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Nifty Aims To Defend 26,000 Amid Thin Volumes, Record-Low VIX| Opening Bell Live

Nimesh Chandan expects corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

India may raise customs duties and offer targeted incentives for about 100 products with high import dependence, aiming to reduce the trade deficit and reliance on single-country supply chains, especially China, according to an Economic Times report.

shorts/business/daily-voice-nimesh-chandan-bullish-on-earnings-growth-acceleration-next-year-double-digit-profit-growth-seen-in-h2fy26

Earnings growth is set to accelerate as we move into 2026, said Nimesh Chandan, Chief Investment Officer at Bajaj Finserv Asset Management. He expects corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

According to him, the Fed’s December move likely marks the end of its rapid easing phase. January looks more like a pause than a pivot as markets are pricing less than a one-in-four chance of another cut, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Among sectors, he is constructive on non-ferrous metals as a basket and believes they should do well over the next year.

Do you believe US Federal Reserve will make the final benchmark interest rate cut of its current easing cycle in January 2026, followed by a possibility—but not a confirmation—of another rate cut later in the year?

The Fed’s December move likely marks the end of its rapid easing phase. January looks more like a pause than a pivot as markets are pricing less than a one-in-four chance of another cut. The committee’s own projections point to just one reduction in 2026, and that’s conditional on inflation staying benign and growth softening further.

Our base case is a hold in January, with scope for a cut in March if data cooperates. Beyond that, the Fed will tread carefully; policy credibility matters more than speed. Investors should prepare for a slower, data-dependent path rather than a straight line to lower rates.

Are you confident that earnings growth is set to accelerate next year?

Yes, we remain confident that earnings growth is set to accelerate as we move into 2026. We expect corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

This improvement is being underpinned by a gradual pickup in economic activity, which should translate into healthier revenue growth for Nifty 500 companies. At the same time, a relatively benign and soft commodity cost environment is likely to support margin expansion. The combination of improving top-line growth and stable-to-improving margins should result in strong earnings growth, which, in turn, should provide support to market returns over the next year.

With consistent Fed funds rate cuts, expectations of strong earnings visibility, and the possibility of an India–US trade deal sooner rather than later, do you expect FII outflows to stop soon and 2026 to witness net inflows?

FII flows are influenced by multiple and often shifting factors. When we look at India’s positioning relative to other emerging markets, India continues to stand out as a clear bright spot.

The combination of relatively stronger economic growth, macro stability and political certainty, with a stable government at the helm, places India in a favourable position to attract capital flows that are directed towards emerging markets. These structural positives provide a strong foundation for investor confidence.

In addition, once the resolution of trade-related uncertainties plays out, they should help restore India’s competitiveness in export markets and bring greater stability to the currency. Taken together, these factors are likely to reinforce foreign investor confidence and improve the environment for capital inflows over the period ahead.

Do you see the market recording a rally of more than 10 percent even in 2026?

If you look at the track record, the Nifty has delivered positive returns in every calendar year for the last 10 years, which is quite rare and something very few equity markets globally have managed to achieve. That consistency itself speaks to the underlying strength of the Indian market.

As we move into 2026, with earnings growth expected to pick up, we believe the Nifty is well placed to continue delivering positive returns. Importantly, it is not just the headline index. Broader market performance over the last year or so has lagged the Nifty, and we expect a recovery there as well.

As earnings growth improves, uncertainties around trade-related issues reduce, and some of the geopolitical tensions ease, the overall environment should turn more supportive for equities.

Do you think the commercial vehicle segment within the auto space will make a strong comeback next year?

The commercial vehicle segment has not gone through a typical sharp downturn over the last few years. A recovery is clearly underway, and we believe the segment is already in the process of picking up momentum. Over the last few months, we have started to see early green shoots of recovery, both in key lead indicators and in commercial vehicle sales data.

Typically, commercial vehicles tend to act as an early indicator of an economic pickup. Since we expect the broader economy to improve, the commercial vehicle segment should benefit from that trend as well. While the upturn may be relatively shallow, we do expect a recovery to continue, with the last quarter of the current fiscal also shaping up to be supportive for the segment.

Do you see the rupee bottoming out soon?

Foreign portfolio outflows, a slow year for FDI coupled with tariff worries put some pressure on the Rupee. India’s fundamentals, meanwhile, stayed solid, growth held up, inflation was at all-time lows and the current account avoided stress.

It’s possible that next year we may see recovery. We expect a softer dollar, steadier trade post the trade deal, and a return of risk appetite in global portfolio flows. FDI prospects also look good for 2026. With imports slowing and the trade balance improving, the rupee has a stronger foundation for recovery.

Do you expect export-oriented companies to see strong earnings uplift due to rupee depreciation?

Yes, we do believe that export-oriented sectors such as Pharmaceuticals and IT could see an earnings uplift from the Rupee depreciation. Currency movement can provide a near-term tailwind and may result in a near term benefit for these sectors.

However, over the longer term, earnings performance will continue to be driven by the underlying fundamentals of the businesses rather than currency alone. Within this context, we remain constructive on the Pharma sector, where fundamentals are supportive, and we are overweight there. In contrast, the outlook for the IT sector is likely to remain more volatile, driven by policy actions in the US and the growth trajectory of the US and European economies.

Do you see strong opportunities in non-ferrous metals in 2026?

We have been bullish on metals throughout last year. Historically, every rate-cut cycle tends to be accompanied by an uptick in the commodity cycle, as lower rates and expectations around growth provide support to commodity prices. In that context, the recent set of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have already started to boost commodity prices, including non-ferrous metals.

A sustained upcycle in non-ferrous metals will continue to depend on the pace of economic activity in developed markets as well as in China. These two regions remain critical drivers for demand. We are therefore closely monitoring how these macro variables evolve.

Overall, we are constructive on non-ferrous metals as a basket and believe they should do well over the next year. However, the extent and durability of the upside will be influenced by how global economic conditions play out.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Nimesh Chandan bullish on earnings growth acceleration next year; double-digit profit growth seen in H2FY26

Earnings growth is set to accelerate as we move into 2026, said Nimesh Chandan, Chief Investment Officer at Bajaj Finserv Asset Management. He expects corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

According to him, the Fed’s December move likely marks the end of its rapid easing phase. January looks more like a pause than a pivot as markets are pricing less than a one-in-four chance of another cut, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Among sectors, he is constructive on non-ferrous metals as a basket and believes they should do well over the next year.

Do you believe US Federal Reserve will make the final benchmark interest rate cut of its current easing cycle in January 2026, followed by a possibility—but not a confirmation—of another rate cut later in the year?

The Fed’s December move likely marks the end of its rapid easing phase. January looks more like a pause than a pivot as markets are pricing less than a one-in-four chance of another cut. The committee’s own projections point to just one reduction in 2026, and that’s conditional on inflation staying benign and growth softening further.

Our base case is a hold in January, with scope for a cut in March if data cooperates. Beyond that, the Fed will tread carefully; policy credibility matters more than speed. Investors should prepare for a slower, data-dependent path rather than a straight line to lower rates.

Are you confident that earnings growth is set to accelerate next year?

Yes, we remain confident that earnings growth is set to accelerate as we move into 2026. We expect corporate profit growth to move closer to double-digit in the second half of FY26 and further accelerate into the mid-teens in FY27.

This improvement is being underpinned by a gradual pickup in economic activity, which should translate into healthier revenue growth for Nifty 500 companies. At the same time, a relatively benign and soft commodity cost environment is likely to support margin expansion. The combination of improving top-line growth and stable-to-improving margins should result in strong earnings growth, which, in turn, should provide support to market returns over the next year.

With consistent Fed funds rate cuts, expectations of strong earnings visibility, and the possibility of an India–US trade deal sooner rather than later, do you expect FII outflows to stop soon and 2026 to witness net inflows?

FII flows are influenced by multiple and often shifting factors. When we look at India’s positioning relative to other emerging markets, India continues to stand out as a clear bright spot.

The combination of relatively stronger economic growth, macro stability and political certainty, with a stable government at the helm, places India in a favourable position to attract capital flows that are directed towards emerging markets. These structural positives provide a strong foundation for investor confidence.

In addition, once the resolution of trade-related uncertainties plays out, they should help restore India’s competitiveness in export markets and bring greater stability to the currency. Taken together, these factors are likely to reinforce foreign investor confidence and improve the environment for capital inflows over the period ahead.

