BSE TECk

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Wall Street ended sharply lower on Friday, with the S&amp;amp;P 500 closing at its lowest in six months, as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran entered its fourth ​week, deepening worries about inflation and the potential for higher interest rates.

Sensex Today | Stock Market Live: GIFT Nifty indicates a weak start; US, Asian markets fall

Sensex and Nifty likely to open lower, tracking GIFT Nifty losses, Asian and US equities fell amid Middle East tensions, FIIs sold equities worth Rs 5518 crore, DIIs bought Rs 5706 crore

* Sensex and Nifty likely to open lower, tracking GIFT Nifty losses
* Asian and US equities fell amid Middle East tensions
* FIIs sold equities worth Rs 5518 crore, DIIs bought Rs 5706 crore

Indian equity indices are expected to open lower on March 23, tracking GIFT Nifty losses. Global markets fell amid Middle East tensions, rising US bond yields, and continued FII selling. Oil was volatile, gold slipped, and Asian currencies mostly declined.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-121

Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a negative note on March 23, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty, which was trading lower at 22,822.50.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

After witnessing a sharp decline in the previous session, Indian equity indices staged a strong rebound on March 20, supported by broad-based buying across sectors.

At close, the Sensex was up 325.72 points or 0.44 percent at 74,532.96, and the Nifty was up 112.35 points or 0.49 percent at 23,114.50.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Slips)

The GIFT Nifty traded weak at around 22,822.50, indicating a gap-down opening for the Indian equity indices.

Asian Equities (Down)

Share markets slid in Asia on Monday while U.S. bond yields hit eight-month peaks as the United States and Iran traded escalating threats and Israel planned for &quot;weeks&quot; more fighting, sending oil prices on another roller-coaster ride.



US Equities (Down)

Wall Street ended sharply lower on Friday, with the S&amp;amp;P 500 closing at its lowest in six months, as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran entered its fourth ​week, deepening worries about inflation and the potential for higher interest rates.

The S&amp;amp;P 500 declined 1.51% ​to end the session at 6,506.48 points, its lowest since September.

The Nasdaq slumped 2.01% to 21,647.61 points, leaving it down almost 10% from its record high ​close on October 29.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.96% to 45,577.47 points.



Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar was poised for a rebound on Monday as retaliatory threats escalated in the Middle East crisis, damping risk sentiment and boosting demand for haven assets.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The US Treasury 10-year yield and 2-year US Treasuries yield were up marginally at 4.38% and 3.90%, respectively



Asian Currencies (Slip)

Except Indonesian Rupiah, all other Asian currencies were trading lower in the early Monday trade with Philippines Peso leading the losers followed by South Korean Won, Malaysian Ringgit, Taiwan Dollar.



Crude (Flat)

Oil prices were again choppy with early gains quickly fizzling out, leaving Brent down 0.2% at $111.90 a barrel, but still up 55% on the month so far. U.S. crude was near flat at $98.35.



Gold (slips)

Gold fell sharply and was close to wiping out this year’s gains, as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth week and the US and Iran traded threats of new attacks.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling on March 20, as they offloaded equities worth Rs 5518 crore, however, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 5706 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Recession odds increase, but not base case yet, Global growth may turn fragile if Iran crisis persists, In near term, risk-off sentiment can persist simply because visibility is low

* Recession odds increase, but not base case yet
* Global growth may turn fragile if Iran crisis persists
* In near term, risk-off sentiment can persist simply because visibility is low

shorts/business/daily-voice-recession-odds-rise-but-aren-t-base-case-growth-could-turn-fragile-if-iran-crisis-persists-says-marcellus-arindam-mandal

According to Arindam Mandal, the Head of Global Equities at Marcellus Investment Managers, the recession odds have increased, but it is not yet the base case.

&quot;At this stage, a more balanced view would be that we are moving toward a more fragile growth environment if this crisis persists at scale, i.e not localized between a few countries,&quot; he said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

He believes that, in the near term, risk-off sentiment can persist simply because visibility is low. Markets are still trying to assess whether this is a contained disruption or something more prolonged, he said.

