India VIX

Previous week's low of 22,900 expected to be at risk in upcoming session, If Nifty 50 decisively breaks this level, a fall towards 22,700 cannot be ruled out, 23,400 can act as a resistance zone

* Previous week's low of 22,900 expected to be at risk in upcoming session
* If Nifty 50 decisively breaks this level, a fall towards 22,700 cannot be ruled out
* 23,400 can act as a resistance zone

shorts/business/trading-plan-will-nifty-50-hold-22-900-bank-nifty-stay-above-53-200-as-oil-price-surge-keeps-bears-active

Bears are still in a strong position, though the market closed half a percent higher on Friday after a 3.3 percent drop in the previous session. Brent crude oil prices closed at their highest level since July 2022 amid escalating US-Iran tensions, signalling inflation concerns, while technical and momentum indicators remain strongly favourable for bears. Hence, the previous week's low of 22,900 is expected to be at risk in the upcoming sessions. If the Nifty 50 decisively breaks this level, a fall towards 22,700 cannot be ruled out; however, 23,400 can act as a resistance zone. Meanwhile, if the Bank Nifty falls below 53,200 (near the previous week's low), the 53,000–52,700 levels will be crucial to watch, whereas 54,000–54,500 can act as hurdles, according to experts.

On March 20, the Nifty 50 rose 112 points (0.49 percent) to 23,114, while the Bank Nifty fell 24 points to 53,427. Market breadth was weak, as about 1,721 shares advanced compared to 1,258 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

Nifty extended its losing streak for the fourth consecutive week, although the pace of decline moderated compared to the previous three weeks. During the week, the index found support around the 22,900 zone on two occasions, and for the coming week (starting from March 23), this key support will remain pivotal. As long as this support holds, a near-term bounce cannot be ruled out.

In such a scenario, the bearish gap formed on Thursday in the 23,400–23,600 zone will act as immediate resistance, while the week’s high near 23,900 stands as a stiff hurdle. A decisive move above this zone would be required to signal any meaningful reversal or broad-based buying.

On the downside, given the prevailing weak undertone, a break below 22,900 could trigger a further decline towards the 22,700–22,500 zone. Notably, the current monthly series has been particularly weak, with Nifty correcting over 9 percent and slipping below the 20-EMA on the monthly chart—a level that has historically been well defended on a closing basis.

With the daily RSI (smoothed) placed in deeply oversold territory, at levels last seen during the post-COVID phase, it remains to be seen whether the market stages a meaningful rebound to defend this long-term average or continues to drift lower amid ongoing global uncertainties, particularly the US–Israel–Iran conflict. Given this backdrop, volatility is expected to remain elevated. Traders are advised to closely monitor key levels, especially the crucial 22,900 mark, and structure their trades accordingly.

Key Resistance: 23,400, 23,600

Key Support: 22,900, 22,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 22,850, with a stop-loss of 22,700, targeting 23,400 / 23,500. However, sell Nifty Futures on a bounce around 23,450–23,500, with a stop-loss of 23,650, targeting 22,900 / 22,850.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities

Nifty posted a marginal weekly loss of 37 points, reflecting a fragile and uncertain market tone. On the weekly chart, Nifty formed a Doji candlestick, indicating indecision near the crucial support zone of 23,000–22,900, which aligns with the lower band of the bullish gap formed in April 2025 and an upward-sloping trendline from June 2024.

For bulls to regain control, the index needs to decisively fill Thursday’s bearish gap between 23,379 and 23,618, which could open the path toward the 23,850–24,000 levels. On the downside, a sustained break below 23,000–22,900 may trigger a deeper correction towards the 22,500–22,000 zone.

The weekly RSI continues to trend lower and remains below its reference line, indicating a negative bias. While geopolitical risks may keep the index under pressure, holding above the 23,000–22,900 support zone remains key for any potential reversal in the near term.

Key Resistance: 23,350, 23,500

Key Support: 23,000, 22,750

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 23,350, with a stop-loss of 23,450, targeting 22,900–22,800.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One

During the week, Bank Nifty experienced sharp swings on both sides but ultimately aligned with the prevailing downtrend, closing near the lower end and extending its losing streak to a fourth consecutive week.

