BSE 500

Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking, Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover, Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

* Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking
* Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover
* Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

Indian equities fell as Nifty dropped below 25,500 amid weak global cues and profit booking. Sensex lost 324 points; most sectors declined except FMCG. Over 420 stocks hit 52-week lows. Bharat Coking Coal fell 10% after listing with a strong premium on NSE.

shorts/business/taking-stock-nifty-closes-below-25-600-sensex-falls-over-300-pts-realty-media-stocks-worst-hit

* Nifty fell below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered profit booking
* Sensex closed down 324 points; FMCG and auto stocks helped benchmarks recover
* Bharat Coking Coal shares fell 10% after a strong premium listing.

Indian equities began the week on a subdued note, with the Nifty falling below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered broad-based profit booking. The renewed concerns over a potential global trade war and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. However, select buying in FMCG and auto stocks provided support, helping the benchmarks recover from the day’s lows.

At close, the Sensex was down 324.17 points or 0.39 percent at 83,246.18, and the Nifty was down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent at 25,585.50.

The BSE Midcap index declined in line with the benchmark indices, falling 0.4 percent, while the Smallcap index underperformed, dropping 1.3 percent.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/budget/markets-struggle-in-month-long-budget-window-but-deliver-strong-long-term-gains-article-13778009.html">Markets struggle in month-long Budget window but deliver strong long-term gains</a>

Wipro, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Max Healthcare were among the top Nifty losers, while InterGlobe Aviation, Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HUL and Maruti Suzuki featured among the top gainers.

Except FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the red with media, Oil &amp; Gas, Realty down 1.5-2 percent.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/p-e-above-1-000-how-shadowfax-stacks-up-against-delhivery-and-blue-dart-13778095.html">P/E above 1,000? How Shadowfax stacks up against Delhivery and Blue Dart</a>

In stocks, Hindustan Zinc shares rose 3% as March silver contract hits fresh record high, CG Power shares added 4% on winning Rs 900 crore US data centre order, Indosolar shares slipped 4% despite strong Q3 earnings, Wipro shares crashed 8% on weak Q3 guidance, RBL Bank shares fell 7% post Q3 earnings, Tech Mahindra shares added 3%, while ICICI Bank shares shed 2% on Q3 earnings.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/silver-crosses-rs-3-lakh-mark-should-you-buy-hold-or-sell-13778943.html">Silver crosses Rs 3 lakh mark: Should you buy, hold, or sell?</a>

More than 420 stocks hit 52-week low including Godrej Properties, Indegene, Tejas Networks, SignatureGlobal, Brigade Enterprises, Newgen Software, Poly Medicure, Action Constion, Vedant Fashions, Sheela Foam, Bata India, Zee Entertainment, Bajaj Housing, AWL Agri, Afcons Infra, Aditya Birla Fashion, C. E. Info Systems, among others. <a href="http://moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%2520500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

New Listing

Bharat Coking Coal shares ended 10 percent lower at Rs 40.66 after got listed with a premium of more than 95 percent at Rs 45 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), following a massive subscription of 147 times between January 9-13 in the primary market.

Outlook for January 20

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, the benchmark indices corrected sharply. The Nifty ends 109 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 324 points. Among sectors, the Reality Index lost the most, shed over 2 percent, whereas despite weak market sentiment, some buying interest was seen in selective FMCG stocks. Technically, after an early morning intraday selloff, the market took support near 25,500/82900 and trimmed some losses. However, the short-term market texture remains weak. On daily charts, it has formed a bearish candle, and on intraday charts, it is holding a weak formation, which is largely negative.

We are of the view that the current market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,500/82900 is dismissed. Below this level, the market could slip to 25,400-25,350/82600-82500. On the flip side, above 25,650/83500, a pullback move could extend till 25,750-25,800/83800-84000. The intraday market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained under bearish control, with the index sustaining below the 20 EMA throughout the session. Intraday volatility persisted, and every rise was sold into.

The RSI continued in a bearish crossover and trended lower as the index closed at a multi-day low.

Market fear remained elevated, as reflected by a spike in India VIX. In the near term, the index may continue to drift lower, with a potential downside target around 25,200, while resistance is placed near 25,700.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

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Taking Stock: Nifty closes below 25,600, Sensex falls over 300 pts; realty, media stocks worst hit

Indian equities began the week on a subdued note, with the Nifty falling below 25,500 intraday as weak global cues triggered broad-based profit booking. The renewed concerns over a potential global trade war and mixed earnings weighed on sentiment. However, select buying in FMCG and auto stocks provided support, helping the benchmarks recover from the day’s lows.

At close, the Sensex was down 324.17 points or 0.39 percent at 83,246.18, and the Nifty was down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent at 25,585.50.

The BSE Midcap index declined in line with the benchmark indices, falling 0.4 percent, while the Smallcap index underperformed, dropping 1.3 percent.

Also Read: Markets struggle in month-long Budget window but deliver strong long-term gains

Wipro, Eternal, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Max Healthcare were among the top Nifty losers, while InterGlobe Aviation, Tech Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HUL and Maruti Suzuki featured among the top gainers.

Except FMCG, all other sectoral indices ended in the red with media, Oil &amp;amp; Gas, Realty down 1.5-2 percent.

Also Read - P/E above 1,000? How Shadowfax stacks up against Delhivery and Blue Dart

In stocks, Hindustan Zinc shares rose 3% as March silver contract hits fresh record high, CG Power shares added 4% on winning Rs 900 crore US data centre order, Indosolar shares slipped 4% despite strong Q3 earnings, Wipro shares crashed 8% on weak Q3 guidance, RBL Bank shares fell 7% post Q3 earnings, Tech Mahindra shares added 3%, while ICICI Bank shares shed 2% on Q3 earnings.

Also Read - Silver crosses Rs 3 lakh mark: Should you buy, hold, or sell?

More than 420 stocks hit 52-week low including Godrej Properties, Indegene, Tejas Networks, SignatureGlobal, Brigade Enterprises, Newgen Software, Poly Medicure, Action Constion, Vedant Fashions, Sheela Foam, Bata India, Zee Entertainment, Bajaj Housing, AWL Agri, Afcons Infra, Aditya Birla Fashion, C. E. Info Systems, among others. Click to View More

New Listing

Bharat Coking Coal shares ended 10 percent lower at Rs 40.66 after got listed with a premium of more than 95 percent at Rs 45 per share on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), following a massive subscription of 147 times between January 9-13 in the primary market.

Outlook for January 20

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, the benchmark indices corrected sharply. The Nifty ends 109 points lower, while the Sensex was down by 324 points. Among sectors, the Reality Index lost the most, shed over 2 percent, whereas despite weak market sentiment, some buying interest was seen in selective FMCG stocks. Technically, after an early morning intraday selloff, the market took support near 25,500/82900 and trimmed some losses. However, the short-term market texture remains weak. On daily charts, it has formed a bearish candle, and on intraday charts, it is holding a weak formation, which is largely negative.

We are of the view that the current market texture is weak, but a fresh selloff is possible only if 25,500/82900 is dismissed. Below this level, the market could slip to 25,400-25,350/82600-82500. On the flip side, above 25,650/83500, a pullback move could extend till 25,750-25,800/83800-84000. The intraday market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained under bearish control, with the index sustaining below the 20 EMA throughout the session. Intraday volatility persisted, and every rise was sold into.

The RSI continued in a bearish crossover and trended lower as the index closed at a multi-day low.

Market fear remained elevated, as reflected by a spike in India VIX. In the near term, the index may continue to drift lower, with a potential downside target around 25,200, while resistance is placed near 25,700.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Live: Nifty below 25,600 as heavyweights weigh, majority sectors in red | Closing Bell

Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns., US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility., India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

* Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns.
* US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility.
* India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

Sensex and Nifty fell on Monday amid profit booking and global trade concerns after Trump announced new tariffs on eight European nations. Uncertainty over Fed chair, rising India VIX, and persistent FII selling also weighed on market sentiment and increased volatility.

shorts/business/sensex-down-450-pts-nifty-near-25-550-negative-global-cues-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

* Sensex and Nifty fell amid profit booking and global trade concerns.
* US tariff threats on Europe triggered fresh market volatility.
* India VIX rose over 5 percent, signaling increased investor caution.

The benchmark equity indices <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-weak-start-us-asian-markets-slip-liveblog-13777832.html">Sensex</a> and Nifty were trading 0.7% lower on January 19 morning amid broad-based selling as renewed global trade concerns and a host of other factors weighed on investor sentiment.

The Sensex settled 324.17 points or 0.39 percent lower at 83,246.18, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,585.50, down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent. Among top losers on Nifty were Wipro, Tata Motors PV, ICICI Bank, Max Healthcare.
<h3>Key factors behind market decline</h3>
1) Negative global cues: Global markets are facing volatility after President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, injecting fresh trade uncertainty as stocks slid and the dollar broadly weakened.

Trump said he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, which will rise to 25 percent on June 1 if no deal is reached.

In European markets, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 1.1%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1% as risk-off sentiment prevailed.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which means a delayed reaction on Wall Street. US stock futures were 0.7 percent lower in early Asian hours.

The implications for the dollar were less clear, although the greenback was broadly lower on Monday. It remains a safe haven, but could also feel the impact of Washington being at the centre of geopolitical ruptures, as it did last April.

The dollar weakness lifted the safe haven yen and Swiss Franc. Bitcoin, a liquid proxy for risk, fell nearly 3% to $92,602.64.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said "It’s going to be volatile days ahead in the near-term for stock markets globally with big geopolitical and geoeconomic developments impacting markets. We don’t know now how President Trump’s disruptive policies are going to impact international trade and global economic growth. How the European nations are going to react to President Trump’s latest Greenland tariffs remains to be seen. If Trump walks his talk and imposes 10% tariffs on the eight European countries on February 1st and follows it up by raising the tariffs to 25% from June 1st onwards, retaliation by the European bloc is almost certain. In such a scenario a trade war will breakout impacting global trade and growth. The likely impact of such a development on the market will be negative. It is also likely that Trump chickens out as has happened in the past."

2) Fed chair speculation: Sentiment was also affected after Trump said Kevin Hassett may not become the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve and could continue in his current role as Director of the White House National Economic Council. Hassett is considered relatively supportive of policy easing, and uncertainty over his appointment led to some moderation in expectations around aggressive rate cuts in 2026, influencing global market sentiment.

3) India VIX rises: The volatility index, India VIX, rose more than 5 percent to 11.98, indicating increased caution among investors.

4) Persistent FII selling: The foreign institutinal investors remaind seller for the 9th straight session on Friday, selling Rs 4,346.13 crore.

"The sustained selling by FIIs continued for the week ending on 16th January. The total FII selling for January up to 16th stood at Rs 22529 crores. This month FIIs were sellers on all days except one. The underperformance of India vis-a-vis other major markets is continuing in early 2026 also," added Vijayakumar.

5) Weak Q3 results: Sluggish December quarter results also weighed on market sentiment as IT index, which fell 1 percent, dragged by Wipro as it lost 7.2 percent.

The country's fourth-largest IT services firm forecast weaker-than-expected revenue growth for the ongoing March quarter after deal booking fell to a six-quarter low in the December period.

"Mixed earnings from frontline stocks have kept markets in a cautious zone, caught in a continued tug of war between cautious bears and selective buying by bulls," Prashanth Tapse, senior vice president of research at Mehta Equities told Reuters.

ICICI Bank shares fell nearly 3 percent post-Q3 results. ICICI Bank missed expectations on higher provisions for bad loans, reported Reuters.
<h3>Technical analysis</h3>
The Nifty remained volatile over the past week, recording a high of 25,899 and a low of 25,473 before closing marginally higher at 25,694, reflecting ongoing market indecision. The formation of a spinning top on the weekly chart highlights uncertainty near higher levels, with resistance seen around the 50-day EMA. On the daily chart, the Nifty closed below the 25,700 mark, indicating short-term weakness. While the index continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it remains above the 200-day EMA, thereby keeping the medium-term bias constructive. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,875, followed by 26,000 and 26,100, while key support levels are seen at 25,600 and 25,450.

With inputs from Reuters

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends below 25,600: Negative global cues among key factors behind market decline

Sensex news today: Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends below 25,600: Negative global cues among key factors behind market decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty were trading 0.7% lower on January 19 morning amid broad-based selling as renewed global trade concerns and a host of other factors weighed on investor sentiment.

The Sensex settled 324.17 points or 0.39 percent lower at 83,246.18, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,585.50, down 108.85 points or 0.42 percent. Among top losers on Nifty were Wipro, Tata Motors PV, ICICI Bank, Max Healthcare.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Negative global cues: Global markets are facing volatility after President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, injecting fresh trade uncertainty as stocks slid and the dollar broadly weakened.

Trump said he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain, which will rise to 25 percent on June 1 if no deal is reached.

In European markets, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both fell 1.1%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1% as risk-off sentiment prevailed.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which means a delayed reaction on Wall Street. US stock futures were 0.7 percent lower in early Asian hours.

The implications for the dollar were less clear, although the greenback was broadly lower on Monday. It remains a safe haven, but could also feel the impact of Washington being at the centre of geopolitical ruptures, as it did last April.

The dollar weakness lifted the safe haven yen and Swiss Franc. Bitcoin, a liquid proxy for risk, fell nearly 3% to $92,602.64.

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said &quot;It’s going to be volatile days ahead in the near-term for stock markets globally with big geopolitical and geoeconomic developments impacting markets. We don’t know now how President Trump’s disruptive policies are going to impact international trade and global economic growth. How the European nations are going to react to President Trump’s latest Greenland tariffs remains to be seen. If Trump walks his talk and imposes 10% tariffs on the eight European countries on February 1st and follows it up by raising the tariffs to 25% from June 1st onwards, retaliation by the European bloc is almost certain. In such a scenario a trade war will breakout impacting global trade and growth. The likely impact of such a development on the market will be negative. It is also likely that Trump chickens out as has happened in the past.&quot;

2) Fed chair speculation: Sentiment was also affected after Trump said Kevin Hassett may not become the next Chair of the US Federal Reserve and could continue in his current role as Director of the White House National Economic Council. Hassett is considered relatively supportive of policy easing, and uncertainty over his appointment led to some moderation in expectations around aggressive rate cuts in 2026, influencing global market sentiment.

3) India VIX rises: The volatility index, India VIX, rose more than 5 percent to 11.98, indicating increased caution among investors.

4) Persistent FII selling: The foreign institutinal investors remaind seller for the 9th straight session on Friday, selling Rs 4,346.13 crore.

&quot;The sustained selling by FIIs continued for the week ending on 16th January. The total FII selling for January up to 16th stood at Rs 22529 crores. This month FIIs were sellers on all days except one. The underperformance of India vis-a-vis other major markets is continuing in early 2026 also,&quot; added Vijayakumar.

5) Weak Q3 results: Sluggish December quarter results also weighed on market sentiment as IT index, which fell 1 percent, dragged by Wipro as it lost 7.2 percent.

The country's fourth-largest IT services firm forecast weaker-than-expected revenue growth for the ongoing March quarter after deal booking fell to a six-quarter low in the December period.

&quot;Mixed earnings from frontline stocks have kept markets in a cautious zone, caught in a continued tug of war between cautious bears and selective buying by bulls,&quot; Prashanth Tapse, senior vice president of research at Mehta Equities told Reuters.

ICICI Bank shares fell nearly 3 percent post-Q3 results. ICICI Bank missed expectations on higher provisions for bad loans, reported Reuters.
Technical analysis
The Nifty remained volatile over the past week, recording a high of 25,899 and a low of 25,473 before closing marginally higher at 25,694, reflecting ongoing market indecision. The formation of a spinning top on the weekly chart highlights uncertainty near higher levels, with resistance seen around the 50-day EMA. On the daily chart, the Nifty closed below the 25,700 mark, indicating short-term weakness. While the index continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it remains above the 200-day EMA, thereby keeping the medium-term bias constructive. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,875, followed by 26,000 and 26,100, while key support levels are seen at 25,600 and 25,450.

With inputs from Reuters

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Live: Can Nifty breach 25,900 after RIL, HDFC Bank Q3 results? | Opening Bell

Union Budget unlikely to be a game-changing event, Expect government to continue with growth focus with fiscal discipline stance, Budget a critical anchor for foreign capital, Don't expect any rate cut from RBI in Feb policy, though inflation subdued currently

* Union Budget unlikely to be a game-changing event
* Expect government to continue with growth focus with fiscal discipline stance
* Budget a critical anchor for foreign capital
* Don't expect any rate cut from RBI in Feb policy, though inflation subdued currently

shorts/business/daily-voice-budget-2026-unlikely-to-be-game-changing-but-a-key-anchor-for-foreign-capital-hdfc-s-varun-lohchab

* Union Budget unlikely to be a game-changing event
* Expect government to continue with growth focus with fiscal discipline stance
* Budget a critical anchor for foreign capital
* Don't expect any rate cut from RBI in Feb policy, though inflation subdued currently

According to Varun Lohchab, the Head of Institutional Research at HDFC Securities, the Union Budget 2026 isn’t expected to be any game-changing event. He expects the government to continue with the stance (of growth focus with fiscal discipline) without taking any radical reformist steps or assuming any significant economic risk incrementally.

Further, he is of the view that the budget is a critical anchor for foreign capital.

In the February policy meeting, Varun is not expecting any rate cut from the RBI, though inflation is subdued currently. He rather expects more liquidity measures asthe  RBI would focus more on the transmission of the rate cuts done in the recent past.

Will the Union Budget 2026 be a game-changing event? What could be the major announcements in the Budget?

In our opinion, the Union budget 2026 isn’t expected to be a game-changing event. In the past few years, the government has been moving ahead on a stated trajectory of growth focus with fiscal discipline. So far, the progress and execution are in line with the stated strategy, hence we expect the government to continue with the same stance without taking any radical reformist steps or assuming any significant economic risk incrementally.

In line with the government policies of AtmaNirbhar Bharat and Make in India, focus on manufacturing and capex is expected to be continued. Railway, renewable power, infrastructure, and defence manufacturing can expect improved budgetary allocations along with some new PLI announcements.

Can it help improve market sentiment, given that markets have remained largely rangebound for more than a year, despite recently hitting a new record high?

Nifty has been range-bound in the past year owing to soft earnings growth and limited valuation upside. We believe higher-than-expected capex allocation, pro-growth policy measures, in line fiscal deficit and favourable income tax stance for consumers have the potential to add optimism to the market in the short run.

However, we believe any durable medium-term strength is still dependent on the earnings growth of corporate India in FY27. As per our assessment, Nifty is expected to deliver high single to low double-digit earnings growth in FY26, with an estimate of 12%+ growth in FY27. Accordingly, this earnings delivery has the potential to create an upside of 5 to 10% in Nifty in the next year.

Do you think the Budget can give confidence to foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to return to the Indian markets?

This upcoming budget is a critical anchor for foreign capital. The Indian economy is expected to deliver nominal GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26, much below the budgetary estimation of 10.1%. However, this is expected to bounce back to 10.1% in FY27. This revival of GDP growth can potentially be a significant driver for attracting foreign flows.

Additionally, budgetary stance on tax stability, regulatory predictability, capex focus, and fiscal discipline are other key parameters which FIIs will be watching out for. A favourable stance of the government on these parameters can act as a catalyst for foreign flows into India.

Do you expect inflation to remain benign this year? If yes, do you see the possibility of at least a 50-basis-point rate cut by the RBI?

While inflation has started inching up from significantly low levels, we don’t expect it to overshoot the upper end of the RBI’s target band of 4-6%. We believe Inflation will remain in the range of 3-4.5% during FY27. Hence, broadly inflation will remain benign in the next financial year despite a low base of FY26.

While inflation is subdued currently, we still don’t expect any rate cut in the February policy. We rather expect more liquidity measures as the RBI would focus more on the transmission of the rate cuts done in the recent past. And, for FY27, we can’t rule out the possibility of a 25 bps cut during the year if inflation remains within a comfortable zone and growth needs further support. However, as per current estimates, a 50 bps cut doesn’t seem to be on the cards.

After reviewing the quarterly provisional business updates and recent Q3 numbers, are you confident about a strong Q3 earnings season?

We expect Q3FY26 results to be moderately healthy, like the previous quarter. At the aggregate level, this growth wouldn’t be very strong yet, while there are signs of bottoming out of few sectors (such as IT and consumers).

Our sector analysis indicates that metals and financials are likely to deliver strong performance in Q3 FY26. In contrast, consumption and IT sectors are expected to post tepid results this quarter, but they appear to be bottoming out. Consequently, these sectors are projected to show relatively stronger performance in FY27 and contribute meaningfully to overall earnings growth.

Do you think rising gold prices are improving India’s balance sheet?

Higher gold prices have supported the RBI’s balance sheet due to revaluation gains and have acted as a buffer against global volatility. The value of India’s gold reserves crossed $100 billion in CY25, which happens to be a strong forex reserve diversification tool as gold’s share in India’s forex reserves has risen to ~16% in January 2026, vis-à-vis ~8% by FY23 end.

However, rising gold prices have increased the probability of redemptions in sovereign gold bonds (SGBs), which adds to the government’s liabilities. It is to be noted that despite increasing liabilities, SGBs have played a crucial role in reducing the import of physical gold in India, which helps contain the current account deficit of the country.

In a summarised way, it can be concluded that despite pushing up the liabilities of SGB redemptions, rising gold prices have contributed towards strengthening India’s balance sheet.

Based on current market trends, do you think we are still not out of the woods? What factors could bring a bullish bias to equity markets?

Currently market is acting as a great leveller. Wherever there is valuation froth without adequate earnings support, that is getting corrected. At the same time, stocks with strong earnings delivery are witnessing appreciation and attracting investors’ capital. We are of the view that the market is expected to continue being earnings-driven in the medium term.

Earnings misses with elevated valuations will be punished, while any strong earnings growth will be rewarded adequately. Hence, strong earnings growth could bring bullish bias to the individual stocks. In this situation, we believe bottom-up stock picking is the most prudent way of investing, and index based or sector approach of investing wouldn’t deliver any meaningful outperformance.

Do you expect the midcap and smallcap indices to enter an uptrend only after the December quarter earnings season?

While through recent consolidation, froth has come out in many segments of the midcap and smallcap space, aggregate valuations remain high. Hence, we believe one should be selective while investing in the SMID space. Post December quarter results, stocks with sustained earnings momentum and stable margins should be preferred as the elevated valuations leave little room for error.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice | Budget 2026 unlikely to be game-changing, but a key anchor for foreign capital: HDFC’s Varun Lohchab

According to Varun Lohchab, the Head of Institutional Research at HDFC Securities, the Union Budget 2026 isn’t expected to be any game-changing event. He expects the government to continue with the stance (of growth focus with fiscal discipline) without taking any radical reformist steps or assuming any significant economic risk incrementally.

Further, he is of the view that the budget is a critical anchor for foreign capital.

In the February policy meeting, Varun is not expecting any rate cut from the RBI, though inflation is subdued currently. He rather expects more liquidity measures asthe  RBI would focus more on the transmission of the rate cuts done in the recent past.

Will the Union Budget 2026 be a game-changing event? What could be the major announcements in the Budget?

In our opinion, the Union budget 2026 isn’t expected to be a game-changing event. In the past few years, the government has been moving ahead on a stated trajectory of growth focus with fiscal discipline. So far, the progress and execution are in line with the stated strategy, hence we expect the government to continue with the same stance without taking any radical reformist steps or assuming any significant economic risk incrementally.

In line with the government policies of AtmaNirbhar Bharat and Make in India, focus on manufacturing and capex is expected to be continued. Railway, renewable power, infrastructure, and defence manufacturing can expect improved budgetary allocations along with some new PLI announcements.

Can it help improve market sentiment, given that markets have remained largely rangebound for more than a year, despite recently hitting a new record high?

Nifty has been range-bound in the past year owing to soft earnings growth and limited valuation upside. We believe higher-than-expected capex allocation, pro-growth policy measures, in line fiscal deficit and favourable income tax stance for consumers have the potential to add optimism to the market in the short run.

However, we believe any durable medium-term strength is still dependent on the earnings growth of corporate India in FY27. As per our assessment, Nifty is expected to deliver high single to low double-digit earnings growth in FY26, with an estimate of 12%+ growth in FY27. Accordingly, this earnings delivery has the potential to create an upside of 5 to 10% in Nifty in the next year.

Do you think the Budget can give confidence to foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to return to the Indian markets?

This upcoming budget is a critical anchor for foreign capital. The Indian economy is expected to deliver nominal GDP growth of 8.5% in FY26, much below the budgetary estimation of 10.1%. However, this is expected to bounce back to 10.1% in FY27. This revival of GDP growth can potentially be a significant driver for attracting foreign flows.

Additionally, budgetary stance on tax stability, regulatory predictability, capex focus, and fiscal discipline are other key parameters which FIIs will be watching out for. A favourable stance of the government on these parameters can act as a catalyst for foreign flows into India.

Do you expect inflation to remain benign this year? If yes, do you see the possibility of at least a 50-basis-point rate cut by the RBI?

While inflation has started inching up from significantly low levels, we don’t expect it to overshoot the upper end of the RBI’s target band of 4-6%. We believe Inflation will remain in the range of 3-4.5% during FY27. Hence, broadly inflation will remain benign in the next financial year despite a low base of FY26.

While inflation is subdued currently, we still don’t expect any rate cut in the February policy. We rather expect more liquidity measures as the RBI would focus more on the transmission of the rate cuts done in the recent past. And, for FY27, we can’t rule out the possibility of a 25 bps cut during the year if inflation remains within a comfortable zone and growth needs further support. However, as per current estimates, a 50 bps cut doesn’t seem to be on the cards.

After reviewing the quarterly provisional business updates and recent Q3 numbers, are you confident about a strong Q3 earnings season?

We expect Q3FY26 results to be moderately healthy, like the previous quarter. At the aggregate level, this growth wouldn’t be very strong yet, while there are signs of bottoming out of few sectors (such as IT and consumers).

Our sector analysis indicates that metals and financials are likely to deliver strong performance in Q3 FY26. In contrast, consumption and IT sectors are expected to post tepid results this quarter, but they appear to be bottoming out. Consequently, these sectors are projected to show relatively stronger performance in FY27 and contribute meaningfully to overall earnings growth.

Do you think rising gold prices are improving India’s balance sheet?

Higher gold prices have supported the RBI’s balance sheet due to revaluation gains and have acted as a buffer against global volatility. The value of India’s gold reserves crossed $100 billion in CY25, which happens to be a strong forex reserve diversification tool as gold’s share in India’s forex reserves has risen to ~16% in January 2026, vis-à-vis ~8% by FY23 end.

However, rising gold prices have increased the probability of redemptions in sovereign gold bonds (SGBs), which adds to the government’s liabilities. It is to be noted that despite increasing liabilities, SGBs have played a crucial role in reducing the import of physical gold in India, which helps contain the current account deficit of the country.

In a summarised way, it can be concluded that despite pushing up the liabilities of SGB redemptions, rising gold prices have contributed towards strengthening India’s balance sheet.

Based on current market trends, do you think we are still not out of the woods? What factors could bring a bullish bias to equity markets?

Currently market is acting as a great leveller. Wherever there is valuation froth without adequate earnings support, that is getting corrected. At the same time, stocks with strong earnings delivery are witnessing appreciation and attracting investors’ capital. We are of the view that the market is expected to continue being earnings-driven in the medium term.

Earnings misses with elevated valuations will be punished, while any strong earnings growth will be rewarded adequately. Hence, strong earnings growth could bring bullish bias to the individual stocks. In this situation, we believe bottom-up stock picking is the most prudent way of investing, and index based or sector approach of investing wouldn’t deliver any meaningful outperformance.

Do you expect the midcap and smallcap indices to enter an uptrend only after the December quarter earnings season?

While through recent consolidation, froth has come out in many segments of the midcap and smallcap space, aggregate valuations remain high. Hence, we believe one should be selective while investing in the SMID space. Post December quarter results, stocks with sustained earnings momentum and stable margins should be preferred as the elevated valuations leave little room for error.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

10 out of 18 years BSE 500 has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	36,747.02	36,843.08	36,925.70	36,664.40	36,568.34	36,485.72	36,389.66
Fibonacci	36,732.65	36,774.82	36,843.08	36,664.40	36,596.14	36,553.97	36,485.72
Camarilla	36,667.35	36,683.73	36,700.11	36,664.40	36,634.59	36,618.21	36,601.83

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