NIFTY MNC

Nifty 50 faces selling pressure after US-Israel strikes on Iran, Crude oil surge and Middle East tensions threaten Indian equities, Key Nifty support at 25,000; further drop may target 24,600

* Nifty 50 faces selling pressure after US-Israel strikes on Iran
* Crude oil surge and Middle East tensions threaten Indian equities
* Key Nifty support at 25,000; further drop may target 24,600

Nifty 50 faces intensified selling amid US-Israel strikes on Iran and Iran’s missile retaliation, raising global energy market risks. With crude oil surging and technical weakness, analysts warn of further declines if Nifty breaks below the 25,000 level.

shorts/business/nifty-s-25-000-test-is-here-us-israel-strikes-on-iran-oil-spike-fears-put-dalal-street-on-edge

* Nifty 50 faces selling pressure after US-Israel strikes on Iran
* Crude oil surge and Middle East tensions threaten Indian equities
* Key Nifty support at 25,000; further drop may target 24,600

The Nifty 50 index is likely under intensified selling pressure with US-Israel strikes on Iran taking place over the weekend, which claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s subsequent missile retaliation against Israeli and US targets in the Gulf have dramatically raised the stakes for global energy markets.

Indian equities entered the weekend on a fragile note after Nifty shed 1.25% on February 27 to settle at 25,178.65, extending a pattern of lower highs and lower lows that has been visible since mid-February. The decline came against a backdrop of persistent selling in IT and rate-sensitive sectors, inconsistent foreign institutional investor flows, and mounting worries over Middle East tensions even before the latest military actions.

With crude oil already trading at multi-month highs and the Strait of Hormuz under threat, the benchmark index (closing at 25,178.65 on Friday amid an ongoing corrective phase) now confronts a potent mix of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation fears, and risk aversion that could push it toward the critical 25,000 psychological level and beyond.

Market analysts are now assessing how severely the oil shock will feed through to Indian equities.

The corrective tone had already taken hold, as noted by Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking, with Nifty surrendering the 25,400 support and drifting toward the 25,100 gap area as per Friday.

“It will be important to see how the relatively stronger sectors, especially banking, behave in the coming sessions, as that could determine whether the market witnesses a rebound or extends the decline towards the 24,800 zone,” he said.

During February, we witnessed wild, two-sided volatility driven by high-impact events, such as the Budget and the India-US trade deal announcement on February 3, added Vipin Kumar, AVP Equity Research and PMS, Global Capital Market.

"The broader chart structure remains negative; this underlying weakness makes it difficult for the Nifty index to sustain higher levels. On Monday, we expect a knee-jerk reaction across global equity markets as the Middle East enters a state of war. A sustained break below the 25,000 spot level could drag the index toward 24,600, which serves as crucial technical support," he explained.

Nilesh Jain, VP – Head of Technical and Derivative Research, Centrum Finverse, added, “The Nifty slipped below its crucial 200-DMA placed at 25,350, which is now expected to act as an immediate resistance zone. The index continues to exhibit a lower top and lower bottom formation on the daily chart, reflecting a weakening trend. The key psychological support is now seen at the 25,000 mark, and the overall structure points toward continued weakness, with pullbacks likely to face selling pressure.”

Brent crude, which closed Friday near $72 to 73 per barrel after a sharp intraday rally, is expected to open significantly higher when global markets resume trading Sunday night, with analysts warning of an immediate war premium that could drive prices toward $80 or even $83 to $95 if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/half-of-india-s-oil-imports-at-risk-as-us-israel-strike-on-iran-raises-hormuz-supply-fears-13847016.html">For India, which imports roughly 50% of its crude through this vital chokepoint</a>, the implications are immediate: higher import bills, current account deficit widening, rupee depreciation risk, and renewed inflationary pressure.

Technical charts paint a bearish picture that the fresh geopolitical shock is likely to reinforce.

The index has decisively broken below its 200-day moving average (around 25,350), which now serves as near-term resistance. Momentum indicators, including RSI and MACD, remain in sell mode, while Friday’s session produced a large bearish candle on above-average volume.

Key support is clustered in the 25,100 to 25,000 zone — home to significant put open interest and a psychological floor. A decisive close below this band would open the path toward 24,800 or even the Budget-day low near 24,571, according to multiple technical analysts. On any bounce, resistance is expected at 25,350–25,500 initially, followed by the tougher 25,600–25,650 barrier.

India VIX, already climbing back above key moving averages to around 13.7 on Friday, is likely to surge further as geopolitical shocks historically push volatility 20 to 40% higher in short order.

Bank Nifty, which has shown relative resilience compared with the broader market, closed at 60,529. Its performance will remain pivotal: holding above the 60,300 to 59,900 support band could limit downside in the benchmark, while a breakdown would accelerate broader weakness.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/israel-iran-war-news-live-updates-uae-kuwait-bahrain-qatar-missile-attack-benjamin-netanyahu-ali-khamenei-tehran-mar-1-liveblog-13846937.html">Click here</a> for more info and updates through our LIVE Blog

READ MORE: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/why-markets-are-tracking-hormuz-as-that-line-between-oil-volatility-and-an-oil-crisis-13847026.html">Why markets are tracking Hormuz as that line between oil volatility and an oil crisis</a>

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Nifty’s 25,000 test is here: US-Israel strikes on Iran, oil spike fears put Dalal Street on edge

The Nifty 50 index is likely under intensified selling pressure with US-Israel strikes on Iran taking place over the weekend, which claimed the life of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s subsequent missile retaliation against Israeli and US targets in the Gulf have dramatically raised the stakes for global energy markets.

