NIFTY 500

Iran War impact visible in aviation, logistics, paints, chemicals in Q4, See second leg of repricing if US-Iran conflict extends — driven by fundamentals, not fear, Focus on RBI April policy commentary for early signals on how central bank reading growth-inflation trade-off

* Iran War impact visible in aviation, logistics, paints, chemicals in Q4
* See second leg of repricing if US-Iran conflict extends — driven by fundamentals, not fear
* Focus on RBI April policy commentary for early signals on how central bank reading growth-inflation trade-off

shorts/business/daily-voice-valtrust-s-rahul-bhutoria-warns-of-second-leg-of-market-repricing-if-us-iran-conflict-drags-on

* Iran War impact visible in aviation, logistics, paints, chemicals in Q4
* See second leg of repricing if US-Iran conflict extends — driven by fundamentals, not fear
* Focus on RBI April policy commentary for early signals on how central bank reading growth-inflation trade-off

According to Rahul Bhutoria, the Director and Co-Founder of Valtrust, the market is currently assuming a swift de-escalation. If that assumption proves correct, the fear peak is in.

"If the conflict extends, we'll see a second leg of repricing — not on fear, but on fundamentals," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Further, in case of growth, if oil averages $90+ for an extended period; that combination of fiscal pressure and the limited room for further monetary easing could trim 25–30 bps from growth, he feels.

Hence, he is focussing on the RBI's April policy commentary closely for early signals on how the central bank is reading the growth-inflation trade-off.

Do you think the peak of fear has already been priced in by the market, unless a completely unforeseen incident occurs in Iran?

Markets have partially priced the geopolitical shock, but not the full macro impact. The initial Hormuz disruption triggered a fear premium in oil and a sell-off in risk assets — that knee-jerk move may be largely behind us. What hasn't been fully priced in is the sustained economic consequence if disruption persists: a potential widening in India's current account deficit, rupee pressure, and the inflationary pass-through from elevated crude.

The disruption extends beyond crude oil — approximately 20 percent of global LNG supply transits the same strait, with Qatar alone accounting for a significant share. India's LNG-dependent sectors, including fertilisers, city gas distribution, and industrial users, face a parallel supply and cost risk that the market has not yet fully reflected.

The market is currently assuming a swift de-escalation. If that assumption proves correct, the fear peak is in. If the conflict extends, we'll see a second leg of repricing — not on fear, but on fundamentals.

Do you expect the market to consolidate over the next couple of weeks and move back above record-high levels towards the end of March? Can the market still deliver around 15 percent returns in CY2026?

Consolidation in the near term is the base case. The primary variable now is the trajectory of crude — the monetary cushion available if oil-driven inflation re-accelerates. If Brent settles back below $85 a barrel over the next two weeks, domestic macro drivers — an improving earnings cycle, government capex, and rural consumption recovery — can take over. A return to record highs by end-March is possible but requires the geopolitical risk premium to compress meaningfully.

On 15 percent returns for CY2026: unlikely in the current environment — though one can never say never. The bar is materially higher now. It requires a mid-year earnings recovery, continued strength in domestic flows, sustained FPI re-engagement, and no second-order macro surprises. All four conditions need to hold simultaneously.

Do you think the impact of AI on Indian IT companies will be quite significant and has not yet been fully priced into the stocks?

AI is a near-term disruption risk for Indian IT services and potentially a meaningful growth driver further out — but the narrative is more nuanced than either the bulls or bears acknowledge. The market has priced some risk, but not the eventual upside from AI-led deal flow.

Top-tier firms — TCS, Infosys, and HCL Technologies — are investing heavily in AI capability, yet GenAI revenue contribution remains a fraction of total. The compression in discretionary spend globally, combined with client caution in the wake of US tariff uncertainty, means near-term earnings visibility is low.

Valuations are therefore something we are watching closely. If the sector corrects further, the margin of safety could become compelling, and we would be comfortable gaining exposure through active IT funds, IT ETFs, or selective direct investments.

Importantly, the narrative that AI will dramatically shrink technology employment is being challenged by current data. Demand for AI-skilled professionals has surged over the last few years and companies are paying significant wage premiums for those skills. In many ways, AI is expanding the opportunity set for technology services rather than eliminating it — and Indian IT firms, with their deep engineering talent pools, are well positioned to benefit as enterprise adoption accelerates.

If war-related fears ease sooner rather than later, do you believe the economic growth projections will remain unchanged?

Broadly yes, with a caveat. India's FY26 growth estimate of 6.4–6.7 percent was built on assumptions of crude averaging $70–75 per barrel and a stable current account. A brief disruption — resolved within four weeks — would leave full-year numbers largely intact, with perhaps a 10–15 bps shave at the margin. The risk is a scenario where oil averages $90+ for an extended period; that combination of fiscal pressure and the limited room for further monetary easing could trim 25–30 bps from growth.

Beyond the macro numbers, the corporate-level impact deserves attention. A sustained oil shock cascades through raw material costs and supply chains in ways that compress margins even before topline growth is affected. Sectors with high crude-derivative content in their input baskets — paints, chemicals, FMCG packaging, logistics — will see cost-push pressure that takes multiple quarters to resolve through pricing action or procurement renegotiation. We are watching the RBI's April policy commentary closely for early signals on how the central bank is reading the growth-inflation trade-off.

Do you see any minor impact of the Iran war on Q4 earnings? Which sectors are likely to drive growth?

Q4 impact will be modest but visible — primarily in aviation, logistics, and input-cost sensitive sectors like paints and chemicals. LNG price spikes also merit attention — city gas distribution companies and fertiliser manufacturers with spot LNG exposure could see meaningful input cost pressure if the disruption persists into Q4.

The sectors likely to drive growth are financials (strong credit cycle, NIM resilience), healthcare (domestic formulations and US generics recovery), and energy (upstream companies such as ONGC benefiting from higher realisations, though policy dynamics remain a factor). Domestic consumption plays with limited commodity linkage — select FMCG and QSR names — should also deliver steady numbers.

Do you see attractive valuations in the defence and healthcare segments?

Healthcare, yes — particularly domestic formulations and hospital chains where earnings visibility is high and valuations have corrected to reasonable levels after the recent market drawdown.

Defence is more nuanced. Structural order inflows are strong, but valuations in several names still price in a near-perfect execution scenario. We prefer companies with diversified order books and proven delivery track records over pure-play thematic bets. Selective accumulation makes sense; blanket exposure does not.

Are you fully invested in the market at this point in time?

We are running a slight underweight versus our normal allocation. The short-term geopolitical uncertainty justifies keeping some dry powder — not because we are bearish on India structurally, but because the risk-reward for deploying aggressively today is asymmetric.

Any meaningful correction, particularly in high-quality domestic compounders caught in the broad sell-off, would be an opportunity to close that gap quickly. Patience here is being paid for with optionality.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Ownership, Material Conflicts of Interest and Disciplinary History

MCD is a wholly owned subsidiary of Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd ("Network18"), in which Independent Media Trust (IMT) holds 56.89% stake. Reliance Industries Limited ("RIL") is the sole beneficiary of IMT. Network18 and RIL and their subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates can be considered as associates of MCD.

Details of Associate

Receipt of Compensation

Third-Party Compensation

Employment History

Market-Making Activities

Use of Artificial Intelligence

Daily Voice: Valtrust’s Rahul Bhutoria warns of second leg of market repricing if US-Iran conflict drags on

According to Rahul Bhutoria, the Director and Co-Founder of Valtrust, the market is currently assuming a swift de-escalation. If that assumption proves correct, the fear peak is in.

