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Live: Nifty slips below 25,650 amid broad-based selloff; IT continues freefall | Closing Bell

Sensex and Nifty fell sharply, ending a three-day rally amid weak global cues., Metal stocks fell, sector index dropped 2% due to global price decline., Markets cautious ahead of RBI policy decision; volatility remains elevated.

* Sensex and Nifty fell sharply, ending a three-day rally amid weak global cues.
* Metal stocks fell, sector index dropped 2% due to global price decline.
* Markets cautious ahead of RBI policy decision; volatility remains elevated.

Sensex and Nifty fell sharply, ending a three-day rally due to weak global cues, profit booking, and selling in metal stocks. Mid-cap and small-cap indices also dropped. Markets remain cautious ahead of the RBI policy decision, with volatility expected to persist.

shorts/business/sensex-down-400-pts-nifty-below-25-650-weak-global-cues-among-key-factors-behind-market-decline

* Sensex and Nifty fell sharply, ending a three-day rally amid weak global cues.
* Metal stocks fell, sector index dropped 2% due to global price decline.
* Markets cautious ahead of RBI policy decision; volatility remains elevated.

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid weak global cues and selling pressure in metal shares.

At around 2:15 pm, the Sensex dropped 600.50 points or 0.72 percent to 83,217.19, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,595.75, down 180.25 points or 0.7 percent.

The sell-off was broad-based, with mid-cap and small-cap stocks also coming under pressure. The Nifty midcap100 index fell 1 percent, while the Nifty smallcap100 index declined 1.5 percent.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/ironsteel/hindalcoindustries/HI" target="_blank">Hindalco Industries</a>, InterGlobe Aviation and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles were among the major laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 4 percent, while <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/personal-care/hindustanunilever/HU" target="_blank">Hindustan Unilever</a> and State Bank of India were the top gainers, rising up to 2 percent. Market breadth was negative as bout 1368 shares advanced, 1997 shares declined and 159 shares unchanged.
<h3>Key factors behind market decline</h3>
1) Selling in metal shares: Metal stocks led the losses, with the sectoral index sliding nearly 2 percent, tracking a fall in global metal prices as stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The metal index had gained about 6 percent over the past three sessions.

2) Profit booking: Markets witnessed profit-booking after recent gains triggered by optimism over India-US trade deal. Most sectoral indices were trading in the red, barring IT and PSU banks. The IT index edged higher after a sharp fall of nearly 6 percent in the previous session amid concerns over AI-led disruption in the software industry after Anthropic launched its AI automation tools.

"There are a few near-term market trends that are significant. The Nifty appears to be in a consolidation phase without big moves at the index level. However, there are big changes within the Nifty stocks with big declines in IT stocks consequent to the IT sell-off in the US spreading to India, too," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
<h3><a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/stock-market-live-updates-sensex-nifty-stare-at-muted-start-as-tech-sell-off-continues-to-drag-wall-street-even-as-us-trade-deal-lifts-mood-liveblog-13812077.html" target="_blank">Stock Market LIVE Updates</a></h3>
3) Weak global cues: In Asian markets, South Korea’s Kospi plunged over 3 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were also trading lower. US markets ended mostly in the red on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq Composite tumbling 1.51 percent and the S&amp;P 500 falling 0.51 percent, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.53 percent. Wall Street futures were also trading lower.

4) Thin FII buying: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were marginal net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 29.79 crore on Wednesday. The inflows were significantly lower compared to Tuesday’s buying of Rs 5,236.28 crore.

5) RBI MPC jitters: Markets were cautious ahead of the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy meeting. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee, headed by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, began its deliberations on Wednesday. The policy decision will be announced on Friday morning. According to an SBI study, the central bank is expected to maintain status quo on interest rates.

"The market direction is likely to depend on RBI's upcoming policy announcement and commentary as well as the details on the newly unveiled trade deal with the US," Bajaj Broking said in a note.

6) India VIX in green: India Vix, which measures near-term volatility and reflects investor fear, was trading higher at 12.28. A rise in the volatility index indicates increased nervousness among market participants and often leads to sharp intraday swings.

7) Expiry day moves: Markets were also volatile as Thursday marked the Sensex derivatives expiry. Expiry days typically see heightened volatility due to the unwinding and rollover of positions, leading to sharp movements in benchmark indices.

The Sensex and Nifty have gained about 3.8 percent over the past three sessions, supported by optimism over the trade agreement with the US that reduced tariffs on Indian goods.
<h3>Technical outlook </h3>
The index formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart; however, selling pressure may emerge at higher levels. India VIX remains above 12, indicating elevated volatility in the near term. The short-term trend remains bearish and will turn bullish only on a sustained move above 25,300. The 9-day SMA is placed at 25,185. - FundsIndia Equity Research Desk

"Our view is that, on the upside, the key resistance levels are around 25,800/83900 or the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If the index manages to trade above these levels, it could potentially rise to 25,900–26,000/84200-84500. On the downside, if the market falls below 25,600/83100, it could decline to the 25,500–25,350/82800-82500 range. Currently, the market exhibits a non-directional character; therefore, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders," added Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

A financial journalist with over 10 years of experience, specialising in tracking stock market movements and fundamental developments that impact investors and the broader economy. A keen observer of global financial markets, I regularly engage with leading market voices to write stories. At Moneycontrol, I focus on decoding market trends, policy shifts and economic changes, driven by a constant passion to learn, analyse, and share knowledge with my readers.

Bear attack after three days: Sensex down 600 pts, Nifty below 25,600; 7 key factors behind market decline

Sensex news today: Bear attack after three days: Sensex down 600 pts, Nifty below 25,600; 7 key factors behind market decline

The benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid weak global cues and selling pressure in metal shares.

At around 2:15 pm, the Sensex dropped 600.50 points or 0.72 percent to 83,217.19, while the broader Nifty declined to 25,595.75, down 180.25 points or 0.7 percent.

The sell-off was broad-based, with mid-cap and small-cap stocks also coming under pressure. The Nifty midcap100 index fell 1 percent, while the Nifty smallcap100 index declined 1.5 percent.

Hindalco Industries, InterGlobe Aviation and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles were among the major laggards in the Nifty50 pack, declining up to 4 percent, while Hindustan Unilever and State Bank of India were the top gainers, rising up to 2 percent. Market breadth was negative as bout 1368 shares advanced, 1997 shares declined and 159 shares unchanged.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Selling in metal shares: Metal stocks led the losses, with the sectoral index sliding nearly 2 percent, tracking a fall in global metal prices as stronger dollar makes commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The metal index had gained about 6 percent over the past three sessions.

2) Profit booking: Markets witnessed profit-booking after recent gains triggered by optimism over India-US trade deal. Most sectoral indices were trading in the red, barring IT and PSU banks. The IT index edged higher after a sharp fall of nearly 6 percent in the previous session amid concerns over AI-led disruption in the software industry after Anthropic launched its AI automation tools.

&quot;There are a few near-term market trends that are significant. The Nifty appears to be in a consolidation phase without big moves at the index level. However, there are big changes within the Nifty stocks with big declines in IT stocks consequent to the IT sell-off in the US spreading to India, too,&quot; said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
Stock Market LIVE Updates
3) Weak global cues: In Asian markets, South Korea’s Kospi plunged over 3 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were also trading lower. US markets ended mostly in the red on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq Composite tumbling 1.51 percent and the S&amp;amp;P 500 falling 0.51 percent, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.53 percent. Wall Street futures were also trading lower.

4) Thin FII buying: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were marginal net buyers, purchasing equities worth Rs 29.79 crore on Wednesday. The inflows were significantly lower compared to Tuesday’s buying of Rs 5,236.28 crore.

5) RBI MPC jitters: Markets were cautious ahead of the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy meeting. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee, headed by RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, began its deliberations on Wednesday. The policy decision will be announced on Friday morning. According to an SBI study, the central bank is expected to maintain status quo on interest rates.

&quot;The market direction is likely to depend on RBI's upcoming policy announcement and commentary as well as the details on the newly unveiled trade deal with the US,&quot; Bajaj Broking said in a note.

6) India VIX in green: India Vix, which measures near-term volatility and reflects investor fear, was trading higher at 12.28. A rise in the volatility index indicates increased nervousness among market participants and often leads to sharp intraday swings.

7) Expiry day moves: Markets were also volatile as Thursday marked the Sensex derivatives expiry. Expiry days typically see heightened volatility due to the unwinding and rollover of positions, leading to sharp movements in benchmark indices.

The Sensex and Nifty have gained about 3.8 percent over the past three sessions, supported by optimism over the trade agreement with the US that reduced tariffs on Indian goods.
Technical outlook 
The index formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart; however, selling pressure may emerge at higher levels. India VIX remains above 12, indicating elevated volatility in the near term. The short-term trend remains bearish and will turn bullish only on a sustained move above 25,300. The 9-day SMA is placed at 25,185. - FundsIndia Equity Research Desk

&quot;Our view is that, on the upside, the key resistance levels are around 25,800/83900 or the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If the index manages to trade above these levels, it could potentially rise to 25,900–26,000/84200-84500. On the downside, if the market falls below 25,600/83100, it could decline to the 25,500–25,350/82800-82500 range. Currently, the market exhibits a non-directional character; therefore, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders,&quot; added Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Can Nifty Power Ahead For Fourth Day Despite Anthropic-Led Tech Jitters? | Opening Bell Live

Trade deal brings a good shot in the arm for Rupee, RBI rate cut without effective transmission may not be helpful at this juncture, Market currently in a bear phase following a four-year strong bull run

* Trade deal brings a good shot in the arm for Rupee
* RBI rate cut without effective transmission may not be helpful at this juncture
* Market currently in a bear phase following a four-year strong bull run

shorts/business/daily-voice-us-trade-deal-lifts-mood-but-this-md-says-earnings-are-the-real-trigger

* Trade deal brings a good shot in the arm for Rupee
* RBI rate cut without effective transmission may not be helpful at this juncture
* Market currently in a bear phase following a four-year strong bull run

Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director at Ladderup Asset Managers, said the recent US trade deal has improved sentiment, but warned it is unlikely to be enough, by itself, to spark a meaningful market rally.

A sustained upmove, and a return of meaningful foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows, will depend on clearer signs that corporate earnings are turning and that the broader macro environment is settling, he said.

Nath also argued the market has slipped into a bear phase after a strong four-year bull run, suggesting the process of stabilisation could take time.

On the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming monetary policy decision, he said a rate cut may not do much at this stage unless it is accompanied by effective transmission into lending rates.

Do you advise adding export-driven sectors—which were not favourites for a long time—to portfolios following the India–US trade deal?

After months of uncertainty, during which the US imposed tariffs of around 50% on India, affecting major export-driven sectors such as textiles, apparel, and chemicals, a reciprocal tariff of 18% does provide some relief. While the markets have welcomed the move by moving up substantially on Monday, we must understand that it is just a return to the status quo and had to happen sooner or later. Both US and India need each other not only for trade purposes but also for geopolitical and strategic considerations.

In the short term, all such companies that were affected by the deadlock shall now benefit, and therefore, this should reflect positively in their stock prices. In the long run, the companies have to compete for market share with global competitors as India was one of the last ones with whom US has done a bilateral deal. While one may look at adding some of the stocks to the portfolio, it is important to have realistic expectations, as the news is already built in the prices to some extent.

From the macro perspective, the trade deal should benefit the exchange rate as the uncertainty comes to an end. It also helps with the reduction of trade deficit to some extent. Let us see the fine print of the deal as India is also being forced to import certain goods from United States and therefore, we have to see how the trade deal will pan out in the next few years.

With the India–EU deal last month and the India–US deal now, do you expect these developments to further accelerate India’s role as one of the world’s major growth engines?

India already has trade deals with almost all the large nations, so the India–US or Indo-EU deals by themselves are not something that will have a dramatic impact on the trading volumes. Most countries today are moving toward bilateral arrangements to protect their interests, and India, being one of the world’s largest economies, is naturally doing the same.

The trade deals help in removing the administrative and duty bottlenecks. But ultimately the export competitiveness of our products needs to be maintained in relation to the competing nations for us to substantially benefit from these deals. If Indian companies are competitive relative to other countries, exports will grow; otherwise, agreements will remain largely on paper.

Trade deals between the governments can facilitate trade, but they do not decide where the buyer’s source from. For example, in the last 10 years, the textile sector has been dominated by exporters in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam etc. and the Indian exporters have seen reduction in market share. The government therefore has to bring in more policies and ease of doing business so that exporters from India can increase their market share of global trade.

In addition to these favourable factors, do you think one more RBI rate cut could be the sweetener that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are looking for?

A rate cut without transmission may not help at this juncture. While the US-India deadlock over the trade deal and a depreciating INR did contribute to the FII outflows, the period has also coincided with flattish earnings growth as well as high valuations of India stocks relative to other countries.

Therefore, a rate cut alone does not suffice. Any foreign institutional investor would look at the bigger picture where the GDP growth is robust, demand is strong, earning growth trajectory of companies is positive, the USD-INR is stable and not volatile, and the policy environment is conductive.

Another RBI rate cut would help a bit by easing liquidity and lifting sentiment, but meaningful FII inflows only happen when investors can clearly see earnings starting to improve and the overall macro picture becoming more stable.

Do you feel this is shaping up to be a “Diwali celebration” phase for India? Do you expect any significant FDI announcements in the coming months?

I think it is still too early to celebrate because of a single event. Of course, the announcement of the trade deal has brought some cheer to the markets after the STT (Securities Transaction Tax) shock that jolted the markets after the budget speech.

The market sentiment right now is negative for multiple reasons. Earning upgrades are few and the earning growth at the aggregate level is still subdued. The valuations therefore still look expensive. Trading volumes have reduced as the retail investors, especially the newer breed that came in during the last five years, are losing patience and reducing their equity exposure.

The gold and silver rally has shifted some of the speculators from Equity markets. Higher STT is likely to impact high frequency traders reducing volumes further. So, in the next few months the markets may continue to trade sideways.

However, there are a lot of positives too. More money in the hands of government employees due to the pay hikes, more money in the hands of retail investors because of income tax and GST cuts, focus on manufacturing improving the job market, government’s capital expenditure remains strong, the government’s path towards fiscal consolidation improves the macro environment and many others.

Has the deal helped the market form a strong base and positioned it for a sharp rally in the coming days, or will it wait for earnings to improve?

The trade deal has lifted sentiment a bit, but on its own it is not enough to trigger a big rally. We are in bear phase right now after a 4-year strong bull run. And it may take time before things settle down. The bull run that we saw in the past was supported by sharp growth in corporate profits accompanied by huge growth in trading volumes.

Right now, corporate profit growth has largely flattened over the last five to six quarters, and this quarter does not look very different. On the retail side, many new investors who enter the market do not have the capacity to hold or patience if they do not see returns for a year or two. That is already showing up in lower trading volumes in recent months.

On top of that, a lot of speculative money has moved to commodities like gold and silver, pulling activity away from equities. When you add weak sentiment and FII outflows to this, it explains why markets are struggling to move meaningfully. So, while the trade deal helps sentiment in the short term, a sustained rally will only come when earnings and fundamentals improve.

Is the deal a major positive for the currency, which had depreciated to around 92 in January?

In fact, this is one of the biggest positives from the trade deal in the immediate term. Indian Rupee has been under tremendous pressure over the last 6 months and has been one of the worst performing currencies in the world in the last year. Repeated RBI intervention has failed to arrest the slide. The trade deal brings a good shot in the arm.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: US trade deal lifts mood, but this MD says earnings are the real trigger

Raghvendra Nath, Managing Director at Ladderup Asset Managers, said the recent US trade deal has improved sentiment, but warned it is unlikely to be enough, by itself, to spark a meaningful market rally.

A sustained upmove, and a return of meaningful foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows, will depend on clearer signs that corporate earnings are turning and that the broader macro environment is settling, he said.

Nath also argued the market has slipped into a bear phase after a strong four-year bull run, suggesting the process of stabilisation could take time.

On the Reserve Bank of India’s upcoming monetary policy decision, he said a rate cut may not do much at this stage unless it is accompanied by effective transmission into lending rates.

Do you advise adding export-driven sectors—which were not favourites for a long time—to portfolios following the India–US trade deal?

After months of uncertainty, during which the US imposed tariffs of around 50% on India, affecting major export-driven sectors such as textiles, apparel, and chemicals, a reciprocal tariff of 18% does provide some relief. While the markets have welcomed the move by moving up substantially on Monday, we must understand that it is just a return to the status quo and had to happen sooner or later. Both US and India need each other not only for trade purposes but also for geopolitical and strategic considerations.

In the short term, all such companies that were affected by the deadlock shall now benefit, and therefore, this should reflect positively in their stock prices. In the long run, the companies have to compete for market share with global competitors as India was one of the last ones with whom US has done a bilateral deal. While one may look at adding some of the stocks to the portfolio, it is important to have realistic expectations, as the news is already built in the prices to some extent.

From the macro perspective, the trade deal should benefit the exchange rate as the uncertainty comes to an end. It also helps with the reduction of trade deficit to some extent. Let us see the fine print of the deal as India is also being forced to import certain goods from United States and therefore, we have to see how the trade deal will pan out in the next few years.

With the India–EU deal last month and the India–US deal now, do you expect these developments to further accelerate India’s role as one of the world’s major growth engines?

India already has trade deals with almost all the large nations, so the India–US or Indo-EU deals by themselves are not something that will have a dramatic impact on the trading volumes. Most countries today are moving toward bilateral arrangements to protect their interests, and India, being one of the world’s largest economies, is naturally doing the same.

The trade deals help in removing the administrative and duty bottlenecks. But ultimately the export competitiveness of our products needs to be maintained in relation to the competing nations for us to substantially benefit from these deals. If Indian companies are competitive relative to other countries, exports will grow; otherwise, agreements will remain largely on paper.

Trade deals between the governments can facilitate trade, but they do not decide where the buyer’s source from. For example, in the last 10 years, the textile sector has been dominated by exporters in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam etc. and the Indian exporters have seen reduction in market share. The government therefore has to bring in more policies and ease of doing business so that exporters from India can increase their market share of global trade.

In addition to these favourable factors, do you think one more RBI rate cut could be the sweetener that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are looking for?

A rate cut without transmission may not help at this juncture. While the US-India deadlock over the trade deal and a depreciating INR did contribute to the FII outflows, the period has also coincided with flattish earnings growth as well as high valuations of India stocks relative to other countries.

Therefore, a rate cut alone does not suffice. Any foreign institutional investor would look at the bigger picture where the GDP growth is robust, demand is strong, earning growth trajectory of companies is positive, the USD-INR is stable and not volatile, and the policy environment is conductive.

Another RBI rate cut would help a bit by easing liquidity and lifting sentiment, but meaningful FII inflows only happen when investors can clearly see earnings starting to improve and the overall macro picture becoming more stable.

Do you feel this is shaping up to be a “Diwali celebration” phase for India? Do you expect any significant FDI announcements in the coming months?

I think it is still too early to celebrate because of a single event. Of course, the announcement of the trade deal has brought some cheer to the markets after the STT (Securities Transaction Tax) shock that jolted the markets after the budget speech.

The market sentiment right now is negative for multiple reasons. Earning upgrades are few and the earning growth at the aggregate level is still subdued. The valuations therefore still look expensive. Trading volumes have reduced as the retail investors, especially the newer breed that came in during the last five years, are losing patience and reducing their equity exposure.

The gold and silver rally has shifted some of the speculators from Equity markets. Higher STT is likely to impact high frequency traders reducing volumes further. So, in the next few months the markets may continue to trade sideways.

However, there are a lot of positives too. More money in the hands of government employees due to the pay hikes, more money in the hands of retail investors because of income tax and GST cuts, focus on manufacturing improving the job market, government’s capital expenditure remains strong, the government’s path towards fiscal consolidation improves the macro environment and many others.

Has the deal helped the market form a strong base and positioned it for a sharp rally in the coming days, or will it wait for earnings to improve?

The trade deal has lifted sentiment a bit, but on its own it is not enough to trigger a big rally. We are in bear phase right now after a 4-year strong bull run. And it may take time before things settle down. The bull run that we saw in the past was supported by sharp growth in corporate profits accompanied by huge growth in trading volumes.

Right now, corporate profit growth has largely flattened over the last five to six quarters, and this quarter does not look very different. On the retail side, many new investors who enter the market do not have the capacity to hold or patience if they do not see returns for a year or two. That is already showing up in lower trading volumes in recent months.

On top of that, a lot of speculative money has moved to commodities like gold and silver, pulling activity away from equities. When you add weak sentiment and FII outflows to this, it explains why markets are struggling to move meaningfully. So, while the trade deal helps sentiment in the short term, a sustained rally will only come when earnings and fundamentals improve.

Is the deal a major positive for the currency, which had depreciated to around 92 in January?

In fact, this is one of the biggest positives from the trade deal in the immediate term. Indian Rupee has been under tremendous pressure over the last 6 months and has been one of the worst performing currencies in the world in the last year. Repeated RBI intervention has failed to arrest the slide. The trade deal brings a good shot in the arm.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Experts advise buy-on-dips strategy, Nifty to move toward 25,800, 26,000 soon; support is placed at 25,500, Bank Nifty needs to surpass and sustain above 60,400–60,500 for sharp upmove

* Experts advise buy-on-dips strategy
* Nifty to move toward 25,800, 26,000 soon; support is placed at 25,500
* Bank Nifty needs to surpass and sustain above 60,400–60,500 for sharp upmove

shorts/business/trading-plan-can-upward-journey-extend-in-nifty-50-bank-nifty-for-a-fourth-consecutive-session

* Experts advise buy-on-dips strategy
* Nifty to move toward 25,800, 26,000 soon; support is placed at 25,500
* Bank Nifty needs to surpass and sustain above 60,400–60,500 for sharp upmove

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty managed to hold above Tuesday’s low levels, with further improvement in momentum indicators and a consistent fall in the VIX. As long as these indices hold above the midline of the Bollinger Bands (20 DMA), the trend remains in favour of the bulls, with a continuation of the buy-on-dips strategy, experts said. The Nifty is expected to move toward 25,800 and then 26,000 soon, while 25,500 is expected to be a crucial support. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to surpass and sustain above the 60,400–60,500 zone for a sharp upmove toward 61,000. Until then, range-bound trading may be seen, with support at 59,800.

On February 4, the Nifty 50 rose 48 points (0.2 percent) to 25,776, while the Bank Nifty jumped 197 points (0.33 percent) to 60,238. Market breadth remained healthy, with a total of 2,012 shares rising against 911 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Wednesday, the Nifty once again found support near its 100-day EMA, reinforcing this level as a reliable short-term demand zone. The index later witnessed a steady intraday pullback and is currently trading above its key short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating underlying structural strength. However, momentum indicators are signalling a period of sideways consolidation, suggesting that the index may continue to oscillate within a defined band before attempting a directional breakout.

Going ahead, the 100-day EMA zone of 25,580–25,550 is expected to act as immediate support, and holding above this band will be crucial for sustaining any bullish sentiment. On the upside, the region between 25,850–25,880 will serve as a critical resistance zone. A sustained move above 25,880 could open the gates for a further upside towards 26,000, followed by 26,200 in the near term, setting the stage for another potential attempt at reclaiming higher levels.

Key Resistance: 25,850, 25,880, 26,000

Key Support: 25,580, 25,550

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at around 25,760–25,860, with a stop-loss of 25,640, targeting 26,080.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Equity Technical &amp; Derivative Research at Centrum Broking

The Nifty index extended its upward momentum for the third consecutive session and closed above its immediate support at the 100-DMA, placed near 25,640. However, the index encountered strong resistance around the 50-DMA at 25,818, which continues to act as a key hurdle. A decisive breakout above this level could open the door for an upside move towards the 26,200 zone in the near term.

On the momentum indicators front, the MACD has given a fresh buy crossover, while the RSI has rebounded from the oversold territory and moved above the 50 mark, indicating improving underlying strength. Meanwhile, the India VIX cooled off towards the 12.50 level. A further decline in volatility would be supportive of sustained positive sentiment.

Considering the overall technical setup, a breakout above 25,900 in Nifty Futures may trigger short covering, potentially leading to a rally towards 26,200 levels. Therefore, initiating long positions in Nifty Futures on a decisive breakout above 25,900 is advisable.

(Spot levels)
Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200

Key Support: 25,650, 25,560

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 25,900, with a stop-loss of 25,750, targeting 26,200.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained largely sideways but managed to sustain above the 200-hour SMA, confirming a positive short-term trend. Additionally, the index closed above the 50 EMA for the second consecutive session, while comfortably holding above the 200 DMA.

The daily RSI has formed a bullish crossover, indicating improving momentum. Following the tariff-relief-led rally on Tuesday, market sentiment appears to have shifted from “sell on rises” to “buy on dips.” On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,500, while on the upside, resistance is seen in the 25,875–26,000 zone.

Key Resistance: 25,875, 26,000

Key Support: 25,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty 25,800 CE of February 10 expiry at Rs 145, with a stop-loss of Rs 119, targeting Rs 200.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark Bank Nifty registered a fresh all-time high on Tuesday, reflecting strong upward momentum in the sector. However, the index soon encountered sharp profit booking. Despite this pullback, Bank Nifty continues to trade comfortably above its key moving averages, highlighting underlying strength in the broader trend. At the same time, momentum indicators are signalling a phase of sideways movement, suggesting consolidation before the next directional move.

Looking ahead, the zone of 59,900–59,800 will act as a crucial support area, where buyers are likely to step in if the index dips. On the upside, the region between 60,500–60,600 remains the immediate resistance zone. A convincing breakout above this band could revive bullish momentum, paving the way for the index to resume its upward trajectory.

Key Resistance: 60,500, 60,600

Key Support: 59,900, 59,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at around 60,250–60,400, with a stop-loss of 59,800, targeting 61,400.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Equity Technical &amp; Derivative Research at Centrum Broking

Bank Nifty continued its upward momentum for the third consecutive session, in line with the Nifty, and successfully defended the 60,000 mark on a closing basis despite intraday volatility. The index has scaled to a fresh record high this week, reflecting strong underlying strength. It continues to trade comfortably above all its short-term as well as long-term moving averages, reinforcing the positive trend.

On the momentum front, the RSI has negated the earlier bearish formation of lower tops and lower bottoms and has moved above the 55 level, which further supports the bullish setup.

Overall, the structure of Bank Nifty appears relatively stronger compared to the Nifty, and a buy-on-dips strategy remains advisable. Considering the current technical setup, traders may look to initiate long positions in Bank Nifty Futures in the 60,300–60,400 range, with a stop-loss placed below 59,850. A pullback-driven rally towards fresh record highs around 61,300 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

(Spot levels)
Key Resistance: 60,600, 61,300

Key Support: 59,850, 59,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the range of 60,300–60,400, with a stop-loss of 59,850, targeting 61,300.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Bank Nifty registered a downward consolidation breakout on Tuesday, indicating a potential resumption of directional momentum. During the latest trading session, the index traded within a range of 59,891 to 60,389, reflecting controlled price action after the breakout. The near-term sentiment remains constructive, as the index has managed to close above its 20-day moving average, suggesting underlying strength.

The RSI continues to hold in a bullish crossover, signalling improving momentum. As long as Bank Nifty sustains above the immediate support zone, the index is likely to maintain a positive bias with gradual upside potential. However, a decisive breach below 59,500 may weaken the ongoing momentum and could trigger short-term profit booking.

Key Resistance: 60,500, 61,000

Key Support: 59,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty 60,500 CE of February expiry at Rs 630, with a stop-loss of Rs 500, targeting Rs 780.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Trading Plan: Can upward journey extend in Nifty 50, Bank Nifty for a fourth consecutive session?

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty managed to hold above Tuesday’s low levels, with further improvement in momentum indicators and a consistent fall in the VIX. As long as these indices hold above the midline of the Bollinger Bands (20 DMA), the trend remains in favour of the bulls, with a continuation of the buy-on-dips strategy, experts said. The Nifty is expected to move toward 25,800 and then 26,000 soon, while 25,500 is expected to be a crucial support. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to surpass and sustain above the 60,400–60,500 zone for a sharp upmove toward 61,000. Until then, range-bound trading may be seen, with support at 59,800.

On February 4, the Nifty 50 rose 48 points (0.2 percent) to 25,776, while the Bank Nifty jumped 197 points (0.33 percent) to 60,238. Market breadth remained healthy, with a total of 2,012 shares rising against 911 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Wednesday, the Nifty once again found support near its 100-day EMA, reinforcing this level as a reliable short-term demand zone. The index later witnessed a steady intraday pullback and is currently trading above its key short-term and long-term moving averages, indicating underlying structural strength. However, momentum indicators are signalling a period of sideways consolidation, suggesting that the index may continue to oscillate within a defined band before attempting a directional breakout.

Going ahead, the 100-day EMA zone of 25,580–25,550 is expected to act as immediate support, and holding above this band will be crucial for sustaining any bullish sentiment. On the upside, the region between 25,850–25,880 will serve as a critical resistance zone. A sustained move above 25,880 could open the gates for a further upside towards 26,000, followed by 26,200 in the near term, setting the stage for another potential attempt at reclaiming higher levels.

Key Resistance: 25,850, 25,880, 26,000

Key Support: 25,580, 25,550

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at around 25,760–25,860, with a stop-loss of 25,640, targeting 26,080.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Equity Technical &amp;amp; Derivative Research at Centrum Broking

The Nifty index extended its upward momentum for the third consecutive session and closed above its immediate support at the 100-DMA, placed near 25,640. However, the index encountered strong resistance around the 50-DMA at 25,818, which continues to act as a key hurdle. A decisive breakout above this level could open the door for an upside move towards the 26,200 zone in the near term.

On the momentum indicators front, the MACD has given a fresh buy crossover, while the RSI has rebounded from the oversold territory and moved above the 50 mark, indicating improving underlying strength. Meanwhile, the India VIX cooled off towards the 12.50 level. A further decline in volatility would be supportive of sustained positive sentiment.

Considering the overall technical setup, a breakout above 25,900 in Nifty Futures may trigger short covering, potentially leading to a rally towards 26,200 levels. Therefore, initiating long positions in Nifty Futures on a decisive breakout above 25,900 is advisable.

(Spot levels)
Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200

Key Support: 25,650, 25,560

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 25,900, with a stop-loss of 25,750, targeting 26,200.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty remained largely sideways but managed to sustain above the 200-hour SMA, confirming a positive short-term trend. Additionally, the index closed above the 50 EMA for the second consecutive session, while comfortably holding above the 200 DMA.

The daily RSI has formed a bullish crossover, indicating improving momentum. Following the tariff-relief-led rally on Tuesday, market sentiment appears to have shifted from “sell on rises” to “buy on dips.” On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,500, while on the upside, resistance is seen in the 25,875–26,000 zone.

Key Resistance: 25,875, 26,000

Key Support: 25,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty 25,800 CE of February 10 expiry at Rs 145, with a stop-loss of Rs 119, targeting Rs 200.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark Bank Nifty registered a fresh all-time high on Tuesday, reflecting strong upward momentum in the sector. However, the index soon encountered sharp profit booking. Despite this pullback, Bank Nifty continues to trade comfortably above its key moving averages, highlighting underlying strength in the broader trend. At the same time, momentum indicators are signalling a phase of sideways movement, suggesting consolidation before the next directional move.

Looking ahead, the zone of 59,900–59,800 will act as a crucial support area, where buyers are likely to step in if the index dips. On the upside, the region between 60,500–60,600 remains the immediate resistance zone. A convincing breakout above this band could revive bullish momentum, paving the way for the index to resume its upward trajectory.

Key Resistance: 60,500, 60,600

Key Support: 59,900, 59,800

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at around 60,250–60,400, with a stop-loss of 59,800, targeting 61,400.

Nilesh Jain, VP- Equity Technical &amp;amp; Derivative Research at Centrum Broking

Bank Nifty continued its upward momentum for the third consecutive session, in line with the Nifty, and successfully defended the 60,000 mark on a closing basis despite intraday volatility. The index has scaled to a fresh record high this week, reflecting strong underlying strength. It continues to trade comfortably above all its short-term as well as long-term moving averages, reinforcing the positive trend.

On the momentum front, the RSI has negated the earlier bearish formation of lower tops and lower bottoms and has moved above the 55 level, which further supports the bullish setup.

Overall, the structure of Bank Nifty appears relatively stronger compared to the Nifty, and a buy-on-dips strategy remains advisable. Considering the current technical setup, traders may look to initiate long positions in Bank Nifty Futures in the 60,300–60,400 range, with a stop-loss placed below 59,850. A pullback-driven rally towards fresh record highs around 61,300 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

(Spot levels)
Key Resistance: 60,600, 61,300

Key Support: 59,850, 59,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the range of 60,300–60,400, with a stop-loss of 59,850, targeting 61,300.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Bank Nifty registered a downward consolidation breakout on Tuesday, indicating a potential resumption of directional momentum. During the latest trading session, the index traded within a range of 59,891 to 60,389, reflecting controlled price action after the breakout. The near-term sentiment remains constructive, as the index has managed to close above its 20-day moving average, suggesting underlying strength.

The RSI continues to hold in a bullish crossover, signalling improving momentum. As long as Bank Nifty sustains above the immediate support zone, the index is likely to maintain a positive bias with gradual upside potential. However, a decisive breach below 59,500 may weaken the ongoing momentum and could trigger short-term profit booking.

Key Resistance: 60,500, 61,000

Key Support: 59,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty 60,500 CE of February expiry at Rs 630, with a stop-loss of Rs 500, targeting Rs 780.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

13 out of 18 years NIFTY Midcap 100 has given negative returns in February.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	60,037.28	60,390.97	61,012.43	59,415.82	59,062.13	58,440.67	58,086.98
Fibonacci	59,788.32	60,018.46	60,390.97	59,415.82	59,043.31	58,813.17	58,440.67
Camarilla	59,772.99	59,862.38	59,951.77	59,415.82	59,594.21	59,504.82	59,415.43

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