India VIX

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The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply from early lows and were trading higher on Tuesday, tracking firm global cues and optimism surrounding the India-European Union trade deal.

In early trade, the Sensex slipped 449.11 points or 0.55 percent to hit a low of 81,088.59. The broader Nifty fell 116.10 points or 0.46 percent to 24,932.55.

However, the benchmarks soon recovered lost ground. The Sensex jumped more than 700 points from the day’s low and was trading 298.06 points higher at 81,814.74. The Nifty rose 91.85 points to 25,151.15.
<h3>Key factors behind market rise</h3>
Optimism over the India-European Union trade deal lifted sentiment, as investors expect the agreement to boost exports, improve market access for Indian companies and strengthen long-term economic ties, supporting growth prospects.

The rupee also recovered from record low levels, which aided domestic equities. The local currency gained 10 paise to trade at 91.80 against the US dollar in early deals on Tuesday, as the dollar index eased from elevated levels. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 91.80, up from its previous close of 91.90. On Friday, the rupee had touched a historic low of 92 per dollar.

A firm trend in global markets further supported sentiment. In Asian trade, South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indices were trading higher. US markets ended on a positive note on Monday.

Crude oil prices softened, which also lent support to equities. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, slipped 0.72 per cent to USD 65.12 per barrel. Lower crude prices ease inflationary pressures and improve India’s trade balance, which is positive for the economy and markets.

Investors also took note of comments suggesting a possible reduction in US tariffs on India. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at Davos on Friday that the additional 25 per cent tariffs on India could be removed, citing a decline in India’s purchases of Russian oil.

In addition, liquidity measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India added to positive sentiment. The RBI on Friday unveiled steps to inject over USD 23 billion into the banking system through bond purchases, buy-sell forex swaps and repos. Higher liquidity is seen as supportive for credit growth and equity markets.

On the technical front, Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said the Nifty remains below its short-term moving averages, indicating a fragile setup.

“The 25,200–25,300 zone is immediate resistance, and any pullback towards this area may invite selling pressure. On the downside, 25,000 remains a key psychological and technical support. A decisive break below this level could accelerate weakness towards the 24,950–24,900 region in the near term,” Shah said.

He added that momentum indicators remain subdued, though oversold conditions may lead to brief, stock-specific relief rallies.

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Sensex rises 700 pts from day's low, Nifty near 25,150: India-EU trade deal optimism among key factors behind market rebound

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The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply from early lows and were trading higher on Tuesday, tracking firm global cues and optimism surrounding the India-European Union trade deal.

In early trade, the Sensex slipped 449.11 points or 0.55 percent to hit a low of 81,088.59. The broader Nifty fell 116.10 points or 0.46 percent to 24,932.55.

However, the benchmarks soon recovered lost ground. The Sensex jumped more than 700 points from the day’s low and was trading 298.06 points higher at 81,814.74. The Nifty rose 91.85 points to 25,151.15.
Key factors behind market rise
Optimism over the India-European Union trade deal lifted sentiment, as investors expect the agreement to boost exports, improve market access for Indian companies and strengthen long-term economic ties, supporting growth prospects.

The rupee also recovered from record low levels, which aided domestic equities. The local currency gained 10 paise to trade at 91.80 against the US dollar in early deals on Tuesday, as the dollar index eased from elevated levels. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 91.80, up from its previous close of 91.90. On Friday, the rupee had touched a historic low of 92 per dollar.

A firm trend in global markets further supported sentiment. In Asian trade, South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indices were trading higher. US markets ended on a positive note on Monday.

Crude oil prices softened, which also lent support to equities. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, slipped 0.72 per cent to USD 65.12 per barrel. Lower crude prices ease inflationary pressures and improve India’s trade balance, which is positive for the economy and markets.

Investors also took note of comments suggesting a possible reduction in US tariffs on India. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at Davos on Friday that the additional 25 per cent tariffs on India could be removed, citing a decline in India’s purchases of Russian oil.

In addition, liquidity measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India added to positive sentiment. The RBI on Friday unveiled steps to inject over USD 23 billion into the banking system through bond purchases, buy-sell forex swaps and repos. Higher liquidity is seen as supportive for credit growth and equity markets.

On the technical front, Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said the Nifty remains below its short-term moving averages, indicating a fragile setup.

“The 25,200–25,300 zone is immediate resistance, and any pullback towards this area may invite selling pressure. On the downside, 25,000 remains a key psychological and technical support. A decisive break below this level could accelerate weakness towards the 24,950–24,900 region in the near term,” Shah said.

He added that momentum indicators remain subdued, though oversold conditions may lead to brief, stock-specific relief rallies.

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Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty At Over 3-Month Low; Will The Bulls Make A Comeback?| Opening Bell Live

Sensex and Nifty expected to open higher on Jan 27, boosted by GIFT Nifty gains., US stocks rose for a fourth session; Asian equities mixed after tariff concerns, Gold stays above $5,000/oz amid a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks.