&quot;If the conflict extends, we'll see a second leg of repricing — not on fear, but on fundamentals,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Further, in case of growth, if oil averages $90+ for an extended period; that combination of fiscal pressure and the limited room for further monetary easing could trim 25–30 bps from growth, he feels.

Hence, he is focussing on the RBI's April policy commentary closely for early signals on how the central bank is reading the growth-inflation trade-off.

Do you think the peak of fear has already been priced in by the market, unless a completely unforeseen incident occurs in Iran?

Markets have partially priced the geopolitical shock, but not the full macro impact. The initial Hormuz disruption triggered a fear premium in oil and a sell-off in risk assets — that knee-jerk move may be largely behind us. What hasn't been fully priced in is the sustained economic consequence if disruption persists: a potential widening in India's current account deficit, rupee pressure, and the inflationary pass-through from elevated crude.

The disruption extends beyond crude oil — approximately 20 percent of global LNG supply transits the same strait, with Qatar alone accounting for a significant share. India's LNG-dependent sectors, including fertilisers, city gas distribution, and industrial users, face a parallel supply and cost risk that the market has not yet fully reflected.

The market is currently assuming a swift de-escalation. If that assumption proves correct, the fear peak is in. If the conflict extends, we'll see a second leg of repricing — not on fear, but on fundamentals.

Do you expect the market to consolidate over the next couple of weeks and move back above record-high levels towards the end of March? Can the market still deliver around 15 percent returns in CY2026?

Consolidation in the near term is the base case. The primary variable now is the trajectory of crude — the monetary cushion available if oil-driven inflation re-accelerates. If Brent settles back below $85 a barrel over the next two weeks, domestic macro drivers — an improving earnings cycle, government capex, and rural consumption recovery — can take over. A return to record highs by end-March is possible but requires the geopolitical risk premium to compress meaningfully.

On 15 percent returns for CY2026: unlikely in the current environment — though one can never say never. The bar is materially higher now. It requires a mid-year earnings recovery, continued strength in domestic flows, sustained FPI re-engagement, and no second-order macro surprises. All four conditions need to hold simultaneously.

Do you think the impact of AI on Indian IT companies will be quite significant and has not yet been fully priced into the stocks?

AI is a near-term disruption risk for Indian IT services and potentially a meaningful growth driver further out — but the narrative is more nuanced than either the bulls or bears acknowledge. The market has priced some risk, but not the eventual upside from AI-led deal flow.

Top-tier firms — TCS, Infosys, and HCL Technologies — are investing heavily in AI capability, yet GenAI revenue contribution remains a fraction of total. The compression in discretionary spend globally, combined with client caution in the wake of US tariff uncertainty, means near-term earnings visibility is low.

Valuations are therefore something we are watching closely. If the sector corrects further, the margin of safety could become compelling, and we would be comfortable gaining exposure through active IT funds, IT ETFs, or selective direct investments.

Importantly, the narrative that AI will dramatically shrink technology employment is being challenged by current data. Demand for AI-skilled professionals has surged over the last few years and companies are paying significant wage premiums for those skills. In many ways, AI is expanding the opportunity set for technology services rather than eliminating it — and Indian IT firms, with their deep engineering talent pools, are well positioned to benefit as enterprise adoption accelerates.

If war-related fears ease sooner rather than later, do you believe the economic growth projections will remain unchanged?

Broadly yes, with a caveat. India's FY26 growth estimate of 6.4–6.7 percent was built on assumptions of crude averaging $70–75 per barrel and a stable current account. A brief disruption — resolved within four weeks — would leave full-year numbers largely intact, with perhaps a 10–15 bps shave at the margin. The risk is a scenario where oil averages $90+ for an extended period; that combination of fiscal pressure and the limited room for further monetary easing could trim 25–30 bps from growth.

Beyond the macro numbers, the corporate-level impact deserves attention. A sustained oil shock cascades through raw material costs and supply chains in ways that compress margins even before topline growth is affected. Sectors with high crude-derivative content in their input baskets — paints, chemicals, FMCG packaging, logistics — will see cost-push pressure that takes multiple quarters to resolve through pricing action or procurement renegotiation. We are watching the RBI's April policy commentary closely for early signals on how the central bank is reading the growth-inflation trade-off.

Do you see any minor impact of the Iran war on Q4 earnings? Which sectors are likely to drive growth?

Q4 impact will be modest but visible — primarily in aviation, logistics, and input-cost sensitive sectors like paints and chemicals. LNG price spikes also merit attention — city gas distribution companies and fertiliser manufacturers with spot LNG exposure could see meaningful input cost pressure if the disruption persists into Q4.

The sectors likely to drive growth are financials (strong credit cycle, NIM resilience), healthcare (domestic formulations and US generics recovery), and energy (upstream companies such as ONGC benefiting from higher realisations, though policy dynamics remain a factor). Domestic consumption plays with limited commodity linkage — select FMCG and QSR names — should also deliver steady numbers.

Do you see attractive valuations in the defence and healthcare segments?

Healthcare, yes — particularly domestic formulations and hospital chains where earnings visibility is high and valuations have corrected to reasonable levels after the recent market drawdown.

Defence is more nuanced. Structural order inflows are strong, but valuations in several names still price in a near-perfect execution scenario. We prefer companies with diversified order books and proven delivery track records over pure-play thematic bets. Selective accumulation makes sense; blanket exposure does not.

Are you fully invested in the market at this point in time?

We are running a slight underweight versus our normal allocation. The short-term geopolitical uncertainty justifies keeping some dry powder — not because we are bearish on India structurally, but because the risk-reward for deploying aggressively today is asymmetric.

Any meaningful correction, particularly in high-quality domestic compounders caught in the broad sell-off, would be an opportunity to close that gap quickly. Patience here is being paid for with optionality.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Widening MACD histogram indicates strengthening downside momentum in Nifty 50, Decisive and sustained breach below 24,300 could accelerate downside move in Nifty, Considering current chart structure and overall market setup, Sudeep recommends a sell on rally approach

* Widening MACD histogram indicates strengthening downside momentum in Nifty 50
* Decisive and sustained breach below 24,300 could accelerate downside move in Nifty
* Considering current chart structure and overall market setup, Sudeep recommends a sell on rally approach

shorts/business/chartist-talk-sudeep-shah-sees-this-sectoral-index-extending-gains-shares-2-stock-picks-for-next-week

* Widening MACD histogram indicates strengthening downside momentum in Nifty 50
* Decisive and sustained breach below 24,300 could accelerate downside move in Nifty
* Considering current chart structure and overall market setup, Sudeep recommends a sell on rally approach

Given the strong technical and momentum setup, the Nifty India Defence index is well positioned to continue its northward journey in the short term, with dips likely to attract buying interest, said Sudeep Shah, the Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Adding to this strength, according to him, the ratio chart of Nifty India Defence versus Nifty has broken above a downward sloping trendline on the daily timeframe—an indication that the defence sector is entering a fresh phase of relative outperformance.

He bets on ABB India, and National Aluminium Company (NALCO) for next week. "With Friday’s close, ABB has also moved above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which suggests strengthening price momentum and a higher likelihood of further upside in the near term, while NALCO has closed above the upper Bollinger Band for two consecutive sessions, suggesting strong buying pressure and the possibility of continued upward momentum in the near term," he reasoned

Do you think the situation is so severe that the Nifty 50 could easily break the crucial 24,000 support next week, or is 24,300 a strong support level?

The domestic equity markets experienced a volatile week, primarily influenced by rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. The growing uncertainty in West Asia kept investors on edge, exerting pressure on the frontline indices. Consequently, the benchmark index Nifty witnessed sharp fluctuations throughout the week, with each trading session opening either with a gap-up or gap-down, reflecting the nervousness prevailing across global markets. The impact of these tensions was not confined to equities alone, as several key global macro indicators also began signalling heightened risk.

Brent crude oil prices climbed to their highest level in 85 weeks amid concerns over potential supply disruptions from West Asia. Simultaneously, the Indian rupee weakened significantly, with the USD/INR pair touching a record low of 92.30 before seeing a modest recovery. Adding to the risk-averse environment, India VIX — the market’s volatility index — surged nearly 45% during the week to reach a nine-month high, underscoring the sharp rise in market uncertainty. Against this backdrop of global turbulence, the benchmark index has begun displaying clear signs of technical fragility.

From a price action standpoint, the benchmark index has declined by more than 7% from its recent record highs, indicating a phase of profit booking triggered by global uncertainties. This decline has also pushed the index below several important short-term and medium-term moving averages. In particular, the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) have started turning downward, which technically points to weakening near-term momentum. However, a closer examination of momentum indicators suggests that the downward pressure may still persist.

Momentum indicators continue to paint a cautious picture. The daily RSI has slipped below the 40 level and remains in a declining trajectory. At the same time, the daily MACD is positioned in bearish territory, trading below both the zero line and its signal line. The widening MACD histogram further indicates strengthening downside momentum. This naturally raises the key question for traders and investors — which levels should be closely monitored in the coming sessions?

Looking ahead, market movements are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and shifts in global risk sentiment. Given the prevailing uncertainty, the index may continue to witness sharp price swings in the near term. Technically, the 24,350–24,300 zone is expected to act as a crucial support area, as it aligns with a previous swing low. A decisive and sustained breach below 24,300 could accelerate the downside move, potentially pushing the index towards 24,000 and subsequently 23,800 in the short term. On the upside, the 24,800–24,850 range is likely to serve as an immediate resistance zone.

Do you expect the sell-on-rally strategy to continue until the Nifty 50 moves back above 25,500?

Considering the current chart structure and overall market setup, we continue to recommend a sell on rally approach.

Do you see the Bank Nifty easily breaking its long-term moving average, the 200-day EMA, next week?

The Bank Nifty, which had been outperforming the frontline indices until just a few sessions ago, faced a sharp reversal last week. The index tumbled 4.54 percent, marking a significant underperformance compared to the broader market. This decline resulted in the formation of a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, indicating strong selling pressure and a clear shift in sentiment within the banking space.

With this correction, the Bank Nifty has slipped decisively below its 20-50-100-day EMA levels, reinforcing the weakening trend. It is now inching closer to its crucial 200-day EMA, a zone widely tracked by institutional participants for long term trend confirmation.

Momentum indicators also echo this bearish tone. The daily RSI has fallen below the 40 mark for the first time since September 2025, signalling growing downside momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows an expansion on the negative side, suggesting an acceleration in bearish pressure.

Given this setup, the banking index is likely to extend its downward trajectory over the next few trading sessions unless strong buying emerges at lower levels. In terms of key levels, the 200-day EMA zone of 57,500–57,400 will act as a vital support area. A sustained move below 57,400 could trigger further decline toward 56,800, and subsequently 56,000, in the short term. On the upside, any recovery attempt is expected to face resistance near the 58,700–58,800 zone, which will act as an important hurdle for the index.

Do you think defence stocks such as <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/ship-building/mazagondockshipbuilders/MDS01">Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aerospacedefence/bharatdynamics/BDL01">Bharat Dynamics</a> will continue their uptrend next week as well, especially after their healthy run during the week?

The Nifty India Defence index has delivered a strong technical breakout, ending a prolonged 22-week consolidation phase and forming a sizeable bullish candle on the weekly chart. This breakout signals renewed strength and confirms the continuation of its primary uptrend. In the previous week, the index significantly outperformed the frontline indices, reflecting robust sectoral momentum and sustained buying interest.

Adding to this strength, the ratio chart of Nifty India Defence versus Nifty has broken above a downward sloping trendline on the daily timeframe—an indication that the defence sector is entering a fresh phase of relative outperformance. All key moving averages are aligned in favour of the bulls, and momentum indicators—both price and oscillator based—are pointing towards strong upside traction. Given this setup, the index is well positioned to continue its northward journey in the short term, with dips likely to attract buying interest.

Stocks such as Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd and Bharat Dynamics Ltd have rebounded strongly from their recent lows, supported by a healthy pickup in volumes. Momentum indicators also signal improvement, with the RSI recovering sharply from sub-40 levels, indicating renewed bullish momentum. Additionally, DI+ trading above DI– in the ADX indicator highlights a stronger presence of buyers over sellers.

Both stocks have also reclaimed their key short-term moving average of the 20-day EMA on the daily chart. As long as they hold above their recent swing lows, the upmove could extend further.

Which two stocks are currently on your buying radar for next week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/infrastructure-general/abbindia/ABB">ABB</a>

ABB Ltd has given a Rs 6,073–5,794 consolidation breakout on the daily chart. Despite sideways movement over the last three sessions, the stock managed to hold above its 20-day EMA, indicating strong short-term support. The RSI has rebounded from 53 and settled marginally above 60, signalling a pickup in bullish momentum.

With Friday’s close, the stock has also moved above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which suggests strengthening price momentum and a higher likelihood of further upside in the near term. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 6,070-6,010 with a stop-loss of Rs 5,850. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 6,500 in the short term.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aluminium/nationalaluminiumcompany/NAC">National Aluminium Company</a>

National Aluminium Company has given a Rs 392–329 February consolidation breakout on the daily chart. The breakout was accompanied by a healthy rise in volumes, indicating strong participation from buyers. The RSI is trending higher and has moved above 60, signalling strengthening bullish momentum.

Additionally, the DI+ has crossed above DI– on the ADX indicator, highlighting the growing dominance of buyers over sellers. The stock has also closed above the upper Bollinger Band for two consecutive sessions, suggesting strong buying pressure and the possibility of continued upward momentum in the near term. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 398-394 with a stop-loss of Rs 382. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 430 in the short term.

Are <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/refineries/mangalorerefinerypetrochemicals/MRP">Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals</a> Limited and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aerospacedefence/datapatternsindia/DPI01">Data Patterns (India)</a> Limited inching closer to overbought zones?

Data Patterns has recently given a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily chart, which is supported by a healthy rise in volumes. The RSI is currently around 75, indicating strong momentum. While this places the stock near the overbought zone, it still leaves some room for further upside, especially considering the improving relative strength in the defence space against the Nifty 50. Additionally, the rising ADX suggests strengthening bullish trend strength.

On the other hand, MRPL staged a sharp rebound from its 20-day EMA about three sessions ago, again backed by strong volumes. Its RSI is hovering near 67, which remains below the overbought zone and indicates potential for further upside. As long as key support levels hold, both stocks could continue their upward trajectory.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist Talk: Sudeep Shah sees this sectoral index extending gains; shares 2 stock picks for next week

Given the strong technical and momentum setup, the Nifty India Defence index is well positioned to continue its northward journey in the short term, with dips likely to attract buying interest, said Sudeep Shah, the Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Adding to this strength, according to him, the ratio chart of Nifty India Defence versus Nifty has broken above a downward sloping trendline on the daily timeframe—an indication that the defence sector is entering a fresh phase of relative outperformance.

