NIFTY 500

Indian market & Rupee see sharp recovery | Brent Oil up 5% | Global markets fall on geopolitical risk

Sensex and Nifty likely to open weak, tracking GIFT Nifty losses, Asian stocks slip, US equities rise amid Middle East tensions, FIIs net sellers, DIIs offset some selling with ₹7,000 crore buys

* Sensex and Nifty likely to open weak, tracking GIFT Nifty losses
* Asian stocks slip, US equities rise amid Middle East tensions
* FIIs net sellers, DIIs offset some selling with ₹7,000 crore buys

Indian equity benchmarks may open weak on April 2, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty. Global markets saw mixed moves: Wall Street rose, Asian stocks slipped, oil gained, gold fell, and FIIs remained net sellers, partly offset by DIIs' purchases.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-127

Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a weak sytart on April 2, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower around the 22,426 level.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The Indian equity market snapped its two-day losing streak and ended the first session of the new series on a strong note on April 1, supported by signs of de-escalation in the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran.

At close, the Sensex was up 1,186.77 points or 1.65 percent at 73,134.32, and the Nifty was up 348 points or 1.56 percent at 22,679.40.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Down)

GIFT Nifty was trading lower at the 22,426 mark, indicating a weak start for Indian equity indices.

Asian Equities (Slip)

Asian stocks extended their losses after President Donald Trump said the US would hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks, damping hopes for a swift resolution to the conflict.



US Equities (Up)

Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday, with strong gains in Alphabet and other heavyweights, after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested ‌an end to the Middle East conflict could be close.

The S&amp;amp;P 500 climbed 0.72% to end the session at 6,575.32 points. The Nasdaq gained 1.16% to 21,840.95 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48% to 46,565.74 points.



Dollar Index (Slips)

A dollar declined against the other major currencies in the early trade on Thursday.



US Bond Yield (Up)

Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury and 2-year U.S. Treasury rose 3 basis points and 2 basis points to 4.35% and 3.82%, respectively.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Among Asian currencies, except the Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit, all other currencies were trading lower.



Crude (Gains)

Oil prices climbed more than $4 on Thursday after President Donald Trump said the United States would continue to attack Iran, including energy and oil targets over the next few weeks, and did not commit to a specific timeline to end the war.



Gold (Down)

Gold fell after US President Donald Trump said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) began the new financial year on a weak note, remaining net sellers as they offloaded equities worth ₹8,331 crore on April 1. However, the selling pressure was partly offset by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), who purchased equities worth over ₹7,000 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Nestle, Wipro are among top gainers on the Nifty, while losers are Eternal, Asian Paints, Eicher Motors, NTPC and Sun Pharma. Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices down 1% each. Among sectors IT index up 2.5%, while PSU Bank, oil &amp;amp; gas, pharma, consumer durables down 1% each.

Sensex Today | Stock Market Live: Market recovers, Nifty near 22,700; rupee below 93

Nifty 50 needs to witness follow-through buying interest for a move towards 23,000–23,200 zone, 22,500–22,300 zone can act as a support area, Bank Nifty likely to face resistance at 52,000–52,200, followed by 53,000, however, 51,100 can act as immediate support, followed by 50,700

* Nifty 50 needs to witness follow-through buying interest for a move towards 23,000–23,200 zone
* 22,500–22,300 zone can act as a support area
* Bank Nifty likely to face resistance at 52,000–52,200, followed by 53,000, however, 51,100 can act as immediate support, followed by 50,700

shorts/business/trading-plan-can-nifty-50-bank-nifty-extend-recovery-amid-iran-war-developments-elevated-vix

After showing a strong bounce on hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict following a two-day sharp sell-off, the Nifty 50 needs to witness follow-through buying interest in the upcoming sessions for a move towards the 23,000–23,200 zone, with 23,470 acting as a crucial hurdle for negating the bearish bias. However, momentum indicators continue to validate the bearish construct, with the formation of a lower top and lower bottom structure, while India VIX remains elevated around 25, signaling caution. The 22,500–22,300 zone can act as a support area. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to face resistance at 52,000–52,200, followed by 53,000. In case of a correction, 51,100 can act as immediate support, followed by 50,700, according to experts.

On April 1, the Nifty 50 rose 348 points (1.56 percent) to 22,679, while the Bank Nifty rallied 1,173 points (2.33 percent) to 51,449. Market breadth turned strong, with about 2,778 shares advancing against 228 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The benchmark index, Nifty, witnessed a fierce sell-off during March, culminating in the formation of a large bearish candle on the monthly chart, underscoring the strength of the prevailing downtrend. From its all-time high, the index has corrected by over 4,000 points, or more than 15 percent, highlighting the intensity and persistence of selling pressure.

The index is currently trading more than 9 percent below its 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, marking the sharpest deviation from these long-term averages in recent months. This wide gap clearly reflects the steepness, pace, and momentum of the recent decline, signaling meaningful technical damage.

Momentum indicators continue to validate the bearish construct. The weekly RSI has slipped to 27.68 and remains in a declining phase, registering its lowest level since March 2020. Such deeply oversold readings reflect strong downside momentum and indicate that selling pressure continues to dominate market dynamics.

Going ahead, the 22,900–23,000 zone is expected to act as immediate resistance for the index. A sustained move above 23,000 could pave the way for the next upside hurdle near 23,300.

On the downside, the 22,530–22,500 zone will serve as immediate support. A decisive and sustained break below 22,500 is likely to resume the broader downtrend, opening downside levels toward 22,300, followed by 22,100 in the near term.

Key Resistance: 22,900, 23,000, 23,300

Key Support: 22,500, 22,300, 22,100

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 23,925, with a stop-loss of 23,650, targeting 24,450.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse

The Nifty index staged a strong rebound, snapping its two-day losing streak. However, it faced selling pressure near the 23,000 mark and formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, indicating supply at higher levels.

The RSI, which had earlier slipped into deeply oversold territory below 25, is now showing signs of recovery and is currently around 37, indicating improving momentum. However, the broader trend remains weak, with the formation of a lower top and lower bottom structure, and only a decisive move above 23,470 would negate the prevailing bearish bias.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 22,500. Although India VIX has corrected nearly 10 percent from its recent highs, it remains elevated around 25, which continues to be a concern for market stability.

Given the overall setup, sustained momentum is likely only on a breakout above 23,460. Until then, pullbacks are expected to face selling pressure.

Key Resistance: 23,000, 23,200

Key Support: 22,500, 22,280

Strategy: Nifty Futures may be considered on the short side below 22,700, with a stop-loss near 23,050 and a downside target of 22,300.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The index witnessed a smart rally, as the Nifty found support around the rising trendline on the daily chart, drawn by connecting the June 2024 low and the April 2025 low. Additionally, the price formation over the last few days is showing signs of fatigue, which is fairly normal after a sharp correction in the recent past. Prices generally consolidate following a sharp move before taking the next course of action.

Besides, a positive divergence is visible on the daily RSI, suggesting the possibility of bullish price momentum in the short term.

Although the broader trend remains weak, favouring the bears, the index’s proximity to the support level, along with the positive RSI divergence, indicates the initial signs of a meaningful recovery in the market. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 22,800, above which the index might move towards 23,000 and higher. On the other hand, a decisive fall below 22,200 could reignite bearish momentum in the market.

Key Resistance: 22,800, 23,000

Key Support: 22,500, 22,200

Strategy: Buy Nifty 23,000 CE of April 7 expiry at Rs 190, with a stop-loss of Rs 160, targeting Rs 250.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse

Bank Nifty also snapped its two-day losing streak and formed a Doji candle on the daily chart, indicating indecisiveness among market participants. The index faced resistance near the 52,000 zone and failed to sustain at higher levels.

While the broader structure remains weak, a short-term pullback on the upside cannot be ruled out. Notably, Bank Nifty witnessed an aggressive rollover of 86.0 percent, significantly higher than 74.3 percent in the previous expiry, suggesting that a large number of short positions have been carried forward into the April series. This raises the possibility of a short-covering rally.

Overall, Bank Nifty appears relatively better compared to Nifty, and a pullback could unfold if it breaks above the recent high of 52,400.

Key Resistance: 52,000, 53,300

Key Support: 51,100, 50,600

Strategy: Based on the current technical setup, traders may consider initiating long positions in Bank Nifty Futures above 52,400, with a stop-loss below 51,650, targeting an upside move towards 53,500.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, underwent its steepest correction in March, plunging nearly 17 percent, marking the sharpest monthly decline since March 2020. The index has printed a large bearish candle on the monthly chart, signaling intense selling pressure and a decisive breakdown in price structure.

The index is currently trading below its key moving averages on both daily and weekly timeframes, which reinforces the bearish trend setup. Momentum indicators continue to remain weak, with the daily RSI slipping into an extremely bearish zone as per RSI range shift rules, highlighting sustained downside momentum and the absence of meaningful buying interest.

Although Bank Nifty witnessed a minor pullback during Wednesday’s session, it failed to sustain at higher levels, indicating that rallies are being sold into. Going ahead, the 52,000–52,100 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area. A sustained breakout above 52,100 could allow the pullback rally to extend towards 52,600, followed by 53,000 in the short term.

On the downside, the 51,000–50,900 zone is likely to act as an important support region. A decisive move below 50,900 would reopen downside risk and could lead the index towards the 50,400 level, resuming the broader corrective trend.

Key Resistance: 52,000, 52,100, 52,600, 53,000

Key Support: 51,000, 50,900, 50,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures between 52,000–52,100, with a stop-loss of 51,600, targeting 53,100.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Bank Nifty closed Wednesday’s session on a positive note, and a Bullish Harami Cross pattern has formed on the daily chart. Besides, a positive crossover is seen on the daily RSI, with the indicator moving out of the oversold zone.

Although the broader market sentiment has not changed completely, the recent technical formation suggests that a meaningful recovery might unfold in the near term. However, any re-escalation of the conflict between the US–Israel and Iran, or rising tensions in other regions, could trigger a negative reaction in the market.

Therefore, a cautious approach is warranted, and one should avoid deploying all capital at the current juncture, as downside risk has not completely subsided.

Key Resistance: 52,500, 53,000

Key Support: 51,000, 50,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty April Futures above 52,000, with a stop-loss of 51,700, targeting 52,500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50, Bank Nifty extend recovery amid Iran war developments, elevated VIX?

Find autos, consumer-facing businesses, financials, EMS, defense, pharma, and data centre-linked stocks attractive from investment perspective, This is an opportune phase to start deploying capital in a calibrated manner, Q4FY26 management commentaries to be watched for clearer cues on earnings trajectories for FY27

* Find autos, consumer-facing businesses, financials, EMS, defense, pharma, and data centre-linked stocks attractive from investment perspective
* This is an opportune phase to start deploying capital in a calibrated manner
* Q4FY26 management commentaries to be watched for clearer cues on earnings trajectories for FY27

shorts/business/daily-voice-deploy-capital-in-a-calibrated-manner-despite-west-asia-uncertainty-narnolia-s-shailendra-kumar-highlights-attractive-sectors

De-escalation is eventually expected, but the situation remains fluid and needs to be tracked very closely until there is far more concrete evidence that a genuine resolution is in place, said Shailendra Kumar, Chief Investment Officer at Narnolia Financial Services in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, the balance of probabilities and risk-reward across scenarios suggests that this is an opportune phase to start deploying capital in a calibrated manner.

At this point, he finds autos, consumer-facing businesses, financials, EMS, defense, pharma, and data centre-linked stocks attractive from an investment perspective.

Do you believe the impact of the war is largely priced in by the market? What could be the worst-case levels for the Nifty 50?

Nifty’s trailing twelve-month P/E recently corrected to 19.6. Historically, over the past decade, every instance of the Nifty’s trailing twelve-month EPS-based P/E falling below 20 has eventually proved to be a compelling entry point for long-term investors.