* Sensex and Nifty expected to open higher on Jan 27, boosted by GIFT Nifty gains.
* US stocks rose for a fourth session; Asian equities mixed after tariff concerns
* Gold stays above $5,000/oz amid a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Sensex and Nifty are expected to open higher on January 27, supported by gains in GIFT Nifty. Global markets showed mixed trends, with US equities rising, Asian currencies mostly down, and gold and crude prices up. FIIs continued selling while DIIs bought shares.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-86

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open on a positive note on January 27, supported by positive cues from GIFT Nifty, which was trading higher at around 25,165.50.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The market failed to build on the previous session’s strong rebound and ended lower in a volatile session on January 23, as selling pressure was seen across sectors.

At close, the Sensex was down 769.67 points or 0.94 percent at 81,537.70, and the Nifty was down 241.25 points or 0.95 percent at 25,048.65.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Rises)

The GIFT Nifty is trading higher at around 25,165.50, indicating a firm opening for the day.

Asian Equities (Mixed)

Stocks swung between small gains and losses after President Donald Trump reignited the tariff debate by threatening higher levies on South Korea.



US Equities (Up)

The S&amp;amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, as ​investors geared up for a slew of mega-cap earnings and a Federal Reserve update on interest rate policy later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 313.69 points, or 0.64%, to 49,412.40, the S&amp;amp;P 500 gained 34.62 points, or 0.50%, to 6,950.23, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 100.11 points, or 0.43%, to 23,601.36.



US Bond Yield (Up)

Yields on the 10-year and 2-year US Treasuries were trading with little change in the early Tuesday trade.



Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar index rose marginally in the early trade on Tuesday against the other major currencies.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Asian Currencies were trading mostly lower in the early trade on Tuesday, with the South Korean Won leading the losers, followed by the Thai Baht, Philippines Peso, the Japanese Yen, Malaysia Ringgit.



Crude (Up)

Oil prices fell on Tuesday even as a massive winter storm hit crude production and affected refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.



Gold (Up)

Gold rose, holding above $5,000 an ounce for a second day, as a weak dollar helped to extend a rally fueled by geopolitical risks and investor flight from sovereign bonds and currencies.



Fund Flow Action

The Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their selling on January 23 as they sold equities worth around Rs 4113 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 4102 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, JSW Steel are among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers are M&amp;M, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Wipro, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles. Nifty midcap and smallcap indices up 0.3% each. Among sectors, metal index up 2%, while realty, auto, media down 0.5-1%.

Stock Market LIVE Updates: Sensex up 150 pts, Nifty above 25,100; metal, pharma, PSU Bank shine

Live Blog

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, JSW Steel are among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers are M&amp;amp;M, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Wipro, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles. Nifty midcap and smallcap indices up 0.3% each. Among sectors, metal index up 2%, while realty, auto, media down 0.5-1%.

Budget may play a limited role in bringing FII flows back to India, Expect the budget to be balanced between consumption oriented themes and capex spending, Key concern for equity markets will be earnings growth in 2026

* Budget may play a limited role in bringing FII flows back to India
* Expect the budget to be balanced between consumption oriented themes and capex spending
* Key concern for equity markets will be earnings growth in 2026

shorts/business/daily-voice-budget-no-catalyst-earnings-growth-key-for-equities-in-2026-says-naveen-kulkarni

* Budget may play a limited role in bringing FII flows back to India
* Expect the budget to be balanced between consumption oriented themes and capex spending
* Key concern for equity markets will be earnings growth in 2026

The government has already made critical announcements before the budget in terms of reducing GST rates to push consumption spending, and that has started to have an impact. Thus, the budget may play a limited role in bringing FII flows back to India, said Naveen Kulkarni, the Chief Investment Officer at Axis Securities PMS in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He expects the budget to be balanced between consumption oriented themes and capex spending.

According to him, the key concern for equity markets will be earnings growth in 2026. "This needs to pick up, as any negative surprise could weigh on market sentiment," he said.

Do you think the Union Budget 2026 can play a significant role in bringing FII flows back to India?

Union Budgets have not been a major market moving event in the recent years. While the expectations run high before the budget, triggers post budget have often been limited.

The government has already made critical announcements before the budget in terms of reducing GST rates to push consumption spending, and that has started to have an impact. Thus, the budget may play a limited role in bringing FII flows back to India.

Will the budget focus more on a capex and infrastructure push, adhere to a fiscal consolidation path, and stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways?

Capex and infrastructure push will remain critical as they have been but there is not enough room to push the spending beyond the nominal GDP growth rate. We expect the budget to be balanced between consumption oriented themes and capex spending.

Do you expect economic growth to exceed 7.5 percent in the current fiscal year?

GDP growth rate of 7.5% is an excellent number to begin with. Such a pace of real GDP growth would be very impressive. Achieving 7.5% growth rate in FY26 would therefore be a positive outcome, with the focus then shifting to FY27. If this growth trajectory is maintained, India could emerge as the top investment destination globally.

Do you expect the US Federal Reserve to announce a pause in the monetary easing cycle at its January meeting?

