NIFTY Pharma

Momentum indicators signal bearishness, Bears likely to maintain the upper hand, Sustaining Nifty below 25,700 could open door for a decline towards 25,600, Above 25,700, 25,900–26,000 are levels to watch

* Momentum indicators signal bearishness
* Bears likely to maintain the upper hand
* Sustaining Nifty below 25,700 could open door for a decline towards 25,600
* Above 25,700, 25,900–26,000 are levels to watch

shorts/business/trade-setup-for-january-12-top-15-things-to-know-before-the-opening-bell

* Momentum indicators signal bearishness
* Bears likely to maintain the upper hand
* Sustaining Nifty below 25,700 could open door for a decline towards 25,600
* Above 25,700, 25,900–26,000 are levels to watch

The Nifty 50 appeared to be caught in a bear trap as it witnessed a downtrend throughout last week ending January 9, with major selling pressure seen in the final two sessions. Momentum indicators signalled bearishness. Hence, experts expect bears to maintain the upper hand, with the possibility of further consolidation over the next few sessions. Sustaining below 25,700 could open the door for a decline towards 25,600, the immediate support, followed by crucial support levels at 25,450 and 25,300. However, on the upside, if the index reclaims and sustains above 25,700, the 25,900–26,000 zone will be the key area to watch.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767324 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111170520_Image410012026.jpg" alt="Image410012026" width="1281" height="646" />

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html" target="_blank">Nifty 50</a> (25,683)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,870, 25,945, and 26,067

Support based on pivot points: 25,628, 25,553, and 25,431

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, accompanied by above-average volumes, indicating a continuation of the downtrend amid heightened volatility. The index fell below short- and medium-term moving averages and approached the 100-day EMA, while also trading below the lower Bollinger Bands. Momentum indicators signalled a bearish trend, with the RSI falling to 38.55 and the MACD turning negative as the histogram continued to decline. All these factors indicate sustained selling pressure and a weak short-term outlook.

2) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-bank-23.html" target="_blank">Bank Nifty</a> (59,252)

Resistance based on pivot points: 59,605, 59,744, and 59,967

Support based on pivot points: 59,158, 59,020, and 58,796

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,795, 59,950

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,082, 58,712

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also formed a red candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe and slipped below the 20-day EMA as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands, signalling that bears are gradually gaining strength. The index declined 0.73 percent amid high volumes. The RSI dropped to 47.96, while the MACD slipped below the reference line, with the histogram falling below the zero line. All these indicators suggest increasing bearish momentum.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767325 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111170542_Image510012026.jpg" alt="Image510012026" width="1281" height="646" />

3) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the weekly options data, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 2.05 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 26,200 strike (1.53 crore contracts) and 26,100 strike (1.52 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,800 strike, which saw an addition of 80.6 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,000 and 25,900 strikes, which added 66.59 lakh and 64.86 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 26,450 strike, which shed 28.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,200 and 26,400 strikes, which shed 22.65 lakh and 17.3 lakh contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767326 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111170603_Image810012026.jpg" alt="Image810012026" width="1255" height="341" />

4) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,500 strike (with 1.07 crore contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,600 strike (74.4 lakh contracts) and the 25,400 strike (74.37 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,400 strike, which saw an addition of 42.17 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,200 and 25,650 strikes, which added 35.74 lakh and 23.01 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,800 strike, which shed 30.39 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,900 and 26,100 strikes, which shed 20.28 lakh and 16.15 lakh contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767327 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111170622_Image910012026.jpg" alt="Image910012026" width="1250" height="343" />

5) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the monthly options data, the 60,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 16.46 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 59,500 strike (15.98 lakh contracts) and the 61,000 strike (7.84 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 59,500 strike (with the addition of 1.99 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,000 strike (1.78 lakh contracts) and 61,000 strike (1.02 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 61,500 strike, which shed 48,960 contracts, followed by the 60,400 and 61,400 strikes which shed 12,300 and 5,460 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767328 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111170641_Image1010012026.jpg" alt="Image1010012026" width="1257" height="340" />

6) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 59,500 strike (with 18.55 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 59,000 strike (9.26 lakh contracts) and the 60,000 strike (8.75 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 58,000 strike (which added 1.06 lakh contracts), followed by the 59,200 strike (39,330 contracts) and the 58,100 strike (37,950 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 60,000 strike, which shed 1.66 lakh contracts, followed by the 59,000 and 59,900 strikes, which shed 1.35 lakh and 75,840 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767329 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111170700_Image1110012026.jpg" alt="Image1110012026" width="1255" height="338" />

7) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Funds Flow (Rs crore)</a>

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767365 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111191457_Image2210012026.jpg" alt="Image2210012026" width="700" height="414" />

8) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Put-Call Ratio</a>

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, slipped to 0.62 on January 9 (the lowest closing level since December 18, 2024), compared to 0.66 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767331 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111170741_Image710012026.jpg" alt="Image710012026" width="1229" height="499" />

9) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/india-vix-36.html" target="_blank">India VIX</a>

The India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, continued to rise for the second straight session and moved closer to its 100-day EMA, closing 3.07 percent higher at 10.93. This marked its highest closing level since December 9 and signalled caution for bulls.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767332 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111170800_Image610012026.jpg" alt="Image610012026" width="1281" height="646" />

10) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Build-up (19 Stocks)</a>

A long build-up was seen in 19 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767361 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111191237_Image1810012026.jpg" alt="Image1810012026" width="700" height="700" />

11) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Unwinding (66 Stocks)</a>

66 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767362 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111191301_Image1910012026.jpg" alt="Image1910012026" width="700" height="700" />

12) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short Build-up (94 Stocks)</a>

94 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767363 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111191324_Image2010012026.jpg" alt="Image2010012026" width="700" height="612" />

13) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short-Covering (33 Stocks)</a>

33 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767364 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111191409_Image2110012026.jpg" alt="Image2110012026" width="700" height="700" />

14) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">High Delivery Trades</a>

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767366 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111191547_Image2310012026.jpg" alt="Image2310012026" width="700" height="729" />

15) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Stocks Under F&amp;O Ban</a>

Securities banned under the F&amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Ownership, Material Conflicts of Interest and Disciplinary History

MCD is a wholly owned subsidiary of Network 18 Media & Investments Ltd ("Network18"), in which Independent Media Trust (IMT) holds 56.89% stake. Reliance Industries Limited ("RIL") is the sole beneficiary of IMT. Network18 and RIL and their subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates can be considered as associates of MCD.

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Use of Artificial Intelligence

Trade setup for January 12: Top 15 things to know before the opening bell

The Nifty 50 appeared to be caught in a bear trap as it witnessed a downtrend throughout last week ending January 9, with major selling pressure seen in the final two sessions. Momentum indicators signalled bearishness. Hence, experts expect bears to maintain the upper hand, with the possibility of further consolidation over the next few sessions. Sustaining below 25,700 could open the door for a decline towards 25,600, the immediate support, followed by crucial support levels at 25,450 and 25,300. However, on the upside, if the index reclaims and sustains above 25,700, the 25,900–26,000 zone will be the key area to watch.



Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,683)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,870, 25,945, and 26,067

Support based on pivot points: 25,628, 25,553, and 25,431

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, accompanied by above-average volumes, indicating a continuation of the downtrend amid heightened volatility. The index fell below short- and medium-term moving averages and approached the 100-day EMA, while also trading below the lower Bollinger Bands. Momentum indicators signalled a bearish trend, with the RSI falling to 38.55 and the MACD turning negative as the histogram continued to decline. All these factors indicate sustained selling pressure and a weak short-term outlook.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (59,252)

Resistance based on pivot points: 59,605, 59,744, and 59,967

Support based on pivot points: 59,158, 59,020, and 58,796

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,795, 59,950

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 59,082, 58,712

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also formed a red candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe and slipped below the 20-day EMA as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands, signalling that bears are gradually gaining strength. The index declined 0.73 percent amid high volumes. The RSI dropped to 47.96, while the MACD slipped below the reference line, with the histogram falling below the zero line. All these indicators suggest increasing bearish momentum.



3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the weekly options data, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 2.05 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 26,200 strike (1.53 crore contracts) and 26,100 strike (1.52 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 25,800 strike, which saw an addition of 80.6 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,000 and 25,900 strikes, which added 66.59 lakh and 64.86 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 26,450 strike, which shed 28.99 lakh contracts, followed by the 26,200 and 26,400 strikes, which shed 22.65 lakh and 17.3 lakh contracts, respectively.



4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,500 strike (with 1.07 crore contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 25,600 strike (74.4 lakh contracts) and the 25,400 strike (74.37 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,400 strike, which saw an addition of 42.17 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,200 and 25,650 strikes, which added 35.74 lakh and 23.01 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 25,800 strike, which shed 30.39 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,900 and 26,100 strikes, which shed 20.28 lakh and 16.15 lakh contracts, respectively.



5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 60,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 16.46 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 59,500 strike (15.98 lakh contracts) and the 61,000 strike (7.84 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 59,500 strike (with the addition of 1.99 lakh contracts), followed by the 60,000 strike (1.78 lakh contracts) and 61,000 strike (1.02 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 61,500 strike, which shed 48,960 contracts, followed by the 60,400 and 61,400 strikes which shed 12,300 and 5,460 contracts, respectively.



6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 59,500 strike (with 18.55 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index. This was followed by the 59,000 strike (9.26 lakh contracts) and the 60,000 strike (8.75 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 58,000 strike (which added 1.06 lakh contracts), followed by the 59,200 strike (39,330 contracts) and the 58,100 strike (37,950 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 60,000 strike, which shed 1.66 lakh contracts, followed by the 59,000 and 59,900 strikes, which shed 1.35 lakh and 75,840 contracts, respectively.



7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)



8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, slipped to 0.62 on January 9 (the lowest closing level since December 18, 2024), compared to 0.66 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.



9) India VIX

The India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, continued to rise for the second straight session and moved closer to its 100-day EMA, closing 3.07 percent higher at 10.93. This marked its highest closing level since December 9 and signalled caution for bulls.



10) Long Build-up (19 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 19 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.



11) Long Unwinding (66 Stocks)

66 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.



12) Short Build-up (94 Stocks)

94 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.



13) Short-Covering (33 Stocks)

33 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.



14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.



15) Stocks Under F&amp;amp;O Ban

Securities banned under the F&amp;amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;amp;O ban: SAIL, Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Recovery in Nifty possible only on sustained move above 25,750, Follow-through selling below 25,600 next week might open doors for 200-day EMA, Sell Nifty Futures on rise around 25,970 with stop-loss above 26,100, targeting 25,700

* Recovery in Nifty possible only on sustained move above 25,750
* Follow-through selling below 25,600 next week might open doors for 200-day EMA
* Sell Nifty Futures on rise around 25,970 with stop-loss above 26,100, targeting 25,700

shorts/business/nifty-closes-at-a-43-session-low-is-it-time-to-go-short-on-every-rise

* Recovery in Nifty possible only on sustained move above 25,750
* Follow-through selling below 25,600 next week might open doors for 200-day EMA
* Sell Nifty Futures on rise around 25,970 with stop-loss above 26,100, targeting 25,700

The Nifty 50 has seen the lowest close in the last 43 trading sessions, falling 2.45 percent for the week to 25,683 with all 5 trading sessions of the week closing in red.

As far as the trend analysis is concerned, index registered lower lows by breaking swing lows of 25,878 and 25,690 due to the continuous selling in the last couple of trading sessions. This price action broke the uptrend which has been forming on daily and weekly charts. An emergence of bearish engulfing pattern at the top along with the formation of outside bar is a negative sign.

On daily charts, prices closing below 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages is definitely a negative in the near term, however, prices also almost tested the support from 100-day EMA near 25,618, making an intraday low of 25,623. A follow-through selling below 25,600 in the next week might open the doors for the prices to test 200-day EMA which is currently reading closer to 25,133.

On hourly charts, 14-period RSI reading of close to 21 displays an oversold market and some cool-off might appear for the next few trading hours at least. Any meaningful recovery is only possible on sustained move above 25,750 (being the resistance from falling trendline) above which prices might try to test the resistance zone of 25,880-25,900. On any failure to sustain above 25,750, a renewed selling could take charge and index might get ready to test next supports of 25,600 and 25,445.

Considering the fact that the trend remains down along with the weak market breadth where percentage of stocks above 20-day, 50-day and 200-day EMA is declining day by day; number of stocks making fresh 52-week lows are more than number of stocks making fresh 52-week highs, it makes sense to go short on every rise.

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rise around 25,970 with a stop-loss above 26,100, targeting 25,700.

Two stocks to watch out for the next week:

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/bandhanbank/BB09">Bandhan Bank</a> | CMP: Rs 144

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767236 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111125924_Image110012026.jpg" alt="Image110012026" width="1376" height="693" />

The price charts of Bandhan Bank have a clear cut bearish picture. It has been in constant formation of lower highs and lower lows across all major time frames, confirming a downtrend. Moreover, the stock is consistently trading below all it’s major exponential moving averages viz. 20-day, 50-day, 10-day and 200-day. Each and every rally in the stock gets sold off and never got any concrete buying interest from investors, suggesting strongly bearish price action.

Now, that the prices have formed a fresh supply zone of Rs 148 to Rs 152 and prices making lower highs and lower lows on shorter time frames, it makes sense to take a short trade in the stock. The reading of 14-period RSI around 42 gives sellers a comfort as it’s still above oversold zone. As we have earnings announcement for the stock on January 16, a swift move towards the direction of short term and longer term downtrend is expected to happen. At the same time, risk needs to be managed, so, instead of short selling futures, traders are advised to take buy positions in Put options of Bandhan Bank.

Strategy: Buy Bandhan Bank 150 PE (January 27 expiry) on dips around Rs 5.5 with the stop-loss of Rs 3, targeting Rs 11 and Rs 15 levels in the coming 6-7 trading sessions.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/power-generationdistribution/suzlonenergy/SE17">Suzlon Energy</a> | CMP: Rs 49.2

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13767235 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260111125839_Image210012026.jpg" alt="Image210012026" width="1376" height="693" />

Suzlon has entered into a correction phase since the formation of top around Rs 86 levels on September 12, 2024. The stock is consistently trading below all it’s major exponential moving averages viz. 20-day, 50-day, 10-day and 200-day and we have an imminent downtrend established with the formation of lower highs and lower lows. Also, the stock has closed at its lowest since June 20, 2024.

