NIFTY SMLCAP 250

The Nifty 50 convincingly climbed above the double-top resistance around 26,100 and closed just below 26,200 with gains of more than half a percent on November 20, raising hopes of a new record high in the upcoming sessions, supported by strong momentum and technical indicators. The rally was driven by index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank.

The opening straightaway above the double-top resistance signals a strong presence of bulls in the market. If the Nifty 50 sustains above 26,100, the index can easily surpass its record high of 26,277 and march toward the 26,500 zone. However, 26,000 remains an immediate support, followed by 25,800 as the key support zone, according to experts.

After an initial hour of volatility, the Nifty 50 turned strong as the day progressed and hit an intraday high of 26,247 (very close to the record high). It witnessed some profit booking in the last hour of trade before closing at 26,192, up 140 points (0.54 percent), forming a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe—signalling continuation of the uptrend despite volatility.

The index continues to form higher tops and higher bottoms. A fresh bullish crossover on the daily MACD, along with further strength in the histogram, indicates improving momentum, while the RSI jumped to 67.66 while maintaining its bullish crossover.

“Given the constructive chart setup, the Nifty appears well-positioned to register a new record high and move toward the 26,400–26,500 zone in the near term,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking.

According to Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical and Derivative Research at Angel One, the V-shaped recovery has generated robust momentum, suggesting that the prevailing trend is likely to continue.

“The support base seems to have moved up to the 26,100–26,000 sub-zone, which is likely to cushion any near-term shortcomings, while the sacrosanct support is placed around the 25,800 zone from a positional perspective,” he said.

Monthly options data suggests that the Nifty 50 may march toward 26,500 in the short term, supported by the 26,000–25,900 zone. The maximum Call open interest is placed at the 26,500 strike, followed by the 27,000 and 26,200 strikes. The maximum Call writing is seen at the 27,000, 26,700 and 26,250 strikes. Meanwhile, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,900 and 25,500 strikes, with the highest Put writing at the 26,100, 26,200 and 26,150 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty climbed close to 59,500 intraday before ending at a new closing high of 59,348 with gains of 132 points. It formed a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe, continuing its higher-high, higher-low formation and signalling strength despite volatility.

Impressively, the index has hit new record highs in every trading session this week, underscoring strong bullish sentiment in the banking space.

“From a technical perspective, the chart structure remains firmly positive, suggesting that the index is likely to extend its northward journey in the near term. Key upside targets are placed at 59,700, followed by 60,300,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

On the downside, support levels have shifted higher, now positioned in the 59,000–58,900 zone, which is expected to cushion any short-term pullback, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, remained around the short-term moving averages and well below the long-term moving averages, providing comfort for bulls. The VIX rose 1.36 percent to the 12.14 zone.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Technical View: Nifty on track for a record high if it sustains 26,100; Bank Nifty approaches 59,500 with strong momentum

The Nifty 50 convincingly climbed above the double-top resistance around 26,100 and closed just below 26,200 with gains of more than half a percent on November 20, raising hopes of a new record high in the upcoming sessions, supported by strong momentum and technical indicators. The rally was driven by index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank.

The opening straightaway above the double-top resistance signals a strong presence of bulls in the market. If the Nifty 50 sustains above 26,100, the index can easily surpass its record high of 26,277 and march toward the 26,500 zone. However, 26,000 remains an immediate support, followed by 25,800 as the key support zone, according to experts.

After an initial hour of volatility, the Nifty 50 turned strong as the day progressed and hit an intraday high of 26,247 (very close to the record high). It witnessed some profit booking in the last hour of trade before closing at 26,192, up 140 points (0.54 percent), forming a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe—signalling continuation of the uptrend despite volatility.

The index continues to form higher tops and higher bottoms. A fresh bullish crossover on the daily MACD, along with further strength in the histogram, indicates improving momentum, while the RSI jumped to 67.66 while maintaining its bullish crossover.

“Given the constructive chart setup, the Nifty appears well-positioned to register a new record high and move toward the 26,400–26,500 zone in the near term,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking.

According to Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical and Derivative Research at Angel One, the V-shaped recovery has generated robust momentum, suggesting that the prevailing trend is likely to continue.

“The support base seems to have moved up to the 26,100–26,000 sub-zone, which is likely to cushion any near-term shortcomings, while the sacrosanct support is placed around the 25,800 zone from a positional perspective,” he said.

Monthly options data suggests that the Nifty 50 may march toward 26,500 in the short term, supported by the 26,000–25,900 zone. The maximum Call open interest is placed at the 26,500 strike, followed by the 27,000 and 26,200 strikes. The maximum Call writing is seen at the 27,000, 26,700 and 26,250 strikes. Meanwhile, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,900 and 25,500 strikes, with the highest Put writing at the 26,100, 26,200 and 26,150 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty climbed close to 59,500 intraday before ending at a new closing high of 59,348 with gains of 132 points. It formed a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe, continuing its higher-high, higher-low formation and signalling strength despite volatility.

Impressively, the index has hit new record highs in every trading session this week, underscoring strong bullish sentiment in the banking space.

“From a technical perspective, the chart structure remains firmly positive, suggesting that the index is likely to extend its northward journey in the near term. Key upside targets are placed at 59,700, followed by 60,300,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

On the downside, support levels have shifted higher, now positioned in the 59,000–58,900 zone, which is expected to cushion any short-term pullback, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, remained around the short-term moving averages and well below the long-term moving averages, providing comfort for bulls. The VIX rose 1.36 percent to the 12.14 zone.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

The Indian benchmark indices extended the winning run on second consecutive session on November 20, with Nifty crossing 26,200 for the first time since September 2024 led by <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/nvidia-gives-strong-forecast-countering-fears-of-ai-bubble-13687070.html">Nvidia’s stellar earnings and stronger sales guidance for Q4</a>.

On the back of rising optimism over a potential India–US trade deal, the Indian market opened on a strong note and with extended buying Nifty touched day's high of 26,246.65, which is 30 points away from the record high of 26,277.35, touched on September 27, 2024.

At close, the Sensex was up 446.21 points or 0.52 percent at 85,632.68, and the Nifty was up 139.50 points or 0.54 percent at 26,192.15.

Broader indices underperformed the main indices with BSE Midcap and smallcap indices ending marginally lower.

Nifty Bank continued hitting fresh record high on the fourth consecutive session. The index touched new high of 59,440.10, finishing 0.22% higher at 59,347.70.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/groww-vs-angel-one-which-broking-firm-s-shares-should-you-buy-here-s-how-they-stack-up-13686254.html">Groww vs Angel One: Which broking firm's shares should you buy? Here's how they stack up</a>

On the sectoral front, auto, capital goods, oil &amp; gas, private bank, energy up 0.2-0.6%, while consumer durable, media, PSU Bank down 0.3-1.5 percent.

Eicher Motors, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, Titan Company, Apollo Hospitals and Tata Steel.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/technology/how-indian-msmes-can-power-the-global-chip-supply-chain-article-13687881.html">How Indian MSMEs can power the global chip supply chain</a>

In stock-specific action, NBCC (India) share price rose 2.5% on bagging order worth Rs 2,966.1 crore, Va Tech Wabag shares gained on order from Melamchi Water Supply Development Board, ACME Solar shares rose on commissioning second phase of additional 16 MW of its 100 MW wind power project in Gujarat, Mahindra Holidays rose 2.7% on entering ‘leisure hospitality’ business segment,

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/infosys-buyback-opens-today-8-smart-checks-before-you-tender-shares-eligibility-tax-rules-and-more-13685852.html">Infosys buyback opens today: 8 smart checks before you tender shares; eligibility, tax rules and more</a>

More than 140 stocks touched their 52-week high on the BSE, including M&amp;M Financial, Radico Khaitan, Hitachi Energy, Chennai Petro, Hero MotoCorp, MCX India, Axis Bank, SBI Life Insurance, Bharti Airtel, SBI, Titan Company, PNB, Bharat Forge, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/bsehigh/index.php">Click to View More</a>

On the other hand, more than 180 stocks hit 52-week low, including KNR Construction, Page Industries, United Breweries, Nitco, Man Infra, Fischer Medical, Orient Cement, United Foodbrands, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/bselow/index.php">Click to View More</a>

Outlook for November 21

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities

On Thursday, the benchmark index Nifty continued its upward trajectory and registered its highest closing level since September 2024, reinforcing bullish sentiment in the market. On the daily chart, the index formed a strong bullish candle with shadows on both ends, signalling ongoing volatility but a clear positive bias.

Going ahead, the index is expected to maintain its upward bias and could test 26350, followed by 26500 in the short term. On the downside, support has shifted higher to the 26050–26000 zone, which is likely to act as a cushion for any pullback.

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager -Technical and Derivative research at Angel One

The Indian equity markets commenced the trading session on a strong note, bolstered by positive global developments and the prevailing momentum within domestic markets from the previous session. The benchmark index exhibited robust momentum, achieving significant gains and registering record highs for the calendar year. Ultimately, the Nifty50 index concluded the day on an optimistic note, positioned just below its all-time high at the 26190 level, reflecting a gain of 0.54 percent for the day.

The substantial contribution of heavyweight counters like RIL and HDFC Bank has significantly influenced the ongoing market rally, fostering optimism among market participants. From a technical standpoint, the V-shaped recovery generated robust momentum, suggesting the prevailing trend to continue. Furthermore, with broader participation across the board, the near-term market outlook appears decisively bullish. On the levels front, the support base seems to have moved up to the 26100-26000 subzone, which is likely to cushion any near-term shortcomings, while the sacrosanct support is placed around the 25800 zone from a positional perspective.

On the higher end, with the recent closure, the lifetime high of 26277 is likely to act as psychological resistance, and a breakthrough could pave the way for 26500 in the near future.

As we progress, the prevailing sentiment remains strong, supporting the strategy of purchasing during market dips, which has historically demonstrated its effectiveness. Furthermore, given the current sectoral rotation, it is essential to exercise caution in stock selection while maintaining a bullish outlook on the markets.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Taking Stock: Nifty crosses 26,200 for the first time since Sept 2024; Sensex up 446 pts

The Indian benchmark indices extended the winning run on second consecutive session on November 20, with Nifty crossing 26,200 for the first time since September 2024 led by Nvidia’s stellar earnings and stronger sales guidance for Q4.

On the back of rising optimism over a potential India–US trade deal, the Indian market opened on a strong note and with extended buying Nifty touched day's high of 26,246.65, which is 30 points away from the record high of 26,277.35, touched on September 27, 2024.

At close, the Sensex was up 446.21 points or 0.52 percent at 85,632.68, and the Nifty was up 139.50 points or 0.54 percent at 26,192.15.

Broader indices underperformed the main indices with BSE Midcap and smallcap indices ending marginally lower.

Nifty Bank continued hitting fresh record high on the fourth consecutive session. The index touched new high of 59,440.10, finishing 0.22% higher at 59,347.70.

Also Read: Groww vs Angel One: Which broking firm's shares should you buy? Here's how they stack up

On the sectoral front, auto, capital goods, oil &amp;amp; gas, private bank, energy up 0.2-0.6%, while consumer durable, media, PSU Bank down 0.3-1.5 percent.

Eicher Motors, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries, Tech Mahindra were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, Titan Company, Apollo Hospitals and Tata Steel.

Also Read: How Indian MSMEs can power the global chip supply chain

In stock-specific action, NBCC (India) share price rose 2.5% on bagging order worth Rs 2,966.1 crore, Va Tech Wabag shares gained on order from Melamchi Water Supply Development Board, ACME Solar shares rose on commissioning second phase of additional 16 MW of its 100 MW wind power project in Gujarat, Mahindra Holidays rose 2.7% on entering ‘leisure hospitality’ business segment,

Also Read - Infosys buyback opens today: 8 smart checks before you tender shares; eligibility, tax rules and more

More than 140 stocks touched their 52-week high on the BSE, including M&amp;amp;M Financial, Radico Khaitan, Hitachi Energy, Chennai Petro, Hero MotoCorp, MCX India, Axis Bank, SBI Life Insurance, Bharti Airtel, SBI, Titan Company, PNB, Bharat Forge, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, among others. Click to View More

On the other hand, more than 180 stocks hit 52-week low, including KNR Construction, Page Industries, United Breweries, Nitco, Man Infra, Fischer Medical, Orient Cement, United Foodbrands, among others. Click to View More

Outlook for November 21

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities

On Thursday, the benchmark index Nifty continued its upward trajectory and registered its highest closing level since September 2024, reinforcing bullish sentiment in the market. On the daily chart, the index formed a strong bullish candle with shadows on both ends, signalling ongoing volatility but a clear positive bias.

Going ahead, the index is expected to maintain its upward bias and could test 26350, followed by 26500 in the short term. On the downside, support has shifted higher to the 26050–26000 zone, which is likely to act as a cushion for any pullback.

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager -Technical and Derivative research at Angel One

The Indian equity markets commenced the trading session on a strong note, bolstered by positive global developments and the prevailing momentum within domestic markets from the previous session. The benchmark index exhibited robust momentum, achieving significant gains and registering record highs for the calendar year. Ultimately, the Nifty50 index concluded the day on an optimistic note, positioned just below its all-time high at the 26190 level, reflecting a gain of 0.54 percent for the day.

The substantial contribution of heavyweight counters like RIL and HDFC Bank has significantly influenced the ongoing market rally, fostering optimism among market participants. From a technical standpoint, the V-shaped recovery generated robust momentum, suggesting the prevailing trend to continue. Furthermore, with broader participation across the board, the near-term market outlook appears decisively bullish. On the levels front, the support base seems to have moved up to the 26100-26000 subzone, which is likely to cushion any near-term shortcomings, while the sacrosanct support is placed around the 25800 zone from a positional perspective.

On the higher end, with the recent closure, the lifetime high of 26277 is likely to act as psychological resistance, and a breakthrough could pave the way for 26500 in the near future.

As we progress, the prevailing sentiment remains strong, supporting the strategy of purchasing during market dips, which has historically demonstrated its effectiveness. Furthermore, given the current sectoral rotation, it is essential to exercise caution in stock selection while maintaining a bullish outlook on the markets.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

After a soft start, Nifty and Sensex steadily climbed through the day, with gains accelerating post-noon on November 20, echoing strong cues from global markets in a positive, upward-trending session with sustained buying interest.

At close, the <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/sensex-4.html">Sensex</a> was up 446.21 points or 0.52 percent at 85,632.68, and the Nifty was up 139.50 points or 0.54 percent at 26,192.15. About 1759 shares advanced, 2221 shares declined, and 165 shares unchanged.

In trade today, the Nifty 50 briefly approached the 26,250 zone, just shy of its all-time high, before settling slightly lower, under the 26,200 mark but still firmly in the green. The Nifty 50 topped the 26,200 for the first time in 14 months.

Further, the Bank Nifty index also recorded a fresh lifetime high at 59,440.10, with HDFC Bank and Axis Bank powering the gains.

Sectoral trends were mixed, with most major indices ending in the green while a few pockets lagged. Financials outperformed, with Nifty Financial Services rising the most at 0.72 percent, followed by gains in Oil &amp; Gas (0.59 percent), Auto (0.44 percent) and Private Bank (0.34 percent). FMCG, IT and Realty saw only marginal moves.

On the downside, Media was the biggest loser with a 1.56 percent drop, while Consumer Durables, Pharma and Healthcare also ended slightly lower. Overall, the market breadth leaned positive despite selective sectoral pressure.

"The bullish trend in the market is likely to sustain aided by positive triggers. At the fundamental level the picture of ‘strong macros but weak micros’ at the beginning of the year is changing to ‘ strong macros and improving micros’. This fundamental support is aided by the change in perception towards India by leading global banks who now consider India fairly valued and buyable in the context of a resilient economy and improving corporate earnings," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

He added that the weakening AI trade is another positive for India which can be regarded as an anti-AI trade. FIIs turning buyers in the cash market yesterday is a reflection of this changing perception towards India.

"In the market, this is likely to manifest in preference for and outperformance of largecaps, particularly over small caps whose valuations are hard to justify even after the correction. Bank Nifty, despite the recent run up, has more room to rally since fundamentals and valuations are supportive."

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty nears record high as markets climb steadily on global cues, Bank Nifty hits fresh lifetime high

After a soft start, Nifty and Sensex steadily climbed through the day, with gains accelerating post-noon on November 20, echoing strong cues from global markets in a positive, upward-trending session with sustained buying interest.

At close, the Sensex was up 446.21 points or 0.52 percent at 85,632.68, and the Nifty was up 139.50 points or 0.54 percent at 26,192.15. About 1759 shares advanced, 2221 shares declined, and 165 shares unchanged.

In trade today, the Nifty 50 briefly approached the 26,250 zone, just shy of its all-time high, before settling slightly lower, under the 26,200 mark but still firmly in the green. The Nifty 50 topped the 26,200 for the first time in 14 months.

Further, the Bank Nifty index also recorded a fresh lifetime high at 59,440.10, with HDFC Bank and Axis Bank powering the gains.

Sectoral trends were mixed, with most major indices ending in the green while a few pockets lagged. Financials outperformed, with Nifty Financial Services rising the most at 0.72 percent, followed by gains in Oil &amp;amp; Gas (0.59 percent), Auto (0.44 percent) and Private Bank (0.34 percent). FMCG, IT and Realty saw only marginal moves.

On the downside, Media was the biggest loser with a 1.56 percent drop, while Consumer Durables, Pharma and Healthcare also ended slightly lower. Overall, the market breadth leaned positive despite selective sectoral pressure.

&quot;The bullish trend in the market is likely to sustain aided by positive triggers. At the fundamental level the picture of ‘strong macros but weak micros’ at the beginning of the year is changing to ‘ strong macros and improving micros’. This fundamental support is aided by the change in perception towards India by leading global banks who now consider India fairly valued and buyable in the context of a resilient economy and improving corporate earnings,&quot; said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

He added that the weakening AI trade is another positive for India which can be regarded as an anti-AI trade. FIIs turning buyers in the cash market yesterday is a reflection of this changing perception towards India.

&quot;In the market, this is likely to manifest in preference for and outperformance of largecaps, particularly over small caps whose valuations are hard to justify even after the correction. Bank Nifty, despite the recent run up, has more room to rally since fundamentals and valuations are supportive.&quot;

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty Sprints Towards Record High of 26,277; Bank Nifty Hits Fresh Peak | Closing Bell Live

After a year of relentless outflows, foreign institutional investors might return to the Indian markets in 2026, as several catalysts signal a turnaround for Dalal Street in the year ahead. An increase in growth, both economic and earnings, coupled with an easing monetary policy and rising likelihood of a trade deal are likely to bring foreign inflows back to domestic equities.

According to recent commentary, a large portion of the recent FPI outflow is a result of India’s limited pure-AI plays and geopolitical risks, However, according to an analysis by Elara Securities, 15 years of data shows nominal GDP growth is the strongest driver of FPI appetite.

"Our analysis suggests that the single most important factor impacting FPI appetite in Indian equity markets is nominal growth," emphasized the analysts at the brokerage. Five peak-to-trough FPI cycles since 2010 closely track India’s nominal GDP cycles.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13687807" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/11/20251120071426_zoya-201125.jpg" alt="a" width="1280" height="675" />

&nbsp;

On the currency front, Elara noted that a weak USD or US rate cuts boost flows only when nominal growth is strong and/or India’s relative P/E is below 1.6x versus EM peers.

When nominal growth falls below the long-term 12 percent average, inflows come only if valuations are under 1.6x. In the past 15 years, FPIs have meaningfully bought India at P/E multiples above 1.6x only once.

This signals that Indian equities can command a higher premium only when growth is robust, especially when compared with its peers. India’s robust growth outlook versus peers was one of the key factors that made Indian equities attractive up until Covid-19.

In the past two years, sluggish growth underpinned by lower public capex (due to elections) and tighter financial conditions dented India’s growth advantage versus EM peers, lowering appeal of Indian equities to FIIs.

As such, a turn in domestic growth dynamics should aid FPI inflows as valuations have turned less expensive and outlook for USD (DXY Index) remains benign. "We expect India’s growth drivers to turn incrementally supportive, with nominal GDP growth expected to recover to 10 percent in FY27 from ~8 percent in FY26. The real GDP would however be 7 percent for both years," said the report.
<h1>Positive outlook for India ahead</h1>
But the outlook for the year ahead is positive. Here's a look at the key factors that could drive foreign capital back to India.

India’s policy backdrop has turned growth supportive. Fiscal measures like personal income tax and GST cuts are lifting demand, with early Q3 data showing stronger consumer spending. Public capex at both the Centre and states is also gaining momentum.

A trade deal with the US looks increasingly likely in 2025. If Russia-related tariffs are rolled back, India’s effective tariff rate could fall sharply from the current 32–33 percent to around 17–18 percent, and even lower if IEEPA tariffs are fully withdrawn. Our base case assumes an effective rate of about 9–10 percent.

Monetary conditions are easing. The US Fed has resumed rate cuts, pulling down yields and keeping the dollar stable, creating room for emerging markets to loosen policy. With domestic inflation benign, the RBI has space for up to 50 basis points of cuts over the next two meetings in FY26.

Corporate earnings are improving. This quarter marks the start of a new upcycle, with PAT expected to rise 12.5 percent year-on-year — the first double-digit print in six quarters. Results so far show sales up 8 percent, EBITDA up 15 percent and PAT up 16 percent, with roughly two companies beating estimates for every miss.
<h1>Financials, SMIDs to lead gains</h1>
When FIIs' capital is routed towards India, the banking and financial services pack is set to gain. Elara noted that an analysis of trough-to-peak fund flow FPI cycles shows that financials have led the sectoral fund flow in every cycle.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13687811" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/11/20251120071433_zoya-2011253.jpg" alt="a" width="1280" height="612" />

This amid a robust recovery in domestic demand dynamics owing to GST rate cuts, income tax rebate and easing inflation has led some banks such as SBI to revise its guidance from 11-12 percent to 12-14 percent for FY26 credit growth.

Elara conducted an analysis on fund flows into large-, mid-, and small-cap funds, which has indicated that the recovery in growth has been more strongly correlated with inflows into mid- and small-cap funds than into large-caps, reflecting a higher risk appetite in these segments. Large-caps, by contrast, have remained more resilient to slowing global cycles.

"With nominal growth showing signs of bottoming out, the recovery in nominal GDP growth hereon along with a likelihood of lower policy uncertainty amid impending India-US trade deal," said the brokerage, "supportive global financial conditions led by rate cuts from major global central banks and supportive oil/USD increases our near-term bias for SMIDs."

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

is a Senior Correspondent, writing on the markets, financial institutions, regulatory changes and everything else in between.

Revival signs point to FPI comeback in 2026 amid improving growth and easier policy

After a year of relentless outflows, foreign institutional investors might return to the Indian markets in 2026, as several catalysts signal a turnaround for Dalal Street in the year ahead. An increase in growth, both economic and earnings, coupled with an easing monetary policy and rising likelihood of a trade deal are likely to bring foreign inflows back to domestic equities.

According to recent commentary, a large portion of the recent FPI outflow is a result of India’s limited pure-AI plays and geopolitical risks, However, according to an analysis by Elara Securities, 15 years of data shows nominal GDP growth is the strongest driver of FPI appetite.

&quot;Our analysis suggests that the single most important factor impacting FPI appetite in Indian equity markets is nominal growth,&quot; emphasized the analysts at the brokerage. Five peak-to-trough FPI cycles since 2010 closely track India’s nominal GDP cycles.



&amp;nbsp;

On the currency front, Elara noted that a weak USD or US rate cuts boost flows only when nominal growth is strong and/or India’s relative P/E is below 1.6x versus EM peers.

When nominal growth falls below the long-term 12 percent average, inflows come only if valuations are under 1.6x. In the past 15 years, FPIs have meaningfully bought India at P/E multiples above 1.6x only once.

This signals that Indian equities can command a higher premium only when growth is robust, especially when compared with its peers. India’s robust growth outlook versus peers was one of the key factors that made Indian equities attractive up until Covid-19.

In the past two years, sluggish growth underpinned by lower public capex (due to elections) and tighter financial conditions dented India’s growth advantage versus EM peers, lowering appeal of Indian equities to FIIs.

As such, a turn in domestic growth dynamics should aid FPI inflows as valuations have turned less expensive and outlook for USD (DXY Index) remains benign. &quot;We expect India’s growth drivers to turn incrementally supportive, with nominal GDP growth expected to recover to 10 percent in FY27 from ~8 percent in FY26. The real GDP would however be 7 percent for both years,&quot; said the report.
Positive outlook for India ahead
But the outlook for the year ahead is positive. Here's a look at the key factors that could drive foreign capital back to India.

India’s policy backdrop has turned growth supportive. Fiscal measures like personal income tax and GST cuts are lifting demand, with early Q3 data showing stronger consumer spending. Public capex at both the Centre and states is also gaining momentum.

A trade deal with the US looks increasingly likely in 2025. If Russia-related tariffs are rolled back, India’s effective tariff rate could fall sharply from the current 32–33 percent to around 17–18 percent, and even lower if IEEPA tariffs are fully withdrawn. Our base case assumes an effective rate of about 9–10 percent.

Monetary conditions are easing. The US Fed has resumed rate cuts, pulling down yields and keeping the dollar stable, creating room for emerging markets to loosen policy. With domestic inflation benign, the RBI has space for up to 50 basis points of cuts over the next two meetings in FY26.

Corporate earnings are improving. This quarter marks the start of a new upcycle, with PAT expected to rise 12.5 percent year-on-year — the first double-digit print in six quarters. Results so far show sales up 8 percent, EBITDA up 15 percent and PAT up 16 percent, with roughly two companies beating estimates for every miss.
Financials, SMIDs to lead gains
When FIIs' capital is routed towards India, the banking and financial services pack is set to gain. Elara noted that an analysis of trough-to-peak fund flow FPI cycles shows that financials have led the sectoral fund flow in every cycle.



This amid a robust recovery in domestic demand dynamics owing to GST rate cuts, income tax rebate and easing inflation has led some banks such as SBI to revise its guidance from 11-12 percent to 12-14 percent for FY26 credit growth.

Elara conducted an analysis on fund flows into large-, mid-, and small-cap funds, which has indicated that the recovery in growth has been more strongly correlated with inflows into mid- and small-cap funds than into large-caps, reflecting a higher risk appetite in these segments. Large-caps, by contrast, have remained more resilient to slowing global cycles.

&quot;With nominal growth showing signs of bottoming out, the recovery in nominal GDP growth hereon along with a likelihood of lower policy uncertainty amid impending India-US trade deal,&quot; said the brokerage, &quot;supportive global financial conditions led by rate cuts from major global central banks and supportive oil/USD increases our near-term bias for SMIDs.&quot;

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

4 out of 7 years NIFTY SMLCAP 250 has given positive returns in November.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	17,012.63	17,074.47	17,114.68	16,972.42	16,910.58	16,870.37	16,808.53
Fibonacci	17,011.40	17,035.48	17,074.47	16,972.42	16,933.43	16,909.35	16,870.37
Camarilla	16,960.15	16,969.51	16,978.86	16,972.42	16,941.45	16,932.09	16,922.74

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