Do you see the market recording a rally of more than 10 percent even in 2026?

If you look at the track record, the Nifty has delivered positive returns in every calendar year for the last 10 years, which is quite rare and something very few equity markets globally have managed to achieve. That consistency itself speaks to the underlying strength of the Indian market.

As we move into 2026, with earnings growth expected to pick up, we believe the Nifty is well placed to continue delivering positive returns. Importantly, it is not just the headline index. Broader market performance over the last year or so has lagged the Nifty, and we expect a recovery there as well.

As earnings growth improves, uncertainties around trade-related issues reduce, and some of the geopolitical tensions ease, the overall environment should turn more supportive for equities.

Do you think the commercial vehicle segment within the auto space will make a strong comeback next year?

The commercial vehicle segment has not gone through a typical sharp downturn over the last few years. A recovery is clearly underway, and we believe the segment is already in the process of picking up momentum. Over the last few months, we have started to see early green shoots of recovery, both in key lead indicators and in commercial vehicle sales data.

Typically, commercial vehicles tend to act as an early indicator of an economic pickup. Since we expect the broader economy to improve, the commercial vehicle segment should benefit from that trend as well. While the upturn may be relatively shallow, we do expect a recovery to continue, with the last quarter of the current fiscal also shaping up to be supportive for the segment.

Do you see the rupee bottoming out soon?

Foreign portfolio outflows, a slow year for FDI coupled with tariff worries put some pressure on the Rupee. India’s fundamentals, meanwhile, stayed solid, growth held up, inflation was at all-time lows and the current account avoided stress.

It’s possible that next year we may see recovery. We expect a softer dollar, steadier trade post the trade deal, and a return of risk appetite in global portfolio flows. FDI prospects also look good for 2026. With imports slowing and the trade balance improving, the rupee has a stronger foundation for recovery.

Do you expect export-oriented companies to see strong earnings uplift due to rupee depreciation?

Yes, we do believe that export-oriented sectors such as Pharmaceuticals and IT could see an earnings uplift from the Rupee depreciation. Currency movement can provide a near-term tailwind and may result in a near term benefit for these sectors.

However, over the longer term, earnings performance will continue to be driven by the underlying fundamentals of the businesses rather than currency alone. Within this context, we remain constructive on the Pharma sector, where fundamentals are supportive, and we are overweight there. In contrast, the outlook for the IT sector is likely to remain more volatile, driven by policy actions in the US and the growth trajectory of the US and European economies.

Do you see strong opportunities in non-ferrous metals in 2026?

We have been bullish on metals throughout last year. Historically, every rate-cut cycle tends to be accompanied by an uptick in the commodity cycle, as lower rates and expectations around growth provide support to commodity prices. In that context, the recent set of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have already started to boost commodity prices, including non-ferrous metals.

A sustained upcycle in non-ferrous metals will continue to depend on the pace of economic activity in developed markets as well as in China. These two regions remain critical drivers for demand. We are therefore closely monitoring how these macro variables evolve.

Overall, we are constructive on non-ferrous metals as a basket and believe they should do well over the next year. However, the extent and durability of the upside will be influenced by how global economic conditions play out.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex and Nifty likely to open flat with a positive bias on December 29, Asian equities and currencies traded higher; US markets ended nearly unchanged, FIIs sold equities worth Rs 317 crore; DIIs bought Rs 1772 crore on December 26

* Sensex and Nifty likely to open flat with a positive bias on December 29
* Asian equities and currencies traded higher; US markets ended nearly unchanged
* FIIs sold equities worth Rs 317 crore; DIIs bought Rs 1772 crore on December 26

Sensex and Nifty are expected to open flat with a positive bias on December 29, following mixed global cues. Asian shares rose, US markets were flat, oil prices climbed, gold fell, and FIIs sold while DIIs bought equities on December 26.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-67

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, are likely to open on a flat with positive bias on December 29, with cues coming from GIFT Nifty, which was trading flat at around 26,099.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

Indian equity indices ended lower for the second consecutive session on December 26 with Nifty below 26100.

The Sensex was down 367.25 points or 0.43 percent at 85,041.45, and the Nifty was down 99.80 points or 0.38 percent at 26,042.30.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Flat)

The GIFT Nifty is trading flat at around 26,099, indicating a flat to positive start for the day.