Do you think oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel indicate a prolonged geopolitical conflict?

Not necessarily. Oil above $100 is more a reflection of risk premium than a definitive signal of a prolonged conflict. Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of supply disruption, especially around key transit routes, rather than the certainty of sustained shortages.

From a political standpoint, there are strong incentives to prevent a prolonged spike. The US economy, despite being a net exporter, remains highly sensitive to fuel prices through consumption and inflation channels. Historically, sharp and sustained increases in oil prices have preceded most US recessions, which makes it unlikely that politicos in power would be comfortable with oil staying elevated for too long, especially given the looming US mid-term elections. So, while the current level reflects tension, it does not automatically imply duration.

Do you see higher oil prices significantly impacting global economic growth in the future?

The impact depends almost entirely on how long prices remain elevated. A short-lived spike is manageable and tends to act more as a sentiment shock. A sustained period above $100 is where it starts feeding into the real economy.

Based on work from Apollo and other macro datasets, a sustained $100 oil environment could add roughly 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points to inflation and shave off about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points from US GDP growth. That may not sound large in isolation, but it matters at the margin, especially when growth is already moderating.

So, the key variable is persistence, not the level itself.

Considering the ongoing West Asia crisis, what is the likelihood of a recession?

Recession odds have increased, but it is not yet the base case. The US economy entered this phase with reasonable momentum. For instance, the Atlanta Fed GDP now estimate for Q1 was tracking close to 2.5 to 3 percent before the latest escalation.

That said, history tells us that sustained oil shocks tend to act with a lag. If elevated energy prices persist, they can gradually erode real incomes and corporate margins, which in turn weakens demand.

At this stage, a more balanced view would be that we are moving toward a more fragile growth environment if this crisis persists at scale – i.e not localized between few countries.

Do you expect the risk-off sentiment to continue, or are valuations in key equity markets becoming attractive now?

In the near term, risk-off sentiment can persist simply because visibility is low. Markets are still trying to assess whether this is a contained disruption or something more prolonged.

What has been interesting, however, is the market’s internal rotation. Instead of a broad sell-off, leadership has shifted back toward large-cap US growth, particularly AI-linked names, which are being seen as relatively resilient given their earnings visibility.

At the same time, if the conflict remains contained and oil stabilizes, our base case would still be a return to broader participation. In that scenario, cyclical sectors that are currently under pressure could start to outperform as growth expectations stabilize.

So the market is currently in a narrow leadership phase, but that need not be permanent.

Do you expect the US dollar to remain above the 100 level in the short term? What are the main factors driving this?

In the short term, the dollar is likely to remain supported around current levels. The key drivers are a mix of safe-haven flows, relatively stronger US growth, and the impact of higher oil prices.

Higher energy prices tend to support the dollar at the margin, particularly given the US energy position relative to other major economies. In addition, the recent oil-driven inflation risk reduces the likelihood of aggressive Fed easing, which also supports the currency.

That said, the dollar’s trajectory remains closely tied to how the conflict evolves. If tensions ease and rate expectations soften, the upward pressure could moderate.

Do you anticipate gold prices to remain range-bound despite elevated geopolitical tensions in Iran?

Gold is currently balancing two opposing forces. On the one hand, geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks are supportive. On the other hand, a relatively firm dollar and higher real rates tend to cap the upside.

This creates a situation where gold can remain volatile within a range rather than trend strongly in one direction. If the geopolitical situation worsens or if central banks turn more dovish, gold could break higher. Conversely, if tensions ease and real yields remain elevated, it could consolidate.

In any case, Gold likely commands a strategic allocation in any asset allocation portfolio.

Are you still highly bullish on the AI theme?

Structurally, yes, we remain constructive on AI as a long-term theme. The scale of investment and the pace of adoption suggest that this is not a short cycle but a multi-year transformation across industries.