Indian equities entered the weekend on a fragile note after Nifty shed 1.25% on February 27 to settle at 25,178.65, extending a pattern of lower highs and lower lows that has been visible since mid-February. The decline came against a backdrop of persistent selling in IT and rate-sensitive sectors, inconsistent foreign institutional investor flows, and mounting worries over Middle East tensions even before the latest military actions.

With crude oil already trading at multi-month highs and the Strait of Hormuz under threat, the benchmark index (closing at 25,178.65 on Friday amid an ongoing corrective phase) now confronts a potent mix of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation fears, and risk aversion that could push it toward the critical 25,000 psychological level and beyond.

Market analysts are now assessing how severely the oil shock will feed through to Indian equities.

The corrective tone had already taken hold, as noted by Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking, with Nifty surrendering the 25,400 support and drifting toward the 25,100 gap area as per Friday.

“It will be important to see how the relatively stronger sectors, especially banking, behave in the coming sessions, as that could determine whether the market witnesses a rebound or extends the decline towards the 24,800 zone,” he said.

During February, we witnessed wild, two-sided volatility driven by high-impact events, such as the Budget and the India-US trade deal announcement on February 3, added Vipin Kumar, AVP Equity Research and PMS, Global Capital Market.

&quot;The broader chart structure remains negative; this underlying weakness makes it difficult for the Nifty index to sustain higher levels. On Monday, we expect a knee-jerk reaction across global equity markets as the Middle East enters a state of war. A sustained break below the 25,000 spot level could drag the index toward 24,600, which serves as crucial technical support,&quot; he explained.

Nilesh Jain, VP – Head of Technical and Derivative Research, Centrum Finverse, added, “The Nifty slipped below its crucial 200-DMA placed at 25,350, which is now expected to act as an immediate resistance zone. The index continues to exhibit a lower top and lower bottom formation on the daily chart, reflecting a weakening trend. The key psychological support is now seen at the 25,000 mark, and the overall structure points toward continued weakness, with pullbacks likely to face selling pressure.”

Brent crude, which closed Friday near $72 to 73 per barrel after a sharp intraday rally, is expected to open significantly higher when global markets resume trading Sunday night, with analysts warning of an immediate war premium that could drive prices toward $80 or even $83 to $95 if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist.

For India, which imports roughly 50% of its crude through this vital chokepoint, the implications are immediate: higher import bills, current account deficit widening, rupee depreciation risk, and renewed inflationary pressure.

Technical charts paint a bearish picture that the fresh geopolitical shock is likely to reinforce.

The index has decisively broken below its 200-day moving average (around 25,350), which now serves as near-term resistance. Momentum indicators, including RSI and MACD, remain in sell mode, while Friday’s session produced a large bearish candle on above-average volume.

Key support is clustered in the 25,100 to 25,000 zone — home to significant put open interest and a psychological floor. A decisive close below this band would open the path toward 24,800 or even the Budget-day low near 24,571, according to multiple technical analysts. On any bounce, resistance is expected at 25,350–25,500 initially, followed by the tougher 25,600–25,650 barrier.

India VIX, already climbing back above key moving averages to around 13.7 on Friday, is likely to surge further as geopolitical shocks historically push volatility 20 to 40% higher in short order.

Bank Nifty, which has shown relative resilience compared with the broader market, closed at 60,529. Its performance will remain pivotal: holding above the 60,300 to 59,900 support band could limit downside in the benchmark, while a breakdown would accelerate broader weakness.

Click here for more info and updates through our LIVE Blog

READ MORE: Why markets are tracking Hormuz as that line between oil volatility and an oil crisis

In nominal terms, there will be double-digit growth, but in real terms double-digit growth looks tough, India in slightly better position after the verdict as it faces a lower tariff of 15%, Incertainties related to tariffs will definitely persist

* In nominal terms, there will be double-digit growth, but in real terms double-digit growth looks tough
* India in slightly better position after the verdict as it faces a lower tariff of 15%
* Incertainties related to tariffs will definitely persist

shorts/business/daily-voice-market-sentiment-unlikely-to-improve-until-three-key-factors-stabilise-says-alpha-capital-s-pankaj-kumar

* In nominal terms, there will be double-digit growth, but in real terms double-digit growth looks tough
* India in slightly better position after the verdict as it faces a lower tariff of 15%
* Incertainties related to tariffs will definitely persist

According to Pankaj Kumar, the Partner and Fund Manager at Alpha Capital, the markets may remain volatile in short term due to global uncertainty such as Iran war, uptick in oil prices, and trade tariff.

Once these things stabilize then the markets will see positive movement, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes in nominal terms, there will be double-digit growth, but in real terms double-digit growth looks tough. "To achieve this, all sections of economy need to fire simultaneously. Manufacturing, service, agriculture, and private capex have to continuously grow beyond single digit and global uncertainty has to subside," he said.

Do you think India is in a better position, considering the continuation of the original tariffs in some form after the Supreme Court verdict? Also, do you expect greater flexibility in future trade actions?

India is in slightly better position after the verdict as it faces a lower tariff of 15%. This has also given some leverage to India to reassess what it gives in return and in case of any circumstances change then it must be recalibrated to maintain balance. It also gives India the leeway to design its own path for energy efficiency.

We should also keep in mind these trade tariff are pretty fluid. The next 150 days, before the Section 122 clock runs out, are critical for converting that leverage into a durable bilateral trade framework.

Net-net, after the Supreme Court verdict and Trump’s 15% tariff rate, do you believe capital will eventually start flowing into India?

It is too early to say, but definitely you will see some capital inflows start happening in India, the inflows would be bifurcated across sector focused such as Tech, AI Infrastructure and some FDIs in other sectors.

When the global environment becomes more predictable &amp; as our policies become more investor friendly then we will definitely receive good inflows.

Do you think tariff-related uncertainties will persist? If yes, what would be your preferred strategy — domestic-focused plays or export-oriented sectors?

Yes, uncertainties related to tariffs will definitely persist. Domestic focussed play is better place to be as we are seeing revival in earnings, valuations have also become reasonable when compared to one and half years back.

Do you expect delays in investments and capex due to the lack of clarity on tariffs?

Yes, there can be delays in private capex as capex expansion depends on many factors such as demand uncertainty due to tariffs, and raw materials prices fluctuations.

Do valuations in the private banking sector remain attractive?

Private banking has been seeing steady growth, earnings have improved last quarter, credit growth has also shown some signs of uptick, the banks have seen improvement in asset quality, credit cost remains under control.

Are you confident about the likelihood of double-digit GDP growth in FY27?

In nominal terms we will touch double-digit growth, but in real terms double-digit growth looks tough. For us to achieve this, all sections of economy need to fire simultaneously. Manufacturing, service, agriculture, and private capex have to continuously grow beyond single digit and global uncertainty has to subside.

Is earnings growth momentum misaligned with current market valuations?

Indian markets are experiencing classic sentiment-earnings disconnect. Earnings growth was good last quarter, is expected to be good next quarter, GDP just printed strong, and the RBI rate cut cycle is a tailwind. None of that is being rewarded right now — because an IT sector narrative that has been extrapolated well beyond its logical endpoint is weighing on the Nifty index mechanically, while global uncertainty is keeping FII risk appetite suppressed.

Do you think the market may remain range-bound in the short term? What could be the possible triggers to break out of this range?

Yes, markets may remain volatile in short term due to global uncertainty such as Iran war, uptick in oil prices, and trade tariff. Once these things stabilize then we will see positive movement in markets.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Market sentiment unlikely to improve until three key factors stabilise, says Alpha Capital’s Pankaj Kumar

According to Pankaj Kumar, the Partner and Fund Manager at Alpha Capital, the markets may remain volatile in short term due to global uncertainty such as Iran war, uptick in oil prices, and trade tariff.

Once these things stabilize then the markets will see positive movement, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He believes in nominal terms, there will be double-digit growth, but in real terms double-digit growth looks tough. &quot;To achieve this, all sections of economy need to fire simultaneously. Manufacturing, service, agriculture, and private capex have to continuously grow beyond single digit and global uncertainty has to subside,&quot; he said.

Do you think India is in a better position, considering the continuation of the original tariffs in some form after the Supreme Court verdict? Also, do you expect greater flexibility in future trade actions?

India is in slightly better position after the verdict as it faces a lower tariff of 15%. This has also given some leverage to India to reassess what it gives in return and in case of any circumstances change then it must be recalibrated to maintain balance. It also gives India the leeway to design its own path for energy efficiency.

We should also keep in mind these trade tariff are pretty fluid. The next 150 days, before the Section 122 clock runs out, are critical for converting that leverage into a durable bilateral trade framework.

Net-net, after the Supreme Court verdict and Trump’s 15% tariff rate, do you believe capital will eventually start flowing into India?

It is too early to say, but definitely you will see some capital inflows start happening in India, the inflows would be bifurcated across sector focused such as Tech, AI Infrastructure and some FDIs in other sectors.

When the global environment becomes more predictable &amp;amp; as our policies become more investor friendly then we will definitely receive good inflows.

Do you think tariff-related uncertainties will persist? If yes, what would be your preferred strategy — domestic-focused plays or export-oriented sectors?

Yes, uncertainties related to tariffs will definitely persist. Domestic focussed play is better place to be as we are seeing revival in earnings, valuations have also become reasonable when compared to one and half years back.

Do you expect delays in investments and capex due to the lack of clarity on tariffs?

Yes, there can be delays in private capex as capex expansion depends on many factors such as demand uncertainty due to tariffs, and raw materials prices fluctuations.

Do valuations in the private banking sector remain attractive?

Private banking has been seeing steady growth, earnings have improved last quarter, credit growth has also shown some signs of uptick, the banks have seen improvement in asset quality, credit cost remains under control.

Are you confident about the likelihood of double-digit GDP growth in FY27?

In nominal terms we will touch double-digit growth, but in real terms double-digit growth looks tough. For us to achieve this, all sections of economy need to fire simultaneously. Manufacturing, service, agriculture, and private capex have to continuously grow beyond single digit and global uncertainty has to subside.

Is earnings growth momentum misaligned with current market valuations?

Indian markets are experiencing classic sentiment-earnings disconnect. Earnings growth was good last quarter, is expected to be good next quarter, GDP just printed strong, and the RBI rate cut cycle is a tailwind. None of that is being rewarded right now — because an IT sector narrative that has been extrapolated well beyond its logical endpoint is weighing on the Nifty index mechanically, while global uncertainty is keeping FII risk appetite suppressed.

Do you think the market may remain range-bound in the short term? What could be the possible triggers to break out of this range?

Yes, markets may remain volatile in short term due to global uncertainty such as Iran war, uptick in oil prices, and trade tariff. Once these things stabilize then we will see positive movement in markets.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

USD, Gold will continue to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions remain high, Believe investors will remain underweight on IT services sector in near future, PSU banks, private banks gap in valuations should narrow

* USD, Gold will continue to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions remain high
* Believe investors will remain underweight on IT services sector in near future
* PSU banks, private banks gap in valuations should narrow

shorts/business/daily-voice-bay-capital-s-nikunj-doshi-advises-focusing-on-four-secular-themes-for-portfolio-allocation

* USD, Gold will continue to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions remain high
* Believe investors will remain underweight on IT services sector in near future
* PSU banks, private banks gap in valuations should narrow

Nikunj Doshi, Managing Partner and CIO-PMS at Bay Capital, has been focused on themes such as consumerism, financialization, digital-first companies, and IT outsourcing.

He believes these themes are secular in nature and intends to continue focusing on them.

He also believes that the current phase of the market presents opportunities to identify long-term investments. The US dollar and gold are considered the best hedges against global volatility and are likely to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions stay elevated, he said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

Do you think AI-led disruption is a bigger risk than other factors, such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions?

AI is attracting lots of investments, and the developments are happening at a very fast speed. It is really difficult to gauge the impact of these developments on various companies. However, any new developments also open doors for various opportunities. We have to analyse the impact of these developments on each industry and company separately.

In case of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, one can estimate the impact on industries and companies, but in case of AI, it will take time to understand the same, hence we would agree to the view that AI-led disruption is difficult to predict.

Do you expect AI to severely impact jobs, consumption, and urban spending?

There are various developments in the history of humankind that most people predicted a doomsday scenario. When computers were introduced, everyone feared mass-scale job losses; similarly, during COVID times, everyone feared that the retail industry would suffer huge losses and would never bounce back.

However, humans are more intelligent than computers, and new opportunities will emerge. Going forward, I think job profiles will change, and people will have to reskill to take advantage of the new opportunities.

Considering AI-related concerns and earnings pressures, are you cautious about the IT services space for the remainder of the calendar year but bullish over the longer term?

One industry which is likely to see huge uncertainty and volatility in the near future is the IT services industry. For the IT services industry shape and size of opportunities will change, and they will have to modify their service offerings to take advantage of the new developments.

Do you see a continuation of the massive rotation out of the Indian IT services industry?

Any new development brings opportunities and threats together. However, in view of current bearish sentiments, due to geopolitical reasons, investors would see threats first and would act accordingly. I therefore believe investors will remain underweight on the IT services sector in the near future.

Are PSU banks relatively cheaper than private sector banks?

The banking sector has gone through the worst credit cost cycle, and most banks have cleaned up their balance sheets. PSU banks have a better geographical spread and are better placed to garner retail deposits. With the capex cycle picking up, their asset book will also see growth.

Traditionally, PSU banks have quoted at discounts to private banks due to asset quality, as of now, with improving asset quality, we believe the gap in valuations should narrow.

Which themes are currently attracting your attention for portfolio additions?

We have been focused on Consumerism, Financialization, Digital First Companies and i-Outsourcing themes. We believe these themes are secular in nature and will continue to focus on the same.

With AI-led disruptions, we would like to identify companies that are likely to use AI to improve productivity and efficiency. Manufacturing and customer-facing companies can use AI to improve efficiencies in production, marketing, and sourcing. Many digital-first companies have seen sharp corrections in valuations, and we are monitoring those closely to identify pockets of opportunity.

Do you see any triggers that could help the market break out of consolidation and move toward fresh highs?

Investors like growth and predictability, if we can see sustained momentum in earnings, the market will scale new highs. At present, AI-led disruptions and geopolitics are the two major factors clouding growth visibility.

We, therefore, believe that the current phase of the market provides opportunities for identifying long-term investments. USD and Gold are considered the best hedges against global volatility and will continue to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions remain high.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Bay Capital's Nikunj Doshi advises focusing on four secular themes for portfolio allocation

Nikunj Doshi, Managing Partner and CIO-PMS at Bay Capital, has been focused on themes such as consumerism, financialization, digital-first companies, and IT outsourcing.

He believes these themes are secular in nature and intends to continue focusing on them.

He also believes that the current phase of the market presents opportunities to identify long-term investments. The US dollar and gold are considered the best hedges against global volatility and are likely to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions stay elevated, he said in an interview with Moneycontrol.

Do you think AI-led disruption is a bigger risk than other factors, such as tariffs and geopolitical tensions?

AI is attracting lots of investments, and the developments are happening at a very fast speed. It is really difficult to gauge the impact of these developments on various companies. However, any new developments also open doors for various opportunities. We have to analyse the impact of these developments on each industry and company separately.

In case of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, one can estimate the impact on industries and companies, but in case of AI, it will take time to understand the same, hence we would agree to the view that AI-led disruption is difficult to predict.

Do you expect AI to severely impact jobs, consumption, and urban spending?

There are various developments in the history of humankind that most people predicted a doomsday scenario. When computers were introduced, everyone feared mass-scale job losses; similarly, during COVID times, everyone feared that the retail industry would suffer huge losses and would never bounce back.

However, humans are more intelligent than computers, and new opportunities will emerge. Going forward, I think job profiles will change, and people will have to reskill to take advantage of the new opportunities.

Considering AI-related concerns and earnings pressures, are you cautious about the IT services space for the remainder of the calendar year but bullish over the longer term?

One industry which is likely to see huge uncertainty and volatility in the near future is the IT services industry. For the IT services industry shape and size of opportunities will change, and they will have to modify their service offerings to take advantage of the new developments.

Do you see a continuation of the massive rotation out of the Indian IT services industry?

Any new development brings opportunities and threats together. However, in view of current bearish sentiments, due to geopolitical reasons, investors would see threats first and would act accordingly. I therefore believe investors will remain underweight on the IT services sector in the near future.

Are PSU banks relatively cheaper than private sector banks?

The banking sector has gone through the worst credit cost cycle, and most banks have cleaned up their balance sheets. PSU banks have a better geographical spread and are better placed to garner retail deposits. With the capex cycle picking up, their asset book will also see growth.

Traditionally, PSU banks have quoted at discounts to private banks due to asset quality, as of now, with improving asset quality, we believe the gap in valuations should narrow.

Which themes are currently attracting your attention for portfolio additions?

We have been focused on Consumerism, Financialization, Digital First Companies and i-Outsourcing themes. We believe these themes are secular in nature and will continue to focus on the same.

With AI-led disruptions, we would like to identify companies that are likely to use AI to improve productivity and efficiency. Manufacturing and customer-facing companies can use AI to improve efficiencies in production, marketing, and sourcing. Many digital-first companies have seen sharp corrections in valuations, and we are monitoring those closely to identify pockets of opportunity.

Do you see any triggers that could help the market break out of consolidation and move toward fresh highs?

Investors like growth and predictability, if we can see sustained momentum in earnings, the market will scale new highs. At present, AI-led disruptions and geopolitics are the two major factors clouding growth visibility.

We, therefore, believe that the current phase of the market provides opportunities for identifying long-term investments. USD and Gold are considered the best hedges against global volatility and will continue to remain strong as long as geopolitical tensions remain high.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Weekly options data suggest that 25,000 to act as key short-term support, Resistance is seen at 25,400–25,500, VIX climbs back above all key moving averages, signalling nervousness among bulls

* Weekly options data suggest that 25,000 to act as key short-term support
* Resistance is seen at 25,400–25,500
* VIX climbs back above all key moving averages, signalling nervousness among bulls

shorts/business/technical-view-bears-eye-deeper-correction-if-nifty-slips-below-25-000-bank-nifty-breakdown-points-to-further-weakness-amid-elevated-vix

* Weekly options data suggest that 25,000 to act as key short-term support
* Resistance is seen at 25,400–25,500
* VIX climbs back above all key moving averages, signalling nervousness among bulls

The Nifty 50 was convincingly caught in a bear grip on February 27, falling over a percent amid broad-based selling across indices after remaining in a consolidation range of 25,350–25,700 for a week. It broke below the much-awaited 200-day EMA and tested the lower Bollinger Bands in a single session with above-average volumes, signalling the continuation of the lower highs–lower lows formation on February 27.

The rising VIX, trading below all key moving averages, and consistent sell signals from momentum indicators are not good signs for the market. Weak global cues, lack of progress in US–Iran nuclear talks, and inconsistent foreign flows weighed on market sentiment.

Immediate support is now seen in the 25,000–24,900 zone (psychological and rising trendline supports). A decisive fall below this range could open the door to the Budget Day low of 24,571. However, in case of a bounce back, the 25,350–25,500 levels are crucial to watch, followed by 25,600 as a key resistance level, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened lower at 25,460 and remained under pressure throughout the session. Selling widened further in late trade, and the index finished at 25,179, down 318 points (1.25 percent), forming a long bearish candle on the daily timeframe. The index also broke the upward-sloping support trendline connecting the lows of February 1 and February 24.

Momentum indicators maintained sell signals, with the RSI declining to 40.65. The MACD weakened further, with additional downside seen in the histogram. The Stochastic RSI flattened at 8.25 and entered the oversold zone. All this indicates continued weakness in the near term.

"The Nifty slipped below its crucial 200-DMA placed at 25,350, which is now expected to act as an immediate resistance zone. The index continues to exhibit a lower top and lower bottom formation on the daily chart, reflecting a weakening trend," said Nilesh Jain, VP – Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse.

The key psychological support is now seen at the 25,000 mark, and the overall structure points toward continued weakness, with pullbacks likely to face selling pressure, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, spiked after four days of weakness. Rising above short-term moving averages, it climbed back above all key moving averages, signalling nervousness among bulls. It jumped 4.9 percent to 13.7 on Friday, though it was down 4.6 percent for the week. As long as it firmly stays above the 12 zone, bulls may remain at significant risk.

The weekly options data suggest that 25,000, where the maximum Put open interest is placed, is expected to act as key short-term support, while resistance is seen at 25,400–25,500, which holds the maximum Call open interest.

The maximum Call writing was seen at the 25,400, 25,300, and 25,350 strikes, while the maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,150, 25,100, and 25,000 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty decisively broke below the last four-day consolidation range by breaching immediate supports at 61,000 and 60,800. It fell 659 points (1.08 percent) to 60,529 with above-average volumes, forming a long bearish candle on the daily charts.

Further, the index fell below the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands (60,635), in a single session. If the index sustains below 60,600, the 60,000–59,800 zone (50-day EMA and 10-week EMA) will be the next levels to watch on the downside, followed by 59,500. On the upside, hurdles are seen at 60,800–61,000, followed by 61,500, according to experts.

Momentum indicators weakened further, with the RSI declining to 50.66 and sustaining below the reference line. The MACD turned bearish, with the histogram falling below the zero line for the first time since February 3. The Stochastic RSI has maintained a negative crossover since February 19. All this indicates increasing bearish momentum.

For the week, the banking index dropped 1.05 percent and formed a red candle on the weekly timeframe.

"The 60,300–60,250 zone will act as an immediate crucial support base for the index. A breach below this range could drag Bank Nifty toward the 59,500 level," said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

On the upside, according to him, the 60,700–60,800 zone is expected to act as an immediate significant resistance band. A sustained breakout above 60,900 could pave the way for a near-term rally toward the 61,500 level in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Technical View: Bears eye deeper correction if Nifty slips below 25,000; Bank Nifty breakdown points to further weakness amid elevated VIX

The Nifty 50 was convincingly caught in a bear grip on February 27, falling over a percent amid broad-based selling across indices after remaining in a consolidation range of 25,350–25,700 for a week. It broke below the much-awaited 200-day EMA and tested the lower Bollinger Bands in a single session with above-average volumes, signalling the continuation of the lower highs–lower lows formation on February 27.

The rising VIX, trading below all key moving averages, and consistent sell signals from momentum indicators are not good signs for the market. Weak global cues, lack of progress in US–Iran nuclear talks, and inconsistent foreign flows weighed on market sentiment.

Immediate support is now seen in the 25,000–24,900 zone (psychological and rising trendline supports). A decisive fall below this range could open the door to the Budget Day low of 24,571. However, in case of a bounce back, the 25,350–25,500 levels are crucial to watch, followed by 25,600 as a key resistance level, according to experts.

The Nifty 50 opened lower at 25,460 and remained under pressure throughout the session. Selling widened further in late trade, and the index finished at 25,179, down 318 points (1.25 percent), forming a long bearish candle on the daily timeframe. The index also broke the upward-sloping support trendline connecting the lows of February 1 and February 24.

Momentum indicators maintained sell signals, with the RSI declining to 40.65. The MACD weakened further, with additional downside seen in the histogram. The Stochastic RSI flattened at 8.25 and entered the oversold zone. All this indicates continued weakness in the near term.

&quot;The Nifty slipped below its crucial 200-DMA placed at 25,350, which is now expected to act as an immediate resistance zone. The index continues to exhibit a lower top and lower bottom formation on the daily chart, reflecting a weakening trend,&quot; said Nilesh Jain, VP – Head of Technical and Derivative Research at Centrum Finverse.

The key psychological support is now seen at the 25,000 mark, and the overall structure points toward continued weakness, with pullbacks likely to face selling pressure, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, spiked after four days of weakness. Rising above short-term moving averages, it climbed back above all key moving averages, signalling nervousness among bulls. It jumped 4.9 percent to 13.7 on Friday, though it was down 4.6 percent for the week. As long as it firmly stays above the 12 zone, bulls may remain at significant risk.

The weekly options data suggest that 25,000, where the maximum Put open interest is placed, is expected to act as key short-term support, while resistance is seen at 25,400–25,500, which holds the maximum Call open interest.

The maximum Call writing was seen at the 25,400, 25,300, and 25,350 strikes, while the maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,150, 25,100, and 25,000 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty decisively broke below the last four-day consolidation range by breaching immediate supports at 61,000 and 60,800. It fell 659 points (1.08 percent) to 60,529 with above-average volumes, forming a long bearish candle on the daily charts.

Further, the index fell below the 10-day and 20-day EMAs, as well as the midline of the Bollinger Bands (60,635), in a single session. If the index sustains below 60,600, the 60,000–59,800 zone (50-day EMA and 10-week EMA) will be the next levels to watch on the downside, followed by 59,500. On the upside, hurdles are seen at 60,800–61,000, followed by 61,500, according to experts.

Momentum indicators weakened further, with the RSI declining to 50.66 and sustaining below the reference line. The MACD turned bearish, with the histogram falling below the zero line for the first time since February 3. The Stochastic RSI has maintained a negative crossover since February 19. All this indicates increasing bearish momentum.

For the week, the banking index dropped 1.05 percent and formed a red candle on the weekly timeframe.

&quot;The 60,300–60,250 zone will act as an immediate crucial support base for the index. A breach below this range could drag Bank Nifty toward the 59,500 level,&quot; said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

On the upside, according to him, the 60,700–60,800 zone is expected to act as an immediate significant resistance band. A sustained breakout above 60,900 could pave the way for a near-term rally toward the 61,500 level in the short term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex and Nifty fell over 1% amid broad-based sectoral selling, IT and media sectors ended higher while others declined 1-2%, Vishal Mega Mart dropped 7%, Netweb Tech rose 4% on news

* Sensex and Nifty fell over 1% amid broad-based sectoral selling
* IT and media sectors ended higher while others declined 1-2%
* Vishal Mega Mart dropped 7%, Netweb Tech rose 4% on news

Indian benchmark indices closed lower on February 27, with Nifty below 25,200 amid broad selling except IT and media. Sensex fell 961 points, Nifty 318. Auto, bank, FMCG, metal, realty, telecom dropped 1-2%. Nearly 100 stocks hit 52-week highs, 330 hit lows.

shorts/business/taking-stock-sensex-sinks-961-pts-nifty-below-25-200-auto-fmcg-metal-stocks-hammered

* Sensex and Nifty fell over 1% amid broad-based sectoral selling
* IT and media sectors ended higher while others declined 1-2%
* Vishal Mega Mart dropped 7%, Netweb Tech rose 4% on news

The Indian benchmark indices ended lower on February 27, with the Nifty closing below the 25,200 mark amid broad-based selling across sectors, except IT and media. After a weak start, the market remained under pressure throughout the session due to subdued global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which kept investor sentiment cautious.

At close, the Sensex was down 961.42 points or 1.17 percent at 81,287.19, and the Nifty was down 317.90 points or 1.25 percent at 25,178.65. Nifty Midcap and smallcap indices also down 1% each.

For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty down 1.5% each.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/gold-prices-rising-in-india-on-geopolitics-central-bank-buying-world-gold-council-ceo-13845500.html">Gold prices rising in India on geopolitics, central bank buying: World Gold Council CEO</a>

Dr Reddy's Labs, Bharti Airtel, M&amp;M, HDFC Life, Sun Pharma were among the top drags on the Nifty, while gainers were Trent, HCL Tech, Infosys, Apollo Hospitals.

Among sectors, auto, bank, FMCG, metal, realty, telecom shed 1-2%, while IT, media, consumer durables ended in the green.

In stock specific action, Vishal Mega Mart shares plunged 7% after 14% equity change hands in block deals, Netweb Technologies India share price rose 4% on collaboration with Vertiv, MSTC shares added 2% on emerging lowest bidder for a tender of Coal India.

Infobeans Technologies shares gained 7% as shares trade ex-bonus, Mahanagar Gas share price rose nearly 2% after Ambit Capital upgrades to 'buy', RR Kabel share price rose 3% after Axis Capital upgrades to 'buy'.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/earnings/india-slips-to-fourth-in-msci-em-index-as-weight-falls-below-14-13844388.html">India slips to fourth in MSCI EM Index as weight falls below 14%</a>

Nearly 100 stocks touched their 52-week high, including Sai Life Sciences, Schaeffler Industries, Apar Industries, Graphite India, JK Bank, SAIL, Hitachi Energy, IOC, Polycab, Bharat Forge, Bank of Maharashtra, Lupin, Bank of India, Data Patterns, Eicher Motors, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-high-bse/?indexName=BSE%2520500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

More than 330 stocks touched their 52-week low, including Just Dial, Inox Wind, Firstsource Solutions, Suzlon Energy, Reliance Power, Afcons Infra, IRCTC, Cello World, Syngene International, Poly Medicure, Vedant Fashions, Emami, C. E. Info Systems, ACC, IRFC, BASF, Page Industries, Relaxo Footwear, Bajaj Housing, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%20500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

Outlook for March 2

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets traded under pressure on Friday and ended sharply lower, extending the corrective tone amid weak cues. The Nifty opened on a weak note and remained under selling pressure for most of the session. A sharp bout of selling in the final hours dragged the index further down, and it eventually settled near the day’s low at around 25,178.65 level.

Selling was largely broad-based across sectors. Realty, auto and FMCG stocks were among the major laggards, while the IT pack showed some resilience and managed to end on a flat note. The broader markets also witnessed profit booking, with both midcap and smallcap indices declining by around 1% each, reflecting cautious sentiment among participants.

Investor sentiment weakened due to a combination of factors including inconsistent foreign flows, weak global cues and lingering geopolitical tensions. In addition, the underperformance of select heavyweights across sectors further intensified the decline.

The Nifty has not only surrendered the support zone of 25,400 but has also moved closer to the gap area around the 25,100 mark. It will be important to see how the relatively stronger sectors, especially banking, behave in the coming sessions, as that could determine whether the market witnesses a rebound or extends the decline towards the 24,800 zone. Meanwhile, participants are advised to maintain a cautious stance, keep position sizes light and manage risk carefully.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Friday, the benchmark index Nifty 50 opened with a minor gap-down and continued its downward trajectory throughout the session. The index has formed a strong bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting sustained selling pressure. It eventually settled lower by 317 points near the 25,178 mark, indicating continued weakness in market sentiment.

From a technical perspective, Nifty has now slipped below its 200-day EMA, a key long-term trend indicator. This breakdown underscore that sellers remain firmly in control, with price action suggesting a potential retest of the 25,000 zone in the near term if weakness persists.

Going ahead, the 25,030 – 25,000 zone will act as an immediate support area for the index. A decisive break below 25,000 may accelerate the decline toward 24,800 levels. On the upside, the 25,350 – 25,380 zone will act as an immediate resistance, and any pullback toward this band is likely to face selling pressure.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Taking Stock: Sensex sinks 961 pts, Nifty below 25,200; auto, FMCG, metal stocks hammered

The Indian benchmark indices ended lower on February 27, with the Nifty closing below the 25,200 mark amid broad-based selling across sectors, except IT and media. After a weak start, the market remained under pressure throughout the session due to subdued global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which kept investor sentiment cautious.

At close, the Sensex was down 961.42 points or 1.17 percent at 81,287.19, and the Nifty was down 317.90 points or 1.25 percent at 25,178.65. Nifty Midcap and smallcap indices also down 1% each.

For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty down 1.5% each.

Also Read - Gold prices rising in India on geopolitics, central bank buying: World Gold Council CEO

Dr Reddy's Labs, Bharti Airtel, M&amp;amp;M, HDFC Life, Sun Pharma were among the top drags on the Nifty, while gainers were Trent, HCL Tech, Infosys, Apollo Hospitals.

Among sectors, auto, bank, FMCG, metal, realty, telecom shed 1-2%, while IT, media, consumer durables ended in the green.

In stock specific action, Vishal Mega Mart shares plunged 7% after 14% equity change hands in block deals, Netweb Technologies India share price rose 4% on collaboration with Vertiv, MSTC shares added 2% on emerging lowest bidder for a tender of Coal India.

Infobeans Technologies shares gained 7% as shares trade ex-bonus, Mahanagar Gas share price rose nearly 2% after Ambit Capital upgrades to 'buy', RR Kabel share price rose 3% after Axis Capital upgrades to 'buy'.

Also Read - India slips to fourth in MSCI EM Index as weight falls below 14%

Nearly 100 stocks touched their 52-week high, including Sai Life Sciences, Schaeffler Industries, Apar Industries, Graphite India, JK Bank, SAIL, Hitachi Energy, IOC, Polycab, Bharat Forge, Bank of Maharashtra, Lupin, Bank of India, Data Patterns, Eicher Motors, among others. Click to View More

More than 330 stocks touched their 52-week low, including Just Dial, Inox Wind, Firstsource Solutions, Suzlon Energy, Reliance Power, Afcons Infra, IRCTC, Cello World, Syngene International, Poly Medicure, Vedant Fashions, Emami, C. E. Info Systems, ACC, IRFC, BASF, Page Industries, Relaxo Footwear, Bajaj Housing, among others. Click to View More

Outlook for March 2

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets traded under pressure on Friday and ended sharply lower, extending the corrective tone amid weak cues. The Nifty opened on a weak note and remained under selling pressure for most of the session. A sharp bout of selling in the final hours dragged the index further down, and it eventually settled near the day’s low at around 25,178.65 level.

Selling was largely broad-based across sectors. Realty, auto and FMCG stocks were among the major laggards, while the IT pack showed some resilience and managed to end on a flat note. The broader markets also witnessed profit booking, with both midcap and smallcap indices declining by around 1% each, reflecting cautious sentiment among participants.

Investor sentiment weakened due to a combination of factors including inconsistent foreign flows, weak global cues and lingering geopolitical tensions. In addition, the underperformance of select heavyweights across sectors further intensified the decline.

The Nifty has not only surrendered the support zone of 25,400 but has also moved closer to the gap area around the 25,100 mark. It will be important to see how the relatively stronger sectors, especially banking, behave in the coming sessions, as that could determine whether the market witnesses a rebound or extends the decline towards the 24,800 zone. Meanwhile, participants are advised to maintain a cautious stance, keep position sizes light and manage risk carefully.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Friday, the benchmark index Nifty 50 opened with a minor gap-down and continued its downward trajectory throughout the session. The index has formed a strong bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting sustained selling pressure. It eventually settled lower by 317 points near the 25,178 mark, indicating continued weakness in market sentiment.

From a technical perspective, Nifty has now slipped below its 200-day EMA, a key long-term trend indicator. This breakdown underscore that sellers remain firmly in control, with price action suggesting a potential retest of the 25,000 zone in the near term if weakness persists.

Going ahead, the 25,030 – 25,000 zone will act as an immediate support area for the index. A decisive break below 25,000 may accelerate the decline toward 24,800 levels. On the upside, the 25,350 – 25,380 zone will act as an immediate resistance, and any pullback toward this band is likely to face selling pressure.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

11 out of 16 years NIFTY MNC has given positive returns in March.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	31,956.18	32,209.27	32,361.93	31,803.52	31,550.43	31,397.77	31,144.68
Fibonacci	31,958.51	32,054.27	32,209.27	31,803.52	31,648.52	31,552.76	31,397.77
Camarilla	31,740.29	31,777.49	31,814.68	31,803.52	31,665.91	31,628.71	31,591.52

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY MNC

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

News

Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers