BSE TECk

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to open on a positive note today, with cues coming from GIFT Nifty, which was trading higher at around 26,151.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

The Indian equity indices ended lower in yet another volatile trading session, dragging the indices on their third straight session on November 25, with Nifty below 25,900 amid selling seen in the IT, media, and oil &amp;amp; gas stocks.

At close, the Sensex was down 313.70 points or 0.37 percent at 84,587.01, and the Nifty was down 74.70 points or 0.29 percent at 25,884.80.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Up)

The GIFT Nifty is trading higher at around 26,151, indicating a positive start for the day.

Asian Equities (Gain)

Asian stocks extended their gains into a third day, tracking advances on Wall Street as weak US consumer data lifted bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month.



US Equities (Rise)

Wall Street extended its rally on Tuesday as a spate of economic data appeared to support the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to implement its third and final rate cut of the year in December, while softness in the tech sector limited the Nasdaq's gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 664.18 points, or 1.43%, to 47,112.45, the S&amp;amp;P 500 gained 60.77 points, or 0.91%, to 6,765.89, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 153.59 points, or 0.67%, to 23,025.59.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The yield on 10-year Treasuries and 2-year Treasuries yield up marginally at 4 percent and 3.46 percent, respectively.



Dollar Index (Flat)

The dollar eased on Wednesday after benign U.S. economic data reinforced expectations of a December rate cut, and as investors wagered that the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair may guide policy in a more dovish direction.



Asian Currencies (Gain)

Asian currencies were trading mostly higher on Wednesday, with the South Korean Won leading the gainers, followed by the Indonesian Rupiah, the Taiwan Dollar, the Philippines Peso, and the Malaysian Ringgit.



Crude (Up)

Oil steadied after closing at its lowest in a month on signs of progress toward a peace deal in
Ukraine.



Gold (Up)

Gold wavered, as traders weighed the growing prospect of an interest-rate cut in the US against a possible peace deal in Ukraine.



Fund Flow Action

After remaining net sellers for the last two days, the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) bought equities of Rs 785 crore on November 25, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased equities of Rs 3,912 crore on the same day.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates:  Wall Street extended its rally on Tuesday as a spate of economic data appeared to support the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to implement its third and final rate cut of the year in December, while softness in the tech sector limited the Nasdaq's gains.

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Stock Market LIVE Updates: GIFT Nifty hints a positive start; US, Asian markets gain

Live Blog

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates:  Wall Street extended its rally on Tuesday as a spate of economic data appeared to support the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to implement its third and final rate cut of the year in December, while softness in the tech sector limited the Nasdaq's gains.

The prospect of the India-US trade deal materialising within the next one to two months would sit comfortably within the logic of current developments, Anil Rego, Founder and Fund Manager at Right Horizons PMS, said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

When energy realignment, tariff posture, and diplomatic signalling all shift in the same direction, they often foreshadow a breakthrough before it becomes publicly visible, he believes.

Meanwhile, according to Anil Rego, HDFC Bank appears inexpensive compared with its long-term trading range and the visibility of its medium-term earnings trajectory. "The combination of stable profitability, controlled operating expenses, and a strong capital position creates a financial profile that is stronger than what the current market pricing may imply," he reasoned.

Will you not be surprised if the India-US deal goes through in the next 1-2 months?

The prospect of the India-US trade deal materialising within the next one to two months would sit comfortably within the logic of current developments. Over the past few weeks, the most telling signals have come not from public statements but from India’s sharp rebalancing of its energy basket. Russian crude arrivals have dropped significantly, US crude imports have climbed to multi-year highs, and a major long-term LPG contract has been finalised.

Each of these moves reduces a major strategic irritant for Washington and strengthens India’s position as a more predictable, diversified energy partner. At the same time, the tariff exchanges between New Delhi and Washington, though sharp on the surface, reflect managed pressure rather than a collapse in engagement, with exemptions, calibrated duties, and active discussions on standards and services continuing behind the scenes.

Political language has also shifted meaningfully. India has signalled confidence that progress is close once a balanced arrangement is reached, and the US tone has softened as India’s energy adjustments become more visible. Even though difficult issues remain, digital rules, professional mobility, and agriculture, the overall direction of movement points towards convergence rather than drift.

When energy realignment, tariff posture, and diplomatic signalling all shift in the same direction, they often foreshadow a breakthrough before it becomes publicly visible. Under those conditions, the emergence of a deal within a short window would be a natural extension of the trajectory already in motion.

Do you think India will avoid opening some sectors to foreign players and that tariffs will remain in place, although not at current levels?