He bets on ABB India, and National Aluminium Company (NALCO) for next week. &quot;With Friday’s close, ABB has also moved above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which suggests strengthening price momentum and a higher likelihood of further upside in the near term, while NALCO has closed above the upper Bollinger Band for two consecutive sessions, suggesting strong buying pressure and the possibility of continued upward momentum in the near term,&quot; he reasoned

Do you think the situation is so severe that the Nifty 50 could easily break the crucial 24,000 support next week, or is 24,300 a strong support level?

The domestic equity markets experienced a volatile week, primarily influenced by rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. The growing uncertainty in West Asia kept investors on edge, exerting pressure on the frontline indices. Consequently, the benchmark index Nifty witnessed sharp fluctuations throughout the week, with each trading session opening either with a gap-up or gap-down, reflecting the nervousness prevailing across global markets. The impact of these tensions was not confined to equities alone, as several key global macro indicators also began signalling heightened risk.

Brent crude oil prices climbed to their highest level in 85 weeks amid concerns over potential supply disruptions from West Asia. Simultaneously, the Indian rupee weakened significantly, with the USD/INR pair touching a record low of 92.30 before seeing a modest recovery. Adding to the risk-averse environment, India VIX — the market’s volatility index — surged nearly 45% during the week to reach a nine-month high, underscoring the sharp rise in market uncertainty. Against this backdrop of global turbulence, the benchmark index has begun displaying clear signs of technical fragility.

From a price action standpoint, the benchmark index has declined by more than 7% from its recent record highs, indicating a phase of profit booking triggered by global uncertainties. This decline has also pushed the index below several important short-term and medium-term moving averages. In particular, the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) have started turning downward, which technically points to weakening near-term momentum. However, a closer examination of momentum indicators suggests that the downward pressure may still persist.

Momentum indicators continue to paint a cautious picture. The daily RSI has slipped below the 40 level and remains in a declining trajectory. At the same time, the daily MACD is positioned in bearish territory, trading below both the zero line and its signal line. The widening MACD histogram further indicates strengthening downside momentum. This naturally raises the key question for traders and investors — which levels should be closely monitored in the coming sessions?

Looking ahead, market movements are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and shifts in global risk sentiment. Given the prevailing uncertainty, the index may continue to witness sharp price swings in the near term. Technically, the 24,350–24,300 zone is expected to act as a crucial support area, as it aligns with a previous swing low. A decisive and sustained breach below 24,300 could accelerate the downside move, potentially pushing the index towards 24,000 and subsequently 23,800 in the short term. On the upside, the 24,800–24,850 range is likely to serve as an immediate resistance zone.

Do you expect the sell-on-rally strategy to continue until the Nifty 50 moves back above 25,500?

Considering the current chart structure and overall market setup, we continue to recommend a sell on rally approach.

Do you see the Bank Nifty easily breaking its long-term moving average, the 200-day EMA, next week?

The Bank Nifty, which had been outperforming the frontline indices until just a few sessions ago, faced a sharp reversal last week. The index tumbled 4.54 percent, marking a significant underperformance compared to the broader market. This decline resulted in the formation of a large bearish candle on the weekly chart, indicating strong selling pressure and a clear shift in sentiment within the banking space.

With this correction, the Bank Nifty has slipped decisively below its 20-50-100-day EMA levels, reinforcing the weakening trend. It is now inching closer to its crucial 200-day EMA, a zone widely tracked by institutional participants for long term trend confirmation.

Momentum indicators also echo this bearish tone. The daily RSI has fallen below the 40 mark for the first time since September 2025, signalling growing downside momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram shows an expansion on the negative side, suggesting an acceleration in bearish pressure.

Given this setup, the banking index is likely to extend its downward trajectory over the next few trading sessions unless strong buying emerges at lower levels. In terms of key levels, the 200-day EMA zone of 57,500–57,400 will act as a vital support area. A sustained move below 57,400 could trigger further decline toward 56,800, and subsequently 56,000, in the short term. On the upside, any recovery attempt is expected to face resistance near the 58,700–58,800 zone, which will act as an important hurdle for the index.

Do you think defence stocks such as Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Bharat Dynamics will continue their uptrend next week as well, especially after their healthy run during the week?

The Nifty India Defence index has delivered a strong technical breakout, ending a prolonged 22-week consolidation phase and forming a sizeable bullish candle on the weekly chart. This breakout signals renewed strength and confirms the continuation of its primary uptrend. In the previous week, the index significantly outperformed the frontline indices, reflecting robust sectoral momentum and sustained buying interest.

Adding to this strength, the ratio chart of Nifty India Defence versus Nifty has broken above a downward sloping trendline on the daily timeframe—an indication that the defence sector is entering a fresh phase of relative outperformance. All key moving averages are aligned in favour of the bulls, and momentum indicators—both price and oscillator based—are pointing towards strong upside traction. Given this setup, the index is well positioned to continue its northward journey in the short term, with dips likely to attract buying interest.

Stocks such as Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd and Bharat Dynamics Ltd have rebounded strongly from their recent lows, supported by a healthy pickup in volumes. Momentum indicators also signal improvement, with the RSI recovering sharply from sub-40 levels, indicating renewed bullish momentum. Additionally, DI+ trading above DI– in the ADX indicator highlights a stronger presence of buyers over sellers.

Both stocks have also reclaimed their key short-term moving average of the 20-day EMA on the daily chart. As long as they hold above their recent swing lows, the upmove could extend further.

Which two stocks are currently on your buying radar for next week?

ABB

ABB Ltd has given a Rs 6,073–5,794 consolidation breakout on the daily chart. Despite sideways movement over the last three sessions, the stock managed to hold above its 20-day EMA, indicating strong short-term support. The RSI has rebounded from 53 and settled marginally above 60, signalling a pickup in bullish momentum.

With Friday’s close, the stock has also moved above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, which suggests strengthening price momentum and a higher likelihood of further upside in the near term. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 6,070-6,010 with a stop-loss of Rs 5,850. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 6,500 in the short term.

National Aluminium Company

National Aluminium Company has given a Rs 392–329 February consolidation breakout on the daily chart. The breakout was accompanied by a healthy rise in volumes, indicating strong participation from buyers. The RSI is trending higher and has moved above 60, signalling strengthening bullish momentum.

Additionally, the DI+ has crossed above DI– on the ADX indicator, highlighting the growing dominance of buyers over sellers. The stock has also closed above the upper Bollinger Band for two consecutive sessions, suggesting strong buying pressure and the possibility of continued upward momentum in the near term. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 398-394 with a stop-loss of Rs 382. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 430 in the short term.

Are Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited and Data Patterns (India) Limited inching closer to overbought zones?

Data Patterns has recently given a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily chart, which is supported by a healthy rise in volumes. The RSI is currently around 75, indicating strong momentum. While this places the stock near the overbought zone, it still leaves some room for further upside, especially considering the improving relative strength in the defence space against the Nifty 50. Additionally, the rising ADX suggests strengthening bullish trend strength.

