Nifty Microcap 250

The Nifty 50 maintained its upward journey for the fifth straight session, continuing its higher high–higher low structure, and ended with moderate gains on Tuesday. According to experts, if the index decisively surpasses the 25,900–26,000 range in the upcoming sessions — given the healthy technical and momentum indicators — a rally toward the 26,200–26,300 zone is possible. However, support is placed at 25,700. Meanwhile, as long as the Bank Nifty sustains above the 57,800 support level, the index is likely to march toward the 58,500–59,000 zone, with 60,000 being a crucial resistance level, experts said.

On October 21, the Nifty 50 hit a day's high of 25,934 and a low of 25,826, before closing 25 points higher at 25,869, while the Bank Nifty finished at 58,007, down 26 points after seeing an intraday high of 58,156 and a low of 57,887. The market breadth remained in favour of bulls, as about 2,187 shares advanced against 578 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty maintained its uptrend during the Muhurat trading session, although the range remained narrow due to the shortened trading hours. Overall sentiment stayed positive, with the index holding above the key 21 EMA. The RSI has moved into a strong momentum zone, suggesting further strength ahead. In the near term, the index could advance towards 26,000–26,200, while immediate support is seen at 25,700.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200

Key Support: 25,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty October 25,900 strike Call at Rs 116, with a stop-loss of Rs 90, targeting Rs 155.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

The Nifty is trading at a one-year high level. Now we are inching closer toward the 26,000 mark, after which minor profit booking is expected following more than an 800-point rally in just one week. As we enter the monthly F&amp;O expiry week, we can expect volatility to be on the higher side. In the recent rally, NBFCs and banks are outperforming sectors, so one can look for buying opportunities on dips in them. Also, FIIs are back in buying mode, which is supporting overall sentiments.

On the hourly chart, since October 15, almost every candle has protected the prior candle’s low on a closing basis except for one instance, which suggests strength in the ongoing trend.

Key Resistance: 26,100

Key Support: 25,650

Strategy: Use dips as a buying opportunity with a stop-loss of Rs 25,730, targeting 26,000 followed by 26,100 levels.

&nbsp;

Arun Kumar Mantri, Founder of Mantri FinMart

Nifty is in a strong bull run, trading well above the key support zones of 25,500–25,600 on the lower side, with firm underlying strength. The ongoing trend of the index is bullish, though some profit booking cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp up move.

Any dips towards 25,650–25,700 will be a good buying opportunity for short-term traders. Overall, we expect the markets to consolidate with a strong bullish bias in the broad range of 25,700–26,200 for the short-term time frame with a positive bias.

Key Resistance: 26,050, 26,180

Key Support: 25,700, 25,750

Strategy: Short-term traders can adopt a “buy on dips” approach in the markets towards 25,700 (spot levels), keeping a strict stop-loss below 25,600, targeting 26,050 and 26,150 levels.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Bank Nifty has outperformed since the start of October 2025 by taking the lead compared to the Nifty and has made a lifetime high near 58,261 levels. In this rally, PSU banks were the top contributors, with State Bank of India acting as a showstopper. Now, private banks have started gearing up and are getting ready to enter the party, which is a positive sign.

Over the past 9 trading sessions, prices have protected the prior day’s low on a closing basis, which is a strong bullish sign. Post sharp rally, chances of profit booking cannot be ruled out, which will also give time for RSI to cool down.

Key Resistance: 58,500

Key Support: 57,300

Strategy: Use dips as a buying opportunity in Bank Nifty with a target of 58,300 followed by 58,500, with a stop-loss of 57,600 level.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Bank Nifty remained subdued as limited trading activity during the shortened session kept volatility in check. However, the overall trend remains strong, with the potential to rise towards 58,500 and higher in the short term.

From a medium-term perspective, the weekly chart indicates a breakout from the previous swing high, which could take the index towards 61,000 in the next 1–3 months. In the coming days, any dips are likely to be bought into. Support is placed at 57,500–57,700 in the short term, below which the index may lose momentum.

Key Resistance: 58,500, 58,800

Key Support: 57,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty October 58,200 strike Call above Rs 200, with a stop-loss of Rs 140, targeting Rs 340.

Arun Kumar Mantri, Founder of Mantri FinMart

Bank Nifty has been one of the key bullish performers in the recent past and is now trading at fresh time highs after the recent strong up move. In the short term, any minor pullbacks should be used as a buying opportunity for short-term long trades, with a stop-loss placed below support zones. The support for the index is around 57,400–57,450, while 58,350–58,450 will be the next resistance zones for the next 2–3 sessions.

Key Resistance: 58,450, 58,500

Key Support: 57,400, 57,450

Strategy: Aggressive traders may go long in the Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 58,100–58,200, keeping a strict stop-loss below 57,800, for the targets of 58,900–59,000 plus on the higher side.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50 bulls hold fort for a sixth straight session, Bank Nifty break Monday’s peak?

The Nifty 50 maintained its upward journey for the fifth straight session, continuing its higher high–higher low structure, and ended with moderate gains on Tuesday. According to experts, if the index decisively surpasses the 25,900–26,000 range in the upcoming sessions — given the healthy technical and momentum indicators — a rally toward the 26,200–26,300 zone is possible. However, support is placed at 25,700. Meanwhile, as long as the Bank Nifty sustains above the 57,800 support level, the index is likely to march toward the 58,500–59,000 zone, with 60,000 being a crucial resistance level, experts said.