Prices are now nearing a crucial support zone of 53,200–53,000, which coincides with the golden retracement of the entire rally from last year’s low around 47,800, along with multiple support bases formed during the same period. A decisive breakdown below this zone could trigger further weakness, dragging prices towards the bullish gap in the 52,000–51,500 region.

On the other hand, given the significance of this support and the oversold condition of oscillators, a pullback cannot be ruled out. In such a scenario, 54,500–55,000 would act as immediate resistance, while a broader recovery would only be confirmed on a sustained move above 55,500. For the upcoming sessions, it will be crucial to watch how this heavyweight index behaves around the key 53,200–53,000 support zone.

Key Resistance: 54,200, 54,500

Key Support: 53,000, 52,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 53,000, with a stop-loss of 52,700, targeting 54,500–54,600; or sell Bank Nifty Futures on a bounce around 54,600–54,700, with a stop-loss of 55,000, targeting 53,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head of Research) at Axis Securities

Bank Nifty closed 331 points lower for the week. On the weekly chart, the index formed a small bearish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating selling pressure near the 55,500 level. However, it continues to hold a crucial horizontal support near 53,400, which has remained intact since May 2025, offering near-term stability.

Technically, a decisive move above 54,000 could trigger fresh buying interest, pushing the index toward the 54,400–55,000 zone. Conversely, a break below 53,000 may intensify selling pressure, dragging the index towards the 52,600–52,000 levels.

For the week, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 55,000–52,000 range with a negative bias. The weekly RSI remains in negative territory and below its reference line, reinforcing the cautious outlook and indicating underlying weakness.

Key Resistance: 53,600, 53,900

Key Support: 53,000, 52,700

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 53,600, with a stop-loss of 53,850, targeting 53,000–52,800.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 hold 22,900, Bank Nifty stay above 53,200 as oil price surge keeps bears active?

Weakening momentum and technical indicators kept bears in action mode, 22,900 expected to be immediate key support, followed by 22,700 being critical support, 23,200–23,400 zone can act as resistance, followed by 23,500

* Weakening momentum and technical indicators kept bears in action mode
* 22,900 expected to be immediate key support, followed by 22,700 being critical support
* 23,200–23,400 zone can act as resistance, followed by 23,500

shorts/business/trade-setup-for-march-23-top-15-things-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-amid-iran-war-driven-oil-price-surge

The Nifty 50 bounced back with half a percent gain on March 20 after a day of bloodbath. A spike in oil prices amid intensified US-Iran tensions and rising inflation concerns made central banks cautious. Weakening momentum and technical indicators kept the bears in action mode. According to experts, 22,900 is expected to be the immediate key support in upcoming sessions, as a decisive break below it can drag the index down to 22,700 (the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level). However, in case of a bounce, the 23,200–23,400 zone can act as resistance, followed by 23,500 as the key hurdle.



Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (23,114)

Resistance based on pivot points: 23,282, 23,347, and 23,453

Support based on pivot points: 23,070, 23,004, and 22,898

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a green candle with a long upper shadow and a minor lower shadow on the daily timeframe, signalling pressure at higher levels despite the bounce back. The lower high–lower low formation remains intact, with all key moving averages trending downward. The RSI, at 31.84, is on the verge of a bullish crossover but remains below the 40 zone, while the MACD sustains below the reference and zero lines. Although histogram weakness has faded, the bars remain below the zero line. All this indicates continued bearish undertone with a possibility of a short-term pullback.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (53,427)

Resistance based on pivot points: 54,117, 54,373, and 54,787

Support based on pivot points: 53,288, 53,032, and 52,618

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,280, 56,522

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 53,067, 50,705

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty closed flat with a negative bias and formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily charts, signalling consistent pressure at higher levels. The moving averages maintained a downward slope, with the 50-day EMA falling below the 100-day EMA, while the lower top–lower bottom structure remains intact. The RSI, at 28.71, remains below the reference line, while the MACD sustains below the zero and signal lines. All this indicates sustained weakness with bears maintaining control.