At present there is an overwhelmingly high probability that the Federal Reserve will pause the rates in the January meeting. The current inflation scenario on personal consumption remains at elevated levels which is a cause of concern. Thus, the Federal Reserve in all likelihood will pause rate cuts in January meeting.

Has the Q3 earnings performance of any sector surprised you?

The Q3 earnings season has largely been in line with expectations, with no major negative surprises reported so far. The Q2 FY26 earnings season was also broadly in line with expectations, and consensus estimates for FY27–28 have remained stable. Q3 is following a similar trend, with most large companies reporting results broadly in line with expectations.

BFSI companies have delivered in-line numbers, while the IT sector has reported results that are in line to marginally better. Other sectors are also showing a similar pattern. Thus, FY27 is expected to be a good year with double-digit early teens earnings growth for NIFTY 50 stocks but the broader market could see an improvement in earnings trajectory that could exceed NIFTY 50 earnings growth.

Do you think geo-economic confrontation will be a key risk in 2026?

Geo-economic confrontation has already been a key risk and is largely factored into stock prices. However, the more critical driver for markets will be earnings growth. FY25 and FY26 were not particularly strong from an earnings growth perspective, with corporate earnings expanding in single digits.

The key concern for equity markets will therefore be earnings growth in 2026. This needs to pick up, as any negative surprise could weigh on market sentiment. The current expectations are of double-digit earnings growth in 2026 as the base is low. If earnings growth trajectory undershoots then Indian equities will derate further.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Budget no catalyst; earnings growth key for equities in 2026, says Naveen Kulkarni

The current expectations are of double-digit earnings growth in 2026 as the base is low. If earnings growth trajectory undershoots then Indian equities will derate further, said Naveen Kulkarni.

The government has already made critical announcements before the budget in terms of reducing GST rates to push consumption spending, and that has started to have an impact. Thus, the budget may play a limited role in bringing FII flows back to India, said Naveen Kulkarni, the Chief Investment Officer at Axis Securities PMS in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He expects the budget to be balanced between consumption oriented themes and capex spending.

According to him, the key concern for equity markets will be earnings growth in 2026. &quot;This needs to pick up, as any negative surprise could weigh on market sentiment,&quot; he said.

Do you think the Union Budget 2026 can play a significant role in bringing FII flows back to India?

Union Budgets have not been a major market moving event in the recent years. While the expectations run high before the budget, triggers post budget have often been limited.

The government has already made critical announcements before the budget in terms of reducing GST rates to push consumption spending, and that has started to have an impact. Thus, the budget may play a limited role in bringing FII flows back to India.

Will the budget focus more on a capex and infrastructure push, adhere to a fiscal consolidation path, and stay away from broad-based consumption giveaways?

Capex and infrastructure push will remain critical as they have been but there is not enough room to push the spending beyond the nominal GDP growth rate. We expect the budget to be balanced between consumption oriented themes and capex spending.

Do you expect economic growth to exceed 7.5 percent in the current fiscal year?

GDP growth rate of 7.5% is an excellent number to begin with. Such a pace of real GDP growth would be very impressive. Achieving 7.5% growth rate in FY26 would therefore be a positive outcome, with the focus then shifting to FY27. If this growth trajectory is maintained, India could emerge as the top investment destination globally.

Do you expect the US Federal Reserve to announce a pause in the monetary easing cycle at its January meeting?

At present there is an overwhelmingly high probability that the Federal Reserve will pause the rates in the January meeting. The current inflation scenario on personal consumption remains at elevated levels which is a cause of concern. Thus, the Federal Reserve in all likelihood will pause rate cuts in January meeting.

Has the Q3 earnings performance of any sector surprised you?

The Q3 earnings season has largely been in line with expectations, with no major negative surprises reported so far. The Q2 FY26 earnings season was also broadly in line with expectations, and consensus estimates for FY27–28 have remained stable. Q3 is following a similar trend, with most large companies reporting results broadly in line with expectations.

BFSI companies have delivered in-line numbers, while the IT sector has reported results that are in line to marginally better. Other sectors are also showing a similar pattern. Thus, FY27 is expected to be a good year with double-digit early teens earnings growth for NIFTY 50 stocks but the broader market could see an improvement in earnings trajectory that could exceed NIFTY 50 earnings growth.

Do you think geo-economic confrontation will be a key risk in 2026?

Geo-economic confrontation has already been a key risk and is largely factored into stock prices. However, the more critical driver for markets will be earnings growth. FY25 and FY26 were not particularly strong from an earnings growth perspective, with corporate earnings expanding in single digits.

The key concern for equity markets will therefore be earnings growth in 2026. This needs to pick up, as any negative surprise could weigh on market sentiment. The current expectations are of double-digit earnings growth in 2026 as the base is low. If earnings growth trajectory undershoots then Indian equities will derate further.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

14 out of 17 years India VIX has given positive returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	14.99	15.78	17.14	13.63	12.84	11.48	10.69
Fibonacci	14.45	14.96	15.78	13.63	12.81	12.30	11.48
Camarilla	14.39	14.58	14.78	13.63	13.99	13.80	13.60

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