However, from an investment standpoint, the opportunity set is evolving. The first phase of the AI cycle has been led by a relatively narrow group of large-cap names, where demand visibility remains strong. But these companies are also operating at very high levels of growth and margins, which means expectations are elevated, and the risk-reward needs to be assessed more carefully.

What is becoming more interesting now is how the benefits of AI are starting to spread across the broader economy. This is not just about software or hyperscalers. AI is increasingly acting like a horizontal layer, improving productivity, optimizing processes, and supporting margin expansion across a wide range of industries.

Even on the supply side, what began as a shortage-driven cycle around high-end components like GPUs is gradually extending into more basic industrial and manufacturing inputs. Power infrastructure, cooling systems, specialized materials, and precision components are all becoming critical bottlenecks. In that sense, the ecosystem is widening well beyond the obvious technology names.

So while the theme itself remains intact, the next phase of returns is likely to be more distributed. The most popular names may continue to see strong demand, but the incremental investment opportunity could increasingly lie in the broader set of beneficiaries that enable, support, and adopt AI.

What is your view on the central bank's interest rate decision?

What has changed meaningfully, however, is the directional bias beyond this meeting. Prior to the recent oil shock, markets were firmly expecting rate cuts. That has now shifted. Rate cut expectations have been pushed out, and in some cases, the market is even starting to price in the possibility of hikes later this year. For instance, futures markets have at times implied as much as ~70% probability of a rate hike at some point over the next year if inflation proves persistent.

That said, I would still characterize hikes as a tail risk rather than the base case. Most economists believe the bar for tightening remains high, given weak UK growth and soft demand conditions. The more likely path, in my view, is a prolonged pause with optionality, where the Bank waits to assess whether the energy-driven inflation shock is temporary or sustained.

So stepping back, central banks are effectively in a holding pattern. Growth is slowing, but inflation risks have re-emerged due to oil. Until there is more clarity on how persistent this shock is, policymakers are likely to stay patient rather than move aggressively in either direction.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Recession odds rise but aren’t base case; growth could turn fragile if Iran crisis persists, says Marcellus’ Arindam Mandal

Markets shut on Thursday for Ram Navami; choppy week ahead., FPIs stay net sellers on West Asia conflict, weak rupee., Crude, rupee, IPOs and PMI data to steer market mood.

* Markets shut on Thursday for Ram Navami; choppy week ahead.
* FPIs stay net sellers on West Asia conflict, weak rupee.
* Crude, rupee, IPOs and PMI data to steer market mood.

Indian stock markets face a holiday-shortened week amid volatility, FPI outflows, West Asia conflict, elevated crude prices, rupee weakness, and key IPOs. Traders are advised to stay cautious, tracking technical levels and upcoming economic data.

shorts/business/dalal-street-week-ahead-west-asia-crisis-crude-prices-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

The domestic stock markets will have a holiday-shortened week ahead, with trading remaining closed on Thursday, March 26, on account of Shri Ram Navami.

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty had fallen 3.3 percent each on Thursday, marking their worst single-day decline since June 4, 2024. However, both indices ended the week with marginal losses of 0.04 percent and 0.16 percent, respectively, aided by value buying earlier in the week and a partial recovery on Friday.

Out of 16 major sectoral indices, 10 ended the week in the red. The small-cap index declined 1.1 percent, while the mid-cap index rose 0.2 percent.
Key factors to watch next week
1) FPI activity: Selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) intensified amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia. FPIs remained net sellers on all trading days in March. Total outflows through exchanges stood at Rs 90,152 crore till March 20.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said weakness in global equities following the West Asia conflict, rupee depreciation and concerns over elevated crude prices impacting growth and earnings have weighed on FPI sentiment. He added that relatively lower returns from Indian markets compared to other global markets over the past 18 months have also contributed to FPI outflows.

2) West Asia conflict: The conflict in West Asia has entered its fourth week and continues to impact global markets. Investor sentiment is likely to remain sensitive to developments in the region. Iran has warned of retaliatory action on regional infrastructure if the United States proceeds with its stance on the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump has said action would be taken if the Strait is not fully reopened.

3) Crude oil prices: Crude oil prices remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions. Prices had moved close to USD 119 per barrel following concerns over energy infrastructure in the region, before moderating slightly.

The US administration has announced a temporary relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil already loaded onto vessels before March 20, with the exemption valid till April 19.

4) Rupee movement: The movement of the Indian rupee against the US dollar will remain in focus. The rupee declined 64 paise on Friday to close at a record low of 93.53 against the dollar.

Forex dealers said persistent foreign fund outflows and rising crude prices have kept the currency under pressure. The widening trade deficit and inflation concerns amid higher energy costs are also weighing on sentiment.

5) Domestic economic data: Market participants will track HSBC Flash PMI data for manufacturing, services and composite sectors for cues on business activity. Industrial production data will also be monitored for indications of economic momentum, according to market participants.

6) IPO activity: Primary market activity is set to remain active, with multiple public issues scheduled during the week.

Mainboard IPOs of Sai Parenteral, Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) and Powerica are set to open, along with SME issues of Tipco Engineering India, Highness Microelectronics, Vivid Electromech and Emiac Technologies.

Listings expected during the week include Innovision, GSP Crop Science, Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust and Novus Loyalty. The IPO of Central Mine Planning &amp;amp; Design Institute Ltd will close on March 24.

7) Technical View: The analysts at the Choice Broking said, &quot;From a technical levels perspective, 23,850 remains the immediate resistance, followed by 24,000 and 24,150. On the downside, 22,950 and 22,700 serve as crucial support levels, with a break below 22,700 potentially triggering accelerated downside movement. Traders are advised to stay cautious and adhere to strict risk management practices amid the prevailing volatility.&quot;

8) Bank Nifty Technical View: From a momentum standpoint, the weekly RSI at 33.82 indicates weak momentum and a move toward the oversold region. A sustained close above 54,000 could signal strengthening bullish momentum and potentially trigger a recovery. However, failure to reclaim this level may keep the index under short-term corrective pressure. Traders should remain cautious and disciplined while monitoring key levels for the next directional move, said analysts at the Choice Broking.

9) Corporate Action: 

10) Market volatility: Elevated volatility, as indicated by India VIX, is expected to keep market participants cautious in the near term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street Week Ahead: West Asia crisis, crude prices among 10 key factors to watch

RBI likely to retain balanced, slightly cautious tone in April meeting amid global commodity and inflation uncertainty, Defence remains a strong long-term opportunity driven by policy support and indigenisation, Pharma offers defensive characteristics and export opportunities, especially in volatile global environment

* RBI likely to retain balanced, slightly cautious tone in April meeting amid global commodity and inflation uncertainty
* Defence remains a strong long-term opportunity driven by policy support and indigenisation
* Pharma offers defensive characteristics and export opportunities, especially in volatile global environment

shorts/business/daily-voice-why-rbi-may-avoid-a-rate-move-in-april-despite-strong-domestic-macros

Rajesh Kothari, the Founder &amp;amp; MD at ALF Accurate Advisors, expects the RBI to keep rates unchanged in the upcoming April policy, maintaining a cautious stance in light of global uncertainties, particularly around crude oil and geopolitics.

While domestic macros remain relatively strong—with stable inflation and steady growth—the RBI is likely to prioritise financial stability and inflation vigilance, especially given external risks, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, if high crude prices persist amid West Asia war, it could lead to higher subsidy burden (especially LPG/kerosene), lower excise flexibility, and potential pressure on the current account, which indirectly affects fiscal math.

Do you see the Federal Reserve raising benchmark interest rates or maintaining a prolonged pause in 2026 after the recent Fed meeting outcome?

Going forward, the duration of the war and its impact on crude oil prices will shape the policy response of central bankers globally. As of now, the Fed is clearly in pause mode.

Do you think market valuations have returned to historical averages, especially after the significant correction caused by the Iran conflict?

The Nifty is currently trading around ~18.5x FY27 earnings, which is below 10 years averages.

Do you believe the market downside is now limited, given that most of the negative West Asia news has already been priced in?

Importantly, India’s macro fundamentals today are far stronger than during the Russia–Ukraine phase—with better growth visibility, stronger balance sheets, and more resilient domestic flows. So while valuations are not outright cheap, the risk-reward has improved meaningfully, particularly for long-term investors. Hence downside seems limited.

Do you expect any impact on the fiscal deficit due to oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel?

Oil prices sustaining above $100 per barrel can have an impact on the fiscal deficit, but the extent of the impact will depend on how long prices remain elevated and the policy response of the government. India today is far better placed than in earlier cycles, with stronger tax buoyancy, controlled subsidy frameworks, and improved fiscal discipline.

That provides some cushion. However, if high crude prices persist, it could lead to higher subsidy burden (especially LPG/kerosene), lower excise flexibility, and potential pressure on the current account, which indirectly affects fiscal math. At this stage, the impact is manageable, but a prolonged period of elevated crude could lead to moderate slippage in fiscal deficit targets.

Are you concerned about FY27 earnings expectations, particularly in light of Middle East tensions and their impact on oil prices?

We are not overly concerned about FY27 earnings expectations at this stage. The Street is building in ~15% earnings growth, which comes on the back of a relatively low base of ~9% growth in FY26, making the trajectory more achievable.

That said, the key monitorable remains crude oil. If elevated crude prices sustain for a prolonged period, it can exert downward pressure on margins, particularly for consumption-oriented sectors, and may lead to moderate earnings downgrades.

However, India’s macro backdrop remains supportive—with improving balance sheets, healthy credit growth, and continued capex momentum—which should help absorb part of this pressure.

Are you currently buying banking and financial stocks amid the market decline?

We are selective in our approach towards banking and financial stocks amid the recent market decline. While the sector remains structurally strong, especially with improving credit growth and balance sheet quality, not all pockets offer equal opportunity.

We prefer institutions with strong liability franchises, consistent asset quality, and better growth visibility, particularly those that are likely to benefit as the post-merger integration stabilises.

The recent correction has created selective entry opportunities, but this is not a broad-based buying call—discipline and stock selection remain critical.

Are digital platforms, defence, and pharma still attractive investment themes at this stage?

We continue to see digital platforms, defence, and pharma as structurally attractive themes, but at this stage, we are adopting a highly selective approach.

In digital platforms, the focus is on business models with clear profitability visibility, not just growth narratives.

Defence remains a strong long-term opportunity driven by policy support and indigenisation, though valuations in parts of the space are demanding.

Pharma offers defensive characteristics and export opportunities, especially in a volatile global environment.

Do you expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged in the April policy meeting? What are your expectations regarding the RBI’s commentary?

We expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged in the upcoming April policy, maintaining a cautious stance in light of global uncertainties, particularly around crude oil and geopolitics.

While domestic macros remain relatively strong—with stable inflation and steady growth—the RBI is likely to prioritise financial stability and inflation vigilance, especially given external risks.

On the commentary, we expect the RBI to retain a balanced to slightly cautious tone, highlighting:
* Uncertainty around global commodity prices
* The need to remain watchful on inflation trajectory
* Continued support for growth without compromising stability

Overall, the stance is likely to be ‘pause with readiness to act’, rather than any immediate shift towards easing.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Why RBI may avoid a rate move in April despite strong domestic macros

10 out of 18 years BSE TECk has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	15,053.96	15,122.07	15,211.49	14,964.54	14,896.43	14,807.01	14,738.90
Fibonacci	15,024.72	15,061.89	15,122.07	14,964.54	14,904.36	14,867.19	14,807.01
Camarilla	15,000.29	15,014.73	15,029.17	14,964.54	14,971.41	14,956.97	14,942.53

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