BSE SENSEX NEXT 30

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) will remain closed on January 26 on account of Republic Day.

Trading in equities, equity derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives, and interest rate derivatives will remain shut for the day on both the BSE and the NSE.

The commodity derivatives segment will also remain closed for the day.

Trading on the NSE and the BSE will resume on January 27 (Tuesday).

The market ended lower in a volatile session on January 23, as selling pressure was seen across sectors.

At close, the Sensex was down 769.67 points or 0.94 percent at 81,537.70, and the Nifty was down 241.25 points or 0.95 percent at 25,048.65.

The broader market underperformed the benchmarks, with the BSE midcap index falling 1.5 percent and the smallcap index down over 2 percent.

Biggest Nifty losers were Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Eternal, Interglobe Aviation, Cipla, while gainers included Dr Reddy's Labs, Tech Mahindra, ONGC, Hindalco, HUL.

All the sectoral indices ended in the red with capital goods, power, realty, PSU Bank, and media down 2-3%.

"After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness in the early part of the session. The weakness intensified in the mid to later part, and Nifty finally closed at the lows," said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

"A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, which indicates a formation of a lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative, and one may expect Nifty to slide below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched is around 24,600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels," he added.

On Friday, the Indian rupee ended at a record low at 91.96 per dollar versus Thursday's close of 91.62.

"The Indian rupee succumbed to a record low, bucking under the weight of voracious dollar demand from importers and corporates ahead of the long weekend and the upcoming Union Budget," said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

"This fragility intensified as domestic equities faced a fresh bout of liquidation, erasing Thursday’s tentative recovery."

"The outlook for spot USDINR remains resolutely bullish; we anticipate the pair may eclipse the psychological 92 threshold while finding the support at 91.10," he said.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Stock market holiday today: BSE, NSE to remain shut for Republic Day

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) will remain closed on January 26 on account of Republic Day.

Trading in equities, equity derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLBs), currency derivatives, and interest rate derivatives will remain shut for the day on both the BSE and the NSE.

The commodity derivatives segment will also remain closed for the day.

Trading on the NSE and the BSE will resume on January 27 (Tuesday).

The market ended lower in a volatile session on January 23, as selling pressure was seen across sectors.

At close, the Sensex was down 769.67 points or 0.94 percent at 81,537.70, and the Nifty was down 241.25 points or 0.95 percent at 25,048.65.

The broader market underperformed the benchmarks, with the BSE midcap index falling 1.5 percent and the smallcap index down over 2 percent.

Biggest Nifty losers were Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Eternal, Interglobe Aviation, Cipla, while gainers included Dr Reddy's Labs, Tech Mahindra, ONGC, Hindalco, HUL.

All the sectoral indices ended in the red with capital goods, power, realty, PSU Bank, and media down 2-3%.

&quot;After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness in the early part of the session. The weakness intensified in the mid to later part, and Nifty finally closed at the lows,&quot; said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

&quot;A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, which indicates a formation of a lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative, and one may expect Nifty to slide below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched is around 24,600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels,&quot; he added.

On Friday, the Indian rupee ended at a record low at 91.96 per dollar versus Thursday's close of 91.62.

&quot;The Indian rupee succumbed to a record low, bucking under the weight of voracious dollar demand from importers and corporates ahead of the long weekend and the upcoming Union Budget,&quot; said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.

&quot;This fragility intensified as domestic equities faced a fresh bout of liquidation, erasing Thursday’s tentative recovery.&quot;

&quot;The outlook for spot USDINR remains resolutely bullish; we anticipate the pair may eclipse the psychological 92 threshold while finding the support at 91.10,&quot; he said.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one, Market correction sets stage for multi-year bull run if Budget backs Rs 11 trillion infra spend and middle-class consumption, Expect spotlight to be on consumer discretionary & retail, infra & industrials, and financials in budget

* Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one
* Market correction sets stage for multi-year bull run if Budget backs Rs 11 trillion infra spend and middle-class consumption
* Expect spotlight to be on consumer discretionary & retail, infra & industrials, and financials in budget

shorts/business/daily-voice-market-correction-may-spark-multi-year-bull-run-if-budget-boosts-infra-and-consumption-himani-shah

* Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one
* Market correction sets stage for multi-year bull run if Budget backs Rs 11 trillion infra spend and middle-class consumption
* Expect spotlight to be on consumer discretionary & retail, infra & industrials, and financials in budget

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one, according to Himani Shah, the Co-Fund Manager at Alchemy Capital Management.

If the government can demonstrate a roadmap that protects its Rs 11 trillion infrastructure commitment while simultaneously providing the middle class with the disposable income to drive consumption, we believe the current market correction will pave the way for a multi-year bull run, she said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, she expects the spotlight to be on three sectors - consumer discretionary and retail, infrastructure and industrials, and financials.

Do you think domestic fundamentals will provide strong support to Indian equities despite negative global cues such as tariff concerns and geopolitical issues, and help push the market higher in 2026 once the global-cues-driven uncertainty settles?

From a fundamental perspective, the ‘India Story’ remains remarkably resilient.

While global headlines are dominated by geopolitical volatility and trade concerns, our domestic indicators are decoupled in several key areas. We are witnessing a structural revival in manufacturing, with recent data indicating a 12-month high and an 8% growth rate.

Furthermore, the strategic cuts in Income Tax and GST have acted as a significant liquidity injection for the middle class, successfully driving consumer spending. We believe that once the global ‘noise’ settles, the market will re-rate based on these robust internal growth drivers, in our view.

Do you expect the market to deliver mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next 12 months, despite the potential for underperformance in the near term?

From a strategic standpoint, we do anticipate that the market may deliver mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next 12 months. While we expect a period of near-term underperformance as the market digests global volatility and cues-driven uncertainty, the fundamental 'real economy' indicators remain highly encouraging.

Our conviction is supported by high-frequency data, specifically the resurgence in auto sales (up 17-23%), retail momentum, and credit growth in the early teens. This suggests that recent tax reforms are effectively stimulating domestic demand. However, the 'flattish' GST collection, growing at only 6% in December 2025, remains the primary variable we are monitoring.

Should we see an uptick in GST collections, a mid-to-high single-digit index return would represent a conservative and achievable floor. Crucially, this growth could be high-quality, underpinned by genuine earnings expansion as valuations have already corrected meaningfully.

Do you expect continued momentum in consumer discretionary stocks and relatively less focus on capital expenditure in the Union Budget 2026?

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, the Indian economy finds itself at a delicate inflection point. While we have spent the last few years aggressively building the ‘hard’ infrastructure of the nation, the current market narrative reflects a tug-of-war between sustaining high-multiplier capital expenditure (capex) and reviving a stagnant consumption base.

India must achieve a ‘Golden Mean’ between fiscal prudence and growth-focused stimulus.

In an era of fragmenting global trade and rising geopolitical tensions, India cannot afford to take its foot off the pedal on capex. With nations increasingly looking inward and protectionism on the rise, in our view, the Budget must prioritise self-sufficiency. We are seeing a distinct global appetite for India to serve as a manufacturing alternative, driven by our vast, young labour force.

However, to truly capture the ‘China+1’ opportunity, the government must continue funding high-impact infrastructure such as digital grids, EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services) and renewable energy ecosystems. Maintaining the Rs 11 trillion capex momentum is no longer just an economic goal; it is a strategic necessity to ensure that our young workforce is backed by world-class industrial efficiency.

We remain bullish on capital goods and industrials as long as the government maintains its infrastructure commitment. Simultaneously, we are watching consumer discretionary and capital market plays.

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one. If the government can demonstrate a roadmap that protects its Rs 11 trillion infrastructure commitment while simultaneously providing the middle class with the disposable income to drive consumption, we believe the current market correction will pave the way for a multi-year bull run.

Do you rule out the possibility of earnings downgrades from Q4 FY26 onward?

We cannot entirely rule out earnings volatility. While Q3FY26 results so far have shown substantial growth and revival, the sustainability of this trend into Q4FY26 and beyond is contingent on the government's ability to maintain spending levels. If the government is forced to pull back on its Rs 11 trillion capex plan due to fiscal constraints, we may see a slight cooling in the industrial and infrastructure-linked earnings. We remain cautiously optimistic and are watching the Q4FY26 run rate closely.

Do you agree that employment growth is likely to become a major global challenge in the context of increasing AI adoption?

We believe that increasing AI adoption poses a significant structural challenge to global employment growth. In our view, this shift is primarily a workforce ‘displacement’ rather than a total pause in hiring. We are witnessing a historical inversion where white-collar, cognitive roles face deflationary pressures from automation, while the ‘real economy’ —manufacturing, specialised trades, and physical infrastructure—remains labour-hungry and resilient.

From an investment standpoint, this creates a clear dichotomy: we focus on companies that utilise AI to expand operating margins without linearly increasing headcount, as this boosts Earnings Per Share (EPS). We stay cautious on mass-market consumption themes that rely heavily on broad-based white-collar wage growth. Accordingly, our strategy pivots toward ‘physical world’ sectors such as industrials and capital goods, where human expertise remains irreplaceable. We remain underweight on traditional services that are vulnerable to AI-driven commoditisation.

Which three sectors do you believe are likely to be in the limelight in the Union Budget?

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, we expect the spotlight to be on:
1. Consumer Discretionary and Retail: To see if the government provides further GST rationalisation to sustain the current growth in lifestyle segments.
2. Infrastructure and Industrials: Focus will be on whether the government stays the course on its massive capex targets or pivots toward fiscal consolidation.
3. Financials: Any budgetary measures regarding liquidity, banking reforms or capital market reforms may be a major catalyst for the Financials pack.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice | Market correction may spark multi-year bull run if Budget boosts infra and consumption: Himani Shah

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one, according to Himani Shah, the Co-Fund Manager at Alchemy Capital Management.

If the government can demonstrate a roadmap that protects its Rs 11 trillion infrastructure commitment while simultaneously providing the middle class with the disposable income to drive consumption, we believe the current market correction will pave the way for a multi-year bull run, she said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, she expects the spotlight to be on three sectors - consumer discretionary and retail, infrastructure and industrials, and financials.

Do you think domestic fundamentals will provide strong support to Indian equities despite negative global cues such as tariff concerns and geopolitical issues, and help push the market higher in 2026 once the global-cues-driven uncertainty settles?

From a fundamental perspective, the ‘India Story’ remains remarkably resilient.

While global headlines are dominated by geopolitical volatility and trade concerns, our domestic indicators are decoupled in several key areas. We are witnessing a structural revival in manufacturing, with recent data indicating a 12-month high and an 8% growth rate.

Furthermore, the strategic cuts in Income Tax and GST have acted as a significant liquidity injection for the middle class, successfully driving consumer spending. We believe that once the global ‘noise’ settles, the market will re-rate based on these robust internal growth drivers, in our view.

Do you expect the market to deliver mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next 12 months, despite the potential for underperformance in the near term?

From a strategic standpoint, we do anticipate that the market may deliver mid-to-high single-digit growth over the next 12 months. While we expect a period of near-term underperformance as the market digests global volatility and cues-driven uncertainty, the fundamental 'real economy' indicators remain highly encouraging.

Our conviction is supported by high-frequency data, specifically the resurgence in auto sales (up 17-23%), retail momentum, and credit growth in the early teens. This suggests that recent tax reforms are effectively stimulating domestic demand. However, the 'flattish' GST collection, growing at only 6% in December 2025, remains the primary variable we are monitoring.

Should we see an uptick in GST collections, a mid-to-high single-digit index return would represent a conservative and achievable floor. Crucially, this growth could be high-quality, underpinned by genuine earnings expansion as valuations have already corrected meaningfully.

Do you expect continued momentum in consumer discretionary stocks and relatively less focus on capital expenditure in the Union Budget 2026?

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, the Indian economy finds itself at a delicate inflection point. While we have spent the last few years aggressively building the ‘hard’ infrastructure of the nation, the current market narrative reflects a tug-of-war between sustaining high-multiplier capital expenditure (capex) and reviving a stagnant consumption base.

India must achieve a ‘Golden Mean’ between fiscal prudence and growth-focused stimulus.

In an era of fragmenting global trade and rising geopolitical tensions, India cannot afford to take its foot off the pedal on capex. With nations increasingly looking inward and protectionism on the rise, in our view, the Budget must prioritise self-sufficiency. We are seeing a distinct global appetite for India to serve as a manufacturing alternative, driven by our vast, young labour force.

However, to truly capture the ‘China+1’ opportunity, the government must continue funding high-impact infrastructure such as digital grids, EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services) and renewable energy ecosystems. Maintaining the Rs 11 trillion capex momentum is no longer just an economic goal; it is a strategic necessity to ensure that our young workforce is backed by world-class industrial efficiency.

We remain bullish on capital goods and industrials as long as the government maintains its infrastructure commitment. Simultaneously, we are watching consumer discretionary and capital market plays.

Markets are not looking for a ‘populist’ budget, but a ‘pragmatic’ one. If the government can demonstrate a roadmap that protects its Rs 11 trillion infrastructure commitment while simultaneously providing the middle class with the disposable income to drive consumption, we believe the current market correction will pave the way for a multi-year bull run.

Do you rule out the possibility of earnings downgrades from Q4 FY26 onward?

We cannot entirely rule out earnings volatility. While Q3FY26 results so far have shown substantial growth and revival, the sustainability of this trend into Q4FY26 and beyond is contingent on the government's ability to maintain spending levels. If the government is forced to pull back on its Rs 11 trillion capex plan due to fiscal constraints, we may see a slight cooling in the industrial and infrastructure-linked earnings. We remain cautiously optimistic and are watching the Q4FY26 run rate closely.

Do you agree that employment growth is likely to become a major global challenge in the context of increasing AI adoption?

We believe that increasing AI adoption poses a significant structural challenge to global employment growth. In our view, this shift is primarily a workforce ‘displacement’ rather than a total pause in hiring. We are witnessing a historical inversion where white-collar, cognitive roles face deflationary pressures from automation, while the ‘real economy’ —manufacturing, specialised trades, and physical infrastructure—remains labour-hungry and resilient.

From an investment standpoint, this creates a clear dichotomy: we focus on companies that utilise AI to expand operating margins without linearly increasing headcount, as this boosts Earnings Per Share (EPS). We stay cautious on mass-market consumption themes that rely heavily on broad-based white-collar wage growth. Accordingly, our strategy pivots toward ‘physical world’ sectors such as industrials and capital goods, where human expertise remains irreplaceable. We remain underweight on traditional services that are vulnerable to AI-driven commoditisation.

Which three sectors do you believe are likely to be in the limelight in the Union Budget?

As we approach the Union Budget 2026, we expect the spotlight to be on:
1. Consumer Discretionary and Retail: To see if the government provides further GST rationalisation to sustain the current growth in lifestyle segments.
2. Infrastructure and Industrials: Focus will be on whether the government stays the course on its massive capex targets or pivots toward fiscal consolidation.
3. Financials: Any budgetary measures regarding liquidity, banking reforms or capital market reforms may be a major catalyst for the Financials pack.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Cautious market expected to be volatile this week with focus majorly on Union Budget, Fed interest rate decision, Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases and further corporate earnings will also be watched this week

* Cautious market expected to be volatile this week with focus majorly on Union Budget, Fed interest rate decision
* Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases and further corporate earnings will also be watched this week

shorts/business/dalal-street-this-week-union-budget-fomc-meet-q3-earnings-auto-sales-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

* Cautious market expected to be volatile this week with focus majorly on Union Budget, Fed interest rate decision
* Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases and further corporate earnings will also be watched this week

The market caught in a bear trap and plunged 2.5 percent in the last week ended January 23, pressured by renewed global trade tensions, geopolitical dynamics, persistent FII outflow, and uneven Q3 earnings.

Fresh US tariff threats against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets, but later, Donald Trump stepped back from immediate tariff action, which eased concerns of a US-EU trade war, but their relations remained strained.

The Indian rupee also hit a record low of 91.97 against the US dollar.

In the current trading week starting from January 27 till February 1 (except Saturday holiday), the cautious market is expected to be volatile with a major focus on the Union Budget and the Fed interest rate decision. Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases, and further corporate earnings will also be watched.

The BSE Sensex plummeted 2,033 points (2.43 percent) to close at 81,538, and the Nifty 50 fell 646 points (2.51 percent - the biggest weekly fall since September 2025) to 25,049, while the broader markets hit hard with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices crashing 4.55 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, in the current week, investors will closely track guidance from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows.

Sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand, he said.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said overall, markets would continue to track developments around global trade negotiations and geopolitical dynamics, while stock-specific action is expected to remain driven by ongoing Q3 earnings announcements.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/budget/" target="_blank">Union Budget</a>

The market participants will keenly watch the Union Budget 2026 - the major domestic factor - in the current week. The Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will announce the detailed estimated revenue and expenditures for the new financial year 2026-27 on February 1.

Most economists and experts expect the government to maintain continuity and increase capital expenditure for the new fiscal by 10-15 percent over the previous fiscal year, particularly as private sector investment has remained muted in recent months. Further, the fiscal discipline remains a key priority with experts expecting the fiscal deficit to be revised downward to 4.2-4.3 percent of GDP for FY27, against 4.4 percent for FY26, limiting the room for an aggressive and across-the-board capex expansion.

As a result, the budget is likely to adopt a more selective approach, prioritising sectors with higher multiplier effects and strategic relevance, experts said. Railways, defence manufacturing, renewables, AI-led infrastructure, and data centres are expected to remain in focus, ensuring continuity in asset creation without straining public finances.

Performance-linked incentive (PLI) schemes are also expected to be continued and expanded to support electronics, including semiconductors, mobiles, display units, and the manufacturing of clean-tech goods such as EVs, battery storage systems, renewables, and green hydrogen electrolysers.

Experts also expect more details on the National Manufacturing Mission, which was conceptualized in the last budget, and some initiatives for labour-intensive tariff-hit sectors and industries, including textiles, leather, toy manufacturing, among others, as well as for critical rare-earth minerals.

Budget is also likely to focus meaningfully on targeted consumption support, with measures like further income tax relief, higher standard deductions, increased rural and agricultural spending, employment generation schemes, skilling initiatives, and focused welfare programmes.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/earnings/" target="_blank">Corporate Earnings</a>

The December quarter earnings season will be in full swing as nearly 500 companies are set to release their quarterly results in the current week. The list includes the prominent Nifty 50 names like Larsen &amp; Toubro, Maruti Suzuki India, ITC, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Consumer Products, SBI Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, Nestle India, NTPC, Power Grid Corporation of India, Bharat Electronics, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

Apart from Nifty 50 names, several other key names like Tata Motors, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, One 97 Communications Paytm, Swiggy, Meesho, Vodafone Idea, Marico, Vishal Mega Mart, WeWork India Management, ACC, CSB Bank, Gland Pharma, Lodha Developers, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra Financial Services, National Securities Depository, Pine Labs, SBI Cards and Payment Services, TVS Motor Company, Adani Power, Blue Star, Colgate Palmolive, Dabur India, Indian Energy Exchange, Manappuram Finance, Vedanta, Voltas, Ambuja Cements, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Jindal Steel, LIC Housing Finance, National Aluminium Company, Bharat Dynamics, and Gail (India) will also announce their quarterly earnings this week.

Auto Sales

Auto stocks including Tata Motors, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai Motor India, Eicher Motors, TVS Motor, Hero MotoCorp, and Mahindra &amp; Mahindra will also be in focus this week as they will release their sales volumes data for the first month of this calendar year i.e. January, on the last day of this week i.e. February 1.

The focus will be on whether the double-digit growth observed across segments in December 2025 will be sustained in January.

Domestic Economic Data

On the economic data front, industrial and manufacturing production numbers for December will be released on January 28. This follows fiscal deficit data for December, bank loan &amp; deposit growth for the fortnight ended January 9, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended January 23, which are scheduled on January 30.

FOMC Meet

Globally, apart from geopolitical tensions and Trump tariff threats, the focus will be on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee's first monetary policy meeting of the current calendar year, scheduled on January 27-28. Most economists expect the central bank to hold the Fed funds rate in the 3.5-3.75 percent range after three cuts last year, given steady inflation and resilient consumer spending in the US.

Weekly US jobs data, monthly PPI, and durable goods data due this week will also shape monetary policy expectations.

Global Economic Data

Further, Europe's GDP growth flash numbers for Q4-CY25 and unemployment rate for December, and Japan's recent monetary policy meeting minutes, monthly retail sales, and construction orders data will also be announced this week.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790283 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260125231859_Image525012026.jpg" alt="Image525012026" width="1039" height="581" />

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php" target="_blank">FII Flow</a>

Back home, the market participants will keep an eye on the mood of FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) as they maintain persistent selling in Indian equities. In fact, they increased the intensity of selling in the last few weeks as it offloaded over Rs 14,600 crore worth shares in the recent week against over Rs 14,200 crore worth shares selling in the previous week, taking the total current month's outflow to Rs 40,700 crore (as per provisional numbers, which is the highest since August 2025).

The consistent weakening rupee against the US dollar, the delay in the India-US trade deal, and the unimpressive December quarter earnings seem to be key reasons behind FIIs selling, according to experts.

On the contrary, DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) continued to provide strong support to the market, though FIIs capped market upside. DIIs' net buying was far higher than FIIs' outflow, picking up shares worth over Rs 20,700 crore in the recent week, taking the total net purchases for January to over Rs 54,800 crore.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee hit an intraday record low of 91.965 against the US dollar, depreciating 1.07 percent for the recent week to end at a new closing low of 91.635 and sustaining above the upper Bollinger bands.

The US dollar index fell 1.93 percent during the recent week (the biggest weekly fall since April 2025) to end at 97.456, the lowest closing level since June 2025, amid heightened volatility and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO</a>

The primary market will see five new companies - Kasturi Metal Composite, Kanishk Aluminium India, Msafe Equipments, Accretion Nutraveda, and CKK Retail Mart launching their IPOs amounting to Rs 226 crore - all from the SME segment - this week, while the action is absent in the mainboard segment.

The IPOs by Hannah Joseph Hospital and Shayona Engineering will remain open for subscription till January 27.

Meanwhile, five new companies will be available for trading on the bourses this week, including Shadowfax Technologies - the only company from the mainboard segment - scheduled for its market debut on January 28. The other four companies - Digilogic Systems, KRM Ayurveda, Hannah Joseph Hospital, and Shayona Engineering (all from the SME segment) will also be listed in the current week.

Technical View, F&amp;O Cues

Technically, the Nifty 50 is expected to be volatile with a negative bias and likely to witness a broad trading range of 24,500-26,000 in the current week after reporting a sharp fall last week. The technical and momentum indicators are in favour of bears. The last week's low of 24,900 is expected to immediate crucial support for the index as below it, the 25,600-25,500 is the zone to watch, followed by 24,300 being crucial support (August 2025 low), however, the immedate resistance is placed at 25,160 (200-day EMA), followed by 25,450 and then 25,700-25,800 being critical hurdle as sustaining above it can get the bulls back on street, according to experts.

The monthly options data also indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to see a trading range of 24,500-26,000. The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,250 and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,300, 25,200 and 25,500 strikes, while the 24,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 24,700 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 24,700, 24,600 and 25,050 strikes.

Meanwhile, as expected, the India VIX maintained its strong uptrend ahead of the Union Budget. It surged 24.8 percent last week (the biggest weekly rally since April 2025) to 14.19 (the highest closing level since June 2025) and hit the 200-week EMA, signalling elevated market uncertainty. It gained for the fourth consecutive week.

Corporation Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13790284 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260125232301_Image425012026.jpg" alt="Image425012026" width="950" height="856" />

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street This Week: Union Budget, FOMC meet, Q3 earnings, auto sales among 10 key factors to watch

In the trading week starting from January 27 till February 1 (except Saturday holiday), the cautious market is expected to be volatile with focus majorly on Union Budget, and Fed interest rate decision.

Stock Market This Week: Union Budget, FOMC meet, Q3 earnings, auto sales among 10 key factors to watch

The market caught in a bear trap and plunged 2.5 percent in the last week ended January 23, pressured by renewed global trade tensions, geopolitical dynamics, persistent FII outflow, and uneven Q3 earnings.

Fresh US tariff threats against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets, but later, Donald Trump stepped back from immediate tariff action, which eased concerns of a US-EU trade war, but their relations remained strained.

The Indian rupee also hit a record low of 91.97 against the US dollar.

In the current trading week starting from January 27 till February 1 (except Saturday holiday), the cautious market is expected to be volatile with a major focus on the Union Budget and the Fed interest rate decision. Monthly auto sales data, US economic releases, and further corporate earnings will also be watched.

The BSE Sensex plummeted 2,033 points (2.43 percent) to close at 81,538, and the Nifty 50 fell 646 points (2.51 percent - the biggest weekly fall since September 2025) to 25,049, while the broader markets hit hard with the Nifty Midcap and Smallcap 100 indices crashing 4.55 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, in the current week, investors will closely track guidance from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows.

Sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand, he said.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said overall, markets would continue to track developments around global trade negotiations and geopolitical dynamics, while stock-specific action is expected to remain driven by ongoing Q3 earnings announcements.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out for this week:

Union Budget

The market participants will keenly watch the Union Budget 2026 - the major domestic factor - in the current week. The Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will announce the detailed estimated revenue and expenditures for the new financial year 2026-27 on February 1.

Most economists and experts expect the government to maintain continuity and increase capital expenditure for the new fiscal by 10-15 percent over the previous fiscal year, particularly as private sector investment has remained muted in recent months. Further, the fiscal discipline remains a key priority with experts expecting the fiscal deficit to be revised downward to 4.2-4.3 percent of GDP for FY27, against 4.4 percent for FY26, limiting the room for an aggressive and across-the-board capex expansion.

As a result, the budget is likely to adopt a more selective approach, prioritising sectors with higher multiplier effects and strategic relevance, experts said. Railways, defence manufacturing, renewables, AI-led infrastructure, and data centres are expected to remain in focus, ensuring continuity in asset creation without straining public finances.

Performance-linked incentive (PLI) schemes are also expected to be continued and expanded to support electronics, including semiconductors, mobiles, display units, and the manufacturing of clean-tech goods such as EVs, battery storage systems, renewables, and green hydrogen electrolysers.

Experts also expect more details on the National Manufacturing Mission, which was conceptualized in the last budget, and some initiatives for labour-intensive tariff-hit sectors and industries, including textiles, leather, toy manufacturing, among others, as well as for critical rare-earth minerals.

Budget is also likely to focus meaningfully on targeted consumption support, with measures like further income tax relief, higher standard deductions, increased rural and agricultural spending, employment generation schemes, skilling initiatives, and focused welfare programmes.

Corporate Earnings

The December quarter earnings season will be in full swing as nearly 500 companies are set to release their quarterly results in the current week. The list includes the prominent Nifty 50 names like Larsen &amp;amp; Toubro, Maruti Suzuki India, ITC, Axis Bank, Asian Paints, Tata Consumer Products, SBI Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, Nestle India, NTPC, Power Grid Corporation of India, Bharat Electronics, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.

Apart from Nifty 50 names, several other key names like Tata Motors, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, One 97 Communications Paytm, Swiggy, Meesho, Vodafone Idea, Marico, Vishal Mega Mart, WeWork India Management, ACC, CSB Bank, Gland Pharma, Lodha Developers, Mahindra &amp;amp; Mahindra Financial Services, National Securities Depository, Pine Labs, SBI Cards and Payment Services, TVS Motor Company, Adani Power, Blue Star, Colgate Palmolive, Dabur India, Indian Energy Exchange, Manappuram Finance, Vedanta, Voltas, Ambuja Cements, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Jindal Steel, LIC Housing Finance, National Aluminium Company, Bharat Dynamics, and Gail (India) will also announce their quarterly earnings this week.

Auto Sales

Auto stocks including Tata Motors, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai Motor India, Eicher Motors, TVS Motor, Hero MotoCorp, and Mahindra &amp;amp; Mahindra will also be in focus this week as they will release their sales volumes data for the first month of this calendar year i.e. January, on the last day of this week i.e. February 1.

The focus will be on whether the double-digit growth observed across segments in December 2025 will be sustained in January.

Domestic Economic Data

On the economic data front, industrial and manufacturing production numbers for December will be released on January 28. This follows fiscal deficit data for December, bank loan &amp;amp; deposit growth for the fortnight ended January 9, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended January 23, which are scheduled on January 30.

FOMC Meet

Globally, apart from geopolitical tensions and Trump tariff threats, the focus will be on the two-day Federal Open Market Committee's first monetary policy meeting of the current calendar year, scheduled on January 27-28. Most economists expect the central bank to hold the Fed funds rate in the 3.5-3.75 percent range after three cuts last year, given steady inflation and resilient consumer spending in the US.

Weekly US jobs data, monthly PPI, and durable goods data due this week will also shape monetary policy expectations.

Global Economic Data

Further, Europe's GDP growth flash numbers for Q4-CY25 and unemployment rate for December, and Japan's recent monetary policy meeting minutes, monthly retail sales, and construction orders data will also be announced this week.



FII Flow

Back home, the market participants will keep an eye on the mood of FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) as they maintain persistent selling in Indian equities. In fact, they increased the intensity of selling in the last few weeks as it offloaded over Rs 14,600 crore worth shares in the recent week against over Rs 14,200 crore worth shares selling in the previous week, taking the total current month's outflow to Rs 40,700 crore (as per provisional numbers, which is the highest since August 2025).

The consistent weakening rupee against the US dollar, the delay in the India-US trade deal, and the unimpressive December quarter earnings seem to be key reasons behind FIIs selling, according to experts.

On the contrary, DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) continued to provide strong support to the market, though FIIs capped market upside. DIIs' net buying was far higher than FIIs' outflow, picking up shares worth over Rs 20,700 crore in the recent week, taking the total net purchases for January to over Rs 54,800 crore.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee hit an intraday record low of 91.965 against the US dollar, depreciating 1.07 percent for the recent week to end at a new closing low of 91.635 and sustaining above the upper Bollinger bands.

The US dollar index fell 1.93 percent during the recent week (the biggest weekly fall since April 2025) to end at 97.456, the lowest closing level since June 2025, amid heightened volatility and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

IPO

The primary market will see five new companies - Kasturi Metal Composite, Kanishk Aluminium India, Msafe Equipments, Accretion Nutraveda, and CKK Retail Mart launching their IPOs amounting to Rs 226 crore - all from the SME segment - this week, while the action is absent in the mainboard segment.

The IPOs by Hannah Joseph Hospital and Shayona Engineering will remain open for subscription till January 27.

Meanwhile, five new companies will be available for trading on the bourses this week, including Shadowfax Technologies - the only company from the mainboard segment - scheduled for its market debut on January 28. The other four companies - Digilogic Systems, KRM Ayurveda, Hannah Joseph Hospital, and Shayona Engineering (all from the SME segment) will also be listed in the current week.

Technical View, F&amp;amp;O Cues

Technically, the Nifty 50 is expected to be volatile with a negative bias and likely to witness a broad trading range of 24,500-26,000 in the current week after reporting a sharp fall last week. The technical and momentum indicators are in favour of bears. The last week's low of 24,900 is expected to immediate crucial support for the index as below it, the 25,600-25,500 is the zone to watch, followed by 24,300 being crucial support (August 2025 low), however, the immedate resistance is placed at 25,160 (200-day EMA), followed by 25,450 and then 25,700-25,800 being critical hurdle as sustaining above it can get the bulls back on street, according to experts.

The monthly options data also indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to see a trading range of 24,500-26,000. The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,250 and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,300, 25,200 and 25,500 strikes, while the 24,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 24,700 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 24,700, 24,600 and 25,050 strikes.

Meanwhile, as expected, the India VIX maintained its strong uptrend ahead of the Union Budget. It surged 24.8 percent last week (the biggest weekly rally since April 2025) to 14.19 (the highest closing level since June 2025) and hit the 200-week EMA, signalling elevated market uncertainty. It gained for the fourth consecutive week.

Corporation Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place this week:



Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Don’t expect major changes to tax structures in Budget, Earnings outlook remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish, Remain overweight on large cap equities but neutral on equities overall

* Don’t expect major changes to tax structures in Budget
* Earnings outlook remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish
* Remain overweight on large cap equities but neutral on equities overall

shorts/budget/daily-voice-don-t-expect-major-tax-structure-changes-in-budget-earnings-outlook-cautiously-optimistic-says-client-associates-co-founder

* Don’t expect major changes to tax structures in Budget
* Earnings outlook remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish
* Remain overweight on large cap equities but neutral on equities overall

According to Rohit Sarin, the Co-Founder of Client Associates, the Union Budget 2026 is unlikely to bring any major changes to tax structures. The emphasis is more likely to remain on stability and continuity rather than introducing disruptive tax measures, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes that earnings growth has likely bottomed out but does not expect a sharp or immediate rebound. The recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual and uneven across sectors, he said.

However, he is of the view that sustained acceleration will depend on a pickup in consumption, private capex, and global growth conditions. As a result, his outlook on earnings remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish.

Do you believe India is likely to outperform global markets in 2026 despite the ongoing weakness?

US equity markets currently account for close to 70 percent of the total global equity market capitalization. Within the US markets, the top seven technology companies alone contribute nearly 30 percent of overall market capitalization, highlighting a high degree of concentration. This concentration, combined with elevated valuations in US equities, increases the risk of underperformance if earnings expectations or liquidity conditions change.

In contrast, Indian equity market valuations are broadly in line with long-term historical averages. When viewed alongside India’s relatively stable macroeconomic environment, resilient domestic demand, and improving balance sheets across corporate and banking sectors, the probability of Indian markets outperforming US and global markets in 2026 appears reasonably high. This relative valuation comfort and macro stability provide a supportive base for medium term outperformance.

Is this the right time and a good opportunity to rotate portfolios, given the sharp correction from record high levels?

It is extremely difficult to consistently time the markets, especially during phases of heightened volatility. We therefore advise investors to take portfolio decisions based on their long term asset allocation rather than reacting to short term market movements. Our current stance remains overweight on large-cap equities while being neutral on equities overall.

Large caps continue to offer better visibility on earnings and balance sheet strength. If an investor’s current allocation to equities or large caps is lower than their intended strategic allocation, this correction can be used as an opportunity to gradually increase exposure in a disciplined manner rather than making aggressive tactical calls.

Do you think the government is unlikely to announce significant changes on the tax front in the upcoming Budget?

Lower inflation has resulted in lower than normalized nominal GDP growth, which in turn has had an impact on the pace of growth in tax collections. At the same time, the government undertook meaningful rationalization of direct taxes in last year’s Budget, which has already provided relief to taxpayers and improved compliance.

Given these factors, along with the government’s continued focus on fiscal consolidation, we do not expect any major changes to tax structures in the upcoming Budget. The emphasis is more likely to remain on stability and continuity rather than on introducing disruptive tax measures.

What could be the government’s key focus areas in the Union Budget that may help revive a bull market and pull markets out of the current bear trap?

Over the last three fiscal years, the government has made aggressive and growth-oriented allocations towards capital expenditure, which has played a key role in supporting economic activity. As this capex-led cycle matures, the government’s fiscal policy now appears to be gradually tilting towards reviving consumption-driven demand. This could be achieved through targeted support measures, welfare schemes, and incentives aimed at boosting discretionary spending.

We expect this policy stance to continue, as stronger consumption can help improve capacity utilization, corporate earnings visibility, and overall market sentiment.

Are you bullish on the earnings cycle, with the belief that earnings have bottomed out in Q3 FY26?

While we believe that earnings growth has likely bottomed out, we do not expect a sharp or immediate rebound. The recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual and uneven across sectors. Over the next three to four quarters, earnings growth may improve modestly as demand stabilizes and input cost pressures ease.

However, sustained acceleration will depend on a pickup in consumption, private capex, and global growth conditions. As a result, our outlook on earnings remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish.

Do you think the US trade deal is more important from a psychological standpoint than from a fundamental perspective?

Yes, that is correct. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the impact of the US trade deal on India’s overall GDP growth is limited. However, such developments play an important role in shaping market sentiment and investor confidence.

Improved trade relations can reduce uncertainty, support risk appetite, and positively influence capital flows, making the psychological impact more meaningful than the direct fundamental impact.

Are valuations still stretched in mid-cap stocks? Do you believe there is further downside risk in overvalued stocks?

Valuations in the mid-cap segment remain around one standard deviation above their long-term averages. While this does not necessarily imply an immediate sharp correction, it does suggest a limited margin of safety.

Unless earnings growth improves meaningfully and catches up with expectations, there remains scope for further time correction or price correction in overvalued mid-cap stocks. Investors should therefore remain selective and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and sustainable earnings visibility.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice | Don’t expect major tax-structure changes in Budget; earnings outlook cautiously optimistic, says Client Associates co-founder

According to Rohit Sarin, the Co-Founder of Client Associates, the Union Budget 2026 is unlikely to bring any major changes to tax structures. The emphasis is more likely to remain on stability and continuity rather than introducing disruptive tax measures, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes that earnings growth has likely bottomed out but does not expect a sharp or immediate rebound. The recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual and uneven across sectors, he said.

However, he is of the view that sustained acceleration will depend on a pickup in consumption, private capex, and global growth conditions. As a result, his outlook on earnings remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish.

Do you believe India is likely to outperform global markets in 2026 despite the ongoing weakness?

US equity markets currently account for close to 70 percent of the total global equity market capitalization. Within the US markets, the top seven technology companies alone contribute nearly 30 percent of overall market capitalization, highlighting a high degree of concentration. This concentration, combined with elevated valuations in US equities, increases the risk of underperformance if earnings expectations or liquidity conditions change.

In contrast, Indian equity market valuations are broadly in line with long-term historical averages. When viewed alongside India’s relatively stable macroeconomic environment, resilient domestic demand, and improving balance sheets across corporate and banking sectors, the probability of Indian markets outperforming US and global markets in 2026 appears reasonably high. This relative valuation comfort and macro stability provide a supportive base for medium term outperformance.

Is this the right time and a good opportunity to rotate portfolios, given the sharp correction from record high levels?

It is extremely difficult to consistently time the markets, especially during phases of heightened volatility. We therefore advise investors to take portfolio decisions based on their long term asset allocation rather than reacting to short term market movements. Our current stance remains overweight on large-cap equities while being neutral on equities overall.

Large caps continue to offer better visibility on earnings and balance sheet strength. If an investor’s current allocation to equities or large caps is lower than their intended strategic allocation, this correction can be used as an opportunity to gradually increase exposure in a disciplined manner rather than making aggressive tactical calls.

Do you think the government is unlikely to announce significant changes on the tax front in the upcoming Budget?

Lower inflation has resulted in lower than normalized nominal GDP growth, which in turn has had an impact on the pace of growth in tax collections. At the same time, the government undertook meaningful rationalization of direct taxes in last year’s Budget, which has already provided relief to taxpayers and improved compliance.

Given these factors, along with the government’s continued focus on fiscal consolidation, we do not expect any major changes to tax structures in the upcoming Budget. The emphasis is more likely to remain on stability and continuity rather than on introducing disruptive tax measures.

What could be the government’s key focus areas in the Union Budget that may help revive a bull market and pull markets out of the current bear trap?

Over the last three fiscal years, the government has made aggressive and growth-oriented allocations towards capital expenditure, which has played a key role in supporting economic activity. As this capex-led cycle matures, the government’s fiscal policy now appears to be gradually tilting towards reviving consumption-driven demand. This could be achieved through targeted support measures, welfare schemes, and incentives aimed at boosting discretionary spending.

We expect this policy stance to continue, as stronger consumption can help improve capacity utilization, corporate earnings visibility, and overall market sentiment.

Are you bullish on the earnings cycle, with the belief that earnings have bottomed out in Q3 FY26?

While we believe that earnings growth has likely bottomed out, we do not expect a sharp or immediate rebound. The recovery in earnings is expected to be gradual and uneven across sectors. Over the next three to four quarters, earnings growth may improve modestly as demand stabilizes and input cost pressures ease.

However, sustained acceleration will depend on a pickup in consumption, private capex, and global growth conditions. As a result, our outlook on earnings remains cautiously optimistic rather than outright bullish.

Do you think the US trade deal is more important from a psychological standpoint than from a fundamental perspective?

Yes, that is correct. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the impact of the US trade deal on India’s overall GDP growth is limited. However, such developments play an important role in shaping market sentiment and investor confidence.

Improved trade relations can reduce uncertainty, support risk appetite, and positively influence capital flows, making the psychological impact more meaningful than the direct fundamental impact.

Are valuations still stretched in mid-cap stocks? Do you believe there is further downside risk in overvalued stocks?

Valuations in the mid-cap segment remain around one standard deviation above their long-term averages. While this does not necessarily imply an immediate sharp correction, it does suggest a limited margin of safety.

Unless earnings growth improves meaningfully and catches up with expectations, there remains scope for further time correction or price correction in overvalued mid-cap stocks. Investors should therefore remain selective and focus on companies with strong fundamentals and sustainable earnings visibility.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, marking the biggest weekly drop in four months, Foreign investors sold Rs 14,651 crore in equities; rupee hit a fresh low, Cautious market sentiment may push Nifty down to 24,600 soon.

* Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, marking the biggest weekly drop in four months
* Foreign investors sold Rs 14,651 crore in equities; rupee hit a fresh low
* Cautious market sentiment may push Nifty down to 24,600 soon.

Indian equity indices saw their biggest weekly drop in four months, with Sensex and Nifty falling over 4% amid mixed earnings, foreign investor outflows, and rupee weakness. Experts expect continued caution, with key support and resistance levels in focus.

shorts/business/broader-indices-log-biggest-weekly-decline-in-4-months-over-200-small-caps-see-double-digit-losses

* Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, marking the biggest weekly drop in four months
* Foreign investors sold Rs 14,651 crore in equities; rupee hit a fresh low
* Cautious market sentiment may push Nifty down to 24,600 soon.

Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, logging their biggest weekly decline in four months and underperforming the benchmark indices amid mixed earnings from India Inc, continued foreign investor outflows, and the rupee hitting a fresh low.

The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65.

So far this month, the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have each declined 4 percent, while the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices have fallen 5.7 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore.

"Indian equity markets remained cautious and volatile through the week, pressured by renewed global trade tensions and continued foreign investor outflows. Fresh U.S. tariff threats against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. Moreover, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs further restrained risk-taking," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

"Corporate earnings reinforced the mixed sentiment, as weaker results from leading banking and IT companies tempered market enthusiasm, although selective value buying offered intermittent support. While global cues briefly improved following constructive remarks from the U.S. President on the Greenland issue, the domestic market’s rebound was short-lived, highlighting the persistence of external headwinds for India."

"Market direction in the coming week is likely to be driven by global macroeconomic signals and domestic fiscal expectations. Investors will closely track guidance from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows," Nair said.

"With the Q3 earnings season still underway, stock-specific movements are expected to remain prominent. Overall sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand," he added.

The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13789279" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260124035721_123.png" alt="123" width="852" height="4404" />

Where is Nifty50 headed?

Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking

The 81,000–81,100 zone is emerging as a crucial support area for the Sensex, acting as a cushion where dip-buying interest may surface if weakness deepens. On the upside, 82,000–82,100 stands as the immediate resistance band, where any short-term rebound is likely to encounter supply pressure and profit booking.

With the index ending decisively below recent intermediate levels and broad-based selling dominating the session, the near-term bias remains cautious to bearish. Selective accumulation may be considered only if the key support zone holds and clear buying interest re-emerges."

Amol Athawale, VP – Technical Research

We are of the view that as long as the market trades below the 100-day SMA or 25500/83000, the weak formation is likely to continue. On the downside, 24900/81100 would act as an immediate support zone. Below this level, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Further below, the market could slip to 24700,–24,500/80500-80000. On the upside, above 25,200/82000, we could see a quick pullback up to 25,350–25,500/82500-83000.

For Bank Nifty, 58,000 would act as a key level for traders. Below this, the correction wave is likely to continue until 57,500–57100. Conversely, above 59,000, it could bounce back up to 59,350–59,500.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness since early part of the session. The weakness got intensified in the mid to later part and Nifty finally closed at the lows.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates a formation of lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative and one may expect Nifty sliding below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched around 24600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The index remained weak throughout the session as it stayed below the 20 EMA on the hourly chart. In addition, the index has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500. On the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Broader indices log biggest weekly decline in 4 months; over 200 small-caps see double-digit losses

Broader indices fell 4–6 percent, logging their biggest weekly decline in four months and underperforming the benchmark indices amid mixed earnings from India Inc, continued foreign investor outflows, and the rupee hitting a fresh low.

The BSE Sensex declined 769.67 points, or 2.43 percent, to close at 81,537.70, while the Nifty50 shed 241.25 points, or 2.51 percent, to end at 25,048.65.

So far this month, the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have each declined 4 percent, while the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices have fallen 5.7 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

All the sectoral indices gave negative return with Nifty Realty shed more than 11 percent, Nifty Consumer Durables index slipped 6.5 percent, Nifty Media plunged 4 percent, Nifty Oil &amp;amp; Gas, Energy, Infra, Defence, Healthcare fell 3 percent each.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 14,651.99 crore during the period, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) offset the selling with purchases worth Rs 20,746 crore.

&quot;Indian equity markets remained cautious and volatile through the week, pressured by renewed global trade tensions and continued foreign investor outflows. Fresh U.S. tariff threats against European nations linked to the Greenland issue dampened global risk appetite, prompting a shift toward safe-haven assets. Moreover, rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs further restrained risk-taking,&quot; said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

&quot;Corporate earnings reinforced the mixed sentiment, as weaker results from leading banking and IT companies tempered market enthusiasm, although selective value buying offered intermittent support. While global cues briefly improved following constructive remarks from the U.S. President on the Greenland issue, the domestic market’s rebound was short-lived, highlighting the persistence of external headwinds for India.&quot;

&quot;Market direction in the coming week is likely to be driven by global macroeconomic signals and domestic fiscal expectations. Investors will closely track guidance from the Fed on the trajectory of interest rate cuts, while positioning may be influenced by anticipation surrounding the Union Budget, particularly any measures aimed at easing external trade pressures and supporting capital flows,&quot; Nair said.

&quot;With the Q3 earnings season still underway, stock-specific movements are expected to remain prominent. Overall sentiment is likely to stay cautious, shaped by global developments, currency trends, and earnings outcomes, with selective opportunities emerging in segments supported by resilient domestic demand,&quot; he added.

The BSE Small-cap index declined shed nearly 6 percent with Best Agrolife, Sudarshan Colorants India, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Systematix Corporate Services, Ajmera Realty and Infra India, Sigachi Industries, Wanbury, OneSource Specialty Pharma, IIFL Finance, Jayaswal Neco Industries, Ramco System, Authum Investment &amp;amp; Infrastucture, Arisinfra Solutions, Bigbloc Construction falling between 17-25 percent, while gainers included Dhampur Bio Organics, Lotus Chocolate Company, Baazar Style Retail, Jindal Saw, Shanthi Gears, Mercury Ev-Tech.



Where is Nifty50 headed?

Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking

The 81,000–81,100 zone is emerging as a crucial support area for the Sensex, acting as a cushion where dip-buying interest may surface if weakness deepens. On the upside, 82,000–82,100 stands as the immediate resistance band, where any short-term rebound is likely to encounter supply pressure and profit booking.

With the index ending decisively below recent intermediate levels and broad-based selling dominating the session, the near-term bias remains cautious to bearish. Selective accumulation may be considered only if the key support zone holds and clear buying interest re-emerges.&quot;

Amol Athawale, VP – Technical Research

We are of the view that as long as the market trades below the 100-day SMA or 25500/83000, the weak formation is likely to continue. On the downside, 24900/81100 would act as an immediate support zone. Below this level, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Further below, the market could slip to 24700,–24,500/80500-80000. On the upside, above 25,200/82000, we could see a quick pullback up to 25,350–25,500/82500-83000.

For Bank Nifty, 58,000 would act as a key level for traders. Below this, the correction wave is likely to continue until 57,500–57100. Conversely, above 59,000, it could bounce back up to 59,350–59,500.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After showing a bounce back in the last couple of sessions, Nifty slipped into sharp weakness on Friday and closed the day lower by 241 points. After opening on a positive note, the market was not able to sustain the opening gains and started with weakness since early part of the session. The weakness got intensified in the mid to later part and Nifty finally closed at the lows.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart which indicates a formation of lower top reversal pattern at the recent swing highs of 25400 levels. Nifty on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle this week after the minor bounce of last week. The overall chart pattern remains negative and one may expect Nifty sliding below the recent low of 24900 by next week. The near-term downside target to be watched around 24600. Immediate resistance is placed at 25200 levels.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The index remained weak throughout the session as it stayed below the 20 EMA on the hourly chart. In addition, the index has finally slipped below the 200 DMA on a closing basis, suggesting capitulation by the bulls after a futile attempt to defend the crucial long-term moving average.

As a result, short- to medium-term sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below 25,500. On the downside, the decline could extend toward 24,700 in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

null out of 2 years BSE SENSEX NEXT 30 has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	39,638.22	40,076.15	40,321.48	39,392.89	38,954.96	38,709.63	38,271.70
Fibonacci	39,653.90	39,815.14	40,076.15	39,392.89	39,131.88	38,970.64	38,709.63
Camarilla	39,262.92	39,325.55	39,388.19	39,392.89	39,137.66	39,075.03	39,012.39

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - BSE SENSEX NEXT 30

Net Contribution

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