India is likely to maintain a calibrated approach, preserving protection for politically sensitive sectors while allowing measured openings where domestic capabilities are strong and competitive. Agriculture, certain MSME-led categories and segments tied to data and digital rules are areas where the government is expected to remain cautious, both to shield local livelihoods and to retain policy flexibility.

At the same time, sectors aligned with global value chains, such as advanced manufacturing, clean energy components and services, are more likely to see incremental easing as part of a balanced arrangement.

Tariffs, too, are unlikely to disappear entirely. Instead, they are expected to settle at moderated, more predictable levels that reduce friction without exposing domestic industries to abrupt shocks. This blend of selective protection and targeted liberalisation fits India’s current strategy: safeguard vulnerable sectors, deepen strategic partnerships and enable foreign participation where it enhances competitiveness.

The outcome is not a sweeping opening, but a structured recalibration that balances economic priorities with political and developmental realities.

Do you think <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/hdfcbank/HDF01">HDFC Bank</a> looks undervalued?

Looking at the bank’s fundamentals and market positioning, the current valuation appears lower relative to its strength across key metrics. The bank continues to deliver steady profit growth, resilient asset quality, and stable return ratios, with RoA holding around the upper end of the large-bank range.

Margins have softened slightly but remain within a healthy band, and the underlying drivers point toward gradual improvement as funding costs normalise and high-cost liabilities run off. Loan growth is tracking well with system demand, supported by broad-based momentum across retail, corporate and MSME segments, while credit costs remain contained with no signs of stress in early indicators.

At the same time, the bank’s valuation multiples have compressed relative to historical averages despite consistent earnings compounding and a clearly articulated path toward restoring its loan–deposit ratio to more comfortable levels. The combination of stable profitability, controlled operating expenses, and a strong capital position creates a financial profile that is stronger than what the current market pricing may imply.

Against this backdrop, the stock appears inexpensive compared with its long-term trading range and the visibility of its medium-term earnings trajectory.

Do you see more steam left in PSU banks even after the sharp rally since September?

Despite the sharp rally since September, the PSU banking space still carries pockets of momentum, but the character of the uptrend is likely to change. Much of the earlier surge was driven by a powerful combination of multi-year balance-sheet clean-up, strong earnings visibility, high provision buffers, and improving credit demand, all of which remain intact.

Return ratios for many large PSU banks are stabilising at levels that were previously thought unsustainable, and their capital positions are far stronger than they were in past cycles. These structural improvements mean the sector is not purely sentiment-driven and still has fundamental support underneath.

Margins are expected to stay under pressure in the near term as deposit costs catch up, and treasury gains, which boosted profitability during falling bond yields, may normalise as rates stabilise. Credit growth is healthy but not accelerating meaningfully, suggesting upgrades will be more measured going forward.

In this backdrop, the sector can still extend its performance into 2026, but the trajectory may be more moderate and selective rather than broad-based. The steam is not entirely exhausted, but the rally is likely to shift from being valuation-led to earnings-led, favouring banks with stronger deposit franchises, better operating leverage and consistent asset quality delivery.

One global expert believes Indian IT services may be a net loser due to automation. Do you agree? Do you see strong value at current levels and potential for a rally going forward?

Automation will undoubtedly reshape parts of the IT services landscape, but the idea that Indian IT will be a “net loser” misses the larger transition underway. Automation and AI are compressing low-value work—manual testing, L1 support, basic coding, but they are simultaneously creating newer, larger service lines around AI integration, application modernization, data engineering, and enterprise-wide transformation.

The hardware-heavy phase of the AI cycle is already peaking, and the next phase, the services-led deployment, begins once capex intensity flattens. That is typically when Indian IT revenue cycles bottom out and begin to accelerate.

In fact, the sector is approaching a potential inflection point over the next 6–9 months as enterprises move from pilots to full-scale AI adoption. Global digital engineering leaders are already reporting a shift from experimentation to deployment programs, indicating rising discretionary budgets and stronger deal pipelines.

For Indian IT, this transition mirrors the early cloud cycle, where an initial short-term headwind eventually gives way to a multi-year growth phase driven by modernization, cloud-native development, and data workloads.

At current market levels, the value argument is also strengthening. The sector’s weight in the benchmark index has fallen to a decadal low even though its contribution to aggregate profits remains stable, suggesting that scepticism around AI-led deflation is largely priced in. Earnings growth is subdued today, but the visibility improves meaningfully from FY27 onward as AI-led services begin contributing more materially. This setup leaves room for re-rating once growth normalises.

Overall, automation is not eliminating demand; it is redirecting it. The companies best placed to capture this shift are those with strong AI stacks, hyperscaler partnerships, modernization depth and the ability to convert services into platforms. With the business cycle near its bottom and the AI deployment phase approaching, the sector does exhibit value and the potential for a broader-based rally as the next spending cycle unfolds.

