NIFTY SMLCAP 250

Sensex and Nifty slipped after early gains due to profit booking., IT, FMCG, and financial shares led losses amid Fed policy jitters., Rupee weakened as crude prices rose and FIIs continued selling.

* Sensex and Nifty slipped after early gains due to profit booking.
* IT, FMCG, and financial shares led losses amid Fed policy jitters.
* Rupee weakened as crude prices rose and FIIs continued selling.

Sensex and Nifty fell from early highs as investors booked profits after Monday’s rebound. Factors include FII selling, rupee weakness, crude price surge, geopolitical tensions, Fed policy uncertainty, and weekly expiry, leading to increased market volatility.

shorts/business/sensex-falls-over-400-pts-from-day-s-high-nifty-below-23-450-3-key-reasons-behind-market-paring-gains

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty slipped from their day’s high around noon on Tuesday as investors booked profits after Monday’s sharp rebound. The domestic markets had risen more than 1 percent in the previous session following heavy losses in the three trading days earlier. On Monday, the Sensex jumped 938.93 points or 1.26 percent to settle at 75,502.85. The Nifty climbed 257.70 points or 1.11 percent to close at 23,408.80.

In early trade today, the Sensex rose 511.46 points or 0.67 percent to touch a high of 76,014.31. The Nifty also reclaimed the 23,500 mark and hit 23,577.55.

However, the indices trimmed gains later in the session and turned red. At around 11:30 am, the Sensex was down 104.93 points or 0.14 percent at 75,397.92, while the Nifty slipped 16.90 points or 0.07 percent to 23,391.90.

In the broader market, the Nifty Smallcap100 and Nifty Midcap100 indices bucked the trend and were trading up to 0.2 percent higher.

Wipro, Cipla and Bajaj Finance were among the major laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 3 percent, while ETERNAL and Tata Steel gained up to 4 percent. Market breadth was positive as about 2076 shares advanced, 1632 shares declined, and 138 shares unchanged.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Profit booking: Profit booking emerged at higher levels with IT, FMCG and financial shares leading the losses. The IT index was the biggest laggard, declining 0.8 percent ahead of the two-day US Federal Reserve policy meeting.

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the recent market movement reflected uncertainty linked to the ongoing geopolitical tensions. &quot;With total uncertainty and confusion regarding the trend of the war continuing, this uncertainty is getting reflected in the market, too. Even seasoned experts lack conviction to advise investors on the right strategy. All that can be said with conviction now is: remain invested and continue with SIPs. Nifty’s sharp bounce of 257 points yesterday was triggered mainly by short-covering from oversold territory,&quot; he said.

2) Persistent FII selling: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to remain sellers in the domestic market. FIIs sold equities worth Rs 9,365.52 crore on Monday. So far in March, foreign investors have sold shares worth over Rs 66,000 crore and are on course for their highest monthly outflow since January 2025.
Stock Market Live Updates
3) Rupee weakness: The rupee declined 14 paise to trade at 92.42 against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by rising crude oil prices and continued foreign fund outflows. Forex traders said subdued domestic equities and a stronger US currency also pressured the local unit as investors remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 92.35 and slipped further to 92.42 against the dollar.

4) Weekly expiry: Tuesday also marks the weekly expiry of Nifty derivatives contracts. Market participants often adjust or square off positions on expiry days, which tends to increase volatility.

5) Geopolitical concerns: The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has entered its third week, with no immediate signs of easing. Fresh exchanges of fire were reported in parts of West Asia on Tuesday. Such developments typically weigh on global risk sentiment and can trigger cautious trading in equity markets, including India.

6) Higher crude prices: Brent crude was hovering around USD 103 per barrel amid concerns over supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route handling nearly one-fifth of global supply, remains largely shut. Rising oil prices are negative for India, which is heavily dependent on crude imports.

7) Fed policy jitters: The US Federal Reserve began its March 17–18 policy meeting on Tuesday. Markets largely expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.50–3.75 percent, but investors are watching the updated policy projections.

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, said the rise in crude prices could influence inflation expectations. &quot;The surge in crude prices this month is likely to shift the inflation outlook and lead most central banks to hold rates steady at their policy meetings this week,&quot; he said.
Technical outlook
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the Nifty’s initial rebound towards 23,600 unfolded as expected, but momentum could remain limited. He said early moves on Tuesday may lack the strength seen in the previous session after the index retraced part of Monday’s gains towards the close.

According to him, the Nifty may see dips towards 23,276 initially, followed by sideways movement or attempts to move higher, though such advances may struggle to gather momentum.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Markets in red: Sensex falls 600 pts from day's high, Nifty below 23,400: 7 key reasons behind market decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty extended their rise for the second straight session on Tuesday, amid value buying.

At around 10:30 am, the Sensex was up 500.05 points or 0.66 percent at 76,002.91, while the broader Nifty was at 23,571.75, up 164.80 points or 0.7 percent.
Key factors behind market rise
1) Value buying: Value buying was seen for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. Buying was seen in key sectors of auto, metal and realty.

2) Asian shares trade higher: In Asian trading, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 gained 0.4 percent to 53,928.25, and the Kospi in South Korea jumped 2.4 percent to 5,683.61.

3) India Vix declines: The fear gauge or the volatility index declined 6 percent to 20.32 level, indicating lower uncertainity among investors.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex gains 500 pts, Nifty reclaims 23,500: Value buying among key factors behind market rise

Highlights

	World has seen Black Swan events in the past
	The correction so far is nowhere close to the panic levels
	The current challenge could have meaningful impact on corporate earnings depending on the duration and severity of the conflict
	There could be patches of green or days of sharp pullback rallies
	Crisis gives an opportunity to restructure portfolios and add quality at a bargain

As the Iran war continues to strain nerves and an unprecedented energy crisis unfolds, Indian benchmark indices are steadily giving up, albeit patches of occasional green.

While the depth of the fall is unnerving, the question that needs an answer is whether  the markets are done with the correction or is there much more pain in the offing.

As the war is fought in the backdrop of complex geopolitics, the end game is anybody's guess at this stage. But the good news is that the world and the markets have experienced Black Swan events in the past and have survived and come out with flying colours. This too should pass!

How can we view this crisis as an opportunity?

in the West Asia war so far, Nifty’s correction from the top has been close to 12 percent, nowhere comparable to the GFC or COVID crises.



Source: Moneycontrol Research

Should the West Asia war snowball into a global crisis with overt involvement of multiple actors, this could turn out to be just as grave as the previous two events of this century. In both 2009 and 2021, Nifty earnings had a year-on-year decline following the crisis. The level where markets finally bottomed out, earnings yield exceeded bond yields.



Source: Moneycontrol Research

We revisit our time-tested bond yield (yield on 10-year government security) and earnings yield (inverse of forward price to earnings) gap analysis that shows this gap contracting at the bottom and expanding at the peak of the markets. In the case of extreme pessimism, stocks become so cheap that earnings yield exceeds bond yield. This played out at the bottom of the past crisis.



Source: Moneycontrol Research

Using the same logic in the current context of the West Asia war, for earnings yield (on current year’s earnings) to exceed bond yields, Nifty has to fall to 16,150. Markets become so cheap that it’s a no-brainer that equities would be in for a sharp pull-back that justifies altering asset allocation in favour of equities.

However, this is unlikely should the war remains localised in West Asia. A more relevant level to take note, should the war remain protracted and inflict substantial damage to the Indian economy, is a 20 percent correction from the top – Nifty at 21,000, which would take it to the bear market territory.

To make sense of the current challenge, it is important to understand that oil at $100 or more, supply-chain disruption, and monetary tightening could have meaningful impact on corporate earnings depending on the duration and severity of the conflict.

At the market’s recent West Asia War lows (Nifty at 23,151), on current year’s earnings, the gap between bond yield and earnings yield is 2 percent, which is much higher than 1.5 percent — the median of the average gap between the yearly peak and the bottom over the last 18 years. Given other structural challenges like weak consumption momentum, disruptions to employment due to AI, and the lack of FPI interest in India compounded by weak currency, we prefer to be conservative while doing a sensitivity analysis of the likely Nifty range depending on the length of the conflict.

Not only crude, but India also has strong West Asia links through trade and remittances and hence the impact feeds through multiple channels.



Source: Moneycontrol Research

It is important to remember that neither a bull market nor a bear market is a one-way street. There could be patches of green or even days of sharp rally. It is important to use the good days to lighten position in weaker businesses and conserve capital to add high quality businesses as the market capitulates. Amid all the negative developments, the good news is that the crisis gives an opportunity to investors to fundamentally restructure their portfolios and add quality stocks at a bargain.

For more research articles, visit our Moneycontrol Research page

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Have the Indian markets corrected enough after the war jitters?

Crude oil near $100 may push Nifty down 10 percent, warns Emkay, Higher oil prices threaten corporate earnings and macro stability, LPG supply issues may affect industries soon

* Crude oil near $100 may push Nifty down 10 percent, warns Emkay
* Higher oil prices threaten corporate earnings and macro stability
* LPG supply issues may affect industries soon

Emkay warns sustained Gulf tensions may keep oil near $100/barrel, risking a 10% Nifty drop and impacting India’s growth, earnings, and macro stability. Sectors like tech and pharma may be resilient, but oil, utilities, and autos face greater pressure.

shorts/business/nifty-may-fall-another-10-if-oil-stays-elevated-emkay-says

Sustained geopolitical tensions in the Gulf could keep crude oil prices around $100 per barrel for three to four months, posing a further downside risk of about 10 percent to the Nifty index, Emkay said in a recent note.

The brokerage said the Nifty could fall to around 21,000 if oil remains elevated. It warned of a twin impact on corporate earnings through demand destruction and margin pressure from higher input costs, adding that no sector would be immune.

Emkay said the scenario is increasingly likely and could weigh on India’s growth, macro stability and corporate earnings, with LPG shortages posing risks to daily consumption. It also flagged the possibility of second-order effects from a global growth and inflation shock.

Market optimism about an early resolution to the conflict is fading, with September 2026 crude futures rising about 10 percent since March 10. The brokerage said there are no clear signs of de-escalation, though a ceasefire could trigger a correction in oil prices and a rebound in equity markets.

India has limited room to absorb a prolonged rise in oil prices, Emkay said. While the impact on fuel prices may be delayed by six to eight weeks, it is likely to be unavoidable if crude remains above $100 per barrel for an extended period. Over the next three to four months, the burden could be shared between higher pump prices, lower oil marketing company profits and potential tax cuts.

The brokerage estimates that for every month crude remains around $100 per barrel, the current account deficit could widen by 9 to 10 basis points of GDP, inflation could rise by about 50 basis points and oil marketing companies’ profit after tax could decline by around 9 percent.

Its analysis suggests a potential downgrade of about 1.7 percent to Nifty earnings per share, with an additional 1 to 2 percent downside risk from second-order effects. Earnings of small- and mid-cap companies are seen as more vulnerable.

Disruptions in LPG supply due to blockages in the Strait of Hormuz have already affected India’s energy supply chain. Government efforts to divert propane and butane streams toward LPG could boost domestic supply by about 28 percent, although this may create shortages in downstream sectors such as chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

Emkay said domestic cooking gas supply is likely to remain stable, but industrial and wholesale users may face disruptions over the next four to six weeks. It warned that a prolonged conflict could trigger broader stress across financial markets.

While intervention by the Reserve Bank of India has so far limited volatility in currency and bond markets, the brokerage said sustained pressure could lead to a widening current account deficit, capital outflows and tighter liquidity. It sees risks of the rupee weakening to 95 per dollar, the 10-year bond yield rising to 7 percent and a widening in corporate bond spreads.

Despite near-term risks, Emkay said the correction could be temporary. If crude prices ease toward $70 per barrel, the economy and corporate earnings are expected to recover, making the current phase a potential entry opportunity from a one-year perspective.

The brokerage said sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, metals and power could remain relatively resilient, while oil marketing companies, utilities, airlines and automobiles may face greater pressure. It added that banks and non-banking financial companies appear to have been disproportionately impacted and could offer selective opportunities even before oil prices normalize.

Nifty may fall another 10% if oil stays elevated, Emkay says

Relief Rally in Global Markets 🌍 | Oil Cools, Hormuz Tensions | Nifty 23,500 in Focus | Opening Bell

4 out of 8 years NIFTY SMLCAP 250 has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	14,935.17	15,065.63	15,263.82	14,736.98	14,606.52	14,408.33	14,277.87
Fibonacci	14,862.53	14,940.09	15,065.63	14,736.98	14,611.44	14,533.88	14,408.33
Camarilla	14,834.83	14,864.95	14,895.08	14,736.98	14,774.57	14,744.45	14,714.32

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