On October 21, the Nifty 50 hit a day's high of 25,934 and a low of 25,826, before closing 25 points higher at 25,869, while the Bank Nifty finished at 58,007, down 26 points after seeing an intraday high of 58,156 and a low of 57,887. The market breadth remained in favour of bulls, as about 2,187 shares advanced against 578 declining shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty maintained its uptrend during the Muhurat trading session, although the range remained narrow due to the shortened trading hours. Overall sentiment stayed positive, with the index holding above the key 21 EMA. The RSI has moved into a strong momentum zone, suggesting further strength ahead. In the near term, the index could advance towards 26,000–26,200, while immediate support is seen at 25,700.

Key Resistance: 26,000, 26,200

Key Support: 25,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty October 25,900 strike Call at Rs 116, with a stop-loss of Rs 90, targeting Rs 155.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

The Nifty is trading at a one-year high level. Now we are inching closer toward the 26,000 mark, after which minor profit booking is expected following more than an 800-point rally in just one week. As we enter the monthly F&amp;amp;O expiry week, we can expect volatility to be on the higher side. In the recent rally, NBFCs and banks are outperforming sectors, so one can look for buying opportunities on dips in them. Also, FIIs are back in buying mode, which is supporting overall sentiments.

On the hourly chart, since October 15, almost every candle has protected the prior candle’s low on a closing basis except for one instance, which suggests strength in the ongoing trend.

Key Resistance: 26,100

Key Support: 25,650

Strategy: Use dips as a buying opportunity with a stop-loss of Rs 25,730, targeting 26,000 followed by 26,100 levels.

&amp;nbsp;

Arun Kumar Mantri, Founder of Mantri FinMart

Nifty is in a strong bull run, trading well above the key support zones of 25,500–25,600 on the lower side, with firm underlying strength. The ongoing trend of the index is bullish, though some profit booking cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp up move.

Any dips towards 25,650–25,700 will be a good buying opportunity for short-term traders. Overall, we expect the markets to consolidate with a strong bullish bias in the broad range of 25,700–26,200 for the short-term time frame with a positive bias.

Key Resistance: 26,050, 26,180

Key Support: 25,700, 25,750

Strategy: Short-term traders can adopt a “buy on dips” approach in the markets towards 25,700 (spot levels), keeping a strict stop-loss below 25,600, targeting 26,050 and 26,150 levels.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

Bank Nifty has outperformed since the start of October 2025 by taking the lead compared to the Nifty and has made a lifetime high near 58,261 levels. In this rally, PSU banks were the top contributors, with State Bank of India acting as a showstopper. Now, private banks have started gearing up and are getting ready to enter the party, which is a positive sign.

Over the past 9 trading sessions, prices have protected the prior day’s low on a closing basis, which is a strong bullish sign. Post sharp rally, chances of profit booking cannot be ruled out, which will also give time for RSI to cool down.

Key Resistance: 58,500

Key Support: 57,300

Strategy: Use dips as a buying opportunity in Bank Nifty with a target of 58,300 followed by 58,500, with a stop-loss of 57,600 level.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Bank Nifty remained subdued as limited trading activity during the shortened session kept volatility in check. However, the overall trend remains strong, with the potential to rise towards 58,500 and higher in the short term.

From a medium-term perspective, the weekly chart indicates a breakout from the previous swing high, which could take the index towards 61,000 in the next 1–3 months. In the coming days, any dips are likely to be bought into. Support is placed at 57,500–57,700 in the short term, below which the index may lose momentum.

Key Resistance: 58,500, 58,800

Key Support: 57,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty October 58,200 strike Call above Rs 200, with a stop-loss of Rs 140, targeting Rs 340.

Arun Kumar Mantri, Founder of Mantri FinMart

Bank Nifty has been one of the key bullish performers in the recent past and is now trading at fresh time highs after the recent strong up move. In the short term, any minor pullbacks should be used as a buying opportunity for short-term long trades, with a stop-loss placed below support zones. The support for the index is around 57,400–57,450, while 58,350–58,450 will be the next resistance zones for the next 2–3 sessions.

Key Resistance: 58,450, 58,500

Key Support: 57,400, 57,450

Strategy: Aggressive traders may go long in the Bank Nifty Futures on dips around 58,100–58,200, keeping a strict stop-loss below 57,800, for the targets of 58,900–59,000 plus on the higher side.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The market continued its upward journey for the fifth consecutive day on October 21, closing 25 points higher amid volatility with a healthy market breadth. The technical and momentum indicators remained quite strong, with a consistent higher high-higher low structure, even after a significant rally since the start of the current month. Hence, the index is expected to face a hurdle at 26,000, as decisively surpassing this level could open the door for a move to 26,200-26,300 (which coincides with the record high of 26,277 seen in September 2024) in the upcoming sessions, provided the index defends support in the 25,750-25,700 zone, according to experts.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627690 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172006_Image1121102025.jpg" alt="Image1121102025" width="1281" height="646" />

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-50-9.html" target="_blank">Nifty 50</a> (25,869)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,918, 25,943, and 25,985

Support based on pivot points: 25,835, 25,809, and 25,768

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, indicating volatility, but remained at the upper Bollinger Band. The index maintained its higher high-higher low structure, with all key moving averages trending northward. The RSI, at 72.26, and the MACD sustained their upward momentum, with the histogram strengthening. All this indicates continued positive sentiment.

2) Key Levels For The <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/indian-indices/nifty-bank-23.html" target="_blank">Bank Nifty</a> (58,007)

Resistance based on pivot points: 58,119, 58,183, and 58,285

Support based on pivot points: 57,914, 57,851, and 57,748

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 58,735, 60,142

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 57,152, 56,466

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also traded near the upper Bollinger Band, though it formed a small bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe within the previous day's range. All key moving averages trended upward, while the RSI remained well above the 70 mark, at 76.17. The MACD continued its northward trajectory, with the histogram staying above the zero line. This suggests sustained positive momentum.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627692 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172106_Image1221102025.jpg" alt="Image1221102025" width="1281" height="646" />

3) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,000 strike (with 1.09 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 26,500 strike (93.18 lakh contracts), and the 25,900 strike (72.62 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 26,400 strike, which saw an addition of 35.07 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,900 and 26,000 strikes, which added 19.27 lakh and 16.39 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 25,500 strike, which shed 1.39 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,650 and 25,600 strikes, which shed 84,900 and 42,825 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627693 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172133_Image1421102025.jpg" alt="Image1421102025" width="1251" height="345" />

4) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 95.97 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 25,200 strike (69.72 lakh contracts) and the 25,700 strike (64.7 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,500 strike, which saw an addition of 21.31 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,900 and 25,600 strikes, which added 17.49 lakh and 14.66 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Put unwinding seen in the 25,200-26,600 strike band.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627695 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172158_Image1521102025.jpg" alt="Image1521102025" width="1248" height="347" />

5) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Call Options Data</a>

According to the monthly options data, the 57,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 17.23 lakh contracts. This can act as a key level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 58,000 strike (16.8 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (11.19 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 58,000 strike (with the addition of 1.78 lakh contracts), followed by the 58,100 (63,105 contracts) and 59,700 strike (47,565 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 58,500 strike, which shed 96,530 contracts, followed by the 58,800 and 57,000 strikes, which shed 57,260 and 42,280 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627696 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172220_Image1621102025.jpg" alt="Image1621102025" width="1254" height="341" />

6) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Bank Nifty Put Options Data</a>

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 57,000 strike (with 20.06 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 56,000 strike (14.99 lakh contracts) and the 58,000 strike (9.39 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 57,500 strike (which added 1.5 lakh contracts), followed by the 56,000 strike (47,425 contracts) and the 56,100 strike (34,965 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 57,000 strike which shed 2.07 lakh contracts, followed by the 58,500 and 56,900 strikes, which shed 15,330 and 12,460 contracts, respectively.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627697 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172241_Image1721102025.jpg" alt="Image1721102025" width="1249" height="344" />

7) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Funds Flow (Rs crore)</a>

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627698 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172301_Image1821102025.jpg" alt="Image1821102025" width="1062" height="389" />

8) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Put-Call Ratio</a>

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, declined to 1.08 on October 21, compared to 1.15 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627699 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172323_Image1921102025.jpg" alt="Image1921102025" width="1229" height="499" />

9) India VIX

The India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, remained near its lower zone despite trading above short- and medium-term moving averages. It fell 0.51 percent on Tuesday to 11.30, signaling comfort for bulls.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627706 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022172612_Image2521102025.jpg" alt="Image2521102025" width="1281" height="646" />

10) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Build-up (53 Stocks)</a>

A long build-up was seen in 53 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627765 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022201128_Image2621102025.jpg" alt="Image2621102025" width="1944" height="1944" />

11) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Long Unwinding (55 Stocks)</a>

55 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627766 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022201208_Image2721102025.jpg" alt="Image2721102025" width="1944" height="1978" />

12) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short Build-up (79 Stocks)</a>

79 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627767 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022201243_Image2821102025.jpg" alt="Image2821102025" width="1944" height="1954" />

13) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Short-Covering (23 Stocks)</a>

23 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627769 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022201320_Image2921102025.jpg" alt="Image2921102025" width="1944" height="1976" />

14) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">High Delivery Trades</a>

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13627770 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251022201358_Image3021102025.jpg" alt="Image3021102025" width="1944" height="1994" />

15) <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/markets/fno-market-snapshot" target="_blank">Stocks Under F&amp;O Ban</a>

Securities banned under the F&amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;O ban: Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Trade setup for October 23: Top 15 things to know before the opening bells

The market continued its upward journey for the fifth consecutive day on October 21, closing 25 points higher amid volatility with a healthy market breadth. The technical and momentum indicators remained quite strong, with a consistent higher high-higher low structure, even after a significant rally since the start of the current month. Hence, the index is expected to face a hurdle at 26,000, as decisively surpassing this level could open the door for a move to 26,200-26,300 (which coincides with the record high of 26,277 seen in September 2024) in the upcoming sessions, provided the index defends support in the 25,750-25,700 zone, according to experts.



Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (25,869)

Resistance based on pivot points: 25,918, 25,943, and 25,985

Support based on pivot points: 25,835, 25,809, and 25,768

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily charts, indicating volatility, but remained at the upper Bollinger Band. The index maintained its higher high-higher low structure, with all key moving averages trending northward. The RSI, at 72.26, and the MACD sustained their upward momentum, with the histogram strengthening. All this indicates continued positive sentiment.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (58,007)

Resistance based on pivot points: 58,119, 58,183, and 58,285

Support based on pivot points: 57,914, 57,851, and 57,748

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 58,735, 60,142

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 57,152, 56,466

Special Formation: The Bank Nifty also traded near the upper Bollinger Band, though it formed a small bearish candle with minor upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe within the previous day's range. All key moving averages trended upward, while the RSI remained well above the 70 mark, at 76.17. The MACD continued its northward trajectory, with the histogram staying above the zero line. This suggests sustained positive momentum.



3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,000 strike (with 1.09 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 26,500 strike (93.18 lakh contracts), and the 25,900 strike (72.62 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 26,400 strike, which saw an addition of 35.07 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,900 and 26,000 strikes, which added 19.27 lakh and 16.39 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 25,500 strike, which shed 1.39 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,650 and 25,600 strikes, which shed 84,900 and 42,825 contracts, respectively.



4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 95.97 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 25,200 strike (69.72 lakh contracts) and the 25,700 strike (64.7 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 25,500 strike, which saw an addition of 21.31 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,900 and 25,600 strikes, which added 17.49 lakh and 14.66 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Put unwinding seen in the 25,200-26,600 strike band.



5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 57,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest, with 17.23 lakh contracts. This can act as a key level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 58,000 strike (16.8 lakh contracts) and the 59,000 strike (11.19 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 58,000 strike (with the addition of 1.78 lakh contracts), followed by the 58,100 (63,105 contracts) and 59,700 strike (47,565 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 58,500 strike, which shed 96,530 contracts, followed by the 58,800 and 57,000 strikes, which shed 57,260 and 42,280 contracts, respectively.



6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 57,000 strike (with 20.06 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 56,000 strike (14.99 lakh contracts) and the 58,000 strike (9.39 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 57,500 strike (which added 1.5 lakh contracts), followed by the 56,000 strike (47,425 contracts) and the 56,100 strike (34,965 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 57,000 strike which shed 2.07 lakh contracts, followed by the 58,500 and 56,900 strikes, which shed 15,330 and 12,460 contracts, respectively.



7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)



8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, declined to 1.08 on October 21, compared to 1.15 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.



9) India VIX

The India VIX, also known as the fear gauge, remained near its lower zone despite trading above short- and medium-term moving averages. It fell 0.51 percent on Tuesday to 11.30, signaling comfort for bulls.



10) Long Build-up (53 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 53 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.



11) Long Unwinding (55 Stocks)

55 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.



12) Short Build-up (79 Stocks)

79 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.



13) Short-Covering (23 Stocks)

23 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.



14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.



15) Stocks Under F&amp;amp;O Ban

Securities banned under the F&amp;amp;O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&amp;amp;O ban: Sammaan Capital

Stocks removed from F&amp;amp;O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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According to Prashant Shah, the Co-Founder of Definedge, the metal and defence sectors could surprise the market participants in Samvat 2082.

The Metal Index is showing an interesting ‘W’ pattern and a P&amp;F chart ‘Pattern Retest’ formation near the bottom, suggesting that the sector could continue its momentum phase, while the chart structure defence sector remains bullish, he reasoned.

Prashant Shah sees Nifty at 27,400 in the short term and beyond 30,000 in medium term. "The broader setup doesn’t suggest a major downside at this point, though short-term periodic technical corrections are natural and even healthy for the index," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Do you think mid- and small-cap stocks will gain favour over large-caps in the new Samvat?

From the bottom formed in March 2020 to the peak in September 2021, the Nifty 50 Index rallied by around 200 percent. During the same period, the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index surged by approximately 475 percent, and the Nifty Midcap 150 Index gained around 397 percent — clearly showing stronger momentum in the broader market segment.

Since then, or roughly during Vikram Samvat 2081, the Nifty 50 has remained largely flat, while the Smallcap and Midcap indices have seen some correction. But when we observe their ratio charts with Nifty, the long-term trend of outperformance remains intact.

The structure still looks positive. The charts indicate a major long-term breakout, and I believe mid- and small-cap stocks are well-poised to regain strength. A selective, stock-specific approach in this space could work well in the new Samvat.

Do you rule out any major downside for the market from here on, and do you expect the Nifty 50 to hit 30,000 in the new year?

On the Point &amp; Figure (P&amp;F) charts, the Nifty has broken above all major bearish trendlines drawn from previous significant tops. When price enters this zone, I like to call it a “new territory” — a phase where indices often sustain momentum and keep making new highs as long as the structure remains intact.

Currently, the P&amp;F patterns are bullish, with short-term vertical targets around 26,420 and 27,400, and medium-term counts extending beyond 30,000. While I don’t focus on specific levels or timelines, the chart structure clearly indicates a continuation of the uptrend.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13626683 aligncenter" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251021212851_Image1021102025.jpg" alt="Image1021102025" width="1600" height="803" />

While short-term periodic technical corrections are natural and even healthy, the broader setup doesn’t suggest a major downside at this point. A range-bound phase could occur in the interim, but a stock-specific approach should continue to deliver outperformance as the market gradually works its way higher.

Is the Sensex poised to reach the 1 lakh mark in Samvat 2082?

Both Nifty and Sensex chart structures remain bullish. On the Point &amp; Figure charts, the medium-term bullish vertical counts for Sensex are still open, indicating potential for further upside in the coming phases.

Whether the 1 lakh mark is achieved within Samvat 2082 or slightly beyond is secondary — what matters is that the underlying structure continues to support the long-term uptrend. Broad range-bound movements are also a possibility in such phases, and a stock-specific approach with a focus on momentum and strength is likely to be the most effective strategy.

Are the charts suggesting that a new bull run is beginning in the banking index?

Yes, the Bank Index has regained strong momentum. A bullish ABC pattern was completed in May 2025, and the recent anchor column breakout is acting as a solid follow-through confirmation of that structure.

While short-term consolidation or minor corrections cannot be ruled out, the overall chart formation remains bullish. The setup indicates continuation of upward momentum in the coming period. Within the space, PSU banks, in particular, are showing strong relative strength and appear well-positioned to perform in the coming time.

After studying various technical indicators, which one is your favourite and why?

Any indicator — or even a combination of them — ultimately reflects a price setup. I consider myself more of a price pattern practitioner, focusing on noiseless charts to uncover hidden formations and follow objective, rule-based setups.

That said, I strongly recommend tracking Relative Strength and Breadth indicators. Together, they reflect Price, Performance (RS), and Participation (Breadth) — three key dimensions that offer a clear and comprehensive perspective on market trends and momentum.

My approach is to identify and ride momentum, adapting the stance as instruments change, without any preconceived bias.

Chart analysis helps us understand direction, but only systematic and disciplined execution leads to consistent success in the markets.

Which two sectors are on your radar for the new Samvat, and what is your rationale behind them?

The Auto and Auto Ancillary sectors are showing strong bullish structures on the charts. Both have been in steady uptrends, supported by improving price patterns and strong relative strength.

Additionally, mid- and small-sized financial services companies are displaying constructive setups. Their ratio charts against the broader indices are indicating continued momentum and relative outperformance.

Both these sectors are backed by structural strength rather than short-term moves, suggesting potential of outperformance in the new Samvat.

Will gold and silver, the favourites of Samvat 2081, continue their strong double-digit growth in Samvat 2082?

Yes, there is a strong possibility that the bullish trend in gold and silver will continue in Samvat 2082. After extended uptrends, price and time corrections are natural and healthy for sustaining momentum.

The chart formations remain positive, indicating that the underlying bullish structure is intact. As long as prices hold their higher swing supports, the trend is expected to extend further in the coming year.

In technical terms, healthy consolidation strengthens the foundation of a trend — and that seems to be the case with gold and silver as we enter the new Samvat.

Which sectors do you think could surprise market participants in Samvat 2082?

The Metal Index is showing an interesting ‘W’ pattern and a P&amp;F chart ‘Pattern Retest’ formation near the bottom. This setup is supported by a bullish reversal and the negation of prior bearish formations, suggesting that the sector could continue its momentum phase and offer follow-through opportunities ahead.

Another space that could surprise is the Defence sector. After a strong rally earlier this year, it has undergone a healthy consolidation over the past few months. The chart structure remains bullish, with a strong anchor column at the base and signs of trend reversal emerging once again.

Both sectors display structural strength beneath temporary corrections, indicating that momentum may re-emerge and catch many participants by surprise in Samvat 2082.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist Talk: Metal, defence to surprise in Samvat 2082? Prashant Shah sees Nifty in new territory

According to Prashant Shah, the Co-Founder of Definedge, the metal and defence sectors could surprise the market participants in Samvat 2082.

The Metal Index is showing an interesting ‘W’ pattern and a P&amp;amp;F chart ‘Pattern Retest’ formation near the bottom, suggesting that the sector could continue its momentum phase, while the chart structure defence sector remains bullish, he reasoned.

Prashant Shah sees Nifty at 27,400 in the short term and beyond 30,000 in medium term. &quot;The broader setup doesn’t suggest a major downside at this point, though short-term periodic technical corrections are natural and even healthy for the index,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Do you think mid- and small-cap stocks will gain favour over large-caps in the new Samvat?

From the bottom formed in March 2020 to the peak in September 2021, the Nifty 50 Index rallied by around 200 percent. During the same period, the Nifty Smallcap 250 Index surged by approximately 475 percent, and the Nifty Midcap 150 Index gained around 397 percent — clearly showing stronger momentum in the broader market segment.

Since then, or roughly during Vikram Samvat 2081, the Nifty 50 has remained largely flat, while the Smallcap and Midcap indices have seen some correction. But when we observe their ratio charts with Nifty, the long-term trend of outperformance remains intact.

The structure still looks positive. The charts indicate a major long-term breakout, and I believe mid- and small-cap stocks are well-poised to regain strength. A selective, stock-specific approach in this space could work well in the new Samvat.

Do you rule out any major downside for the market from here on, and do you expect the Nifty 50 to hit 30,000 in the new year?

On the Point &amp;amp; Figure (P&amp;amp;F) charts, the Nifty has broken above all major bearish trendlines drawn from previous significant tops. When price enters this zone, I like to call it a “new territory” — a phase where indices often sustain momentum and keep making new highs as long as the structure remains intact.

Currently, the P&amp;amp;F patterns are bullish, with short-term vertical targets around 26,420 and 27,400, and medium-term counts extending beyond 30,000. While I don’t focus on specific levels or timelines, the chart structure clearly indicates a continuation of the uptrend.



While short-term periodic technical corrections are natural and even healthy, the broader setup doesn’t suggest a major downside at this point. A range-bound phase could occur in the interim, but a stock-specific approach should continue to deliver outperformance as the market gradually works its way higher.

Is the Sensex poised to reach the 1 lakh mark in Samvat 2082?

Both Nifty and Sensex chart structures remain bullish. On the Point &amp;amp; Figure charts, the medium-term bullish vertical counts for Sensex are still open, indicating potential for further upside in the coming phases.

Whether the 1 lakh mark is achieved within Samvat 2082 or slightly beyond is secondary — what matters is that the underlying structure continues to support the long-term uptrend. Broad range-bound movements are also a possibility in such phases, and a stock-specific approach with a focus on momentum and strength is likely to be the most effective strategy.

Are the charts suggesting that a new bull run is beginning in the banking index?

Yes, the Bank Index has regained strong momentum. A bullish ABC pattern was completed in May 2025, and the recent anchor column breakout is acting as a solid follow-through confirmation of that structure.

While short-term consolidation or minor corrections cannot be ruled out, the overall chart formation remains bullish. The setup indicates continuation of upward momentum in the coming period. Within the space, PSU banks, in particular, are showing strong relative strength and appear well-positioned to perform in the coming time.

After studying various technical indicators, which one is your favourite and why?

Any indicator — or even a combination of them — ultimately reflects a price setup. I consider myself more of a price pattern practitioner, focusing on noiseless charts to uncover hidden formations and follow objective, rule-based setups.

That said, I strongly recommend tracking Relative Strength and Breadth indicators. Together, they reflect Price, Performance (RS), and Participation (Breadth) — three key dimensions that offer a clear and comprehensive perspective on market trends and momentum.

My approach is to identify and ride momentum, adapting the stance as instruments change, without any preconceived bias.

Chart analysis helps us understand direction, but only systematic and disciplined execution leads to consistent success in the markets.

Which two sectors are on your radar for the new Samvat, and what is your rationale behind them?

The Auto and Auto Ancillary sectors are showing strong bullish structures on the charts. Both have been in steady uptrends, supported by improving price patterns and strong relative strength.

Additionally, mid- and small-sized financial services companies are displaying constructive setups. Their ratio charts against the broader indices are indicating continued momentum and relative outperformance.

Both these sectors are backed by structural strength rather than short-term moves, suggesting potential of outperformance in the new Samvat.

Will gold and silver, the favourites of Samvat 2081, continue their strong double-digit growth in Samvat 2082?

Yes, there is a strong possibility that the bullish trend in gold and silver will continue in Samvat 2082. After extended uptrends, price and time corrections are natural and healthy for sustaining momentum.

The chart formations remain positive, indicating that the underlying bullish structure is intact. As long as prices hold their higher swing supports, the trend is expected to extend further in the coming year.

In technical terms, healthy consolidation strengthens the foundation of a trend — and that seems to be the case with gold and silver as we enter the new Samvat.

Which sectors do you think could surprise market participants in Samvat 2082?

The Metal Index is showing an interesting ‘W’ pattern and a P&amp;amp;F chart ‘Pattern Retest’ formation near the bottom. This setup is supported by a bullish reversal and the negation of prior bearish formations, suggesting that the sector could continue its momentum phase and offer follow-through opportunities ahead.

Another space that could surprise is the Defence sector. After a strong rally earlier this year, it has undergone a healthy consolidation over the past few months. The chart structure remains bullish, with a strong anchor column at the base and signs of trend reversal emerging once again.

Both sectors display structural strength beneath temporary corrections, indicating that momentum may re-emerge and catch many participants by surprise in Samvat 2082.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The Nifty index extended its winning streak for the fifth straight session on October 21, sustaining a firm bullish tone ahead of the monthly expiry. The index closed the Muhurat trading session at 25,868.60 with moderate gains. It continued to demonstrate impressive resilience and robust follow-through buying, with every minor dip being swiftly absorbed by participants. Trading well above its breakout neckline, the index has reaffirmed its dominant uptrend and solidified its bullish chart structure.

Technical Overview

From a broader technical standpoint, the index remains entrenched in a well-established higher-high, higher-low formation, underscoring persistent bullish control. The recent breakout above the 25,650 level has created a strong foundation, transforming former resistance zones into reliable support. The 25,650–25,700 zone now acts as a critical “buy-on-dips” region, reinforced by multiple technical confluences, including the breakout neckline and prior swing lows.

While the underlying momentum remains strong, the index appears slightly overextended on shorter timeframes, indicating early signs of momentum fatigue. A brief consolidation or shallow retracement cannot be ruled out, which may provide fresh entry opportunities for traders. Despite this, momentum indicators continue to favour the bulls — the RSI (14) remains elevated above 70, reflecting underlying strength and sustained buying appetite.

On the higher side, the 25,900–26,000 band stands as a pivotal resistance zone, coinciding with a prior supply region and substantial options concentration. A decisive breakout above 26,000 could ignite the next leg of the rally, potentially propelling the index towards 26,250–26,300 in the near term. Conversely, any dip toward 25,600–25,700 is likely to attract renewed accumulation, thereby keeping the overall market tone constructive.

Derivatives Snapshot

The derivatives setup portrays a mood of measured optimism among traders as the market heads into the monthly expiry. Open interest data indicates a balanced mix of long and short build-ups, suggesting expectations of a range-bound yet upward-biased movement in the short term.

Substantial Call open interest (OI) of 1.50 lakh contracts at the 26,000 strike highlights a significant resistance barrier, while notable Put OI of 1.28 lakh contracts at the 25,500 strike provides firm downside support. This configuration implies that the index may continue to oscillate within the 25,500–26,000 range before a clear directional breakout emerges.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) eased to 0.89 from 1.03, indicating cautious sentiment and the likelihood of minor profit-booking after recent gains. Nevertheless, strong Put additions near 25,500, coupled with steady Call unwinding at higher levels, reflect traders’ confidence in the ongoing uptrend. Dips continue to appear more attractive for accumulation than initiating fresh long positions at elevated levels.

Market Outlook for Expiry Week

As Nifty enters the final stretch of the October derivatives series, the broader outlook remains decisively bullish. Strong rollover activity, consistent Put writing at lower strikes, and sustained buying momentum indicate that downside risks are limited in the near term.

As long as the index holds above 25,600, the medium-term trend remains intact, and every decline is likely to witness fresh buying interest. A break and sustained close above 26,000 could trigger renewed long positions and short-covering, driving the index towards 26,300. Conversely, a dip below 25,600 might lead to short-lived profit-taking but is unlikely to disrupt the prevailing bullish trend.

