Nifty Microcap 250

Sensex and Nifty dropped over 1.5 percent amid US-Iran tensions., Crude oil prices surged, pressuring oil marketing companies., Rupee weakened and India VIX rose, signaling higher volatility.

* Sensex and Nifty dropped over 1.5 percent amid US-Iran tensions.
* Crude oil prices surged, pressuring oil marketing companies.
* Rupee weakened and India VIX rose, signaling higher volatility.

Sensex and Nifty fell sharply as failed US-Iran talks raised conflict fears, pushing crude prices higher. All major indices declined, oil stocks dropped, rupee weakened, and volatility rose, reversing last week’s gains amid global market uncertainty.

shorts/business/sensex-down-1-600-pts-nifty-below-23-600-surging-oil-prices-among-key-factors-behind-market-fall

The equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined sharply on Monday as the failure of US-Iran negotiations heightened concerns of a prolonged conflict and pushed crude oil prices higher.

At around 10:50 am, the Sensex fell 1,033.32 points or 1.33 percent to 76,518.44, while the broader Nifty declined to 23,740.35, down 310.25 points or 1.29 percent. Market breadth was negative as about 1071 shares advanced, 2579 shares declined and 136 shares unchanged.

All major Nifty sectoral indices were trading in the red. The broader Nifty smallcap100 and Nifty midcap100 indices slipped about 1.5 percent each.

Index heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank declined 2.7 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

Oil marketing companies were under pressure, with BPCL down 3.6 percent, HPCL falling 4.3 percent and Indian Oil declining 3 percent amid concerns over higher crude prices impacting margins.

Both benchmark indices had rallied around 6 percent last week, marking their strongest weekly gains in more than five years, supported by optimism around a US-Iran ceasefire.
Key factors behind market decline
1) Geopolitical concerns: The US and Iran failed to reach a peace agreement after 21-hour talks in Pakistan, raising doubts over the continuation of a two-week ceasefire.

&quot;The failure of US–Iran negotiations over the weekend has heightened concerns of a prolonged conflict, further intensified by reports of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports,&quot; Hariprasad K, Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, told PTI, adding that the development has triggered a risk-off sentiment across global markets.

2) Higher crude prices: Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, surged 7.33 percent to USD 102.2 per barrel. US President Donald Trump said the US Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and pushing oil prices higher.

&quot;With the failure of US-Iran peace talks and Trump’s declaration of a US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty and crude prices have spiked. Brent at around USD 103 is emerging as a threat to the economy and markets,&quot; V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, said.
Stock Market Live Updates
3) Weak global cues: Asian markets, including South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Shanghai’s SSE Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, were trading lower. Wall Street futures were also down up to 1 percent, indicating a weak opening for US markets.

4) Weak rupee: The rupee depreciated 49 paise to 93.32 against the US dollar, weighed down by higher crude prices and a firm American currency amid geopolitical uncertainty. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 93.30 against the US dollar and slipped further to 93.32, down 49 paise from its previous close.

5) India VIX rises: The volatility index, or India VIX, rose to 21.3 from 18.8 on Friday, indicating increased market uncertainty.

&quot;Sentiment has turned cautious again after last week’s recovery, and volatility may rise given the geopolitical uncertainty,&quot; Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said.
Technical Outlook
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments, said Nifty had entered last week with a target of 24,400, but sustained closes above key levels could open the possibility of an extension towards 24,900. He said volatility remains a key factor, though the recent decline in VIX below 19 had indicated some easing of panic-driven swings. He added that 23,693 remains a crucial level for sustaining upward momentum, while a breach could drag the index towards 23,465 or even 23,130.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Sensex crashes 1,000 pts, Nifty below 23,750: US-Iran talks failure among key factors behind market decline

US to blockade Strait of Hormuz | Crude prices back above $100 | Gift Nifty to see gap down opening

Samco Mutual Fund CIO Umeshkumar Mehta has warned that uncertainty continues to loom large, with the risk of earnings downgrades still not fully behind us. He warned that earnings growth is unlikely to normalise by the second quarter of FY27.

The full impact of raw material and oil price changes on sensitive sectors has not yet been fully reflected and is likely to be seen more clearly in the coming quarters, he told Moneycontrol in an interview.

According to Mehta, given the evolving situation and heightened uncertainty, the risk of further downgrades still remain.

Meanwhile, from a global perspective, he said that India appears less attractive to global investors due to the lack of pure AI-driven plays and the country’s positioning as a dividend and buyback way of creating value in IT companies.

Do you think the worst is now over following the announcement of two-week ceasefire? Also, do you expect normalcy to return to the Strait of Hormuz soon?

&quot;There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.&quot; This quote from Vladimir Lenin appropriately describes the current situation, where rapid developments are reshaping regional dynamics in a very short span. While a ceasefire was briefly agreed between the countries involved on Wednesday morning, the same ceasefire was violated the same evening underscoring the fragility and unpredictability of the situation.

Pre-war normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return soon. We may be entering a new phase where ships will have to pay a toll or take additional security measures for safe passage, which could increase shipping costs, disrupt trade flows, and impact global oil markets for prolonged periods. This uncertainty also raises concerns for oil-importing countries like India, as prolonged instability could exacerbate crude price volatility and inflationary pressures.

Overall, while a ceasefire provides temporary respite, the risk of further escalations remains high, and the Strait’s operations may remain constrained for the foreseeable future.

Given the easing of US–Iran tensions, do you see global investors’ stance on India changing in the near term?

While India’s valuation premium over other emerging markets has eased, current levels (around 19x TTM and 17x forward P/E for Nifty50) are broadly in line with historical averages, making valuations reasonable on a standalone basis. However, from a global perspective, India appears less attractive to global investors due to the lack of pure AI-driven plays and the country’s positioning as a dividend and buyback way of creating value in IT companies.

Additionally, foreign investors are facing losses from both market indices declining and rupee depreciation, as well as higher transaction costs following the recent STT (Securities Transaction Tax) hike, which could further dampen near-term inflows. Even with the easing of US–Iran tensions, the aforementioned factors suggest that any shift in global investor stance is likely to be gradual.

Many global investors are instead allocating capital to better-performing markets, remaining selective in India and focusing on sectors with strong growth potential and clear catalysts.

Do you believe oil prices will stabilise around $70 per barrel by next month?

I don't believe oil prices will stabilise around $70 per barrel by next month.

Are you bullish on the defence sector, given expectations of rising global spending?

Yes, we are bullish in the defence sector. In India, despite macro pressures from elevated crude prices, policy support through the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has accelerated capital acquisition proposals with a strong focus on domestic manufacturing. This reflects a strategic response to global uncertainty, emphasizing supply chain security, border preparedness, and military readiness.

The push for indigenisation reduces external dependency amid vulnerable global supply chains, strengthening long-term strategic autonomy. Coupled with increased budgetary allocations, faster procurement cycles, and policy backing, this is expected to drive strong order inflows and earnings visibility for domestic defence players.

Overall, while the ongoing Iran–Israel–US conflict introduces volatility, it simultaneously creates opportunities within India’s defence ecosystem, showing that periods of conflict can generate both risks and investible opportunities.

Are you taking a contra bet on the IT sector after the recent correction?

We currently have zero exposure to the IT services sector, as we don’t see broad-based momentum in this sector. Instead, we are selectively invested in companies with stronger growth and better positioning in the evolving AI landscape as identified by our models. Given the rapid pace of change, we prefer to stay cautious and deploy capital in sectors with clearer momentum rather than take a broad contra bet on IT.

Do you believe the impact of the West Asia crisis on the Indian economy has been overestimated? Are you confident the economy can grow at around 7 percent in the current fiscal year?

The impact of the West Asia crisis on India should not be underestimated, as about 70 percent of India’s oil imports and nearly 90 percent of its LPG imports (which account for ~60 percent of total LPG consumption) pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making the economy highly exposed to disruptions. Every $10 per barrel rise in crude oil prices widens the current account deficit by around US$18 billion (around 0.41 percent of GDP) and adds around 50 basis points to CPI inflation.

While inflation remains relatively low at 3.21 percent in February (up from 2.74 percent in January), providing some cushion, risks of imported inflation persist due to rising geopolitical tensions. The recent uptick in inflation also reflects early signs of pressure from global factors, particularly energy-linked costs.

That said, the RBI’s latest projections still estimate GDP growth at around 6.9 percent (i.e., around the 7 percent mark) for FY27, with gradual improvement across quarters. However, this outlook is subject to significant risks, including further escalation of the conflict, global market volatility, and other external shocks. Overall, while around 7 percent growth is achievable, the risks are clearly tilted to the downside, and the situation remains highly uncertain.

Do you think the risk of earnings downgrades is now behind us, and that earnings growth will normalise by Q2 FY27?

Given the current uncertainty we don’t believe the risk of earnings downgrades is behind us, nor do we expect earnings growth to normalize by Q2 FY27. The full impact of raw material and oil price changes on sensitive sectors has not yet been fully reflected and is likely to be seen more clearly in the coming quarters.

In this earnings season we would closely monitor management commentary from companies to better understand how the ongoing war is affecting their business and operations. Prior to this conflict, the outlook may have been more stable, but given the evolving situation and heightened uncertainty, the risk of further downgrades still remain.

Additionally, demand visibility across sectors is still weak, and companies may remain cautious in their guidance. Any recovery in earnings is likely to be gradual rather than sharp, and will depend on stability in commodity prices, supply chains, and the broader macro environment.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Don't expect earnings growth to normalise by Q2FY27, risk of further downgrades remain, says Samco's Umeshkumar Mehta

Sensex and Nifty likely to open weak, tracking GIFT Nifty losses, Asian stocks, currencies fall on Middle East tensions, Oil prices surge above $100 as US plans blockade of Iranian ports

* Sensex and Nifty likely to open weak, tracking GIFT Nifty losses
* Asian stocks, currencies fall on Middle East tensions
* Oil prices surge above $100 as US plans blockade of Iranian ports

Indian equity markets may open weak on April 13, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty and global market declines amid US-Iran tensions. Oil prices surged, gold slipped, and foreign investors turned net buyers after 27 sessions of selling.

shorts/business/first-tick-top-global-cues-to-watch-in-today-s-trade-133

Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see weak start today, April 13, tracking losses in GIFT Nifty, which was trading around the 23,763 level.

Track the latest updates on GIFT Nifty right here on Moneycontrol.

After a weak closing in the previous session, the Indian equity indices rebounded strongly on April 10, ending with solid gains, supported by positive global cues amid easing geopolitical concerns.

At close, the Sensex was up 918.60 points or 1.20 percent at 77,550.25, and the Nifty was up 275.50 points or 1.16 percent at 24,050.60.

Here is how financial markets across the globe fared overnight:

GIFT Nifty (Slips)

GIFT Nifty was trading with lower at around 23,763, indicating a negative start for the Indian equity markets.

Asian Equities (Down)

Asian indices were trading lower in the early Monday trade, as investors weigh a U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s ports after talks between Washington and Tehran failed to produce an agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East.



US Equities (Mixed)

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with investors ​pressing pause as they headed into the weekend and kept an eye on ongoing Middle East peace negotiations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 269.23 points, or 0.56%, to 47,916.57, the S&amp;amp;P 500 lost 7.77 points, or 0.11%, to 6,816.89 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 80.48 points, or 0.35%, to 22,902.89.



Dollar Index (Up)

The dollar strengthened to the highest level in a week in a broad rally against most of its peers in early Asian trade on Monday as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down nL1N40U07M and the U.S. Navy prepared a blockade of Iranian ports.



US Bond Yield (Gains)

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury and 2-year U.S. Treasury jumped more than 3 basis points each at 4.34% and 3.83%, respectively.



Asian Currencies (Down)

Asian currencies were trading mostly lower in the early trade on Monday with Thai Baht leading the losers followed by Philippine Peso, South Korean Won, Singapore Dollar.



Crude (Rises)

Oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel on Monday as the U.S. Navy prepared a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that could restrict Iranian oil shipments after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war.



Gold (Slips)

Gold tumbled on mounting inflation concerns, after US-Iran peace talks ended without resolution and American plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz deepened a global energy- supply shock.



Fund Flow Action

After remaining net sellers for the past 27 trading sessions, foreign investors (FIIs/FPIs) turned net buyers for the first time since February 25, purchasing equities worth ₹672 crore on April 10. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying streak, investing ₹410 crore.



Hope you're all set for today's trade. We wish you a profitable day ahead.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

First Tick: Top global cues to watch in today’s trade

Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE Updates: After a weak start, Indian benchmark indices erased some of the early losses with Nifty trading above 23700. All the sectoral indices are trading in the red with PSU bank, Private Bank, energy, oil &amp;amp;gas, realty down 1-2%. India Volatility index rises more than 10% at 20.8, while Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices shed 1% each.

Sensex Today | Stock Market Live: Sensex slips 1,000 pts, Nifty below 23,750; Eicher Motors, Maruti Suzuki, IndiGo top losers

5 out of 5 years Nifty Microcap 250 has given positive returns in April.

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - Nifty Microcap 250

Net Contribution

MC TechnicalsPRO

Pivot levels

Seasonality analysis

News

Moving Averages
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages Crossovers