3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the 23,800 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 55.93 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,500 strike (52.78 lakh contracts) and 23,300 strike (50.74 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,800 strike, which saw an addition of 13.44 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,600 and 23,100 strikes, which added 11.29 lakh and 9.22 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 23,000 strike, which shed 5.85 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,950 and 23,400 strikes, which shed 1.1 lakh and 63,310 contracts, respectively.



4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike (with 63.33 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 22,500 strike (53.15 lakh contracts) and the 22,800 strike (34.02 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,100 strike, which saw an addition of 13.94 lakh contracts, followed by the 22,600 and 22,500 strikes, which added 13.46 lakh and 11.74 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 23,600 strike, which shed 2.65 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,500 and 23,000 strikes, which shed 2.38 lakh and 1.93 lakh contracts, respectively.



5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 55,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 7.21 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 54,000 strike (5.03 lakh contracts) and the 54,500 strike (3.73 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 54,000 strike (with the addition of 83,670 contracts), followed by the 53,500 strike (65,760 contracts) and 54,500 strike (29,520 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 53,800 strike, which shed 16,560 contracts, followed by the 54,100 and 54,400 strikes, which shed 13,440 and 11,280 contracts, respectively.



6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 54,000 strike (with 6.72 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 53,000 strike (5.2 lakh contracts) and the 53,500 strike (4.98 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 54,000 strike (which added 69,430 contracts), followed by the 54,300 (30,210 contracts) and 54,900 (16,800 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 52,500 strike, which shed 68,700 contracts, followed by the 55,000 and 53,400 strikes, which shed 38,280 and 29,820 contracts, respectively.



7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)



8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, rose to 0.93 on March 20, compared to a 0.91 in previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.



9) India VIX

India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, remained in the elevated zone, rising 0.04 percent to 22.81, indicating persistent discomfort for bulls. It needs to fall below 18 to bring bulls into a comfort zone.



10) Long Build-up (83 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 83 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.



11) Long Unwinding (14 Stocks)

14 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.



12) Short Build-up (49 Stocks)

49 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.



13) Short-Covering (64 Stocks)

64 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.



14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.



15) Stocks Under F&amp;amp;O Ban

Securities banned under the F&amp;amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;amp;O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Trade setup for March 23: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell amid Iran war–driven oil price surge

Markets shut on Thursday for Ram Navami; choppy week ahead., FPIs stay net sellers on West Asia conflict, weak rupee., Crude, rupee, IPOs and PMI data to steer market mood.

* Markets shut on Thursday for Ram Navami; choppy week ahead.
* FPIs stay net sellers on West Asia conflict, weak rupee.
* Crude, rupee, IPOs and PMI data to steer market mood.

Indian stock markets face a holiday-shortened week amid volatility, FPI outflows, West Asia conflict, elevated crude prices, rupee weakness, and key IPOs. Traders are advised to stay cautious, tracking technical levels and upcoming economic data.

shorts/business/dalal-street-week-ahead-west-asia-crisis-crude-prices-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

The domestic stock markets will have a holiday-shortened week ahead, with trading remaining closed on Thursday, March 26, on account of Shri Ram Navami.

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty had fallen 3.3 percent each on Thursday, marking their worst single-day decline since June 4, 2024. However, both indices ended the week with marginal losses of 0.04 percent and 0.16 percent, respectively, aided by value buying earlier in the week and a partial recovery on Friday.

Out of 16 major sectoral indices, 10 ended the week in the red. The small-cap index declined 1.1 percent, while the mid-cap index rose 0.2 percent.
Key factors to watch next week
1) FPI activity: Selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) intensified amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia. FPIs remained net sellers on all trading days in March. Total outflows through exchanges stood at Rs 90,152 crore till March 20.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said weakness in global equities following the West Asia conflict, rupee depreciation and concerns over elevated crude prices impacting growth and earnings have weighed on FPI sentiment. He added that relatively lower returns from Indian markets compared to other global markets over the past 18 months have also contributed to FPI outflows.

2) West Asia conflict: The conflict in West Asia has entered its fourth week and continues to impact global markets. Investor sentiment is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the region. Iran has warned of retaliatory action on regional infrastructure if the United States proceeds with its stance on the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump has said action would be taken if the Strait is not fully reopened.