On the other hand, MRPL staged a sharp rebound from its 20-day EMA about three sessions ago, again backed by strong volumes. Its RSI is hovering near 67, which remains below the overbought zone and indicates potential for further upside. As long as key support levels hold, both stocks could continue their upward trajectory.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex fell 2.91 percent, Nifty dropped 2.89 percent this week, FIIs sold Rs 21,831 crore, DIIs bought Rs 32,786 crore, Nifty PSU Bank index fell 6.5%, Defence index rose 5%

* Sensex fell 2.91 percent, Nifty dropped 2.89 percent this week
* FIIs sold Rs 21,831 crore, DIIs bought Rs 32,786 crore
* Nifty PSU Bank index fell 6.5%, Defence index rose 5%

Indian equity markets fell amid US-Iran tensions, rising crude prices, weak global cues, rupee decline, and FII selling. Sensex dropped 2.91%, Nifty 2.89%. Most sectoral indices declined; Nifty Defence gained. FIIs sold Rs 21,831 crore, DIIs bought Rs 32,786 crore.

shorts/business/sensex-nifty-see-steepest-weekly-fall-in-over-a-year-rupee-at-record-low

* Sensex fell 2.91 percent, Nifty dropped 2.89 percent this week
* FIIs sold Rs 21,831 crore, DIIs bought Rs 32,786 crore
* Nifty PSU Bank index fell 6.5%, Defence index rose 5%

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853532" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307035927_stock_market_Sensex-Nifty.jpg" alt="In the truncated week, Indian equity markets remained under pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp jump in crude oil prices. Weak global cues, a declining rupee, and persistent FII selling further weighed on investor sentiment." width="1280" height="720" /> In the truncated week, Indian equity markets remained under pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp jump in crude oil prices. Weak global cues, a declining rupee, and persistent FII selling further weighed on investor sentiment.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853533" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307035946_Nifty_sensex.jpg" alt="During the week, the BSE Sensex slipped 2,368.29 points, or 2.91 percent, to finish at 78,918.90, while the Nifty50 shed 728.2 points, or 2.89 percent, to close at 24,450.45." width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, the BSE Sensex slipped 2,368.29 points, or 2.91 percent, to finish at 78,918.90, while the Nifty50 shed 728.2 points, or 2.89 percent, to close at 24,450.45.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853538" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040142_stocks5.jpg" alt="The BSE Smallcap index fell 3.3 percent during the week, with InfoBeans Technologies, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Orchid Pharma, Sadhana Nitrochem, Rajesh Exports, Netweb Technologies India, Agarwal Industrial Corporation, JTL Industries, D. P. Abhushan, Stallion India Fluorochemicals falling between 15-25 percent. On the other hand, Jindal Poly Films, Jindal Drilling Industries, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company, Ruby Mills, Paras Defence and Space Technologies, Antelopus Selan Energy, Axtel Industries, Sterlite Technologies, Jupiter Wagons added between 12-25 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Smallcap index fell 3.3 percent during the week, with InfoBeans Technologies, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Orchid Pharma, Sadhana Nitrochem, Rajesh Exports, Netweb Technologies India, Agarwal Industrial Corporation, JTL Industries, D. P. Abhushan, Stallion India Fluorochemicals falling between 15-25 percent. On the other hand, Jindal Poly Films, Jindal Drilling Industries, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company, Ruby Mills, Paras Defence and Space Technologies, Antelopus Selan Energy, Axtel Industries, Sterlite Technologies, and Jupiter Wagons added between 12 and 25 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853539" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040211_market_stocks_sensex_Nifty.jpg" alt="The BSE Largecap index fell 3 percent during the week, with Indian Oil Corporation, Lodha Developers, Adani Green Energy, Interglobe Aviation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bosch, GAIL India, Godrej Consumer Products, Bank Of Baroda fell between 8-10 percent, while gainers were Solar Industries India, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics, Hindalco Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Largecap index fell 3 percent during the week, with Indian Oil Corporation, Lodha Developers, Adani Green Energy, Interglobe Aviation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bosch, GAIL India, Godrej Consumer Products, Bank Of Baroda fell between 8-10 percent, while gainers were Solar Industries India, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics, Hindalco Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853541" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040240_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="The BSE Midcap index shed 3 percent during the week dragged by Aegis Vopak Terminals, Petronet LNG, Rail Vikas Nigam, LT Technology Services, KPIT Technologies, Bank Of India, while gainers included National Aluminium Company, United Breweries, Bharat Dynamics, JSW Infrastructure." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Midcap index shed 3 percent during the week, dragged by Aegis Vopak Terminals, Petronet LNG, Rail Vikas Nigam, LT Technology Services, KPIT Technologies, Bank of India, while gainers included National Aluminium Company, United Breweries, Bharat Dynamics, JSW Infrastructure.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853542" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040312_sensex_nifty_market_Nifty_nse_bse.jpg" alt="Most sectoral indices ended in the red during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index declined 6.5 percent, followed by the Nifty Realty index which fell 5 percent. The Nifty Bank index dropped 4.5 percent, while the Nifty Media index slipped 4.3 percent and the Nifty Private Bank index shed 4 percent. However, the Nifty Defence index bucked the trend, gaining nearly 5 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> Most sectoral indices ended in the red during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index declined 6.5 percent, followed by the Nifty Realty index, which fell 5 percent. The Nifty Bank index dropped 4.5 percent, while the Nifty Media index slipped 4.3 percent and the Nifty Private Bank index shed 4 percent. However, the Nifty Defence index bucked the trend, gaining nearly 5 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853543" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040334_nifty_sensex_stocks.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 21,831.19 crore, extending their selling streak to the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 32,786.92 crore, during the week." width="1280" height="720" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 21,831.19 crore, extending their selling streak to the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 32,786.92 crore, during the week.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853544" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040404_Nifty_sensex_marketup.jpg" alt="During the week, State Bank of India witnessed the largest decline in its market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Larsen &amp; Toubro, and HDFC Bank. On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries saw an increase in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, State Bank of India witnessed the largest decline in its market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Larsen &amp; Toubro, and HDFC Bank. On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries saw an increase in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.)

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789262" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031938_rupee_fall.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee touched fresh record low against the US dollar in this week amid surging crude oil prices. However, it made a strong recovery to end lower by 77 paise at 91.74 on March 6, compared with 90.97 on March 27. During the week, the domestic currency moved within a band of 91.22 to 92.30." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian rupee touched a fresh record low against the US dollar this week amid surging crude oil prices. However, it made a strong recovery to end lower by 77 paise at 91.74 on March 6, compared with 90.97 on March 27. During the week, the domestic currency moved within a band of 91.22 to 92.30.

The Indian rupee fell to a fresh record low of 92.30 per US dollar during the week.

In the truncated week, Indian equity markets remained under pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp jump in crude oil prices. Weak global cues, a declining rupee, and persistent FII selling further weighed on investor sentiment.

During the week, the BSE Sensex slipped 2,368.29 points, or 2.91 percent, to finish at 78,918.90, while the Nifty50 shed 728.2 points, or 2.89 percent, to close at 24,450.45.

The BSE Smallcap index fell 3.3 percent during the week, with InfoBeans Technologies, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Orchid Pharma, Sadhana Nitrochem, Rajesh Exports, Netweb Technologies India, Agarwal Industrial Corporation, JTL Industries, D. P. Abhushan, Stallion India Fluorochemicals falling between 15-25 percent. On the other hand, Jindal Poly Films, Jindal Drilling Industries, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company, Ruby Mills, Paras Defence and Space Technologies, Antelopus Selan Energy, Axtel Industries, Sterlite Technologies, Jupiter Wagons added between 12-25 percent.

The BSE Largecap index fell 3 percent during the week, with Indian Oil Corporation, Lodha Developers, Adani Green Energy, Interglobe Aviation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bosch, GAIL India, Godrej Consumer Products, Bank Of Baroda fell between 8-10 percent, while gainers were Solar Industries India, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics, Hindalco Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

The BSE Midcap index shed 3 percent during the week dragged by Aegis Vopak Terminals, Petronet LNG, Rail Vikas Nigam, LT Technology Services, KPIT Technologies, Bank Of India, while gainers included National Aluminium Company, United Breweries, Bharat Dynamics, JSW Infrastructure.

Most sectoral indices ended in the red during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index declined 6.5 percent, followed by the Nifty Realty index which fell 5 percent. The Nifty Bank index dropped 4.5 percent, while the Nifty Media index slipped 4.3 percent and the Nifty Private Bank index shed 4 percent. However, the Nifty Defence index bucked the trend, gaining nearly 5 percent.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 21,831.19 crore, extending their selling streak to the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 32,786.92 crore, during the week.

During the week, State Bank of India witnessed the largest decline in its market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Larsen &amp; Toubro, and HDFC Bank. On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries saw an increase in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

The Indian rupee touched fresh record low against the US dollar in this week amid surging crude oil prices. However, it made a strong recovery to end lower by 77 paise at 91.74 on March 6, compared with 90.97 on March 27. During the week, the domestic currency moved within a band of 91.22 to 92.30.

Sensex, Nifty see steepest weekly fall in over a year; rupee at record low

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853532" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307035927_stock_market_Sensex-Nifty.jpg" alt="In the truncated week, Indian equity markets remained under pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp jump in crude oil prices. Weak global cues, a declining rupee, and persistent FII selling further weighed on investor sentiment." width="1280" height="720" /> In the truncated week, Indian equity markets remained under pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp jump in crude oil prices. Weak global cues, a declining rupee, and persistent FII selling further weighed on investor sentiment.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853533" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307035946_Nifty_sensex.jpg" alt="During the week, the BSE Sensex slipped 2,368.29 points, or 2.91 percent, to finish at 78,918.90, while the Nifty50 shed 728.2 points, or 2.89 percent, to close at 24,450.45." width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, the BSE Sensex slipped 2,368.29 points, or 2.91 percent, to finish at 78,918.90, while the Nifty50 shed 728.2 points, or 2.89 percent, to close at 24,450.45.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853538" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040142_stocks5.jpg" alt="The BSE Smallcap index fell 3.3 percent during the week, with InfoBeans Technologies, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Orchid Pharma, Sadhana Nitrochem, Rajesh Exports, Netweb Technologies India, Agarwal Industrial Corporation, JTL Industries, D. P. Abhushan, Stallion India Fluorochemicals falling between 15-25 percent. On the other hand, Jindal Poly Films, Jindal Drilling Industries, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company, Ruby Mills, Paras Defence and Space Technologies, Antelopus Selan Energy, Axtel Industries, Sterlite Technologies, Jupiter Wagons added between 12-25 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Smallcap index fell 3.3 percent during the week, with InfoBeans Technologies, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, Orchid Pharma, Sadhana Nitrochem, Rajesh Exports, Netweb Technologies India, Agarwal Industrial Corporation, JTL Industries, D. P. Abhushan, Stallion India Fluorochemicals falling between 15-25 percent. On the other hand, Jindal Poly Films, Jindal Drilling Industries, Hindustan Oil Exploration Company, Ruby Mills, Paras Defence and Space Technologies, Antelopus Selan Energy, Axtel Industries, Sterlite Technologies, and Jupiter Wagons added between 12 and 25 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853539" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040211_market_stocks_sensex_Nifty.jpg" alt="The BSE Largecap index fell 3 percent during the week, with Indian Oil Corporation, Lodha Developers, Adani Green Energy, Interglobe Aviation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bosch, GAIL India, Godrej Consumer Products, Bank Of Baroda fell between 8-10 percent, while gainers were Solar Industries India, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics, Hindalco Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Largecap index fell 3 percent during the week, with Indian Oil Corporation, Lodha Developers, Adani Green Energy, Interglobe Aviation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bosch, GAIL India, Godrej Consumer Products, Bank Of Baroda fell between 8-10 percent, while gainers were Solar Industries India, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, Bharat Electronics, Hindalco Industries, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853541" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040240_sensex_nifty_stock-stocks_stock.jpg" alt="The BSE Midcap index shed 3 percent during the week dragged by Aegis Vopak Terminals, Petronet LNG, Rail Vikas Nigam, LT Technology Services, KPIT Technologies, Bank Of India, while gainers included National Aluminium Company, United Breweries, Bharat Dynamics, JSW Infrastructure." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Midcap index shed 3 percent during the week, dragged by Aegis Vopak Terminals, Petronet LNG, Rail Vikas Nigam, LT Technology Services, KPIT Technologies, Bank of India, while gainers included National Aluminium Company, United Breweries, Bharat Dynamics, JSW Infrastructure.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853542" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040312_sensex_nifty_market_Nifty_nse_bse.jpg" alt="Most sectoral indices ended in the red during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index declined 6.5 percent, followed by the Nifty Realty index which fell 5 percent. The Nifty Bank index dropped 4.5 percent, while the Nifty Media index slipped 4.3 percent and the Nifty Private Bank index shed 4 percent. However, the Nifty Defence index bucked the trend, gaining nearly 5 percent." width="1280" height="720" /> Most sectoral indices ended in the red during the week. The Nifty PSU Bank index declined 6.5 percent, followed by the Nifty Realty index, which fell 5 percent. The Nifty Bank index dropped 4.5 percent, while the Nifty Media index slipped 4.3 percent and the Nifty Private Bank index shed 4 percent. However, the Nifty Defence index bucked the trend, gaining nearly 5 percent.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853543" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040334_nifty_sensex_stocks.jpg" alt="Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 21,831.19 crore, extending their selling streak to the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 32,786.92 crore, during the week." width="1280" height="720" /> Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 21,831.19 crore, extending their selling streak to the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) remained net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 32,786.92 crore, during the week.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13853544" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/03/20260307040404_Nifty_sensex_marketup.jpg" alt="During the week, State Bank of India witnessed the largest decline in its market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Larsen &amp; Toubro, and HDFC Bank. On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries saw an increase in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, State Bank of India witnessed the largest decline in its market capitalisation, followed by ICICI Bank, Larsen &amp; Toubro, and HDFC Bank. On the other hand, Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries saw an increase in their market capitalisation. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.)

<img class="size-full wp-image-13789262" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124031938_rupee_fall.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee touched fresh record low against the US dollar in this week amid surging crude oil prices. However, it made a strong recovery to end lower by 77 paise at 91.74 on March 6, compared with 90.97 on March 27. During the week, the domestic currency moved within a band of 91.22 to 92.30." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian rupee touched a fresh record low against the US dollar this week amid surging crude oil prices. However, it made a strong recovery to end lower by 77 paise at 91.74 on March 6, compared with 90.97 on March 27. During the week, the domestic currency moved within a band of 91.22 to 92.30.

If Iran war persists, higher oil prices could drive input cost inflation and hurt Q4FY26 margins, Threats to Strait of Hormuz, which, if closed, could shave over 0.5% off India’s GDP, IT companies are probably close to the bottom but not a sharp recovery yet

* If Iran war persists, higher oil prices could drive input cost inflation and hurt Q4FY26 margins
* Threats to Strait of Hormuz, which, if closed, could shave over 0.5% off India’s GDP
* IT companies are probably close to the bottom but not a sharp recovery yet

shorts/business/daily-voice-higher-oil-prices-from-iran-conflict-may-squeeze-q4fy26-margins-says-spark-s-deepan-kapadia

* If Iran war persists, higher oil prices could drive input cost inflation and hurt Q4FY26 margins
* Threats to Strait of Hormuz, which, if closed, could shave over 0.5% off India’s GDP
* IT companies are probably close to the bottom but not a sharp recovery yet

The biggest macro risk from the Iran conflict is oil prices, which could raise inflation and widen India’s current account deficit, said Deepan Kapadia, the Executive Director &amp; CIO – Portfolio Management Services at Spark Capital PWM in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Though overall expectations are continued improvement in earnings growth across sectors in Q4FY26, key thing is to be watched out is the impact both direct and indirect due to the War.

If the war stretches for a longer time frame, then higher oil prices will lead to raw material inflation and thereby impacting margins, according to him.

In case of IT companies, he feels it is probably close to the bottom but not a sharp recovery yet. "The narrative has shifted from "digital transformation" to AI-centric deals, which now form nearly 74% of new contracts for majors companies," he said.

After the recent market decline, which sectors should investors focus on?

Periods of volatility typically create opportunities in structural growth sectors and domestic cyclicals. Overall, India’s domestic economy remains the key driver, so sectors linked to capex and consumption should outperform over time. Preferred sectors now:

Domestic cyclicals: Financials – strong balance sheets, credit growth recovery. Capital Goods / Infrastructure – driven by government capex and private investment revival. Autos &amp; ancillaries – sustained demand and premiumisation trends.

Structural themes: Manufacturing / China+1 beneficiaries, Defence and aerospace (global re-armament cycle), Power equipment

Select defensives: Healthcare /Pharma/Consumer staples

Do you think the possibility of a worst-case scenario in the Iran conflict is now very low?

Not completely. The conflict has already moved beyond proxy tensions with direct military actions involving the US and Israel, increasing geopolitical risk. While markets occasionally "price in" localized strikes, the situation remains fluid. The strikes on Iran have led to:

* Brent Crude climbing above $90/barrel.
* Threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which, if closed, could shave over 0.5% off India’s GDP.
* The "worst-case" (prolonged regional war or regime collapse into chaos) is still a highlighted risk by analysts, keeping the India VIX elevated. It’s premature to call the "all clear."

However, historically, most Middle East conflicts create volatility but limited long-term market impact unless energy supply is disrupted.

Are you bullish on cyclicals at this stage?

I am bullish but selective. The "mid-cycle acceleration" thesis from early 2026 is being tested by high energy costs. While manufacturing and industrials are benefiting from government capex, the concerns on rise in input costs (due to oil) may squeeze margins. The macro backdrop supports cyclicals: India GDP growth remains around 7–7.6%, Balance sheets across banks and corporates are strong and Capex cycle is still early. It’s better to favour cyclicals with strong pricing power rather than commodity-sensitive ones that can't pass on costs.

From here, what do you see as more likely — a 5% market correction or a 5% upside?

Near term, markets are likely to remain range-bound. Indian markets remain supported by strong domestic flows and earnings visibility, which limits big downside from further levels.

Do you think the worst phase for IT services is over now?

We feel we are probably close to the bottom but not a sharp recovery yet. The narrative has shifted from "digital transformation" to AI-centric deals, which now form nearly 74% of new contracts for majors companies. While stock prices are currently pressured by weak US cues, the fundamental "earnings trough" for the sector seems to be behind us. 2026 should see gradual recovery rather than a sharp rebound.

What are your broad expectations for the March 2025 quarter earnings, which will begin to be announced next month?

Overall expectations are continued improvement in earnings growth across sectors in Q4FY26. Key thing is to be watched out is the impact both direct and indirect due to the War. If the war stretches for a longer time frame, then higher oil prices will lead to raw material inflation and thereby impacting margins.

Do you still maintain your forecast of over 7% economic growth for FY26 and FY27 despite the tensions involving Iran?

Yes, the base case remains intact. Key factors are Strong domestic consumption, Infrastructure capex, Manufacturing shift toward India and Services exports resilience. Also, Strong domestic tax collections and new trade deals with the US and EU are acting as a buffer against Middle East tensions.

The biggest macro risk from the Iran conflict is oil prices, which could raise inflation and widen India’s current account deficit.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Higher oil prices from Iran conflict may squeeze Q4FY26 margins, says Spark’s Deepan Kapadia

The biggest macro risk from the Iran conflict is oil prices, which could raise inflation and widen India’s current account deficit, said Deepan Kapadia, the Executive Director &amp;amp; CIO – Portfolio Management Services at Spark Capital PWM in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Though overall expectations are continued improvement in earnings growth across sectors in Q4FY26, key thing is to be watched out is the impact both direct and indirect due to the War.

If the war stretches for a longer time frame, then higher oil prices will lead to raw material inflation and thereby impacting margins, according to him.

In case of IT companies, he feels it is probably close to the bottom but not a sharp recovery yet. &quot;The narrative has shifted from &quot;digital transformation&quot; to AI-centric deals, which now form nearly 74% of new contracts for majors companies,&quot; he said.

After the recent market decline, which sectors should investors focus on?

Periods of volatility typically create opportunities in structural growth sectors and domestic cyclicals. Overall, India’s domestic economy remains the key driver, so sectors linked to capex and consumption should outperform over time. Preferred sectors now:

Domestic cyclicals: Financials – strong balance sheets, credit growth recovery. Capital Goods / Infrastructure – driven by government capex and private investment revival. Autos &amp;amp; ancillaries – sustained demand and premiumisation trends.

Structural themes: Manufacturing / China+1 beneficiaries, Defence and aerospace (global re-armament cycle), Power equipment

Select defensives: Healthcare /Pharma/Consumer staples

Do you think the possibility of a worst-case scenario in the Iran conflict is now very low?

Not completely. The conflict has already moved beyond proxy tensions with direct military actions involving the US and Israel, increasing geopolitical risk. While markets occasionally &quot;price in&quot; localized strikes, the situation remains fluid. The strikes on Iran have led to:

* Brent Crude climbing above $90/barrel.
* Threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which, if closed, could shave over 0.5% off India’s GDP.
* The &quot;worst-case&quot; (prolonged regional war or regime collapse into chaos) is still a highlighted risk by analysts, keeping the India VIX elevated. It’s premature to call the &quot;all clear.&quot;

However, historically, most Middle East conflicts create volatility but limited long-term market impact unless energy supply is disrupted.

Are you bullish on cyclicals at this stage?

I am bullish but selective. The &quot;mid-cycle acceleration&quot; thesis from early 2026 is being tested by high energy costs. While manufacturing and industrials are benefiting from government capex, the concerns on rise in input costs (due to oil) may squeeze margins. The macro backdrop supports cyclicals: India GDP growth remains around 7–7.6%, Balance sheets across banks and corporates are strong and Capex cycle is still early. It’s better to favour cyclicals with strong pricing power rather than commodity-sensitive ones that can't pass on costs.

From here, what do you see as more likely — a 5% market correction or a 5% upside?

Near term, markets are likely to remain range-bound. Indian markets remain supported by strong domestic flows and earnings visibility, which limits big downside from further levels.

Do you think the worst phase for IT services is over now?

We feel we are probably close to the bottom but not a sharp recovery yet. The narrative has shifted from &quot;digital transformation&quot; to AI-centric deals, which now form nearly 74% of new contracts for majors companies. While stock prices are currently pressured by weak US cues, the fundamental &quot;earnings trough&quot; for the sector seems to be behind us. 2026 should see gradual recovery rather than a sharp rebound.

What are your broad expectations for the March 2025 quarter earnings, which will begin to be announced next month?

Overall expectations are continued improvement in earnings growth across sectors in Q4FY26. Key thing is to be watched out is the impact both direct and indirect due to the War. If the war stretches for a longer time frame, then higher oil prices will lead to raw material inflation and thereby impacting margins.