Asian Equities (Up)

Asian stocks were at six-week highs on Monday, while the dollar hovered near its lowest in almost three months on expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year, which have also sparked a fierce rally in precious metals.



US Equities (Flat)

Wall Street ended a light-volume post-Christmas session nearly unchanged on Friday, with few catalysts to fuel much conviction one way or the other.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed nominally lower, snapping a five-session rally, but logged weekly gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20.19 points, or 0.04%, to 48,710.97, the S&amp;amp;P 500 lost 2.11 points, or 0.03%, to 6,929.94 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 20.21 points, or 0.09%, to 23,593.10.



US Bond Yield (Flat)

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.12%, while 2-year Treasuries was unchanged at 3.48 percent.



Dollar Index (Down)

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.1% to 97.98.



Asian Currencies (Up)

Asian currencies were trading mostly higher in the the early Monday trade with South Korean Won leading the gainers, followed by Japanese Yen, Philippines Peso, Singapore Dollar



Crude (Up)

Oil prices were trading higher in the early trade on Monday.



Gold (Down)

Silver rallied 6%, pushing beyond $80 an ounce for the first time, before reversing the gains and
falling more than 2%. Gold and platinum also jumped to records on Friday before
bullion headed lower on Monday.



Fund Flow Action

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 317 crore on December 26, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities of Rs 1772 crore, on same day.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

The monthly F&O expiry-led volatility can't be ruled out in initial part of the next week.

shorts/business/dalal-street-week-ahead-auto-sales-fomc-minutes-manufacturing-pmi-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

The market snapped three-week losing streak, closing higher for the truncated week ended December 26. Stronger domestic demand, a favourable liquidity outlook, and hope for continuation of Fed policy easing in 2026 supported market sentiment, however, the market could not sustain all its Santa rally gains as there was pressure at higher levels due to limited progress in US–India trade talks and consistent FII outflow.

Meanwhile, gold advanced on safe-haven demand, with futures rising 3.77 percent during the week to end at record closing high of $4,552.7 an ounce while the Brent crude oil futures traded near the lower Bollinger bands, ending 0.28 percent higher at $60.64 a barrel, though experts feel US steps to tighten pressure on Venezuelan oil shipments could exert upward pressure in the near term.

The domestic equity markets are expected to be cautious amid rangebound trading with focus on auto sales, FOMC minutes and manufacturing PMI numbers. The monthly F&amp;O expiry-led volatility can't be ruled out in initial part of the week, experts said.

The Nifty 50 rose 76 points (0.3 percent) for the week to 26,042, and the BSE Sensex gained 112 points (0.13 percent) to 85,041, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index ended flat and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index rallied 1.75 percent.

"Looking ahead, market sentiment is likely to stay cautious as investors brace for the upcoming earnings season while remaining attuned to global developments and currency movements," Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said.

According to him, key drivers will include progress in India–US trade talks, rupee stability, FII trends, and movements in commodity prices. "With year-end trading volumes expected to remain subdued, price action could be largely contained," he said.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services also expects Indian equities to trade in a narrow range amid lack of triggers, tracking the macro indicators and institutional flows.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for next week:

FOMC Minutes

The market participants will focus on the minutes of US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting held on December 9-10. The central bank slashed the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.5-3.75 percent range in the said meeting, after the 25-bp reduction each in September and October. Globally, the markets of all asset classes will look for cues with respect to further rate cut path, jobs data, inflation and economic outlook from the minutes.

Global Economic Data

The focus will also be on the US weekly jobs data, and monthly pending home sales numbers.

Apart from this, manufacturing PMI data from the US, Europe, China and other nations will also be watched next week.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13745678 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251228164020_Image228122025.jpg" alt="Image228122025" width="972" height="481" />

New Fed Chair Announcement

Globally, in the coming weeks, the market will also keep an eye on the appointment of new US Federal Reserve Chair as US President Donald Trump already said he would be declaring the name of new successor to Powell in early 2026. The decision is expected to shape the monetary policy outlook including whether the new chair will continue rate cut path or not.

The term of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell will end in May.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the industrial and manufacturing production numbers for November month will be released on December 29, followed by the RBI's market borrowing auctions on December 30.

This follows the fiscal deficit for November and external debt data for September 2025 quarter which scheduled on December 31.