Now that the prices have exhibited bearish flag pattern on daily charts with the breakdown happening with rising volumes, it makes sense to take a short selling position in the stock futures. The 14-period RSI still reads above oversold zone and there’s still room for bears to take the prices further lower. Any bounce towards previous supports of Rs 50.60 levels will be a selling opportunity as previous supports turn into resistances.

Strategy: Sell Suzlon Futures (January 27 Expiry) on rise around Rs 50.6 with the stop-loss of Rs 52.60, targeting Rs 46 and Rs 43.5 levels in the coming 3 weeks.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Aditya Thukral is the Founder &amp; Analyst at AT Research &amp; Risk Managers.

Nifty closes at a 43-session low: Is it time to go short on every rise?

The Nifty 50 has seen the lowest close in the last 43 trading sessions, falling 2.45 percent for the week to 25,683 with all 5 trading sessions of the week closing in red.

As far as the trend analysis is concerned, index registered lower lows by breaking swing lows of 25,878 and 25,690 due to the continuous selling in the last couple of trading sessions. This price action broke the uptrend which has been forming on daily and weekly charts. An emergence of bearish engulfing pattern at the top along with the formation of outside bar is a negative sign.

On daily charts, prices closing below 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages is definitely a negative in the near term, however, prices also almost tested the support from 100-day EMA near 25,618, making an intraday low of 25,623. A follow-through selling below 25,600 in the next week might open the doors for the prices to test 200-day EMA which is currently reading closer to 25,133.

On hourly charts, 14-period RSI reading of close to 21 displays an oversold market and some cool-off might appear for the next few trading hours at least. Any meaningful recovery is only possible on sustained move above 25,750 (being the resistance from falling trendline) above which prices might try to test the resistance zone of 25,880-25,900. On any failure to sustain above 25,750, a renewed selling could take charge and index might get ready to test next supports of 25,600 and 25,445.

Considering the fact that the trend remains down along with the weak market breadth where percentage of stocks above 20-day, 50-day and 200-day EMA is declining day by day; number of stocks making fresh 52-week lows are more than number of stocks making fresh 52-week highs, it makes sense to go short on every rise.

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures on rise around 25,970 with a stop-loss above 26,100, targeting 25,700.

Two stocks to watch out for the next week:

Bandhan Bank | CMP: Rs 144



The price charts of Bandhan Bank have a clear cut bearish picture. It has been in constant formation of lower highs and lower lows across all major time frames, confirming a downtrend. Moreover, the stock is consistently trading below all it’s major exponential moving averages viz. 20-day, 50-day, 10-day and 200-day. Each and every rally in the stock gets sold off and never got any concrete buying interest from investors, suggesting strongly bearish price action.

Now, that the prices have formed a fresh supply zone of Rs 148 to Rs 152 and prices making lower highs and lower lows on shorter time frames, it makes sense to take a short trade in the stock. The reading of 14-period RSI around 42 gives sellers a comfort as it’s still above oversold zone. As we have earnings announcement for the stock on January 16, a swift move towards the direction of short term and longer term downtrend is expected to happen. At the same time, risk needs to be managed, so, instead of short selling futures, traders are advised to take buy positions in Put options of Bandhan Bank.

Strategy: Buy Bandhan Bank 150 PE (January 27 expiry) on dips around Rs 5.5 with the stop-loss of Rs 3, targeting Rs 11 and Rs 15 levels in the coming 6-7 trading sessions.

Suzlon Energy | CMP: Rs 49.2



Suzlon has entered into a correction phase since the formation of top around Rs 86 levels on September 12, 2024. The stock is consistently trading below all it’s major exponential moving averages viz. 20-day, 50-day, 10-day and 200-day and we have an imminent downtrend established with the formation of lower highs and lower lows. Also, the stock has closed at its lowest since June 20, 2024.

Now that the prices have exhibited bearish flag pattern on daily charts with the breakdown happening with rising volumes, it makes sense to take a short selling position in the stock futures. The 14-period RSI still reads above oversold zone and there’s still room for bears to take the prices further lower. Any bounce towards previous supports of Rs 50.60 levels will be a selling opportunity as previous supports turn into resistances.

Strategy: Sell Suzlon Futures (January 27 Expiry) on rise around Rs 50.6 with the stop-loss of Rs 52.60, targeting Rs 46 and Rs 43.5 levels in the coming 3 weeks.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Technical setup signals further downside in Nifty 50, Nifty Auto, See 25,500–25,450 as immediate support, Any rebound likely to encounter strong supply in 25,900–25,950 band, limiting recovery attempts, Broader markets also showing signs of strain, Bet on Ipca Laboratories, IDFC First Bank for next week, Union Bank of India appears well-positioned to extend its ongoing uptrend, Auto index likely to slide into period of consolidation for now

* Technical setup signals further downside in Nifty 50, Nifty Auto
* See 25,500–25,450 as immediate support
* Any rebound likely to encounter strong supply in 25,900–25,950 band, limiting recovery attempts
* Broader markets also showing signs of strain
* Bet on Ipca Laboratories, IDFC First Bank for next week
* Union Bank of India appears well-positioned to extend its ongoing uptrend
* Auto index likely to slide into period of consolidation for now

shorts/business/chartist-talk-nifty-50-nifty-auto-signal-more-downside-bet-on-these-2-stocks-next-week-says-sudeep-shah

* Technical setup signals further downside in Nifty 50, Nifty Auto
* See 25,500–25,450 as immediate support
* Any rebound likely to encounter strong supply in 25,900–25,950 band, limiting recovery attempts
* Broader markets also showing signs of strain
* Bet on Ipca Laboratories, IDFC First Bank for next week
* Union Bank of India appears well-positioned to extend its ongoing uptrend
* Auto index likely to slide into period of consolidation for now

From a technical standpoint, the damage in Nifty 50 appears meaningful and this evolving technical setup points to the possibility of further downside in the near term, said Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Broader markets are also showing signs of strain. This widespread deterioration highlights a clear contraction in risk appetite, reinforcing the need for a cautious, defensive, and highly selective approach in the near term, he said.

Despite this weakness in frontline index, Sudeep Shah bets on Ipca Laboratories, and IDFC First Bank. "Ipca Labs has confirmed a clear horizontal trendline resistance breakout, supported by a strong follow-through move and a noticeable surge in volumes, underscoring genuine buying interest," he said.

Are you confident that bears will not easily give up control of the market, considering the bloodbath witnessed during the past week?

After registering a new all-time high at the start of the week, the Nifty witnessed a sharp change in character, reversing direction and closing the week with a steep decline of nearly 2.5%—its most pronounced weekly drop since September 2025.

What makes this move particularly noteworthy is the persistent supply pressure reflected in four consecutive gap-down openings, underscoring sustained selling interest. The bulk of the decline unfolded during the final two trading sessions, raising an important question: is this merely a routine correction, or the early signs of a deeper trend reversal?

From a technical standpoint, the damage appears meaningful. The index has confirmed a breakdown below the neckline of an Adam &amp; Adam Double Top formation, a development that often signals a shift in market structure.

Adding to the weakness, Nifty has slipped decisively below both its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. The 50-day EMA—an important support zone that had repeatedly cushioned declines since October 2025—has now been breached, increasing downside vulnerability.

