NIFTY Realty

Nifty likely to trade cautiously, with a consolidative bias, Most experts expect Nifty to breakout above 50 DMA than downside move below 100 DEMA, Bank Nifty likely to march toward its record high of 60,437 as long as holds 59,800–59,500 support zone

* Nifty likely to trade cautiously, with a consolidative bias
* Most experts expect Nifty to breakout above 50 DMA than downside move below 100 DEMA
* Bank Nifty likely to march toward its record high of 60,437 as long as holds 59,800–59,500 support zone

shorts/business/trading-plan-can-nifty-50-climb-convincingly-above-50-dema-bank-nifty-hold-60-000

* Nifty likely to trade cautiously, with a consolidative bias
* Most experts expect Nifty to breakout above 50 DMA than downside move below 100 DEMA
* Bank Nifty likely to march toward its record high of 60,437 as long as holds 59,800–59,500 support zone

The Nifty 50 remained consolidative throughout the week before closing flat on both a daily and weekly basis. The index decisively needs to break the 25,600–25,900 range for a directional move going ahead. Until then, it is likely to trade cautiously, with a consolidative bias. Most experts expect a breakout above the 50-day EMA (slightly below 25,900) rather than a downside move below the 100-day EMA (slightly above 25,600). Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to march toward its record high of 60,437 as long as it holds the 59,800–59,500 support zone. However, a fall below this support could open the door for bearish momentum.

On January 16, the Nifty 50 rose 29 points to 25,694, while the Bank Nifty rallied 515 points (0.86 percent) to 60,095. Bears maintained control over market breadth, as about 1,675 shares witnessed selling pressure compared to 1,233 shares that gained on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical &amp; Derivative Research at Angel One

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 is positioned at a critical inflection point, where any adverse developments on the global front could potentially disrupt the prevailing chart structure in the near term. On the downside, the 25,500–25,450 zone has emerged as a key support area, providing a cushion against declines. This range is expected to remain a crucial support band in the event of further weakness during the upcoming week.

On the upside, the index continues to face strong resistance in the 25,875–25,900 range, which coincides with the 50-day EMA. In the absence of a decisive and sustained breakout above this resistance zone, the Nifty 50 is likely to trade cautiously, with a consolidative bias.

Going forward, it remains crucial to closely monitor global developments, particularly those related to trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions, as these factors are likely to act as significant catalysts in shaping near-term market trends. Additionally, several heavyweight constituents of the Nifty are scheduled to announce their earnings over the weekend, the impact of which is expected to be reflected in market action in the forthcoming sessions.

Key Resistance: 25,900, 26,000

Key Support: 25,500, 25,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 25,550–25,500, with a stop-loss of 25,400, and book profits near 25,900–26,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty remained lacklustre within the 25,900–25,400 levels during the last week, indicating indecision at current levels. The index recorded a marginal weekly decline of 11 points. On the weekly chart, it formed a “doji” candle along with a lower high-low structure, reflecting a short-term pause.

Since October 2025, the index has been consolidating within a broad range of 26,400 to 25,400 levels, representing a short-term sideways trend. Furthermore, the Nifty continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. For the week ahead, Nifty is expected to trade within the 26,000–25,300 range with a negative bias. The daily and weekly RSI have turned negative and are below their reference levels, reinforcing the underlying bearish bias.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 26,000

Key Support: 25,600, 25,500

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 25,800 with a stop-loss of 25,950, targeting 25,500–25,400.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Nifty ended the week with a doji after sweeping the weekly swing low near 25,693 and the previous week’s low around 25,623, clearly signalling the failure of bears to generate downside follow-through. This dual liquidity sweep, without any bearish fair value gap on the weekly chart, suggests that the recent decline was a stop hunt rather than genuine distribution.

Price action reflects absorption at lower levels, keeping the broader structure intact. Importantly, the index has now taken support at the 20-week moving average for two consecutive weeks, reinforcing its role as a medium-term launchpad. The absence of downside expansion indicates that the current order flow is trapped liquidity.

A decisive move above 25,880 would confirm a shift in control back to bulls and trigger a fresh leg higher toward 26,170. Momentum indicators remain neutral to improving, leaving sufficient room for upside extension. Unless key weekly supports break decisively, dips should continue to attract demand rather than aggressive selling.

Key Resistance: 25,880, 26,170

Key Support: 25,650, 25,449

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 25,880 with a stop-loss below 25,800, targeting 26,170.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical &amp; Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty had a productive weekly outing after a successful retest of the 50-EMA. The index staged a smart recovery on the first trading day, after which price action remained largely sideways over the next two sessions. However, post the mid-week holiday, buyers returned with renewed strength, pushing prices above the highs of the preceding two sessions and securing an encouraging weekly close above the 60,000 mark. The index ended the week with gains of 0.86 percent.

The technical structure witnessed a notable improvement last week, as buyers stepped in early to defend key support levels and initiate a recovery. That said, the broader structure remains indecisive and range-bound, with no clear directional bias emerging yet. We expect this ongoing coiling phase to persist as long as prices remain confined within the prior two-week range, with the upside capped in the 60,300–60,450 band and the downside defined in the 58,900–58,830 zone.

A decisive move beyond either of these boundaries is likely to trigger an acceleration in momentum. While the continued outperformance of PSU banks has contributed to the index’s relative strength, meaningful participation from private banks could be the catalyst needed to propel Bank Nifty toward fresh all-time highs.

Key Resistance: 60,450, 60,800

Key Support: 59,500, 58,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 59,400–59,200 for a potential target of 60,500, with a stop-loss of 58,800.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

On the weekly chart, the Bank Nifty has formed a bullish candle, reaffirming the underlying positive bias. For the ninth consecutive week, the index has been consolidating within the 60,400–58,700 range, indicating a sideways trend. A sustained move above 60,400 may trigger a further rally toward the 61,200–62,000 zone.

Conversely, on the downside, the support zone is placed around the 59,500–59,200 levels. For the current week, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 62,000–59,500 range with a positive bias. The weekly strength indicator RSI has turned flat, representing a lack of strength on either side.

Key Resistance: 60,200, 60,450

Key Support: 59,850, 59,650

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 59,900 with a stop-loss of 59,700, targeting 60,400–60,550.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty displayed clear relative strength after sweeping the previous week’s low, while bears failed to press prices toward the broader weekly swing low. This inability to extend on the downside signals absorption of supply and confirms that the recent dip was a liquidity grab rather than structural weakness. The index closed near its all-time high, reinforcing bullish dominance and suggesting that Bank Nifty is positioned to lead the next leg higher ahead of the broader market.

The short-term structure shows a clean breakout on lower time frames, with price holding above the breakout base, indicating acceptance at higher levels. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone would likely unlock momentum-driven expansion and trigger fresh all-time highs, extending toward higher projected targets.

Momentum indicators remain supportive, with no signs of exhaustion, while moving averages continue to slope upward, reinforcing trend strength. With the broader market finding support at its key averages, the prevailing setup favours continuation, and shallow pullbacks should continue to attract buyers rather than sellers in the coming weeks.

Key Resistance: 60,120, 60,950

Key Support: 59,800, 59,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 60,120, with a stop-loss below 59,800, targeting 60,500–60,950.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Ownership, Material Conflicts of Interest and Disciplinary History

MCD is a wholly owned subsidiary of Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd ("Network18"), in which Independent Media Trust (IMT) holds 56.89% stake. Reliance Industries Limited ("RIL") is the sole beneficiary of IMT. Network18 and RIL and their subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates can be considered as associates of MCD.

Details of Associate

Receipt of Compensation

Third-Party Compensation

Employment History

Market-Making Activities

Use of Artificial Intelligence

Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 climb convincingly above 50 DEMA, Bank Nifty hold 60,000?

The Nifty 50 remained consolidative throughout the week before closing flat on both a daily and weekly basis. The index decisively needs to break the 25,600–25,900 range for a directional move going ahead. Until then, it is likely to trade cautiously, with a consolidative bias. Most experts expect a breakout above the 50-day EMA (slightly below 25,900) rather than a downside move below the 100-day EMA (slightly above 25,600). Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty is likely to march toward its record high of 60,437 as long as it holds the 59,800–59,500 support zone. However, a fall below this support could open the door for bearish momentum.

On January 16, the Nifty 50 rose 29 points to 25,694, while the Bank Nifty rallied 515 points (0.86 percent) to 60,095. Bears maintained control over market breadth, as about 1,675 shares witnessed selling pressure compared to 1,233 shares that gained on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical &amp;amp; Derivative Research at Angel One

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 is positioned at a critical inflection point, where any adverse developments on the global front could potentially disrupt the prevailing chart structure in the near term. On the downside, the 25,500–25,450 zone has emerged as a key support area, providing a cushion against declines. This range is expected to remain a crucial support band in the event of further weakness during the upcoming week.

On the upside, the index continues to face strong resistance in the 25,875–25,900 range, which coincides with the 50-day EMA. In the absence of a decisive and sustained breakout above this resistance zone, the Nifty 50 is likely to trade cautiously, with a consolidative bias.

Going forward, it remains crucial to closely monitor global developments, particularly those related to trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions, as these factors are likely to act as significant catalysts in shaping near-term market trends. Additionally, several heavyweight constituents of the Nifty are scheduled to announce their earnings over the weekend, the impact of which is expected to be reflected in market action in the forthcoming sessions.

Key Resistance: 25,900, 26,000

Key Support: 25,500, 25,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips around 25,550–25,500, with a stop-loss of 25,400, and book profits near 25,900–26,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

Nifty remained lacklustre within the 25,900–25,400 levels during the last week, indicating indecision at current levels. The index recorded a marginal weekly decline of 11 points. On the weekly chart, it formed a “doji” candle along with a lower high-low structure, reflecting a short-term pause.

Since October 2025, the index has been consolidating within a broad range of 26,400 to 25,400 levels, representing a short-term sideways trend. Furthermore, the Nifty continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. For the week ahead, Nifty is expected to trade within the 26,000–25,300 range with a negative bias. The daily and weekly RSI have turned negative and are below their reference levels, reinforcing the underlying bearish bias.

Key Resistance: 25,800, 26,000

Key Support: 25,600, 25,500

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 25,800 with a stop-loss of 25,950, targeting 25,500–25,400.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Nifty ended the week with a doji after sweeping the weekly swing low near 25,693 and the previous week’s low around 25,623, clearly signalling the failure of bears to generate downside follow-through. This dual liquidity sweep, without any bearish fair value gap on the weekly chart, suggests that the recent decline was a stop hunt rather than genuine distribution.

Price action reflects absorption at lower levels, keeping the broader structure intact. Importantly, the index has now taken support at the 20-week moving average for two consecutive weeks, reinforcing its role as a medium-term launchpad. The absence of downside expansion indicates that the current order flow is trapped liquidity.

A decisive move above 25,880 would confirm a shift in control back to bulls and trigger a fresh leg higher toward 26,170. Momentum indicators remain neutral to improving, leaving sufficient room for upside extension. Unless key weekly supports break decisively, dips should continue to attract demand rather than aggressive selling.

Key Resistance: 25,880, 26,170

Key Support: 25,650, 25,449

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 25,880 with a stop-loss below 25,800, targeting 26,170.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Osho Krishan, Chief Manager - Technical &amp;amp; Derivative Research at Angel One

Bank Nifty had a productive weekly outing after a successful retest of the 50-EMA. The index staged a smart recovery on the first trading day, after which price action remained largely sideways over the next two sessions. However, post the mid-week holiday, buyers returned with renewed strength, pushing prices above the highs of the preceding two sessions and securing an encouraging weekly close above the 60,000 mark. The index ended the week with gains of 0.86 percent.

The technical structure witnessed a notable improvement last week, as buyers stepped in early to defend key support levels and initiate a recovery. That said, the broader structure remains indecisive and range-bound, with no clear directional bias emerging yet. We expect this ongoing coiling phase to persist as long as prices remain confined within the prior two-week range, with the upside capped in the 60,300–60,450 band and the downside defined in the 58,900–58,830 zone.

A decisive move beyond either of these boundaries is likely to trigger an acceleration in momentum. While the continued outperformance of PSU banks has contributed to the index’s relative strength, meaningful participation from private banks could be the catalyst needed to propel Bank Nifty toward fresh all-time highs.

Key Resistance: 60,450, 60,800

Key Support: 59,500, 58,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 59,400–59,200 for a potential target of 60,500, with a stop-loss of 58,800.

Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President Research (Head Technical Derivatives) at Axis Securities

On the weekly chart, the Bank Nifty has formed a bullish candle, reaffirming the underlying positive bias. For the ninth consecutive week, the index has been consolidating within the 60,400–58,700 range, indicating a sideways trend. A sustained move above 60,400 may trigger a further rally toward the 61,200–62,000 zone.

Conversely, on the downside, the support zone is placed around the 59,500–59,200 levels. For the current week, Bank Nifty is expected to trade within the 62,000–59,500 range with a positive bias. The weekly strength indicator RSI has turned flat, representing a lack of strength on either side.

Key Resistance: 60,200, 60,450

Key Support: 59,850, 59,650

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 59,900 with a stop-loss of 59,700, targeting 60,400–60,550.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments

Bank Nifty displayed clear relative strength after sweeping the previous week’s low, while bears failed to press prices toward the broader weekly swing low. This inability to extend on the downside signals absorption of supply and confirms that the recent dip was a liquidity grab rather than structural weakness. The index closed near its all-time high, reinforcing bullish dominance and suggesting that Bank Nifty is positioned to lead the next leg higher ahead of the broader market.

The short-term structure shows a clean breakout on lower time frames, with price holding above the breakout base, indicating acceptance at higher levels. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone would likely unlock momentum-driven expansion and trigger fresh all-time highs, extending toward higher projected targets.

Momentum indicators remain supportive, with no signs of exhaustion, while moving averages continue to slope upward, reinforcing trend strength. With the broader market finding support at its key averages, the prevailing setup favours continuation, and shallow pullbacks should continue to attract buyers rather than sellers in the coming weeks.

Key Resistance: 60,120, 60,950

Key Support: 59,800, 59,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 60,120, with a stop-loss below 59,800, targeting 60,500–60,950.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty 50 may face strong hurdle at 25,900, likely to take support at 25,600, Momentum, technical indicators remain largely sideways to bearish, Index needs to decisively break the 25,600–25,900 range on either side for firm direction

* Nifty 50 may face strong hurdle at 25,900, likely to take support at 25,600
* Momentum, technical indicators remain largely sideways to bearish
* Index needs to decisively break the 25,600–25,900 range on either side for firm direction

shorts/business/trade-setup-for-january-19-top-15-things-to-know-before-the-opening-bell

* Nifty 50 may face strong hurdle at 25,900, likely to take support at 25,600
* Momentum, technical indicators remain largely sideways to bearish
* Index needs to decisively break the 25,600–25,900 range on either side for firm direction

The Nifty 50 closed moderately higher amid volatile and rangebound trading on January 16. It attempted twice during the week, including on Friday, to sustain above the 50-day EMA (near 25,900) but failed. Hence, this level can be considered a strong hurdle for a sharp upward journey toward and beyond 26,000. On the other side, the index has been taking healthy support at the 100-day EMA (a tad above 25,600) on a closing basis for the last five straight sessions. Below this, the crucial support is placed at 25,450. Further, the momentum and technical indicators remained largely sideways to bearish. Hence, until the index decisively breaks the 25,600–25,900 range on either side, consolidation and caution may continue, experts said.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777754 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118160651_Image317012026.jpg" alt="Image317012026" width="1281" height="646" />

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html" target="_blank">Nifty 50</a> (25,694)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,824, 25,874, and 25,954

Support based on pivot points: 25,663, 25,613, and 25,532

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on both the daily and weekly charts, indicating indecision among market participants. The index traded below short-term moving averages, which trended downward, while the 50-day and 100-day EMAs remained flat for the last five sessions. It also sustained below the rising trendline, which is now acting as resistance after previously being a support trendline. The RSI remained in a narrow range around 40 for more than a week, while the MACD stayed below the signal line. The histogram remained below the zero line, though weakness faded slightly. All this indicates continued consolidation with a cautious to bearish undertone.

2) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-bank-23.html" target="_blank">Bank Nifty</a> (60,095)

Resistance based on pivot points: 60,224, 60,395, and 60,672

Support based on pivot points: 59,670, 59,499, and 59,222

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 60,437, 60,860

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,392, 59,163

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50 with above-average volumes and rallied 0.86 percent after convincingly breaking out of the consolidation of the previous four sessions. The index is now comfortably trading above all key moving averages and has moved closer to the upper Bollinger Bands, forming a long green candle on the daily timeframe. The RSI at 61.43 showed a positive crossover, and the Stochastic RSI maintained a bullish crossover, while the MACD is on the verge of a positive breakout with an almost flat histogram. All this indicates strengthening bullish momentum in the Bank Nifty.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777756" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118160745_Image417012026.jpg" alt="Image417012026" width="1281" height="646" />

3) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the weekly options data, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.45 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,800 strike (1.25 crore contracts) and 25,900 strike (1.1 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,900 strike, which saw an addition of 56.74 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,100 and 25,800 strikes, which added 52.17 lakh and 38.98 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 25,650 strike, which shed 13.35 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,600 and 25,550 strikes, which shed 98,410 and 77,740 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777757 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118160824_Image717012026.jpg" alt="Image717012026" width="1258" height="340" />

4) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was observed at the 25,500 strike (with 74.35 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,700 strike (68.69 lakh contracts) and the 25,600 strike (62.19 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,500 strike, which saw an addition of 26.49 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,700 and 25,800 strikes, which added 24.9 lakh and 20.8 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 26,000 strike, which shed 1.2 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,100 and 26,400 strikes, which shed 1.06 lakh and 18,980 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777759 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118160849_Image817012026.jpg" alt="Image817012026" width="1249" height="346" />

5) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the monthly options data, the 60,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 15.34 lakh contracts. This can act as a key level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 59,500 strike (14.84 lakh contracts) and the 61,000 strike (8.43 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 60,200 strike (with the addition of 96,930 contracts), followed by the 60,100 strike (85,590 contracts) and 61,500 strike (75,180 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 59,700 strike, which shed 1.08 lakh contracts, followed by the 59,500 and 59,800 strikes which shed 98,910 and 96,450 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777761 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118160913_Image917012026.jpg" alt="Image917012026" width="1255" height="342" />

6) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 59,500 strike (with 20.29 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 60,000 strike (13.22 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (10.89 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 60,000 strike (which added 5.11 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,100 strike (2.14 lakh contracts) and the 60,200 strike (1.44 lakh contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 59,200 strike, which shed 17,550 contracts, followed by the 59,400 and 60,600 strikes, which shed 14,610 and 12,210 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777762 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118160937_Image1017012026.jpg" alt="Image1017012026" width="1252" height="342" />

7) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Funds Flow (Rs crore)</a>

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777763 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118161000_Image117012026.jpg" alt="Image117012026" width="1045" height="401" />

8) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Put-Call Ratio</a>

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, dropped to 0.76 on January 16, compared to 0.81 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777764 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118161023_Image517012026.jpg" alt="Image517012026" width="1251" height="513" />

9) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/india-vix-36.html" target="_blank">India VIX</a>

India VIX, also known as the fear index, remained elevated but moved within a range of 10.5–12 levels for the third straight session. It sustained above all key moving averages (except the 200-day EMA), signaling caution for bulls. Experts advised staying alert in case the VIX spikes above the 12 zone, which could put bulls at major risk.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777766 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118161105_Image617012026.jpg" alt="Image617012026" width="1281" height="646" />

10) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Build-up (55 Stocks)</a>

A long build-up was seen in 55 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777767 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118161136_Image1117012026.jpg" alt="Image1117012026" width="545" height="235" />

11) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Unwinding (28 Stocks)</a>

28 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777769 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118161157_Image1217012026.jpg" alt="Image1217012026" width="563" height="235" />

12) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short Build-up (90 Stocks)</a>

90 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777770 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118161218_Image1317012026.jpg" alt="Image1317012026" width="555" height="235" />

13) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short-Covering (40 Stocks)</a>

40 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777772 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118161240_Image1417012026.jpg" alt="Image1417012026" width="549" height="235" />

14) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">High Delivery Trades</a>

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777773 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260118161307_Image1517012026.jpg" alt="Image1517012026" width="740" height="235" />

15) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Stocks Under F&amp;O Ban</a>

Securities banned under the F&amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Trade setup for January 19: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

The Nifty 50 closed moderately higher amid volatile and rangebound trading on January 16. It attempted twice during the week, including on Friday, to sustain above the 50-day EMA (near 25,900) but failed. Hence, this level can be considered a strong hurdle for a sharp upward journey toward and beyond 26,000. On the other side, the index has been taking healthy support at the 100-day EMA (a tad above 25,600) on a closing basis for the last five straight sessions. Below this, the crucial support is placed at 25,450. Further, the momentum and technical indicators remained largely sideways to bearish. Hence, until the index decisively breaks the 25,600–25,900 range on either side, consolidation and caution may continue, experts said.



Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,694)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,824, 25,874, and 25,954

Support based on pivot points: 25,663, 25,613, and 25,532

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on both the daily and weekly charts, indicating indecision among market participants. The index traded below short-term moving averages, which trended downward, while the 50-day and 100-day EMAs remained flat for the last five sessions. It also sustained below the rising trendline, which is now acting as resistance after previously being a support trendline. The RSI remained in a narrow range around 40 for more than a week, while the MACD stayed below the signal line. The histogram remained below the zero line, though weakness faded slightly. All this indicates continued consolidation with a cautious to bearish undertone.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (60,095)

Resistance based on pivot points: 60,224, 60,395, and 60,672

Support based on pivot points: 59,670, 59,499, and 59,222

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 60,437, 60,860

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,392, 59,163

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50 with above-average volumes and rallied 0.86 percent after convincingly breaking out of the consolidation of the previous four sessions. The index is now comfortably trading above all key moving averages and has moved closer to the upper Bollinger Bands, forming a long green candle on the daily timeframe. The RSI at 61.43 showed a positive crossover, and the Stochastic RSI maintained a bullish crossover, while the MACD is on the verge of a positive breakout with an almost flat histogram. All this indicates strengthening bullish momentum in the Bank Nifty.



3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.45 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,800 strike (1.25 crore contracts) and 25,900 strike (1.1 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,900 strike, which saw an addition of 56.74 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,100 and 25,800 strikes, which added 52.17 lakh and 38.98 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 25,650 strike, which shed 13.35 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,600 and 25,550 strikes, which shed 98,410 and 77,740 contracts, respectively.



4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was observed at the 25,500 strike (with 74.35 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,700 strike (68.69 lakh contracts) and the 25,600 strike (62.19 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,500 strike, which saw an addition of 26.49 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,700 and 25,800 strikes, which added 24.9 lakh and 20.8 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 26,000 strike, which shed 1.2 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,100 and 26,400 strikes, which shed 1.06 lakh and 18,980 contracts, respectively.



5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 60,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 15.34 lakh contracts. This can act as a key level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 59,500 strike (14.84 lakh contracts) and the 61,000 strike (8.43 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 60,200 strike (with the addition of 96,930 contracts), followed by the 60,100 strike (85,590 contracts) and 61,500 strike (75,180 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 59,700 strike, which shed 1.08 lakh contracts, followed by the 59,500 and 59,800 strikes which shed 98,910 and 96,450 contracts, respectively.



6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 59,500 strike (with 20.29 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 60,000 strike (13.22 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (10.89 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 60,000 strike (which added 5.11 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,100 strike (2.14 lakh contracts) and the 60,200 strike (1.44 lakh contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 59,200 strike, which shed 17,550 contracts, followed by the 59,400 and 60,600 strikes, which shed 14,610 and 12,210 contracts, respectively.



7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)



8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, dropped to 0.76 on January 16, compared to 0.81 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.



9) India VIX

India VIX, also known as the fear index, remained elevated but moved within a range of 10.5–12 levels for the third straight session. It sustained above all key moving averages (except the 200-day EMA), signaling caution for bulls. Experts advised staying alert in case the VIX spikes above the 12 zone, which could put bulls at major risk.



10) Long Build-up (55 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 55 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.



11) Long Unwinding (28 Stocks)

28 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.



12) Short Build-up (90 Stocks)

90 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.



13) Short-Covering (40 Stocks)

40 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.



14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.



15) Stocks Under F&amp;amp;O Ban

Securities banned under the F&amp;amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;amp;O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Nifty 50 direction remains uncertain at this stage, Bet on HCL Technologies, Punjab National Bank for next week, Bullish view on AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Bank of India remains intact, Technical factors reinforce likelihood of upside breakout in Nifty IT index in near term

* Nifty 50 direction remains uncertain at this stage
* Bet on HCL Technologies, Punjab National Bank for next week
* Bullish view on AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Bank of India remains intact
* Technical factors reinforce likelihood of upside breakout in Nifty IT index in near term

shorts/business/chartist-talk-direction-for-nifty-50-remains-uncertain-but-sudeep-shah-bets-on-these-top-5-stocks-for-next-week

* Nifty 50 direction remains uncertain at this stage
* Bet on HCL Technologies, Punjab National Bank for next week
* Bullish view on AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Bank of India remains intact
* Technical factors reinforce likelihood of upside breakout in Nifty IT index in near term

The 20-day EMA continues to slope lower, while the 50-day and 100-day EMAs are largely flat, underscoring the lack of strong directional conviction. Momentum indicators echo this uncertainty, said Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes the current price structure supports the possibility of a significant breakout in the Nifty IT index in the near term.

Sudeep Shah is betting on <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computers-software/hcltechnologies/HCL02">HCL Technologies</a>, and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/punjabnationalbank/PNB05">Punjab National Bank</a> for next week. Further, he maintains bullish view on <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/ausmallfinancebank/ASF02">AU Small Finance Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/federalbank/FB">Federal Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/bankindia/BOI">Bank of India</a> remains intact, supported by both sectoral and stock-specific technical strength.

Do you expect the Nifty 50 to break out of its consolidation on the upside?

After posting a fresh all-time high of 26,373 on January 5, the Nifty has entered a corrective phase. Importantly, the decline has been arrested near the 100-day EMA — a key technical support that has held steadily for the past five trading sessions. The index is now hovering around this zone, suggesting consolidation rather than any signs of panic-driven selling.

On the weekly chart, Nifty has printed a Doji candle, reflecting growing indecision among market participants amid the ongoing Q3 earnings season. The key question now is whether this consolidation is simply a pause before the next move, or a precursor to a deeper correction.

From a technical perspective, the short-term trend remains subdued. The 20-day EMA continues to slope lower, while the 50-day and 100-day EMAs are largely flat, underscoring the lack of strong directional conviction. Momentum indicators echo this uncertainty, with the daily RSI trapped in a narrow range of 38.55–42.84 for five consecutive sessions — a clear sign of subdued momentum and a cautious, wait-and-watch stance among traders. Historically, such extended compression in momentum tends to precede a sharp directional breakout, though the direction remains uncertain at this stage.

Going forward, Q3 earnings from index heavyweights are likely to act as the primary catalyst for Nifty’s next directional move. On the upside, the 25,900–25,950 zone near the 20-day EMA will be an important resistance area; a sustained breakout above 25,950 could trigger a quick rebound towards 26,200, with 26,500 as the next short-term objective. Conversely, the 25,500–25,450 band remains a crucial support zone, and a decisive breakdown below 25,450 could open the door for a sharper phase of correction.

Given the improvement in momentum and technical indicators, do you see the Bank Nifty hitting a fresh record high next week?

Bank Nifty extended its streak of outperformance versus the frontline indices for another week. While the broader market remained largely flat, the banking index gained 1.42%, further strengthening its relative leadership. On the weekly timeframe, the index has formed a bullish candle with a small lower shadow, suggesting that buying interest continues to emerge on declines.

The Bank Nifty–Nifty ratio has moved to a 132-week high, clearly reflecting a phase of sustained outperformance. Structurally, the trend remains firmly positive, with the index trading comfortably above its key moving averages. Momentum indicators also remain supportive, as the daily RSI is holding above the 60 mark and continues to trend higher.

Looking ahead, the Q3 earnings announcements of key heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank over the weekend are likely to act as important triggers and could shape the next leg of movement in the index.

From a levels perspective, the 60,400–60,500 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area. A convincing close above 60,500 could open the door for a swift move toward 61,200, with further upside potential toward 62,000 in the near term. On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 59,300–59,400 band.

Do you see the formation of a cup-and-handle pattern in Nifty IT on the daily chart? If so, does it indicate a potential significant breakout in the near term?

Yes, a cup and handle–like pattern is clearly visible on the daily chart of the Nifty IT index. The current price structure supports the possibility of a significant breakout in the near term. The index is trading comfortably above its key moving averages, indicating sustained strength, and the daily RSI is on the verge of crossing above the 60 level, which typically reflects improving momentum. Together, these factors reinforce the likelihood of an upside breakout in the near term.

What are your top two stock picks for next week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/computers-software/hcltechnologies/HCL02">HCL Technologies</a>

HCL Technologies has delivered a downward-sloping trendline breakout on the daily chart, signalling a potential trend reversal. The stock found strong support near the confluence of its 50-day and 200-day EMAs on January 5 and has been steadily moving higher since then. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with RSI trending upward. Additionally, DI+ crossing above DI- on ADX suggests strengthening bullish strength.

The ratio line in Nifty IT/Nifty ratio has also broken above its previous high, indicating possible outperformance ahead, with the stock poised to lead the rally. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,700-1,690 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,630. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,850 in the short term.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/punjabnationalbank/PNB05">Punjab National Bank</a>

PNB has delivered a horizontal trendline resistance breakout on the daily chart, backed by a healthy rise in volumes. The Rs 127.5–128.5 zone, which earlier acted as a strong supply area, has now been decisively surpassed. Notably, the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band for two consecutive sessions, signalling strong momentum and aggressive buying interest, often seen in the early phase of a trending move.

ADX is steadily rising, indicating strengthening bullish trend strength. Additionally, the Nifty PSU Bank/Nifty ratio continues to move sharply higher, highlighting clear relative outperformance within the PSU banking space Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 133-132 with a stop-loss of Rs 127. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 145 in the short term.

Are you maintaining a bullish view on AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank and Bank of India?

Yes, the bullish view on AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank and Bank of India remains intact, supported by both sectoral and stock-specific technical strength.

Both private banks and PSU banks are clearly outperforming the benchmark, as reflected by fresh breakouts and rising ratio line on their respective ratio charts versus the Nifty, indicating sustained relative strength.

Bank of India has witnessed a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily chart, backed by a rise in volumes. The stock is trading above its key moving averages, while the MACD remains above both the signal line and the zero line, confirming positive momentum. The price action and indicator setup suggest scope for continuation of the ongoing upmove.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist Talk: Direction for Nifty 50 remains uncertain but Sudeep Shah bets on these top 5 stocks for next week

The 20-day EMA continues to slope lower, while the 50-day and 100-day EMAs are largely flat, underscoring the lack of strong directional conviction. Momentum indicators echo this uncertainty, said Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes the current price structure supports the possibility of a significant breakout in the Nifty IT index in the near term.

Sudeep Shah is betting on HCL Technologies, and Punjab National Bank for next week. Further, he maintains bullish view on AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank and Bank of India remains intact, supported by both sectoral and stock-specific technical strength.

Do you expect the Nifty 50 to break out of its consolidation on the upside?

After posting a fresh all-time high of 26,373 on January 5, the Nifty has entered a corrective phase. Importantly, the decline has been arrested near the 100-day EMA — a key technical support that has held steadily for the past five trading sessions. The index is now hovering around this zone, suggesting consolidation rather than any signs of panic-driven selling.

On the weekly chart, Nifty has printed a Doji candle, reflecting growing indecision among market participants amid the ongoing Q3 earnings season. The key question now is whether this consolidation is simply a pause before the next move, or a precursor to a deeper correction.

From a technical perspective, the short-term trend remains subdued. The 20-day EMA continues to slope lower, while the 50-day and 100-day EMAs are largely flat, underscoring the lack of strong directional conviction. Momentum indicators echo this uncertainty, with the daily RSI trapped in a narrow range of 38.55–42.84 for five consecutive sessions — a clear sign of subdued momentum and a cautious, wait-and-watch stance among traders. Historically, such extended compression in momentum tends to precede a sharp directional breakout, though the direction remains uncertain at this stage.

Going forward, Q3 earnings from index heavyweights are likely to act as the primary catalyst for Nifty’s next directional move. On the upside, the 25,900–25,950 zone near the 20-day EMA will be an important resistance area; a sustained breakout above 25,950 could trigger a quick rebound towards 26,200, with 26,500 as the next short-term objective. Conversely, the 25,500–25,450 band remains a crucial support zone, and a decisive breakdown below 25,450 could open the door for a sharper phase of correction.

Given the improvement in momentum and technical indicators, do you see the Bank Nifty hitting a fresh record high next week?

Bank Nifty extended its streak of outperformance versus the frontline indices for another week. While the broader market remained largely flat, the banking index gained 1.42%, further strengthening its relative leadership. On the weekly timeframe, the index has formed a bullish candle with a small lower shadow, suggesting that buying interest continues to emerge on declines.

The Bank Nifty–Nifty ratio has moved to a 132-week high, clearly reflecting a phase of sustained outperformance. Structurally, the trend remains firmly positive, with the index trading comfortably above its key moving averages. Momentum indicators also remain supportive, as the daily RSI is holding above the 60 mark and continues to trend higher.

Looking ahead, the Q3 earnings announcements of key heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank over the weekend are likely to act as important triggers and could shape the next leg of movement in the index.

From a levels perspective, the 60,400–60,500 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area. A convincing close above 60,500 could open the door for a swift move toward 61,200, with further upside potential toward 62,000 in the near term. On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 59,300–59,400 band.

Do you see the formation of a cup-and-handle pattern in Nifty IT on the daily chart? If so, does it indicate a potential significant breakout in the near term?

Yes, a cup and handle–like pattern is clearly visible on the daily chart of the Nifty IT index. The current price structure supports the possibility of a significant breakout in the near term. The index is trading comfortably above its key moving averages, indicating sustained strength, and the daily RSI is on the verge of crossing above the 60 level, which typically reflects improving momentum. Together, these factors reinforce the likelihood of an upside breakout in the near term.

What are your top two stock picks for next week?

HCL Technologies

HCL Technologies has delivered a downward-sloping trendline breakout on the daily chart, signalling a potential trend reversal. The stock found strong support near the confluence of its 50-day and 200-day EMAs on January 5 and has been steadily moving higher since then. Momentum indicators remain supportive, with RSI trending upward. Additionally, DI+ crossing above DI- on ADX suggests strengthening bullish strength.

The ratio line in Nifty IT/Nifty ratio has also broken above its previous high, indicating possible outperformance ahead, with the stock poised to lead the rally. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,700-1,690 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,630. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,850 in the short term.

Punjab National Bank

PNB has delivered a horizontal trendline resistance breakout on the daily chart, backed by a healthy rise in volumes. The Rs 127.5–128.5 zone, which earlier acted as a strong supply area, has now been decisively surpassed. Notably, the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band for two consecutive sessions, signalling strong momentum and aggressive buying interest, often seen in the early phase of a trending move.

ADX is steadily rising, indicating strengthening bullish trend strength. Additionally, the Nifty PSU Bank/Nifty ratio continues to move sharply higher, highlighting clear relative outperformance within the PSU banking space Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 133-132 with a stop-loss of Rs 127. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 145 in the short term.

Are you maintaining a bullish view on AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank and Bank of India?

Yes, the bullish view on AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank and Bank of India remains intact, supported by both sectoral and stock-specific technical strength.

Both private banks and PSU banks are clearly outperforming the benchmark, as reflected by fresh breakouts and rising ratio line on their respective ratio charts versus the Nifty, indicating sustained relative strength.

Bank of India has witnessed a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily chart, backed by a rise in volumes. The stock is trading above its key moving averages, while the MACD remains above both the signal line and the zero line, confirming positive momentum. The price action and indicator setup suggest scope for continuation of the ongoing upmove.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Union Budget likely to do fine-tuning existing schemes, reallocating spending toward high-multiplier areas, Budget to maintain fiscal discipline, support to export segments impacted due to tariffs, Focused push in budget to fast-track PSU privatisation could be a game changer

* Union Budget likely to do fine-tuning existing schemes, reallocating spending toward high-multiplier areas
* Budget to maintain fiscal discipline, support to export segments impacted due to tariffs
* Focused push in budget to fast-track PSU privatisation could be a game changer

shorts/business/daily-voice-focused-push-in-budget-2026-to-fast-track-psu-privatisation-could-be-a-game-changer-says-entrust-s-karthik

* Union Budget likely to do fine-tuning existing schemes, reallocating spending toward high-multiplier areas
* Budget to maintain fiscal discipline, support to export segments impacted due to tariffs
* Focused push in budget to fast-track PSU privatisation could be a game changer

According to Karthik S, the Head of Product and Research at Entrust Family Office, the focus in Union Budget is likely to be on fine-tuning existing schemes, reallocating spending toward high-multiplier areas, maintaining fiscal discipline, and possibly added support to export segments impacted due to tariffs.

A focused push in this budget to fast-track PSU privatisation which will unlock value, improve efficiency, and increase competitiveness could be a game changer, he believes.

On the recent rangebound market action, he is of the view that if earnings recovery broadens, market breadth is likely to improve. "Key drivers for market performance in 2026 include positive progress on tariffs, a strengthening earnings outlook, and stable geopolitical conditions," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Do you expect meaningful reforms in the Union Budget, even after the government has announced several measures in recent months to boost economic and earnings growth? Which single focus area could be a game changer?

This year’s Budget will be under focus amid geopolitical tensions, and trade disruptions. With several growth-supportive measures already announced, such as continued focus on capex with faster infrastructure rollout, Direct tax benefits and GST rationalisation, expectations should hinge more towards measured reforms.

The focus is likely to be on fine-tuning existing schemes, reallocating spending toward high-multiplier areas, maintaining fiscal discipline, and possibly added support to export segments impacted due to tariffs. Maintaining continuity with selective targeted improvements could be expected rather than any sweeping changes.

A focused push in this budget to fast-track PSU privatisation which will unlock value, improve efficiency, and increase competitiveness could be a game changer.

Do you agree that PSUs offer significant upside and are now more reasonably valued than the private sector?

It is not possible to generalise. Select PSU banks and energy PSUs look attractive. PSU banks have witnessed re-rating recently benefiting from reasonable credit growth, asset book improvements, and expected NIM stability. Credit revival could potentially drive further re-rating. Energy-linked PSUs are entering an execution-led phase with more predictable cash flows.

On the other hand, few defence sector PSUs look expensive having seen significant valuation gains driven by robust order books and rising optimism on spends.

Certain segments offer attractive valuations, making 2026 a year for selective alpha. Well-managed PSUs with strong earnings visibility could deliver significant upside.

Which themes do you expect to perform well this year despite uncertain global cues?

Sectors such as banks, metals, autos, and few capital goods are poised to benefit from sustained infrastructure push, uptick in credit growth, and consumption trends. Progress on resolving tariff challenges could further accelerate export-oriented industries by providing significant tailwinds.

Additionally, energy, and select IT services remain attractive driven by increasing global demand and technological shifts. A clear policy framework on privatization could unlock substantial value in select PSU stocks, enhancing their growth prospects.

In general, companies showing better earnings visibility and comfort in valuations will benefit.

Do you expect the US Federal Reserve to continue its monetary policy easing cycle?

Recent Fed’s dot plot points to a gradual, limited easing for 2026–27, a shift from rapid easing to a measured strategy. Inflation has moderated but remains above target. The labour market shows slower job growth and GDP is projected to grow moderately.

Fed is expected to take a cautious data-driven approach, with modest cuts during the year if inflation eases and labour conditions soften.

Do you think US tariffs are likely to persist for a longer period?

India remains cautiously optimistic, with officials noting that active negotiations are underway with the US to manage and potentially ease tariff pressures through pragmatic negotiated solutions. At the same time, the US Supreme Court’s decision is still awaited. Given how long this has been ongoing, no one can predict the outcome or its timeline. We will have to wait and watch how it unfolds.

Do you expect the equity market to deliver a significant breakout, or remain range-bound in current year, given that performance has been largely flat over the past 15 months?

If earnings recovery broadens, market breadth is likely to improve. Key drivers for market performance in 2026 include positive progress on tariffs, a strengthening earnings outlook, and stable geopolitical conditions. Ultimately, the sustainability of the earnings trajectory is crucial to justify valuations and fuel a breakout in market performance. While we remain optimistic about the 2026 trend, it’s essential to closely monitor developments on the earnings front.

Do you believe this tough period will lead to the emergence of many important companies from India?

Tough times often provide opportunities for new leaders to emerge, and we really hope that this period helps Indian companies to emerge, reinvent and adapt to market shifts and become global leaders.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Focused push in Budget 2026 to fast-track PSU privatisation could be a game changer, says Entrust’s Karthik

According to Karthik S, the Head of Product and Research at Entrust Family Office, the focus in Union Budget is likely to be on fine-tuning existing schemes, reallocating spending toward high-multiplier areas, maintaining fiscal discipline, and possibly added support to export segments impacted due to tariffs.

A focused push in this budget to fast-track PSU privatisation which will unlock value, improve efficiency, and increase competitiveness could be a game changer, he believes.

On the recent rangebound market action, he is of the view that if earnings recovery broadens, market breadth is likely to improve. &quot;Key drivers for market performance in 2026 include positive progress on tariffs, a strengthening earnings outlook, and stable geopolitical conditions,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Do you expect meaningful reforms in the Union Budget, even after the government has announced several measures in recent months to boost economic and earnings growth? Which single focus area could be a game changer?

This year’s Budget will be under focus amid geopolitical tensions, and trade disruptions. With several growth-supportive measures already announced, such as continued focus on capex with faster infrastructure rollout, Direct tax benefits and GST rationalisation, expectations should hinge more towards measured reforms.

The focus is likely to be on fine-tuning existing schemes, reallocating spending toward high-multiplier areas, maintaining fiscal discipline, and possibly added support to export segments impacted due to tariffs. Maintaining continuity with selective targeted improvements could be expected rather than any sweeping changes.

A focused push in this budget to fast-track PSU privatisation which will unlock value, improve efficiency, and increase competitiveness could be a game changer.

Do you agree that PSUs offer significant upside and are now more reasonably valued than the private sector?

It is not possible to generalise. Select PSU banks and energy PSUs look attractive. PSU banks have witnessed re-rating recently benefiting from reasonable credit growth, asset book improvements, and expected NIM stability. Credit revival could potentially drive further re-rating. Energy-linked PSUs are entering an execution-led phase with more predictable cash flows.

On the other hand, few defence sector PSUs look expensive having seen significant valuation gains driven by robust order books and rising optimism on spends.

Certain segments offer attractive valuations, making 2026 a year for selective alpha. Well-managed PSUs with strong earnings visibility could deliver significant upside.

Which themes do you expect to perform well this year despite uncertain global cues?

Sectors such as banks, metals, autos, and few capital goods are poised to benefit from sustained infrastructure push, uptick in credit growth, and consumption trends. Progress on resolving tariff challenges could further accelerate export-oriented industries by providing significant tailwinds.

Additionally, energy, and select IT services remain attractive driven by increasing global demand and technological shifts. A clear policy framework on privatization could unlock substantial value in select PSU stocks, enhancing their growth prospects.

In general, companies showing better earnings visibility and comfort in valuations will benefit.

Do you expect the US Federal Reserve to continue its monetary policy easing cycle?

Recent Fed’s dot plot points to a gradual, limited easing for 2026–27, a shift from rapid easing to a measured strategy. Inflation has moderated but remains above target. The labour market shows slower job growth and GDP is projected to grow moderately.

Fed is expected to take a cautious data-driven approach, with modest cuts during the year if inflation eases and labour conditions soften.

Do you think US tariffs are likely to persist for a longer period?

India remains cautiously optimistic, with officials noting that active negotiations are underway with the US to manage and potentially ease tariff pressures through pragmatic negotiated solutions. At the same time, the US Supreme Court’s decision is still awaited. Given how long this has been ongoing, no one can predict the outcome or its timeline. We will have to wait and watch how it unfolds.

Do you expect the equity market to deliver a significant breakout, or remain range-bound in current year, given that performance has been largely flat over the past 15 months?

If earnings recovery broadens, market breadth is likely to improve. Key drivers for market performance in 2026 include positive progress on tariffs, a strengthening earnings outlook, and stable geopolitical conditions. Ultimately, the sustainability of the earnings trajectory is crucial to justify valuations and fuel a breakout in market performance. While we remain optimistic about the 2026 trend, it’s essential to closely monitor developments on the earnings front.

Do you believe this tough period will lead to the emergence of many important companies from India?

Tough times often provide opportunities for new leaders to emerge, and we really hope that this period helps Indian companies to emerge, reinvent and adapt to market shifts and become global leaders.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Intelligent investing is about discipline, balance, and risk management, Next phase of wealth creation for Indian investors will come from investing more intelligently across the world, Portfolio construction incomplete without geographic allocation

* Intelligent investing is about discipline, balance, and risk management
* Next phase of wealth creation for Indian investors will come from investing more intelligently across the world
* Portfolio construction incomplete without geographic allocation

shorts/business/global-investing-the-missing-link-in-indian-portfolios

* Intelligent investing is about discipline, balance, and risk management
* Next phase of wealth creation for Indian investors will come from investing more intelligently across the world
* Portfolio construction incomplete without geographic allocation

Over the past year, Indian equity investors have faced an uncomfortable reality. The Nifty 50 delivered returns of roughly 10%, while mid-cap and small-cap indices slipped into negative territory. This matters because the average Indian investor’s portfolio is heavily tilted toward mid and small caps. As a result, many are facing the heat even when Nifty is trading close to its all-time highs.

This phase has exposed a deeper issue in how Indian investors build portfolios. Most portfolios are equity-heavy. Even within equities, investments are often concentrated in sectoral or thematic funds. While these choices may appear diversified on the surface, they are all tied to one underlying factor, the Indian economy. When growth moderates, liquidity tightens, or valuations compress domestically, the entire portfolio feels the impact at once. This is economic concentration risk, and it is far more common than investors realize.

If we step back and examine household asset allocation, the picture becomes clearer. Equity dominates. Commodities account for barely 2% of investor participation, and exposure to global markets is almost negligible. In contrast over the past 1 year, institutional investors withdrawn money from Indian market and spread it across countries, currencies, and asset classes. Retail investors, however, remain home-biased largely due to familiarity, comfort, and historical habit.

Yet the opportunity set outside India is vast. India represents around 4% of global market capitalization. By restricting portfolios to domestic markets alone, investors are effectively ignoring 96% of listed opportunities worldwide. Over the last one year itself, several global benchmark indices have delivered returns well above India’s headline indices. This is not an argument against India as long-term growth story. It is an argument against limiting portfolios to a single geography at all the times.

This is where the concept of global investing—investing beyond India becomes relevant. Global investing allows participation in economies that are at different points in the business cycle. While one region slows, another may accelerate. While one market faces valuation compression, another may benefit from earnings expansion or policy support. Country-level ETFs now make this access simple and cost-efficient. Importantly, Indian brokerage platforms have begun enabling global investing, removing operational barriers that existed earlier.

The below chart shows how different countries benchmark indices performed compared to Nifty 50 over the past 1 year.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13777314 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260117201924_Image217012026.jpg" alt="Image217012026" width="1600" height="662" />

Currency appreciation benefit:

There is also a currency dimension that deserves attention. Over long periods, the Indian rupee has shown a structural depreciation bias against hard currencies, especially the US dollar. Global assets denominated in foreign currencies act as a natural hedge. Dollar-linked investments help protect real purchasing power. In this sense, global exposure is not only about chasing returns—it is equally about capital preservation.

Non-correlated assets:

Another crucial pillar of resilient portfolios is the inclusion of non-correlated assets. Non-correlated assets are investments whose returns do not move in tandem with equities. When stocks fall, these assets may remain stable or even rise. This reduces overall portfolio volatility and drawdowns. Commodities, global bonds, and select international equities often behave differently from domestic stocks, making them effective stabilizers during periods of stress.

Diversification of Portfolio:

Portfolio construction is incomplete without geographic allocation. Just as investors diversify across sectors and market capitalizations, they must also diversify across economies and currencies. A well-constructed portfolio should reflect global realities, not just domestic optimism.

Conclusion:

India will remain a core allocation for long-term investors, driven by demographics, consumption, and structural reforms. But intelligent investing is not about loyalty to a single market. It is about discipline, balance, and risk management. The next phase of wealth creation for Indian investors will not come from investing more aggressively in the same space, it will come from investing more intelligently across the world.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Jimeet Modi is the CEO and Founder of SAMCO Securities.

Global investing - The missing link in Indian portfolios

Over the past year, Indian equity investors have faced an uncomfortable reality. The Nifty 50 delivered returns of roughly 10%, while mid-cap and small-cap indices slipped into negative territory. This matters because the average Indian investor’s portfolio is heavily tilted toward mid and small caps. As a result, many are facing the heat even when Nifty is trading close to its all-time highs.

This phase has exposed a deeper issue in how Indian investors build portfolios. Most portfolios are equity-heavy. Even within equities, investments are often concentrated in sectoral or thematic funds. While these choices may appear diversified on the surface, they are all tied to one underlying factor, the Indian economy. When growth moderates, liquidity tightens, or valuations compress domestically, the entire portfolio feels the impact at once. This is economic concentration risk, and it is far more common than investors realize.

If we step back and examine household asset allocation, the picture becomes clearer. Equity dominates. Commodities account for barely 2% of investor participation, and exposure to global markets is almost negligible. In contrast over the past 1 year, institutional investors withdrawn money from Indian market and spread it across countries, currencies, and asset classes. Retail investors, however, remain home-biased largely due to familiarity, comfort, and historical habit.

Yet the opportunity set outside India is vast. India represents around 4% of global market capitalization. By restricting portfolios to domestic markets alone, investors are effectively ignoring 96% of listed opportunities worldwide. Over the last one year itself, several global benchmark indices have delivered returns well above India’s headline indices. This is not an argument against India as long-term growth story. It is an argument against limiting portfolios to a single geography at all the times.

This is where the concept of global investing—investing beyond India becomes relevant. Global investing allows participation in economies that are at different points in the business cycle. While one region slows, another may accelerate. While one market faces valuation compression, another may benefit from earnings expansion or policy support. Country-level ETFs now make this access simple and cost-efficient. Importantly, Indian brokerage platforms have begun enabling global investing, removing operational barriers that existed earlier.

The below chart shows how different countries benchmark indices performed compared to Nifty 50 over the past 1 year.



Currency appreciation benefit:

There is also a currency dimension that deserves attention. Over long periods, the Indian rupee has shown a structural depreciation bias against hard currencies, especially the US dollar. Global assets denominated in foreign currencies act as a natural hedge. Dollar-linked investments help protect real purchasing power. In this sense, global exposure is not only about chasing returns—it is equally about capital preservation.

Non-correlated assets:

Another crucial pillar of resilient portfolios is the inclusion of non-correlated assets. Non-correlated assets are investments whose returns do not move in tandem with equities. When stocks fall, these assets may remain stable or even rise. This reduces overall portfolio volatility and drawdowns. Commodities, global bonds, and select international equities often behave differently from domestic stocks, making them effective stabilizers during periods of stress.

Diversification of Portfolio:

Portfolio construction is incomplete without geographic allocation. Just as investors diversify across sectors and market capitalizations, they must also diversify across economies and currencies. A well-constructed portfolio should reflect global realities, not just domestic optimism.

Conclusion:

India will remain a core allocation for long-term investors, driven by demographics, consumption, and structural reforms. But intelligent investing is not about loyalty to a single market. It is about discipline, balance, and risk management. The next phase of wealth creation for Indian investors will not come from investing more aggressively in the same space, it will come from investing more intelligently across the world.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

9 out of 16 years NIFTY REALTY has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	864.53	876.07	884.48	856.12	844.58	836.17	824.63
Fibonacci	863.74	868.45	876.07	856.12	848.50	843.79	836.17
Camarilla	854.83	856.66	858.49	856.12	851.17	849.34	847.51

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY Realty

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

News

Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers