NIFTY Midcap 100

Nifty continues to face hurdle at 25,900-26,000, Nifty support placed at 25,700–25,600, India VIX remains at elevated levels ahead of Union Budget

* Nifty continues to face hurdle at 25,900-26,000
* Nifty support placed at 25,700–25,600
* India VIX remains at elevated levels ahead of Union Budget

shorts/business/technical-view-nifty-needs-to-clear-25-900-26-000-hurdle-to-enter-bullish-momentum-rangebound-trade-likely-until-then

* Nifty continues to face hurdle at 25,900-26,000
* Nifty support placed at 25,700–25,600
* India VIX remains at elevated levels ahead of Union Budget

The Nifty 50 failed to attract follow-through buying interest and closed lower with above-average volumes on January 13. The index also could not hold above the 50-day EMA (near 25,900), which remains the immediate hurdle. However, it negated the lower high–lower low structure of the previous five consecutive sessions and defended the 100-day EMA for the third straight day, which is a positive sign. Buying interest continued at lower levels for another session, although some profit booking was seen at higher levels.

On the hourly chart, the index entered the momentum zone by rising above the midline of the Bollinger Bands. However, on the daily chart, it remained below the short- and medium-term moving averages, with the 10-day EMA falling below the 20-day EMA and the 20-day SMA.

Momentum indicators continued to signal caution, with the RSI at 41.16 sustaining below its signal line. The MACD maintained a bearish crossover, accompanied by a further decline in the histogram.

The Nifty 50 opened higher and nearly tested the 25,900 level but failed to sustain gains amid volatility. The index turned lower in the afternoon session and remained under pressure for the rest of the day, closing 58 points lower at 25,732. It formed a long bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart.

This market action indicates the presence of a crucial overhead resistance around the 25,900–26,000 zone. “However, buying has started to emerge near lower support levels. This is a positive signal and hints at the possibility of an eventual breakout in the short term,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

“The formation of a higher-bottom reversal pattern on the intraday (60-minute) chart indicates that the market could move up from here and surpass the hurdle of the 25,900–26,000 levels in the next few sessions. Immediate support is placed at the 25,600 level,” he added.

Weekly options data continued to suggest that the 26,000 level is expected to remain a crucial resistance, with support seen in the range of 25,700–25,600.

The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 26,500 strikes. Maximum Call writing was seen at the 26,000, 25,800, and 25,900 strikes. Meanwhile, the 25,000 strike held the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,700 and 25,500 strikes, with maximum Put writing at the 25,000, 25,700, and 25,600 strikes.

<strong>Bank Nifty</strong>

The Bank Nifty extended its upward journey for the second straight session and closed above the 20-day EMA and 20-day SMA (the midline of the Bollinger Bands). However, it formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart due to profit booking at higher levels. The index also sustained well above the rising support trendline and the 50-day EMA, which is positive.

The banking index climbed above the resistance zone of 59,700 but failed to sustain those levels. It erased 189 points from the day’s high before closing 128 points, or 0.22 percent, higher at 59,579. The index also negated the lower low of the previous five consecutive sessions.

Momentum indicators are yet to align fully with the improving trend and continue to show mixed signals. The RSI rose to 53.53 but remained below the reference line, while the MACD stayed below the signal line with a further fall in the histogram.

“The 20-day SMA is currently acting as a strong support zone. Immediate support is placed at 59,300, with resistance at 59,800, while positional support lies at 59,000. If the index sustains above the 20-day SMA for the next 2–3 sessions, a move towards 60,200 can be expected,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

Meanwhile, India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, remained at elevated levels despite correcting 1.5 percent to close at 11.20. It continues to signal caution for bulls. The VIX is expected to rise further to the 12–13 range, especially ahead of the Union Budget, experts said.

<em>Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.</em>

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Technical View: Nifty needs to clear 25,900–26,000 hurdle to enter bullish momentum; rangebound trade likely until then

The Nifty 50 failed to attract follow-through buying interest and closed lower with above-average volumes on January 13. The index also could not hold above the 50-day EMA (near 25,900), which remains the immediate hurdle. However, it negated the lower high–lower low structure of the previous five consecutive sessions and defended the 100-day EMA for the third straight day, which is a positive sign. Buying interest continued at lower levels for another session, although some profit booking was seen at higher levels.

On the hourly chart, the index entered the momentum zone by rising above the midline of the Bollinger Bands. However, on the daily chart, it remained below the short- and medium-term moving averages, with the 10-day EMA falling below the 20-day EMA and the 20-day SMA.

Momentum indicators continued to signal caution, with the RSI at 41.16 sustaining below its signal line. The MACD maintained a bearish crossover, accompanied by a further decline in the histogram.

The Nifty 50 opened higher and nearly tested the 25,900 level but failed to sustain gains amid volatility. The index turned lower in the afternoon session and remained under pressure for the rest of the day, closing 58 points lower at 25,732. It formed a long bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart.

This market action indicates the presence of a crucial overhead resistance around the 25,900–26,000 zone. “However, buying has started to emerge near lower support levels. This is a positive signal and hints at the possibility of an eventual breakout in the short term,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

“The formation of a higher-bottom reversal pattern on the intraday (60-minute) chart indicates that the market could move up from here and surpass the hurdle of the 25,900–26,000 levels in the next few sessions. Immediate support is placed at the 25,600 level,” he added.

Weekly options data continued to suggest that the 26,000 level is expected to remain a crucial resistance, with support seen in the range of 25,700–25,600.

The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 26,500 strikes. Maximum Call writing was seen at the 26,000, 25,800, and 25,900 strikes. Meanwhile, the 25,000 strike held the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,700 and 25,500 strikes, with maximum Put writing at the 25,000, 25,700, and 25,600 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty extended its upward journey for the second straight session and closed above the 20-day EMA and 20-day SMA (the midline of the Bollinger Bands). However, it formed a bearish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart due to profit booking at higher levels. The index also sustained well above the rising support trendline and the 50-day EMA, which is positive.

The banking index climbed above the resistance zone of 59,700 but failed to sustain those levels. It erased 189 points from the day’s high before closing 128 points, or 0.22 percent, higher at 59,579. The index also negated the lower low of the previous five consecutive sessions.

Momentum indicators are yet to align fully with the improving trend and continue to show mixed signals. The RSI rose to 53.53 but remained below the reference line, while the MACD stayed below the signal line with a further fall in the histogram.

“The 20-day SMA is currently acting as a strong support zone. Immediate support is placed at 59,300, with resistance at 59,800, while positional support lies at 59,000. If the index sustains above the 20-day SMA for the next 2–3 sessions, a move towards 60,200 can be expected,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

Meanwhile, India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, remained at elevated levels despite correcting 1.5 percent to close at 11.20. It continues to signal caution for bulls. The VIX is expected to rise further to the 12–13 range, especially ahead of the Union Budget, experts said.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex and Nifty fell ahead of Union Budget 2026, mirroring past cautious trends, Pre-Budget rallies may focus on infrastructure, defense, and rural sectors., Experts recommend cautious investing, aligning portfolios with long-term growth themes.

* Sensex and Nifty fell ahead of Union Budget 2026, mirroring past cautious trends
* Pre-Budget rallies may focus on infrastructure, defense, and rural sectors.
* Experts recommend cautious investing, aligning portfolios with long-term growth themes.

Ahead of Union Budget 2026, Indian markets show cautious optimism with selective pre-Budget positioning, especially in infrastructure, defence, renewables, and rural-focused sectors. Broad-based rallies are unlikely; volatility and consolidation may persist.

shorts/business/budget-2026-will-markets-see-pre-budget-rally-don-t-expect-broad-based-buying-say-analysts

* Sensex and Nifty fell ahead of Union Budget 2026, mirroring past cautious trends
* Pre-Budget rallies may focus on infrastructure, defense, and rural sectors.
* Experts recommend cautious investing, aligning portfolios with long-term growth themes.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be presenting Union Budget 2026 on February 1. Investors are looking forward to a rally ahead of the Budget presentation, though markets remain in red at present.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/SENSEX-4.html">Sensex</a> dropped more than 250 points (0.3 percent) to close at 83,627.69 on January 13. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html">Nifty 50</a> fell around 58 points (0.22 percent) to end the session at 25,732.30.
<h3><strong>How did markets react ahead of the previous Budget?</strong></h3>
Markets remained more or less flat with no major surprises ahead of Budget 2025. After closing 2024 at 23,644.80, Nifty 50 hit the month's high at 23,689.50 on January 9, 2025, marking only a marginal increase from December 31, 2024 closing level. Overall, the index ended January 2025 with slight losses before Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented Union Budget 2025 on February 1.

Sensex too more or less mirrored Nifty’s performance during the month, falling 0.8 percent in January 2025 before the Budget presentation.

"Historical trends indicate that the Indian market typically underperforms in January preceding a budget, with the Nifty falling in four of the last five years due to profit-booking and policy uncertainty. Current indicators reinforce this cautious outlook,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart.
<h3><strong>Will markets rally ahead of Budget 2026?</strong></h3>
The pre-Budget periods are characterised by higher levels of market volatility and not the usual straight-line move to the higher side, as the market tries to price in its views on fiscal spending, said Siddharth Maurya, Founder &amp; Managing Director, Vibhavangal Anukulakara.

Swapnil Aggarwal, Director at VSRK Capital, also said that investors can expect some degree of pre-Budget positioning in the markets, though it is likely to be selective rather than a broad-based rally.

However, Maurya said there could be bouts of buying in selected sectors, identified with the focus area of the Government, such as infrastructure, manufacturing, and consumption. He added that one cannot expect a broad-based move purely on expectation. "The market shall have to await the Budget measures to ensure that concerns on growth are dealt with and fiscal discipline is seen," he concluded.

Aggarwal meanwhile said that the sentiment typically improves on expectations of growth-supportive measures, especially around capital expenditure, infrastructure push, and incentives for emerging sectors as the Union Budget approaches.
<h3><strong>Cautious optimism:</strong></h3>
"Recent market action suggests cautious optimism, with participants closely tracking macro signals, global cues, and fiscal discipline. While volatility may persist in the near term, incremental buying could emerge in pockets where policy continuity and earnings visibility are expected," the analyst said.

That said, markets are unlikely to price in aggressive outcomes ahead of the Budget, and any upside may remain measured until there is clarity on actual announcements, Aggarwal said, adding that the near-term trend points towards consolidation with intermittent rallies, as investors balance Budget optimism with valuation concerns and global uncertainties.
<h3><strong>Which sectors will likely benefit?</strong></h3>
Ahead of the Union Budget 2026, the market focus is sharpening on sectors likely to benefit from a government push for economic growth, particularly through capital expenditure and rural revival, said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart.

<strong>Infrastructire and defence:</strong> According to Meena, investors should look closely at infrastructure and defence, where expectations for sustained high allocation remain strong to support 'Make in India' initiatives. In the infrastructure space, companies like <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/infrastructure/hginfraengineering/HIE">HG Infra Engineering</a> and Larsen &amp; Toubro (<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/infrastructure-general/larsentoubro/LT">L&amp;T</a>) are top picks due to strong order books, while the defence sector offers opportunities in Bharat Electronics (<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aerospacedefence/bharatelectronics/BE03">BEL</a>), Hindustan Aeronautics (<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aerospacedefence/hindustanaeronautics/HAL">HAL</a>), and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/ship-building/mazagondockshipbuilders/MDS01">Mazagon Dock</a> as they benefit from localization policies.

<strong>Renewables and critical minerals:</strong> Additionally, renewables and critical minerals are gaining traction, with stocks like National Aluminium Company (<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aluminium/nationalaluminiumcompany/NAC">NALCO</a>), <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/power-generationdistribution/thetatapowercompany/TPC">Tata Power</a> and GMDC in focus due to the global shift toward green energy and energy security.

<strong>Consumption and agriculture:</strong> The consumption and agriculture sectors are critical themes this year, driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus to address rural distress, Meena said. “The market anticipates measures such as enhanced subsidies or tax relief to boost disposable income, which would directly benefit the rural economy. Consequently, agricultural inputs are a key area to watch, with stocks like UPL, Dhanuka Agritech, Fertilisers And Chemicals Travancore (<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/fertilisers/fertiliserschemicalstravancore/FCT">FACT</a>) and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/fertilisers/coromandelinternational/CI45">Coromandel International</a> positioned to gain from farm support schemes,” according to the analyst. This rural recovery narrative extends to broader consumption plays - FMCG giants like Hindustan Unilever (<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/personal-care/hindustanunilever/HU">HUL</a>) and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/diversified/itc/ITC">ITC</a> are defensive bets, while Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/auto-carsjeeps/mahindramahindra/MM">M&amp;M</a>) serves as a strong proxy for both auto and rural demand.

<strong>Banks:</strong> Financials, particularly State Bank of India (<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-public-sector/statebankindia/SBI">SBI</a>) and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/banks-private-sector/hdfcbank/HDF01">HDFC Bank</a>, remain foundational holdings to play the overall credit growth story, according to Meena.

"While a sharp, broad-based rally ahead of the Budget appears unlikely, selective upside cannot be ruled out in budget-sensitive sectors. Any pre-Budget rally is likely to be narrow, stock-specific and driven by expectations around capex, defence spending and rural support rather than a sustained market-wide move," the analyst concluded.
<h3><strong>What should investors do?</strong></h3>
Narender Agarwal, Founder &amp; CEO at Wealth1, also noted that any rally ahead of the Budget is likely to be measured rather than euphoric, and investors should avoid aggressive positioning purely on expectations, focusing instead on fundamentally strong businesses.

“For investors, the Budget should be seen as an opportunity to align portfolios with India’s long-term growth themes rather than focus solely on short-term volatility. A growth-oriented Budget, backed by strong economic momentum, can support broader market participation and set the stage for sustained returns beyond the Budget event,” said Tushar Badjate, Director of Badjate Stock &amp; Shares.

<em>Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.</em>

Budget 2026: Will markets see a pre-Budget rally? Don't expect broad-based buying, say analysts

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be presenting Union Budget 2026 on February 1. Investors are looking forward to a rally ahead of the Budget presentation, though markets remain in red at present.

Sensex dropped more than 250 points (0.3 percent) to close at 83,627.69 on January 13. Nifty 50 fell around 58 points (0.22 percent) to end the session at 25,732.30.
How did markets react ahead of the previous Budget?
Markets remained more or less flat with no major surprises ahead of Budget 2025. After closing 2024 at 23,644.80, Nifty 50 hit the month's high at 23,689.50 on January 9, 2025, marking only a marginal increase from December 31, 2024 closing level. Overall, the index ended January 2025 with slight losses before Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented Union Budget 2025 on February 1.

Sensex too more or less mirrored Nifty’s performance during the month, falling 0.8 percent in January 2025 before the Budget presentation.

&quot;Historical trends indicate that the Indian market typically underperforms in January preceding a budget, with the Nifty falling in four of the last five years due to profit-booking and policy uncertainty. Current indicators reinforce this cautious outlook,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart.
Will markets rally ahead of Budget 2026?
The pre-Budget periods are characterised by higher levels of market volatility and not the usual straight-line move to the higher side, as the market tries to price in its views on fiscal spending, said Siddharth Maurya, Founder &amp;amp; Managing Director, Vibhavangal Anukulakara.

Swapnil Aggarwal, Director at VSRK Capital, also said that investors can expect some degree of pre-Budget positioning in the markets, though it is likely to be selective rather than a broad-based rally.

However, Maurya said there could be bouts of buying in selected sectors, identified with the focus area of the Government, such as infrastructure, manufacturing, and consumption. He added that one cannot expect a broad-based move purely on expectation. &quot;The market shall have to await the Budget measures to ensure that concerns on growth are dealt with and fiscal discipline is seen,&quot; he concluded.

Aggarwal meanwhile said that the sentiment typically improves on expectations of growth-supportive measures, especially around capital expenditure, infrastructure push, and incentives for emerging sectors as the Union Budget approaches.
Cautious optimism:
&quot;Recent market action suggests cautious optimism, with participants closely tracking macro signals, global cues, and fiscal discipline. While volatility may persist in the near term, incremental buying could emerge in pockets where policy continuity and earnings visibility are expected,&quot; the analyst said.

That said, markets are unlikely to price in aggressive outcomes ahead of the Budget, and any upside may remain measured until there is clarity on actual announcements, Aggarwal said, adding that the near-term trend points towards consolidation with intermittent rallies, as investors balance Budget optimism with valuation concerns and global uncertainties.
Which sectors will likely benefit?
Ahead of the Union Budget 2026, the market focus is sharpening on sectors likely to benefit from a government push for economic growth, particularly through capital expenditure and rural revival, said Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart.

Infrastructire and defence: According to Meena, investors should look closely at infrastructure and defence, where expectations for sustained high allocation remain strong to support 'Make in India' initiatives. In the infrastructure space, companies like HG Infra Engineering and Larsen &amp;amp; Toubro (L&amp;amp;T) are top picks due to strong order books, while the defence sector offers opportunities in Bharat Electronics (BEL), Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), and Mazagon Dock as they benefit from localization policies.

Renewables and critical minerals: Additionally, renewables and critical minerals are gaining traction, with stocks like National Aluminium Company (NALCO), Tata Power and GMDC in focus due to the global shift toward green energy and energy security.

Consumption and agriculture: The consumption and agriculture sectors are critical themes this year, driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus to address rural distress, Meena said. “The market anticipates measures such as enhanced subsidies or tax relief to boost disposable income, which would directly benefit the rural economy. Consequently, agricultural inputs are a key area to watch, with stocks like UPL, Dhanuka Agritech, Fertilisers And Chemicals Travancore (FACT) and Coromandel International positioned to gain from farm support schemes,” according to the analyst. This rural recovery narrative extends to broader consumption plays - FMCG giants like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and ITC are defensive bets, while Mahindra &amp;amp; Mahindra (M&amp;amp;M) serves as a strong proxy for both auto and rural demand.

Banks: Financials, particularly State Bank of India (SBI) and HDFC Bank, remain foundational holdings to play the overall credit growth story, according to Meena.

&quot;While a sharp, broad-based rally ahead of the Budget appears unlikely, selective upside cannot be ruled out in budget-sensitive sectors. Any pre-Budget rally is likely to be narrow, stock-specific and driven by expectations around capex, defence spending and rural support rather than a sustained market-wide move,&quot; the analyst concluded.
What should investors do?
Narender Agarwal, Founder &amp;amp; CEO at Wealth1, also noted that any rally ahead of the Budget is likely to be measured rather than euphoric, and investors should avoid aggressive positioning purely on expectations, focusing instead on fundamentally strong businesses.

“For investors, the Budget should be seen as an opportunity to align portfolios with India’s long-term growth themes rather than focus solely on short-term volatility. A growth-oriented Budget, backed by strong economic momentum, can support broader market participation and set the stage for sustained returns beyond the Budget event,” said Tushar Badjate, Director of Badjate Stock &amp;amp; Shares.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Nifty closed under 25,750 due to selling in auto, pharma, and realty stocks., Sensex fell 250 points; mixed performance seen in midcap and smallcap indices, Over 150 stocks hit 52-week lows including Trent, ITC, and Godrej Properties

* Nifty closed under 25,750 due to selling in auto, pharma, and realty stocks.
* Sensex fell 250 points; mixed performance seen in midcap and smallcap indices
* Over 150 stocks hit 52-week lows including Trent, ITC, and Godrej Properties

Indian equity markets ended lower on January 12, with Nifty slipping below 25,750 due to selling in auto, consumer durables, pharma, and realty stocks. Sensex fell 250 points; mixed sector performance and over 150 stocks hit 52-week lows.

shorts/business/taking-stock-nifty-below-25-750-sensex-down-250-pts-pharma-realty-down-psu-banks-gain

* Nifty closed under 25,750 due to selling in auto, pharma, and realty stocks.
* Sensex fell 250 points; mixed performance seen in midcap and smallcap indices
* Over 150 stocks hit 52-week lows including Trent, ITC, and Godrej Properties

In another volatile session, the Indian equity market ended lower on January 12, with the Nifty slipping below 25,750 amid selling pressure in auto, consumer durables, pharma and realty stocks.

Amid positive global cues, domestic indices opened on a strong note, extending the previous session’s sharp recovery. However, the benchmarks failed to sustain early gains and remained largely rangebound through the day, eventually closing with modest losses.

At close, the Sensex was down 250.48 points or 0.30 percent at 83,627.69, and the Nifty was down 57.95 points or 0.22 percent at 25,732.30.

Mixed performance was seen among the broader indices, with the BSE Midcap index declining 0.2 percent, while the Smallcap index rose 0.5 percent.

Also Read: <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/mutual-funds/midcap-smallcap-inflows-in-2025-hit-record-high-despite-scheme-delivers-muted-returns-13769363.html">MidCap, SmallCap inflows in 2025 hit record high despite scheme delivers muted returns</a>

Trent, L&amp;T, Dr Reddy's Labs, Reliance Industries and Interglobe Aviation were among major losers on the Nifty, while gainers were ONGC, Tech Mahindra, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Hindalco Industries.

On the sectoral front, IT, media, PSU Bank, metal ended in the green, while FMCG, capital goods, consumer durables, pharma, realty fell between 0.3-0.5 percent.

Also Read - <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/telecom/vodafone-idea-agr-relief-puts-indus-towers-back-in-dividend-frame-13770304.html">Vodafone Idea AGR relief puts Indus Towers back in dividend frame</a>

In stocks, Sical Logistics shares jumped 5% on LoA from South Eastern Coalfields, L&amp;T shares shed 3% despite order win GTPL Hathway share price shed 8% on better Q3 earnings, VA Tech shares added 1% on large order win from BPCL.

More than 220 stocks hit 52-week low including Dixon Technologies, Cohance Life, Trent, Godrej Properties, BASF, Whirlpool, ITC, Happiest Minds, IRCTC, Cera Sanitaryware, SignatureGlobal India among others. <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/market-stats/52-week-low-bse/?indexName=BSE%20500&amp;id=12">Click to View More</a>

<strong>Outlook for January 14</strong>

<strong>Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking</strong>

Markets remained volatile on the weekly expiry day and ended marginally lower amid mixed cues. After an initial uptick, the Nifty 50 drifted lower for most of the session, though a rebound in the final hour trimmed some losses and helped it settle at 25,732.30. Sectoral trends were mixed, keeping participants engaged, with IT and metal stocks among the gainers, while realty and pharma remained subdued and closed in the red. The midcap and smallcap segments witnessed selective participation, with smallcaps showing modest resilience even as overall market breadth stayed moderate.

Market action reflects the interplay between earnings-related reactions and global uncertainty. Early optimism was supported by encouraging IT earnings and signs of progress in India–U.S. trade discussions, which lifted sentiment in the first half. However, the lack of follow-through and fresh selling in heavyweights across sectors capped the upside. Ongoing geopolitical and global trade concerns also continued to weigh on risk appetite, keeping trading largely stock-specific.

We maintain a cautious view on the Nifty and suggest continuing with a sell-on-rise approach until the index decisively reclaims the 26,000 level. A decisive breach of medium-term 100-day EMA, placed near 25,600, could accelerate the decline toward the 25,400 zone. Given the earnings season and fluctuating global cues, it is prudent to stay light and wait for clearer confirmation of the next directional move. Participants should focus on stock-specific opportunities and prefer a hedged approach amid the prevailing choppiness.

<strong>Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities</strong>

After witnessing an excellent upside recovery from the lows on Monday, Nifty slipped into weakness from the highs on Tuesday and closed the day's lower amidst recovery note. After opening on an upside gap, Nifty failed to sustain the highs and slipped into weakness in the early-mid part of the session. Smart recovery has emerged from near the lows of 25600 and Nifty finally closed off the lows. The opening upside gap has been filled completely.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with long lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates presence of crucial overhead resistance around 25900-26000 levels. But the buying has started to emerge from near the lower supports. This is positive signal and hints at the possibility of eventual breakout in the short term.

The underlying short-term trend of Nifty remains positive. The formation of higher bottom reversal pattern on intraday chart (60 min) indicates that the market could move up from here and surpass the hurdle of 25900-26000 levels in the next few sessions. Immediate support is placed at 25600 levels.

<strong>Disclaimer</strong>: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Taking Stock: Nifty below 25,750, Sensex down 250 pts; pharma, realty down, PSU Banks gain

In another volatile session, the Indian equity market ended lower on January 12, with the Nifty slipping below 25,750 amid selling pressure in auto, consumer durables, pharma and realty stocks.

Amid positive global cues, domestic indices opened on a strong note, extending the previous session’s sharp recovery. However, the benchmarks failed to sustain early gains and remained largely rangebound through the day, eventually closing with modest losses.

At close, the Sensex was down 250.48 points or 0.30 percent at 83,627.69, and the Nifty was down 57.95 points or 0.22 percent at 25,732.30.

Mixed performance was seen among the broader indices, with the BSE Midcap index declining 0.2 percent, while the Smallcap index rose 0.5 percent.

Also Read: MidCap, SmallCap inflows in 2025 hit record high despite scheme delivers muted returns

Trent, L&amp;amp;T, Dr Reddy's Labs, Reliance Industries and Interglobe Aviation were among major losers on the Nifty, while gainers were ONGC, Tech Mahindra, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Hindalco Industries.

On the sectoral front, IT, media, PSU Bank, metal ended in the green, while FMCG, capital goods, consumer durables, pharma, realty fell between 0.3-0.5 percent.

Also Read - Vodafone Idea AGR relief puts Indus Towers back in dividend frame

In stocks, Sical Logistics shares jumped 5% on LoA from South Eastern Coalfields, L&amp;amp;T shares shed 3% despite order win GTPL Hathway share price shed 8% on better Q3 earnings, VA Tech shares added 1% on large order win from BPCL.

More than 220 stocks hit 52-week low including Dixon Technologies, Cohance Life, Trent, Godrej Properties, BASF, Whirlpool, ITC, Happiest Minds, IRCTC, Cera Sanitaryware, SignatureGlobal India among others. Click to View More

Outlook for January 14

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking

Markets remained volatile on the weekly expiry day and ended marginally lower amid mixed cues. After an initial uptick, the Nifty 50 drifted lower for most of the session, though a rebound in the final hour trimmed some losses and helped it settle at 25,732.30. Sectoral trends were mixed, keeping participants engaged, with IT and metal stocks among the gainers, while realty and pharma remained subdued and closed in the red. The midcap and smallcap segments witnessed selective participation, with smallcaps showing modest resilience even as overall market breadth stayed moderate.

Market action reflects the interplay between earnings-related reactions and global uncertainty. Early optimism was supported by encouraging IT earnings and signs of progress in India–U.S. trade discussions, which lifted sentiment in the first half. However, the lack of follow-through and fresh selling in heavyweights across sectors capped the upside. Ongoing geopolitical and global trade concerns also continued to weigh on risk appetite, keeping trading largely stock-specific.

We maintain a cautious view on the Nifty and suggest continuing with a sell-on-rise approach until the index decisively reclaims the 26,000 level. A decisive breach of medium-term 100-day EMA, placed near 25,600, could accelerate the decline toward the 25,400 zone. Given the earnings season and fluctuating global cues, it is prudent to stay light and wait for clearer confirmation of the next directional move. Participants should focus on stock-specific opportunities and prefer a hedged approach amid the prevailing choppiness.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

After witnessing an excellent upside recovery from the lows on Monday, Nifty slipped into weakness from the highs on Tuesday and closed the day's lower amidst recovery note. After opening on an upside gap, Nifty failed to sustain the highs and slipped into weakness in the early-mid part of the session. Smart recovery has emerged from near the lows of 25600 and Nifty finally closed off the lows. The opening upside gap has been filled completely.

A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with long lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates presence of crucial overhead resistance around 25900-26000 levels. But the buying has started to emerge from near the lower supports. This is positive signal and hints at the possibility of eventual breakout in the short term.

The underlying short-term trend of Nifty remains positive. The formation of higher bottom reversal pattern on intraday chart (60 min) indicates that the market could move up from here and surpass the hurdle of 25900-26000 levels in the next few sessions. Immediate support is placed at 25600 levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decision.

Nifty Reclaims 25,700 Amid Expiry Day Volatility| Banks Back In Green| Closing Bell Live

Trump announces 25 percent tariff on countries trading with Iran, Indian stock markets fell as Sensex dropped 545 points and Nifty 157 points, India faces up to 75% tariff on some exports to US due to new rules

* Trump announces 25 percent tariff on countries trading with Iran
* Indian stock markets fell as Sensex dropped 545 points and Nifty 157 points
* India faces up to 75% tariff on some exports to US due to new rules

US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, impacting Indian markets already facing high US tariffs. Analysts say the immediate effect is sentiment-driven, with limited direct impact due to modest India-Iran trade.

shorts/business/will-trump-s-25-tariff-on-countries-doing-business-with-iran-be-a-negative-for-indian-markets-here-s-what-analysts-say

* Trump announces 25 percent tariff on countries trading with Iran
* Indian stock markets fell as Sensex dropped 545 points and Nifty 157 points
* India faces up to 75% tariff on some exports to US due to new rules

US President Donald Trump has announced that any country engaging in business with Iran will face 25 percent tariff on any trade with US. Analysts have suggested what this can mean for Indian stock markets.

Indian benchmark indices <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/SENSEX-4.html">Sensex</a> and Nifty have seen some pressure last year amid Trump’s tariff flipflops. The almost muted annual returns in 2025 came as Trump increased tariffs on Indian exports to US to 50 percent, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

Amid Iran's biggest anti-government protests in years, Trump took to Truth Social to announce his new round of tariffs. "Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America," he wrote.

"This Order is final and conclusive," Trump said without providing any further detail. No official documentation from the White House on the new round of tariffs has yet been released.

<iframe class="truthsocial-embed" style="max-width: 100%; border: 0;" src="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115884319075881590/embed" width="600" height="150" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><script src="https://truthsocial.com/embed.js" async="async"></script>

Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producing group, has been heavily sanctioned by Washington for years. It exports much of its oil to China, with Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and India among its other top trading partners.

Sensex dropped more than 545 points (0.65 percent) to 83,328, while <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html">Nifty 50</a> fell 157 points (0.61 percent) to 25,632.90, as seen at 1 pm on Tuesday.
<h3><strong>Fresh pressure on India?</strong></h3>
Trump’s decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on countries trading with Iran adds fresh pressure on India, which is already facing tariffs of up to 50 percent on several exports to the US. Together, this creates a potential tariff burden of as much as 75 percent on certain Indian goods.

India–Iran trade stood at $1.68 billion in FY25, and mainly comprised exports of rice, food products, medicines, tea, and spices to Iran, while imports include chemicals and dry fruits, said Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza. He noted that while the trade size is modest, the concern is that the US tariff applies broadly to countries doing business with Iran, not just to Iran related goods.

“A key strategic risk is the Chabahar Port project in Iran, which is vital for India’s access to Central Asia. While the project currently has a US sanctions waiver valid until April 2026, there is uncertainty over whether it will remain protected,” the analyst further said.
<h3><strong>'A key macro overhang for Indian markets, but...'</strong></h3>
The renewed threat of a 25 percent tariff by former US President Donald Trump has resurfaced as a key macro overhang for Indian markets, but its actual economic impact needs to be viewed with perspective rather than panic, said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS.

He noted that while headlines suggest a broad-based disruption, India's direct export exposure to the US remains concentrated in select segments such as textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods and certain engineering products.
<h3><strong>Impact on Rupee?</strong></h3>
A potential 25 percent tariff threat on exports to the US is already being felt as it adds to trade tensions, which affect rupee weakness, especially in sectors that are more sensitive to exports, said Siddharth Maurya, Founder &amp; Managing Director at Vibhavangal Anukulakara. “Although the Indian economy is more domestically oriented, stock markets related to exports can suffer short-term turbulence in stock markets due to the potential growth impact from tariffs. Investors will watch to what level of diversification can happen to avoid the negative impact due to tariffs,” he said.

“For markets, the immediate reaction has been driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. Export-linked stocks may witness near-term volatility, but India’s broader market construct today is far more domestically anchored than in previous tariff cycles. Consumption, financials, infrastructure and services continue to be driven by internal demand rather than US trade flows,” Dasani said, adding that this phase will let investors distinguish headline risk from earnings reality.

In the near term, the impact should be manageable due to low Iran trade exposure and ongoing India–US negotiations, and over the medium term, a negotiated settlement remains the most likely outcome, which would limit market damage and reduce long term risks, said Tiwari from Bonanza.

Follow all <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-gift-nifty-indicates-a-firm-start-us-asian-markets-gain-liveblog-13769563.html">LIVE updates</a> from the stock markets here.

<em>Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.</em>

Will Trump's 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran be a negative for Indian markets? Here's what analysts say

US President Donald Trump has announced that any country engaging in business with Iran will face 25 percent tariff on any trade with US. Analysts have suggested what this can mean for Indian stock markets.

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty have seen some pressure last year amid Trump’s tariff flipflops. The almost muted annual returns in 2025 came as Trump increased tariffs on Indian exports to US to 50 percent, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.

Amid Iran's biggest anti-government protests in years, Trump took to Truth Social to announce his new round of tariffs. &quot;Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,&quot; he wrote.

&quot;This Order is final and conclusive,&quot; Trump said without providing any further detail. No official documentation from the White House on the new round of tariffs has yet been released.



Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producing group, has been heavily sanctioned by Washington for years. It exports much of its oil to China, with Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and India among its other top trading partners.

Sensex dropped more than 545 points (0.65 percent) to 83,328, while Nifty 50 fell 157 points (0.61 percent) to 25,632.90, as seen at 1 pm on Tuesday.
Fresh pressure on India?
Trump’s decision to impose a 25 percent tariff on countries trading with Iran adds fresh pressure on India, which is already facing tariffs of up to 50 percent on several exports to the US. Together, this creates a potential tariff burden of as much as 75 percent on certain Indian goods.

India–Iran trade stood at $1.68 billion in FY25, and mainly comprised exports of rice, food products, medicines, tea, and spices to Iran, while imports include chemicals and dry fruits, said Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza. He noted that while the trade size is modest, the concern is that the US tariff applies broadly to countries doing business with Iran, not just to Iran related goods.

“A key strategic risk is the Chabahar Port project in Iran, which is vital for India’s access to Central Asia. While the project currently has a US sanctions waiver valid until April 2026, there is uncertainty over whether it will remain protected,” the analyst further said.
'A key macro overhang for Indian markets, but...'
The renewed threat of a 25 percent tariff by former US President Donald Trump has resurfaced as a key macro overhang for Indian markets, but its actual economic impact needs to be viewed with perspective rather than panic, said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS.

He noted that while headlines suggest a broad-based disruption, India's direct export exposure to the US remains concentrated in select segments such as textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods and certain engineering products.
Impact on Rupee?
A potential 25 percent tariff threat on exports to the US is already being felt as it adds to trade tensions, which affect rupee weakness, especially in sectors that are more sensitive to exports, said Siddharth Maurya, Founder &amp;amp; Managing Director at Vibhavangal Anukulakara. “Although the Indian economy is more domestically oriented, stock markets related to exports can suffer short-term turbulence in stock markets due to the potential growth impact from tariffs. Investors will watch to what level of diversification can happen to avoid the negative impact due to tariffs,” he said.

“For markets, the immediate reaction has been driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. Export-linked stocks may witness near-term volatility, but India’s broader market construct today is far more domestically anchored than in previous tariff cycles. Consumption, financials, infrastructure and services continue to be driven by internal demand rather than US trade flows,” Dasani said, adding that this phase will let investors distinguish headline risk from earnings reality.

In the near term, the impact should be manageable due to low Iran trade exposure and ongoing India–US negotiations, and over the medium term, a negotiated settlement remains the most likely outcome, which would limit market damage and reduce long term risks, said Tiwari from Bonanza.

Follow all LIVE updates from the stock markets here.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

<b>10</b> out of <b>18</b> years <b>NIFTY Midcap 100</b> has given negative returns in <b>January</b>.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	60,098.87	60,480.63	61,116.12	59,463.38	59,081.62	58,446.13	58,064.37
Fibonacci	59,851.97	60,092.04	60,480.63	59,463.38	59,074.79	58,834.72	58,446.13
Camarilla	59,810.35	59,903.60	59,996.84	59,463.38	59,623.85	59,530.60	59,437.36

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY Midcap 100

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