In conclusion, the Nifty remains firmly positioned in a “buy-on-dips” setup heading into the monthly expiry, with sentiment tilted positively. The 25,600–26,000 range will be critical in determining the next directional move, and a breakout above 26,000 could mark the beginning of the next leg of rally.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Dhupesh Dhameja is the Derivatives Analyst at Samco Securities.

All eyes on 26,000: Nifty’s breakout zone could decide the market’s next leg

The Nifty index extended its winning streak for the fifth straight session on October 21, sustaining a firm bullish tone ahead of the monthly expiry. The index closed the Muhurat trading session at 25,868.60 with moderate gains. It continued to demonstrate impressive resilience and robust follow-through buying, with every minor dip being swiftly absorbed by participants. Trading well above its breakout neckline, the index has reaffirmed its dominant uptrend and solidified its bullish chart structure.

Technical Overview

From a broader technical standpoint, the index remains entrenched in a well-established higher-high, higher-low formation, underscoring persistent bullish control. The recent breakout above the 25,650 level has created a strong foundation, transforming former resistance zones into reliable support. The 25,650–25,700 zone now acts as a critical “buy-on-dips” region, reinforced by multiple technical confluences, including the breakout neckline and prior swing lows.

While the underlying momentum remains strong, the index appears slightly overextended on shorter timeframes, indicating early signs of momentum fatigue. A brief consolidation or shallow retracement cannot be ruled out, which may provide fresh entry opportunities for traders. Despite this, momentum indicators continue to favour the bulls — the RSI (14) remains elevated above 70, reflecting underlying strength and sustained buying appetite.

On the higher side, the 25,900–26,000 band stands as a pivotal resistance zone, coinciding with a prior supply region and substantial options concentration. A decisive breakout above 26,000 could ignite the next leg of the rally, potentially propelling the index towards 26,250–26,300 in the near term. Conversely, any dip toward 25,600–25,700 is likely to attract renewed accumulation, thereby keeping the overall market tone constructive.

Derivatives Snapshot

The derivatives setup portrays a mood of measured optimism among traders as the market heads into the monthly expiry. Open interest data indicates a balanced mix of long and short build-ups, suggesting expectations of a range-bound yet upward-biased movement in the short term.

Substantial Call open interest (OI) of 1.50 lakh contracts at the 26,000 strike highlights a significant resistance barrier, while notable Put OI of 1.28 lakh contracts at the 25,500 strike provides firm downside support. This configuration implies that the index may continue to oscillate within the 25,500–26,000 range before a clear directional breakout emerges.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) eased to 0.89 from 1.03, indicating cautious sentiment and the likelihood of minor profit-booking after recent gains. Nevertheless, strong Put additions near 25,500, coupled with steady Call unwinding at higher levels, reflect traders’ confidence in the ongoing uptrend. Dips continue to appear more attractive for accumulation than initiating fresh long positions at elevated levels.

Market Outlook for Expiry Week

As Nifty enters the final stretch of the October derivatives series, the broader outlook remains decisively bullish. Strong rollover activity, consistent Put writing at lower strikes, and sustained buying momentum indicate that downside risks are limited in the near term.

As long as the index holds above 25,600, the medium-term trend remains intact, and every decline is likely to witness fresh buying interest. A break and sustained close above 26,000 could trigger renewed long positions and short-covering, driving the index towards 26,300. Conversely, a dip below 25,600 might lead to short-lived profit-taking but is unlikely to disrupt the prevailing bullish trend.

In conclusion, the Nifty remains firmly positioned in a “buy-on-dips” setup heading into the monthly expiry, with sentiment tilted positively. The 25,600–26,000 range will be critical in determining the next directional move, and a breakout above 26,000 could mark the beginning of the next leg of rally.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

"Very high probability that Nifty can be in the range of 29,000-30,000 by next Samvat," Vikas Khemani, Founder and CIO, Carnelian Asset Management and Advisors, said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

In the new Samvat, according to him, the biggest market surprise could be significant FII flows. "Fed rate cut will lead to flows towards emerging markets and India will be a big beneficiary of that," he said.

After nearly four years of valuation de-rating in the IT sector, he believes the sector now offers an attractive counter-opportunity. "Much of the pessimism — including concerns around AI, slowdown in IT spending, a potential US slowdown, and H-1B visa constraints — appears largely priced in," he said.

Do you believe the market could deliver around 15% returns in the new Samvat, supported by earnings growth and an economic recovery, as some experts anticipate?

Yes. There is a very high probability that the Nifty can remain in the range of 29,000-30,000 by the next Samvat. We’ve seen a combination of rate cuts, liquidity support, tax benefits, and higher government spending — all of which are positive for growth.

Lower inflation, stable interest rates, and better fiscal discipline are also creating the right conditions for sustained market levels. We continue to believe that India’s growth story is intact and that equity markets have more room to grow as earnings improve.

If you were to categorise sectors like Diwali crackers — such as bombs, sparklers, chakris, and rockets — which sectors would fall under each category, and why?

There will be lot of sparkle in the consumer discretionary &amp; auto space, banks (both private and public), pharma &amp; CDMO. Some manufacturing-oriented stocks, which took hit due to the ongoing tariff embargo, can be rocket if US deals get done.

Will global markets continue to be influenced by the 'Trump factor' in the new Samvat as well?

From a global perspective, we are in a period of readjustment of the global order. The equation between US and China will remain volatile. Everything is collateral damage in the process. The uncertainty due to the “Trump factor” will continue to play though sensitivity to some of his announcements have gone down. His policy direction on trade, tariffs, immigration, and foreign relations could drive volatility across equities, commodities, and currencies.

Do you have any contrarian bets for the new Samvat?

After nearly four years of valuation de-rating in the IT sector, we believe the IT sector now offers an attractive contra opportunity. Much of the pessimism — including concerns around AI, slowdown in IT spending, a potential US slowdown, and H-1B visa constraints — appears largely priced in.

IT sector companies continue to maintain strong margins, and large-cap names are now trading at reasonable valuations. Recent TCS, HCL Tech, LTI Mindtree results were a beat on expectation. The key missing element earlier has been earnings growth, despite robust order books.

Historically, when the business cycle is at its weakest, growth visibility is limited, negative sentiment dominates — but these are often the best times for long-term investors to find value opportunities.

Do you expect stronger momentum in earnings and economic growth in the new Samvat compared to the previous year?

Yes, earnings and economic growth are expected to gain stronger momentum in the new Samvat. Rising capex, steady government spending, improving consumption, and resilient domestic demand are likely to drive this growth. With moderating inflation and healthy corporate fundamentals, Samvat 2082 is set to see a broader and more robust recovery than the previous year.

What could be the biggest surprise for the market in the new Samvat?

The biggest market surprise in the new Samvat could be significant FII flows. Fed rates cut will lead to flows towards Emerging markets and India will be big beneficiary of that. Everything else remain same, change in FII flows can rerate markets.

What do you see as the biggest challenges for the market in the new Samvat — both on the global and domestic fronts?

Globally, US markets are at all-time high, inflation remains elevated. There could be risk for US growth. Any negative surprise from US can have global implications. Markets may face volatility from geopolitical tensions, US policy unpredictability, interest rate movements, commodity price swings, and slowdowns in major economies.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Nifty at 30,000 by next Samvat? Carnelian’s Vikas Khemani bets on IT rebound and FII flows

&quot;Very high probability that Nifty can be in the range of 29,000-30,000 by next Samvat,&quot; Vikas Khemani, Founder and CIO, Carnelian Asset Management and Advisors, said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

In the new Samvat, according to him, the biggest market surprise could be significant FII flows. &quot;Fed rate cut will lead to flows towards emerging markets and India will be a big beneficiary of that,&quot; he said.

After nearly four years of valuation de-rating in the IT sector, he believes the sector now offers an attractive counter-opportunity. &quot;Much of the pessimism — including concerns around AI, slowdown in IT spending, a potential US slowdown, and H-1B visa constraints — appears largely priced in,&quot; he said.

Do you believe the market could deliver around 15% returns in the new Samvat, supported by earnings growth and an economic recovery, as some experts anticipate?

Yes. There is a very high probability that the Nifty can remain in the range of 29,000-30,000 by the next Samvat. We’ve seen a combination of rate cuts, liquidity support, tax benefits, and higher government spending — all of which are positive for growth.

Lower inflation, stable interest rates, and better fiscal discipline are also creating the right conditions for sustained market levels. We continue to believe that India’s growth story is intact and that equity markets have more room to grow as earnings improve.

If you were to categorise sectors like Diwali crackers — such as bombs, sparklers, chakris, and rockets — which sectors would fall under each category, and why?

There will be lot of sparkle in the consumer discretionary &amp;amp; auto space, banks (both private and public), pharma &amp;amp; CDMO. Some manufacturing-oriented stocks, which took hit due to the ongoing tariff embargo, can be rocket if US deals get done.

Will global markets continue to be influenced by the 'Trump factor' in the new Samvat as well?

From a global perspective, we are in a period of readjustment of the global order. The equation between US and China will remain volatile. Everything is collateral damage in the process. The uncertainty due to the “Trump factor” will continue to play though sensitivity to some of his announcements have gone down. His policy direction on trade, tariffs, immigration, and foreign relations could drive volatility across equities, commodities, and currencies.

Do you have any contrarian bets for the new Samvat?

After nearly four years of valuation de-rating in the IT sector, we believe the IT sector now offers an attractive contra opportunity. Much of the pessimism — including concerns around AI, slowdown in IT spending, a potential US slowdown, and H-1B visa constraints — appears largely priced in.

IT sector companies continue to maintain strong margins, and large-cap names are now trading at reasonable valuations. Recent TCS, HCL Tech, LTI Mindtree results were a beat on expectation. The key missing element earlier has been earnings growth, despite robust order books.

Historically, when the business cycle is at its weakest, growth visibility is limited, negative sentiment dominates — but these are often the best times for long-term investors to find value opportunities.

Do you expect stronger momentum in earnings and economic growth in the new Samvat compared to the previous year?

Yes, earnings and economic growth are expected to gain stronger momentum in the new Samvat. Rising capex, steady government spending, improving consumption, and resilient domestic demand are likely to drive this growth. With moderating inflation and healthy corporate fundamentals, Samvat 2082 is set to see a broader and more robust recovery than the previous year.

What could be the biggest surprise for the market in the new Samvat?

The biggest market surprise in the new Samvat could be significant FII flows. Fed rates cut will lead to flows towards Emerging markets and India will be big beneficiary of that. Everything else remain same, change in FII flows can rerate markets.

What do you see as the biggest challenges for the market in the new Samvat — both on the global and domestic fronts?

Globally, US markets are at all-time high, inflation remains elevated. There could be risk for US growth. Any negative surprise from US can have global implications. Markets may face volatility from geopolitical tensions, US policy unpredictability, interest rate movements, commodity price swings, and slowdowns in major economies.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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