On the final working day of the week i.e. January 2, the focus will be on the manufacturing PMI data for December month, bank loan &amp; deposit growth for fortnight ended December 12, and foreign exchange reserves for week ended December 26.

The preliminary estimates indicated that the manufacturing PMI dropped to 55.7 in December, compared to 56.6 in November.

Auto Sales

Auto stocks - Tata Motor, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, Eicher Motors, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Hyundai Motor India, TVS Motor, Escorts etc - will also be in focus as automobile companies will release their December sales volume numbers in later part of next week.

According to analysts, the growth across segments in December could be in double-digit compared to corresponding month last year. "Sales volumes are likely to be driven by continued positive customer sentiments spurred by better affordability (courtesy GST cuts), new products, interest rate cuts and adequate finance availability despite some pressure on rural sentiments due to a drop in retail crop prices," Nuvama Institutional Equities said.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php" target="_blank">FII Flow</a>

The focus will also be on the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) mood, though the activity may be low due to new year holiday week with many countries globally celebrating New Year's Day as a public holiday. FIIs were net sellers for the latest week to the tune of Rs 4,291 crore, taking their total net selling to over Rs 24,000 crore in current month, higher than Rs 17,500 crore selling in previous month.

However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to compensate the FII outflow by wide margin even in the latest week as they net bought more than Rs 12,000 crore worth shares during the week, taking the total net purchases to over Rs 64,000 crore for December, as per provisional data.

Improvement in fundamentals are likely to attract net FII inflows in 2026. Robust GDP growth and prospects of improvement in corporate earnings in 2026 augur well for positive FII flows in 2026, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist of Geojit Investments.

The sustained selling by FIIs have contributed significantly to the sharp depreciation in rupee which depreciated 0.22 percent for the last week to 89.75 against the US dollar, 0.46 percent for current month, and 4.93 percent for 2025. In previous week, it touched a record low of 91.08.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index remained below 100 mark for the fifth consecutive week, falling 0.67 percent for the latest week to 98.05 and trading below all key moving averages and even the midline of Bollinger bands. It was pressured by market speculation that President Trump may favour appointing a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair. This outlook, viewed as bearish for the greenback.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO Action</a>

The activity at the IPO desk will be muted next week with only one IPO getting launched which is from the SME segment. Gurugram-based diagnostic chain Modern Diagnostic &amp; Research Centre will open its Rs 37 crore Initial Public offering (IPO) on December 31 with price band of Rs 85-90 per share, while E to E Transportation Infrastructure, which provides system integration and engineering solutions for the railway sector, will close its Rs 84-crore public issue on January 2.

Meanwhile, total 11 new companies will be available for trading on the bourses next week with Gujarat Kidney &amp; Super Speciality from the mainboard segment listing on December 30.

In the SME segment, Dachepalli Publishers, Shyam Dhani Industries, Sundrex Oil Company, and EPW India will also list on December 30, while the trading in Dhara Rail Projects, Admach Systems, Nanta Tech, Bai Kakaji Polymers, and Apollo Techno Industries shares will commence on December 31. E to E Transportation Infrastructure will also commence trading next week on January 2.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 has formed a Gravestone Doji–like pattern on the weekly charts, which is generally considered a bearish reversal pattern; however, the movement in the following week will be watched for confirmation. On the levels front, 26,200–26,250 is expected to be a crucial hurdle zone for the index, as sustaining above it could open the door for the 26,350–26,500 zone. However, falling decisively below the 26,000–25,950 zone could provide support to bears for a downward move toward 25,700, experts said. The momentum and technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, with confirmation needed from upcoming price action.

F&amp;O Cues

The monthly options data also indicated that the Nifty 50 may trade in the 25,900-26,300 range in the short term.

The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,200 strike, followed by the 26,100 and 26,300 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 26,100, 26,050 and 26,200 strikes. On the Put side, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,800 and 25,900 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 26,050, 25,950 and 25,900 strikes.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, ended at the record closing low of 9.15, down 3.91 percent for the week, giving comfort for bulls and also signalling the possibility of sharp market move.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place in the coming week:

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13745679 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/12/20251228164139_Image128122025.jpg" alt="Image128122025" width="960" height="231" />

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street week ahead: Auto sales, FOMC minutes, manufacturing PMI among 10 key factors to watch

The market snapped three-week losing streak, closing higher for the truncated week ended December 26. Stronger domestic demand, a favourable liquidity outlook, and hope for continuation of Fed policy easing in 2026 supported market sentiment, however, the market could not sustain all its Santa rally gains as there was pressure at higher levels due to limited progress in US–India trade talks and consistent FII outflow.