The index is currently hovering near its 100-day EMA, while momentum indicators continue to deteriorate. The daily RSI has dropped below the 40 mark for the first time since September 2025 and remains in a downward trajectory, reflecting fading bullish momentum.

This evolving technical setup points to the possibility of further downside in the near term. On the support front, the 25,500–25,450 region stands out as the immediate cushion. A decisive break below 25,450 could accelerate selling pressure and drag the index towards the 25,200 zone. On the upside, any rebound is likely to encounter strong supply in the 25,900–25,950 band, limiting recovery attempts.

Importantly, the weakness is not confined to the frontline index. Broader markets are also showing signs of strain, with the Nifty Midcap 100 slipping below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 continues to trade beneath all its key moving averages. This widespread deterioration highlights a clear contraction in risk appetite, reinforcing the need for a cautious, defensive, and highly selective approach in the near term.

Now that Bank Nifty has also joined the Nifty 50’s decline, do you observe a Dark Cloud Cover formation on the weekly charts? Do you see the possibility of Bank Nifty breaking below the 58,700–58,600 levels next week?

Despite ending the week with a decline of nearly 1.5%, Bank Nifty displayed relative resilience by outperforming the broader market, which witnessed a much sharper sell-off. That said, the weekly chart has started to flash early warning signs, with the formation of a Dark Cloud Cover pattern—often interpreted as a shift in near-term sentiment from optimism to caution.

The short-term technical structure has weakened further as the index slipped below its 20-day EMA. Momentum indicators are also losing steam: the daily RSI has dropped below its 9-day average and continues to trend lower, while the fast stochastic has crossed beneath the slow stochastic, suggesting diminishing upside momentum.

From a levels perspective, the 58,700–58,600 zone emerges as a crucial support, coinciding with the recent swing low. A decisive breakdown below 58,600 could open the door for a deeper retracement toward 58,000, and subsequently 57,500 in the short term. On the recovery side, the 59,700–59,800 region is likely to act as a stiff resistance, and only a convincing move above this band would restore bullish bias.

What are your top two stock picks for the coming week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/pharmaceuticals/ipcalaboratories/IL">Ipca Laboratories</a>

Ipca Laboratories had been facing stiff resistance in the Rs 1,520–1,550 zone, repeatedly failing to decisively break above this area since early February last year. Now, the stock has confirmed a clear horizontal trendline resistance breakout on the daily chart, supported by a strong follow-through move and a noticeable surge in volumes, underscoring genuine buying interest.

The DI+ crossing above DI– on the ADX points to strengthening bullish trend momentum. Bollinger Bands, which had been contracting, have now started to widen, signalling an expansion in volatility and the beginning of a fresh directional move. With the stock closing above the upper Bollinger Band for three consecutive sessions, Ipca Laboratories continues to display strong upside traction and a clearly bullish setup. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,575-1,565 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,520. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,680 in the short term.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/idfcfirstbank/IDF01">IDFC First Bank</a>

IDFC First Bank has been moving in a narrow consolidation band of Rs 83–87 since December 19. Despite this prolonged sideways phase, the stock has comfortably remained above its 20-day EMA, which has emerged as a strong dynamic support. Additionally, the middle Bollinger Band has consistently cushioned declines, reflecting steady buying interest on minor dips.

On a relative performance basis, the IDFC First Bank–Nifty ratio chart has witnessed a decisive breakout from its consolidation zone, signalling the likelihood of upcoming outperformance against the broader market. Momentum indicators further support this view, with the RSI trending upward and suggesting gradual strengthening in price momentum.

Given this constructive setup, the stock appears well-positioned for a potential upside breakout. We recommend accumulating IDFC First Bank in the Rs 86–84 range, keeping a stop-loss at Rs 82. On the upside, the stock has the potential to move towards Rs 90 level in the near term.

Do you think <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aluminium/nationalaluminiumcompany/NAC">National Aluminium Company</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/auto-lcvshcvs/ashokleyland/AL">Ashok Leyland</a> are currently looking overbought?

National Aluminium and Ashok Leyland continue to trade within well-defined uptrends, supported by sustained strength in the Metals and Auto sectors, both of which are maintaining higher-high, higher-low structures. On the daily charts, both stocks are positioned firmly above their key moving averages, reflecting strong underlying momentum and a constructive price setup.

However, momentum indicators are flashing signs of near-term overheating. RSI levels hovering around 74 indicate overbought conditions, while elevated ADX readings above 60 point to an exceptionally strong trend that may be approaching a maturity phase. As a result, the risk of short-term consolidation or profit-taking has increased following the recent sharp upmove.

Do you see a continuation of the rally in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/ausmallfinancebank/ASF02">AU Small Finance Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/unionbankindia/UBI01">Union Bank of India</a>?

Union Bank of India appears well-positioned to extend its ongoing uptrend. The stock has confirmed a breakout above a falling trendline on the daily chart, supported by strong volumes — a clear sign of conviction behind the move. The ADX is trending higher, indicating strengthening trend momentum, while the MACD remains comfortably above both its signal line and the zero line, keeping the bullish bias intact. After a brief consolidation over the past two sessions, a sustained move beyond the Rs 165–167 zone could act as a trigger for the next phase of the rally.

AU Small Finance Bank, after a sharp advance, has entered a healthy consolidation phase. The stock continues to trade above its 20-day EMA, which is providing reliable dynamic support. With both ADX and MACD flattening out, the price action suggests consolidation rather than any meaningful reversal. As long as the stock holds above the 20-day EMA, a breakout past the Rs 1,025 level could open the door for further upside.

Are you maintaining a bullish view on the Nifty Auto index?

After the sharp upside rally, the Nifty Auto has formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern on a weekly scale, which is clearly suggesting bearish sentiment. Also, the index has slipped below its 20-day EMA level and the daily RSI is slipped in sideways zone.

Hence, we believe, the Auto index is likely to slide into the period of consolidation for now.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist Talk: Nifty 50, Nifty Auto signal more downside; bet on these 2 stocks next week, says Sudeep Shah

From a technical standpoint, the damage in Nifty 50 appears meaningful and this evolving technical setup points to the possibility of further downside in the near term, said Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Broader markets are also showing signs of strain. This widespread deterioration highlights a clear contraction in risk appetite, reinforcing the need for a cautious, defensive, and highly selective approach in the near term, he said.

Despite this weakness in frontline index, Sudeep Shah bets on Ipca Laboratories, and IDFC First Bank. &quot;Ipca Labs has confirmed a clear horizontal trendline resistance breakout, supported by a strong follow-through move and a noticeable surge in volumes, underscoring genuine buying interest,&quot; he said.

Are you confident that bears will not easily give up control of the market, considering the bloodbath witnessed during the past week?

After registering a new all-time high at the start of the week, the Nifty witnessed a sharp change in character, reversing direction and closing the week with a steep decline of nearly 2.5%—its most pronounced weekly drop since September 2025.

What makes this move particularly noteworthy is the persistent supply pressure reflected in four consecutive gap-down openings, underscoring sustained selling interest. The bulk of the decline unfolded during the final two trading sessions, raising an important question: is this merely a routine correction, or the early signs of a deeper trend reversal?

From a technical standpoint, the damage appears meaningful. The index has confirmed a breakdown below the neckline of an Adam &amp;amp; Adam Double Top formation, a development that often signals a shift in market structure.