3) Crude oil prices: Crude oil prices remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions. Prices had moved close to USD 119 per barrel following concerns over energy infrastructure in the region, before moderating slightly.

The US administration has announced a temporary relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded onto vessels before March 20, with the exemption valid till April 19.

4) Rupee movement: The movement of the Indian rupee against the US dollar will remain in focus. The rupee declined 64 paise on Friday to close at a record low of 93.53 against the dollar.

Forex dealers said persistent foreign fund outflows and rising crude prices have kept the currency under pressure. The widening trade deficit and inflation concerns amid higher energy costs are also weighing on sentiment.

5) Domestic economic data: Market participants will track HSBC Flash PMI data for manufacturing, services and composite sectors for cues on business activity. Industrial production data will also be monitored for indications of economic momentum, according to market participants.

6) IPO activity: Primary market activity is set to remain active, with multiple public issues scheduled during the week.

Mainboard IPOs of Sai Parenteral, Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) and Powerica are set to open, along with SME issues of Tipco Engineering India, Highness Microelectronics, Vivid Electromech and Emiac Technologies.

Listings expected during the week include Innovision, GSP Crop Science, Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust and Novus Loyalty. The IPO of Central Mine Planning &amp;amp; Design Institute Ltd will close on March 24.

7) Technical View: The analysts at the Choice Broking said, &quot;From a technical levels perspective, 23,850 remains the immediate resistance, followed by 24,000 and 24,150. On the downside, 22,950 and 22,700 serve as crucial support levels, with a break below 22,700 potentially triggering accelerated downside movement. Traders are advised to stay cautious and adhere to strict risk management practices amid the prevailing volatility.&quot;

8) Bank Nifty Technical View: From a momentum standpoint, the weekly RSI at 33.82 indicates weak momentum and a move toward the oversold region. A sustained close above 54,000 could signal strengthening bullish momentum and potentially trigger a recovery. However, failure to reclaim this level may keep the index under short-term corrective pressure. Traders should remain cautious and disciplined while monitoring key levels for the next directional move, said analysts at the Choice Broking.

9) Corporate Action: 

10) Market volatility: Elevated volatility, as indicated by India VIX, is expected to keep market participants cautious in the near term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street Week Ahead: West Asia crisis, crude prices among 10 key factors to watch

Technically, Nifty picture unmistakably bearish, index sits below all major moving averages, Convincing breakdown below 22,850–22,800 could open door for a slide toward 22,500, Bet on Bajaj Consumer Care, Belrise Industries for next week

* Technically, Nifty picture unmistakably bearish, index sits below all major moving averages
* Convincing breakdown below 22,850–22,800 could open door for a slide toward 22,500
* Bet on Bajaj Consumer Care, Belrise Industries for next week

shorts/business/sell-on-rise-market-sbi-securities-sees-nifty-under-pressure-picks-two-stocks-for-the-week-ahead

&quot;From a technical standpoint, the picture is unmistakably bearish. The Nifty 50 sits below all major moving averages, and a bearish candlestick formation featuring a long upper wick reinforces the notion that rallies continue to attract sellers,&quot; said Sudeep Shah - Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview with Moneycontrol.

According to him, the 22,850–22,800 zone is expected to provide immediate support, and a convincing breakdown below this level could open the door for a slide toward 22,500.

He bets on Bajaj Consumer Care, and Belrise Industries for next week. &quot;Bajaj RSI has rebounded from sub-40 levels to move above 50, signalling improving momentum, while Belrise staged a strong rebound from its 50-day EMA near Rs 180 on the daily chart, reaffirming underlying strength,&quot; he said.

Do you see the Nifty 50 breaking 22,700 in the coming week, given the current market structure?

Markets generally find it difficult to perform well when uncertainty is high, and the rising tensions in West Asia since February 28 have dealt a significant blow to investor confidence. Ever since the conflict broke out, the Nifty index has shed over 2,000 points, weighed down by adverse global developments and a pronounced shift toward risk aversion.

Recent price behaviour has been quite telling. The index has made three separate attempts at a recovery, but each bounce was met with aggressive selling at elevated levels — a clear sign that bears are firmly in control. Every uptick has been treated as a selling opportunity, pointing to thin buying interest and a lack of conviction among investors. While Nifty managed to end the current week more or less unchanged, the underlying mood remains shaky.

Volatility was a defining theme throughout the week. The index staged an impressive comeback of nearly 900 points over the first three sessions, only to surrender all those gains on Thursday in what turned out to be its worst single-day drop since June 4, 2024. The net result was a largely flat weekly close, marking four consecutive weeks of losses.

From a technical standpoint, the picture is unmistakably bearish. The index sits below all major moving averages, and a bearish candlestick formation featuring a long upper wick reinforces the notion that rallies continue to attract sellers. The weekly RSI has slipped to 30.22 — its lowest reading since the COVID-era selloff — signaling oversold territory, though there are no clear signs of a bottom forming just yet.

Going forward, the 22,850–22,800 zone is expected to provide immediate support, and a convincing breakdown below this level could open the door for a slide toward 22,500. On the upside, the 23,420–23,460 band is likely to act as a stiff resistance zone, where any recovery attempts are expected to encounter fresh selling pressure.

Will the Bank Nifty break below the golden ratio (the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the March 2025 low to the February 2026 high)?

Bank Nifty has now fallen for four consecutive weeks, reflecting sustained weakness and relentless selling pressure in the banking sector. On the weekly chart, the index has printed a small-bodied candle with a prominent upper shadow, suggesting that any attempt to rally is being met with aggressive selling at higher levels and that recoveries lack follow-through.

The bearish case is further strengthened by the fact that the index has closed below its 100-week EMA for the second week running — a significant long-term signal indicating that the broader trend is deteriorating. On the daily timeframe, Bank Nifty has spent the last ten sessions trading beneath its 200-day EMA, a development that points to a fragile medium-term structure where every bounce is being used as a selling opportunity.

Technical momentum continues to side with the bears. The RSI on both the daily and weekly charts is hovering in negative territory and declining further, reflecting a steady erosion of buying strength and suggesting limited room for any meaningful upside in the near term.

From here, the 54,300–54,400 band is expected to serve as a formidable resistance zone. Until the index manages a decisive close above 54,400, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. In such a scenario, Bank Nifty could gradually slide toward the 52,200 support level, with the possibility of the decline extending further to 51,500 over the short term.

How are FIIs positioned in the current market turmoil? What signals do you derive from their positioning?

FIIs remain firmly in a risk-off mode amid the ongoing market turmoil, as reflected in their persistent selling streak. They have offloaded Rs 5,518 crore in the cash market, extending their selling to 16 consecutive sessions, with cumulative outflows nearing Rs 97,783 crore, signaling a clear reduction in India exposure.

Derivatives positioning offers little optimism, with the long–short ratio stuck at a low 14.36% and a marginal addition of short positions in index futures, indicating a continued bearish bias.

Adding to the pressure, USDINR has climbed to record levels near 93.78, eroding returns for foreign investors due to currency depreciation. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia further dampen sentiment. On the charts, Nifty faces strong resistance at 23,345–23,380, and until this zone is decisively breached alongside improvement in FII positioning, the broader undertone is likely to remain cautious with a sell-on-rise approach.

Are you taking bullish bets on Tata Elxsi and Inox Wind after analyzing their charts?

Taking bullish bets on Tata Elxsi and Inox Wind may be premature at this stage. While both stocks have seen a minor pullback from their recent lows, the broader technical structure remains weak. The presence of a clear lower high–lower low formation on both daily and weekly charts indicates that the primary trend is still down.

Additionally, both stocks continue to trade below their key short and long-term moving averages, suggesting lack of strength. Momentum indicators further validate this view, with the MACD line positioned below both the signal line and the zero line, highlighting a persistent bearish bias.

Unless there is a decisive breakout above critical resistance levels i.e Rs 4,370–4,400 for Tata Elxsi and Rs 87–88 for Inox Wind, these moves appear to be mere pullbacks within a larger downtrend rather than the start of a sustained reversal.

What are your top two bets for the coming week?

Bajaj Consumer Care

Bajaj Consumer has been consolidating in the Rs 332–359 range over the past three sessions, indicating a phase of base formation. Although the stock slipped below its 50-day EMA on March 13, strong buying interest at lower levels helped it reclaim this crucial short-term average. The RSI has rebounded from sub-40 levels to move above 50, signalling improving momentum.

Additionally, DI+ is nearing a crossover above DI- on the ADX, while shrinking red histogram bars further point toward strengthening bullish undertone. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 367-364 with a stop-loss of Rs 352. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 390 in the short term.

Belrise Industries

Belrise staged a strong rebound from its 50-day EMA near Rs 180 on the daily chart, reaffirming underlying strength. The stock continues to trend higher, maintaining a consistent higher high–higher low structure, which signals a firmly established uptrend.

Momentum indicators are also turning supportive, with RSI bouncing sharply from around 40 to near 55, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Notably, Friday’s close above the Bollinger Bands midline adds further conviction, suggesting that buyers are regaining control and the up move is likely to sustain.

Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 190-187 with a stop-loss of Rs 180. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 205 in the short term.

Do you expect the rally in Jindal Steel and Laurus Labs to continue next week?

The outlook for Jindal Steel &amp;amp; Power and Laurus Labs appears mixed, with one showing relative strength while the other remains vulnerable.

Jindal Steel has been consolidating within the Rs 1,235–1,125 range since early March and is now showing signs of strength. Despite a 6.7% correction from its recent high of Rs 1,272, the 50-day EMA has acted as a strong support. The bullish crossover of DI+ above DI- on the ADX indicator suggests improving momentum. As long as the stock holds above the crucial Rs 1,150–1,140 zone, the pullback can extend further, indicating a possibility of continued upside next week.

In contrast, Laurus Labs present a weaker setup. The stock has slipped below its 100-day EMA and closed beneath it, signaling pressure. While it bounced from the Rs 940 support zone and RSI has ticked up slightly, the flat ADX and bearish MACD (below signal and zero line) indicate lack of momentum. A breach below Rs 940 could trigger further downside, making the rally less reliable.

Do you think JB Chemicals and CCL Products are strong bets for the coming week?

JB Chemicals &amp;amp; Pharmaceuticals and CCL Products are shaping up as relatively stronger bets for the coming week, backed by improving technical structures.

JB Chemicals has been consistently holding above its 20-day EMA after forming a bullish flag and pole pattern earlier this month, with this zone acting as a reliable dynamic support. The price structure remains constructive, indicating steady buying interest on dips. Additionally, the recent close above the Bollinger Bands midline strengthens the bullish undertone. As long as the stock sustains above the Rs 2,070–2,080 zone, the trend is likely to remain positive.

CCL Products, on the other hand, has delivered a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily chart. Momentum indicators are supportive, with RSI holding above 60 and a bullish DI+ crossover over DI- on the ADX. A follow-through move above Friday’s high could trigger fresh upside momentum.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sell-on-rise market? SBI Securities sees Nifty under pressure, picks two stocks for the week ahead

RBI likely to retain balanced, slightly cautious tone in April meeting amid global commodity and inflation uncertainty, Defence remains a strong long-term opportunity driven by policy support and indigenisation, Pharma offers defensive characteristics and export opportunities, especially in volatile global environment

* RBI likely to retain balanced, slightly cautious tone in April meeting amid global commodity and inflation uncertainty
* Defence remains a strong long-term opportunity driven by policy support and indigenisation
* Pharma offers defensive characteristics and export opportunities, especially in volatile global environment

shorts/business/daily-voice-why-rbi-may-avoid-a-rate-move-in-april-despite-strong-domestic-macros

Rajesh Kothari, the Founder &amp;amp; MD at ALF Accurate Advisors, expects the RBI to keep rates unchanged in the upcoming April policy, maintaining a cautious stance in light of global uncertainties, particularly around crude oil and geopolitics.

While domestic macros remain relatively strong—with stable inflation and steady growth—the RBI is likely to prioritise financial stability and inflation vigilance, especially given external risks, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, if high crude prices persist amid West Asia war, it could lead to higher subsidy burden (especially LPG/kerosene), lower excise flexibility, and potential pressure on the current account, which indirectly affects fiscal math.

Do you see the Federal Reserve raising benchmark interest rates or maintaining a prolonged pause in 2026 after the recent Fed meeting outcome?

Going forward, the duration of the war and its impact on crude oil prices will shape the policy response of central bankers globally. As of now, the Fed is clearly in pause mode.

Do you think market valuations have returned to historical averages, especially after the significant correction caused by the Iran conflict?

The Nifty is currently trading around ~18.5x FY27 earnings, which is below 10 years averages.

Do you believe the market downside is now limited, given that most of the negative West Asia news has already been priced in?

Importantly, India’s macro fundamentals today are far stronger than during the Russia–Ukraine phase—with better growth visibility, stronger balance sheets, and more resilient domestic flows. So while valuations are not outright cheap, the risk-reward has improved meaningfully, particularly for long-term investors. Hence downside seems limited.

Do you expect any impact on the fiscal deficit due to oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel?

Oil prices sustaining above $100 per barrel can have an impact on the fiscal deficit, but the extent of the impact will depend on how long prices remain elevated and the policy response of the government. India today is far better placed than in earlier cycles, with stronger tax buoyancy, controlled subsidy frameworks, and improved fiscal discipline.

That provides some cushion. However, if high crude prices persist, it could lead to higher subsidy burden (especially LPG/kerosene), lower excise flexibility, and potential pressure on the current account, which indirectly affects fiscal math. At this stage, the impact is manageable, but a prolonged period of elevated crude could lead to moderate slippage in fiscal deficit targets.

Are you concerned about FY27 earnings expectations, particularly in light of Middle East tensions and their impact on oil prices?

We are not overly concerned about FY27 earnings expectations at this stage. The Street is building in ~15% earnings growth, which comes on the back of a relatively low base of ~9% growth in FY26, making the trajectory more achievable.

That said, the key monitorable remains crude oil. If elevated crude prices sustain for a prolonged period, it can exert downward pressure on margins, particularly for consumption-oriented sectors, and may lead to moderate earnings downgrades.

However, India’s macro backdrop remains supportive—with improving balance sheets, healthy credit growth, and continued capex momentum—which should help absorb part of this pressure.

Are you currently buying banking and financial stocks amid the market decline?

We are selective in our approach towards banking and financial stocks amid the recent market decline. While the sector remains structurally strong, especially with improving credit growth and balance sheet quality, not all pockets offer equal opportunity.

We prefer institutions with strong liability franchises, consistent asset quality, and better growth visibility, particularly those that are likely to benefit as the post-merger integration stabilises.

The recent correction has created selective entry opportunities, but this is not a broad-based buying call—discipline and stock selection remain critical.

Are digital platforms, defence, and pharma still attractive investment themes at this stage?

We continue to see digital platforms, defence, and pharma as structurally attractive themes, but at this stage, we are adopting a highly selective approach.

In digital platforms, the focus is on business models with clear profitability visibility, not just growth narratives.

Defence remains a strong long-term opportunity driven by policy support and indigenisation, though valuations in parts of the space are demanding.

Pharma offers defensive characteristics and export opportunities, especially in a volatile global environment.

Do you expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged in the April policy meeting? What are your expectations regarding the RBI’s commentary?

We expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged in the upcoming April policy, maintaining a cautious stance in light of global uncertainties, particularly around crude oil and geopolitics.

While domestic macros remain relatively strong—with stable inflation and steady growth—the RBI is likely to prioritise financial stability and inflation vigilance, especially given external risks.

On the commentary, we expect the RBI to retain a balanced to slightly cautious tone, highlighting:
* Uncertainty around global commodity prices
* The need to remain watchful on inflation trajectory
* Continued support for growth without compromising stability

Overall, the stance is likely to be ‘pause with readiness to act’, rather than any immediate shift towards easing.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Why RBI may avoid a rate move in April despite strong domestic macros

12 out of 18 years India VIX has given negative returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	23.40	23.99	24.85	22.54	21.95	21.09	20.50
Fibonacci	23.09	23.44	23.99	22.54	21.99	21.64	21.09
Camarilla	22.94	23.08	23.21	22.54	22.68	22.54	22.41

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