Meanwhile, gold advanced on safe-haven demand, with futures rising 3.77 percent during the week to end at record closing high of $4,552.7 an ounce while the Brent crude oil futures traded near the lower Bollinger bands, ending 0.28 percent higher at $60.64 a barrel, though experts feel US steps to tighten pressure on Venezuelan oil shipments could exert upward pressure in the near term.

The domestic equity markets are expected to be cautious amid rangebound trading with focus on auto sales, FOMC minutes and manufacturing PMI numbers. The monthly F&amp;amp;O expiry-led volatility can't be ruled out in initial part of the week, experts said.

The Nifty 50 rose 76 points (0.3 percent) for the week to 26,042, and the BSE Sensex gained 112 points (0.13 percent) to 85,041, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index ended flat and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index rallied 1.75 percent.

&quot;Looking ahead, market sentiment is likely to stay cautious as investors brace for the upcoming earnings season while remaining attuned to global developments and currency movements,&quot; Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments said.

According to him, key drivers will include progress in India–US trade talks, rupee stability, FII trends, and movements in commodity prices. &quot;With year-end trading volumes expected to remain subdued, price action could be largely contained,&quot; he said.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services also expects Indian equities to trade in a narrow range amid lack of triggers, tracking the macro indicators and institutional flows.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for next week:

FOMC Minutes

The market participants will focus on the minutes of US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting held on December 9-10. The central bank slashed the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.5-3.75 percent range in the said meeting, after the 25-bp reduction each in September and October. Globally, the markets of all asset classes will look for cues with respect to further rate cut path, jobs data, inflation and economic outlook from the minutes.

Global Economic Data

The focus will also be on the US weekly jobs data, and monthly pending home sales numbers.

Apart from this, manufacturing PMI data from the US, Europe, China and other nations will also be watched next week.



New Fed Chair Announcement

Globally, in the coming weeks, the market will also keep an eye on the appointment of new US Federal Reserve Chair as US President Donald Trump already said he would be declaring the name of new successor to Powell in early 2026. The decision is expected to shape the monetary policy outlook including whether the new chair will continue rate cut path or not.

The term of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell will end in May.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the industrial and manufacturing production numbers for November month will be released on December 29, followed by the RBI's market borrowing auctions on December 30.

This follows the fiscal deficit for November and external debt data for September 2025 quarter which scheduled on December 31.

On the final working day of the week i.e. January 2, the focus will be on the manufacturing PMI data for December month, bank loan &amp;amp; deposit growth for fortnight ended December 12, and foreign exchange reserves for week ended December 26.

The preliminary estimates indicated that the manufacturing PMI dropped to 55.7 in December, compared to 56.6 in November.

Auto Sales

Auto stocks - Tata Motor, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle, Mahindra &amp;amp; Mahindra, Eicher Motors, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, Hyundai Motor India, TVS Motor, Escorts etc - will also be in focus as automobile companies will release their December sales volume numbers in later part of next week.

According to analysts, the growth across segments in December could be in double-digit compared to corresponding month last year. &quot;Sales volumes are likely to be driven by continued positive customer sentiments spurred by better affordability (courtesy GST cuts), new products, interest rate cuts and adequate finance availability despite some pressure on rural sentiments due to a drop in retail crop prices,&quot; Nuvama Institutional Equities said.

FII Flow

The focus will also be on the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) mood, though the activity may be low due to new year holiday week with many countries globally celebrating New Year's Day as a public holiday. FIIs were net sellers for the latest week to the tune of Rs 4,291 crore, taking their total net selling to over Rs 24,000 crore in current month, higher than Rs 17,500 crore selling in previous month.

However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to compensate the FII outflow by wide margin even in the latest week as they net bought more than Rs 12,000 crore worth shares during the week, taking the total net purchases to over Rs 64,000 crore for December, as per provisional data.

Improvement in fundamentals are likely to attract net FII inflows in 2026. Robust GDP growth and prospects of improvement in corporate earnings in 2026 augur well for positive FII flows in 2026, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist of Geojit Investments.

The sustained selling by FIIs have contributed significantly to the sharp depreciation in rupee which depreciated 0.22 percent for the last week to 89.75 against the US dollar, 0.46 percent for current month, and 4.93 percent for 2025. In previous week, it touched a record low of 91.08.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index remained below 100 mark for the fifth consecutive week, falling 0.67 percent for the latest week to 98.05 and trading below all key moving averages and even the midline of Bollinger bands. It was pressured by market speculation that President Trump may favour appointing a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair. This outlook, viewed as bearish for the greenback.

IPO Action

The activity at the IPO desk will be muted next week with only one IPO getting launched which is from the SME segment. Gurugram-based diagnostic chain Modern Diagnostic &amp;amp; Research Centre will open its Rs 37 crore Initial Public offering (IPO) on December 31 with price band of Rs 85-90 per share, while E to E Transportation Infrastructure, which provides system integration and engineering solutions for the railway sector, will close its Rs 84-crore public issue on January 2.

Meanwhile, total 11 new companies will be available for trading on the bourses next week with Gujarat Kidney &amp;amp; Super Speciality from the mainboard segment listing on December 30.

In the SME segment, Dachepalli Publishers, Shyam Dhani Industries, Sundrex Oil Company, and EPW India will also list on December 30, while the trading in Dhara Rail Projects, Admach Systems, Nanta Tech, Bai Kakaji Polymers, and Apollo Techno Industries shares will commence on December 31. E to E Transportation Infrastructure will also commence trading next week on January 2.

Technical View

Technically, the Nifty 50 has formed a Gravestone Doji–like pattern on the weekly charts, which is generally considered a bearish reversal pattern; however, the movement in the following week will be watched for confirmation. On the levels front, 26,200–26,250 is expected to be a crucial hurdle zone for the index, as sustaining above it could open the door for the 26,350–26,500 zone. However, falling decisively below the 26,000–25,950 zone could provide support to bears for a downward move toward 25,700, experts said. The momentum and technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, with confirmation needed from upcoming price action.

F&amp;amp;O Cues

The monthly options data also indicated that the Nifty 50 may trade in the 25,900-26,300 range in the short term.

The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,200 strike, followed by the 26,100 and 26,300 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 26,100, 26,050 and 26,200 strikes. On the Put side, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,800 and 25,900 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 26,050, 25,950 and 25,900 strikes.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, ended at the record closing low of 9.15, down 3.91 percent for the week, giving comfort for bulls and also signalling the possibility of sharp market move.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place in the coming week:



Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A 2,000-year-old Buddhist site was discovered in Zehanpora, Baramulla, J&K., Excavation revealed stupas and monastic buildings from the Kushan period., PM Modi called the find a proud moment for India's cultural heritage.

* A 2,000-year-old Buddhist site was discovered in Zehanpora, Baramulla, J&K.
* Excavation revealed stupas and monastic buildings from the Kushan period.
* PM Modi called the find a proud moment for India's cultural heritage.

A 2,000-year-old Buddhist site was discovered in Zehanpora, Baramulla, Jammu and Kashmir, revealing stupas and monastic structures from the Kushan period. PM Modi called it a proud moment, highlighting Kashmir’s deep Buddhist heritage and ancient legacy.

shorts/india/archaeologists-uncover-2000-year-old-buddhist-site-in-kashmir-pm-modi-calls-it-proud-moment

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Hindalco, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, NTPC were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer.

Stock Market LIVE Updates: Nifty at 26,100, Sensex flat; Ceigall India up 4%, Coforge down

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Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: Hindalco, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, NTPC were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer.

null out of 2 years BSE SENSEX NEXT 30 has given negative returns in December.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	40,182.46	40,310.26	40,402.24	40,090.48	39,962.68	39,870.70	39,742.90
Fibonacci	40,174.44	40,226.31	40,310.26	40,090.48	40,006.53	39,954.66	39,870.70
Camarilla	40,074.80	40,094.94	40,115.09	40,090.48	40,034.50	40,014.36	39,994.21

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - BSE SENSEX NEXT 30

Net Contribution

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