NIFTY MIDCAP 150

Nifty and Sensex fell, ending a three-day win streak before the Budget., Metal index fell 5%, while pharma, FMCG, and media sectors gained up to 1.8%, South Indian Bank shares crashed 15% as CEO decided not to seek reappointment

* Nifty and Sensex fell, ending a three-day win streak before the Budget.
* Metal index fell 5%, while pharma, FMCG, and media sectors gained up to 1.8%
* South Indian Bank shares crashed 15% as CEO decided not to seek reappointment

Dalal Street indices ended lower, snapping a three-day winning streak as Nifty fell below 25,250 intraday amid cautious sentiment before the Union Budget. Metals led sector losses, while pharma and FMCG gained. Over 280 stocks hit 52-week lows.

shorts/business/taking-stock-markets-snap-3-day-winning-streak-sensex-down-297-pts-nifty-below-25-350-ahead-of-budget

* Nifty and Sensex fell, ending a three-day win streak before the Budget.
* Metal index fell 5%, while pharma, FMCG, and media sectors gained up to 1.8%
* South Indian Bank shares crashed 15% as CEO decided not to seek reappointment

Bears returned on Dalal Street as the benchmark indices snapped a three-day winning streak, with the Nifty slipping below 25,250, intraday, amid cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Union Budget scheduled for Sunday, February 1.

Amid weak global cues, Indian benchmark indices opened lower, with the Nifty slipping below 25,300 in early trade, while extended mid-session selling dragged the index to the day’s low of 25,213.65. However, buying interest in the second half helped the Nifty recover to close above 25,300, near the day’s high.

At close, the Sensex was down 296.59 points or 0.36 percent at 82,269.78, and the Nifty was down 98.25 points or 0.39 percent at 25,320.65.

The broader indices ended mixed, with the Nifty Midcap index slipping 0.2%, while the Smallcap index gained 0.3%.

For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty50 indices rose 1 percent each.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/gold-silver-etfs-crash-up-to-14-as-precious-metals-tumble-from-record-highs-should-you-buy-13799082.html">Gold, silver ETFs crash up to 14% as precious metals tumble from record highs: Should you buy?</a>

Hindalco, Tata Steel, Coal India, ONGC, ICICI Bank were among major losers on the Nifty, while gainers were Tata Consumer, Apollo Hospitals, Nestle, M&amp;M, ITC.

Among sectors, metal index shed 5%, oil &amp; gas, Bank, IT, Energy shed 0.5-1%, while pharma, media, consumer durables, FMCG rose 0.7-1.8%.

In stock specifics, South Indian Bank shares crashed 15% as CEO doesn’t seek reappointment, Swiggy shares price fell 4% as consolidated losses increase, Paytm shares fell 3% despite company reports profit in Q3, ACME Solar shares rose 4% after signing power purchase agreement (PPA) with NHPC, Capri Global share price shed 2.5% even as Q3 profit jumps 99.5%, NTPC Green Energy share price declined 6.5% after profit slips 73%. Meanwhile, Genesys International Corporation jumped 5% on winning an urban digital twin mapping platform project, and Ajanta Pharma rose 3% on better-than-expected Q3 results.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/earnings/select-psu-stock-rally-lifts-sector-s-market-share-to-17-month-high-13798606.html">Select PSU stock rally lifts sector’s market share to 17-month high</a>

More than 280 stocks touched their 52-week lows, including Rainbow Children, Aditya Birla Real, Concord Biotech, LT Technology, Colgate, CG Consumer, Akzo Nobel, ACC, Syngene International, Emami, Blue Jet, Berger Paints, Newgen Software, ITC, Brigade Enterprises, Whirlpool, KPIT Technologies, Poly Medicure, among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%2520500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

Outlook for February 1

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

The Indian market posted weekly gains, led by recovery across market cap. The BSE midcap and the small cap indices outperformed the larger peers. BSE Metals (commodity rally), capital goods (budget expectation) and Oil &amp; Gas (rise in oil price) were the major gainers in this week, whereas BSE Auto index (reacted to India EU FTA) witnessed correction.

The INR (vs USD) that has been weakening in recent weeks, hit fresh record lows this week. Oil prices have been climbing sharply in this week — with Brent crude and WTI hitting multi-month highs on rising geopolitical risk. From India’s perspective, sharp increase in oil prices can fuel inflation, put pressure on currency and widen the current account deficit.

The Indian market witnessed a decent Q3FY26 earnings season, with aggregate earnings marginally ahead of expectations until now. FII continues to sell Indian equities with net selling in cash market in Jan 2026 (till date) crossing Rs 40,000 crore.

Global equity markets priced in weakening of the Dollar index, the US Fed keeping policy rates unchanged, increased geopolitical tensions, and a sharp increase in gold and silver prices. In the coming week, Union Budget, commodity price movement, geo-political developments, currency movements, Q3FY26 results &amp; management commentary and FII activity will influence the Indian equity market.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

Nifty opened on a weak note and spent most of the session in a narrow, sideways range. The index found strong intraday support twice in the 25220–25210 zone and staged a smart recovery towards the last hour. However, it closed the day at 25,321, down 0.39% for the day. After bouncing off its 200-day EMA in the previous session, Nifty failed to see meaningful follow-through and ended the day trading inside the prior day’s range.

Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Nifty is placed in the 25,450–25,500 zone, with the Index failing to decisively close above this zone after attempting twice in the last six sessions. A decisive breakout above this zone could result in Nifty extending its pullback towards 25,650, followed by 25,800 in the near term. On the downside, the 200-day EMA zone of 25,200–25,150 zone is likely to act as a strong support.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Taking Stock: Markets snap 3-day winning streak; Sensex down 297 pts, Nifty below 25,350 ahead of Budget

Bears returned on Dalal Street as the benchmark indices snapped a three-day winning streak, with the Nifty slipping below 25,250, intraday, amid cautious investor sentiment ahead of the Union Budget scheduled for Sunday, February 1.

Amid weak global cues, Indian benchmark indices opened lower, with the Nifty slipping below 25,300 in early trade, while extended mid-session selling dragged the index to the day’s low of 25,213.65. However, buying interest in the second half helped the Nifty recover to close above 25,300, near the day’s high.

At close, the Sensex was down 296.59 points or 0.36 percent at 82,269.78, and the Nifty was down 98.25 points or 0.39 percent at 25,320.65.

The broader indices ended mixed, with the Nifty Midcap index slipping 0.2%, while the Smallcap index gained 0.3%.

For the week, BSE Sensex and Nifty50 indices rose 1 percent each.

Also Read: Gold, silver ETFs crash up to 14% as precious metals tumble from record highs: Should you buy?

Hindalco, Tata Steel, Coal India, ONGC, ICICI Bank were among major losers on the Nifty, while gainers were Tata Consumer, Apollo Hospitals, Nestle, M&amp;amp;M, ITC.

Among sectors, metal index shed 5%, oil &amp;amp; gas, Bank, IT, Energy shed 0.5-1%, while pharma, media, consumer durables, FMCG rose 0.7-1.8%.

In stock specifics, South Indian Bank shares crashed 15% as CEO doesn’t seek reappointment, Swiggy shares price fell 4% as consolidated losses increase, Paytm shares fell 3% despite company reports profit in Q3, ACME Solar shares rose 4% after signing power purchase agreement (PPA) with NHPC, Capri Global share price shed 2.5% even as Q3 profit jumps 99.5%, NTPC Green Energy share price declined 6.5% after profit slips 73%. Meanwhile, Genesys International Corporation jumped 5% on winning an urban digital twin mapping platform project, and Ajanta Pharma rose 3% on better-than-expected Q3 results.

Also Read - Select PSU stock rally lifts sector’s market share to 17-month high

More than 280 stocks touched their 52-week lows, including Rainbow Children, Aditya Birla Real, Concord Biotech, LT Technology, Colgate, CG Consumer, Akzo Nobel, ACC, Syngene International, Emami, Blue Jet, Berger Paints, Newgen Software, ITC, Brigade Enterprises, Whirlpool, KPIT Technologies, Poly Medicure, among others. Click to View More

Outlook for February 1

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

The Indian market posted weekly gains, led by recovery across market cap. The BSE midcap and the small cap indices outperformed the larger peers. BSE Metals (commodity rally), capital goods (budget expectation) and Oil &amp;amp; Gas (rise in oil price) were the major gainers in this week, whereas BSE Auto index (reacted to India EU FTA) witnessed correction.

The INR (vs USD) that has been weakening in recent weeks, hit fresh record lows this week. Oil prices have been climbing sharply in this week — with Brent crude and WTI hitting multi-month highs on rising geopolitical risk. From India’s perspective, sharp increase in oil prices can fuel inflation, put pressure on currency and widen the current account deficit.

The Indian market witnessed a decent Q3FY26 earnings season, with aggregate earnings marginally ahead of expectations until now. FII continues to sell Indian equities with net selling in cash market in Jan 2026 (till date) crossing Rs 40,000 crore.

Global equity markets priced in weakening of the Dollar index, the US Fed keeping policy rates unchanged, increased geopolitical tensions, and a sharp increase in gold and silver prices. In the coming week, Union Budget, commodity price movement, geo-political developments, currency movements, Q3FY26 results &amp;amp; management commentary and FII activity will influence the Indian equity market.

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

Nifty opened on a weak note and spent most of the session in a narrow, sideways range. The index found strong intraday support twice in the 25220–25210 zone and staged a smart recovery towards the last hour. However, it closed the day at 25,321, down 0.39% for the day. After bouncing off its 200-day EMA in the previous session, Nifty failed to see meaningful follow-through and ended the day trading inside the prior day’s range.

Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Nifty is placed in the 25,450–25,500 zone, with the Index failing to decisively close above this zone after attempting twice in the last six sessions. A decisive breakout above this zone could result in Nifty extending its pullback towards 25,650, followed by 25,800 in the near term. On the downside, the 200-day EMA zone of 25,200–25,150 zone is likely to act as a strong support.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Live: Nifty recovers 100 pts from day's low, metals under pressure | Closing Bell

Sensex and Nifty drop sharply after three-day rally, led by IT and metal stocks., Market sentiment hit by FII selling, rising crude prices, and weak global cues., Caution ahead of Union Budget; India VIX rises, signaling increased volatility.

* Sensex and Nifty drop sharply after three-day rally, led by IT and metal stocks.
* Market sentiment hit by FII selling, rising crude prices, and weak global cues.
* Caution ahead of Union Budget; India VIX rises, signaling increased volatility.

Sensex and Nifty fell sharply after a three-day rally, hit by profit booking in metal and IT stocks, renewed FII selling, rising crude prices, weak global cues, caution ahead of the Union Budget, and increased market volatility.

shorts/business/sensex-falls-350-pts-nifty-below-25-350-weak-global-cues-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

* Sensex and Nifty drop sharply after three-day rally, led by IT and metal stocks.
* Market sentiment hit by FII selling, rising crude prices, and weak global cues.
* Caution ahead of Union Budget; India VIX rises, signaling increased volatility.

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on Friday after a three-day rally, weighed down by selling in IT and metal stocks, weak global cues and caution ahead of the Union Budget to be presented on February 1.

Fresh foreign fund outflows and subdued trends in overseas markets further dented investor sentiment.

The Sensex settled 296.59 points or 0.36 percent lower at 82,269.78, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,320.65, down 98.25 points or 0.39 percent.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/ironsteel/hindalcoindustries/HI">Hindalco Industries</a>, Tata Steel and Coal India were among the major laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 6 percent, while <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/hospitalsmedical-services/apollohospitalsenterprises/AHE">Apollo Hospitals Enterprise</a> and Tata Consumer Products were among the top gainers, risnig up to 2 percent.
<h3>Key factors behind market decline</h3>
1) Profit booking in metal shares: Metal shares were among the biggest laggards, with the Nifty Metal index declining up to 4 percent, retreating from the gains of the past three sessions. The sector had risen sharply earlier on higher base metal prices amid geopolitical concerns.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said a potentially less dovish Federal Reserve chair, a rebound in the dollar and overbought conditions had contributed to the decline in metal prices.

2) Renewed FII selling: Investor sentiment was also hit by renewed selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) after a brief pause on Wednesday. FIIs have remained net sellers for most of January so far, turning net buyers in only two sessions during the month.
<h3><a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-suggests-a-weak-start-us-markets-mixed-asia-gains-liveblog-13798597.html" target="_blank">Stock Market LIVE Updates</a></h3>
3) Rise in crude prices: Crude oil prices added to the pressure, rising to a five-month high on Thursday amid concerns over possible supply disruptions if the US attacks Iran, a major OPEC producer. Higher oil prices are a negative for India, which is a net importer of crude.

"The spike in Brent crude to near USD 70 is a headwind for Indian macros in general and for industries that use oil as an input," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.

4) Caution ahead of union budget: Markets also remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget, which Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present in Parliament on Sunday. The stock markets will operate in a special trading session on Budget day.

"As we near Budget day, there are both headwinds and tailwinds for the market. Geopolitical issues continue to plague global trade, with persistent threats of tariff weaponisation," Vijayakumar said.

5) Weak global cues: In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were quoting lower. US markets ended mostly in the red on Thursday.

6) Rise in India Vix: The India VIX, which measures market volatility and reflects investor fear, rose nearly 4 percent to 13.85, indicating increased uncertainty in the near term.

7) Sellingin IT shares: IT stocks also came under pressure, with the sector declining up to 2 percent, tracking a sharp overnight sell-off in the Nasdaq.

8) Fears of Hawkish Fed chair: Gold prices slid more than 4 percent amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve could get a more hawkish chair. US President Donald Trump said he would announce his pick to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. A more hawkish stance by the Fed typically strengthens the dollar and tightens global liquidity, which can weigh on emerging markets like India.

"Rumours that Kevin Warsh will replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair have weighed on gold during Asian trade," said Matt Simpson, Senior Analyst at StoneX.
<h3>Technical outlook </h3>
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the 25,180 level had earlier provided support, allowing the market to rebound.

"However, the consolidation seen after moving past 25,400 warrants caution. Inability to sustain above the 25,390–25,360 region could weaken the upside momentum, at least for today," he said.

(With inputs from Reuters)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

Markets snap 3-day rally ahead of Budget: Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends below 25,350; key factors behind decline

Sensex news today: Markets snap 3-day rally ahead of Budget: Sensex settles 300 pts lower, Nifty ends below 25,350; key factors behind decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on Friday after a three-day rally, weighed down by selling in IT and metal stocks, weak global cues and caution ahead of the Union Budget to be presented on February 1.

Fresh foreign fund outflows and subdued trends in overseas markets further dented investor sentiment.

The Sensex settled 296.59 points or 0.36 percent lower at 82,269.78, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,320.65, down 98.25 points or 0.39 percent.

Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel and Coal India were among the major laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 6 percent, while Apollo Hospitals Enterprise and Tata Consumer Products were among the top gainers, risnig up to 2 percent.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Profit booking in metal shares: Metal shares were among the biggest laggards, with the Nifty Metal index declining up to 4 percent, retreating from the gains of the past three sessions. The sector had risen sharply earlier on higher base metal prices amid geopolitical concerns.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said a potentially less dovish Federal Reserve chair, a rebound in the dollar and overbought conditions had contributed to the decline in metal prices.

2) Renewed FII selling: Investor sentiment was also hit by renewed selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) after a brief pause on Wednesday. FIIs have remained net sellers for most of January so far, turning net buyers in only two sessions during the month.
Stock Market LIVE Updates
3) Rise in crude prices: Crude oil prices added to the pressure, rising to a five-month high on Thursday amid concerns over possible supply disruptions if the US attacks Iran, a major OPEC producer. Higher oil prices are a negative for India, which is a net importer of crude.

&quot;The spike in Brent crude to near USD 70 is a headwind for Indian macros in general and for industries that use oil as an input,&quot; said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.

4) Caution ahead of union budget: Markets also remained cautious ahead of the Union Budget, which Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present in Parliament on Sunday. The stock markets will operate in a special trading session on Budget day.

&quot;As we near Budget day, there are both headwinds and tailwinds for the market. Geopolitical issues continue to plague global trade, with persistent threats of tariff weaponisation,&quot; Vijayakumar said.

5) Weak global cues: In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225, China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were quoting lower. US markets ended mostly in the red on Thursday.

6) Rise in India Vix: The India VIX, which measures market volatility and reflects investor fear, rose nearly 4 percent to 13.85, indicating increased uncertainty in the near term.

7) Sellingin IT shares: IT stocks also came under pressure, with the sector declining up to 2 percent, tracking a sharp overnight sell-off in the Nasdaq.

8) Fears of Hawkish Fed chair: Gold prices slid more than 4 percent amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve could get a more hawkish chair. US President Donald Trump said he would announce his pick to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. A more hawkish stance by the Fed typically strengthens the dollar and tightens global liquidity, which can weigh on emerging markets like India.

&quot;Rumours that Kevin Warsh will replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair have weighed on gold during Asian trade,&quot; said Matt Simpson, Senior Analyst at StoneX.
Technical outlook 
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said the 25,180 level had earlier provided support, allowing the market to rebound.

&quot;However, the consolidation seen after moving past 25,400 warrants caution. Inability to sustain above the 25,390–25,360 region could weaken the upside momentum, at least for today,&quot; he said.

(With inputs from Reuters)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Live: Will Nifty take a breather after 3-day rally amid mixed global cues | Opening Bell

Union Budget must reassure markets on growth support without sacrificing fiscal discipline, Broad, consumption-oriented stimulus in Budget cannot be completely ruled out, Sub-10 percent earnings growth outcome for FY26 cannot be ruled out

* Union Budget must reassure markets on growth support without sacrificing fiscal discipline
* Broad, consumption-oriented stimulus in Budget cannot be completely ruled out
* Sub-10 percent earnings growth outcome for FY26 cannot be ruled out

shorts/business/daily-voice-union-budget-must-reassure-markets-on-growth-support-without-sacrificing-fiscal-discipline-says-invasset-s-anirudh-garg

* Union Budget must reassure markets on growth support without sacrificing fiscal discipline
* Broad, consumption-oriented stimulus in Budget cannot be completely ruled out
* Sub-10 percent earnings growth outcome for FY26 cannot be ruled out

Market expectations from the Union Budget are centred on continuity rather than surprise, according to Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at INVasset PMS. The key requirement, he said in an interview with Moneycontrol, is reassurance that growth support will continue without compromising fiscal discipline.

He believes sustained capital expenditure—particularly in infrastructure, manufacturing, and the energy transition—remains the most important driver of market sentiment, as it directly enhances earnings visibility and encourages private investment.

Garg also noted that a sub-10 percent earnings growth outcome for FY26 cannot be ruled out, especially if global uncertainties persist and margin pressures remain in select sectors. However, even if growth moderates below 10 percent, it would still reflect a resilient earnings cycle, supported by structural domestic drivers rather than cyclical excesses.

Is the India–EU deal still attractive at a time when India is facing tariff and heightened geopolitical concerns?

The India–EU trade deal remains attractive even amid tariff pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. In fact, the current global environment arguably increases its strategic value. With supply chains being reshaped and protectionist tendencies rising in parts of the world, a deeper trade partnership with the EU offers India diversified market access and reduced dependence on a few trading blocs. The agreement is expected to ease tariff barriers across several key export categories, improving competitiveness for Indian manufacturers and service providers.

Beyond tariffs, the deal also provides regulatory alignment, clearer trade rules and long-term visibility, which are especially valuable during periods of geopolitical stress. While short-term disruptions and negotiations may create noise, the structural benefits of stable access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets remain intact. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the India–EU deal continues to be a strategically sound and economically relevant pillar for India’s trade ambitions.

Do you expect significant investment inflows into India following the India–EU deal?

Meaningful investment inflows are likely over time, but they are unlikely to be immediate or front-loaded. The India–EU deal primarily improves long-term visibility by reducing tariff uncertainty and aligning standards, which is a key prerequisite for cross-border capital commitments. For European companies, clarity on market access and regulatory stability makes India more attractive as a manufacturing base and as a gateway to other emerging markets.

That said, investment decisions tend to follow execution rather than announcements. Capital inflows will depend on how quickly the agreement translates into on-ground ease of doing business, faster approvals and sector-specific incentives.

Manufacturing, clean energy, pharmaceuticals and technology services are likely to see the earliest interest. Over the medium term, the deal could support a steady rise in foreign direct investment rather than a sudden surge, anchoring India more firmly into global supply chains at a time when diversification away from concentrated geographies is a priority.

What are your key expectations from the Union Budget that could help market sentiment?

Market expectations from the Union Budget remain centred on continuity rather than surprise. The key requirement is reassurance that growth support will continue without compromising fiscal discipline. Sustained capital expenditure, particularly in infrastructure, manufacturing and energy transition, remains the most important sentiment driver, as it directly supports earnings visibility and encourages private investment.

Beyond spending, clarity on tax stability and incremental reforms to improve ease of doing business could further strengthen confidence. Measures that simplify compliance, support MSMEs and enhance manufacturing competitiveness would be viewed positively.

The Budget does not need to be overtly expansionary to lift markets; consistency, predictability and a clear medium-term roadmap are far more important. If the Budget reinforces the capex-led growth strategy while keeping fiscal metrics credible, market sentiment is likely to remain constructive.

Do you completely rule out the possibility of consumption-oriented stimulus in the Budget?

A broad, consumption-oriented stimulus cannot be completely ruled out, but it is unlikely to be aggressive or front-loaded. The current policy backdrop favours fiscal prudence, especially with growth holding up and inflation largely under control. Rather than large direct spending measures, any support for consumption is more likely to be targeted and indirect, aimed at easing pressure on specific segments without materially stretching the fiscal balance.

Possible measures could include selective tax rationalisation, tweaks in duties, or targeted incentives for lower-income and middle-income groups where marginal propensity to consume is higher. Such steps would help support demand without altering the overall fiscal stance.

The emphasis is expected to remain on structural growth drivers rather than short-term stimulus. In that sense, the Budget may lean more toward nudging consumption gradually rather than delivering a headline-grabbing boost.

Do you strongly believe that job creation and income growth are essential to spur demand, and that interest rate cuts and GST reductions alone may not be sufficient?

Job creation and income growth are central to sustaining demand over the medium term, and policy tools like interest rate cuts or GST reductions can only play a supporting role. Lower borrowing costs and tax relief may improve affordability at the margin, but they do not replace the impact of steady employment and rising wages on consumption behaviour. Households tend to increase discretionary spending only when income visibility improves and job security feels stable.

In the current environment, uneven income growth across segments has led to pockets of strong consumption alongside areas of softness. A durable demand recovery will require broader employment generation, particularly in manufacturing, services and MSMEs. Without that, the impact of monetary easing or indirect tax tweaks is likely to be limited and short-lived. Structural measures that expand the employment base and raise real incomes are therefore essential for translating macro stability into sustained consumption-led growth.

Do you think India could end up with earnings growth of less than 10% in FY26?

A sub-10% earnings growth outcome for FY26 cannot be ruled out, particularly if global uncertainties persist and margin pressures remain in select sectors. After a strong post-pandemic rebound, earnings growth is naturally normalising and becoming more dependent on underlying demand rather than operating leverage. Export-oriented segments may face headwinds from tariff pressures and slower global growth, which could moderate overall profit expansion.

However, such an outcome would reflect normalisation rather than deterioration. Domestic-facing sectors like banking, infrastructure, capital goods and manufacturing continue to show healthy momentum and could provide stability to aggregate earnings. Even if growth moderates below 10%, it would still represent a resilient earnings cycle supported by structural domestic drivers rather than cyclical excess.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Union Budget must reassure markets on growth support without sacrificing fiscal discipline, says INVasset’s Anirudh Garg

Market expectations from the Union Budget are centred on continuity rather than surprise, according to Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at INVasset PMS. The key requirement, he said in an interview with Moneycontrol, is reassurance that growth support will continue without compromising fiscal discipline.

He believes sustained capital expenditure—particularly in infrastructure, manufacturing, and the energy transition—remains the most important driver of market sentiment, as it directly enhances earnings visibility and encourages private investment.

Garg also noted that a sub-10 percent earnings growth outcome for FY26 cannot be ruled out, especially if global uncertainties persist and margin pressures remain in select sectors. However, even if growth moderates below 10 percent, it would still reflect a resilient earnings cycle, supported by structural domestic drivers rather than cyclical excesses.

Is the India–EU deal still attractive at a time when India is facing tariff and heightened geopolitical concerns?

The India–EU trade deal remains attractive even amid tariff pressures and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. In fact, the current global environment arguably increases its strategic value. With supply chains being reshaped and protectionist tendencies rising in parts of the world, a deeper trade partnership with the EU offers India diversified market access and reduced dependence on a few trading blocs. The agreement is expected to ease tariff barriers across several key export categories, improving competitiveness for Indian manufacturers and service providers.

Beyond tariffs, the deal also provides regulatory alignment, clearer trade rules and long-term visibility, which are especially valuable during periods of geopolitical stress. While short-term disruptions and negotiations may create noise, the structural benefits of stable access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets remain intact. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the India–EU deal continues to be a strategically sound and economically relevant pillar for India’s trade ambitions.

Do you expect significant investment inflows into India following the India–EU deal?

Meaningful investment inflows are likely over time, but they are unlikely to be immediate or front-loaded. The India–EU deal primarily improves long-term visibility by reducing tariff uncertainty and aligning standards, which is a key prerequisite for cross-border capital commitments. For European companies, clarity on market access and regulatory stability makes India more attractive as a manufacturing base and as a gateway to other emerging markets.

That said, investment decisions tend to follow execution rather than announcements. Capital inflows will depend on how quickly the agreement translates into on-ground ease of doing business, faster approvals and sector-specific incentives.

Manufacturing, clean energy, pharmaceuticals and technology services are likely to see the earliest interest. Over the medium term, the deal could support a steady rise in foreign direct investment rather than a sudden surge, anchoring India more firmly into global supply chains at a time when diversification away from concentrated geographies is a priority.

What are your key expectations from the Union Budget that could help market sentiment?

Market expectations from the Union Budget remain centred on continuity rather than surprise. The key requirement is reassurance that growth support will continue without compromising fiscal discipline. Sustained capital expenditure, particularly in infrastructure, manufacturing and energy transition, remains the most important sentiment driver, as it directly supports earnings visibility and encourages private investment.

Beyond spending, clarity on tax stability and incremental reforms to improve ease of doing business could further strengthen confidence. Measures that simplify compliance, support MSMEs and enhance manufacturing competitiveness would be viewed positively.

The Budget does not need to be overtly expansionary to lift markets; consistency, predictability and a clear medium-term roadmap are far more important. If the Budget reinforces the capex-led growth strategy while keeping fiscal metrics credible, market sentiment is likely to remain constructive.

Do you completely rule out the possibility of consumption-oriented stimulus in the Budget?

A broad, consumption-oriented stimulus cannot be completely ruled out, but it is unlikely to be aggressive or front-loaded. The current policy backdrop favours fiscal prudence, especially with growth holding up and inflation largely under control. Rather than large direct spending measures, any support for consumption is more likely to be targeted and indirect, aimed at easing pressure on specific segments without materially stretching the fiscal balance.

Possible measures could include selective tax rationalisation, tweaks in duties, or targeted incentives for lower-income and middle-income groups where marginal propensity to consume is higher. Such steps would help support demand without altering the overall fiscal stance.

The emphasis is expected to remain on structural growth drivers rather than short-term stimulus. In that sense, the Budget may lean more toward nudging consumption gradually rather than delivering a headline-grabbing boost.

Do you strongly believe that job creation and income growth are essential to spur demand, and that interest rate cuts and GST reductions alone may not be sufficient?

Job creation and income growth are central to sustaining demand over the medium term, and policy tools like interest rate cuts or GST reductions can only play a supporting role. Lower borrowing costs and tax relief may improve affordability at the margin, but they do not replace the impact of steady employment and rising wages on consumption behaviour. Households tend to increase discretionary spending only when income visibility improves and job security feels stable.

In the current environment, uneven income growth across segments has led to pockets of strong consumption alongside areas of softness. A durable demand recovery will require broader employment generation, particularly in manufacturing, services and MSMEs. Without that, the impact of monetary easing or indirect tax tweaks is likely to be limited and short-lived. Structural measures that expand the employment base and raise real incomes are therefore essential for translating macro stability into sustained consumption-led growth.

Do you think India could end up with earnings growth of less than 10% in FY26?

A sub-10% earnings growth outcome for FY26 cannot be ruled out, particularly if global uncertainties persist and margin pressures remain in select sectors. After a strong post-pandemic rebound, earnings growth is naturally normalising and becoming more dependent on underlying demand rather than operating leverage. Export-oriented segments may face headwinds from tariff pressures and slower global growth, which could moderate overall profit expansion.

However, such an outcome would reflect normalisation rather than deterioration. Domestic-facing sectors like banking, infrastructure, capital goods and manufacturing continue to show healthy momentum and could provide stability to aggregate earnings. Even if growth moderates below 10%, it would still represent a resilient earnings cycle supported by structural domestic drivers rather than cyclical excess.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

3 out of 8 years NIFTY MIDCAP 150 has given negative returns in January.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	21,579.42	21,675.18	21,814.07	21,440.53	21,344.77	21,205.88	21,110.12
Fibonacci	21,530.17	21,585.55	21,675.18	21,440.53	21,350.90	21,295.52	21,205.88
Camarilla	21,505.16	21,526.67	21,548.18	21,440.53	21,462.14	21,440.63	21,419.12

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