Do you still maintain your forecast of over 7% economic growth for FY26 and FY27 despite the tensions involving Iran?

Yes, the base case remains intact. Key factors are Strong domestic consumption, Infrastructure capex, Manufacturing shift toward India and Services exports resilience. Also, Strong domestic tax collections and new trade deals with the US and EU are acting as a buffer against Middle East tensions.

The biggest macro risk from the Iran conflict is oil prices, which could raise inflation and widen India’s current account deficit.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex and Nifty fell over 1 percent as crude prices surged., 15 of 16 major sectors declined; defence stocks gained 6 percent., State-owned banks fell 6.5% due to borrowing cost worries.

* Sensex and Nifty fell over 1 percent as crude prices surged.
* 15 of 16 major sectors declined; defence stocks gained 6 percent.
* State-owned banks fell 6.5% due to borrowing cost worries.

Indian stock indices fell over 1% Friday amid West Asia conflict, rising crude prices, weak global markets, and foreign fund outflows. Sensex dropped 1,097 points; Nifty lost 315. Most sectors declined, with defence stocks gaining nearly 6% for the week.

shorts/business/middle-east-war-impact-indian-markets-log-worst-week-in-over-a-year-check-top-losers

* Sensex and Nifty fell over 1 percent as crude prices surged.
* 15 of 16 major sectors declined; defence stocks gained 6 percent.
* State-owned banks fell 6.5% due to borrowing cost worries.

The benchmark equity indices declined more than 1 percent on Friday after a day’s breather as the conflict in West Asia entered its seventh day, pushing crude oil prices higher and weighing on investor sentiment.

Weakness in US equities, a subdued trend in European markets and continued foreign fund outflows also dragged the markets lower.

The Sensex tumbled 1,097 points, or 1.37 percent, to settle at 78,918.90. During the day, it dropped 1,203.72 points, or 1.5 percent, to 78,812.18. The broader Nifty fell 315.45 points, or 1.27 percent, to close at 24,450.45.

For the week, both the Sensex and the Nifty lost about 2.9 percent each. The fall marked the steepest weekly decline for the Nifty since February 28, 2025, and for the Sensex since December 20, 2024.

"The market is taking into account the near-term threat from oil prices," said Pankaj Pandey, Head of Retail Research at ICICI Securities.

"However, we don't yet see a macroeconomic impact from this as the broad expectation is that crude prices will not remain elevated for a long period," he said. The rupee ended marginally lower on Friday and posted its worst weekly fall in more than a month.

Sectorally, 15 of the 16 major sectors declined during the week. Small-cap and mid-cap indices fell 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.

Shares of state-owned banks dropped about 6.5 percent amid concerns that higher crude prices could increase government borrowing costs, push bond yields higher and compress treasury gains.

Financial and banking stocks declined around 4.5 percent each.

Among individual stocks, shares of Larsen &amp; Toubro slipped 2.2 percent on Friday and fell 7.7 percent for the week, their worst performance since May 2020, as investors factored in the company’s exposure to the West Asia.

Shares of <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/transportlogistics/interglobeaviation/IA04">InterGlobe Aviation</a> dropped 2.4 percent on Friday and 8.8 percent during the week, the worst in three months, amid concerns that higher fuel costs and moderation in international air traffic could impact quarterly earnings.
<h3><a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/west-asia-war-impact-indigo-shares-decline-3-as-multiple-brokerages-flag-pressure-on-airline-s-earnings-13853001.html" target="_blank">West Asia war impact: IndiGo shares decline 3% as multiple brokerages flag pressure on airline's earnings</a></h3>
Among the top losers on the Nifty during the week were Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle, which declined 9.6 percent, Larsen &amp; Toubro which fell 11.7 percent, HDFC Life Insurance down 6.61 percent and Tata Steel which dropped 8.28 percent.

Among mid-cap stocks, L&amp;T Finance declined 12.58 percent, Petronet LNG fell 15.63 percent, Macrotech Developers dropped 10.82 percent, Indian Oil Corporation lost 11.31 percent, KPIT Technologies slipped 9.6 percent and Rail Vikas Nigam fell 12.14 percent.

Defence stocks outperformed the broader market and gained nearly 6 percent during the week, with Paras Defence and Space Technologies and Solar Industries India emerging as the top gainers.

(With inputs from Reuters)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

Middle East war impact: Indian markets log worst week in over a year; check top losers

The benchmark equity indices declined more than 1 percent on Friday after a day’s breather as the conflict in West Asia entered its seventh day, pushing crude oil prices higher and weighing on investor sentiment.

Weakness in US equities, a subdued trend in European markets and continued foreign fund outflows also dragged the markets lower.

The Sensex tumbled 1,097 points, or 1.37 percent, to settle at 78,918.90. During the day, it dropped 1,203.72 points, or 1.5 percent, to 78,812.18. The broader Nifty fell 315.45 points, or 1.27 percent, to close at 24,450.45.

For the week, both the Sensex and the Nifty lost about 2.9 percent each. The fall marked the steepest weekly decline for the Nifty since February 28, 2025, and for the Sensex since December 20, 2024.

&quot;The market is taking into account the near-term threat from oil prices,&quot; said Pankaj Pandey, Head of Retail Research at ICICI Securities.

&quot;However, we don't yet see a macroeconomic impact from this as the broad expectation is that crude prices will not remain elevated for a long period,&quot; he said. The rupee ended marginally lower on Friday and posted its worst weekly fall in more than a month.

Sectorally, 15 of the 16 major sectors declined during the week. Small-cap and mid-cap indices fell 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.

Shares of state-owned banks dropped about 6.5 percent amid concerns that higher crude prices could increase government borrowing costs, push bond yields higher and compress treasury gains.

Financial and banking stocks declined around 4.5 percent each.

Among individual stocks, shares of Larsen &amp;amp; Toubro slipped 2.2 percent on Friday and fell 7.7 percent for the week, their worst performance since May 2020, as investors factored in the company’s exposure to the West Asia.

Shares of InterGlobe Aviation dropped 2.4 percent on Friday and 8.8 percent during the week, the worst in three months, amid concerns that higher fuel costs and moderation in international air traffic could impact quarterly earnings.
West Asia war impact: IndiGo shares decline 3% as multiple brokerages flag pressure on airline's earnings
Among the top losers on the Nifty during the week were Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle, which declined 9.6 percent, Larsen &amp;amp; Toubro which fell 11.7 percent, HDFC Life Insurance down 6.61 percent and Tata Steel which dropped 8.28 percent.

Among mid-cap stocks, L&amp;amp;T Finance declined 12.58 percent, Petronet LNG fell 15.63 percent, Macrotech Developers dropped 10.82 percent, Indian Oil Corporation lost 11.31 percent, KPIT Technologies slipped 9.6 percent and Rail Vikas Nigam fell 12.14 percent.

Defence stocks outperformed the broader market and gained nearly 6 percent during the week, with Paras Defence and Space Technologies and Solar Industries India emerging as the top gainers.

(With inputs from Reuters)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

12 out of 18 years NIFTY 500 has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	22,636.45	22,791.60	22,881.60	22,546.45	22,391.30	22,301.30	22,146.15
Fibonacci	22,640.10	22,697.95	22,791.60	22,546.45	22,452.80	22,394.95	22,301.30
Camarilla	22,503.77	22,526.24	22,548.72	22,546.45	22,458.83	22,436.36	22,413.88

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY 500

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

News

Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers