Nifty Oil & Gas

Broader indices ended higher and continued the outperformance in the second consecutive week amid volatility led by persistent FII selling, mixed earnings so far and inline Fed rate cut with hawkish tone.

BSE Mid and Smallcap indices rose 1 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.

BSE Sensex index shed 273.17 points or 0.32 percent to end at 83,938.71 and Nifty50 declined 155.75 points or 0.60 percent to close at 25,722.10.

The Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying on 28th week, as they bought equities worth Rs 18,804.26 crore, while the Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2102 crore.

However, on month-on-month basis, the selling from FII shrink as they sold equities of Rs 2,346.89 crore, while DII bought equities worth Rs 52,794.02 crore.

On the sectoral front, Nifty PSU Bank index rose 4.7%, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas index gained 3%, Nifty Metal index rose 2.5%, Nifty Energy index rose 1.8%. On the other hand, Nifty Healthcare, Auto, Private Bank indices down 1% each.

"The Indian markets wrapped up the last week of October with profit booking as investors took some chips off the table after the sustained rally. While PSU banks surged on reports of a potential hike in foreign investment limits, metal counters gleamed on renewed optimism after China’s pledge to rein in steel overcapacity and signs of progress in US-China trade talks. In contrast, capital market stocks lost momentum as SEBI’s proposed overhaul of TER structures weighed on sentiment," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investment.

"The precious metals faced extreme volatility, extending a sharp fall from their recent record highs, owing to strengthening US dollar and aggressive profit-booking after the strong rally. Although the Fed delivered the expected rate cut, diminishing prospects of another reduction in December pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield higher."

"Looking ahead, the market will closely monitor the nations’ trade talks with the US and the ongoing corporate earnings season, which so far has delivered mixed results.
Moreover, any dips are expected to attract buying interest across core sectors, given the expectation of a better H2, being supported by monetary and fiscal support," he added.

The BSE Small-cap index rose 0.7 percent with Lancer Containers Lines, Chennai Petroleum Corporation, Hatsun Agro Products, Spectrum Electrical Industries, Blue Cloud, Softech Solutions, Mufin Green Finance, Five-Star Business Finance, TD Power Systems rising between 20-54 percent, while Khaitan Chemicals and Fertilizers, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Cohance Lifesciences, Sadhana Nitrochem, JITF Infralogistics, Fino Payments Bank, Quadrant Future Tek, Dynamic Cables, Nalwa Sons Investment, GFL shed between 10-19 percent.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13646522" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/11/20251101055758_Untitled.png" alt="Untitled" width="840" height="1064" />

Where is Nifty50 headed?

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Going ahead, markets are likely to remain range-bound with a positive bias as investors monitor global developments, foreign fund flows, and next week’s focus will also be on monthly auto sales figures, which will offer cues on festive-season demand trends, alongside quarterly results from SBI, Bharti Airtel, Titan, and Tata Chemicals. Resilient domestic fundamentals continue to offer support, even as external uncertainties may cap near-term upside.

Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities

The short-term market outlook remains positive. We believe that the 25,700–25,650/83900-83700 zone will act as a crucial support level for traders, while 26,000/85000 and 26,100/85300 could serve as key resistance areas for the bulls. A successful breakout above 26,100/85300 could push the market toward 26,250–26,350/85800-86100. Conversely, if the market falls below 25,650/83700, sentiment could turn negative, potentially slipping to 25,500–25,450/83300-83100.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates

On the weekly scale, the index has formed a shooting star candle, indicating profit booking at higher levels. However, the Nifty index is still holding above the support of 25,670. If the index sustains below 25,670, weakness could extend towards 25,450–25,400 levels, where the next major demand zone is placed. On the higher side, 26,100 is acting as a stiff resistance. As long as Nifty remains below this level, any bounce should be used for booking profits.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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More than 50 smallcaps rise up to 54% as broader indices outperform

Broader indices ended higher and continued the outperformance in the second consecutive week amid volatility led by persistent FII selling, mixed earnings so far and inline Fed rate cut with hawkish tone.

BSE Mid and Smallcap indices rose 1 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.

BSE Sensex index shed 273.17 points or 0.32 percent to end at 83,938.71 and Nifty50 declined 155.75 points or 0.60 percent to close at 25,722.10.

The Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying on 28th week, as they bought equities worth Rs 18,804.26 crore, while the Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2102 crore.

However, on month-on-month basis, the selling from FII shrink as they sold equities of Rs 2,346.89 crore, while DII bought equities worth Rs 52,794.02 crore.

On the sectoral front, Nifty PSU Bank index rose 4.7%, Nifty Oil &amp;amp; Gas index gained 3%, Nifty Metal index rose 2.5%, Nifty Energy index rose 1.8%. On the other hand, Nifty Healthcare, Auto, Private Bank indices down 1% each.

&quot;The Indian markets wrapped up the last week of October with profit booking as investors took some chips off the table after the sustained rally. While PSU banks surged on reports of a potential hike in foreign investment limits, metal counters gleamed on renewed optimism after China’s pledge to rein in steel overcapacity and signs of progress in US-China trade talks. In contrast, capital market stocks lost momentum as SEBI’s proposed overhaul of TER structures weighed on sentiment,&quot; said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investment.

&quot;The precious metals faced extreme volatility, extending a sharp fall from their recent record highs, owing to strengthening US dollar and aggressive profit-booking after the strong rally. Although the Fed delivered the expected rate cut, diminishing prospects of another reduction in December pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield higher.&quot;

&quot;Looking ahead, the market will closely monitor the nations’ trade talks with the US and the ongoing corporate earnings season, which so far has delivered mixed results.
Moreover, any dips are expected to attract buying interest across core sectors, given the expectation of a better H2, being supported by monetary and fiscal support,&quot; he added.

The BSE Small-cap index rose 0.7 percent with Lancer Containers Lines, Chennai Petroleum Corporation, Hatsun Agro Products, Spectrum Electrical Industries, Blue Cloud, Softech Solutions, Mufin Green Finance, Five-Star Business Finance, TD Power Systems rising between 20-54 percent, while Khaitan Chemicals and Fertilizers, LE Travenues Technology (IXIGO), Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Cohance Lifesciences, Sadhana Nitrochem, JITF Infralogistics, Fino Payments Bank, Quadrant Future Tek, Dynamic Cables, Nalwa Sons Investment, GFL shed between 10-19 percent.



Where is Nifty50 headed?

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Going ahead, markets are likely to remain range-bound with a positive bias as investors monitor global developments, foreign fund flows, and next week’s focus will also be on monthly auto sales figures, which will offer cues on festive-season demand trends, alongside quarterly results from SBI, Bharti Airtel, Titan, and Tata Chemicals. Resilient domestic fundamentals continue to offer support, even as external uncertainties may cap near-term upside.

Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities

The short-term market outlook remains positive. We believe that the 25,700–25,650/83900-83700 zone will act as a crucial support level for traders, while 26,000/85000 and 26,100/85300 could serve as key resistance areas for the bulls. A successful breakout above 26,100/85300 could push the market toward 26,250–26,350/85800-86100. Conversely, if the market falls below 25,650/83700, sentiment could turn negative, potentially slipping to 25,500–25,450/83300-83100.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates

On the weekly scale, the index has formed a shooting star candle, indicating profit booking at higher levels. However, the Nifty index is still holding above the support of 25,670. If the index sustains below 25,670, weakness could extend towards 25,450–25,400 levels, where the next major demand zone is placed. On the higher side, 26,100 is acting as a stiff resistance. As long as Nifty remains below this level, any bounce should be used for booking profits.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities remains bullish on three PSUs - BHEL, Bharat Electronics and Canara Bank, but signals caution on Sagility after its 23 percent rally in the month of October.

According to him, <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/infrastructure-general/bharatheavyelectricals/BHE">BHEL</a>’s breakout above its trendline, supported by rising volumes and back-to-back closes above the upper Bollinger Band, reflects strong bullish momentum, while breaking out of a Rs 425–390 range with heavy volumes, confirming a strong uptrend in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aerospacedefence/bharatelectronics/BE03">Bharat Electronics</a>.

In case of <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/canarabank/CB06">Canara Bank</a>, technical indicators remain favourable, with no signs of reversal yet. As long as the stock holds above key short-term supports, the trend remains positive, and further upside can’t be ruled out in the near term, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Are you turning cautious on the market?

Nifty spent the week consolidating after an exceptional October rally of over 1,500 points from 24,588. The index neared its record high but lost steam amid global uncertainty and profit booking. A Shooting Star candle on the weekly chart signaled exhaustion after the steep rise. The index moved in a narrow 26,104–25,711 band for 11 sessions, with RSI cooling to 57.84, reflecting waning momentum.

Despite this, the broader trend remains intact as ADX stays strong. Support lies at 25,520–25,500; a break below may drag it to 25,300. Resistance persists at 26,100–26,150, above which bullish momentum could resume.

Do you think the Bank Nifty has completed its rally for the time being? Would you rule out the possibility of a major rally going forward?

Bank Nifty consolidated after hitting a lifetime high of 58,578 last week, indicating fatigue at elevated levels. Profit booking near 58,600 capped gains, forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow. The weekly chart pattern suggests waning bullish strength, though overall sentiment remains positive.

RSI has eased from 76.64 to 62.29, while MACD and ADX confirm that the broader trend is intact. Support lies at 57,600–57,500, aligning with the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is placed at 58,400–58,500, and a sustained close above this zone could revive momentum toward 59,000–59,500. The structure remains bullish despite short-term consolidation.

Which two stocks have caught your attention for the upcoming week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/constructioncontracting-real-estate/ajmerarealtyinfraindia/ARI03">Ajmera Realty and Infra India</a>

The stock has broken out of a downward-sloping trendline with strong volumes, signaling bullish intent. Its rebound above the 20-DEMA shows underlying strength, while RSI above 60 and widening DI lines confirm improving momentum. A MACD crossover adds to the positive setup. Accumulate in the Rs 1,072–1,067 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 1,035 for an upside target of Rs 1,145.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aerospacedefence/bharatelectronics/BE03">Bharat Electronics</a>

BEL has broken out of a Rs 425–390 range with heavy volumes, confirming a strong uptrend. The RSI is rising, price trades above key averages, and a close above the Bollinger Band shows renewed buying interest. Accumulate in the Rs 426–421 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 410 for a near-term target of Rs 455.

From a technical perspective, would you advise adding positions in BHEL and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/multiline-insurancebrokers/pbfintech/PF14">PB Fintech</a>, both of which have seen strong rallies recently?

Both BHEL and PB Fintech remain strong technically after clear breakouts. BHEL’s breakout above its trendline, supported by rising volumes and back-to-back closes above the upper Bollinger Band, reflects strong bullish momentum. MACD crossover and rising histogram bars support this strength.

Similarly, PB Fintech has broken key resistance levels and is trading above crucial moving averages. Its RSI trend and MACD above zero confirm continued upward bias. Overall, both counters remain in robust uptrends, and the technical setup suggests potential for further gains. Traders may consider buying on dips with proper risk management, as the structure continues to favor the bulls.

Do the charts indicate further upside potential in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/canarabank/CB06">Canara Bank</a>, which has maintained its uptrend for another month?

Canara Bank continues its strong uptrend, helping lift the PSU Bank Index to a new high of 8,272. After a channel breakout in mid-September, the stock has been forming higher highs, with the 20-day EMA providing steady support. A recent 6 percent surge backed by volumes highlights sustained buying interest.

The MACD crossover and a close above the upper Bollinger Band confirm ongoing bullish momentum. Technical indicators remain favourable, with no signs of reversal yet. As long as the stock holds above key short-term supports, the trend remains positive, and further upside can’t be ruled out in the near term.

Does <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/miscellaneous/sagility/SIL27">Sagility India</a> appear overbought at the current levels?

Sagility has surged 23 percent since early October, trading well above its key moving averages. However, indicators suggest overbought conditions. ADX at 31.59 signals strong trend strength, while RSI hit 80.82 before cooling to 69.64, marking extreme levels last seen in January 2025.

The stock breached its previous high of Rs 56.40 but failed to sustain, forming a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart — a potential reversal signal. These factors indicate that the stock may face near-term profit booking or a consolidation phase after its sharp rally, even though the broader trend remains structurally strong. Caution is advised at current levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist Talks: Sudeep Shah remains bullish on these 3 PSUs, flags caution on Sagility

Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities remains bullish on three PSUs - BHEL, Bharat Electronics and Canara Bank, but signals caution on Sagility after its 23 percent rally in the month of October.

According to him, BHEL’s breakout above its trendline, supported by rising volumes and back-to-back closes above the upper Bollinger Band, reflects strong bullish momentum, while breaking out of a Rs 425–390 range with heavy volumes, confirming a strong uptrend in Bharat Electronics.

In case of Canara Bank, technical indicators remain favourable, with no signs of reversal yet. As long as the stock holds above key short-term supports, the trend remains positive, and further upside can’t be ruled out in the near term, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Are you turning cautious on the market?

Nifty spent the week consolidating after an exceptional October rally of over 1,500 points from 24,588. The index neared its record high but lost steam amid global uncertainty and profit booking. A Shooting Star candle on the weekly chart signaled exhaustion after the steep rise. The index moved in a narrow 26,104–25,711 band for 11 sessions, with RSI cooling to 57.84, reflecting waning momentum.

Despite this, the broader trend remains intact as ADX stays strong. Support lies at 25,520–25,500; a break below may drag it to 25,300. Resistance persists at 26,100–26,150, above which bullish momentum could resume.

Do you think the Bank Nifty has completed its rally for the time being? Would you rule out the possibility of a major rally going forward?

Bank Nifty consolidated after hitting a lifetime high of 58,578 last week, indicating fatigue at elevated levels. Profit booking near 58,600 capped gains, forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow. The weekly chart pattern suggests waning bullish strength, though overall sentiment remains positive.

RSI has eased from 76.64 to 62.29, while MACD and ADX confirm that the broader trend is intact. Support lies at 57,600–57,500, aligning with the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is placed at 58,400–58,500, and a sustained close above this zone could revive momentum toward 59,000–59,500. The structure remains bullish despite short-term consolidation.

Which two stocks have caught your attention for the upcoming week?

Ajmera Realty and Infra India

The stock has broken out of a downward-sloping trendline with strong volumes, signaling bullish intent. Its rebound above the 20-DEMA shows underlying strength, while RSI above 60 and widening DI lines confirm improving momentum. A MACD crossover adds to the positive setup. Accumulate in the Rs 1,072–1,067 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 1,035 for an upside target of Rs 1,145.

Bharat Electronics

BEL has broken out of a Rs 425–390 range with heavy volumes, confirming a strong uptrend. The RSI is rising, price trades above key averages, and a close above the Bollinger Band shows renewed buying interest. Accumulate in the Rs 426–421 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 410 for a near-term target of Rs 455.

From a technical perspective, would you advise adding positions in BHEL and PB Fintech, both of which have seen strong rallies recently?

Both BHEL and PB Fintech remain strong technically after clear breakouts. BHEL’s breakout above its trendline, supported by rising volumes and back-to-back closes above the upper Bollinger Band, reflects strong bullish momentum. MACD crossover and rising histogram bars support this strength.

Similarly, PB Fintech has broken key resistance levels and is trading above crucial moving averages. Its RSI trend and MACD above zero confirm continued upward bias. Overall, both counters remain in robust uptrends, and the technical setup suggests potential for further gains. Traders may consider buying on dips with proper risk management, as the structure continues to favor the bulls.

Do the charts indicate further upside potential in Canara Bank, which has maintained its uptrend for another month?

Canara Bank continues its strong uptrend, helping lift the PSU Bank Index to a new high of 8,272. After a channel breakout in mid-September, the stock has been forming higher highs, with the 20-day EMA providing steady support. A recent 6 percent surge backed by volumes highlights sustained buying interest.

The MACD crossover and a close above the upper Bollinger Band confirm ongoing bullish momentum. Technical indicators remain favourable, with no signs of reversal yet. As long as the stock holds above key short-term supports, the trend remains positive, and further upside can’t be ruled out in the near term.

Does Sagility India appear overbought at the current levels?

Sagility has surged 23 percent since early October, trading well above its key moving averages. However, indicators suggest overbought conditions. ADX at 31.59 signals strong trend strength, while RSI hit 80.82 before cooling to 69.64, marking extreme levels last seen in January 2025.

The stock breached its previous high of Rs 56.40 but failed to sustain, forming a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart — a potential reversal signal. These factors indicate that the stock may face near-term profit booking or a consolidation phase after its sharp rally, even though the broader trend remains structurally strong. Caution is advised at current levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

According to Dhananjay Sinha, CEO and Co-Head of Institutional Equities at Systematix Corporate Services, the key risk to the market lies in several optimistic assumptions — including the expectation of a significant revival in consumption demand and the belief that the impact of US tariff measures on India’s growth will remain limited.

He believes there is a high likelihood that festive demand may fall short of expectations despite the much-hyped “Bachat Utsav” theme surrounding the GST rationalisation.

Sinha also pointed to uncertainties regarding the implications of the global trade slowdown and the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations with the US, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

How do you interpret the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary?

Overall, the Fed’s guidance has carried a flavour of hawkishness, thereby significantly reducing the probability of a December 2025 rate cut, emphasising a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach in an environment of two-sided risks and diminished clarity. Wednesday’s rate cut action to 3.75-4.0 percent appears as a pre-emptive move described as "risk management".

Do you see the possibility of one more rate cut in the December meeting, followed by a prolonged pause in the rate-cut cycle?

Given the strongly differing view among the committee members regarding prospects of another rate cut in December 2025, with many disapproving of further easing due to inflation and employment risks foreboding prospects of stagflation. Currently, the baseline assumption is that the tariff hikes will have a one-time price-level effect.

But there is a possibility that the inflationary impulse from trade disruptions and supply shortages can be prolonged, leading to considerable pass-through or secondary effects. Hence, the future decision will be a function of how the trade scenario pans out and how the Fed balances with the political pressure for deeper rate cuts.

Do you expect the announcement of the first phase of the India–US trade deal in November?

It is difficult to predict the outcome of trade negotiations between India and the US. The scenario over the past eight months has vacillated considerably between the initial assumption of India being spared from harsh measures to the current tariffs being the second highest.

Earlier, we expected that the US tariff on India would settle around 20-25 percent, but instead it has escalated to 50 percent as the US pressures India to abandon oil imports from Russia. In addition, hike in charges from acquiring H1B visa and prospect of implementing the HIRE act that imposes taxes on outsourcing make is abundantly clear that India’s services are also targeted.

Further, there are vexed issues relating to market access to India’s farm products. Overall, it will be premature to hazard a guess at this juncture.

What, in your view, are the key triggers and challenges for the equity markets during the remainder of the current financial year?

Earnings trajectory has been muted over the past 4-6 quarters, characterised by a marked deceleration in sales growth of companies. Expectations are afloat regarding the possibility of a significant revival in consumption demand, driven by the rationalisation of GST rates, easing of income tax, the impact of the RBI’s monetary easing, and the prospects of a US–India trade deal. Additionally, there is a perception among market participants and policymakers that US tariffication will have a limited impact on India’s growth.

The risk is that many of these assumptions are optimistic. There is a high likelihood that festive demand may disappoint despite the much hyped “Bachat Utsav” theme around the GST rationalisation. Also, there is uncertainty around the implications of the global trade slowdown and the outcome of the trade negotiations with the US.

Have you observed any surprising trends or indications from the September-quarter earnings season?

The ongoing result season is on expected lines, which is pivoted on a weak demand scenario, margin pressure and companies working towards cost optimisation to keep profitability afloat. Post results most companies have seen their earnings outlook getting cut.

Banks, autos, and consumer goods have seen a moderation in earnings. NBFCs, cement and power-related companies have done relatively better.

Which sectors, in your opinion, offer the best opportunity to play the AI theme?

Most manufacturing and services sector large companies are gaining from automation and AI implementation. Sectors that have leveraged on this theme are Data centres, ITES, non-conventional energy, BESS, and e-commerce/Q-Commerce.

Do you expect significant implications from the sanctions on Russian oil companies for India and related sectors?

The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC—producing ~3.6 million and 1.6 million bpd, respectively, or 45–50 percent of Russia’s output and 4.8 percent of global supply, to curb funding for the Ukraine war, with the UK following suit last week and the EU approving its 19th package banning Russian LNG imports while adding two Chinese refiners (600,000 bpd combined capacity) and PetroChina’s China oil Hong Kong to the list.

Amid prior oversupply signals, record tanker volumes at sea and the IEA forecasting a 4 million bpd global surplus in 2025 with weakening forward curves, these measures are expected to normalise the demand-supply balance. Consequently, crude prices rose 5 percent, diesel cracks climbed to $26 a barrel from $22 a barrel (petrol cracks flat at $13 a barrel), compressing OMC marketing margins by Rs 4.3 per litre on diesel and Rs 1.7 per litre on petrol to Rs 3.5 per litre and Rs 10.4 per litre, respectively, though GRMs gained ~$2 per barrel; every Re 1 per litre margin erosion typically cuts OMC EBITDA by 10–14 percent and PAT by 15–20 percent.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: ‘Bachat Utsav’ may fizzle out? Dhananjay Sinha warns of over-optimism in market assumptions

According to Dhananjay Sinha, CEO and Co-Head of Institutional Equities at Systematix Corporate Services, the key risk to the market lies in several optimistic assumptions — including the expectation of a significant revival in consumption demand and the belief that the impact of US tariff measures on India’s growth will remain limited.

He believes there is a high likelihood that festive demand may fall short of expectations despite the much-hyped “Bachat Utsav” theme surrounding the GST rationalisation.

Sinha also pointed to uncertainties regarding the implications of the global trade slowdown and the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations with the US, in an interview with Moneycontrol.

How do you interpret the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary?

Overall, the Fed’s guidance has carried a flavour of hawkishness, thereby significantly reducing the probability of a December 2025 rate cut, emphasising a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach in an environment of two-sided risks and diminished clarity. Wednesday’s rate cut action to 3.75-4.0 percent appears as a pre-emptive move described as &quot;risk management&quot;.

Do you see the possibility of one more rate cut in the December meeting, followed by a prolonged pause in the rate-cut cycle?

Given the strongly differing view among the committee members regarding prospects of another rate cut in December 2025, with many disapproving of further easing due to inflation and employment risks foreboding prospects of stagflation. Currently, the baseline assumption is that the tariff hikes will have a one-time price-level effect.

But there is a possibility that the inflationary impulse from trade disruptions and supply shortages can be prolonged, leading to considerable pass-through or secondary effects. Hence, the future decision will be a function of how the trade scenario pans out and how the Fed balances with the political pressure for deeper rate cuts.

Do you expect the announcement of the first phase of the India–US trade deal in November?

It is difficult to predict the outcome of trade negotiations between India and the US. The scenario over the past eight months has vacillated considerably between the initial assumption of India being spared from harsh measures to the current tariffs being the second highest.

Earlier, we expected that the US tariff on India would settle around 20-25 percent, but instead it has escalated to 50 percent as the US pressures India to abandon oil imports from Russia. In addition, hike in charges from acquiring H1B visa and prospect of implementing the HIRE act that imposes taxes on outsourcing make is abundantly clear that India’s services are also targeted.

Further, there are vexed issues relating to market access to India’s farm products. Overall, it will be premature to hazard a guess at this juncture.

What, in your view, are the key triggers and challenges for the equity markets during the remainder of the current financial year?

Earnings trajectory has been muted over the past 4-6 quarters, characterised by a marked deceleration in sales growth of companies. Expectations are afloat regarding the possibility of a significant revival in consumption demand, driven by the rationalisation of GST rates, easing of income tax, the impact of the RBI’s monetary easing, and the prospects of a US–India trade deal. Additionally, there is a perception among market participants and policymakers that US tariffication will have a limited impact on India’s growth.

The risk is that many of these assumptions are optimistic. There is a high likelihood that festive demand may disappoint despite the much hyped “Bachat Utsav” theme around the GST rationalisation. Also, there is uncertainty around the implications of the global trade slowdown and the outcome of the trade negotiations with the US.

Have you observed any surprising trends or indications from the September-quarter earnings season?

The ongoing result season is on expected lines, which is pivoted on a weak demand scenario, margin pressure and companies working towards cost optimisation to keep profitability afloat. Post results most companies have seen their earnings outlook getting cut.

Banks, autos, and consumer goods have seen a moderation in earnings. NBFCs, cement and power-related companies have done relatively better.

Which sectors, in your opinion, offer the best opportunity to play the AI theme?

Most manufacturing and services sector large companies are gaining from automation and AI implementation. Sectors that have leveraged on this theme are Data centres, ITES, non-conventional energy, BESS, and e-commerce/Q-Commerce.

Do you expect significant implications from the sanctions on Russian oil companies for India and related sectors?

The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC—producing ~3.6 million and 1.6 million bpd, respectively, or 45–50 percent of Russia’s output and 4.8 percent of global supply, to curb funding for the Ukraine war, with the UK following suit last week and the EU approving its 19th package banning Russian LNG imports while adding two Chinese refiners (600,000 bpd combined capacity) and PetroChina’s China oil Hong Kong to the list.

Amid prior oversupply signals, record tanker volumes at sea and the IEA forecasting a 4 million bpd global surplus in 2025 with weakening forward curves, these measures are expected to normalise the demand-supply balance. Consequently, crude prices rose 5 percent, diesel cracks climbed to $26 a barrel from $22 a barrel (petrol cracks flat at $13 a barrel), compressing OMC marketing margins by Rs 4.3 per litre on diesel and Rs 1.7 per litre on petrol to Rs 3.5 per litre and Rs 10.4 per litre, respectively, though GRMs gained ~$2 per barrel; every Re 1 per litre margin erosion typically cuts OMC EBITDA by 10–14 percent and PAT by 15–20 percent.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The Nifty 50 witnessed follow-through selling on October 31 as bears held fort, extending the downward journey for the second consecutive session, with a continuation of the bearish bias in momentum indicators. During this fall, the index broke below the 10-day EMA and reached the lower end of the 25,700–26,100 range, which it had been trading within for more than a week.

If the index decisively breaks below 25,700 or 25,670 (June swing high), bears could challenge 25,600 (20-day EMA), followed by 25,500 — a crucial support level that coincides with the midline of the Bollinger Bands. On the higher side, 25,900–26,000 is expected to act as an immediate hurdle, according to experts.

After opening lower, the Nifty 50 rebounded and climbed up to 25,954 but could not sustain those gains for long. By the end of the initial hour of trading, the index turned lower and extended its downtrend as the day progressed. It closed at 25,722, down 156 points (0.6 percent), forming a bearish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart — indicating weakness and selling pressure at higher levels.

On a weekly basis, the index snapped its four-week winning streak, declining 0.28 percent and forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the weekly timeframe, accompanied by above-average volumes — signaling significant pressure at higher zones.

The momentum indicators have also been losing strength. The RSI stands at 57.84, while the Stochastic RSI continues to sustain a bearish crossover. The MACD has also inched downward with a declining histogram (though still slightly above the zero line), indicating fading momentum.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the short-term trend of the Nifty is weak, though the overall medium-term trend of the market remains positive.

“Any slide below the 25,700 level is expected to find strong support around the 25,500 level, and there is a higher possibility of a sharp upside bounce from the lows by next week,” he said.

Weekly options data also indicates that the Nifty is expected to remain in the 25,500–26,100 range in the short term.

The maximum Call open interest remains at the 26,000 strike, followed by 25,900 and 26,100, with the highest Call writing seen at the 25,800, 25,900, and 26,000 strikes. On the Put side, the 25,700 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by 25,500 and 25,800, with the highest Put writing at the 25,700, 25,800, and 25,750 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty was also weak for another session, falling 255 points (0.44 percent) to 57,776 on Friday, though it managed a 0.13 percent gain for the week. The banking index formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily timeframe, accompanied by above-average volumes, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. On the weekly chart, it formed a small bearish candle with a very long upper shadow, resembling a Gravestone Doji-like pattern — a bearish reversal formation that requires confirmation in the following week.

Momentum indicators also signaled caution. The RSI (at 62.29) and Stochastic RSI maintained a bearish crossover, while the MACD is on the verge of a negative crossover. The histogram has been gradually declining and remains just above the zero line, indicating fading momentum.

“On the downside, immediate support for Bank Nifty is seen near 57,630. A firm break below this level could extend weakness towards 57,000, while the major hurdle for Bank Nifty is positioned around 58,580. As long as the index remains below 58,580, traders are advised to book profits on bounces,” said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP, Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear gauge, continued its upward move, rising 0.7 percent to 12.15 and moving above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs — indicating increasing caution for the bulls.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Technical View: Nifty snaps 4-week gains, bears can challenge 25,500 if Nifty breaks 25,670 level; Bank Nifty near key support

The Nifty 50 witnessed follow-through selling on October 31 as bears held fort, extending the downward journey for the second consecutive session, with a continuation of the bearish bias in momentum indicators. During this fall, the index broke below the 10-day EMA and reached the lower end of the 25,700–26,100 range, which it had been trading within for more than a week.

If the index decisively breaks below 25,700 or 25,670 (June swing high), bears could challenge 25,600 (20-day EMA), followed by 25,500 — a crucial support level that coincides with the midline of the Bollinger Bands. On the higher side, 25,900–26,000 is expected to act as an immediate hurdle, according to experts.

After opening lower, the Nifty 50 rebounded and climbed up to 25,954 but could not sustain those gains for long. By the end of the initial hour of trading, the index turned lower and extended its downtrend as the day progressed. It closed at 25,722, down 156 points (0.6 percent), forming a bearish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart — indicating weakness and selling pressure at higher levels.

On a weekly basis, the index snapped its four-week winning streak, declining 0.28 percent and forming a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the weekly timeframe, accompanied by above-average volumes — signaling significant pressure at higher zones.

The momentum indicators have also been losing strength. The RSI stands at 57.84, while the Stochastic RSI continues to sustain a bearish crossover. The MACD has also inched downward with a declining histogram (though still slightly above the zero line), indicating fading momentum.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the short-term trend of the Nifty is weak, though the overall medium-term trend of the market remains positive.

“Any slide below the 25,700 level is expected to find strong support around the 25,500 level, and there is a higher possibility of a sharp upside bounce from the lows by next week,” he said.

Weekly options data also indicates that the Nifty is expected to remain in the 25,500–26,100 range in the short term.

The maximum Call open interest remains at the 26,000 strike, followed by 25,900 and 26,100, with the highest Call writing seen at the 25,800, 25,900, and 26,000 strikes. On the Put side, the 25,700 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by 25,500 and 25,800, with the highest Put writing at the 25,700, 25,800, and 25,750 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty was also weak for another session, falling 255 points (0.44 percent) to 57,776 on Friday, though it managed a 0.13 percent gain for the week. The banking index formed a bearish candle with a long upper shadow on the daily timeframe, accompanied by above-average volumes, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. On the weekly chart, it formed a small bearish candle with a very long upper shadow, resembling a Gravestone Doji-like pattern — a bearish reversal formation that requires confirmation in the following week.

Momentum indicators also signaled caution. The RSI (at 62.29) and Stochastic RSI maintained a bearish crossover, while the MACD is on the verge of a negative crossover. The histogram has been gradually declining and remains just above the zero line, indicating fading momentum.

“On the downside, immediate support for Bank Nifty is seen near 57,630. A firm break below this level could extend weakness towards 57,000, while the major hurdle for Bank Nifty is positioned around 58,580. As long as the index remains below 58,580, traders are advised to book profits on bounces,” said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP, Technical and Derivative Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear gauge, continued its upward move, rising 0.7 percent to 12.15 and moving above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs — indicating increasing caution for the bulls.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE will remain closed on Wednesday, November 5, on account of Guru Nanak Dev Ji Jayanti, also known as Gurpurab or Prakash Parv.

As per the holiday calendar issued by the exchanges at the beginning of the year, this will be the only trading holiday in November. With the mid-week closure, markets will witness a truncated four-day trading week.

On the day, there will be no transactions in equity, derivatives, securities lending and borrowing, currency derivatives, and electronic gold receipts segments.

The next market holiday falls on December 25 for Christmas. These are the only two scheduled trading holidays remaining for the current calendar year.

Apart from these, the markets remain closed on Saturdays and Sundays. Regular trading takes place from Monday to Friday between 9:15 am and 3:30 pm, preceded by a pre-opening session from 9 am to 9:15 am.

Stock Market Holidays 2025
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Holiday</td>
<td>Day</td>
<td>Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Guru Nanak Dev Ji Jayanti</td>
<td>Wednesday</td>
<td>November 5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Christmas</td>
<td> Thursday</td>
<td>December 25</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
MCX Holiday November 2025

According to the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), trading will remain shut in the morning session between 9 am and 5 pm on November 5. Operations will resume in the evening session from 5 pm to 11:30/11:55 pm.

Banks in several cities will also remain closed on November 5 for Guru Nanak Dev Ji Jayanti, as per the Reserve Bank of India’s holiday schedule.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Stock Market Holiday in November: NSE, BSE to remain shut next week for a day

Trading on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE will remain closed on Wednesday, November 5, on account of Guru Nanak Dev Ji Jayanti, also known as Gurpurab or Prakash Parv.

As per the holiday calendar issued by the exchanges at the beginning of the year, this will be the only trading holiday in November. With the mid-week closure, markets will witness a truncated four-day trading week.

On the day, there will be no transactions in equity, derivatives, securities lending and borrowing, currency derivatives, and electronic gold receipts segments.

The next market holiday falls on December 25 for Christmas. These are the only two scheduled trading holidays remaining for the current calendar year.

Apart from these, the markets remain closed on Saturdays and Sundays. Regular trading takes place from Monday to Friday between 9:15 am and 3:30 pm, preceded by a pre-opening session from 9 am to 9:15 am.

Stock Market Holidays 2025



Holiday
Day
Date


Guru Nanak Dev Ji Jayanti
Wednesday
November 5


Christmas
 Thursday
December 25



MCX Holiday November 2025

According to the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), trading will remain shut in the morning session between 9 am and 5 pm on November 5. Operations will resume in the evening session from 5 pm to 11:30/11:55 pm.

Banks in several cities will also remain closed on November 5 for Guru Nanak Dev Ji Jayanti, as per the Reserve Bank of India’s holiday schedule.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

2 out of 4 years Nifty OilGas has given positive returns in November.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	12,050.92	12,111.58	12,158.77	12,003.73	11,943.07	11,895.88	11,835.22
Fibonacci	12,044.93	12,070.38	12,111.58	12,003.73	11,962.53	11,937.08	11,895.88
Camarilla	12,000.14	12,010.02	12,019.91	12,003.73	11,980.36	11,970.48	11,960.59

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - Nifty Oil & Gas

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