Adding to the weakness, Nifty has slipped decisively below both its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. The 50-day EMA—an important support zone that had repeatedly cushioned declines since October 2025—has now been breached, increasing downside vulnerability.

The index is currently hovering near its 100-day EMA, while momentum indicators continue to deteriorate. The daily RSI has dropped below the 40 mark for the first time since September 2025 and remains in a downward trajectory, reflecting fading bullish momentum.

This evolving technical setup points to the possibility of further downside in the near term. On the support front, the 25,500–25,450 region stands out as the immediate cushion. A decisive break below 25,450 could accelerate selling pressure and drag the index towards the 25,200 zone. On the upside, any rebound is likely to encounter strong supply in the 25,900–25,950 band, limiting recovery attempts.

Importantly, the weakness is not confined to the frontline index. Broader markets are also showing signs of strain, with the Nifty Midcap 100 slipping below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 continues to trade beneath all its key moving averages. This widespread deterioration highlights a clear contraction in risk appetite, reinforcing the need for a cautious, defensive, and highly selective approach in the near term.

Now that Bank Nifty has also joined the Nifty 50’s decline, do you observe a Dark Cloud Cover formation on the weekly charts? Do you see the possibility of Bank Nifty breaking below the 58,700–58,600 levels next week?

Despite ending the week with a decline of nearly 1.5%, Bank Nifty displayed relative resilience by outperforming the broader market, which witnessed a much sharper sell-off. That said, the weekly chart has started to flash early warning signs, with the formation of a Dark Cloud Cover pattern—often interpreted as a shift in near-term sentiment from optimism to caution.

The short-term technical structure has weakened further as the index slipped below its 20-day EMA. Momentum indicators are also losing steam: the daily RSI has dropped below its 9-day average and continues to trend lower, while the fast stochastic has crossed beneath the slow stochastic, suggesting diminishing upside momentum.

From a levels perspective, the 58,700–58,600 zone emerges as a crucial support, coinciding with the recent swing low. A decisive breakdown below 58,600 could open the door for a deeper retracement toward 58,000, and subsequently 57,500 in the short term. On the recovery side, the 59,700–59,800 region is likely to act as a stiff resistance, and only a convincing move above this band would restore bullish bias.

What are your top two stock picks for the coming week?

Ipca Laboratories

Ipca Laboratories had been facing stiff resistance in the Rs 1,520–1,550 zone, repeatedly failing to decisively break above this area since early February last year. Now, the stock has confirmed a clear horizontal trendline resistance breakout on the daily chart, supported by a strong follow-through move and a noticeable surge in volumes, underscoring genuine buying interest.

The DI+ crossing above DI– on the ADX points to strengthening bullish trend momentum. Bollinger Bands, which had been contracting, have now started to widen, signalling an expansion in volatility and the beginning of a fresh directional move. With the stock closing above the upper Bollinger Band for three consecutive sessions, Ipca Laboratories continues to display strong upside traction and a clearly bullish setup. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,575-1,565 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,520. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,680 in the short term.

IDFC First Bank

IDFC First Bank has been moving in a narrow consolidation band of Rs 83–87 since December 19. Despite this prolonged sideways phase, the stock has comfortably remained above its 20-day EMA, which has emerged as a strong dynamic support. Additionally, the middle Bollinger Band has consistently cushioned declines, reflecting steady buying interest on minor dips.

On a relative performance basis, the IDFC First Bank–Nifty ratio chart has witnessed a decisive breakout from its consolidation zone, signalling the likelihood of upcoming outperformance against the broader market. Momentum indicators further support this view, with the RSI trending upward and suggesting gradual strengthening in price momentum.

Given this constructive setup, the stock appears well-positioned for a potential upside breakout. We recommend accumulating IDFC First Bank in the Rs 86–84 range, keeping a stop-loss at Rs 82. On the upside, the stock has the potential to move towards Rs 90 level in the near term.

Do you think National Aluminium Company and Ashok Leyland are currently looking overbought?

National Aluminium and Ashok Leyland continue to trade within well-defined uptrends, supported by sustained strength in the Metals and Auto sectors, both of which are maintaining higher-high, higher-low structures. On the daily charts, both stocks are positioned firmly above their key moving averages, reflecting strong underlying momentum and a constructive price setup.

However, momentum indicators are flashing signs of near-term overheating. RSI levels hovering around 74 indicate overbought conditions, while elevated ADX readings above 60 point to an exceptionally strong trend that may be approaching a maturity phase. As a result, the risk of short-term consolidation or profit-taking has increased following the recent sharp upmove.

Do you see a continuation of the rally in AU Small Finance Bank and Union Bank of India?

Union Bank of India appears well-positioned to extend its ongoing uptrend. The stock has confirmed a breakout above a falling trendline on the daily chart, supported by strong volumes — a clear sign of conviction behind the move. The ADX is trending higher, indicating strengthening trend momentum, while the MACD remains comfortably above both its signal line and the zero line, keeping the bullish bias intact. After a brief consolidation over the past two sessions, a sustained move beyond the Rs 165–167 zone could act as a trigger for the next phase of the rally.

AU Small Finance Bank, after a sharp advance, has entered a healthy consolidation phase. The stock continues to trade above its 20-day EMA, which is providing reliable dynamic support. With both ADX and MACD flattening out, the price action suggests consolidation rather than any meaningful reversal. As long as the stock holds above the 20-day EMA, a breakout past the Rs 1,025 level could open the door for further upside.

Are you maintaining a bullish view on the Nifty Auto index?

After the sharp upside rally, the Nifty Auto has formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern on a weekly scale, which is clearly suggesting bearish sentiment. Also, the index has slipped below its 20-day EMA level and the daily RSI is slipped in sideways zone.

Hence, we believe, the Auto index is likely to slide into the period of consolidation for now.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Budget 2026 likely to focus on public capex continuity, jobs, fiscal credibility, Real estate can be a dark horse, IT a credible contrarian bet for 2026, New-age digital firms to raise economy’s potential growth rate by improving productivity across sectors, Compelling bet for 2026 remains domestic cyclicals linked to capex and manufacturing, Premiumisation trends in autos, travel, discretionary retail, and services remain intact, Copper has credible upside risk over medium term

* Budget 2026 likely to focus on public capex continuity, jobs, fiscal credibility
* Real estate can be a dark horse, IT a credible contrarian bet for 2026
* New-age digital firms to raise economy’s potential growth rate by improving productivity across sectors
* Compelling bet for 2026 remains domestic cyclicals linked to capex and manufacturing
* Premiumisation trends in autos, travel, discretionary retail, and services remain intact
* Copper has credible upside risk over medium term

shorts/business/daily-voice-budget-2026-to-focus-on-capex-continuity-jobs-human-capital-and-fiscal-credibility-pradeep-gupta-anand-rathi

* Budget 2026 likely to focus on public capex continuity, jobs, fiscal credibility
* Real estate can be a dark horse, IT a credible contrarian bet for 2026
* New-age digital firms to raise economy’s potential growth rate by improving productivity across sectors
* Compelling bet for 2026 remains domestic cyclicals linked to capex and manufacturing
* Premiumisation trends in autos, travel, discretionary retail, and services remain intact
* Copper has credible upside risk over medium term

According to Pradeep Gupta, the Chairman &amp; MD at Anand Rathi Share &amp; Stock Brokers, the Budget 2026 is likely to focus on three themes--public capex continuity, jobs and human capital, fiscal credibility.

