NIFTY SMLCAP 250

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Use of Artificial Intelligence

US AI stocks pull back, markets in risk on mode again. Can bulls take Nifty back to all time highs?

DIIs now hold more Nifty50 than FIIs for the first time, marking a shift, DII ownership in Nifty50 rose to 24.8 percent, surpassing FIIs at 24.3 percent, SIP inflows and pension funds boosted DII dominance in Indian equities.

* DIIs now hold more Nifty50 than FIIs for the first time, marking a shift
* DII ownership in Nifty50 rose to 24.8 percent, surpassing FIIs at 24.3 percent
* SIP inflows and pension funds boosted DII dominance in Indian equities.

Domestic institutional investors now hold more of India’s Nifty50 index than foreign investors for the first time, marking a structural shift driven by strong domestic inflows and persistent foreign selling amid global volatility and trade uncertainties.

shorts/business/diis-overtake-fiis-in-nifty50-ownership-for-the-first-time

* DIIs now hold more Nifty50 than FIIs for the first time, marking a shift
* DII ownership in Nifty50 rose to 24.8 percent, surpassing FIIs at 24.3 percent
* SIP inflows and pension funds boosted DII dominance in Indian equities.

Domestic institutional investors have overtaken foreign institutional investors in ownership of India’s benchmark Nifty50 index for the first time, signalling a structural shift in market participation amid persistent foreign selling driven by global trade uncertainties and heightened volatility.

As of the December 2025 quarter, DIIs held about 24.8 percent of the Nifty50, marginally higher than FIIs, whose ownership declined to around 24.3 percent, an eight-quarter low, according to data from Motilal Oswal Securities. While DIIs had earlier surpassed FIIs in overall equity ownership, they had continued to trail foreign investors within the Nifty50 index until now.

Naveen Vyas, Senior Vice President at Anand Rathi Global Finance, said the development represents a structural shift rather than a cyclical trend. He said the transition has been supported by strong incremental SIP inflows of Rs3.34 lakh crore in calendar year 2025, increased participation from pension funds in equities, and the launch of new asset management companies in India, all of which are strengthening the domestic institutional ecosystem.

In contrast, FIIs have been gradually reducing their exposure to Indian equities due to a weakening rupee and relatively more attractive return opportunities in other global markets. Over the past five years, the growing influence of DIIs has played a crucial role in supporting the market, enabling the Nifty to deliver absolute returns of around 72 to 75 percent despite cumulative FII selling of nearly Rs 9.96 lakh crore.

FII holdings in the Nifty50 declined by 90 basis points year-on-year and 20 basis points quarter-on-quarter, while DII ownership rose to an all-time high, increasing by 170 basis points year-on-year and 30 basis points sequentially. The divergence in positioning was broad-based, with FIIs reducing their holdings in nearly 78 percent of Nifty50 constituents during the quarter, while DIIs increased their stakes in about 82 percent of the index companies.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13817752" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260209021350_diii.jpeg" alt="diii" width="700" height="700" />

In value terms, assets under custody for DIIs stood at around $24.8 billion, edging past FII holdings of approximately $24.3 billion.

Ashwini Shami, President and Chief Portfolio Manager at OmniScience Capital, said DII dominance is largely sustainable, though not unconditional. He said that even during a market correction, domestic flows are likely to moderate rather than reverse, given the long-term nature of SIPs, EPFO, and insurance allocations.

At the stock level, DII ownership rose the most on a year-on-year basis, by more than four percentage points, in Eternal, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, InterGlobe Aviation, Trent, Max Healthcare Institute, Shriram Finance, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, and Tata Consumer Products.

In contrast, FIIs increased their year-on-year holdings in select companies, including Bharti Airtel, Eicher Motors, Grasim Industries, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Hindalco Industries, Maruti Suzuki India, Wipro, and InterGlobe Aviation.

Gaurav Bhandari, CEO of Monarch Networth Capital, said that while global risk aversion has temporarily reduced FII participation, the fact that DIIs are now dominant even in the most liquid and widely tracked index reflects a deepening of India’s domestic capital base rather than a short-term anomaly.

DIIs overtake FIIs in Nifty50 ownership for the first time

FIIs have been gradually reducing their exposure to Indian equities due to a weakening rupee and relatively more attractive return opportunities in other global markets.

Domestic institutional investors have overtaken foreign institutional investors in ownership of India’s benchmark Nifty50 index for the first time, signalling a structural shift in market participation amid persistent foreign selling driven by global trade uncertainties and heightened volatility.

As of the December 2025 quarter, DIIs held about 24.8 percent of the Nifty50, marginally higher than FIIs, whose ownership declined to around 24.3 percent, an eight-quarter low, according to data from Motilal Oswal Securities. While DIIs had earlier surpassed FIIs in overall equity ownership, they had continued to trail foreign investors within the Nifty50 index until now.

Naveen Vyas, Senior Vice President at Anand Rathi Global Finance, said the development represents a structural shift rather than a cyclical trend. He said the transition has been supported by strong incremental SIP inflows of Rs3.34 lakh crore in calendar year 2025, increased participation from pension funds in equities, and the launch of new asset management companies in India, all of which are strengthening the domestic institutional ecosystem.

In contrast, FIIs have been gradually reducing their exposure to Indian equities due to a weakening rupee and relatively more attractive return opportunities in other global markets. Over the past five years, the growing influence of DIIs has played a crucial role in supporting the market, enabling the Nifty to deliver absolute returns of around 72 to 75 percent despite cumulative FII selling of nearly Rs 9.96 lakh crore.

FII holdings in the Nifty50 declined by 90 basis points year-on-year and 20 basis points quarter-on-quarter, while DII ownership rose to an all-time high, increasing by 170 basis points year-on-year and 30 basis points sequentially. The divergence in positioning was broad-based, with FIIs reducing their holdings in nearly 78 percent of Nifty50 constituents during the quarter, while DIIs increased their stakes in about 82 percent of the index companies.



In value terms, assets under custody for DIIs stood at around $24.8 billion, edging past FII holdings of approximately $24.3 billion.

Ashwini Shami, President and Chief Portfolio Manager at OmniScience Capital, said DII dominance is largely sustainable, though not unconditional. He said that even during a market correction, domestic flows are likely to moderate rather than reverse, given the long-term nature of SIPs, EPFO, and insurance allocations.

At the stock level, DII ownership rose the most on a year-on-year basis, by more than four percentage points, in Eternal, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, InterGlobe Aviation, Trent, Max Healthcare Institute, Shriram Finance, Axis Bank, Bajaj Auto, and Tata Consumer Products.

In contrast, FIIs increased their year-on-year holdings in select companies, including Bharti Airtel, Eicher Motors, Grasim Industries, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Hindalco Industries, Maruti Suzuki India, Wipro, and InterGlobe Aviation.

Gaurav Bhandari, CEO of Monarch Networth Capital, said that while global risk aversion has temporarily reduced FII participation, the fact that DIIs are now dominant even in the most liquid and widely tracked index reflects a deepening of India’s domestic capital base rather than a short-term anomaly.

Benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex are likely to see a gap-up opening in trade on February 9, as India and the U.S. secure their trade agreement.  Washington trimmed its tariff rate on Indian products from 50 percent to 18 percent.

The India-US trade pact has removed a key overhang, improved export visibility, and triggered a revival in foreign investor interest, noted experts.

At 7.20 am, the GIFT Nifty index was quoting 25,930, higher by 232.5 points or 0.90 percent in trade.

Among key stocks, auto ancillaries, textile firms, and fisheries will be in focus today, as they are set to see a significant boost.

Electronics exports remain largely unaffected, having benefited from exemptions even under prior tariff regimes. “Incremental beneficiaries from improved clarity include diamonds &amp; jewellery, textiles, machinery, chemicals and automobiles, where tariff reductions materially enhance competitiveness,” said JM Financial. Pharmaceuticals and aircraft components continue to enjoy near-zero duty access

Further, state-run financiers REC and PFC will be in focus, after the boards of the companies accorded in-principle approval for restructuring, in the form of a merger with each other, while ensuring that the merged entity remains a ‘Government Company’.

“Easing concerns over a potential US-Iran conflict, robust domestic institutional inflows, a stabilising rupee and sustained traction in Budget-led capex themes are adding to the positive momentum,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

On the technical front, Nifty’s immediate support is placed near 25,500, aligning with recent swing lows, while 25,800 acts as immediate resistance, coinciding with a heavy call-writing zone. A stronger resistance lies in the 25,900-26,000 band, marked by psychological significance and prior supply.

Overall, the sentiment has turned constructive, with markets now focusing on the durability of FII inflows and early signs of a recovery in export-oriented sectors.

Nifty, Sensex likely to see gap-up open following India-US trade deal announcement

The India-US trade pact has removed a key overhang, improved export visibility, and triggered a revival in foreign investor interest, noted experts.

Benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex are likely to see a gap-up opening in trade on February 9, as India and the U.S. secure their trade agreement.  Washington trimmed its tariff rate on Indian products from 50 percent to 18 percent.

The India-US trade pact has removed a key overhang, improved export visibility, and triggered a revival in foreign investor interest, noted experts.

At 7.20 am, the GIFT Nifty index was quoting 25,930, higher by 232.5 points or 0.90 percent in trade.

Among key stocks, auto ancillaries, textile firms, and fisheries will be in focus today, as they are set to see a significant boost.

Electronics exports remain largely unaffected, having benefited from exemptions even under prior tariff regimes. “Incremental beneficiaries from improved clarity include diamonds &amp;amp; jewellery, textiles, machinery, chemicals and automobiles, where tariff reductions materially enhance competitiveness,” said JM Financial. Pharmaceuticals and aircraft components continue to enjoy near-zero duty access

Further, state-run financiers REC and PFC will be in focus, after the boards of the companies accorded in-principle approval for restructuring, in the form of a merger with each other, while ensuring that the merged entity remains a ‘Government Company’.

“Easing concerns over a potential US-Iran conflict, robust domestic institutional inflows, a stabilising rupee and sustained traction in Budget-led capex themes are adding to the positive momentum,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

On the technical front, Nifty’s immediate support is placed near 25,500, aligning with recent swing lows, while 25,800 acts as immediate resistance, coinciding with a heavy call-writing zone. A stronger resistance lies in the 25,900-26,000 band, marked by psychological significance and prior supply.

Overall, the sentiment has turned constructive, with markets now focusing on the durability of FII inflows and early signs of a recovery in export-oriented sectors.

Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty are expected to begin February 9 with gap-up, following gains in GIFT Nifty, which was trading around 25,940.50.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

Indian equity indices erased part of the previous session’s losses in a volatile session on February 6, with the Nifty trading near 25,700 after the central bank’s policy decision came in line with expectations.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India decided unanimously to maintain status quo on the repo rate at 5.25% on February 6 and retained stance at neutral.

At close, the Sensex was up 266.47 points or 0.32 percent at 83,580.40, and the Nifty was up 50.90 points or 0.20 percent at 25,693.70.

For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty added 1.5% each.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Up)

The GIFT Nifty is trading higher at around 25,940.50, indicating a strong start for the day.

Asian Equities (Gains)

Asian stocks rose at open as investors took cues from a Wall Street rally on Friday, following a volatile week driven by concern over valuation in technology stocks.



US Equities (Up)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to close above the 50,000 mark for the first time on Friday, a historic moment for the blue-chip index that has outperformed its Wall Street peers this year as investors sought names beyond technology.

The index rose 1,206.95 points, or 2.47%, on Friday to finish at 50,115.67. The Dow is now up 4.3% for the year so far compared with a 1.3% gain for 2026 in the S&amp;amp;P 500 and a 0.9% decline for the year so far in the Nasdaq.



US Bond Yield (Up)

The yields on 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury up marginally in the early Monday trade.



Dollar Index (Flat)

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was last flat at 97.54, at the start of a week that will see the release of several key data releases, including retail sales, inflation and Wednesday's delayed jobs report.



Asian Currencies (Up)

Except Indonesian Rupiah, South Korean Won, all other Asian currencies were trading higher in the early trade on Monday.



Crude (Slips)

Oil prices dropped more than 1% at Monday's open as concerns about a possible conflict in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran eased after both countries finished a round of talks on Friday.



Gold (Gains)

Gold advanced above $ 5000 an ounce, as dip-buyers returned to the market after an exceptionally volatile week for precious metals.



Fund Flow Action

On February 6, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought equities worth ₹ 1950 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold equities worth over ₹1265 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Market to first react to US-India interim trade agreement, Focus will be on final set of corporate earnings, inflation data from the US, India, and China, and US jobs data

* Market to first react to US-India interim trade agreement
* Focus will be on final set of corporate earnings, inflation data from the US, India, and China, and US jobs data

shorts/business/dalal-street-this-week-us-india-trade-agreement-corporate-earnings-us-india-inflation-are-among-10-key-factors-to-watch

* Market to first react to US-India interim trade agreement
* Focus will be on final set of corporate earnings, inflation data from the US, India, and China, and US jobs data

The market sharply rebounded 3.5 percent during the week ended February 6, supported by above-average volumes, after recouping losses from the previous two weeks. Much of the credit goes to the US–India trade deal announced by President Donald Trump on Monday night, followed by the interim trade agreement and Trump’s executive order removing the additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods imposed over Russian oil imports over the weekend.

The Union Budget presented on February 1 did not materially shift market sentiment, while the RBI’s upward revision of GDP forecasts for FY26, combined with a steady inflation outlook, reinforced confidence in the medium-term domestic economic trajectory.

FII inflows also supported the market; however, rising oil prices signalled caution. The technology sector was the biggest loser following Anthropic’s launch of a sophisticated legal-focused AI tool, with the index falling nearly 7 percent, which capped the broader market’s upside.

In the current week starting February 9, the market is expected to first react to the interim trade agreement disclosed by the US and India through a joint statement, along with the removal of additional tariffs on Indian goods. Overall, the trend is likely to remain positive, albeit with possible range-bound trading following the easing of trade deal concerns. The focus will be on the final set of corporate earnings, inflation data from the US, India, and China, and US jobs data, experts said.

The Nifty 50 rallied 868 points (3.5 percent) during the week to close at 25,694, while the BSE Sensex surged 2,857 points (3.54 percent) to 83,580. Meanwhile, the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices jumped 4.2 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

“Overall, markets may remain range-bound in the near term, with stock-specific action driven by earnings outcomes and lingering global uncertainties,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

He added that attention will shift to upcoming US economic data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials for further cues on the global macro environment and the interest-rate trajectory.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, despite these positives, sentiment in the near term is expected to remain cautious due to Q3 earnings that broadly trailed expectations, as well as rising crude oil prices amid escalating US–Iran tensions.

Here are 10 key factors to watch this week:

India-US Interim Trade Agreement

The market participants are expected to react to the details of the interim trade agreement announced by both countries through the issuance of joint statement on February 7 and passing of executive order by Donald Trump removing additional 25 percent penalty imposed on India for Russian oil imports. After this, the India is having either at par or below tariff rate compared to other Asian and emerging market counterparts.

Several sectors like pharma, gems and diamonds, smartphones, and select agricultural products, tea, coffee, and fruits will have zero reciprocal tariffs in the United States, while the country managed to safeguard agriculture and daily segments though there is a limited access for US agricultural products.

Corporate Earnings

The market will see the final lot of December quarter earnings this week as more than 1,900 companies will release their quarterly earnings during the current week including the Nifty 50 names like Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Eicher Motors, Grasim Industries, Titan Company, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, Coal India, Hindustan Unilever, and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation.

Among others, Hindalco Industries, Britannia Industries, Zydus Lifesciences, Aurobindo Pharma , LG Electronics India, Amber Enterprises India, Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company, Escorts Kubota, Jubilant FoodWorks, Karnataka Bank, Oil India, Torrent Power, United Breweries, Wakefit Innovations, Ashok Leyland, CARE Ratings, Divis Laboratories, Bharat Forge, Biocon, Hindustan Aeronautics, Honasa Consumer, Indian Hotels Company, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation, Lupin, Shadowfax Technologies, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Brainbees Solutions Firstcry, Ipca Laboratories., IRB Infrastructure Developers. and Torrent Pharmaceuticals will alos announce their quarterly numbers this week.

Domestic Economic Data

The focus will be on the inflation numbers for the month of January 2026, which is one of the crucial factors for the RBI before taking interest rate decision. The consumer price inflation climbed to 1.33 percent in December last year, from 0.71 percent in previous month. Most economists see some further uptick in the numbers.

Apart from inflation, bank loan and deposit growth for fortnight ended January 23, and the foreign exchange reserves for week ended February 6 will also be released this week on February 13.

US Inflation, Unemployment Rate

Globally, investors will keep an eye on the US inflation numbers, unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls for January. Most economists expect the inflation to fall in January, from 2.7 percent in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to be steady at 4.4 percent.

"Following a string of labour market reports that largely surprised to the downside, attention now turns to the official non-farm payrolls report due February 11 as significant downward revisions could strengthen the case for future rate cuts," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said. Retail sales data, and speeches from several Fed officials will also be closely monitored.

Global Economic Data

China will also announce its inflation and PPI data for January, while the Europe will release its second estimates for GDP growth of Q4CY25 this week.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13817648 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260209013343_Image3008022026.jpg" alt="Image3008022026" width="1047" height="531" />

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php" target="_blank">FII Flow</a>

Back home, the mood of FIIs (foreign institutional investors) will be watched as they finally turned net buyers in Indian equities after a long time, thanks to the Donald Trump who agreed to reduce tariff on Indian goods to 18 percent from 50 percent, and appreciation of rupee against US dollar. "Rupee is expected to stabilise and gradually appreciate to below 90 to the dollar by end March 2026. This has the potential to trigger more FII inflows into India. However, a lot will depend on how the AI trade pans out," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments said.

FIIs have net bought Rs 3,234 crore worth shares during the week and Rs 2,645.5 crore for current month, while DIIs (domestic institutional investors) picked up shares amounting to Rs 2,892 crore in February so far.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee appreciated by 1.19 percent during the week to 90.56 against the US dollar and seems to have formed Evening Star kind of candlestick pattern on the weekly charts which needs to be confirmed in the followed week, signalling potential positive trend reversal.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO</a>

Investors will see three new public issues worth Rs 3,871-crore this week with Fractal Analytics, and Aye Finance being the first opening for subscription on February 9 with price band of Rs 857-900 per share, and Rs 122-129 apiece, respectively.

Pure AI company Fractal Analytics is raising Rs 2,834 crore at the upper price, band, while Alphabet, and LGT Capital-backed NBFC Aye Finance aims to mop up its Rs 1,010-crore via initial share sale.

Marushika Technology will be last IPO amongst them, which is from the SME segment. The IT and telecom infrastructure solutions provider intends to raise Rs 26.97 crore via public issue of 23.05 lakh shares at the upper price band of Rs 111-117 per share. Further, Biopol Chemicals, and PAN HR Solutions will close their public issues on February 10.

Four companies are scheduled for market debut this week - Brandman Retail, Grover Jewells, Biopol Chemicals, and PAN HR Solutions.

Technical View

Technically, the trend remains favourable for bulls with the Nifty 50 trading above all key moving averages, and consistently holding the long bullish gap (of February 3) on closing basis with supportive momentum indicators. Hence, the 25,800-26,000 is expected to be crucial resistance for the Nifty 50 as decisive move above it drive the index toward 26,200-26,400 levels, however, the crucial support is placed at the 25,500.

F&amp;O Cues

The weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is expected to the 25,500-26,000 range in the short term as convincing trade either of the side can give firm direction to the index. The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 26,500 strikes. with the maximum Call writing at the 25,600, 25,950 and 26,300 strikes.

On the Put side, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 25,600 strikes with the maximum Put writing placed at the 25,500, 25,600 and 25,550 strikes.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, plunged 20.9 percent during the last week to finish at 11.94, giving comfort for bulls and signalling low uncertainty in the market.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place in the current week:

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13817646 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260209013301_Image2908022026.jpg" alt="Image2908022026" width="1016" height="1706" />

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dalal Street this week: US-India trade agreement, corporate earnings, US, India inflation are among 10 key factors to watch

The market sharply rebounded 3.5 percent during the week ended February 6, supported by above-average volumes, after recouping losses from the previous two weeks. Much of the credit goes to the US–India trade deal announced by President Donald Trump on Monday night, followed by the interim trade agreement and Trump’s executive order removing the additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods imposed over Russian oil imports over the weekend.

The Union Budget presented on February 1 did not materially shift market sentiment, while the RBI’s upward revision of GDP forecasts for FY26, combined with a steady inflation outlook, reinforced confidence in the medium-term domestic economic trajectory.

FII inflows also supported the market; however, rising oil prices signalled caution. The technology sector was the biggest loser following Anthropic’s launch of a sophisticated legal-focused AI tool, with the index falling nearly 7 percent, which capped the broader market’s upside.

In the current week starting February 9, the market is expected to first react to the interim trade agreement disclosed by the US and India through a joint statement, along with the removal of additional tariffs on Indian goods. Overall, the trend is likely to remain positive, albeit with possible range-bound trading following the easing of trade deal concerns. The focus will be on the final set of corporate earnings, inflation data from the US, India, and China, and US jobs data, experts said.

The Nifty 50 rallied 868 points (3.5 percent) during the week to close at 25,694, while the BSE Sensex surged 2,857 points (3.54 percent) to 83,580. Meanwhile, the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices jumped 4.2 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

“Overall, markets may remain range-bound in the near term, with stock-specific action driven by earnings outcomes and lingering global uncertainties,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

He added that attention will shift to upcoming US economic data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials for further cues on the global macro environment and the interest-rate trajectory.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, despite these positives, sentiment in the near term is expected to remain cautious due to Q3 earnings that broadly trailed expectations, as well as rising crude oil prices amid escalating US–Iran tensions.

Here are 10 key factors to watch this week:

India-US Interim Trade Agreement

The market participants are expected to react to the details of the interim trade agreement announced by both countries through the issuance of joint statement on February 7 and passing of executive order by Donald Trump removing additional 25 percent penalty imposed on India for Russian oil imports. After this, the India is having either at par or below tariff rate compared to other Asian and emerging market counterparts.

Several sectors like pharma, gems and diamonds, smartphones, and select agricultural products, tea, coffee, and fruits will have zero reciprocal tariffs in the United States, while the country managed to safeguard agriculture and daily segments though there is a limited access for US agricultural products.

Corporate Earnings

The market will see the final lot of December quarter earnings this week as more than 1,900 companies will release their quarterly earnings during the current week including the Nifty 50 names like Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, Eicher Motors, Grasim Industries, Titan Company, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, Coal India, Hindustan Unilever, and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation.

Among others, Hindalco Industries, Britannia Industries, Zydus Lifesciences, Aurobindo Pharma , LG Electronics India, Amber Enterprises India, Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company, Escorts Kubota, Jubilant FoodWorks, Karnataka Bank, Oil India, Torrent Power, United Breweries, Wakefit Innovations, Ashok Leyland, CARE Ratings, Divis Laboratories, Bharat Forge, Biocon, Hindustan Aeronautics, Honasa Consumer, Indian Hotels Company, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation, Lupin, Shadowfax Technologies, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Brainbees Solutions Firstcry, Ipca Laboratories., IRB Infrastructure Developers. and Torrent Pharmaceuticals will alos announce their quarterly numbers this week.

Domestic Economic Data

The focus will be on the inflation numbers for the month of January 2026, which is one of the crucial factors for the RBI before taking interest rate decision. The consumer price inflation climbed to 1.33 percent in December last year, from 0.71 percent in previous month. Most economists see some further uptick in the numbers.

Apart from inflation, bank loan and deposit growth for fortnight ended January 23, and the foreign exchange reserves for week ended February 6 will also be released this week on February 13.

US Inflation, Unemployment Rate

Globally, investors will keep an eye on the US inflation numbers, unemployment rate, and non-farm payrolls for January. Most economists expect the inflation to fall in January, from 2.7 percent in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to be steady at 4.4 percent.

"Following a string of labour market reports that largely surprised to the downside, attention now turns to the official non-farm payrolls report due February 11 as significant downward revisions could strengthen the case for future rate cuts," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Securities said. Retail sales data, and speeches from several Fed officials will also be closely monitored.

Global Economic Data

China will also announce its inflation and PPI data for January, while the Europe will release its second estimates for GDP growth of Q4CY25 this week.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13817648 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/02/20260209013343_Image3008022026.jpg" alt="Image3008022026" width="1047" height="531" />

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketstats/fii_dii_activity/index.php" target="_blank">FII Flow</a>

Back home, the mood of FIIs (foreign institutional investors) will be watched as they finally turned net buyers in Indian equities after a long time, thanks to the Donald Trump who agreed to reduce tariff on Indian goods to 18 percent from 50 percent, and appreciation of rupee against US dollar. "Rupee is expected to stabilise and gradually appreciate to below 90 to the dollar by end March 2026. This has the potential to trigger more FII inflows into India. However, a lot will depend on how the AI trade pans out," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments said.

FIIs have net bought Rs 3,234 crore worth shares during the week and Rs 2,645.5 crore for current month, while DIIs (domestic institutional investors) picked up shares amounting to Rs 2,892 crore in February so far.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee appreciated by 1.19 percent during the week to 90.56 against the US dollar and seems to have formed Evening Star kind of candlestick pattern on the weekly charts which needs to be confirmed in the followed week, signalling potential positive trend reversal.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/ipo/" target="_blank">IPO</a>

Investors will see three new public issues worth Rs 3,871-crore this week with Fractal Analytics, and Aye Finance being the first opening for subscription on February 9 with price band of Rs 857-900 per share, and Rs 122-129 apiece, respectively.

Pure AI company Fractal Analytics is raising Rs 2,834 crore at the upper price, band, while Alphabet, and LGT Capital-backed NBFC Aye Finance aims to mop up its Rs 1,010-crore via initial share sale.

Marushika Technology will be last IPO amongst them, which is from the SME segment. The IT and telecom infrastructure solutions provider intends to raise Rs 26.97 crore via public issue of 23.05 lakh shares at the upper price band of Rs 111-117 per share. Further, Biopol Chemicals, and PAN HR Solutions will close their public issues on February 10.

Four companies are scheduled for market debut this week - Brandman Retail, Grover Jewells, Biopol Chemicals, and PAN HR Solutions.

Technical View

Technically, the trend remains favourable for bulls with the Nifty 50 trading above all key moving averages, and consistently holding the long bullish gap (of February 3) on closing basis with supportive momentum indicators. Hence, the 25,800-26,000 is expected to be crucial resistance for the Nifty 50 as decisive move above it drive the index toward 26,200-26,400 levels, however, the crucial support is placed at the 25,500.

F&amp;O Cues

The weekly options data suggested that the Nifty 50 is expected to the 25,500-26,000 range in the short term as convincing trade either of the side can give firm direction to the index. The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 26,500 strikes. with the maximum Call writing at the 25,600, 25,950 and 26,300 strikes.

On the Put side, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 25,600 strikes with the maximum Put writing placed at the 25,500, 25,600 and 25,550 strikes.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, plunged 20.9 percent during the last week to finish at 11.94, giving comfort for bulls and signalling low uncertainty in the market.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place in the current week:

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6 out of 8 years NIFTY SMLCAP 250 has given negative returns in February.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	15,933.30	16,002.10	16,123.80	15,811.60	15,742.80	15,621.10	15,552.30
Fibonacci	15,884.37	15,929.33	16,002.10	15,811.60	15,738.83	15,693.87	15,621.10
Camarilla	15,881.96	15,899.42	15,916.89	15,811.60	15,847.04	15,829.58	15,812.11

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY SMLCAP 250

Net Contribution

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