Do you think there will be no macro risks for India going ahead? If not, what could be the key risk factors in the year ahead?

India’s macro backdrop has been exceptionally stable, but that does not eliminate risks. Growth momentum, fiscal consolidation, and external balances all look healthier than previous cycles, yet the economy is still exposed to a handful of structural and global factors that could influence the outlook over the next year.

The most important external risk remains global volatility. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in the US or Europe, or any prolongation of high-for-longer interest rate cycles, can weigh on exports, capital flows and corporate investment.

Oil prices continue to be a swing variable; any sustained move above comfort levels would pressure inflation, the fiscal math, and the current account. Financial market disruptions, especially if global liquidity tightens suddenly, can also spill over into domestic bond yields and equity markets.

Domestically, inflation, though under control, remains sensitive to weather patterns, food supply disruptions, and commodity swings, which can delay rate cuts and affect consumption. A slower recovery in private capex or any pause in the government’s infrastructure push could soften growth impulses.

Finally, labour market formalisation and policy transitions, such as the implementation of new labour codes, may carry short-term adjustment challenges even though they strengthen the medium-term outlook.

Overall, the macro environment remains fundamentally resilient, but the year ahead will require navigating global economic uncertainty, commodity risks and domestic inflation dynamics. These are not destabilising risks, but they are important factors that can alter the smoothness of the growth trajectory.

Do you expect further correction in the US markets, considering the recent decline appears to be only a partial correction?

A further correction cannot be ruled out, but the balance of evidence still suggests that the recent pullback resembles a sentiment-driven correction rather than the beginning of a deeper, fundamentals-led bear market. The decline so far has been swift, narrative-linked, and has unfolded against a backdrop of strong corporate earnings, easing inflation, and ongoing AI-driven capital expenditure, all characteristics typically associated with short-term corrections instead of prolonged downturns.

From a macro perspective, the outlook remains anchored by resilient US growth, supported by high corporate profitability, elevated investment cycles, and the early but powerful phase of widespread AI deployment. These factors continue to provide a meaningful cushion against sustained downside risk.

Even so, several short-term pressures could keep volatility elevated and potentially extend the correction phase. The high concentration of market gains within the top ten US stocks has increased sensitivity to earnings surprises and shifts in market narratives.

Policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve, particularly as labour-market trends evolve, may add to near-term swings. Tariff-related pricing adjustments, the renewed wave of fiscal activism, and political developments ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections could also intermittently weigh on sentiment.

Moreover, valuations remain elevated, and such starting points naturally allow for periodic pullbacks, even within a healthy bull market.

Importantly, the underlying fundamentals still do not point to a structural downturn. Earnings strength remains broad-based across sectors, corporate capex, especially in AI-linked areas, is firmly in an early-cycle phase, and credit conditions continue to reflect a mid-cycle environment rather than emerging stress.

At the same time, fiscal policy across major economies remains expansionary, providing additional support to growth and limiting the risk of a deeper contraction.

Overall, while a deeper correction is possible as markets recalibrate to stretched valuations and shifting macro narratives, the probability of a full-scale bear market appears low at this stage. The broader investment backdrop heading into 2026 continues to favour expansion, punctuated by episodes of volatility rather than a lasting trend reversal.

Sentiment indicators are also at lows. In the past, one has seen rallies when sentiment indicators are at such lows. In the medium to long term, one needs to be watching the growth of AI-linked stocks for cues of a larger cycle turning correction.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: India-US trade deal likely within 1-2 months; HDFC Bank looks undervalued, says Anil Rego

The prospect of the India-US trade deal materialising within the next one to two months would sit comfortably within the logic of current developments, Anil Rego, Founder and Fund Manager at Right Horizons PMS, said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

When energy realignment, tariff posture, and diplomatic signalling all shift in the same direction, they often foreshadow a breakthrough before it becomes publicly visible, he believes.

Meanwhile, according to Anil Rego, HDFC Bank appears inexpensive compared with its long-term trading range and the visibility of its medium-term earnings trajectory. &quot;The combination of stable profitability, controlled operating expenses, and a strong capital position creates a financial profile that is stronger than what the current market pricing may imply,&quot; he reasoned.

Will you not be surprised if the India-US deal goes through in the next 1-2 months?

The prospect of the India-US trade deal materialising within the next one to two months would sit comfortably within the logic of current developments. Over the past few weeks, the most telling signals have come not from public statements but from India’s sharp rebalancing of its energy basket. Russian crude arrivals have dropped significantly, US crude imports have climbed to multi-year highs, and a major long-term LPG contract has been finalised.