Together, these priorities reflect an emphasis on durable, domestically driven growth rather than short-term stimulus, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes the real estate can indeed be a dark horse as unlike past cycles, the current upturn is largely end-user driven, not speculative. IT, on the other hand, is a credible contrarian bet, he said.

Will India’s journey beyond a $4 trillion economy be supported by new-age digital companies?

Yes, but their contribution should be seen less as a standalone GDP engine and more as a force multiplier for productivity, efficiency, and formalisation across the economy. India’s digital economy has already reached a low-teens share of GDP, and its growth rate is meaningfully higher than headline GDP growth.

Platforms such as digital payments, e- commerce, SaaS, logistics-tech, and enterprise software are lowering transaction costs, improving compliance, and expanding market access for MSMEs.

The most visible example is digital public infrastructure. UPI has scaled to over 20 billion monthly transactions, bringing millions of small merchants and households into the formal financial system. This improves tax compliance, credit underwriting, and consumption visibility.

Similarly, digital lending, GST-based invoicing, and cloud adoption are improving capital efficiency in traditional sectors. In that sense, new-age digital companies will not replace manufacturing or services as growth drivers—but they materially raise the economy’s potential growth rate by improving productivity across sectors.

What is the pecking order in terms of the top three sectoral bets for the current year?

The first and most compelling bet remains domestic cyclicals linked to capex and manufacturing. India’s growth continues to be domestically driven, supported by sustained public capital expenditure in infrastructure, defence, railways, energy transition, and logistics. Manufacturing growth has stabilised at healthy levels, and the crowding-in of private capex is gradually becoming visible. Balance sheets in capital goods and industrial companies are significantly stronger than in previous cycles.

Second are financials, particularly well-capitalised banks and select insurers. Credit growth remains robust, driven by retail, MSMEs, and services. Importantly, asset quality is benign, capital adequacy is comfortable, and return ratios are structurally higher than a decade ago. Financials also remain the most direct beneficiary of formalisation and rising financial penetration.

Third is select consumption, rather than broad-based consumption. Premiumisation trends in autos, travel, discretionary retail, and services remain intact, while mass consumption is recovering gradually. Companies with pricing power, brand strength, and efficient distribution are better positioned than those dependent purely on volume growth.

Do you expect a pickup in momentum in pharma stocks, which have faced an overhang from US policy changes?

A selective recovery in pharma is likely, rather than a broad-based rally. India’s pharmaceutical exports continue to grow at a steady high single-digit pace, with the US accounting for roughly one-third of exports. Structural drivers—ageing populations, chronic therapies, and cost pressures in developed markets—continue to favour generics and complex formulations.

That said, the overhang from US policy changes, pricing pressure, and regulatory scrutiny has not disappeared. Therefore, leadership will likely come from companies with complex generics, specialty products, strong compliance records, and diversified revenue streams, rather than commodity-style players. The sector’s earnings visibility is improving, but differentiation is critical.

Is real estate a dark horse and IT a contrarian bet?

Real estate can indeed be a dark horse. Unlike past cycles, the current upturn is largely end-user driven, not speculative. Residential registrations in key markets are at multi-year highs, inventory levels are moderate, and developers’ balance sheets are significantly cleaner.

Consolidation has benefited organised players, improving pricing discipline and return ratios. With urbanisation, premiumisation, and better financing access, the sector’s earnings cycle looks structurally healthier.

IT, on the other hand, is a credible contrarian bet. Growth expectations are already low, valuations have normalised, and headcount growth has slowed. Any stabilisation in global IT spending—particularly in BFSI and discretionary tech—can lead to operating leverage and earnings upgrades. However, recovery will likely be gradual and uneven, with greater divergence between companies aligned with cloud, data, and AI versus legacy application maintenance.

Do you expect, by any chance, the RBI to slash interest rates up to the 4 percent mark in the current year, considering growth is a top priority?

This is unlikely under normal conditions. While growth is a priority, a move to 4% would imply an additional 125 basis points of rate cuts, typically seen only during periods of severe growth or financial stress. Inflation dynamics, global financial conditions, and currency stability remain important constraints.

A more realistic scenario is measured easing, where monetary policy remains supportive without becoming excessively accommodative. The RBI’s approach has consistently emphasised balance—supporting growth while anchoring inflation expectations and safeguarding financial stability.

Do you see a continuation of strong money flows into quick commerce companies?

Yes, but the nature of capital deployment will change. Early-stage growth-at-any-cost funding is giving way to selective capital allocation focused on unit economics, density advantages, and customer retention. Quick commerce has demonstrated strong consumer adoption in urban India, driven by convenience and high-frequency use cases.

Going forward, market leadership will depend on store-level profitability, logistics efficiency, and repeat consumption, rather than headline GMV (gross merchandie value) growth. Flows are likely to continue, but with sharper differentiation between leaders and marginal players.

Do you expect copper to surprise in the current year as demand outpaces supply?

Copper has credible upside risk over the medium term. Electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and grid investments are all copper-intensive, while supply additions face long gestation periods and geopolitical constraints. Even modest demand surprises can tighten the market.

That said, near-term prices will remain volatile, influenced by global growth, China’s demand cycle, and inventory movements. The more plausible surprise is sustained tightness rather than a straight-line rally.

What could be the key focus areas in the upcoming Union Budget?

The Budget is likely to focus on three themes. First, continuity in public capex, particularly in infrastructure, defence, energy transition, and logistics, to sustain the investment cycle. Second, jobs and human capital, including skills, MSME productivity, and urban infrastructure, to translate growth into employment.

Third, fiscal credibility, maintaining the consolidation glide path while preserving growth support. Together, these priorities reflect an emphasis on durable, domestically driven growth rather than short-term stimulus.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice | Budget 2026 to focus on capex continuity, jobs, human capital and fiscal credibility: Pradeep Gupta, Anand Rathi

According to Pradeep Gupta, the Chairman &amp;amp; MD at Anand Rathi Share &amp;amp; Stock Brokers, the Budget 2026 is likely to focus on three themes--public capex continuity, jobs and human capital, fiscal credibility.

Together, these priorities reflect an emphasis on durable, domestically driven growth rather than short-term stimulus, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes the real estate can indeed be a dark horse as unlike past cycles, the current upturn is largely end-user driven, not speculative. IT, on the other hand, is a credible contrarian bet, he said.

Will India’s journey beyond a $4 trillion economy be supported by new-age digital companies?

Yes, but their contribution should be seen less as a standalone GDP engine and more as a force multiplier for productivity, efficiency, and formalisation across the economy. India’s digital economy has already reached a low-teens share of GDP, and its growth rate is meaningfully higher than headline GDP growth.

Platforms such as digital payments, e- commerce, SaaS, logistics-tech, and enterprise software are lowering transaction costs, improving compliance, and expanding market access for MSMEs.

The most visible example is digital public infrastructure. UPI has scaled to over 20 billion monthly transactions, bringing millions of small merchants and households into the formal financial system. This improves tax compliance, credit underwriting, and consumption visibility.

Similarly, digital lending, GST-based invoicing, and cloud adoption are improving capital efficiency in traditional sectors. In that sense, new-age digital companies will not replace manufacturing or services as growth drivers—but they materially raise the economy’s potential growth rate by improving productivity across sectors.

What is the pecking order in terms of the top three sectoral bets for the current year?

The first and most compelling bet remains domestic cyclicals linked to capex and manufacturing. India’s growth continues to be domestically driven, supported by sustained public capital expenditure in infrastructure, defence, railways, energy transition, and logistics. Manufacturing growth has stabilised at healthy levels, and the crowding-in of private capex is gradually becoming visible. Balance sheets in capital goods and industrial companies are significantly stronger than in previous cycles.

Second are financials, particularly well-capitalised banks and select insurers. Credit growth remains robust, driven by retail, MSMEs, and services. Importantly, asset quality is benign, capital adequacy is comfortable, and return ratios are structurally higher than a decade ago. Financials also remain the most direct beneficiary of formalisation and rising financial penetration.

Third is select consumption, rather than broad-based consumption. Premiumisation trends in autos, travel, discretionary retail, and services remain intact, while mass consumption is recovering gradually. Companies with pricing power, brand strength, and efficient distribution are better positioned than those dependent purely on volume growth.

Do you expect a pickup in momentum in pharma stocks, which have faced an overhang from US policy changes?

A selective recovery in pharma is likely, rather than a broad-based rally. India’s pharmaceutical exports continue to grow at a steady high single-digit pace, with the US accounting for roughly one-third of exports. Structural drivers—ageing populations, chronic therapies, and cost pressures in developed markets—continue to favour generics and complex formulations.

That said, the overhang from US policy changes, pricing pressure, and regulatory scrutiny has not disappeared. Therefore, leadership will likely come from companies with complex generics, specialty products, strong compliance records, and diversified revenue streams, rather than commodity-style players. The sector’s earnings visibility is improving, but differentiation is critical.

Is real estate a dark horse and IT a contrarian bet?

Real estate can indeed be a dark horse. Unlike past cycles, the current upturn is largely end-user driven, not speculative. Residential registrations in key markets are at multi-year highs, inventory levels are moderate, and developers’ balance sheets are significantly cleaner.

Consolidation has benefited organised players, improving pricing discipline and return ratios. With urbanisation, premiumisation, and better financing access, the sector’s earnings cycle looks structurally healthier.

IT, on the other hand, is a credible contrarian bet. Growth expectations are already low, valuations have normalised, and headcount growth has slowed. Any stabilisation in global IT spending—particularly in BFSI and discretionary tech—can lead to operating leverage and earnings upgrades. However, recovery will likely be gradual and uneven, with greater divergence between companies aligned with cloud, data, and AI versus legacy application maintenance.

Do you expect, by any chance, the RBI to slash interest rates up to the 4 percent mark in the current year, considering growth is a top priority?

This is unlikely under normal conditions. While growth is a priority, a move to 4% would imply an additional 125 basis points of rate cuts, typically seen only during periods of severe growth or financial stress. Inflation dynamics, global financial conditions, and currency stability remain important constraints.

A more realistic scenario is measured easing, where monetary policy remains supportive without becoming excessively accommodative. The RBI’s approach has consistently emphasised balance—supporting growth while anchoring inflation expectations and safeguarding financial stability.

Do you see a continuation of strong money flows into quick commerce companies?

Yes, but the nature of capital deployment will change. Early-stage growth-at-any-cost funding is giving way to selective capital allocation focused on unit economics, density advantages, and customer retention. Quick commerce has demonstrated strong consumer adoption in urban India, driven by convenience and high-frequency use cases.

Going forward, market leadership will depend on store-level profitability, logistics efficiency, and repeat consumption, rather than headline GMV (gross merchandie value) growth. Flows are likely to continue, but with sharper differentiation between leaders and marginal players.

Do you expect copper to surprise in the current year as demand outpaces supply?

Copper has credible upside risk over the medium term. Electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles, and grid investments are all copper-intensive, while supply additions face long gestation periods and geopolitical constraints. Even modest demand surprises can tighten the market.

That said, near-term prices will remain volatile, influenced by global growth, China’s demand cycle, and inventory movements. The more plausible surprise is sustained tightness rather than a straight-line rally.

What could be the key focus areas in the upcoming Union Budget?

The Budget is likely to focus on three themes. First, continuity in public capex, particularly in infrastructure, defence, energy transition, and logistics, to sustain the investment cycle. Second, jobs and human capital, including skills, MSME productivity, and urban infrastructure, to translate growth into employment.

Third, fiscal credibility, maintaining the consolidation glide path while preserving growth support. Together, these priorities reflect an emphasis on durable, domestically driven growth rather than short-term stimulus.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Indian markets posted worst weekly loss in 3 months amid global and FII concerns, Small-cap index dropped 4%, lagging behind mid- and large-cap indices., Nifty trend remains weak; further downside possible if support at 25,700 breaks

* Indian markets posted worst weekly loss in 3 months amid global and FII concerns
* Small-cap index dropped 4%, lagging behind mid- and large-cap indices.
* Nifty trend remains weak; further downside possible if support at 25,700 breaks

Indian markets saw their worst week in over three months, with major indices falling amid global tensions, FII selling, and tariff concerns. Nifty’s trend remains weak, with possible further declines, while volatility is expected to persist near term.

shorts/business/90-smallcaps-sink-in-double-digits-as-index-underperforms

* Indian markets posted worst weekly loss in 3 months amid global and FII concerns
* Small-cap index dropped 4%, lagging behind mid- and large-cap indices.
* Nifty trend remains weak; further downside possible if support at 25,700 breaks

Broader market indices remained under pressure during the week, with mid- and large-cap indices declining around 2.5 percent each, while the small-cap index fell nearly 4 percent, significantly underperforming the benchmark indices. The markets posted their worst weekly performance in over three months, weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions, persistent FII selling, and concerns over potential US tariffs.

BSE Sensex index slipped 2,185.77 points or 2.54 percent at 83,576.24, while Nifty50 index shed 193.55 points or 2.45 percent at 25,683.30.

Sectorally, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas, Nifty Energy, and Nifty Infra indices declined 4–5 percent during the week. Nifty Metal, Realty, Media, and Auto indices also remained under pressure, each slipping more than 2 percent. In contrast, the Nifty Defence index gained 1.3 percent, while the Nifty Consumer Durables index rose 1 percent.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to remain net sellers during the week, offloading equities worth Rs 9,209.90 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided support to the market, purchasing equities worth Rs 17,594.58 crore.

"Indian equities navigated the first full week of 2026 with caution, reflecting a corrective undertone. The week began on a muted note as expectations of higher government borrowing drove bond yields upward, though strong GST collections and healthy bank credit growth provided some support. Market sentiment, however, weakened amid global headwinds, including the Venezuela–US standoff, concerns over Russian oil imports, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and continued FII outflows," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

"Profit-booking in autos, metals, and oil &amp; gas weighed on indices, while selective buying in consumer durables, on hopes of a demand revival, offered brief respite. The week ended on a cautious tone ahead of U.S. Supreme Court rulings on tariffs, with fears of additional levies under Russian sanctions overshadowing optimism around earnings recovery."

"Looking ahead, clarity on global trade dynamics and Q3 earnings will shape market direction. Volatility is likely to persist in the near term, particularly in US exposed companies and sectors such as metals and oil &amp; gas. However, strong domestic fundamentals, resilient GDP growth and robust credit trends, could underpin selective buying where earnings prospects remain favourable."

"FII flows and currency movements will act as key monitorable, while any positive outcome from India–US trade discussions or easing tariff concerns could spark a short-term rebound. Overall, markets are expected to stay range-bound with a mixed bias, looking forth a balance between external risks and domestic fundamentals," he said further.

The BSE Small-cap index declined nearly 4 percent during the week, with heavy selling seen across several stocks. Shares of Systematix Corporate Services, Balu Forge Industries, Worth Investment &amp; Trading, VTM, Kiri Industries, Sai Silks Kalamandir, Indian Metals &amp; Ferro Alloys, Transformers and Rectifiers India, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Baazar Style Retail, Elecon Engineering Company, Kitex Garments, Faze Three, and Sandur Manganese and Iron Ores tumbled between 15 and 23 percent.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13766800" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2026/01/20260110150254_Untitled.png" alt="Untitled" width="766" height="1844" />

Where is Nifty50 headed?

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty has slipped further, moving lower from the 50 EMA, indicating increasing weakness. Bouts of selling pressure dragged the index to close at a several-day low. Market sentiment appears decisively negative. In the short term, the trend might remain weak, with potential downside towards 25,550–25,500. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,850.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty continued to slide down on Friday and closed the day lower by 193 points. After opening on a weak note, the market slipped into further weakness that continued for better part of the session. Minor recovery was seen towards the end and Nifty closed near the lows.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with minor lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates a sharp down trended movement in the market. A long bear candle was formed on the weekly chart that signals sharp reversal in the market after the consolidation movement of few weeks. This is not a good sign and indicates more weakness in the coming week.

The underlying trend of Nifty continues to be weak. A slide below the support of 25700 could open more decline down to 25400 in the coming week. Immediate resistance is placed at 25900.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Market sentiment stayed subdued amid elevated geopolitical and global trade-related concerns, particularly renewed uncertainty around potential U.S. tariff actions and related Supreme Court developments. Persistent foreign institutional selling and weakness across broader risk assets further compounded the negative bias, while heavyweights also added to the downside pressure.

From a technical perspective, the decline has disrupted the short-term up move in the Nifty, with the index now retesting its medium-term support zone near the 100 DEMA around the 25,600 level. A decisive break below this could invite further pressure towards the 25,450 and 25,300 levels. On the upside, reclaiming the short-term moving average, i.e., the 20 DEMA around 26,000, may prove challenging. In the current environment, a selective approach with controlled position sizing and balanced exposure on both sides is advisable.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

90 smallcaps sink in double digits as index underperforms

Broader market indices remained under pressure during the week, with mid- and large-cap indices declining around 2.5 percent each, while the small-cap index fell nearly 4 percent, significantly underperforming the benchmark indices. The markets posted their worst weekly performance in over three months, weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions, persistent FII selling, and concerns over potential US tariffs.

BSE Sensex index slipped 2,185.77 points or 2.54 percent at 83,576.24, while Nifty50 index shed 193.55 points or 2.45 percent at 25,683.30.

Sectorally, Nifty Oil &amp;amp; Gas, Nifty Energy, and Nifty Infra indices declined 4–5 percent during the week. Nifty Metal, Realty, Media, and Auto indices also remained under pressure, each slipping more than 2 percent. In contrast, the Nifty Defence index gained 1.3 percent, while the Nifty Consumer Durables index rose 1 percent.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to remain net sellers during the week, offloading equities worth Rs 9,209.90 crore. In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided support to the market, purchasing equities worth Rs 17,594.58 crore.

&quot;Indian equities navigated the first full week of 2026 with caution, reflecting a corrective undertone. The week began on a muted note as expectations of higher government borrowing drove bond yields upward, though strong GST collections and healthy bank credit growth provided some support. Market sentiment, however, weakened amid global headwinds, including the Venezuela–US standoff, concerns over Russian oil imports, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and continued FII outflows,&quot; said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

&quot;Profit-booking in autos, metals, and oil &amp;amp; gas weighed on indices, while selective buying in consumer durables, on hopes of a demand revival, offered brief respite. The week ended on a cautious tone ahead of U.S. Supreme Court rulings on tariffs, with fears of additional levies under Russian sanctions overshadowing optimism around earnings recovery.&quot;

&quot;Looking ahead, clarity on global trade dynamics and Q3 earnings will shape market direction. Volatility is likely to persist in the near term, particularly in US exposed companies and sectors such as metals and oil &amp;amp; gas. However, strong domestic fundamentals, resilient GDP growth and robust credit trends, could underpin selective buying where earnings prospects remain favourable.&quot;

&quot;FII flows and currency movements will act as key monitorable, while any positive outcome from India–US trade discussions or easing tariff concerns could spark a short-term rebound. Overall, markets are expected to stay range-bound with a mixed bias, looking forth a balance between external risks and domestic fundamentals,&quot; he said further.

The BSE Small-cap index declined nearly 4 percent during the week, with heavy selling seen across several stocks. Shares of Systematix Corporate Services, Balu Forge Industries, Worth Investment &amp;amp; Trading, VTM, Kiri Industries, Sai Silks Kalamandir, Indian Metals &amp;amp; Ferro Alloys, Transformers and Rectifiers India, Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Wardwizard Innovations and Mobility, Baazar Style Retail, Elecon Engineering Company, Kitex Garments, Faze Three, and Sandur Manganese and Iron Ores tumbled between 15 and 23 percent.



Where is Nifty50 headed?

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty has slipped further, moving lower from the 50 EMA, indicating increasing weakness. Bouts of selling pressure dragged the index to close at a several-day low. Market sentiment appears decisively negative. In the short term, the trend might remain weak, with potential downside towards 25,550–25,500. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,850.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty continued to slide down on Friday and closed the day lower by 193 points. After opening on a weak note, the market slipped into further weakness that continued for better part of the session. Minor recovery was seen towards the end and Nifty closed near the lows.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with minor lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates a sharp down trended movement in the market. A long bear candle was formed on the weekly chart that signals sharp reversal in the market after the consolidation movement of few weeks. This is not a good sign and indicates more weakness in the coming week.

The underlying trend of Nifty continues to be weak. A slide below the support of 25700 could open more decline down to 25400 in the coming week. Immediate resistance is placed at 25900.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Market sentiment stayed subdued amid elevated geopolitical and global trade-related concerns, particularly renewed uncertainty around potential U.S. tariff actions and related Supreme Court developments. Persistent foreign institutional selling and weakness across broader risk assets further compounded the negative bias, while heavyweights also added to the downside pressure.

From a technical perspective, the decline has disrupted the short-term up move in the Nifty, with the index now retesting its medium-term support zone near the 100 DEMA around the 25,600 level. A decisive break below this could invite further pressure towards the 25,450 and 25,300 levels. On the upside, reclaiming the short-term moving average, i.e., the 20 DEMA around 26,000, may prove challenging. In the current environment, a selective approach with controlled position sizing and balanced exposure on both sides is advisable.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

10 out of 16 years NIFTY PHARMA has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	22,935.08	23,109.17	23,228.48	22,815.77	22,641.68	22,522.37	22,348.28
Fibonacci	22,927.85	22,997.09	23,109.17	22,815.77	22,703.69	22,634.45	22,522.37
Camarilla	22,787.90	22,814.79	22,841.68	22,815.77	22,734.10	22,707.21	22,680.32

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