NIFTY FMCG

Short-term moving averages trended down, Momentum indicators showing sell signal, elevated VIX signalling caution, Convincing fall below 24,900 can open door for 24,600–24,500, Immediate resistance is placed at 25,160, followed by 25,350–25,450

* Short-term moving averages trended down
* Momentum indicators showing sell signal, elevated VIX signalling caution
* Convincing fall below 24,900 can open door for 24,600–24,500
* Immediate resistance is placed at 25,160, followed by 25,350–25,450

shorts/business/trade-setup-for-january-27-top-15-things-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-2

* Short-term moving averages trended down
* Momentum indicators showing sell signal, elevated VIX signalling caution
* Convincing fall below 24,900 can open door for 24,600–24,500
* Immediate resistance is placed at 25,160, followed by 25,350–25,450

The Nifty 50 could not see follow-up buying and shed nearly 1 percent on January 23, falling decisively below the 200 DEMA, accompanied by above-average volumes. Short-term moving averages trended down, with momentum indicators showing a sell signal and an elevated VIX signalling caution. Experts expect the benchmark index to consolidate, with support at the previous week’s low of 24,900. A convincing fall below this level can open the door for 24,600–24,500, which would act as a crucial support zone. On the higher side, the immediate resistance is placed at 25,160, followed by 25,350–25,450, which remains a key hurdle, experts said.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790689 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112357_Image625012027.jpg" alt="Image625012027" width="1281" height="646" />

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html" target="_blank">Nifty 50</a> (25,049)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,264, 25,340, and 25,463

Support based on pivot points: 25,017, 24,941, and 24,818

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts after neutral candlestick pattern formation in the previous couple of sessions, indicating weakness. With Friday’s correction, the index traded below all key moving averages, with short-term moving averages trending downward. The momentum indicators maintained a sell signal, with the RSI at 29.12 (oversold zone), while the MACD remained below the signal line as well as the zero line, with weakness in the histogram. All this indicates continued bearish momentum and limited upside in the near term.

2) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-bank-23.html" target="_blank">Bank Nifty</a> (58,473)

Resistance based on pivot points: 59,142, 59,391, and 59,794

Support based on pivot points: 58,337, 58,088, and 57,686

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,366, 59,620

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 57,800, 56,988

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also reported a long red candle on the daily timeframe following Doji candlestick pattern formation, signalling control of bears. The index decisively broke the 58,800 zone, which had acted as a support multiple times in the past, and closed below the lower Bollinger Bands. The index fell below the 50-day EMA, with short-term moving averages trending downward. The momentum indicators also weakened, with the RSI falling to 38.98 and the MACD declining below the zero line with further weakness in the histogram. All this indicates sustained selling pressure and a bearish bias in the short term.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790691 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112505_Image725012026.jpg" alt="Image725012026" width="1281" height="646" />

3) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,500 strike (with 1.68 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,300 strike (1.32 crore contracts) and 25,400 strike (1.13 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,300 strike, which saw an addition of 73.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,200 and 25,500 strikes, which added 61.72 lakh and 54.08 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 24,650 strike, which shed 14,300 contracts, followed by the 24,600 and 24,550 strikes, which shed 11,505 and 8,840 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790692 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112601_Image1025012026.jpg" alt="Image1025012026" width="1259" height="338" />

4) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the 24,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 88.96 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,000 strike (76.8 lakh contracts) and the 24,700 strike (68.06 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 24,700 strike, which saw an addition of 21.93 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,600 and 25,050 strikes, which added 15.83 lakh and 8.22 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,200 strike, which shed 41.08 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,000 and 25,300 strikes, which shed 23.75 lakh and 18.43 lakh contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790693 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112631_Image1125012026.jpg" alt="Image1125012026" width="1253" height="338" />

5) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 60,000 strike, with 19.01 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 59,500 strike (13.98 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (11.29 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 59,200 strike (with the addition of 4.63 lakh contracts), followed by the 59,000 strike (4.25 lakh contracts) and 59,500 strike (3.51 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 60,000 strike, which shed 1.4 lakh contracts, followed by the 57,000 and 59,700 strikes which shed 10,830 and 5,520 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790694 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112704_Image1225012026.jpg" alt="Image1225012026" width="1254" height="344" />

6) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the 58,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 8.71 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 58,500 strike (8.03 lakh contracts) and the 57,000 strike (6.06 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 57,500 strike (which added 1.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 57,800 strike (1.59 lakh contracts) and the 58,400 strike (1.12 lakh contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 59,000 strike, which shed 4.36 lakh contracts, followed by the 59,500 and 58,900 strikes, which shed 2.32 lakh and 1.5 lakh contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790695 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112739_Image1325012026.jpg" alt="Image1325012026" width="1263" height="341" />

7) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Funds Flow (Rs crore)</a>

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790697 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112810_Image1425012026.jpg" alt="Image1425012026" width="1196" height="418" />

8) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Put-Call Ratio</a>

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, fell to 0.7 on January 23, compared to 0.87 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790698 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112841_Image825012026.jpg" alt="Image825012026" width="1231" height="502" />

9) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/india-vix-36.html" target="_blank">India VIX</a>

The India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, rallied 6.31 percent to 14.19, the highest closing level since June 19, 2025. Short- and medium-term moving averages trended upward, signalling further uncertainty and caution for bulls.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790700 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112912_Image925012026.jpg" alt="Image925012026" width="1281" height="646" />

10) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Build-up (9 Stocks)</a>

A long build-up was seen in 9 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790701 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126112938_Image1525012026.jpg" alt="Image1525012026" width="554" height="214" />

11) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Unwinding (112 Stocks)</a>

112 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790702 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126113003_Image1625012026.jpg" alt="Image1625012026" width="550" height="235" />

12) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short Build-up (72 Stocks)</a>

72 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790703 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126113030_Image1725012026.jpg" alt="Image1725012026" width="558" height="235" />

13) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short-Covering (20 Stocks)</a>

20 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790704 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126113054_Image1825012026.jpg" alt="Image1825012026" width="561" height="235" />

14) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">High Delivery Trades</a>

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790707 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260126113124_Image1925012026.jpg" alt="Image1925012026" width="734" height="235" />

15) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Stocks Under F&amp;O Ban</a>

Securities banned under the F&amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;O ban: Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;O ban: Bandhan Bank

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

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Trade setup for January 27: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

The Nifty 50 could not see follow-up buying and shed nearly 1 percent on January 23, falling decisively below the 200 DEMA, accompanied by above-average volumes. Short-term moving averages trended down, with momentum indicators showing a sell signal and an elevated VIX signalling caution. Experts expect the benchmark index to consolidate, with support at the previous week’s low of 24,900. A convincing fall below this level can open the door for 24,600–24,500, which would act as a crucial support zone. On the higher side, the immediate resistance is placed at 25,160, followed by 25,350–25,450, which remains a key hurdle, experts said.



Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,049)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,264, 25,340, and 25,463

Support based on pivot points: 25,017, 24,941, and 24,818

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts after neutral candlestick pattern formation in the previous couple of sessions, indicating weakness. With Friday’s correction, the index traded below all key moving averages, with short-term moving averages trending downward. The momentum indicators maintained a sell signal, with the RSI at 29.12 (oversold zone), while the MACD remained below the signal line as well as the zero line, with weakness in the histogram. All this indicates continued bearish momentum and limited upside in the near term.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (58,473)

Resistance based on pivot points: 59,142, 59,391, and 59,794

Support based on pivot points: 58,337, 58,088, and 57,686

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,366, 59,620

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 57,800, 56,988

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also reported a long red candle on the daily timeframe following Doji candlestick pattern formation, signalling control of bears. The index decisively broke the 58,800 zone, which had acted as a support multiple times in the past, and closed below the lower Bollinger Bands. The index fell below the 50-day EMA, with short-term moving averages trending downward. The momentum indicators also weakened, with the RSI falling to 38.98 and the MACD declining below the zero line with further weakness in the histogram. All this indicates sustained selling pressure and a bearish bias in the short term.



3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,500 strike (with 1.68 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,300 strike (1.32 crore contracts) and 25,400 strike (1.13 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,300 strike, which saw an addition of 73.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,200 and 25,500 strikes, which added 61.72 lakh and 54.08 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 24,650 strike, which shed 14,300 contracts, followed by the 24,600 and 24,550 strikes, which shed 11,505 and 8,840 contracts, respectively.



4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 24,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 88.96 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,000 strike (76.8 lakh contracts) and the 24,700 strike (68.06 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 24,700 strike, which saw an addition of 21.93 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,600 and 25,050 strikes, which added 15.83 lakh and 8.22 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,200 strike, which shed 41.08 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,000 and 25,300 strikes, which shed 23.75 lakh and 18.43 lakh contracts, respectively.



5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 60,000 strike, with 19.01 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 59,500 strike (13.98 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (11.29 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 59,200 strike (with the addition of 4.63 lakh contracts), followed by the 59,000 strike (4.25 lakh contracts) and 59,500 strike (3.51 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 60,000 strike, which shed 1.4 lakh contracts, followed by the 57,000 and 59,700 strikes which shed 10,830 and 5,520 contracts, respectively.



6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 58,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 8.71 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 58,500 strike (8.03 lakh contracts) and the 57,000 strike (6.06 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 57,500 strike (which added 1.83 lakh contracts), followed by the 57,800 strike (1.59 lakh contracts) and the 58,400 strike (1.12 lakh contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 59,000 strike, which shed 4.36 lakh contracts, followed by the 59,500 and 58,900 strikes, which shed 2.32 lakh and 1.5 lakh contracts, respectively.



7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)



8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, fell to 0.7 on January 23, compared to 0.87 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.



9) India VIX

The India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, rallied 6.31 percent to 14.19, the highest closing level since June 19, 2025. Short- and medium-term moving averages trended upward, signalling further uncertainty and caution for bulls.



10) Long Build-up (9 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 9 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.



11) Long Unwinding (112 Stocks)

112 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.



12) Short Build-up (72 Stocks)

72 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.



13) Short-Covering (20 Stocks)

20 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.



14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.



15) Stocks Under F&amp;amp;O Ban

Securities banned under the F&amp;amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;amp;O ban: Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;amp;O ban: Bandhan Bank

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) will remain closed on January 26 on account of Republic Day.

Trading in equities, equity derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives, and interest rate derivatives will remain shut for the day on both the BSE and the NSE.

The commodity derivatives segment will also remain closed for the day.

Trading on the NSE and the BSE will resume on January 27 (Tuesday).

The market ended lower in a volatile session on January 23, as selling pressure was seen across sectors.

At close, the Sensex was down 769.67 points or 0.94 percent at 81,537.70, and the Nifty was down 241.25 points or 0.95 percent at 25,048.65.

The broader market underperformed the benchmarks, with the BSE midcap index falling 1.5 percent and the smallcap index down over 2 percent.

Biggest Nifty losers were Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Eternal, Interglobe Aviation, Cipla, while gainers included Dr Reddy's Labs, Tech Mahindra, ONGC, Hindalco, HUL.

All the sectoral indices ended in the red with capital goods, power, realty, PSU Bank, and media down 2-3%.

"After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness in the early part of the session. The weakness intensified in the mid to later part, and Nifty finally closed at the lows," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

"A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, which indicates a formation of a lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative, and one may expect Nifty to slide below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched is around 24,600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels," he added.

On Friday, the Indian rupee ended at a record low at 91.96 per dollar versus Thursday's close of 91.62.

"The Indian rupee succumbed to a record low, bucking under the weight of voracious dollar demand from importers and corporates ahead of the long weekend and the upcoming Union Budget," said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

"This fragility intensified as domestic equities faced a fresh bout of liquidation, erasing Thursday’s tentative recovery."

"The outlook for spot USDINR remains resolutely bullish; we anticipate the pair may eclipse the psychological 92 threshold while finding the support at 91.10," he said.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Stock market holiday today: BSE, NSE to remain shut for Republic Day

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) will remain closed on January 26 on account of Republic Day.

Trading in equities, equity derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives, and interest rate derivatives will remain shut for the day on both the BSE and the NSE.

The commodity derivatives segment will also remain closed for the day.

Trading on the NSE and the BSE will resume on January 27 (Tuesday).

The market ended lower in a volatile session on January 23, as selling pressure was seen across sectors.

At close, the Sensex was down 769.67 points or 0.94 percent at 81,537.70, and the Nifty was down 241.25 points or 0.95 percent at 25,048.65.

The broader market underperformed the benchmarks, with the BSE midcap index falling 1.5 percent and the smallcap index down over 2 percent.

Biggest Nifty losers were Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Eternal, Interglobe Aviation, Cipla, while gainers included Dr Reddy's Labs, Tech Mahindra, ONGC, Hindalco, HUL.

All the sectoral indices ended in the red with capital goods, power, realty, PSU Bank, and media down 2-3%.