Equally important, this has not just been a price correction but also a meaningful time correction, with the Indian market remaining in a corrective phase for nearly eighteen months. During this period, the MSCI India Index has materially underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, indicating that a substantial amount of excess optimism has already been unwound.

Admittedly, the economic recovery that had started to take shape earlier this year has faced a setback due to the recent Gulf-related developments. Good prices seldom come with good news. The balance of probabilities and risk-reward across scenarios suggests that this is an opportune phase to start deploying capital in a calibrated manner.

Do you see genuine signs of de-escalation, considering recent commentaries from the US and Iran?

De-escalation is eventually expected; the real question is when it materializes and what the situation around the Strait of Hormuz looks like thereafter. Following the severe US strike on Isfahan on Sunday, there does appear to be some shift in Iran’s stance, while US officials have also begun signaling the possibility of an early resolution.

That said, the situation remains fluid and needs to be tracked very closely until there is far more concrete evidence that a genuine resolution is in place.

What are your expectations from management commentaries for Q4FY26 earnings?

Q4FY26 management commentaries will be closely watched for clearer cues on earnings trajectories for FY27. While the losses for OMCs (oil marketing companies) and margin pressures across certain sectors are largely understood, the more critical monitorables will be demand trends reflected by consumer companies, any signs of rising financial stress highlighted by financials, and on-ground updates from companies such as Larsen &amp;amp; Toubro on project execution, particularly in the Gulf region.

Do you believe the impact of the war will be limited to Q1FY27 earnings and not extend beyond that?

Q1FY27 earnings are almost certain to see some impact. While crude availability itself is not a concern, elevated prices and the resulting under-recoveries for OMCs, along with margin pressures across several industries, are likely to persist through Q1FY27.

On natural gas, we expect availability constraints to ease by the middle of the quarter, as the challenge here is less about global supply and more about diversification of sourcing and the logistics-related time lag involved in rerouting supplies. India accounts for only about 1.6% of global natural gas consumption, which makes this issue relatively more manageable over time.

The LPG situation, however, could remain more challenging for longer if conditions around the Strait of Hormuz do not improve. India consumes nearly 10% of global LPG supply, and despite some diversification of sourcing and higher domestic production, the country still needs to import roughly 8–9 MMT from the Gulf region out of its total annual requirement of around 31.5 MMT.

Do you expect earnings upgrades in the IT sector due to rupee depreciation? Also, do you see limited downside in the IT space?

The Nifty IT Index, on a trailing twelve-month P/E basis, is now trading close to that of Nifty despite its underlying earnings growth likely remaining lower than that of the broader market. While we have recently moderated our underweight stance on IT at the margin, we continue to remain cautious on the sector. We also do not expect the current pace of rupee depreciation to sustain for much longer.

Are you still avoiding quality stocks despite attractive valuations, or have you started buying during the current correction?

We remain constructive on quality stocks, particularly as valuations across many large-cap quality names have turned highly attractive. Notably, the Nifty FMCG Index is now trading near its 15-year valuation lows. A large part of India’s quality universe is domestic consumer-facing, and if the monsoon remains favourable this year, we expect a meaningful demand revival across several of these businesses.

Which themes or sectors are attracting your investments, especially after the significant sell-off in March?

At this point, we find autos, consumer-facing businesses, financials, EMS, defense, pharma, and data centre-linked stocks attractive from an investment perspective.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Deploy capital in a calibrated manner despite West Asia uncertainty; Narnolia's Shailendra Kumar highlights attractive sectors

13 out of 18 years NIFTY 500 has given positive returns in April.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	21,103.13	21,271.12	21,388.98	20,985.27	20,817.28	20,699.42	20,531.43
Fibonacci	21,094.46	21,161.92	21,271.12	20,985.27	20,876.07	20,808.61	20,699.42
Camarilla	20,961.35	20,987.56	21,013.76	20,985.27	20,908.95	20,882.74	20,856.54

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY 500

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

News

Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers