade war with the E.U, and his optimism on India supported local sentiment.

In an exclusive conversation with Moneycontrol yesterday, following his address at the 56th Annual Summit of the World Economic Forum, Trump struck an optimistic tone on India-U.S. trade negotiations. “I have great respect for your Prime Minister. He’s a fantastic man and a friend of mine. We are going to have a good deal,” the US President said.

Additionally, the U.S. President moderated his views on annexing Greenland, suggesting that he would not acquire the territory through force. Instead, he agreed to a &quot;framework of a future deal.&quot; He also walked back his decision to impose tariffs on the E.U., thus alleviating concerns of a trade war between the European bloc and America.

&quot;Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st,&quot; he wrote on Truth Social.

The markets celebrated this development sharply. At 10 a.m., the Sensex was up 761.50 points or 0.93 percent at 82,671.13, and the Nifty was up 237.65 points or 0.94 percent at 25,395.15. All sectors traded in a sea of green, rallying between 1-2 percent, while the broader markets outperformed.

According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments, the gains came following another TACO case (Trump Always Chickens Out).

&quot;More importantly, the message that the US would “refrain from imposing tariffs on Europe” takes away the threat of a US - Europe trade war which was dragging the markets down,&quot; said Vijayakumar. &quot;The consequent relief rally in the market today can be significant since there are about 2 lakh short contracts in the market and the market construct is right for short-covering.&quot;

However, certain analysts did caution that the &quot;overall sentiment remains fragile amid persistent foreign fund outflows, currency weakness, and subdued risk appetite.&quot;

Global markets also staged a sharp rally overnight. The U.S. markets ended sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 588.64 points, or 1.21 percent, to close at 49,007.23. The S&amp;amp;P 500 rose 1.16 percent to 6,875.62, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.18 percent to finish at 23,224.82.

Analysts and market experts will also be watching the ongoing earnings season for further cues. As most experts consider current market valuations on the lofty side, markets are hoping for positive earnings growth to justify the premium multiples.

However, in a note, international financial services firm UBS said, &quot;We remain underweight on India despite a stark underperformance compared to EM in 2025; on current weak nominal GDP growth trend, 2) MSCI India's fundamentals tracking weaker than the rest of EM, and a lack of clear AI beneficiaries in the listed space. Valuation premiums are still higher than usual.&quot;

A ray of hope emerges from the upcoming FTA (free-trade agreement) between EU and India. Indian equity markets are likely to view the much anticipated India–European Union free trade agreement (FTA) as a positive sentiment trigger rather than a structural game-changer, with select sectoral opportunities across textiles, services, manufacturing, aviation and pharmaceuticals, experts suggest.

Watch U.S. President Donald Trump's exclusive byte to Moneycontrol here:



Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rose up to 1 percent on Thursday, tracking positive global cues and improved investor sentiment amid easing geopolitical concerns and India-US trade deal hopes.

In early trade, the Sensex jumped 873.55 points or 1.06 percent to an intraday high of 82,783.18, while the broader Nifty advanced to 25,435.75, up 278.25 points or 1.1 percent.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/pharmaceuticals/drreddyslaboratories/DRL">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories</a>, Coal India and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone were among the top gainers in the Nifty50 pack, rising up to 5 percent, while <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/lifehealth-insurance/sbilifeinsurancecompany/SLI03">SBI Life Insurance Company</a> and ETERNAL were among the major laggards, declining up to 2 percent. Market breadth was positive as about 2668 shares advanced, 871 shares declined and 153 shares unchanged.
<h3>Key factors behind market rise</h3>
1) Trump's Greenland climbdown: The sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump withdrew his threat to impose tariffs on EU countries over their stance on Greenland. Trump said he had reached the outlines of a framework with NATO on the island’s future and would not go ahead with the tariffs scheduled for February 1. The move helped ease fears of a wider trade conflict gloablly.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the withdrawal of tariff threats had removed concerns of a potential US-Europe trade war. "The consequent relief rally in the market today can be significant since there are about two lakh short contracts in the market and the market construct is right for short-covering," he said.

2) India-US trade deal hopes: Investor sentiment was also supported by optimism around India-US trade talks. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/we-re-going-to-have-a-good-deal-donald-trump-to-moneycontrol-13784244.html" target="_blank">In an exclusive comment to Moneycontrol</a>, Trump signalled optimism on India-US trade talks and said "we're going to have a good deal (with India)".
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
🚨🚨 Moneycontrol Mega Exclusive | "I have great respect for your Prime Minister. He’s a fantastic man and a friend of mine… We are going to have a good deal."
~ US President Donald Trump tells <a href="https://twitter.com/chandrarsrikant?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@chandrarsrikant</a> on the sidelines of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Davos2026?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Davos2026</a>, expressing optimism over an… <a href="https://t.co/TWGkOnhnrA">pic.twitter.com/TWGkOnhnrA</a>

— Moneycontrol (@moneycontrolcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/moneycontrolcom/status/2013999826057523535?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 21, 2026</a></blockquote>
<script src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" async="" charset="utf-8"></script>

&nbsp;
<h3><a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-firm-opening-us-asian-markets-gain-2-liveblog-13784544.html" target="_blank">Stock Market LIVE Updates</a></h3>
3) Positive global cues: Positive cues from Asian markets further aided the rally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi were trading higher, while US markets ended on a firm note overnight on Wednesday.

4) India Vix eases: The India VIX, a gauge of market volatility, fell 1.58 percent to 13.56. A lower VIX typically reflects reduced uncertainty and supports risk-taking in equity markets.

5) Rupee recovers: The rupee also recovered from record low levels, gaining 15 paise to trade at 91.50 against the US dollar in early trade. Forex traders said improved risk appetite, easing global trade concerns and a positive trend in domestic equities supported the domestic currency.

6) Gold, silver ETFs decline: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/gold-silver-etfs-tumble-up-to-11-after-record-rally-amid-easing-trump-tariff-concerns-what-lies-ahead-13785023.html" target="_blank">Gold and silver exchange traded funds (ETFs)</a> declined sharply as prices of the precious metals fell amid easing tariff concerns. Gold and silver typically move inversely to equities, and the decline in ETFs reflected a shift away from safe-haven assets towards riskier investments such as stocks, lending support to equity markets.

7) Broader markets rebound: Broader markets also rallied, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices rising over 1 percent each amid broad-based buying. The Nifty Smallcap 100 snapped a four-day losing streak, while the Nifty Midcap 100 ended a three-day decline, indicating improved market breadth and participation beyond frontline indices.
<h3>Technical Analysis </h3>
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the Nifty had failed to sustain higher levels in the previous session after meeting the 25,300 objective. He noted that while downside risks remained, the formation of a doji near the lower Bollinger band and close to the 200-day simple moving average could allow a phase of consolidation. A decisive move above 25,300, he added, could open the way for levels of 25,470–25,580.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

Sensex gains 500 pts, Nifty above 25,300: Trump's remarks on India-US trade deal among key factors behind market rise

Sensex news today: Sensex rises 750 pts, Nifty above 25,400 - Positive global cues among key factors behind market rally

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty rose up to 1 percent on Thursday, tracking positive global cues and improved investor sentiment amid easing geopolitical concerns and India-US trade deal hopes.

In early trade, the Sensex jumped 873.55 points or 1.06 percent to an intraday high of 82,783.18, while the broader Nifty advanced to 25,435.75, up 278.25 points or 1.1 percent.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Coal India and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone were among the top gainers in the Nifty50 pack, rising up to 5 percent, while SBI Life Insurance Company and ETERNAL were among the major laggards, declining up to 2 percent. Market breadth was positive as about 2668 shares advanced, 871 shares declined and 153 shares unchanged.
Key factors behind market rise
1) Trump's Greenland climbdown: The sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump withdrew his threat to impose tariffs on EU countries over their stance on Greenland. Trump said he had reached the outlines of a framework with NATO on the island’s future and would not go ahead with the tariffs scheduled for February 1. The move helped ease fears of a wider trade conflict gloablly.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the withdrawal of tariff threats had removed concerns of a potential US-Europe trade war. &quot;The consequent relief rally in the market today can be significant since there are about two lakh short contracts in the market and the market construct is right for short-covering,&quot; he said.

2) India-US trade deal hopes: Investor sentiment was also supported by optimism around India-US trade talks. In an exclusive comment to Moneycontrol, Trump signalled optimism on India-US trade talks and said &quot;we're going to have a good deal (with India)&quot;.

?? Moneycontrol Mega Exclusive | &quot;I have great respect for your Prime Minister. He’s a fantastic man and a friend of mine… We are going to have a good deal.&quot;
~ US President Donald Trump tells @chandrarsrikant on the sidelines of #Davos2026, expressing optimism over an… pic.twitter.com/TWGkOnhnrA

— Moneycontrol (@moneycontrolcom) January 21, 2026


&amp;nbsp;
Stock Market LIVE Updates
3) Positive global cues: Positive cues from Asian markets further aided the rally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi were trading higher, while US markets ended on a firm note overnight on Wednesday.

4) India Vix eases: The India VIX, a gauge of market volatility, fell 1.58 percent to 13.56. A lower VIX typically reflects reduced uncertainty and supports risk-taking in equity markets.

5) Rupee recovers: The rupee also recovered from record low levels, gaining 15 paise to trade at 91.50 against the US dollar in early trade. Forex traders said improved risk appetite, easing global trade concerns and a positive trend in domestic equities supported the domestic currency.

6) Gold, silver ETFs decline: Gold and silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) declined sharply as prices of the precious metals fell amid easing tariff concerns. Gold and silver typically move inversely to equities, and the decline in ETFs reflected a shift away from safe-haven assets towards riskier investments such as stocks, lending support to equity markets.

7) Broader markets rebound: Broader markets also rallied, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices rising over 1 percent each amid broad-based buying. The Nifty Smallcap 100 snapped a four-day losing streak, while the Nifty Midcap 100 ended a three-day decline, indicating improved market breadth and participation beyond frontline indices.
Technical Analysis 
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the Nifty had failed to sustain higher levels in the previous session after meeting the 25,300 objective. He noted that while downside risks remained, the formation of a doji near the lower Bollinger band and close to the 200-day simple moving average could allow a phase of consolidation. A decisive move above 25,300, he added, could open the way for levels of 25,470–25,580.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Live: Will Nifty break 3-day losing streak as Trump walks back on EU tariffs? | Opening Bell

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to see a strong opening on January 22, supported by positive cues from GIFT Nifty, which was trading higher at around 25,312.50.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The Indian equity market extended its losing streak for a third consecutive session on January 21 amid weak global cues, including geopolitical tensions over Greenland and a sharp sell-off in Japanese government debt. The sustained selling pressure dragged the benchmark indices below their 200-day moving averages for the first time in eight months.

At close, the Sensex was down 270.84 points or 0.33 percent at 81,909.63, and the Nifty was down 75 points or 0.30 percent at 25,157.50.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Up)

The GIFT Nifty is trading higher at around 25,312.50, indicating a gap up opening start for the day.

Asian Equities (Rise)

Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher after US President Donald Trump dropped his tariff threat against European partners, easing trade-war concerns.



US Equities (Gain)

Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday, with the S&amp;amp;P 500 posting ​its biggest one-day percentage gain in two months, as investors were buoyed by news that a framework for an agreement on ‌Greenland had been reached and the possibility of new U.S. tariffs on European allies had been averted.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also enjoyed milestone days, gaining the most in percentage terms since January 5 and December 19, respectively.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 588.64 points, or 1.21%, to 49,077.23, ‍the S&amp;amp;P 500 gained 78.76 points, or 1.16%, to 6,875.62 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 270.50 points, or 1.18%, to 23,224.83.



US Bond Yield (Up)

Yields on the 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries edged up marginally to 4.24 percent and 3.58 percent, respectively.



Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar rose to the day’s high as President Donald Trump said he would refrain from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations opposing his Greenland plan, citing a reached “framework of a future deal.”



Asian Currencies (Mixed)

Asian Currencies were trading mixed in the early Thursday trade.



Crude (Flat)

Oil prices edged up on Thursday after the U.S. president stepped back from threats to impose tariffs in his effort to seize Greenland, reducing the risk of a U.S.–Europe trade war and supporting the global economy and oil demand.



Gold (Slips)

Gold fell after US President Donald Trump withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on European nations and said a “framework of a future deal” over Greenland had been agreed.



Fund Flow Action

On January 21, Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth around Rs 1,787 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth approximately Rs 4520 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

India’s IT sector shows signs of bottoming out in Q3 FY26, India remains  fastest growing major economy in the world, Build selective positions in FMCG, consumer durables, automobiles & retail

* India’s IT sector shows signs of bottoming out in Q3 FY26
* India remains  fastest growing major economy in the world
* Build selective positions in FMCG, consumer durables, automobiles & retail

shorts/business/daily-voice-sustaining-high-capex-on-hard-infrastructure-digital-systems-advanced-manufacturing-essential-to-drive-7-8-gdp-growth-says-lighthouse-s-prosenjit-ganguly

* India’s IT sector shows signs of bottoming out in Q3 FY26
* India remains  fastest growing major economy in the world
* Build selective positions in FMCG, consumer durables, automobiles & retail

According to Prosenjit Ganguly, the Principal Officer and Head of Advisory at Lighthouse Canton, the sustaining high capital expenditure on hard infrastructure, digital systems and advanced manufacturing is essential to drive 7-8% GDP growth.

Targeted measures in the budget for job creation, MSME resilience, renewable energy scalability, EVs, and defence manufacturing will address domestic demand and global competitiveness, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Further, he is of the view that policy makers are cognizant of consumption-boosting measures required in light of patchy urban demand &amp; resilient rural recovery. These measures could include continued rationalization of income tax slabs, higher standard deductions, rural income support, &amp; Agri-infrastructure investments to lift disposable incomes, he said.

If you were the finance minister, what would be your agenda while framing the Union Budget for 2026?

The agenda for Budget 2026 for us should get anchored to ensure high-quality growth that is resilient, inclusive, and investment led - without sacrificing fiscal credibility &amp; quality of spending. This is key to sustaining economic momentum amid low inflation and global uncertainties.

Achieving or bettering the 4.4% fiscal deficit target remains critical in order to signal overachievement and stabilize bond yields. This would support lower borrowing costs and attracts foreign investment. Sustaining high capital expenditure on hard infrastructure, digital systems and advanced manufacturing is essential to drive 7-8% GDP growth.

Targeted measures for job creation, MSME resilience, renewable energy scalability, EVs, and defence manufacturing will address domestic demand and global competitiveness.

Do you expect the government to announce additional measures to boost consumption in Budget? If yes, are you increasing your exposure to the consumption segment?

We expect continuity of policy measures however it may or may not be a part of upcoming budget. Policy makers are cognizant of consumption-boosting measures required in light of patchy urban demand &amp; resilient rural recovery. These measures could include continued rationalization of income tax slabs, higher standard deductions, rural income support, &amp; Agri-infrastructure investments to lift disposable incomes.

Credit support to uplift farm households and informal sector demand will further strengthen rural consumption. The government is balancing fiscal discipline with stimulus, so measures could be targeted rather than broad-based.

We continue to watch &amp; build selective positions in sectors such as FMCG, consumer durables, automobiles &amp; retail which are eventually beneficiaries. Within these segments, we prefer companies with strong margins, pricing power, earnings durability &amp; robust balance sheets.

Do you see India remaining a stable economy going forward despite geopolitical headwinds and potential trade tariff shocks?

India remains the fastest growing major economy in the world with multiple tailwinds fuelling the growth path. Recent GDP print is a validation of underlying macro led solidity amidst geopolitical headwinds, protectionism led policy distortions thus impacting near term trajectory. We believe India has managed the crisis reasonably well &amp; major part of the turbulence is behind us. Timely policy measures have ensured opening up of other critical markets, well negotiated Free Trade Agreements (FTA) &amp; closure of trade treaties.

We expect overall growth trajectory will continue to be well supported &amp; tread a path of above par economic growth irrespective of intermittent shocks with respect to geopolitical or tariff led headwinds which may at its worst lead to short term deviations.

Do you believe the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to hurt market sentiment but will not materially alter underlying fundamentals?

India’s exports to the US accounted for roughly 2% of their GDP, which is significantly lower than other Asian peers. In fact, if one excludes key sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals which aren’t part of the tariff ambit, the share falls below 1.5% of GDP. Hence, at an aggregate level, ongoing uncertainty with respect to the tariffs carries limited impact.

With regards to sentiments, considering US continues to remain one of India’s largest export destinations (accounting for roughly 18-19% of overall export volumes) and the outsized impact of tariffs on certain traditional sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, iron and steel. Thus, market sentiments have behaved on expected lines.

We are of the view that, tariff led issues will get addressed &amp; mid path will eventually be agreed upon at some juncture in this year. Underlying pain has been well absorbed so far, policy measures have responded well, INR weakening has helped export competitiveness with newer trade destinations opening up. Growth projections have accounted much of this turmoil. Markets have gone through time corrections &amp; consolidated. India must deliver on earnings now.

Do you expect the FPI flow to reverse this year?

Foreign investors’ share of Indian equities has indeed fallen to multi-year lows; about 16.9% as of September 2025, the lowest in over 15 years. This was at the back of intensified selling which saw heavy outflows of nearly Rs 1.66 lakh crore in 2025. By contrast, domestic institutions have been heavy buyers, cushioning the market. Selling was broad-based, though IT stocks saw disproportionate pressure as nearly half of 2025’s FPI outflows were from IT, partly on U.S. macro woes.

We believe this could very well reverse given weakening INR, emanating concerns around AI led bubble, stable macro standing &amp; expectations around earnings rebounding for India as we head into 2026. Valuations at large have moderated &amp; appear well placed. The positioning of the market has meaningfully improved. The key risk, however, is a prolonged risk-off environment that keeps foreign investors wary.

Do you foresee healthy double-digit credit growth this year and next? Are you a strong buyer in the banking space, given that bank valuations are below their historical averages?

Absolutely. One can see the upward trajectory of credit growth which appears to be on a strong footing. This is fuelled by robust retail and MSME loan demand alongside a nascent pick-up in corporate borrowing. We expect continuity of this given policy thrust and measures to boost consumptions which is likely to kick-in with a lag.

Deposit growth has lagged, prompting banks to compete for funds, which could narrow NIMs from recent peaks. Even though, sector fundamentals are strong: asset quality is at a multi-decade best (gross NPAs ~2.1% by September 2025) and credit costs are low.

Bank valuations too are undemanding as many frontline banks trade below their historical P/B multiples after FPI selling. Double-digit loan growth and benign credit costs could support respectable earnings, suggesting upside if valuation mean-reversion occurs. However, funding constraints (slow deposits) and any macro downturn (or pockets of unsecured loan stress) could cap growth and pressure margins, warranting a selective and a neutral stance.

Are you confident about an improvement in earnings growth in the IT sector in the upcoming quarters, especially after reviewing the Q3 results?

India’s IT sector showed signs of bottoming out in Q3 FY26 (December 2025). Major firms delivered mid-single digit revenue growth. Q3 earnings were marginally better than expected, though one-off labour cost provisions dented profits. Notably, Infosys raised its FY26 revenue growth guidance to ~3–3.5% (from ~2–3%) after reporting 8.9% YoY sales growth, indicating improving demand visibility.

Order pipelines and deal wins (including smaller, shorter AI-led projects) have been encouraging, and management commentaries suggest clients are gradually resuming discretionary tech spending. We expect a measured earnings recovery over the next 2–4 quarters helped by large deal ramp-ups, cost controls and new digital/AI opportunities rather than a sharp rebound.

However, confidence as of now is tempered by lingering macro headwinds. US/Europe IT budgets remain cautious &amp; any worsening global growth could delay the pickup. For now, downside risks in terms of prolonged client spending freezes or geopolitical uncertainties) keep the outlook guarded.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Sustaining high capex on hard infrastructure, digital systems, advanced manufacturing essential to drive 7-8% GDP growth, says Lighthouse's Prosenjit Ganguly

According to Prosenjit Ganguly, the Principal Officer and Head of Advisory at Lighthouse Canton, the sustaining high capital expenditure on hard infrastructure, digital systems and advanced manufacturing is essential to drive 7-8% GDP growth.

Targeted measures in the budget for job creation, MSME resilience, renewable energy scalability, EVs, and defence manufacturing will address domestic demand and global competitiveness, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Further, he is of the view that policy makers are cognizant of consumption-boosting measures required in light of patchy urban demand &amp;amp; resilient rural recovery. These measures could include continued rationalization of income tax slabs, higher standard deductions, rural income support, &amp;amp; Agri-infrastructure investments to lift disposable incomes, he said.

If you were the finance minister, what would be your agenda while framing the Union Budget for 2026?

The agenda for Budget 2026 for us should get anchored to ensure high-quality growth that is resilient, inclusive, and investment led - without sacrificing fiscal credibility &amp;amp; quality of spending. This is key to sustaining economic momentum amid low inflation and global uncertainties.

Achieving or bettering the 4.4% fiscal deficit target remains critical in order to signal overachievement and stabilize bond yields. This would support lower borrowing costs and attracts foreign investment. Sustaining high capital expenditure on hard infrastructure, digital systems and advanced manufacturing is essential to drive 7-8% GDP growth.

Targeted measures for job creation, MSME resilience, renewable energy scalability, EVs, and defence manufacturing will address domestic demand and global competitiveness.

Do you expect the government to announce additional measures to boost consumption in Budget? If yes, are you increasing your exposure to the consumption segment?

We expect continuity of policy measures however it may or may not be a part of upcoming budget. Policy makers are cognizant of consumption-boosting measures required in light of patchy urban demand &amp;amp; resilient rural recovery. These measures could include continued rationalization of income tax slabs, higher standard deductions, rural income support, &amp;amp; Agri-infrastructure investments to lift disposable incomes.

Credit support to uplift farm households and informal sector demand will further strengthen rural consumption. The government is balancing fiscal discipline with stimulus, so measures could be targeted rather than broad-based.

We continue to watch &amp;amp; build selective positions in sectors such as FMCG, consumer durables, automobiles &amp;amp; retail which are eventually beneficiaries. Within these segments, we prefer companies with strong margins, pricing power, earnings durability &amp;amp; robust balance sheets.

Do you see India remaining a stable economy going forward despite geopolitical headwinds and potential trade tariff shocks?

India remains the fastest growing major economy in the world with multiple tailwinds fuelling the growth path. Recent GDP print is a validation of underlying macro led solidity amidst geopolitical headwinds, protectionism led policy distortions thus impacting near term trajectory. We believe India has managed the crisis reasonably well &amp;amp; major part of the turbulence is behind us. Timely policy measures have ensured opening up of other critical markets, well negotiated Free Trade Agreements (FTA) &amp;amp; closure of trade treaties.

We expect overall growth trajectory will continue to be well supported &amp;amp; tread a path of above par economic growth irrespective of intermittent shocks with respect to geopolitical or tariff led headwinds which may at its worst lead to short term deviations.

Do you believe the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs continues to hurt market sentiment but will not materially alter underlying fundamentals?

India’s exports to the US accounted for roughly 2% of their GDP, which is significantly lower than other Asian peers. In fact, if one excludes key sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals which aren’t part of the tariff ambit, the share falls below 1.5% of GDP. Hence, at an aggregate level, ongoing uncertainty with respect to the tariffs carries limited impact.

With regards to sentiments, considering US continues to remain one of India’s largest export destinations (accounting for roughly 18-19% of overall export volumes) and the outsized impact of tariffs on certain traditional sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, iron and steel. Thus, market sentiments have behaved on expected lines.

We are of the view that, tariff led issues will get addressed &amp;amp; mid path will eventually be agreed upon at some juncture in this year. Underlying pain has been well absorbed so far, policy measures have responded well, INR weakening has helped export competitiveness with newer trade destinations opening up. Growth projections have accounted much of this turmoil. Markets have gone through time corrections &amp;amp; consolidated. India must deliver on earnings now.

Do you expect the FPI flow to reverse this year?

Foreign investors’ share of Indian equities has indeed fallen to multi-year lows; about 16.9% as of September 2025, the lowest in over 15 years. This was at the back of intensified selling which saw heavy outflows of nearly Rs 1.66 lakh crore in 2025. By contrast, domestic institutions have been heavy buyers, cushioning the market. Selling was broad-based, though IT stocks saw disproportionate pressure as nearly half of 2025’s FPI outflows were from IT, partly on U.S. macro woes.

We believe this could very well reverse given weakening INR, emanating concerns around AI led bubble, stable macro standing &amp;amp; expectations around earnings rebounding for India as we head into 2026. Valuations at large have moderated &amp;amp; appear well placed. The positioning of the market has meaningfully improved. The key risk, however, is a prolonged risk-off environment that keeps foreign investors wary.

Do you foresee healthy double-digit credit growth this year and next? Are you a strong buyer in the banking space, given that bank valuations are below their historical averages?

Absolutely. One can see the upward trajectory of credit growth which appears to be on a strong footing. This is fuelled by robust retail and MSME loan demand alongside a nascent pick-up in corporate borrowing. We expect continuity of this given policy thrust and measures to boost consumptions which is likely to kick-in with a lag.

Deposit growth has lagged, prompting banks to compete for funds, which could narrow NIMs from recent peaks. Even though, sector fundamentals are strong: asset quality is at a multi-decade best (gross NPAs ~2.1% by September 2025) and credit costs are low.

Bank valuations too are undemanding as many frontline banks trade below their historical P/B multiples after FPI selling. Double-digit loan growth and benign credit costs could support respectable earnings, suggesting upside if valuation mean-reversion occurs. However, funding constraints (slow deposits) and any macro downturn (or pockets of unsecured loan stress) could cap growth and pressure margins, warranting a selective and a neutral stance.

Are you confident about an improvement in earnings growth in the IT sector in the upcoming quarters, especially after reviewing the Q3 results?

India’s IT sector showed signs of bottoming out in Q3 FY26 (December 2025). Major firms delivered mid-single digit revenue growth. Q3 earnings were marginally better than expected, though one-off labour cost provisions dented profits. Notably, Infosys raised its FY26 revenue growth guidance to ~3–3.5% (from ~2–3%) after reporting 8.9% YoY sales growth, indicating improving demand visibility.

Order pipelines and deal wins (including smaller, shorter AI-led projects) have been encouraging, and management commentaries suggest clients are gradually resuming discretionary tech spending. We expect a measured earnings recovery over the next 2–4 quarters helped by large deal ramp-ups, cost controls and new digital/AI opportunities rather than a sharp rebound.

However, confidence as of now is tempered by lingering macro headwinds. US/Europe IT budgets remain cautious &amp;amp; any worsening global growth could delay the pickup. For now, downside risks in terms of prolonged client spending freezes or geopolitical uncertainties) keep the outlook guarded.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

1 out of 5 years NIFTY INDIA MFG has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	14,903.33	15,046.82	15,202.88	14,747.27	14,603.78	14,447.72	14,304.23
Fibonacci	14,861.69	14,932.39	15,046.82	14,747.27	14,632.84	14,562.14	14,447.72
Camarilla	14,787.31	14,814.77	14,842.23	14,747.27	14,732.39	14,704.93	14,677.47

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