&quot;After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness in the early part of the session. The weakness intensified in the mid to later part, and Nifty finally closed at the lows,&quot; said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

&quot;A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, which indicates a formation of a lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative, and one may expect Nifty to slide below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched is around 24,600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels,&quot; he added.

On Friday, the Indian rupee ended at a record low at 91.96 per dollar versus Thursday's close of 91.62.

&quot;The Indian rupee succumbed to a record low, bucking under the weight of voracious dollar demand from importers and corporates ahead of the long weekend and the upcoming Union Budget,&quot; said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

&quot;This fragility intensified as domestic equities faced a fresh bout of liquidation, erasing Thursday’s tentative recovery.&quot;

&quot;The outlook for spot USDINR remains resolutely bullish; we anticipate the pair may eclipse the psychological 92 threshold while finding the support at 91.10,&quot; he said.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one, Market correction sets stage for multi-year bull run if Budget backs Rs 11 trillion infra spend and middle-class consumption, Expect spotlight to be on consumer discretionary & retail, infra & industrials, and financials in budget

* Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one
* Market correction sets stage for multi-year bull run if Budget backs Rs 11 trillion infra spend and middle-class consumption
* Expect spotlight to be on consumer discretionary & retail, infra & industrials, and financials in budget

shorts/business/daily-voice-market-correction-may-spark-multi-year-bull-run-if-budget-boosts-infra-and-consumption-himani-shah

* Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one
* Market correction sets stage for multi-year bull run if Budget backs Rs 11 trillion infra spend and middle-class consumption
* Expect spotlight to be on consumer discretionary & retail, infra & industrials, and financials in budget

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one, according to Himani Shah, the Co-Fund Manager at Alchemy Capital Management.

If the government can demonstrate a roadmap that protects its Rs 11 trillion infrastructure commitment while simultaneously providing the middle class with the disposable income to drive consumption, we believe the current market correction will pave the way for a multi-year bull run, she said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, she expects the spotlight to be on three sectors - consumer discretionary and retail, infrastructure and industrials, and financials.

Do you think domestic fundamentals will provide strong support to Indian equities despite negative global cues such as tariff concerns and geopolitical issues, and help push the market higher in 2026 once the global-cues-driven uncertainty settles?

From a fundamental perspective, the ‘India Story’ remains remarkably resilient.

While global headlines are dominated by geopolitical volatility and trade concerns, our domestic indicators are decoupled in several key areas. We are witnessing a structural revival in manufacturing, with recent data indicating a 12-month high and an 8% growth rate.

Furthermore, the strategic cuts in Income Tax and GST have acted as a significant liquidity injection for the middle class, successfully driving consumer spending. We believe that once the global ‘noise’ settles, the market will re-rate based on these robust internal growth drivers, in our view.

Do you expect the market to deliver mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next 12 months, despite the potential for underperformance in the near term?

From a strategic standpoint, we do anticipate that the market may deliver mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next 12 months. While we expect a period of near-term underperformance as the market digests global volatility and cues-driven uncertainty, the fundamental 'real economy' indicators remain highly encouraging.

Our conviction is supported by high-frequency data, specifically the resurgence in auto sales (up 17-23%), retail momentum, and credit growth in the early teens. This suggests that recent tax reforms are effectively stimulating domestic demand. However, the 'flattish' GST collection, growing at only 6% in December 2025, remains the primary variable we are monitoring.

Should we see an uptick in GST collections, a mid-to-high single-digit index return would represent a conservative and achievable floor. Crucially, this growth could be high-quality, underpinned by genuine earnings expansion as valuations have already corrected meaningfully.

Do you expect continued momentum in consumer discretionary stocks and relatively less focus on capital expenditure in the Union Budget 2026?

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, the Indian economy finds itself at a delicate inflection point. While we have spent the last few years aggressively building the ‘hard’ infrastructure of the nation, the current market narrative reflects a tug-of-war between sustaining high-multiplier capital expenditure (capex) and reviving a stagnant consumption base.

India must achieve a ‘Golden Mean’ between fiscal prudence and growth-focused stimulus.

In an era of fragmenting global trade and rising geopolitical tensions, India cannot afford to take its foot off the pedal on capex. With nations increasingly looking inward and protectionism on the rise, in our view, the Budget must prioritise self-sufficiency. We are seeing a distinct global appetite for India to serve as a manufacturing alternative, driven by our vast, young labour force.

However, to truly capture the ‘China+1’ opportunity, the government must continue funding high-impact infrastructure such as digital grids, EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services) and renewable energy ecosystems. Maintaining the Rs 11 trillion capex momentum is no longer just an economic goal; it is a strategic necessity to ensure that our young workforce is backed by world-class industrial efficiency.

We remain bullish on capital goods and industrials as long as the government maintains its infrastructure commitment. Simultaneously, we are watching consumer discretionary and capital market plays.

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one. If the government can demonstrate a roadmap that protects its Rs 11 trillion infrastructure commitment while simultaneously providing the middle class with the disposable income to drive consumption, we believe the current market correction will pave the way for a multi-year bull run.

Do you rule out the possibility of earnings downgrades from Q4 FY26 onward?

We cannot entirely rule out earnings volatility. While Q3FY26 results so far have shown substantial growth and revival, the sustainability of this trend into Q4FY26 and beyond is contingent on the government's ability to maintain spending levels. If the government is forced to pull back on its Rs 11 trillion capex plan due to fiscal constraints, we may see a slight cooling in the industrial and infrastructure-linked earnings. We remain cautiously optimistic and are watching the Q4FY26 run rate closely.

Do you agree that employment growth is likely to become a major global challenge in the context of increasing AI adoption?

We believe that increasing AI adoption poses a significant structural challenge to global employment growth. In our view, this shift is primarily a workforce ‘displacement’ rather than a total pause in hiring. We are witnessing a historical inversion where white-collar, cognitive roles face deflationary pressures from automation, while the ‘real economy’ —manufacturing, specialised trades, and physical infrastructure—remains labour-hungry and resilient.

From an investment standpoint, this creates a clear dichotomy: we focus on companies that utilise AI to expand operating margins without linearly increasing headcount, as this boosts Earnings Per Share (EPS). We stay cautious on mass-market consumption themes that rely heavily on broad-based white-collar wage growth. Accordingly, our strategy pivots toward ‘physical world’ sectors such as industrials and capital goods, where human expertise remains irreplaceable. We remain underweight on traditional services that are vulnerable to AI-driven commoditisation.

Which three sectors do you believe are likely to be in the limelight in the Union Budget?

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, we expect the spotlight to be on:
1. Consumer Discretionary and Retail: To see if the government provides further GST rationalisation to sustain the current growth in lifestyle segments.
2. Infrastructure and Industrials: Focus will be on whether the government stays the course on its massive capex targets or pivots toward fiscal consolidation.
3. Financials: Any budgetary measures regarding liquidity, banking reforms or capital market reforms may be a major catalyst for the Financials pack.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice | Market correction may spark multi-year bull run if Budget boosts infra and consumption: Himani Shah

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one, according to Himani Shah, the Co-Fund Manager at Alchemy Capital Management.

If the government can demonstrate a roadmap that protects its Rs 11 trillion infrastructure commitment while simultaneously providing the middle class with the disposable income to drive consumption, we believe the current market correction will pave the way for a multi-year bull run, she said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, she expects the spotlight to be on three sectors - consumer discretionary and retail, infrastructure and industrials, and financials.

Do you think domestic fundamentals will provide strong support to Indian equities despite negative global cues such as tariff concerns and geopolitical issues, and help push the market higher in 2026 once the global-cues-driven uncertainty settles?

From a fundamental perspective, the ‘India Story’ remains remarkably resilient.

While global headlines are dominated by geopolitical volatility and trade concerns, our domestic indicators are decoupled in several key areas. We are witnessing a structural revival in manufacturing, with recent data indicating a 12-month high and an 8% growth rate.

Furthermore, the strategic cuts in Income Tax and GST have acted as a significant liquidity injection for the middle class, successfully driving consumer spending. We believe that once the global ‘noise’ settles, the market will re-rate based on these robust internal growth drivers, in our view.

Do you expect the market to deliver mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next 12 months, despite the potential for underperformance in the near term?

From a strategic standpoint, we do anticipate that the market may deliver mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next 12 months. While we expect a period of near-term underperformance as the market digests global volatility and cues-driven uncertainty, the fundamental 'real economy' indicators remain highly encouraging.

Our conviction is supported by high-frequency data, specifically the resurgence in auto sales (up 17-23%), retail momentum, and credit growth in the early teens. This suggests that recent tax reforms are effectively stimulating domestic demand. However, the 'flattish' GST collection, growing at only 6% in December 2025, remains the primary variable we are monitoring.

Should we see an uptick in GST collections, a mid-to-high single-digit index return would represent a conservative and achievable floor. Crucially, this growth could be high-quality, underpinned by genuine earnings expansion as valuations have already corrected meaningfully.

Do you expect continued momentum in consumer discretionary stocks and relatively less focus on capital expenditure in the Union Budget 2026?

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, the Indian economy finds itself at a delicate inflection point. While we have spent the last few years aggressively building the ‘hard’ infrastructure of the nation, the current market narrative reflects a tug-of-war between sustaining high-multiplier capital expenditure (capex) and reviving a stagnant consumption base.

India must achieve a ‘Golden Mean’ between fiscal prudence and growth-focused stimulus.

In an era of fragmenting global trade and rising geopolitical tensions, India cannot afford to take its foot off the pedal on capex. With nations increasingly looking inward and protectionism on the rise, in our view, the Budget must prioritise self-sufficiency. We are seeing a distinct global appetite for India to serve as a manufacturing alternative, driven by our vast, young labour force.

However, to truly capture the ‘China+1’ opportunity, the government must continue funding high-impact infrastructure such as digital grids, EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services) and renewable energy ecosystems. Maintaining the Rs 11 trillion capex momentum is no longer just an economic goal; it is a strategic necessity to ensure that our young workforce is backed by world-class industrial efficiency.

We remain bullish on capital goods and industrials as long as the government maintains its infrastructure commitment. Simultaneously, we are watching consumer discretionary and capital market plays.

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one. If the government can demonstrate a roadmap that protects its Rs 11 trillion infrastructure commitment while simultaneously providing the middle class with the disposable income to drive consumption, we believe the current market correction will pave the way for a multi-year bull run.

Do you rule out the possibility of earnings downgrades from Q4 FY26 onward?

We cannot entirely rule out earnings volatility. While Q3FY26 results so far have shown substantial growth and revival, the sustainability of this trend into Q4FY26 and beyond is contingent on the government's ability to maintain spending levels. If the government is forced to pull back on its Rs 11 trillion capex plan due to fiscal constraints, we may see a slight cooling in the industrial and infrastructure-linked earnings. We remain cautiously optimistic and are watching the Q4FY26 run rate closely.

Do you agree that employment growth is likely to become a major global challenge in the context of increasing AI adoption?

We believe that increasing AI adoption poses a significant structural challenge to global employment growth. In our view, this shift is primarily a workforce ‘displacement’ rather than a total pause in hiring. We are witnessing a historical inversion where white-collar, cognitive roles face deflationary pressures from automation, while the ‘real economy’ —manufacturing, specialised trades, and physical infrastructure—remains labour-hungry and resilient.

From an investment standpoint, this creates a clear dichotomy: we focus on companies that utilise AI to expand operating margins without linearly increasing headcount, as this boosts Earnings Per Share (EPS). We stay cautious on mass-market consumption themes that rely heavily on broad-based white-collar wage growth. Accordingly, our strategy pivots toward ‘physical world’ sectors such as industrials and capital goods, where human expertise remains irreplaceable. We remain underweight on traditional services that are vulnerable to AI-driven commoditisation.

Which three sectors do you believe are likely to be in the limelight in the Union Budget?

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, we expect the spotlight to be on:
1. Consumer Discretionary and Retail: To see if the government provides further GST rationalisation to sustain the current growth in lifestyle segments.
2. Infrastructure and Industrials: Focus will be on whether the government stays the course on its massive capex targets or pivots toward fiscal consolidation.
3. Financials: Any budgetary measures regarding liquidity, banking reforms or capital market reforms may be a major catalyst for the Financials pack.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Cautious market expected to be volatile this week with focus majorly on Union Budget, Fed interest rate decision, Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases and further corporate earnings will also be watched this week

* Cautious market expected to be volatile this week with focus majorly on Union Budget, Fed interest rate decision
* Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases and further corporate earnings will also be watched this week

shorts/business/dalal-street-this-week-union-budget-fomc-meet-q3-earnings-auto-sales-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

* Cautious market expected to be volatile this week with focus majorly on Union Budget, Fed interest rate decision
* Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases and further corporate earnings will also be watched this week

The market caught in a bear trap and plunged 2.5 percent in the last week ended January 23, pressured by renewed global trade tensions, geopolitical dynamics, persistent FII outflow, and uneven Q3 earnings.

Fresh US tariff threats against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets, but later, Donald Trump stepped back from immediate tariff action, which eased concerns of a US-EU trade war, but their relations remained strained.

The Indian rupee also hit a record low of 91.97 against the US dollar.

In the current trading week starting from January 27 till February 1 (except Saturday holiday), the cautious market is expected to be volatile with a major focus on the Union Budget and the Fed interest rate decision. Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases, and further corporate earnings will also be watched.

The BSE Sensex plummeted 2,033 points (2.43 percent) to close at 81,538, and the Nifty 50 fell 646 points (2.51 percent - the biggest weekly fall since September 2025) to 25,049, while the broader markets hit hard with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices crashing 4.55 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, in the current week, investors will closely track guidance from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows.

Sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand, he said.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said overall, markets would continue to track developments around global trade negotiations and geopolitical dynamics, while stock-specific action is expected to remain driven by ongoing Q3 earnings announcements.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/budget/" target="_blank">Union Budget</a>

The market participants will keenly watch the Union Budget 2026 - the major domestic factor - in the current week. The Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will announce the detailed estimated revenue and expenditures for the new financial year 2026-27 on February 1.

Most economists and experts expect the government to maintain continuity and increase capital expenditure for the new fiscal by 10-15 percent over the previous fiscal year, particularly as private sector investment has remained muted in recent months. Further, the fiscal discipline remains a key priority with experts expecting the fiscal deficit to be revised downward to 4.2-4.3 percent of GDP for FY27, against 4.4 percent for FY26, limiting the room for an aggressive and across-the-board capex expansion.

As a result, the budget is likely to adopt a more selective approach, prioritising sectors with higher multiplier effects and strategic relevance, experts said. Railways, defence manufacturing, renewables, AI-led infrastructure, and data centres are expected to remain in focus, ensuring continuity in asset creation without straining public finances.

Performance-linked incentive (PLI) schemes are also expected to be continued and expanded to support electronics, including semiconductors, mobiles, display units, and the manufacturing of clean-tech goods such as EVs, battery storage systems, renewables, and green hydrogen electrolysers.

Experts also expect more details on the National Manufacturing Mission, which was conceptualized in the last budget, and some initiatives for labour-intensive tariff-hit sectors and industries, including textiles, leather, toy manufacturing, among others, as well as for critical rare-earth minerals.

Budget is also likely to focus meaningfully on targeted consumption support, with measures like further income tax relief, higher standard deductions, increased rural and agricultural spending, employment generation schemes, skilling initiatives, and focused welfare programmes.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/earnings/" target="_blank">Corporate Earnings</a>

The December quarter earnings season will be in full swing as nearly 500 companies are set to release their quarterly results in the current week. The list includes the prominent Nifty 50 names like Larsen &amp; Toubro, Maruti Suzuki India, ITC, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Consumer Products, SBI Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, Nestle India, NTPC, Power Grid Corporation of India, Bharat Electronics, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

Apart from Nifty 50 names, several other key names like Tata Motors, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, One 97 Communications Paytm, Swiggy, Meesho, Vodafone Idea, Marico, Vishal Mega Mart, WeWork India Management, ACC, CSB Bank, Gland Pharma, Lodha Developers, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra Financial Services, National Securities Depository, Pine Labs, SBI Cards and Payment Services, TVS Motor Company, Adani Power, Blue Star, Colgate Palmolive, Dabur India, Indian Energy Exchange, Manappuram Finance, Vedanta, Voltas, Ambuja Cements, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Jindal Steel, LIC Housing Finance, National Aluminium Company, Bharat Dynamics, and Gail (India) will also announce their quarterly earnings this week.

Auto Sales

Auto stocks including Tata Motors, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai Motor India, Eicher Motors, TVS Motor, Hero MotoCorp, and Mahindra &amp; Mahindra will also be in focus this week as they will release their sales volumes data for the first month of this calendar year i.e. January, on the last day of this week i.e. February 1.

The focus will be on whether the double-digit growth observed across segments in December 2025 will be sustained in January.

Domestic Economic Data

On the economic data front, industrial and manufacturing production numbers for December will be released on January 28. This follows fiscal deficit data for December, bank loan &amp; deposit growth for the fortnight ended January 9, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended January 23, which are scheduled on January 30.

FOMC Meet

Globally, apart from geopolitical tensions and Trump tariff threats, the focus will be on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee's first monetary policy meeting of the current calendar year, scheduled on January 27-28. Most economists expect the central bank to hold the Fed funds rate in the 3.5-3.75 percent range after three cuts last year, given steady inflation and resilient consumer spending in the US.

Weekly US jobs data, monthly PPI, and durable goods data due this week will also shape monetary policy expectations.

Global Economic Data

Further, Europe's GDP growth flash numbers for Q4-CY25 and unemployment rate for December, and Japan's recent monetary policy meeting minutes, monthly retail sales, and construction orders data will also be announced this week.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790283 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260125231859_Image525012026.jpg" alt="Image525012026" width="1039" height="581" />

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php" target="_blank">FII Flow</a>

Back home, the market participants will keep an eye on the mood of FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) as they maintain persistent selling in Indian equities. In fact, they increased the intensity of selling in the last few weeks as it offloaded over Rs 14,600 crore worth shares in the recent week against over Rs 14,200 crore worth shares selling in the previous week, taking the total current month's outflow to Rs 40,700 crore (as per provisional numbers, which is the highest since August 2025).

The consistent weakening rupee against the US dollar, the delay in the India-US trade deal, and the unimpressive December quarter earnings seem to be key reasons behind FIIs selling, according to experts.

On the contrary, DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) continued to provide strong support to the market, though FIIs capped market upside. DIIs' net buying was far higher than FIIs' outflow, picking up shares worth over Rs 20,700 crore in the recent week, taking the total net purchases for January to over Rs 54,800 crore.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee hit an intraday record low of 91.965 against the US dollar, depreciating 1.07 percent for the recent week to end at a new closing low of 91.635 and sustaining above the upper Bollinger bands.

The US dollar index fell 1.93 percent during the recent week (the biggest weekly fall since April 2025) to end at 97.456, the lowest closing level since June 2025, amid heightened volatility and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO</a>

The primary market will see five new companies - Kasturi Metal Composite, Kanishk Aluminium India, Msafe Equipments, Accretion Nutraveda, and CKK Retail Mart launching their IPOs amounting to Rs 226 crore - all from the SME segment - this week, while the action is absent in the mainboard segment.

The IPOs by Hannah Joseph Hospital and Shayona Engineering will remain open for subscription till January 27.

Meanwhile, five new companies will be available for trading on the bourses this week, including Shadowfax Technologies - the only company from the mainboard segment - scheduled for its market debut on January 28. The other four companies - Digilogic Systems, KRM Ayurveda, Hannah Joseph Hospital, and Shayona Engineering (all from the SME segment) will also be listed in the current week.

Technical View, F&amp;O Cues

Technically, the Nifty 50 is expected to be volatile with a negative bias and likely to witness a broad trading range of 24,500-26,000 in the current week after reporting a sharp fall last week. The technical and momentum indicators are in favour of bears. The last week's low of 24,900 is expected to immediate crucial support for the index as below it, the 25,600-25,500 is the zone to watch, followed by 24,300 being crucial support (August 2025 low), however, the immedate resistance is placed at 25,160 (200-day EMA), followed by 25,450 and then 25,700-25,800 being critical hurdle as sustaining above it can get the bulls back on street, according to experts.

The monthly options data also indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to see a trading range of 24,500-26,000. The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,250 and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,300, 25,200 and 25,500 strikes, while the 24,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 24,700 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 24,700, 24,600 and 25,050 strikes.

Meanwhile, as expected, the India VIX maintained its strong uptrend ahead of the Union Budget. It surged 24.8 percent last week (the biggest weekly rally since April 2025) to 14.19 (the highest closing level since June 2025) and hit the 200-week EMA, signalling elevated market uncertainty. It gained for the fourth consecutive week.

Corporation Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790284 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260125232301_Image425012026.jpg" alt="Image425012026" width="950" height="856" />

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street This Week: Union Budget, FOMC meet, Q3 earnings, auto sales among 10 key factors to watch

In the trading week starting from January 27 till February 1 (except Saturday holiday), the cautious market is expected to be volatile with focus majorly on Union Budget, and Fed interest rate decision.

Stock Market This Week: Union Budget, FOMC meet, Q3 earnings, auto sales among 10 key factors to watch

The market caught in a bear trap and plunged 2.5 percent in the last week ended January 23, pressured by renewed global trade tensions, geopolitical dynamics, persistent FII outflow, and uneven Q3 earnings.

Fresh US tariff threats against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets, but later, Donald Trump stepped back from immediate tariff action, which eased concerns of a US-EU trade war, but their relations remained strained.

The Indian rupee also hit a record low of 91.97 against the US dollar.

In the current trading week starting from January 27 till February 1 (except Saturday holiday), the cautious market is expected to be volatile with a major focus on the Union Budget and the Fed interest rate decision. Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases, and further corporate earnings will also be watched.

The BSE Sensex plummeted 2,033 points (2.43 percent) to close at 81,538, and the Nifty 50 fell 646 points (2.51 percent - the biggest weekly fall since September 2025) to 25,049, while the broader markets hit hard with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices crashing 4.55 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, in the current week, investors will closely track guidance from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows.

Sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand, he said.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said overall, markets would continue to track developments around global trade negotiations and geopolitical dynamics, while stock-specific action is expected to remain driven by ongoing Q3 earnings announcements.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

Union Budget

The market participants will keenly watch the Union Budget 2026 - the major domestic factor - in the current week. The Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will announce the detailed estimated revenue and expenditures for the new financial year 2026-27 on February 1.

Most economists and experts expect the government to maintain continuity and increase capital expenditure for the new fiscal by 10-15 percent over the previous fiscal year, particularly as private sector investment has remained muted in recent months. Further, the fiscal discipline remains a key priority with experts expecting the fiscal deficit to be revised downward to 4.2-4.3 percent of GDP for FY27, against 4.4 percent for FY26, limiting the room for an aggressive and across-the-board capex expansion.

As a result, the budget is likely to adopt a more selective approach, prioritising sectors with higher multiplier effects and strategic relevance, experts said. Railways, defence manufacturing, renewables, AI-led infrastructure, and data centres are expected to remain in focus, ensuring continuity in asset creation without straining public finances.

Performance-linked incentive (PLI) schemes are also expected to be continued and expanded to support electronics, including semiconductors, mobiles, display units, and the manufacturing of clean-tech goods such as EVs, battery storage systems, renewables, and green hydrogen electrolysers.

Experts also expect more details on the National Manufacturing Mission, which was conceptualized in the last budget, and some initiatives for labour-intensive tariff-hit sectors and industries, including textiles, leather, toy manufacturing, among others, as well as for critical rare-earth minerals.

Budget is also likely to focus meaningfully on targeted consumption support, with measures like further income tax relief, higher standard deductions, increased rural and agricultural spending, employment generation schemes, skilling initiatives, and focused welfare programmes.

Corporate Earnings

The December quarter earnings season will be in full swing as nearly 500 companies are set to release their quarterly results in the current week. The list includes the prominent Nifty 50 names like Larsen &amp;amp; Toubro, Maruti Suzuki India, ITC, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Consumer Products, SBI Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, Nestle India, NTPC, Power Grid Corporation of India, Bharat Electronics, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

Apart from Nifty 50 names, several other key names like Tata Motors, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, One 97 Communications Paytm, Swiggy, Meesho, Vodafone Idea, Marico, Vishal Mega Mart, WeWork India Management, ACC, CSB Bank, Gland Pharma, Lodha Developers, Mahindra &amp;amp; Mahindra Financial Services, National Securities Depository, Pine Labs, SBI Cards and Payment Services, TVS Motor Company, Adani Power, Blue Star, Colgate Palmolive, Dabur India, Indian Energy Exchange, Manappuram Finance, Vedanta, Voltas, Ambuja Cements, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Jindal Steel, LIC Housing Finance, National Aluminium Company, Bharat Dynamics, and Gail (India) will also announce their quarterly earnings this week.

Auto Sales

Auto stocks including Tata Motors, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai Motor India, Eicher Motors, TVS Motor, Hero MotoCorp, and Mahindra &amp;amp; Mahindra will also be in focus this week as they will release their sales volumes data for the first month of this calendar year i.e. January, on the last day of this week i.e. February 1.

The focus will be on whether the double-digit growth observed across segments in December 2025 will be sustained in January.

Domestic Economic Data

On the economic data front, industrial and manufacturing production numbers for December will be released on January 28. This follows fiscal deficit data for December, bank loan &amp;amp; deposit growth for the fortnight ended January 9, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended January 23, which are scheduled on January 30.

FOMC Meet

Globally, apart from geopolitical tensions and Trump tariff threats, the focus will be on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee's first monetary policy meeting of the current calendar year, scheduled on January 27-28. Most economists expect the central bank to hold the Fed funds rate in the 3.5-3.75 percent range after three cuts last year, given steady inflation and resilient consumer spending in the US.

Weekly US jobs data, monthly PPI, and durable goods data due this week will also shape monetary policy expectations.

Global Economic Data

Further, Europe's GDP growth flash numbers for Q4-CY25 and unemployment rate for December, and Japan's recent monetary policy meeting minutes, monthly retail sales, and construction orders data will also be announced this week.



FII Flow

Back home, the market participants will keep an eye on the mood of FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) as they maintain persistent selling in Indian equities. In fact, they increased the intensity of selling in the last few weeks as it offloaded over Rs 14,600 crore worth shares in the recent week against over Rs 14,200 crore worth shares selling in the previous week, taking the total current month's outflow to Rs 40,700 crore (as per provisional numbers, which is the highest since August 2025).

The consistent weakening rupee against the US dollar, the delay in the India-US trade deal, and the unimpressive December quarter earnings seem to be key reasons behind FIIs selling, according to experts.

On the contrary, DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) continued to provide strong support to the market, though FIIs capped market upside. DIIs' net buying was far higher than FIIs' outflow, picking up shares worth over Rs 20,700 crore in the recent week, taking the total net purchases for January to over Rs 54,800 crore.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee hit an intraday record low of 91.965 against the US dollar, depreciating 1.07 percent for the recent week to end at a new closing low of 91.635 and sustaining above the upper Bollinger bands.

The US dollar index fell 1.93 percent during the recent week (the biggest weekly fall since April 2025) to end at 97.456, the lowest closing level since June 2025, amid heightened volatility and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

IPO

The primary market will see five new companies - Kasturi Metal Composite, Kanishk Aluminium India, Msafe Equipments, Accretion Nutraveda, and CKK Retail Mart launching their IPOs amounting to Rs 226 crore - all from the SME segment - this week, while the action is absent in the mainboard segment.

The IPOs by Hannah Joseph Hospital and Shayona Engineering will remain open for subscription till January 27.

Meanwhile, five new companies will be available for trading on the bourses this week, including Shadowfax Technologies - the only company from the mainboard segment - scheduled for its market debut on January 28. The other four companies - Digilogic Systems, KRM Ayurveda, Hannah Joseph Hospital, and Shayona Engineering (all from the SME segment) will also be listed in the current week.

Technical View, F&amp;amp;O Cues

Technically, the Nifty 50 is expected to be volatile with a negative bias and likely to witness a broad trading range of 24,500-26,000 in the current week after reporting a sharp fall last week. The technical and momentum indicators are in favour of bears. The last week's low of 24,900 is expected to immediate crucial support for the index as below it, the 25,600-25,500 is the zone to watch, followed by 24,300 being crucial support (August 2025 low), however, the immedate resistance is placed at 25,160 (200-day EMA), followed by 25,450 and then 25,700-25,800 being critical hurdle as sustaining above it can get the bulls back on street, according to experts.

The monthly options data also indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to see a trading range of 24,500-26,000. The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,250 and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,300, 25,200 and 25,500 strikes, while the 24,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 24,700 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 24,700, 24,600 and 25,050 strikes.

Meanwhile, as expected, the India VIX maintained its strong uptrend ahead of the Union Budget. It surged 24.8 percent last week (the biggest weekly rally since April 2025) to 14.19 (the highest closing level since June 2025) and hit the 200-week EMA, signalling elevated market uncertainty. It gained for the fourth consecutive week.

Corporation Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:



Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty may see minor downside but may not see major drawdowns, Expect recovery in Paytm as stock has limited downside, See some technical rebound in Swiggy, Expect HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra to move meaningfully higher from current levels

* Nifty may see minor downside but may not see major drawdowns
* Expect recovery in Paytm as stock has limited downside
* See some technical rebound in Swiggy
* Expect HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra to move meaningfully higher from current levels

shorts/business/chartist-talk-nifty-may-be-rangebound-in-budget-week-paytm-rebound-likely-upside-in-hcl-tech-and-techm-milan-vaishnav

* Nifty may see minor downside but may not see major drawdowns
* Expect recovery in Paytm as stock has limited downside
* See some technical rebound in Swiggy
* Expect HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra to move meaningfully higher from current levels

According to Milan Vaishnav, MSTA, Founder of Gemstone Equity Research &amp; Advisory Services, the Nifty may see minor downside but may not see major drawdowns. "We may stay in a broad range for some more time while maintaining the 24,500-24,750 zone as support," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He expects recovery in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/online-services/one97communicationspaytm/OC03">Paytm</a> as the stock has now limited downside, and sees some technical rebound in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/online-services/swiggy/SL24">Swiggy</a> if the major double bottom support near Rs 296 is defended.

Both <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computers-software/hcltechnologies/HCL02">HCL Technologies</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computers-software/techmahindra/TM4">Tech Mahindra</a> are trading above key moving averages on all time frame charts. He expects both of them to move meaningfully higher from current levels.

What do you make of the momentum indicators? Are you convinced that the oversold signals point to an end to the current selling phase?

It would not be a good idea to look at overall technicals in isolation. On the daily front, on one hand, Nifty has violated the 200-DMA (25,412), and it has also oversold. On the higher timeframe charts, the Nifty has some more room on the downside till the 50-week MA, which is positioned at 24,758.

We are also approaching the Union Budget, which is one of the major events that the markets react to. The Fed Interest rate decision is also lined up.

Therefore, keeping all things in view, the Nifty may see minor downside but may not see major drawdowns. In the same breadth, linear moves may continue to elude us, and we may stay in a broad range for some more time while maintaining the 24,500-24,750 zone as support.

So, key would be to stay highly selective, not short the markets too much, and stay invested in relatively stronger pockets.

If so, does that mean the market (Nifty) is closer to a bottom, even though predicting market tops or bottoms is generally difficult?

I will not say that predicting market tops or bottoms is generally difficult. However, as a professional, one must also understand that it would be amateurish to think that one can buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest point. One can never catch the last cent.

Coming to the point, so long as the 24,500-24,750 zone is defended, the primary uptrend will stay defended. Only if this zone is violated can we expect some serious reversal.

Presently, it is all about digesting the primary uptrends rather than any reversal that we should be talking about.

Do you see a high probability of the Bank Nifty breaking below 58,000 next week and testing its November 2025 low?

The 58,000 is less than 500 points away from Friday's close. This may or may not get violated and this would not hold any technical significance. The primary uptrend stays protected so long as the 50-week MA is defended, which is positioned at 55,467.

What are your top two bets for the coming week?

My focus would continue to be on Relative Strength; the presence of relative strength would be a must in the present technical setup.

My top stock picks would be <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aerospacedefence/bharatelectronics/BE03">Bharat Electronics</a> (BEL) and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/pharmaceuticals/lupin/L">Lupin</a>.

BEL has been a strong relative outperformer over the recent months. On higher timeframe charts, it has formed an ascending triangle. It is likely to get resolved while moving higher from current levels.

Lupin has also kept its primary uptrend intact. It is undergoing consolidation and is expected to move higher meaningfully from here while maintaining its relative strength against the broader markets.

Do you expect a bounce back in the midcap and small-cap indices soon, or are they likely to remain under pressure for the next couple of weeks?

I expect Midcaps to outperform small caps. While the Nifty Small Cap Index is evidently weak from a technical lens, the Nifty MidCap 100 Index has just resisted its multi-month resistance and is consolidating rather than showing any retracement. The relative strength (RS) against the broader Nifty 500 is also showing initial signs of improvement.

Do you see further downside in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/online-services/one97communicationspaytm/OC03">Paytm</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/online-services/swiggy/SL24">Swiggy</a> even after their recent sharp decline?

Paytm and Swiggy cannot be seen in the same manner. Paytm has reacted to negative news flow, but the primary uptrend remains absolutely intact. I expect recovery here as the stock has now limited downside.

On the other hand, Swiggy is technically weak and is approaching its major double bottom support near Rs 296. We need to see if that is defended. If yes, then we may see some technical rebound there as well.

Do you expect more upside in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computers-software/hcltechnologies/HCL02">HCL Technologies</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computers-software/techmahindra/TM4">Tech Mahindra</a>?

IT has been one of the most resilient spaces. Even if the absolute returns have stayed muted, it has demonstrated strong relative strength against the broader markets. Both HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra are trading above key moving averages on all time frame charts. I expect both of them to move meaningfully higher from current levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist Talk | Nifty may be rangebound in Budget week; Paytm rebound likely, upside in HCL Tech and TechM: Milan Vaishnav

Chartist Talk: Nifty may see minor downside but no major drawdowns in budget week; Paytm recovery likely, meaningful upside seen in HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, says Milan Vaishnav

According to Milan Vaishnav, MSTA, Founder of Gemstone Equity Research &amp;amp; Advisory Services, the Nifty may see minor downside but may not see major drawdowns. &quot;We may stay in a broad range for some more time while maintaining the 24,500-24,750 zone as support,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He expects recovery in Paytm as the stock has now limited downside, and sees some technical rebound in Swiggy if the major double bottom support near Rs 296 is defended.

Both HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra are trading above key moving averages on all time frame charts. He expects both of them to move meaningfully higher from current levels.

What do you make of the momentum indicators? Are you convinced that the oversold signals point to an end to the current selling phase?

It would not be a good idea to look at overall technicals in isolation. On the daily front, on one hand, Nifty has violated the 200-DMA (25,412), and it has also oversold. On the higher timeframe charts, the Nifty has some more room on the downside till the 50-week MA, which is positioned at 24,758.

We are also approaching the Union Budget, which is one of the major events that the markets react to. The Fed Interest rate decision is also lined up.

Therefore, keeping all things in view, the Nifty may see minor downside but may not see major drawdowns. In the same breadth, linear moves may continue to elude us, and we may stay in a broad range for some more time while maintaining the 24,500-24,750 zone as support.

So, key would be to stay highly selective, not short the markets too much, and stay invested in relatively stronger pockets.

If so, does that mean the market (Nifty) is closer to a bottom, even though predicting market tops or bottoms is generally difficult?

I will not say that predicting market tops or bottoms is generally difficult. However, as a professional, one must also understand that it would be amateurish to think that one can buy at the lowest price and sell at the highest point. One can never catch the last cent.

Coming to the point, so long as the 24,500-24,750 zone is defended, the primary uptrend will stay defended. Only if this zone is violated can we expect some serious reversal.

Presently, it is all about digesting the primary uptrends rather than any reversal that we should be talking about.

Do you see a high probability of the Bank Nifty breaking below 58,000 next week and testing its November 2025 low?

The 58,000 is less than 500 points away from Friday's close. This may or may not get violated and this would not hold any technical significance. The primary uptrend stays protected so long as the 50-week MA is defended, which is positioned at 55,467.

What are your top two bets for the coming week?

My focus would continue to be on Relative Strength; the presence of relative strength would be a must in the present technical setup.

My top stock picks would be Bharat Electronics (BEL) and Lupin.

BEL has been a strong relative outperformer over the recent months. On higher timeframe charts, it has formed an ascending triangle. It is likely to get resolved while moving higher from current levels.

Lupin has also kept its primary uptrend intact. It is undergoing consolidation and is expected to move higher meaningfully from here while maintaining its relative strength against the broader markets.

Do you expect a bounce back in the midcap and small-cap indices soon, or are they likely to remain under pressure for the next couple of weeks?

I expect Midcaps to outperform small caps. While the Nifty Small Cap Index is evidently weak from a technical lens, the Nifty MidCap 100 Index has just resisted its multi-month resistance and is consolidating rather than showing any retracement. The relative strength (RS) against the broader Nifty 500 is also showing initial signs of improvement.

Do you see further downside in Paytm and Swiggy even after their recent sharp decline?

Paytm and Swiggy cannot be seen in the same manner. Paytm has reacted to negative news flow, but the primary uptrend remains absolutely intact. I expect recovery here as the stock has now limited downside.

On the other hand, Swiggy is technically weak and is approaching its major double bottom support near Rs 296. We need to see if that is defended. If yes, then we may see some technical rebound there as well.

Do you expect more upside in HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra?

IT has been one of the most resilient spaces. Even if the absolute returns have stayed muted, it has demonstrated strong relative strength against the broader markets. Both HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra are trading above key moving averages on all time frame charts. I expect both of them to move meaningfully higher from current levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

8 out of 16 years NIFTY FMCG has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	52,055.00	52,447.95	52,678.40	51,824.55	51,431.60	51,201.15	50,808.20
Fibonacci	52,062.69	52,209.81	52,447.95	51,824.55	51,586.41	51,439.29	51,201.15
Camarilla	51,719.20	51,776.34	51,833.48	51,824.55	51,604.90	51,547.76	51,490.62

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY FMCG

Net Contribution

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