Each of these moves reduces a major strategic irritant for Washington and strengthens India’s position as a more predictable, diversified energy partner. At the same time, the tariff exchanges between New Delhi and Washington, though sharp on the surface, reflect managed pressure rather than a collapse in engagement, with exemptions, calibrated duties, and active discussions on standards and services continuing behind the scenes.

Political language has also shifted meaningfully. India has signalled confidence that progress is close once a balanced arrangement is reached, and the US tone has softened as India’s energy adjustments become more visible. Even though difficult issues remain, digital rules, professional mobility, and agriculture, the overall direction of movement points towards convergence rather than drift.

When energy realignment, tariff posture, and diplomatic signalling all shift in the same direction, they often foreshadow a breakthrough before it becomes publicly visible. Under those conditions, the emergence of a deal within a short window would be a natural extension of the trajectory already in motion.

Do you think India will avoid opening some sectors to foreign players and that tariffs will remain in place, although not at current levels?

India is likely to maintain a calibrated approach, preserving protection for politically sensitive sectors while allowing measured openings where domestic capabilities are strong and competitive. Agriculture, certain MSME-led categories and segments tied to data and digital rules are areas where the government is expected to remain cautious, both to shield local livelihoods and to retain policy flexibility.

At the same time, sectors aligned with global value chains, such as advanced manufacturing, clean energy components and services, are more likely to see incremental easing as part of a balanced arrangement.

Tariffs, too, are unlikely to disappear entirely. Instead, they are expected to settle at moderated, more predictable levels that reduce friction without exposing domestic industries to abrupt shocks. This blend of selective protection and targeted liberalisation fits India’s current strategy: safeguard vulnerable sectors, deepen strategic partnerships and enable foreign participation where it enhances competitiveness.

The outcome is not a sweeping opening, but a structured recalibration that balances economic priorities with political and developmental realities.

Do you think HDFC Bank looks undervalued?

Looking at the bank’s fundamentals and market positioning, the current valuation appears lower relative to its strength across key metrics. The bank continues to deliver steady profit growth, resilient asset quality, and stable return ratios, with RoA holding around the upper end of the large-bank range.

Margins have softened slightly but remain within a healthy band, and the underlying drivers point toward gradual improvement as funding costs normalise and high-cost liabilities run off. Loan growth is tracking well with system demand, supported by broad-based momentum across retail, corporate and MSME segments, while credit costs remain contained with no signs of stress in early indicators.

At the same time, the bank’s valuation multiples have compressed relative to historical averages despite consistent earnings compounding and a clearly articulated path toward restoring its loan–deposit ratio to more comfortable levels. The combination of stable profitability, controlled operating expenses, and a strong capital position creates a financial profile that is stronger than what the current market pricing may imply.

Against this backdrop, the stock appears inexpensive compared with its long-term trading range and the visibility of its medium-term earnings trajectory.

Do you see more steam left in PSU banks even after the sharp rally since September?

Despite the sharp rally since September, the PSU banking space still carries pockets of momentum, but the character of the uptrend is likely to change. Much of the earlier surge was driven by a powerful combination of multi-year balance-sheet clean-up, strong earnings visibility, high provision buffers, and improving credit demand, all of which remain intact.

Return ratios for many large PSU banks are stabilising at levels that were previously thought unsustainable, and their capital positions are far stronger than they were in past cycles. These structural improvements mean the sector is not purely sentiment-driven and still has fundamental support underneath.

Margins are expected to stay under pressure in the near term as deposit costs catch up, and treasury gains, which boosted profitability during falling bond yields, may normalise as rates stabilise. Credit growth is healthy but not accelerating meaningfully, suggesting upgrades will be more measured going forward.

In this backdrop, the sector can still extend its performance into 2026, but the trajectory may be more moderate and selective rather than broad-based. The steam is not entirely exhausted, but the rally is likely to shift from being valuation-led to earnings-led, favouring banks with stronger deposit franchises, better operating leverage and consistent asset quality delivery.

One global expert believes Indian IT services may be a net loser due to automation. Do you agree? Do you see strong value at current levels and potential for a rally going forward?

Automation will undoubtedly reshape parts of the IT services landscape, but the idea that Indian IT will be a “net loser” misses the larger transition underway. Automation and AI are compressing low-value work—manual testing, L1 support, basic coding, but they are simultaneously creating newer, larger service lines around AI integration, application modernization, data engineering, and enterprise-wide transformation.

The hardware-heavy phase of the AI cycle is already peaking, and the next phase, the services-led deployment, begins once capex intensity flattens. That is typically when Indian IT revenue cycles bottom out and begin to accelerate.

In fact, the sector is approaching a potential inflection point over the next 6–9 months as enterprises move from pilots to full-scale AI adoption. Global digital engineering leaders are already reporting a shift from experimentation to deployment programs, indicating rising discretionary budgets and stronger deal pipelines.

For Indian IT, this transition mirrors the early cloud cycle, where an initial short-term headwind eventually gives way to a multi-year growth phase driven by modernization, cloud-native development, and data workloads.

At current market levels, the value argument is also strengthening. The sector’s weight in the benchmark index has fallen to a decadal low even though its contribution to aggregate profits remains stable, suggesting that scepticism around AI-led deflation is largely priced in. Earnings growth is subdued today, but the visibility improves meaningfully from FY27 onward as AI-led services begin contributing more materially. This setup leaves room for re-rating once growth normalises.

Overall, automation is not eliminating demand; it is redirecting it. The companies best placed to capture this shift are those with strong AI stacks, hyperscaler partnerships, modernization depth and the ability to convert services into platforms. With the business cycle near its bottom and the AI deployment phase approaching, the sector does exhibit value and the potential for a broader-based rally as the next spending cycle unfolds.

Do you think there will be no macro risks for India going ahead? If not, what could be the key risk factors in the year ahead?

India’s macro backdrop has been exceptionally stable, but that does not eliminate risks. Growth momentum, fiscal consolidation, and external balances all look healthier than previous cycles, yet the economy is still exposed to a handful of structural and global factors that could influence the outlook over the next year.

The most important external risk remains global volatility. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in the US or Europe, or any prolongation of high-for-longer interest rate cycles, can weigh on exports, capital flows and corporate investment.

Oil prices continue to be a swing variable; any sustained move above comfort levels would pressure inflation, the fiscal math, and the current account. Financial market disruptions, especially if global liquidity tightens suddenly, can also spill over into domestic bond yields and equity markets.

Domestically, inflation, though under control, remains sensitive to weather patterns, food supply disruptions, and commodity swings, which can delay rate cuts and affect consumption. A slower recovery in private capex or any pause in the government’s infrastructure push could soften growth impulses.

Finally, labour market formalisation and policy transitions, such as the implementation of new labour codes, may carry short-term adjustment challenges even though they strengthen the medium-term outlook.

Overall, the macro environment remains fundamentally resilient, but the year ahead will require navigating global economic uncertainty, commodity risks and domestic inflation dynamics. These are not destabilising risks, but they are important factors that can alter the smoothness of the growth trajectory.

Do you expect further correction in the US markets, considering the recent decline appears to be only a partial correction?

A further correction cannot be ruled out, but the balance of evidence still suggests that the recent pullback resembles a sentiment-driven correction rather than the beginning of a deeper, fundamentals-led bear market. The decline so far has been swift, narrative-linked, and has unfolded against a backdrop of strong corporate earnings, easing inflation, and ongoing AI-driven capital expenditure, all characteristics typically associated with short-term corrections instead of prolonged downturns.

From a macro perspective, the outlook remains anchored by resilient US growth, supported by high corporate profitability, elevated investment cycles, and the early but powerful phase of widespread AI deployment. These factors continue to provide a meaningful cushion against sustained downside risk.

Even so, several short-term pressures could keep volatility elevated and potentially extend the correction phase. The high concentration of market gains within the top ten US stocks has increased sensitivity to earnings surprises and shifts in market narratives.

Policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve, particularly as labour-market trends evolve, may add to near-term swings. Tariff-related pricing adjustments, the renewed wave of fiscal activism, and political developments ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections could also intermittently weigh on sentiment.

Moreover, valuations remain elevated, and such starting points naturally allow for periodic pullbacks, even within a healthy bull market.

Importantly, the underlying fundamentals still do not point to a structural downturn. Earnings strength remains broad-based across sectors, corporate capex, especially in AI-linked areas, is firmly in an early-cycle phase, and credit conditions continue to reflect a mid-cycle environment rather than emerging stress.

At the same time, fiscal policy across major economies remains expansionary, providing additional support to growth and limiting the risk of a deeper contraction.

Overall, while a deeper correction is possible as markets recalibrate to stretched valuations and shifting macro narratives, the probability of a full-scale bear market appears low at this stage. The broader investment backdrop heading into 2026 continues to favour expansion, punctuated by episodes of volatility rather than a lasting trend reversal.

Sentiment indicators are also at lows. In the past, one has seen rallies when sentiment indicators are at such lows. In the medium to long term, one needs to be watching the growth of AI-linked stocks for cues of a larger cycle turning correction.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Indian equities extended their losing streak for a third consecutive session on November 25, dragged down by banking and information technology stocks. Sentiment remained fragile as investors turned cautious ahead of key macroeconomic data and global cues. By the closing bell, the Sensex was down 313.70 points or 0.37 percent at 84,587.01, and the Nifty was down 74.70 points or 0.29 percent at 25,884.80.

Sectoral trends reflected the uneven mood in the market. Nifty Media emerged as the worst performer, falling 0.8 percent, followed by Nifty IT and Nifty Consumer Durables, each shedding 0.5 percent. On the other hand, pockets of resilience were visible in realty and public-sector banking counters. Nifty Realty advanced 1.6 percent, making it the day’s top gainer, while Nifty PSU Bank rose 1.3 percent and Nifty Metal added 0.5 percent.

Investors are now looking ahead to India’s GDP data, scheduled for release on Friday, which is expected to set the tone for near-term market direction.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said the domestic market saw sharp volatility on expiry day, driven by a weakening INR and persistent FII selling. He added that uncertainty around a possible rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting and developments on the Indo-US trade deal kept investors on edge, despite some improving signals. According to Nair, selling pressure remains visible near the 26,000 mark on the Nifty, though he believes the downside is limited given strong domestic fundamentals, including a robust earnings outlook for the second half of the fiscal year. He noted that PSU banks and real estate stocks stood out, supported by a revival in home-loan demand and increasing market share for state-run lenders.

Globally, equities edged higher on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials reinforced expectations of a December rate cut, prompting investors to rotate back into technology stocks despite lingering concerns about stretched valuations. Confidence in a potential cut grew after Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that the softening U.S. labour market could justify another quarter-point reduction. His remarks came shortly after New York Fed President John Williams indicated that a December cut remained on the table.

Investors will also parse delayed data on retail sales, wholesale inflation, home prices and consumer confidence later in the day, though analysts believe these releases are unlikely to significantly alter expectations around the Fed’s next move.

In Asia, Japanese markets were overshadowed by mounting geopolitical tension between Tokyo and Beijing. The strain stems from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remark that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could potentially trigger a Japanese military response. Takaichi spoke with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, following his conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping a day earlier. She said Trump outlined his view of U.S.-China relations during the call. Trump also announced plans to visit Beijing in April, a development widely seen as a further step toward stabilising ties between Washington and Beijing after years of trade friction.

U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will operate on a shortened schedule on Friday.

Indian markets extend losing streak as banks, IT drag; global tech rally builds on Fed rate-cut hopes

Indian equities extended their losing streak for a third consecutive session on November 25, dragged down by banking and information technology stocks. Sentiment remained fragile as investors turned cautious ahead of key macroeconomic data and global cues. By the closing bell, the Sensex was down 313.70 points or 0.37 percent at 84,587.01, and the Nifty was down 74.70 points or 0.29 percent at 25,884.80.

Sectoral trends reflected the uneven mood in the market. Nifty Media emerged as the worst performer, falling 0.8 percent, followed by Nifty IT and Nifty Consumer Durables, each shedding 0.5 percent. On the other hand, pockets of resilience were visible in realty and public-sector banking counters. Nifty Realty advanced 1.6 percent, making it the day’s top gainer, while Nifty PSU Bank rose 1.3 percent and Nifty Metal added 0.5 percent.

Investors are now looking ahead to India’s GDP data, scheduled for release on Friday, which is expected to set the tone for near-term market direction.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said the domestic market saw sharp volatility on expiry day, driven by a weakening INR and persistent FII selling. He added that uncertainty around a possible rate cut in the upcoming FOMC meeting and developments on the Indo-US trade deal kept investors on edge, despite some improving signals. According to Nair, selling pressure remains visible near the 26,000 mark on the Nifty, though he believes the downside is limited given strong domestic fundamentals, including a robust earnings outlook for the second half of the fiscal year. He noted that PSU banks and real estate stocks stood out, supported by a revival in home-loan demand and increasing market share for state-run lenders.

Globally, equities edged higher on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials reinforced expectations of a December rate cut, prompting investors to rotate back into technology stocks despite lingering concerns about stretched valuations. Confidence in a potential cut grew after Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested that the softening U.S. labour market could justify another quarter-point reduction. His remarks came shortly after New York Fed President John Williams indicated that a December cut remained on the table.

Investors will also parse delayed data on retail sales, wholesale inflation, home prices and consumer confidence later in the day, though analysts believe these releases are unlikely to significantly alter expectations around the Fed’s next move.

In Asia, Japanese markets were overshadowed by mounting geopolitical tension between Tokyo and Beijing. The strain stems from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remark that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could potentially trigger a Japanese military response. Takaichi spoke with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, following his conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping a day earlier. She said Trump outlined his view of U.S.-China relations during the call. Trump also announced plans to visit Beijing in April, a development widely seen as a further step toward stabilising ties between Washington and Beijing after years of trade friction.

U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will operate on a shortened schedule on Friday.

The Indian equity indices ended lower in yet another volatile trading session, dragging the indices on third straight session on November 25, with Nifty below 25,900 amid selling seen in the IT, media and oil &amp; gas stocks.

The market started the session higher but erased the gains and traded in a range throughout the session, however, the final-hour selling dragged the Nifty below 25,900.

At close, the Sensex was down 313.70 points or 0.37 percent at 84,587.01, and the Nifty was down 74.70 points or 0.29 percent at 25,884.80.

Broader market indices outperformed the key indices, with BSE Midcap and smallcap indices ended with little gain.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/india-s-outbound-capital-via-gift-city-surges-8x-as-affluent-investors-globalise-portfolios-13694004.html">India’s outbound capital via GIFT City surges 8x as affluent investors globalise portfolios</a>

Hindalco Industries, SBI, Bharat Electronics, Shriram Finance, HDFC Life were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers included Adani Enterprises, TMPV, Infosys, HDFC Bank and Trent.

On the sectoral front, metal, pharma, PSU Bank and realty added 0.5-1%, while consumer durables, IT, media, oil &amp; gas shed 0.5% each.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/currency/imf-likely-to-alter-classification-of-india-s-forex-framework-13694315.html">IMF likely to alter classification of India’s forex framework</a>

In stock-specific action, Surya Roshni shares gain 2% on bagging order worth Rs 105.18 crore, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories shares gain on EU approval for AVT03 (denosumab), a proposed biosimilar of Prolia and Xgeva, Yatra Online's shares shed 1% on CEO resignation, Blue Cloud Softech shares fell 3% on JV with Byte Eclipse Technologies Inc.

Reliance Infrastructure shares fell 4% on block deal of 1.26% equity, Ashok Leyland shares rose 1% post block deal, Transformers and Rectifiers share price jumped 4% on order win of Rs 389.97 crore, Niraj Cement share price added nearly 9% on bagging order of Rs 220 crore.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/bitcoin-tanks-21-in-november-steepest-since-june-2022-as-etf-outflows-surge-13694180.html">Bitcoin tanks 21% in November, steepest since June 2022 as ETF outflows surge</a>

Nearly 80 stocks hit 52-week high, including Federal Bank, GMR Airports, Muthoot Finance, GMR Airports, AU Small Finance Bank, Reliance Industries, Hero MotoCorp, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/bselow/index.ph">Click to View More</a>

On the other hand, nearly 280 stocks hit 52-week low, including Deepak Nitrite, SJVN, United Breweries, CG Consumer, Tejas Networks, PCBL Chemical, Chambal Ferlisers, Galaxy Surfactants, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/bselow/index.php">Click to View More</a>

Outlook for November 26

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets were volatile on monthly expiry day and ended marginally lower, extending the recent phase of profit-taking. After a flat start, the Nifty moved within a narrow range for most of the session, but a late-hour decline dragged the index down. It eventually closed at 25,884.80 , down 0.29%.

Sectorally, the trend was mixed. Realty, metal, and pharma stocks registered gains, while IT and FMCG were among the notable laggards. Market breadth was slightly positive, supported by a mild rebound in the midcap and smallcap segments after the recent correction.

Sentiment remained cautious amid persistent global headwinds, including mixed US economic data and ongoing geopolitical concerns that continued to weigh on risk appetite. Domestically, traders stayed guarded due to the November derivatives expiry, with foreign institutional investor flows remaining subdued.

The index has been advancing at a measured pace since August 2025, with sharp retracements appearing after every up-move. A similar pattern seems to be unfolding now. The Nifty is once again approaching its short-term support at the 20-DEMA, near 25,800, which will be crucial to defend for momentum to sustain.

A breach could extend the consolidation phase toward the next major support at 25,600.

We recommend maintaining a cautious yet constructive outlook, with an emphasis on stock selection based on relative strength. Traders may also consider a few tactical short positions as a hedge against existing long trades.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty continued with weakness for the third consecutive sessions on Tuesday and closed the day lower by 74 points amidst volatility. After opening on a positive note, the market stood higher for better part of the session. Sharp weakness was seen towards the end and Nifty finally closed near the lows.

A long bear candle has been formed on the daily chart with minor upper shadow. Technically, this market action indicates down trend continuation pattern in the market for the short term. The formation of overlapping negative candles in the last few sessions signals sell on rise in the market.

The larger degree bullish pattern like higher tops and bottoms is intact and present weakness is expected to find base at the cluster support of around 25800-25700 levels to form a new higher bottom in the next few sessions (previous opening up gap-12th Nov and uptrend line). Immediate resistance is placed at 26050.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Taking Stock: Nifty below 25,900 on final hour selling; Sensex sheds 314 points

The Indian equity indices ended lower in yet another volatile trading session, dragging the indices on third straight session on November 25, with Nifty below 25,900 amid selling seen in the IT, media and oil &amp;amp; gas stocks.

The market started the session higher but erased the gains and traded in a range throughout the session, however, the final-hour selling dragged the Nifty below 25,900.

At close, the Sensex was down 313.70 points or 0.37 percent at 84,587.01, and the Nifty was down 74.70 points or 0.29 percent at 25,884.80.

Broader market indices outperformed the key indices, with BSE Midcap and smallcap indices ended with little gain.

Also Read: India’s outbound capital via GIFT City surges 8x as affluent investors globalise portfolios

Hindalco Industries, SBI, Bharat Electronics, Shriram Finance, HDFC Life were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers included Adani Enterprises, TMPV, Infosys, HDFC Bank and Trent.

On the sectoral front, metal, pharma, PSU Bank and realty added 0.5-1%, while consumer durables, IT, media, oil &amp;amp; gas shed 0.5% each.

Also Read: IMF likely to alter classification of India’s forex framework

In stock-specific action, Surya Roshni shares gain 2% on bagging order worth Rs 105.18 crore, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories shares gain on EU approval for AVT03 (denosumab), a proposed biosimilar of Prolia and Xgeva, Yatra Online's shares shed 1% on CEO resignation, Blue Cloud Softech shares fell 3% on JV with Byte Eclipse Technologies Inc.

Reliance Infrastructure shares fell 4% on block deal of 1.26% equity, Ashok Leyland shares rose 1% post block deal, Transformers and Rectifiers share price jumped 4% on order win of Rs 389.97 crore, Niraj Cement share price added nearly 9% on bagging order of Rs 220 crore.

Also Read: Bitcoin tanks 21% in November, steepest since June 2022 as ETF outflows surge

Nearly 80 stocks hit 52-week high, including Federal Bank, GMR Airports, Muthoot Finance, GMR Airports, AU Small Finance Bank, Reliance Industries, Hero MotoCorp, among others. Click to View More

On the other hand, nearly 280 stocks hit 52-week low, including Deepak Nitrite, SJVN, United Breweries, CG Consumer, Tejas Networks, PCBL Chemical, Chambal Ferlisers, Galaxy Surfactants, among others. Click to View More

Outlook for November 26

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets were volatile on monthly expiry day and ended marginally lower, extending the recent phase of profit-taking. After a flat start, the Nifty moved within a narrow range for most of the session, but a late-hour decline dragged the index down. It eventually closed at 25,884.80 , down 0.29%.

Sectorally, the trend was mixed. Realty, metal, and pharma stocks registered gains, while IT and FMCG were among the notable laggards. Market breadth was slightly positive, supported by a mild rebound in the midcap and smallcap segments after the recent correction.

Sentiment remained cautious amid persistent global headwinds, including mixed US economic data and ongoing geopolitical concerns that continued to weigh on risk appetite. Domestically, traders stayed guarded due to the November derivatives expiry, with foreign institutional investor flows remaining subdued.

The index has been advancing at a measured pace since August 2025, with sharp retracements appearing after every up-move. A similar pattern seems to be unfolding now. The Nifty is once again approaching its short-term support at the 20-DEMA, near 25,800, which will be crucial to defend for momentum to sustain.

A breach could extend the consolidation phase toward the next major support at 25,600.

We recommend maintaining a cautious yet constructive outlook, with an emphasis on stock selection based on relative strength. Traders may also consider a few tactical short positions as a hedge against existing long trades.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty continued with weakness for the third consecutive sessions on Tuesday and closed the day lower by 74 points amidst volatility. After opening on a positive note, the market stood higher for better part of the session. Sharp weakness was seen towards the end and Nifty finally closed near the lows.

A long bear candle has been formed on the daily chart with minor upper shadow. Technically, this market action indicates down trend continuation pattern in the market for the short term. The formation of overlapping negative candles in the last few sessions signals sell on rise in the market.

The larger degree bullish pattern like higher tops and bottoms is intact and present weakness is expected to find base at the cluster support of around 25800-25700 levels to form a new higher bottom in the next few sessions (previous opening up gap-12th Nov and uptrend line). Immediate resistance is placed at 26050.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

10 out of 17 years BSE TECk has given positive returns in November.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	18,317.21	18,398.79	18,467.06	18,248.94	18,167.36	18,099.09	18,017.51
Fibonacci	18,306.18	18,341.55	18,398.79	18,248.94	18,191.70	18,156.33	18,099.09
Camarilla	18,249.37	18,263.10	18,276.84	18,248.94	18,221.89	18,208.16	18,194.42

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